CHAPiriER » 6

SWOT ANALYSIS, FINDINGS,

CONCLOSIONS, A N D
RECOMMENDATIONS
 CHAPTER 6

SWOT ANALYSIS, FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

No other management tool arguably encapsulates, consolidates and presents a snapshot of a

situation, an industry, a product or a service as does the SWOT analysis. Therefore as the thesis
approaches its conclusion, fulfilling its last objective, below is presented an account of the
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

6.1 SWOT ANALYSIS

According to a definition in ((I) Investopedia)', "SWOT analysis is a tool that identifies the
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of an organization". Specifically, SWOT is a
basic, straightforward model that assesses what an organization can and cannot do as well as its
potential opportunities and threats at a given point in time. The SWOT analysis in this study is
compiled from personal observations, research findings of the present study as well as opinions
of sample farmers, experts and survey of literature.

6.1.1 STRENGTHS

The major strengths of the apple industry in Himachal Pradesh are as follows:

1. Vast domestic market for apple due to limited availability of areas for the production
of such fruits in the country.

2. Existence of fairly well developed institutional framework for the development of

horticulture in general and apple in particular in the form of research, extension, credit,
marketing, processing and communication infrastructure.

3. Nearness to the main distributing wholesale market at Delhi.

4. Superior taste and aroma of Himachal apple as compared to imported varieties.

5. An overall high literacy rate of the state augers well for receptivity of any form of
training and communication.

6. Minimal use of chemical sprays for orchard operations like weeding, thinning etc. as
most of these are carried out manually.

Source: http://www.investopedia.coiT).

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7. Low use of chemical fertilizers and other sprays results in fruit which is a healthier
alternative to the more attractive imported fruit in the market.

8. Government support for horticultural activities as it is considered a thrust area in the

state as well as the national agricultural policies.

6.1.2 WEAKNESSES

1. Small and scattered land holdings. It is verified through hypothesis A that profitability
is influenced by the size of land holding. As the size of land holding is progressively
decreasing, it constitutes one of the main factors for declining profitability.

2. As per the review of literature, apple cultivation is mainly on marginal land with low
soil productivity.

3. Lack of irrigation facilities due to scarce availability of water resources and steep
gradient of hills.

4. Lack of micro-climatic approach for the development of fruit plantations of

different apple varieties. This is verified by analyzing the variety mix whereby it is
observed that apple farms in both the districts are completely dominated by the
Delicious cultivars and two varieties in particular which are the Royal Delicious and the
Red Delicious.

5. Widespread natural vagaries like drought, hail storms, frost, etc.

6. Serious gaps in the application of advanced horticultural technologies for increasing

horticultural production and improving quality and productivity. No supplementary
pollination is reported, no supplementary irrigation is reported, grading and packaging is
done manually and transportation in ordinary trucks. No refrigerated transport or cold
store use has been reported for storage of harvested fruit.

7. Lack of scope for the mechanization of the horticulture industry for timely execution
of various operations and savings in labor costs due to the topography and small holding
sizes.

8. High post harvest losses. Cull fruit reported in district Shimla and Kullu was 18.02 per
cent and 25 per cent respectively.

a. Lack of modem post harvest management systems.

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b. Very high temperature differentials in the producing areas and consuming markets,
resuhing in high post harvest losses during transport and distantly located orchard
from the main roads necessitating manual / animal transportation of the produce.

9. Concentration on domestic markets resulting in lack of quality consciousness amongst

the growers.

10. Inadequacies of technologies specially suited to the areas.

11. Poor quality planting material including seeds, varieties and rootstocks.

12. Wide gap in technology available and its actual application in the field.

13. Low density plantation, gaps and wastage of space. This is verified since the density of
plantation was reported to be 252 plants per hectare which indicates moderate density.

14. Moisture stress at critical periods of plant and finit growth since most of the orchards
are rain fed.

15. Inadequate plant nutrition and organic matter. This is verified through hypothesis K. It
was verified that apple orchards in Himachal Pradesh are not being nourished optimally.

