‘to people and objects resulting from release of hazardous materials CPR 16E First edition 1992Methods for the determination of possible damage to people and objects resulting from releases of hazardous materials CPR 16E This report, which has been prepared under the auspices of the Committee for the Prevention of Disasters caused by Dangerous Substances, is published at the request of The Director-General of Labour ‘The Director-General for Environmental Protection The Director-General for Public Order and Security ‘The Director-General for Transport The Labour Inspectorate sees this report as an “Information Sheet” issued by this Inspectorate. ‘Voorburg, December 1989 ‘The Director-General of Labour ir. AJ. RoosCIP-data of the Royal Library, The Hague ‘Methods ‘Methods for the determination of possible damage to people and objects resulting from releases of ‘hazardous materials/Committee for the Prevention of Disasters caused by dangerous substances. ‘The Hague: Directorate-General of Labour of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. II (CPR. ISSN 0921-9633; 16) ISBN 90-5307-052-4 SISO 614.3 UDC61487 ‘Subject: Hazardous materialsTNO Te Research performed by TNO - The Netherlands Organisation of Applied Scientific Research Listing of authors ‘Chapter 1. Damage caused by heat radiation (Chapter 2. The consequences of explosion effects on structures (Chapter 3. The consequences of explosion effects on humans (Chapter 4. Survey study of the products which can be released during a fire (Chapter 5. Damage caused by acute intoxication (Chapter 6. Protection against toxic substances by remaining indoors (Chapter 7. Population data I. CLE. van den Bosch, et al. = Instinte of Environmental and Energy Research iL Twit ~ Cemser of fire research I. WPM. Mex ~ Prins Maurits Laboratory I. WPM. Mex ~ Prins Maarits LaboratoryContents Introduction Damage models for the purposes of risk analysis (a framework) ‘Damage caused by heat radiation ‘The consequences of explosion effects on structures ‘The consequences of explosion effects om humans Survey stndy of the products which can be released daring a fire ‘Damage caused by acute intoxication ‘Protection against toxic substances by remaining indoors ee ‘Population dataIntroduction Extend and Limitations of the “Green Book” ‘The so-called “Green Book” hereby presented contains a number of models, the extend and limitations of which are determined by: on one side, the knowledge about the effect-damage relations which is available and, on the other side, the budget limitations for the development of this book. In a number of cases, the knowledge available, from a strictly scieatific point of view, was not sufficiently adequate to ‘provide a back-up for the models presented in the book. An example of this is the use of data about toxicity, in the effect-damage models. On the basis of suggestions provided by the researches conceming the models to be applied, and pending more information, an agreement has been reached, within the CPR (Committee for the Prevention of Disasters), regarding the modelling which is presently applicable. In general, this present book about damage models must be considered as one corresponding to the time period of the investigations. Even when it was ready to be printed, some new results of investigations became available which, in tum, permitted to provide a better understanding of some of the subjects in question. This, for example, applies to models for “toxic combustion products” ‘and to models for “damage caused by explosions”. ‘The “Green Book” has been developed under a limited budget and, due to the needs of clarity and standardization, the cost of years of research was not justified. The budget limitations, coupled with ‘time limitations, find, in the opinion of the CPR, their logical repercussions in a number of models presented. An example ofthis isthe chapter “Population data”. ‘In summary, it is the view of the CPR that this book must be regarded as a series of recommendations for the use of the damage models, and it must further be noted that for budgetary, practical and pragmatical reasons, it has sometimes recourse to generalizations over and above the specific ‘knowledge of possiblities whichis available. Neverteles, the CPR feel thatthe book properly