‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬

‫ƒ ﲢﻮﻳـــﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋـــﻊ ﺍﻟﺴــﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻘﻄـــﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺳـــﺮ )ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼـــﻲ( ﺇﱃ ﺧﺼـــﻮﻡ ﻏـــﲑ ﺳــﺎﺋﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺼﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺿﲔ �ﻴﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ƒ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳـﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻗـﻞ ﻣـﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻋﻤﻘﺎً )ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻭﺭﺑﺎ(‬
‫ƒ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ‪%١٠٫١‬‬

‫‪%٣٦٫٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻥ‬
‫‪%٤٧‬‬ ‫ﺃﳌﺎ�ﻴﺎ‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ƒ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣـﻴﺔ �ﺼـﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻭﺃﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﻳﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﻭﳝﻮﻝ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺩﻭﺭ ﳏــﺪﻭﺩ ﻻﺳــﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟــﻴﺔ ﻭﺳــﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺸــﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﻟﻴﺴــﺖ ﻣــﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﺎﱄ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ )ﻗﻠﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ(‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻗﻠــﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃــﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴ ـﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻀــﺔ ﺭﻏــﻢ ﺍﻟــﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳــﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟــﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣــﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﺍﺟﻌﺎً ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻ�ﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﳌﻀﻤﻮ�ﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺎً‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳊﻘﺎﺋﻖ‬
‫ﺍﳉﻬﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﺔ‬
‫ﳎﻠﺲ ﻣﺪﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﳍﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱪﳌﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﳉﻨﺔ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﺎ ﻳﺮﺍﺳﻬﺎ ﳏﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﳏﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬
‫ﳎﻠﺲ ﻣﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﳎﻠﺲ ﻣﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﺗﻌﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﺳﻠﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﳉﻨﺔ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺑﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫�ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻠﻜﻬﺎ‬ ‫�ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫�ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ ﻷﻛﱪ ‪٥‬‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻟﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﺎ�ﺐ‬ ‫ﲤﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫‪ ١٠٠٠٠٠‬ﺷﺨﺺ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫‪٢٨‬‬ ‫‪٤‬‬ ‫‪٧١‬‬ ‫‪٣٫٠‬‬ ‫‪١٨٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬

‫‪٤‬‬ ‫‪٦٧‬‬ ‫‪٦٥‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٠‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬
‫‪٦٨‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٨‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٤‬‬ ‫‪٢١٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٤‬‬ ‫‪١٠٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬
‫‪٢٧‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٠‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬
‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫‪٢٤‬‬ ‫‪٧٥‬‬ ‫‪٠٫١‬‬ ‫‪٨٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‬
‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٧٧‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٧‬‬ ‫‪٦٤‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫‪٤٣‬‬ ‫‪٧٦‬‬ ‫‪١٫٩‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٦‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٣‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫‪٩‬‬ ‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫‪٦٥‬‬ ‫‪٥٫٥‬‬ ‫‪٥٣٩‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻳﺴﺮﺍ‬
‫‪١٨‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٢‬‬ ‫‪١٦٦‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺰﻳﺎ‬
‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٨‬‬ ‫‪٠٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٨‬‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫�ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ‪١٠‬ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﲔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻚ ﻫﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﲔ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺎً‬ ‫ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺎ�ﻮ�ﻴﺎً‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫�ﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫‪٠‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪١٫٥‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٣‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫‪٧٠‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪٨٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٫٣‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪٣٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪١٫٤‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫‪٢٫٥‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٨‬‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪٣٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٫٣‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫‪٣٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٫٣‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪١٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٨‬‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫‪٧٫٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪١٫٣‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻳﺴﺮﺍ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪٤٫٧‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٥‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺰﻳﺎ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫‪٥٫٧‬‬ ‫‪٢٫٣‬‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‬