16. Lack of integrated pest management. It is verified through hypothesis J that the
expenditure on pest and diseases is not aligned with the incidence of reported pests and
diseases.

17. Erratic availability of labor.

18. Post harvest quality controls almost non-existent resulting in considerable wastage and
damage.

19. Lack of conscious brand building and positioning in the market resulting in lack of
customer pull for Himachal apples.

20. Absence of pre cooling and cold storage at the orchard and during transportation.

21. Long distance between production and major consumption areas having rough, rugged
and poorly maintained roads.

22. High cost of basic packing material and other inputs.

23. Lack of sales and publicity campaigns to build preference for Himachal apples.

24. Inadequacy of orientation and training in new technologies.

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6.1.3 OPPORTUNITIES

Although in the foreseeable future, the domestic market will continue to be the main plank of
Horticulture Industry of Himachal Pradesh, yet opportunities do exist in the adjoining countries
of SAARC, West Asian Region and Middle East for the export of Himachal apple in the future.
As the level of pesticide and fertilizer use in Himachal fruit industry is quite minimal as
compared to other countries, opportunities exist for developing organic production of apple fruits
in suitable areas for export marketing by affecting some changes in existing production
technologies. Integrated pest management could have a big role to play in this area.

The general increase in income levels and improvement in the standard of living of population in
the country has resulted in increasing awareness about the nutritional value of fruits as protective
foods. Similarly increasing foreign tourist traffic into the country has also resulted in increase in
the demand for fruits. This trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future thereby expanding
the market demands of apple fruits.

There is a wide scope for the value addition of horticultural commodities including apple
produced in Himachal Pradesh, through diversification of existing processing industry.

There are opportunities of industry linked horticulture production through suitable forward and
backward linkages like production for processing, both for the domestic and export markets.

Opportunities exist for the value addition in the horticulture industry through adoption of
improved post harvest management, packing and storage technologies for improving shelf-life,
reducing losses during transport and packaging and increasing the marketing season/period in the
year.

There is immense scope and potential for increasing production and productivity of apple by
raising certified and quality planting material for commercial propagation as the same holds key
in the profitability of orcharding.

The increasing trend of corporate bulk buying promises convenient marketing and higher returns
for the farmer.

6.1.4 THREATS

Increase in the competition from the foreign producers in the fruit trade even in the domestic
market in the present scenario whence the WTO has become fully active. Increase in the inter-
state competition for the marketing of apple.

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1. Increasing competition from apple coming from otiier states especially Jammu and
Kashmir.
2. Decreasing price differentials between the domestic and imported varieties of apple for
the retail consumer.
3. Likely change in the policy of the central/state governments for fiirther reduction in
import duties, subsidies and minimum support prices for horticultural produce in
response to the global demands
4. Likely adverse effect on horticulture industry due to changing envirormient as a result
of global warming and green-house effect.

With the above SWOT analysis the three stated objectives of the study stand fiilfilled. The rest of
the chapter is devoted to a consolidated presentation of all research findings of the current study.

6.2 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

This study titled, "Impact of skills management on the sustainability of apple orchards in
Himachal Pradesh" made an attempt to understand the operational efficiency of apple farming in
Himachal Pradesh by scrutinizing basic operations in the two highest apple producing districts
namely Shimla and Kullu which together account for 65 per cent of the total area under apple and
contribute about 85 per cent of the total apple produced in the State. This farm level study
presented the perspective of a layman looking at apple farming as a business enterprise. The first
step was to uncover controllable areas which were important for profitability yet were not
optimally managed to zero in on specific training needs. The relationship of such areas with
profitability was established statistically. It was proven that there exist many crucial areas which
are not optimized and will benefit from better management of skills. So it follows that it is indeed
possible to bring about a positive impact on productivity, profitability and thus sustainability of
the apple industry of Himachal Pradesh by managing these areas more skillfiilly.

The project began with an attempt to understand the importance of the apple industry to the state
by working out and studying the trends in the area, production and productivity of apple over a
period of time. This was followed by studying the status of apple in the state agriculture,
horticulture and finally isolating the individual contribution of the fruit to the Gross State
Domestic Product. Then the relationship between the GSDP and trends exhibited by area under
apple, production and productivity was studied.