serves the purposes of clarity and standardization related to damage models, not withstanding the fact that valid reasons remain for further expansion and revision of the models in the furure. ‘Voorburg. December 1989 ‘The chairman of the committee for the Prevention of Disasters due to Dangerous Substances IE. RomboutsDamage models for purposes of risk analysis A framework In the hereby presented book (“Green Book”), damage models are presented (also called vulnerability models) for the purpose of determining the possible damage to people and objets due to the release of dangerous substances. The use of these damage models is in general preceded by the application of the so-called effect models, An important standard reference, in this respect, in which these effect models, ‘are described, is the “Yellow book” (1). It deals with the calculation of concentrations of a given substance in the atmosphere, the calculation of heat radiation intensities and the calculation of ‘overpressures due to an explosion. All ofthe above-mentioned effects are functions of the distance to the release point. These calculated effects, with the help of the damage models, can then be applied for ‘the determination of damage which may be caused to people or objects. ‘Jointly with the book on “probabilities” (“Red Book”) (2), the “Yellow Book” (1), this “Green Book” forms part of a series of standands for purposes of risk analysis. Risk analysis, as such, is not an exact science in all respects. It has, however, been shown that the application of the above-mentioned models can lead to a better insight ofthe risks of the handling of dangerous substances and, consequently, can bea help in reducing these risks. In view of the relatively substantial uncertainties which are introduced, itis nevertheless recommended ‘to be prudent in the interpretation of the results of a risk analysis. An estimate ofthe uncertainties related to the application of the damage models presentéd is made, in ‘as much as possible, during the presentation of the models themselves (see, for this, the chapters in ‘question). These uncertainties must then be applied to the entire process of risk analysis. Uncertainties are also introduced into the probability determination of undesirable events as well as into the calculation of the effects. In the COVO study and in the LPG integrated study, the following ‘uncertainty factors are globally mentioned: a factor of 10-100 in the probabilities and a factor of 10 in the consequences. In the “uncertainties of the effect calculations in risk studies” (3) a closer treatment hhas been conducted with regard to the uncertainry-parameters of the effect-models. A factor which spreads from 210 6 is indicated in this case, {in the application of the damage models, the user must realize thatthe results of the effect calculations (Geparture point forthe damage calculation) are uncertain. Furthermore, the damage calculations themselves introduce additional uncertainties. ‘These uncertainties are of different types: a. Model uncertainties ‘Important, in this case, is the difference of the vulnerability of people among themselves and of structures among themselves. b. Parameter uncertainties In this case, the following, for example, is essential: population data , toxicity data, duration of ‘exposure (escape possibilities) etc.In order to obtain an adequate evaluation of safety distances between installations, or between installations or transport routes and housing, the damage calculations, however, can certainly play a role. ‘The above is also the case for disaster combatment plans. By comparing various calculation results, applied to the same models, the differences which can be observed can help reducing the degree of uncertainty. A relative use (comparisons between different locations/safery measures/transport routes, tc.) leads, consequently, to the best results. tis worth recommending, when dealing with the damage models, to quantify, as close as possible, the influence of the uncertainties. This, or further research, will help reducing the magnitude of these ‘uncertainties. ‘The results obtained must serve the purpose of obtaining a higher degree of safety. There is, apart from this, also a number of other techniques available (process safety