‫ƒ ﻋـﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﻞ‪2 3‬ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﻣﺘﺎﻋﺐ ﻣﻌﺘﱪﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‬
‫‪.٩٦ – ٨٠‬‬
‫ƒ ﺷﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﰲ ‪ ٨٠‬ﻭ ‪ ٩٠‬ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻳﻬــﺘﻢ ﺍﻟــﻨﺎﺱ ﺑﺎﳌﺸــﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ �ﺘــﻴﺠﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﻫــﺎ ﰲ �ﻈــﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﻓــﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟــﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟــﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗـﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺯﻣـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺰ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯ�ﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻳـﻦ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔـﺎﻉ ﺃﺳـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔـﺎﺋﺪﺓ )ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ( ﻭﺣﺼﻮﻝ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓــﺰ ‪ Incentives‬ﻣــﺜﻞ ﺗﻘﻠــﻴﻞ ﺷــﺪﺓ ﻣﺮﺍﻗــﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﰲ ﻭﺍﳋــﻮﺽ ﰲ‬
‫ﳐﺎﻃــﺮﺓ ﺃﻋــﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠــﻴﻞ ﻣــﻦ ﺍﻟﻘــﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔــﺎﻉ ﺃﺳــﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔـﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻳﻀــﻊ ﻗــﻴﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺇﺿــﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄــﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﰲ ﻭﺗﻘﻠــﻴﻞ ﺍﻻ�ــﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﰲ ﺍﶈﺼــﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻀــﺮﺭ ﺑﺎﻟــﻨﻤﻮ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔــﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺻﻌﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺗﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻣﺼﺎﻋﺐ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗــﺮﺗﻔﻊ �ﺴــﺐ ﺍﻷﺻــﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻭﻣــﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻛــﺜﺮ ﻣــﻦ ‪ %١٠‬ﻣــﻦ ﺇﲨــﺎﱄ ﺃﺻــﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇ�ﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﺘﻌﺪﻯ ‪ %٢‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ �ﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﺳـﺘﻨﻔﺎﺫ ﻭﺍﺳـﻊ ﳌـﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺃﺧـﺬ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺠﺎﻟﻴﺔ )ﲡﻤﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ ﻭﲤﺪﻳﺪ ﻏﻠﻖ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ(‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﻣﺼﺎﻋﺐ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬

Systemic banking crises

Episodes of non-systemic banking crises
No crises
Source: Caprio and Klingebiel (1999). Insufficient information
‫ ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬.‫د‬
 ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻭﻣﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻ�ﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯ�ﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺼﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻃﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟـﻴﻒ ﻣﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﻻ ﺗﺎﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ �ﺴﺐ ﺍﺳﱰﺟﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻭﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﻔﺎﺫ ﻣــﻮﺍﺭﺩ )‪ (Run‬ﻗﺼــﲑ ﺍﻻﺟــﻞ ﻭﻣــﻦ ﺍﻟــﻨﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻜــﺲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳــﺔ ﺃﻭ ﳖﺎﻳــﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣــﺔ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﰲ ﺃﻏﻠــﺐ ﺍﻷﺣــﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﻜــﻮﻥ ﻣﺸــﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺴــﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻤــﺔ ﻣــﻨﺬ ﻓــﱰﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺗﺘﻼﺯﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﰲ ﻓﱰﺓ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻜﻦ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ‪:‬‬

‫ƒ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻣﻴﻜﺮﺍﻭﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻰﺀ‬

‫ƒ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻣﺎﻛﺮﺍﻭﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻰﺀ‬

‫ƒ ﲡﺪ ﺟﺬﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬

‫ƒ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‬

‫ƒ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺳﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﱰﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻋــﺪﻡ ﺗﻄــﺎﺑﻖ ﺑــﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــﻼﺕ ﻭﺁﺟــﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳــﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺑــﲔ ﺩﺍﺧــﻞ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻟــﺪﻯ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺿﲔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗـﺘﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳـﺒﺎﺏ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛـﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﳍﻢ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ )ﺃﻱ ﻗﻠﺔ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺭﺃﲰـــﺎﳍﻢ ﺍﳌﺴـــﺘﺜﻤﺮ( ﻭﻛﺬﻟـــﻚ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛـــﺎﻥ ﻣـــﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒـــﻨﻮﻙ ﻟـــﻴﺲ ﳍـــﻢ ﻣﺴـــﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺷﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣـﻴﺔ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺗﻜﺜﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻘﺔ )ﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ(‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺗﻜــﺜﺮ ﻓــﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘــﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﻤــﻨﻮﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺍﺳــﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛــﺜﺮﺓ ﻋﻤﻠــﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠــﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟــﻚ‬
‫ﺃﺣﻴﺎ�ﺎً ﺍﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺶ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣـﻴﺔ ﺗـﺪﺍﺭ ﻋـﻠﻰ ﺍﺳـﺎﺱ ﻣﻌـﺎﻳﲑ ﺳﻴﺎﺳـﻴﺔ ﻭﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺒﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺣﱰﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺩﻯﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻼﺀﲥﺎ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـــــﻞ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓــــﻲ ﺍﻟﺴــﻴﻰﺀ ﳝﻜـــــﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳـــــﺪﻭﻡ ﻓـــــــﻲ ﻏــﻴــــﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈــﻴــــﻢ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺇ�ﻀﺒﺎﻁ ﲡﺎﻩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ )ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ( ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻴﻒ‬