The section also touched upon the sectoral contribution of primary, secondary and tertiary sectors
to the State economy. The primary sector which includes agriculture, forest & logging, fishing
and mining & quarrying contributes about one fifth of the State GSDP. The contribution of

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primary sector is progressively declining while the reverse is true for the secondary and tertiary
sectors. The aim was to get an idea of persistent trends that could lead to a better understanding
of the industry.

6.2.1 FINDINGS REGARDING AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY

TRENDS AND INFERENCES

Secondary data for a period of 20 years; between 1987-88 and 2007-08 regarding area,
production and productivity of apple was treated to 'time series analysis'. The findings revealed
that after eliminating trends the values of area under apple were observed to be increasing which
can be attributed to the continuing importance enjoyed by apple farming in the state and exhibits
the status of tliis industry as a thrust area by subsequent govenunents. It was observed that after
eliminating trends the values of apple production did not follow any fixed pattern. There were
drastic positive & negative swings. Similarly, after eliminating trends it was observed that the
values of productivity did not follow any fixed pattern either and there were drastic positive &
negative swings which appear to be because of the volatility of production figures during this
period since these periods coincide with the volatile production years whereas no such trend is
seen in the 'area' factor.

6.2.1.1 Findings Regarding Importance of Apple in the GSDP of Himachal Pradesh

For the period 1980-81 to 2007-08, the findings revealed that the average value of GSDP for
Himachal Pradesh was Rs. 917977.6 lakh. The average value of agriculture for the period was
Rs. 191151.21 lakh. The average contribution of Agriculture to the GSDP was 25.25 per cent.
The average value of horticulture for the period was Rs. 78955.07 lakh. The average contribution
of Horticulture to the GSDP was 7.37 per cent. The average value of apple in absolute terms was
Rs. 36224.14 lakh. The average per cent contribution of apple to Horticulture was 63.9 per cent.
The average contribution of apple to Agriculture was 17.27 per cent and consequently the
average contribution of apple to the GSDP of Himachal Pradesh was 4.64 per cent.

The findings reinforce that apple production has a positive rub off on the GSDP of Himachal
Pradesh. The contribution as revealed was mainly due to the quantity produced and not due to
efficient use of resources especially land. The quantity produced showed an increase with an
increase in the area under production and therefore was mirrored in the GSDP graph. This carmot
be considered as a sustainable option since the potential area which can be brought under apple is
limited. The contribution of apple needs to stem from its efficient cultivation to ensure long term
sustainability.

On analyzing the compound annual growth rates of GSDP, Agriculture, Horticulture and Apple,

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it was observed that on the whole for the entire reference period of 27 years (1980-81 to 2007-
08) the growth of the value of horticultural output was maximum at 18.77 per cent followed by
value of apple output at 16.67 followed by the GSDP and finally by value of agricultural output
which were 14.7 and 12.27 per cent per annum respectively. The growth in the value of
horticultural output is more than that of output of apple signifying the rising contribution of fruits
other than and in addition to apple. During the reference period, on an average, the
contribution of agriculture to the GSDP declined by 14.24 per cent whereas the
contribution of horticulture and apple increased by 5.37 and 1.45 per cent respectively.
This highlights the rising importance of fruits in addition to apple.

Within the agricultural mix the contribution of horticulture has increased tremendously during
this time and exhibited an increase of 37.9 per cent. Per cent contribution of apple in agriculture
during this period exhibited an increase of 13.9 per cent whereas the relative importance of apple
in the horticultural mix has declined by 27.6 per cent. This is so because in the year 1980-81
horticultural output was nearly monopolized by apple whereas in 2007-08 the horticultural
scenario has diversified although apple retains its coveted position as the most important
horticultural commodity of the State. The contribution of apple to the GSDP has risen by 1.45
which is no mean feat as the GSDP itself has undergone tremendous growth of 3957.7 per cent
during this period. The GSDP in the year 1980-81 was Rs.79404 lakh and in the year 2007-08 it
increased to Rs. 3221995 lakh.