analysis, HAZOP, safety audits, et). A ‘Proper risk management requires that all knowledge and expericace be up to date, that the installation itselfis safe, that maintenance is adequate, eic. Furthermore, a proper evaluation of the possible damage ‘due to an undesirable event also belongs to the field of good risk management. The models hereby ‘Presented can help, in this respect. These models reflect the knowledge, in this area, which was available by year 1987. References |. Methods for the Calculation of Physical Effects of the escape of dangerous material (liquids and gases). The “Yellow Book” DGA, OP 15E, 1979. (second edition, CPR 14E, 1991) 2. Methods for the Determining and the Processing Probabilities. DGA, CPR 12E, 1988. 3. The Uncertainty of Effect Calculations in Risk Studies AVIV, January 1986.Chapter 1 Damage caused by heat radiationContents ‘List of symbols 1 ‘Introduction Ld ‘Models. 12 Description of chapters 13 ‘Identification chart 114 Procedure forthe clelatin of damages due to eat adation 2 ‘The effects of heat radiation on people 21 Introduction: 22 Characterization ofthe injury 23 Consequences of bums 24 Physical properties of the skin 25 A calculation model for the injury due to heat radiation 25.1 Introduction 25.2» Mode for heat transfer 26 - Experimental determination of injury caused by heat radiation 3. ‘Statistical model for injury due to heat radiation 31 Introduction 3.2 Relationship between the heat load and the degree of burns - 3.3 Determination of the extend of the damage with the help of probit functions 4. The influence of clothing on the extend of personal injury due to heat radiation 41 Induction 42. Theigion of thing 43 The protective effect of clothing 5. Options for the exposure duration of people subjected to beat radiation from a fire 5.1 Introduction 52 fluence ofthe composition of the exposed group 53. Thnfluence ofthe conditions ofthe fire 5.4 Data from literature about exposure duration and a calculation procedure 6. ‘Damages consequent to a flash fire 61 Induction 62 ‘The progress of a flash fire 63 ‘Material damage due to a flash fire 64 Personal injury due toa flash fire 65 ‘Conclusion 7. Material damages due to heat radiation 7 todueton 72 The critical radiation intensity BRR 30 30 31 BSY KRRRREAppendix A. ‘Fatal injury, in the vicinity of a fireball or of a pool-fire caused by heat radiation. Appendix B. ‘Examples of calculations of the exposure duration. Appendix C. ‘Considerations with regard to a non-stationary character of the heat flux. RESKLES & SISymbols (oy 4 fms] fa Deg Ky) (m} {s- (Waa) {m} a for) 4 a yu 8 Dar?) Wor? (War [Wan {m) fm) - in} [nj fis] i bl fs] i ® [ms] im) fm) (a) [Work] a a [Warlk-}) ikg m3) : Stephan Boltaman constant [WK] QU RDA KK ET EEK MP PRS ORVEZZ ET Gao wo R >>1 Introduction Li Models ‘in Chapter 6 (“Heat radiation”) of the Yellow Book [1] models are presented for the calculation of the ‘eat radiation intensity for different types of fires. In the revision of the Yellow Book [2]. lot of data thas been added. The effects ofa fire are expressed in terms of radiation levels as functions of distance and time. Different sinuations can be foreseen whereby, as consequence of a calamity, the amount of heat ‘generated can be so large that damage to the surroundings of non-negligible magnitude can develop. ‘This damage can manifest itself in the form of burns due to exposure and by deformation and ‘weakening of materials, due to overheating. In addition (among others, due to auto-ignition) secondary fires may develop. ‘The most known models for the calculation of damage due to heat radiation are presented in the “Vulnerability Model” of the U.S. Coast Guard [3]. These models are of limited intent and, in addition, their application in the Netherlands is also of limited nature, among other reasons due to the difference between types of construction in the Netherlands and in the U.S. Furthermore, the models described in [3] are almost totally based on the analysis of damage due to nuclear explosions. There is, however, 2 Justifiable doubt about the similarity of damage due to nuclear explosions and of damage due to fires, of, for instance, hydrocarbons. ‘The models described in this report are suitable for conditions in the Netherlands and are based on conventional