‫ƒ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﱰﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻷﻗﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻝ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻏﲑ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻀﺨﻢ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺭﺍﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﲑ ﻛﻔﺆﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ ﻭﻗﻠﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﲔ ﺍﻷﻛﻔﺎﺀ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺇﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻣﺎﱄ ﳏﺪﻭﺩ‬

‫ƒ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺴــﻮﻕ )ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿــﲔ( ﻻ ﳝﻠﻜــﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣــﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀــﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻔــﺮﺽ ﺍﻻ�ﻀــﺒﺎﻁ ﻋــﻠﻰ‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻜﻲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﻗﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺗﻌﺎﻕ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺑﻀﻌﻒ ﺍﻷﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﲏ ﲟﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪:‬‬

‫ƒ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ�ﻮ�ﻲ )ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ(‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻨﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫ƒ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺜﺮﺓ‬

‫ƒ ﺗﻮﻗﻌـﺎﺕ ﺍ�ﻘـﺎﺫ )‪ (Bailout‬ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋـﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﻴﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ‬

‫ﺟﻴﺪﺓ )‪(Moral Hazard‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺗـــﻨﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺯﻣـــﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼـــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻣـــﻦ ﺍﻷﺳـــﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺎﻛـــﺮﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟـــﻴﺔ ﻋـــﻦ ﺍﻟـــﻨﻈﺎﻡ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺣـﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ )ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﻭ�ﻈﺎﻡ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﲢﻮﻃﻲ ﺟﻴﺪ( ﳝﻜﻦ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﳚﺮ ﺑﺘﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ‪:‬‬

‫ƒ ﻃﻔﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻗﺮﺍﺽ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺒﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ƒ ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ )ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ(‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻨﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﻘﺔ‪ /‬ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰﺀ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻨﺎﻣﻲ ﻋﺠﺰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯ�ﺔ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻮ�ﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻐﲑ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬
‫ƒ ﻟﻴﺴـﺖ ﻛـﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣـﻞ ﰲ ﲢﻜـﻢ ﺁﺧـﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍً ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎً‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﻣ‪‬ﺴﺒﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ƒ ﻣــﻊ ﺗﻮﻓــﺮ ﺍﻟﺴــﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻓــﺈﻥ ﻣﺸــﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﳝﻜــﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳــﺪﻭﻡ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻳـﺄﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻟﻔﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻗــــﺪ ﺗﻜـــــــــﻮ ﻥ ﻣــــــﻦ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳــــﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣـﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺻﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫ﲤـــﺜــــــﻞ ﺩﻋــــــﻮﺓ ﻳﻘﻈـــﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﳉـــﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـــﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺼـــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺗـــﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟــــــــﻰ ﺗﻐـــﻴـــــــﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻔﺎﺟﻰﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ‪.Systematic Bank Run‬‬
‫ƒ ﻇﻬــﻮﺭ ﻣﺸــﺎﻛﻞ ﺳــﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺼــﺮﻑ ﻣــﺎ ﻗــﺪ ﺗﻨﺘﺸــﺮ )ﺍﻟﻌــﺪﻭﻯ( ﺑﺴــﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺑــﺎﻗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﰲ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺿﻌﻒ �ﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﰲ ﻭﻳــﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﻘﺎﺫ )‪ (Runs‬ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﺑﻐــﺾ ﺍﻟــﻨﻈﺮ ﻋــﻦ ﻣــﺪﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺪﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﻣ‪‬ﺴﺒﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻭﻯ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )ﺟﻬﻮﻳﺔ(‬ ‫ƒ‬