The study focused on those controllable factors which if managed better have the potential to
create a positive impact on the productivity and profitability of apple. So the next step was to
enumerate the various controllable areas of orchard management termed as skills which could
have a significant contribution towards productivity and or profitability of apple farms. This
became possible after an extensive review of literature which also revealed a number of
recommendations and benchmarks in concrete terms regarding management of these skills.

All major controllable factors from the point of view of this study were consolidated into two
categories of skills; General operational skills and Agronomic skills.

General operational skills comprised of four sub-skills namely 'land utilization pattern', 'planting
system', 'input-output analyses and 'human resource management skills' as its sub-skills.

Agronomic skills were broadly segregated into three groups namely 'plant management', 'soil
management' and 'weather management' skills and together these three skills consisted of nine
sub-skills.

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The primary data collected from the sample farms of districts Shimla and Kullu was subjected to
statistical treatment and a total of twelve hypotheses were formulated and tested. Comparisons
were made with available benchmarks to reach a conclusion whether there exists a gap so far as
the recommendations and actual practices are concerned. This gap was translated into training
areas which incidentally were found to be similar for some skills and quite different for others in
the two districts. The findings from the districts are taken together and to represent the scenario
for the State and hence summarized as such within each section of the report.

6.2.2 CONCLUSIONS REGARDING GENERAL OPERATIONAL, INPUT-OUTPUT

ANALYSIS AND HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SKILLS

A total of five hypotheses were designed and tested in this section. Their conclusions are
presented below.

Hypothesis A-The intra and inter district comparison of size and profitability proved clearly that
the profitability of a farm was proportional to its size. It would not be accurate to crystallize
the upper and lower limit of the size of land holding to which this relationship holds true with the
limited range of farm sizes of the existing sample. Nevertheless between the smallest (0.2 ha) and
the largest size of farm (12 ha) within the sample, it can be inferred that profitability will show a
positive correlation. Large sized farms are found to be most profitable followed by medium and
small farms in that order. It is widely reported that land fragmentation is a rising phenomenon,
therefore on the basis of the above analysis, it would not be farfetched to assume that the
progressively declining sizes of holdings is contributing towards declining profitability.
Therefore H Ai stands accepted. In other words, it is proven that profitability is significantly
influenced by the size of land holding.

Hypotheses B and C - For hypotheses B and C, it was anticipated that the profitability of farms
may not depend upon the quantum of harvest rather on some external market dynamics and
probably on the quality of produce. The results of 'Pearson's correlation analysis' proved that
there was a direct correlation between quantum of produce and total profit but the correlation
between quality of produce and total profit was not significant though positive. In the light of the
above findings, the null hypothesis was accepted for hypothesis C and the alternate hypothesis
stands accepted for hypothesis B. It may thereby be stated with certainty that the profitability of
Himachal Pradesh apple orchards depends upon the quantity of produce rather than quality.
There is a possibility that significant quality differences do not exist within the sample as it
represents a small area with similar agro-climatic conditions or probably that there is a lack of
differentiation and positioning of the produce on the basis of quality.

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Hypotheses D and E - In the case of hypothesis D it was believed that the prioritization of
expenditure on different operations in the two districts resulted from differences in local and
situational conditions like a difference in variety and age-mix of farms to name a couple.
Similarly in case of hypothesis E the assumption was that since the same operations are carried
out for apple farming in both the districts it should be possible to design a common 'optimum'
expenditure strategy that would result in optimum returns. It was not envisaged that a difference
in expenditure pattern would produce a significant impact on the overall profitability. However
in the case of hypothesis D the alternative hypothesis proved to be correct. It was revealed that
difference in priority areas does influence the profitability of the two districts significantly since
it appears that in some areas the expenditure seems to be in tune with profitability and
contributing to it whereas in others it seems to be having a negative impact. This holds true for
farms of both districts and even different size categories within each district. It proves that each
district faces unique challenges. Similar findings for hypothesis E lead to the conclusion that
although the basic operations are the same in the districts, the situations and challenges differ. A
customized expenditure strategy rather than a general which is common to both districts would
more likely lead to optimum returns. This is so because it is observed that even within each
district the different expenditure patterns have resulted in different profitabilities.