fires. r Description of Paragraphs Paragraph 2 provides a general description of the effects of heat radiation on skin. It characterizes, frst, the types of injury due to burns and their consequences. This follows by a description of skin properties and, finally, a model is presented for the calculation of the temperature variations in the skin due to heat radiation. In Paragraph 3 a statistical characterization of personal injuries due to heat radiation is presented. With the help of the presented profit functions, itis possible to calculate the magnitude of the injury. The above departing from known exposure duration and radiation intensity. Paragraph 4 deals with the influence of clothing on the extend of the injury. It provides, at the same time, values of radiation intensity whereby the clothing ignites, for different materials. The protective cffect is expressed by a reduction factor of the extend of the damage. Paragraph 5 provides indications for the determination of the effective exposure duration. Considerations are given, in this case, to the escape possibilities of people exposed to radiation as well sto the influence of the surroundings. The influence of escape possibilities on the extend of the damage is estimated.13 ls In Paragraph 6 the consequences of a flash fire are analyzed. Due to the quick character of the burning ‘process, the damage due to heat radiation outside ofthe flammable cloud are of limited nature. Paragraph 7 gives global values for critical radiation intensities for materials: wood, synthetic materials, lass and uncoated steel. These are values whereby, for mateials suitable for the outer faces of ‘buildings or installations, damage must be considered for long term exposures. With regard to the damage itself, a difference is made between two levels of damage. Identification Chart ‘With the help of the identification chart given in Figure 1.1 it is possible to establish under which conditions the values given inthis report are applicable for the determination of damage due to heat radiation. The numbers outside of the blocks refer to the applicable paragraphs of this chapter. Procedure for the Calculation of Damage due to Heat Radiation In this paragraph, with reference to the identification char of Figure 1-1, itis shown how the calculation of damage to people due to heat radiation must be conducted. ‘Determine the amount of victims within the flame area (See Appendix A) ‘a. Calculate the dimensions of the flame (R) . Determine the population density in the flame area cc. The number of victims inside the flame area is calculated as follows: Ny =No#4R? @.1) Assumptions: = homogenous distribution of the people — all people outside ‘Determine the maximum effective exposure duration of a victim (te) (See Paragraph § and Appendix B) ‘Determine the following quantities: + Radius of aflame area (R) (Flame area = rau ofa fireball or ofa poo! fire). + Radiation intensity atthe flare surface (qa). (For instance with the help of the Yellow Book [1]. + Radiation intensity as function of the distance to the boundary ofthe flame (for instance with the help ‘of computer program {19]. The safe distance (xy) is deducted from this. + Maximum escape time (t.) from the boundary of the flame (R) to x, (at this distance, the radiation intensity is taken equal to 1 kW/n2), (Appendix B). + Duration of the fire (t)- + Effective exposure duration ((aq) inclusive of escape possibilities (Appendix B and Paragraph 5.4). ‘Assumptions: ~ Speed of escape u=4 mis ~ Reaction time t,= 5s = The speed of escape calculated is valid forall persons exposed. Consequently, it represents an overestimation.‘Determine the number of victims outside of the flame area (N2), (See Appendix A). No = ['pQ)*N, * 2m dr 2) where oanes|rverl Z| 3) (Fis a reduction factor related to an eventual protection possibility of clothing, see below.) Determine the inffu of clothing (see Paragraph 4) 2. The clothing does not ignite ‘A reduction factor of the pereetage of victims: F, =0.14s given, for the influence of clothing, in Paragraph 4.3, in which itis assumed that the clothing does not ignite. The dimensions of the 100% lethality area are, consequently, equal to the dimensions of the flame. ‘Assumptions: ~ The skin protected by clothing remains unharmed. — Average