‫ﺍ�ﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﻣﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ ﻭﻣﺒﻜﺮ ﻭﲢﻀﲑ ﻏﲑ ﻻﺋﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻓﻘــــﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟــــﺜﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺻــ ـﺎ�ﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘــــﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺭﺗــــﻪ ﻋــــﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﺒــــﻴﻖ ﺍﻻﺻــــﻼﺣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﻟــﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳــﺜﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣــﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳــﺜﺔ ﻭﺍﺟﻬــﺖ ﺗﻀــﺎﻓﺮ ﻣﺴــﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟــﻴﺔ ﻣــﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟــﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﺴــﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﺪﻳﻮ�ــﻴﺔ ﺣﻜﻮﻣــﻴﺔ ﻣــﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ )ﺃﺯﻣــﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺟﻨــﺘﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ(‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪ :‬ﳌﺎﺫﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻣﻌﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺰﺍﺕ؟‬

‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﳍﺎ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻣﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ ﲟﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‬
‫ƒ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻫﻮ ”ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻲ“ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺎﻳـﺔ ﺿـﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟـﺘﺎﱄ ﺻـﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻼﺀﺓ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﻳـﺔ ﺍﳌﺴـﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﲡـﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪Limited Shareholder‬‬
‫‪ Liabilily‬ﺗ ـﺰﻳﺪ ﻣــﻦ ﺇﻗــﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﳌــﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳏــﺎﻓﻆ ﺫﺍﺕ ﳐﺎﻃــﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟـﻴﺔ )ﺍﳌﺴـﺎﳘﲔ ﳛﺼـﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻮﻥ ﲦﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺗﻘـﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﺑـﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻵﺟـﺎﻝ ﺗـﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋـﻊ ﻗﺼـﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟـﻞ ﻭﲢﻮﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻳﻮﻥ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻄﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻃﻮﻳﻠـﺔ ﺍﻷﺟـﻞ‪ .‬ﳑـﺎ ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ‪ .‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻏﲑ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺮﺓ )ﺍﳌﺘﺬﺑﺬﺑﺔ( ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﳍــﺎ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺣــﺮﺝ ﰲ ﺻــﻨﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣــﺎﺕ ﺣــﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺴــﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟــﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﲡﻤــﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻨﻮﻥ ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺭﲥﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﺪﻳﻮ�ﻴﺘﻬﻢ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﲤﻠـﻚ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﳍـﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﻳﻀـﻊ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﲔ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﻭﻣﻼﺀﺓ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬

‫ƒ ﲢﻘـﻴﻖ ﺳـﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﻗـﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﱪ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ �ﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺿــﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﻓــﻼﺱ ”‪ .“Default‬ﺍﻟﺘﺼــﻔﻴﺔ ﺗــﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺪﻫــﻮﺭ ﺃﺳــﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍ�ﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻑ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ ﻣﺸـﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻮﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠـﻴﺔ‪ /‬ﺍﳌـﺘﻮﳘﺔ( ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺮﻭﺏ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬

