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characterizes its intrinsic nature. In this world, change is constant and everything else is
evolving at a rapid pace, our decisions should also adapt to the change. Uncertainty is an
intrinsic and pervasive property that fittingly characterizes the very nature of the world we
live in. uncertainty exists everywhere and it poses tremendous challenges to human
for actions to gain the highest value. Needless to say that planning is very important.
Making a sound plan before taking actions is a fundamental principal that guides peoples’
practices in various discipline. However, a good plan is only half of the process. No matter
how superior a plan is, in the execution phase, various unanticipated events will disrupt the
system and make the plane deviate from its intended course and even make it infeasible.1
The notion of VUCA was introduced by the U.S. Army War College to describe the
more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous, multilateral world which resulted from
the end of the Cold War. The acronym itself was not created until the late 1990s, and it
was not until the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, that notion and acronym really
took hold. VUCA was subsequently adopted by strategic business leaders to describe the
chaotic, turbulent, and rapidly changing business environment that has become the “new
normal.” The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) concurs. A recent BCG study concluded
that organizations today must shift their business models—and their leadership skills—to
become “adaptive firms.” Adaptive firms can adjust and learn better, faster, and more
economically than their peers, giving them an “adaptive advantage.” Adaptive firms, the
study notes, include Apple, Google, 3M, Target, and Amazon. 1 VUCA has always been a
part of life, beginning from the fact that we all have to die. Leaders have been challenged
by VUCA before – but never on the global scale that they will experience over the next
decade. In the future, disruption will become the norm for most people, as the scope,
The “V” in the VUCA acronym stands for volatility. It means the nature, speed,
volume, and magnitude of change that is not in a predictable pattern (Sullivan, 2012
January 16). Volatility is turbulence, a phenomenon that is occurring more frequently than
in the past. The BCG study found that half of the most turbulent financial quarters during
the past 30 years have occurred since 2002. The study also concluded that financial
turbulence has increased in intensity and persists longer than in the past. Other drivers of
competition, and business model innovation. The “U” in the VUCA acronym stands for
uncertainty, or the lack of predictability in issues and events.2 These volatile times make it
difficult for leaders to use past issues and events as predictors of future outcomes, making
stands for complexity. As HR thought leader John Sullivan notes (2012 January 16), there
are often numerous and difficult-to-understand causes and mitigating factors (both inside
and outside the organization) involved in a problem. This layer of complexity, added to the
turbulence of change and the absence of past predictors, adds to the difficulty of decision
making. It also leads to confusion, which can cause ambiguity, the last letter in the
acronym. Ambiguity is the lack of clarity about the meaning of an event, or, the “causes
and the ‘who, what, where, how, and why’ behind the things that are happening (that) are
unclear and hard to ascertain”. Col. Eric G. Kail defines ambiguity in the VUCA model as
the “inability to accurately conceptualize threats and opportunities before they become
Kail, is the frustration that results when compartmentalized accomplishments fail to add up
The VUCA model identifies the internal and external conditions affecting
organizations today. The VUCA Prime was developed by Bob Johansen, distinguished
fellow at the Institute for the Future and the author of Leaders Make the Future: Ten New
Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World. Johansen proposes that the best VUCA leaders
are characterized by vision, understanding, clarity, and agility - the “flips” to the VUCA
model. The VUCA Prime can be seen as the continuum of skills leaders can develop to
help make sense of leading in a VUCA world. HR and talent management professionals
can use the VUCA Prime as a “skills and abilities” blueprint when creating leadership
development plans. In the VUCA Prime, volatility can be countered with vision because
vision is even more vital in turbulent times. Leaders with a clear vision of where they want
their organizations to be in three to five years can better weather volatile environmental
changes such as economic downturns or new competition in their markets, for example, by
making business decisions to counter the turbulence while keeping the organization’s
vision in mind. Uncertainty can be countered with understanding, the ability of a leader to
stop, look, and listen. To be effective in a VUCA environment, leaders must learn to look
and listen beyond their functional areas of expertise to make sense of the volatility and to
lead with vision. This requires leaders to communicate with all levels of employees in their
Complexity can be countered with clarity, the deliberative process to make sense of the
chaos. In a VUCA world, chaos comes swift and hard. Leaders, who can quickly and
clearly tune into all of the minutiae associated with the chaos, can make better, more
informed business decisions. Finally, ambiguity can be countered with agility, the ability
to communicate across the organization and to move quickly to apply solutions.3 Vision,
understanding, clarity, and agility are not mutually exclusive in the VUCA prime. Rather,
they are intertwined elements that help managers become stronger VUCA leaders. 5
During the past decade, we have seen a flourish of research and applications in the
area of disruption management. The initial value was achieved in the airline industry. The
saved several major airlines in the United States tens of millions of dollars annually
together with improved on-time performance and better customer services. The studies
The first thing that we should do to face disruption is looking backward from the
future, which is about learning how to go out to the future (usually ten years ot) and then
work your way back. It will help you to see the direction of change so that you can avoid
the noise of the present and develop your clarity. To lead, you will need to be clear about
direction but flexible about execution. The second one is voluntary fear engagement,
which is about gamefully engaging with your fears in low-risk simulated worlds. Because
next generation disruption will be so dangerous and difficult to understand, safe zones will
be needed where you can immerse yourself in fear and figure out how to succeed. Practice
and learn with others, the way the military conducts war gaming. Then come back better
prepared for the real thing. The third ones is leadership for shape-shifting organization.
Learn how to thrive in distributed organizations that have no center, grow from the edges,
and cannot be controlled. Hierarchies will come and go as needs arise and the environment
shifts. The next generation of technology will provide the connective cord for distributed
organizations so you can share risk and develop new opportunities. Since reciprocity will
be the currency of this new world -not just traditional transactions- you will have to
ones is being there when you are not there. Although you may currently lead beast in
person, shape-shifting organizations will require you to be many places at once. Leaders
will have to engage with people who are geographically, organizationally, and temporally
distributed. In-person meetings will still be best for some things, but you will need to
decide which medium is good for what, with which people, at what time. The last is
greating and sustaining positive energy. You must regulate your personal energy so you
have focuse, stamina, and resilience when you need it. The VUCA world will be
exhausting for everyone – but especially for leaders. You will have to be extremely fit,
physically and psychologically – much more so than leaders in the past. And you will need
spiritual (though not necessarily religious) grounding and a sense of meaning in the midst
of extreme disruption.2
REFERENCES
1. Gang Yu and Xiangtong Qi, Disruption Management: Framework, Models and
3. Kingsinger, P. & Walch, K. (2012 July 9). Living and leading in a VUCA world.
http://knowledgenetwork.thunderbird.edu/research/2012/07/09/kinsinger-walch-
vuca/.
4. Sullivan, J. (2012 October 22). Talent strategies for a turbulent VUCA world—
http://www.ere.net/2012/10/22/talent-strategies-for-a-turbulentvuca-world-shifting-
to-an-adaptive-approach.
Reading%203%20 Developing-leaders-in-a-vuca-environment.pdf.
leadership/2011/01/leading-effectively-in-avuca-1.html.