age distribution for the population exposed. — Fully dressed, which means that only the face, the neck and the under-arms can suffer bums. 1b. The clothing does ignite Assumption: ~ The injury is fatal when the clothing does ignite. ‘Consider that ignition occurs when the heat radiation dose received (Dy) is higher than 25 « 10¢ kW2m-4s (see Paragraph 4.2). We then determine the distance to the origin (Ry) at which this dose is surpassed, inclusive of escape considerations. Thereby we set the value of the exponent n in the dose equal to 2.7 (the maximum measured value, see Paragraph 4.2). Daz = 487 t,t f* (0? *dt 04 wher 2 00-+( Sa) ana t= reaction time = 5s‘From this given dose we can now calculate the time by which this dose will be reached, with the help oft 27 Di 22.5410" = Go? # Ht [| [n af “dt © xotu* with ke Jes oH z where x, = distance when q = 1 kW/m?, and ‘y= starting loation ofthe viet in relation to the boundary of the flame ‘From this, x, can be determined by iteration. This value of xq is, in the same time, the minimum value of x in the Formulas (B.3), (B.4) and (B.5). The corresponding value of Ry follows from: R=R+x, ) ‘The influence of clothing which ignites is evaluated by an increase of the surface which is located “inside” the flame area (= 100% fatal injury area). Therefore R has to be replaced by Ry, in (D.1). In this manner, “double-countings” (consequences of the buming of the clothing and direct radiation cffect) are. in the same time, avoided.Fig. 1.1 Identification chart for damage due to heat radiation. The numbers under the blocks refer to ‘the corresponding paragraphs. 102 The effects of heat radiation on people 2a Introduction ‘Heat radiation has a twofold effect on people. Physiological effects manifest themselves, primarily, by staying in bot, humid conditions. These effects are: — Increase of the heart-beat — Sweating (transpiration) — Rise of the body temperanure, ‘These effects only play a role by a long term exposure and will not be further considered. ‘Pathological effects of heat radiation are related to the development of bums due to heat transfer to the skin. The process is relatively easy to describe for an unprotected skin. For a skin protected by clothing, itis more complicated. ‘The development of burns on parts of the body which are protected by clothing is mainly caused by the ignition of the clothing. This phenomenon will be treated separately (Paragraph 4.2). ‘After the characterization of the seriousness of the injury due to heat radiation (burns) (Paragraph 22) ‘and the explanation of the most essential physical properties of the skin (Paragraph 23), a model will ‘be presented for the calculation of the depth of the bums, as function ofthe radiation dose to which the skin is exposed (Paragraph 2.4). 22 Characterization of the Injury ‘The injury caused to the skin by the heat radiation is normally defined as: first, second or third degree ‘bum. This determines to what extend and to which depth the skin has been damaged. A published description of burns and of the consequent reactions of the body, as well as the corresponding therapy, is given in the book “Bums” [4]. The degrees of bums previously indicated have been taken from this, book. Figure 2.1 (also taken from [4]) gives a cross-section ofthe skin. The upper layer, the epidermis, has among others, the function of cell-formation; the recovery from burns takes place from the basale cell layer(stratum basale). In case of bums of the dermis, the recovery takes place from bulges of the epidermis in the dermis (see Figure 21). ‘A first degree bum is superficial and is characterized by a red, dry and painful skin. At a second degree ‘bum the epidermis (thickness 0.07- 0.12 mm) is burned: this type of bum is characterized by blister formation and a wet skin, which is also red. A third degree bum extends to the dermis (thickness 1-2 1mm) in which, among others, hair roots and free nerve extremities are present; the burned skin is absent of feeling, dry and has a white, yellow of black colour. Only within the range of a second degree bums a difference is still made between superficial or deep burns. ul23 squszopyto opusep winys0o symaqns Fig.2.1. Cross-section of the skin (schematic). Consequences of Burns ‘Second and third degree bums can