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KMV PDF
KMV PDF
V0
par value
default region
time
T
=
(
ln d * + µ −
V0 σˆ V2
2 )T ,
σˆ V T
40 bp
default distance
1 2 3 4 5 6
1,200 − 800
default distance, d f = = 4.
100
Among the population of all the firms with df = 4 at one point in time,
say 5,000 firms, 20 defaulted in one year. Then
20
EDF1- yr = = 0.004 = 40bp.
5,000
* KMV Credit Monitor uses a constant asset growth assumption for all firms in the
same market.
Example Federal Express
(dollars in billions of US$)
November 1997 February 1998
Market capitalization $7.9 $7.3
(price × shares outstanding)
Book liabilities $4.7 $4.9
Market value of assets $12.6 $12.2
Asset volatility 15% 17%
Default point $3.4 $3.5
Default distance 12 .6 − 3 .4 12 .2 − 3 .5
= 4 .9 = 4 .2
0 .15 × 12 .6 0 .17 × 12 .2
EDF 0 .06 %( 6 bp ) ≡ AA − 0 .11 %(11 bp ) ≡ A −
The causes of changes for an EDF are due to variations in the stock
price, debt level (leverage ratio), and asset volatility.
Key features in KMV model
1. Dynamics of EDF comes mostly from the dynamics of the equity
values.
3. Ability to adjust to the credit cycle and ability to quickly reflect any
deterioration in credit quality.
Q = risk neutral probability that the issuer defaults in one year from
now (assumed to be 20% here)
so that
LGD × Q
s= (1 + r ) = 9.6%.
1 − LGD × Q
Derivation of
the risk neutral EDFs
Let VT* be the firm value process at T under the modified risk
neutral process.
dVt*
*
= rdt + σdZ t
Vt
Q = Pr [VT* ≤ DPTT ]
σ2
= Pr ln V0 + r − T + σ T Z T ≤ ln DPTT
2
= Pr ZT ≤ −
[ (
ln DPTT + r − 2 T
V0 σ 2
)]
= N (−d 2 )
*
σ T
where
d =
*
ln V0
DPTT + r−( σ2
2 )T .
σ T
2
On the other hand, the expected default frequency under the actual
process is given by
EDFT = N (− d 2 )
( )
where
ln DPTT + µ − 2 T
V0 σ2
d2 = .
σ T
Hence, the risk neutral EDF
−1 µ −r
Q = N N ( EDFT ) + T .
σ
From CAPM, we have
ρ FM σ
µ − r = β (µ M − r ) = (µ M − r )
σM
where β = beta of the asset with the market portfolio
µM − r = market risk premium for one unit of beta risk
(to be estimated by a separate statistical process).