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China 2
China 2
Sources from the financial markets include the controversy over the unwillingness of Citic
Shanghai to reimburse $40 million in debts owed to fourteen traders on the London Metals
Exchange and the failure of the same business to comply with an adverse arbitral decision in the
Revpower event. On February 23, 1995, on the same day that Nick Leeson was blowing up
Barings, Shanghai International lost something in the range of $100-120 million by selling twenty
times the legal cap on future government debt. The reaction from the government was simply to
blot out the remaining 8 minutes of trade.
The second important argument is that China is massive. The potential hurdles in the path of
change, which the rest of the world can neglect to a large extent, can not be ignored in the case
of China. Yet overall North Korea's trade in goods is just around $2 billion, and a nominal player
in the global economy can easily absorb volatile regional economic policies. North Korea has
defaulted on loans to repay borrowers with fish instead of money. China is not North Korea. The
size of China means that developments in China should be taken very seriously by the rest of the
world because they pose the single largest potential threat to international economic stability,
for no other cause than developments in China. Just imagine a Mexico-style slowdown in China
or a collision and a flight from Hong Kong (Meltzer, Shenai, 2019: 2).