Therefore in the course of the investigations that in hypotheses A, B, D and E the null
hypotheses failed to be accepted therefore all the alternate hypotheses were accepted. In case of
hypothesis C the null hypothesis was accepted.

It follows fi-om the above that 'Profitability' of apple farms in Himachal Pradesh is significantly
influenced by 'the size of land holding', the 'quantum of production', 'difference in priority
areas', but is not influenced significantly by the 'quality of produce'. It is also proved that a
'customized' rather than generalized expenditure strategy will lead to optimum profitability. The
above results hold true for both the districts.

6.2.3 CONCLUSIONS REGARDING AGRONOMIC SKILLS

A total of seven hypotheses were designed and tested in this section. The hypotheses along with
their conclusions are stated below:

Hypothesis F-To test hypothesis F, the paired z test for the comparison of means was used. It
was verified that the mean of difference between the observed proportion of both commercial
and pollinizer plants with the recommended proportion was highly significant. This was found to
be true for both the districts. It emerged that whereas the commercial plants exceeded the
recommended proportions significantly, the pollinizer plants were critically below the
recommendations. The results of z test for hypothesis F verified that the proportion of pollinizer

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plants was much below the recommendations. Apple farms of both the districts had
disproportionately high proportion of commercial varieties. Therefore the alternate hypothesis
was accepted in case of hypothesis F.

In other words the variety mix skill is not optimized in both the districts and shows
disproportion in both the commercial and pollinizer varieties. While the commercial varieties
are disproportionately higher than recommended, the pollinizer varieties are verified to be
critically below the recommended proportion. The variety mix skill needs up-gradation.

Hypothesis G -Whether such a finding was reflected in the productivity or not was tested under
hypothesis G with the help of Pearson's correlation analysis. District Shimla exhibited a positive
and highly significant correlation between 'Total Pollinizer Percentage & Productivity' (p-value
< .01). District Kullu also exhibited a positive but non-significant correlation between 'Total
Pollinizer Percentage & Productivity' (p-value > .05). Furthermore the large and medium sized
farms of district Shimla exhibit a positive and significant correlation between percentage of
pollinizers and productivity. The small farms show a negative but non-significant correlation. In
district Kullu, the large and small farms show a positive but non-significant correlation and the
medium sized farms show a negative and non-significant correlation.

This means that in district Shimla, farms having a relatively higher pollinizer percentage show
higher productivity and vice-versa. Since there are no concrete boundaries separating individual
farms, the influence of variety mix on adjoining small farms is likely to be felt to the maximum
extent. So if the neighboring farms will benefit from each others' pollinizer plants. Experts opine
that factors such as the direction of wind, presence of mountainous curves etc all influence the
passage of pollen. This might explain the negative but non-significant correlafion of small farms
in district Shimla. In district Kullu farms having a higher pollinizer percentage show a higher
productivity but not to a statistically significant extent.

In the light of the above findings, the alternate hypothesis G is accepted for district Shimla but
the null hypothesis is accepted for district Kullu. In other words, the low proportion of pollinizer
plants appears to significantly affect the productivity of Shimla farms and is affecting
productivity of Kullu farms too but it seems not to any statistically significant level.

To test hypothesis H Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted at the district level as well as
within size categories of farms. It emerged that in district Shimla among Large Orchards the
correlation between Pollinizer Percentage & Profit was positive but not significant (p-value >
.05). Among the medium orchards the correlation between the 'Pollinizer Percentage & Profit'
was positive and highly significant (p-value < .01) Among the small orchards the correlation
between the 'Pollinizer Percentage & Profit' was Negative and significant (p-value < .05).

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This may be explained on the basis of the lower market price and demand for apples of
pollinizing varieties which tend to be on the sour side and hence demand a low price. In case of
small farms, the advantage of a higher pollinizing proportion may not be exhibited due to two
reasons, one, that a higher number of pollinizer plants also means a higher proportion of non-
commercial fruit which fetches a low price. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, roughly one quarter
of all pollinizing plants in Himachal Pradesh are in their non-bearing stage and therefore not
contributing to their potential.