lead to disability. Their treatment, also related to the burm-sickmess after a few hours, often requires clinical help in a specialized hospital. A realistic probability of mortality is also present. An estimate of this probability is made on the basis of the portion of the skin surface which has been ‘bummed and depends, also, on the age ofthe person affected, Table 2.1 (taken from [4]) gives a relationship between the mortality probability and these parameters. This relationship (according to Bull [5] and Fisher) is used to estimate the survival possibilities of patients, among others by the “Brandwondencennum” in Beverwijk, The Netherlands. Itcan be seen, from this table, thet by a 50% burn of the skin surface, a child between 0t09 years old 2has a 80% probability of survival, a grown-up person aged 30 to 35 has a 50% probability and a person colder than 60 years will practically certainly die. Table 2.1 Relationship between age, percentage of burned area and mortality. (From The Lancet, 20 Nov. 1971). Boty Aeon) LES, [9 om 6 ma BD OH iw OM CO BH ED OM EO OH ED @ oe [1 ttt ttttttaidaadad aals's 9 9]1 111 rtataaaaidg se|s 9 9 9 9 9]i 114 1222 29 0 wa|s 8 8 8 9 9 9 sf) 1d dd daa 4d nn | a 838 9 9 9]1 121121221 62 | 6 6 7 7 8 8 $ 9 $ 9/1 1Toy’rw dt ea|s s 6 6 677 8 8 9 s[9 i 1111 58-62 | 4 4 45 5 6 6 7 7 BH HP’ tow ve ss |3 3 3 4 45 5 637 7 8 9|9 1 111 an|2 23333456678 sf) 111 ea |2 222233 445 a sea [aa 1222334 6 8 gfi1t sar faoao4 4 4 42 235 45 7 8 9 fi i wxfo oo ols a a1 4 223 4 6 gia aa}o ooo 0 ola td 1223 4 gia wa2]o oo 0 0 0 ola a a a 2 4689 wir ]o 0 0 0 oo o ola 2235 69 B12 o © 0 0 © 0 0 0 0 oO aoa 3°35 at |o 0 0 0 © 0 0 0 0 OO Ola 23 4 oz |o 0 1 © © 0 oO OO oO OO O]A A 2 2 ‘The curing time for deep second or third degree burns can be set at, respectively, 14-21 and 21 days. Formation of blisters is considered to be superficially of second degree. Physical Properties of the Skin ‘The physical properties ofthe skin are strongly dependent on the part of the human skin considered. ‘This is especially important with regard to the skin thickness. ‘Stoll (6] indicates the following average values: 1B25 25.1 Table 22 Average values for physical properties of the skin of a man of 70 kgs and 1.7 m. ‘weight, M- akg surface, A 18m? volume, V 3.6 103 m3 water contents,- | 70-75% (mass) specific mass, p 0kg.ar3 thickness, d 0.05-5 mm (in the main 1-2 mm) ‘The most important property of the skin in relation to wounds caused by heat radiation is the ‘emperature-equalizing coefficient ay, aA fre =] eo with: ‘1 :heat conducting coefficient [WarlK-1] P specific mass kg. m3) ©: specific beat Boke IK] ‘This coefficient determines the speed by which the energy is absorbed by the skin and its temperamare ‘Another quantity which determines the extend ofthe temperature rise isthe so-called thermal slowness: ‘Ape (m4s-1K-2]. A heat conductivity model for the skin is given by Hardee and Lee [7]. Even ‘though, sometimes, the thermal properties for water are used for the thermal properties of the skin, ‘measurements show that these properties can vary very substantially. A number of measured values is given in Table 23. Table 2.3 Thermal properties of human skin. From [7]. a pe % dpe [WiK} Bim?K] (ms) Wi] Perkins et al [8] 0.764 335x108 0228x106 256x106 ‘Mitchell [32] 0591 4.195108 oaaix106 247x108 Sto [6] 0.628 368x108 o.7ix106 231x108 A preference, in [7], is given to the values given by Perkins et a [8]. ‘The absorption coefficient, a, shows which part of the radiation is being absorbed. From tests by Stoll ‘and Chianta [9] with (blackened) skin a 94% absorption is indicated. In view of the sinall value of the reflected part a full absorption of the radiation can be considered. A Calculation Model for the Injury due to Heat Radiation Introduction ‘Bums develop due to the temperature rise of the skin caused by heat transfer into the skin. At the heat ‘supply produced by heat radiation due to fire, the energy absorption is practically total (“see physical ‘Properties of the skin”). Dependent on the magnitude of the temperature rise and on the depth of ‘penetration, more or less serious burns can develop, see Paragraph 2.2. A model is presented by Hardee and Lee [7], whereby the temperature in the skin is calculated as a function of time and location. By “4