The Danube Region – RSC?

1. The boundary variable

 Danube region partially complies with the inter-state units border rule and
partially confirms the fact that RSC “may or may not coincide” with the
traditional description of borders
2. The anarchic structure
 The European Union as a unitary structure, an important RSC in its own right,
according to Buzan and Waever, is also a major stakeholder in the area; the
Danube Region Strategy focuses on eleven major priorities, among which
economic, political, ecological or humanitarian issues.
 The historic overview above also offers a general image of the changes
undergone, in time, by this anarchic structure. The most important – and
dramatic – change which took place in recent years was the break-up of the
Eastern Bloc in the 1990s, following the downfall of communism and the
end of the Cold War era. The political and military influence of the US in the
former communist countries increased significantly, partially replacing that of
the former Moscow leaders and one of the results was that, freed from the
constraints of the Warsaw Pact (disbanded in February 1991) ten former
communist states became members of the Western military counterpart, NATO,
in two phases (the Visegrad Group – Hungary, the Czech republic and Poland –
in 1999, followed by Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania
and Bulgaria – in 2004).
 The military reorientation went hand in hand with a renewed interest of the EU
towards the Eastern part of the continent, for the purpose of what is commonly
known as “European integration” – in other words, the accession of former
communist states.
 With the admission of Romania and Bulgaria to the EU, most states that are
crossed by the Danube are now members of the EU (except. Serbia and Ukraine).
 The anarchic behavior of RSC’s is given by changes of all types.
 The most important negative change which took place in the Danube Region
was the Civil War in former Yugoslavia. Starting from the initial independence
 movements inside the Yugoslav Federation, a regional conflict which threatened
the security of the entire region broke out when the Kosovo region (part of
Serbia) claimed its independence.
 The ensuing involvement of, and bombardments by NATO forces (in support of
the Kosovar bid) in Serbia resulted in an ecological catastrophe for the Danube,
with parts of destroyed bridges and wreckages temporarily blocking transport
and trade on the river and taking years to clean.
3. The polarity variable
 The polarity factor focuses on the distribution of power among the components
of a RSC.
 The RSC matrix proves that the involvement and control of a SP is fundamental
for a specific area to be treated as a RSC while the mere representation of GP in
any number is not sufficient, as it gives rise to movements meant to ensure
balance of power among them.
 So the optimal matrix for this case would be 1SP + 3-4 GP + small states.
 The RSC matrix at present could be 1SP (USA) + 2GP (EU and Russia) +
1RP (Turkey) + small regional actors (Ukraine, Moldova, Albania).
 A variant would be with 0 SP (and the rest is the same)
o The influence of US in the region is significant (through organizations
coordinated by it such as NATO).
4. The social construction variable (Enmity and Amity)
 The Danube Region was never short of conflicts. The local fights for domination
which took place during the Middle Age were followed by fiercer (though not
as explosive) conflicts during the Cold War period. The decisive part played by
the USSR in setting up a convenient, arguably Soviet-dominated Danube
Commission resulted in a partial failure of free trade mechanisms; the major
qualitative difference between the upstream and downstream Danube protection
and modernization actions marked the presence of the Iron Curtain on this river
too. In upstream countries, dams were built in order to prevent devastating
floods, while downstream countries built fewer dams and, in certain areas, still
rely on temporary sandbag dams in case of dangerous flows.
 One of the few but remarkable achievements during the Cold War period was
the construction of the two Iron Gate dams at the border of Serbia and Romania,
 which solved a centuries-long problem – the fact that the natural structure of the
gorge in this area had often prevented safe shipping due to its dangerous streams.
 Ukraine and Romania continued to have disputes over the free use of the Chilia
Arm of the Delta. The first major event was the (presumed intentional)
wreck of the Ukrainian barge Rostock at the beginning of the 1990s, which
resulted in long efforts to retrieve the wreck and resume shipping activities.
More recently, Ukraine decided to build a navigation canal for large ships
on Chilia arm of the Danube Delta, in spite of international concern for
preserving the Natural Reserve; for the moment, Ukraine has stopped the
project due to international protests, but nobody knows what will happen
in the future years.
 Another important element of transboundary enmity is the dispute between
Slovakia (previously Czechoslovakia) and Hungary around the issue of the
Gabčíkovo – Nagymaros Dams. The dispute refers to the 1977 Treaty for a
cross-border canal whereby the Danube was partially diverted.
 Amity: treaties (London Conference of 1871, Treaty of Berlin of 1878,
Additional Public Act of 1881, Treaty of London of 1883)

The assessment of Danube Region characteristics presented above demonstrates the

complexity of this area and the manifold, intricate elements which define its identity. They all
converge towards a confirmation of its status as an atypical, nevertheless solidly structured
RSC.