‫ﺳـﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﻑ ﻭ�ﻮﻋـﻴﺔ ﳏﺎﻓﻈـﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﻔﺎﺫ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﻋﺪﻡ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺘﻪ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ �ﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫ƒ ﺧﺼــﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﻮﻓــﺮ ﺍﻟﻘــﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟــﱵ ﺗــﻨﻈﻢ �ﻈــﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋــﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟــﺘﺎﱄ ﻣــﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﳘــﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﺻــﻞ ﻫــﺬﺍ ﺍﻟــﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺬﺑــﺬﺏ‪ .‬ﻋــﺪﻡ ﻣﻘــﺪﺭﺓ ﻣﺼــﺮﻑ ﻋــﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺘﻌﻬﺪﺍﺗﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﲪﺎﻳــﺔ ﻣﻮﺩﻋــﻲ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ‪ :‬ﺗــﺄﻣﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋــﻊ ﻳ ـﺰﻳﺪ ﻣــﻦ ﻣﺸــﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃــﺮﺓ ﻟــﺪﻯ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ƒ ﻟﻸﺳـﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻛـﺮ ﲣﻀـﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﺻـﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﳐﺎﻃـﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺫﻟـﻚ ﻷﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﻏـﲑ ﻣـﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣـﻨﻪ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ �ﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺮﻑ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻓـﺮﺽ ﻗﻮﺍﻋـﺪ ﺍﺧﺘـﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﶈـﺎﻓﻆ ﻣـﺜﻞ �ﺴـﺐ ﺍﻟﱰﻛـﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺴـﻤﻮﺣﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻓـﺮﺽ ﺣـﺪﻭﺩ ﺩ�ﻴﺎ ﻟﺮﲰﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻓﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺽ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ‬
‫ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻑ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ƒ ﺗﻘﻠــﻴﺺ ﺍﻟــﺮﻓﻊ ﺍﳌــﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟــﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣــﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴــﺎﳘﲔ ﻳــﺘﺤﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺗﻜﺎﻟــﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃـﺮﺓ‪،‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻣﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﳓﻮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺄﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻔﻴﺰ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈـﻴﻢ ﺍﻟـﺘﺤﻮﻃﻲ ﻣﻜﻠـﻒ‪ :‬ﺇﱃ ﺭﻓـﻊ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﻋـﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴـــﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـــﱵ ﳛـــﺒﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌـــﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻟﺘﻘﻠـــﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃـــﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻌـــﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪Moral‬‬
‫‪ .Hazard‬ﻟﻜـﻦ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠـﻴﻞ ﻛﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﲢﻮﻳـﻞ ﺍﻻﺩﺧـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﺣـﱰﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻠﻜـﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠـﻴﻞ ﳎـﺎﻝ ﺃﺧـﺬ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺷـﺮﺍﻑ ﻳـﺒﲏ ﻋـﻠﻰ ﻣﻌـﺎﻳﲑ ﻣﻌـﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌـﱪﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟـﺮﻏﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻄﺮﺡ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧـﺮ ﺍﻹﺷـﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻟـﺘﺤﻮﻁ �ﺘـﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻌـﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﱰﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻹﺷــﺮﺍﻑ ﳏــﺪﻭﺩ ﲟﻘــﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣــﺎﺕ ﺍﳌــﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴــﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟــﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣــﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻗـﻴﻘﺔ ﺣـﻮﻝ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧـﲑﺓ ﺃﻥ ﲡﻌـﻠﻬﺎ ﺳـﺮﻳﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﲔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﳑﺎ ﳛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﲔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻭﻣﻨﻊ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳍﺸﺎﺷﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣــﺔ ﺍﳌﺼــﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻬﻤــﺎ ﺗﻌــﺪﺩﺕ ﺃﺳــﺒﺎﲠﺎ ﺗﺘﻤــﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻋــﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻘــﺪﺭﺓ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓــﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣـﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﻳﻄﻠـﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﻮﻥ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﻭﺩﺍﺋﻊ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻑ ﺃﻗﻞ‬
‫ﻣــﻦ ﻣﻌــﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔـﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋــﻊ )ﲢﻮﻳــﻞ ﺻــﺎﰲ ﻟــﻠﻤﻮﺩﻋﲔ(‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻟــﻚ ﻋــﻦ ﻃـﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺤﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺿﲔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﳛـﺪﺙ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳍﺸﺎﺷﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﳝﻜــﻦ ﺇﺟــﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟــﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺼــﺎﰲ ﻟــﻠﻤﻮﺩﻋﲔ ﻋــﻦ ﻃ ـﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻘــﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟــﱵ ﺗﻨــﺘﻬﻲ‬
‫ﺁﺟﺎﳍﺎ ﻟﻜﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻀﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻛﺒﲑﺍً ﻭﳌﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﳚﱪﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻣﻨﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻜﻮ�ﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ƒ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ )ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺔ(‬
‫ƒ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﺪﻩ ﻳﻨﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ )ﺍﳍﺸﺎﺷﺔ(‬
‫ƒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ �ﺎﲨﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﺸﺎﺷﺔ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ƒ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﳒﻤﺖ ﻋﻦ ﺻﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬

‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ )ﺍﻻ�ﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ(‬

‫ƒ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ‬

‫ƒ ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠـﻴﺺ ﺭﲝـﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﱰﺿـﲔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟـﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻭﲢﻮﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺪﺭﳚﻴﺎً ﺇﱃ ﺩﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻭﻡ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ƒ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﳋـﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﳌﻔـﺎﺟﻲﺀ ﻟـﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ �ﺎﺟﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺻﻮﻝ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﻞ ﺃﻭ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍ�ﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ �ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻭﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ )ﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﻉ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺗﻀﻌﻒ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﲢـﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺼـﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺯﻣـﺔ ﻣﺼـﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ‬
‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻳﻀﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﻃﻔﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺮﺍﺽ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﻲﺀ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻪ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ƒ �ﺎﺟﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻹﻗﺮﺍﺽ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻟﺮﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ �ﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻳﺼـﻌﺐ ﺍﻟـﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﻣـﺎ ﺑـﲔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃـﺮ ﺍﳉـﻴﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺴـﻴﺌﺔ ﻷﻥ ﰲ ﻇـﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳـﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻔﺮﺓ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ )ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ(‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﲢـﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻣـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻋـﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗـﻨﻔﺠﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻌﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﳖﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﻳﺆﺛــﺮ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺍﻟــﺜﻘﺔ ﻭﺍ�ﻘــﺎﺽ ﺭﲝــﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼــﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻳﻘﻠــﻞ ﻗــﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻀــﻤﺎ�ﺎﺕ ‪ Collated‬ﻭﺗﺮﻛــﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻮﻳﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫�ﻈﺎﻡ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ‬

‫ƒ �ﻈــﺎﻡ ﺳــﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼــﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺜﺒــﺖ ﻭﺣـﺮﻳﺔ ﺍ�ــﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣــﻮﺍﻝ ﻳـﺰﻳﺪ ﻣــﻦ ﻫﺸﺎﺷــﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻟﻠﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻗﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ �ﻀﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺃ�ﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺮ�ﺔ )ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ( ﻳﻘﻴﺪ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺸﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻹﻣﱪﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭ�ﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ” ﻋﺘﺒﺔ ” ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﲢﺬﻳﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﲢﺘﺴـﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺘـﺒﺔ ﺑﺘﺪ�ـﻴﺔ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻹﺷـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﻃـﺌﺔ �ﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻌـﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﲠﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷـﺮ ﻣﺮﻛـﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺬﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﳛﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ )ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺘﺒﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭ�ﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ” ﻋﺘﺒﺔ ” ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﲢﺬﻳﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﲢﺘﺴـﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺘـﺒﺔ ﺑﺘﺪ�ـﻴﺔ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻹﺷـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﻃـﺌﺔ �ﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻌـﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﲠﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷـﺮ ﻣﺮﻛـﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺬﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﳛﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ )ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ƒ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺘﺒﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ �ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻻﻳﺪﺍﻉ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

‫ƒ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ :‬ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ƒ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ ٦‬ﻭ ‪ 8‬ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ‪.‬‬

‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬

 ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬ ‫‪%17‬‬

‫‪1985-‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺒﺎ�ﻴﺎ‬
‫‪1977‬‬

‫‪%11‬‬
‫‪1991-‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﻠﻨﺪﺍ‬
‫‪1994‬‬

‫‪%4‬‬
‫‪1991-‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻳﺪ‬
‫‪1994‬‬
‫)‪ %2-3‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫‪1984-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳــــــــــــــــﺎﺕ‬
‫‪(1990‬‬ ‫‪157‬‬ ‫‪1991‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
 ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺴﻠﺴﻼﺕ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻛﻠﻔﺘﻬﺎ ‪ %10‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫‪%20‬‬ ‫‪-1994‬‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺰﻭﻳﻼ‬
‫‪%20‬‬ ‫‪-1995‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬

‫‪%25‬‬ ‫‪91-88‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺝ‬

‫‪ 71‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫)ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺷﺮﻕ‬
‫ﺃ�ﺪﻭ�ﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬
‫‪ %50-48‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺳﻴﺎ(‬
‫د‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺒﺎس – اﻟﻤﻌﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