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CO2 Embodied in International Trade trade may help mitigation and accelerate sustainable
development.
with Implications for Global Climate Historically, international trade has played a significant
role in economic development by giving a mechanism to
Policy efficiently allocate resources, typically labor and capital (1).
However, without fully and uniformly costing externalities,
GLEN P. PETERS* AND production may occur in regions with poor environmental
EDGAR G. HERTWICH performance or weak environmental legislation. This sepa-
Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of ration of consumption and production has instigated many
Science and Technology (NTNU), studies on the pollution embodied in international trade—
NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway primarily air pollutants (2, 3), but also water (4), land (5),
materials (6), and even forest products (7). These studies
Received August 14, 2007. Revised manuscript received have highlighted the magnitude and policy importance of
December 17, 2007. Accepted December 18, 2007. pollution embodied in trade for individual countries or small
groups of countries. Despite this, there is a clear need for
See https://pubs.acs.org/sharingguidelines for options on how to legitimately share published articles.
global pollutants. In this article we determine the CO2 emissions been little research on how trade may impact climate policy.
embodied in international trade among 87 countries for the year If a country has a large share of its exports in pollution-
2001. We find that globally there are over 5.3 Gt of CO2 intensive production, then there may be large—real or
embodied in trade and that Annex B countries are net importers perceived (11)—economic cost associated with participating
of CO2 emissions. Depending on country characteristics—such in a global climate regime (12). If the climate regime has
inadequate participation, then there is a risk that production
as size variables and geographic location—there are
will increasingly shift to nonparticipating countries. Either
considerable variations in the embodied emissions. We argue industries may close down and move to nonparticipating
that emissions embodied in trade may have a significant countries, or more problematic, expanded production may
impact on participation in and effectiveness of global climate occur in nonparticipating countries (13) as is clearly dem-
policies such as the Kyoto Protocol. We discuss several policy onstrated by the rapid growth of production in China (14, 15).
options to reduce the impact of trade in global climate Further, with increasingly global production, most low-cost
policy. If countries take binding commitments as a part of a mitigation options may be located outside the country of
coalition, instead of as individual countries, then the impacts of consumption. As an example, since Norway has almost 100%
trade can be substantially reduced. Adjusting emission hydropower, it would make economic sense for Norway to
inventories for trade gives a more consistent description of a focus emission reductions on coal power electricity genera-
country’s environmental pressures and circumvents many trade tion in its important trading partners (16). The Kyoto Protocol
related issues. It also gives opportunities to exploit trade as attempts to address this through the Clean Development
a means of mitigating emissions. Not least, a better understanding Mechanism (CDM), but evidence suggests that the CDM has
not been effective at meeting its goals (17).
of the role that trade plays in a country’s economic and
environmental development will help design more effective There have been many proposals for climate policy in the
post-Kyoto period (18, 19) with many considering issues such
and participatory climate policy post-Kyoto.
as equity, flexibility, economic costs, and environmental
1. Introduction effectiveness. Very few proposals have assessed whether
international trade may be underlying some of the concerns
International trade causes a geographic separation of con- with the Kyoto Protocol. International trade has been
sumers and the pollution emitted in the production of discussed as a way to enforce climate policy (20) and there
consumable items. This gives a mechanism for consumers is increasing interest in using trade-based mechanisms such
to shift environmental pollution associated with their
as border-tax adjustments (21–23). National emission in-
consumption to distant lands. For local pollutants this may
ventories can also be adjusted for trade (24, 25) which has
be viewed as a rational option for consumers, but for global
the potential to avoid issues such as carbon leakage, but has
pollutants—such as greenhouse gases (GHG)—consumers
received little attention in climate policy debates (12). Given
will bear the costs regardless of where production occurs.
the importance of trade in most aspects of modern econo-
Consequently one would expect the optimal policy for global
mies, it is certainly beneficial to investigate the role trade
pollutants to consider the implications of international trade.
has in climate policy.
Interestingly, the only reference to international trade in the
Kyoto Protocol is that “Parties. . .shall strive to implement The main focus of this article is a quantitative comparison
policies and measures. . .in such a way as to minimize adverse of how the emissions embodied in international trade shape
effects. . .on international trade”. Many of the debated a country’s environmental profile and discuss the implica-
problems of the Kyoto Protocol are manifested in interna- tions for global climate policy. We perform detailed analyses
tional trade—costs, competitiveness, carbon leakage, and on the emissions embodied in exports and imports, the
so on—and perhaps ironically, restructuring international carbon leakage between Annex B and non-Annex B countries,
and compare different methods for constructing GHG
* Corresponding author phone: +47 7359 8938; e-mail: glen.peters@ inventories. Finally, we discuss the implications of anthro-
ntnu.no; http://www.indecol.ntnu.no/. pogenic carbon flows for global climate policy.
10.1021/es072023k CCC: $40.75 2008 American Chemical Society VOL. 42, NO. 5, 2008 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 9 1401
Published on Web 01/30/2008
2. Background and Methodology Summation gives the total emissions occurring in the country
fr ) frr +Σs frs. Direct household and government emissions—
Often, the most polluting aspect of a consumable product such as personal car use—can be included in frr. The total
is the pollution emitted in production. The emissions occur emissions embodied in exports (EEE) from region r to all
either directly through the production processes or indirectly other regions are
in the global supply chain due to acquisitions such as
∑f
electricity, transportation, manufacturing, and so on. The
accumulated emissions emitted in the production of the fre ) rs (4)
s
product are said to be “embodied” emissions (other authors
have used “virtual” or “hidden”). For global climate policy
and the total emissions embodied in imports (EEI) are
the “emissions embodied in trade” (EET) between countries
obtained by reversing the summation
are of most interest.
∑f
We consider three aspects of EET relevant for global
climate policy. First, a direct analysis of EET provides a better frm ) sr (5)
s
understanding of the environmental separation between
domestic consumption and global production. Second, an
Another quantity that is often discussed in the literature is
analysis of carbon leakage reveals to what extent pollution
the Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET)
is shifted rather than abated. Third, trade-adjusted GHG
emission inventories eliminate carbon leakage and attempt
to exploit trade to mitigate emissions. frBEET ) fre - frm (6)
2.1. Emissions Embodied in Trade (EET). Calculating
the EET can become complex due to the need to enumerate which represents a trade balance for pollution.
the unique production systems in individual countries to a 2.2. Carbon Leakage. Carbon leakage is an issue that
reasonable level of sectorial detail and then to link this to has been discussed quite extensively in the economics
consumption systems through international trade data. The literature on climate change (28). In this article we deviate
most common methodology for this type of analysis is a from the notion of carbon leakage used in Computable
generalization of environmental input-output analysis (IOA) General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The CGE literature
(26) to a multiregional setting. takes a very “strong” definition of carbon leakage (13) defined
Using IOA there are two main approaches to modeling as the increase in non-Annex B emissions divided by the
EET at a national level (27). The simplest approach is to reduction in Annex B emissions (28). Under this definition,
determine the domestic CO2 emissions in each country to the analyst seeks to determine the production that shifts from
produce the bilateral trade with another country. This method an Annex B to a non-Annex B country in response to a GHG
is the most transparent, but does not assess the imports mitigation policy in an Annex B country. Theoretical studies
required to produce the bilateral trade. A more complex of strong carbon leakage find the leakage to range between
approach uses a multiregional input-output (MRIO) model 0 and 130%, but it is highly dependent on the modeling
to determine the global emissions for an exogenous final assumptions (28). Empirically, there is little evidence that
consumption with global trade determined endogenously. production shifts due to environmental legislation (29, 30).
Both methods give the same global emissions, but the The weakness of the IPCC definition of carbon leakage is
national emissions differ in the method of allocating inter- that it ignores the fact that production may increase in non-
mediate consumption (27). In this article we employ the Annex B countries for reasons totally disconnected to climate
simplified version that we find is more transparent and mitigation in Annex B countries—“weak” carbon leakage (13).
appropriate for quantitative analysis of EET in global climate From 1990 to 2006 global GHG emissions have increased
policy. 35% despite stabilizing in Annex B countries (31) and it is
To explicitly model the EET requires a decomposition of important to quantify what portion of this increase is directly
the standard IOA framework into domestic and traded or indirectly due to consumption in Annex B countries. This
components. The total CO2 emissions occurring in each gives rise to an alternative notion of “weak carbon leakage”,
region are defined as the CO2 EEI from non-Annex B countries to Annex
B countries
(
fr ) Fr(I - Arr)-1 yrr + ∑e )
s
rs (1)
fr* ) ∑
s∉AnnexB
f sr (7)
December 2007). Since the United States represents around to cause substantial concerns for the effectiveness of a climate
one-third of Annex B emissions (38) the Annex B EET varies regime with limited participation.
substantially. Table 2 shows that the ratified countries are Table 1 shows the carbon leakage from Annex B countries
significantly more trade exposed then the United States, Table for CO2 in 2001, and Figure 2 gives a graphical representation
1. The United States (8) and, previously Australia (9), both for key countries. We use two measures of carbon leakage.
cited competitiveness concerns as their rationale for not The first gives the carbon leakage compared to total domestic
ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Based on EET arguments, our emissions which indicates the magnitude of the leakage. The
results suggest that the United States and Australia have second measure (shown in brackets below), normalizes
considerably less competitiveness concerns compared to carbon leakage relative to EEI which indicates the share of
many other Annex B countries. EEI coming from non-Annex B countries and is a maximum
4.2. Carbon Leakage. If an international climate regime of 100%. We estimate the carbon leakage from the Kyoto
has limited participation, such as in the Kyoto Protocol, the Protocol for CO2 as 10.8% (44.3%). The leakage varies
problem of carbon leakage arises. Increased carbon leakage considerably among countries. It is as high as 29.4% (32.9%)
can be caused by two factors. First, industries close down in for Belgium and decreases to 2.7% (46.6%) for the Russian
a participating country and migrate to a nonparticipating Federation. The general trend is for countries with high EEI
country with lax environmental regulations (strong Pollution to have high carbon leakage, although geographic location
Haven Hypothesis, PHH). Evidence for the strong PHH is is important. For instance, Japan and the United States are
poor (29, 30). Second, increased consumption in a partici- located far away from other Annex B countries and so
pating country is met by increased production in a non- normalized to their EEI they have high carbon leakage (68.5%
participating country (weak PHH) (13). Given dynamic and 61.7%, respectively). On the other hand, countries within
economic development the weak PHH would be sufficient the EU have high absolute carbon leakage, but since most