In the case of district Kullu, among Large Orchards the correlation between Pollinizer Percentage
& Profit was positive but not significant (p-value > .05). Among Medium Orchards the
correlation between Pollinizer Percentage & Profit was positive but not significant (p-value >
.05). Among Small Orchards the correlation between Pollinizer Percentage & Profit was positive
but not significant (p-value > .05) thereby implying that Pollinizer Percentage has a positive
impact on Profit in the district but not to any significant extent.

Expert opinion and survey of literature indicate that a specific proportion of pollinizing plants are
needed to ensure optimum fruit set in the otherwise self sterile apple varieties. This means that in
the absence of such a condition there is a good possibility of low fruit set leading to low
productivity and thereby low profitability.

However the above results exhibit that correlation of pollinizer proportion with profitability is
exhibited only by three categories out of six furthermore it is highly significant only for medium
farms of district Shimla. As a result of that it is not possible to state with certainty that the
percentage of poUinizers does significantly influence the profitability of apple farms in either of
the districts or in Himachal Pradesh. This forms the basis for the acceptance of the null
hypothesis H. It may be stated with 95 percent confidence level that in the survey year, the low
proportion of pollinizer plants in Himachal Pradesh did not appear to influence the profitability
of apple farms to any significant extent.

It may however be stated that the skill of pollination management is not optimized and needs up-
gradation.

The statements of the next two hypotheses are given below. Pearson's correlation analysis was
used to test both the hypotheses.

H IQ: Expenditure on pests and diseases does not influence Profit

H Ii: Expenditure on pests and diseases influences profit.

H JQ: Expenditure on plant protection is aligned with the incidence of pests and diseases.
H Jj: Expenditure on plant protection is not aligned with the incidence of pests and diseases.

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It was observed that the correlation between (a) 'protection expenditure' and 'profit', (b)
'incidence of major insects' and 'total incidence of disease', (c) 'incidence of major pathological
diseases' and 'total incidence of diseases' and (d) 'incidence of viral diseases' and 'total
incidence of diseases' is positive and highly significant at both the district and at the State level.

This implies that an increase in protection expenditure will result in a corresponding increase in
profit. It can be extended to mean that the farmers in both the districts are actively tackling the
pest and diseases problem and their efforts are reflected in the profits. The positive and highly
significant correlation indicates that there is still scope to influence profit by increasing the
protection expenditure or that protection expenditure although effective is not yet optimized. It
may still be skillfully manipulated to make a further impact on profit. The remaining three
correlations merely indicate that an increase in the 'incidence of major insects',' major
pathological diseases', and 'incidence of viral diseases' is contributing towards an increase in the
'total incidence of diseases'.

Therefore in the case of hypothesis I, the alternate hypothesis is accepted.

The findings regarding the hypothesis J showed that the incidence of 'major insects' and
incidence of 'major pathological diseases' exhibited a highly significant correlation in district
Shimla and the State of H.P. This could be an area for further research and may reveal a cause
and effect relation between major insects which could possibly emerge as carriers of major
pathological diseases. However, for district Kullu the result was non-significant.

Correlation between 'protection expenditure' and 'incidence of major insects' was non-
significant at both the district and State level. Same is the case with 'profit' and 'incidence of
major insects' and also 'incidence of nutritional disorders' and 'total incidence of diseases'. This
implies that the protection expenditure is not aligned with the incidence of major insects
reported. The link between major insects and profit is also not significant. Lastly, 'incidences of
reported nutritional disorders' are not a significant part of 'total incidence of diseases'. The
above inferences hold true for both the district and State level findings.

Correlation between 'protection expenditure' and 'incidence of major pathological diseases'

shows a positive and significant correlation in district Shimla but is non-significant in district
Kullu and at the State level. This implies that protection expenditure is increasing possibly as a
response to an increase in the 'major pathological diseases' and vice-versa. Therefore for district
Shimla it may be inferred that the expenditure on plant protection is aligned with the incidence of
major pathological diseases. This however is not the case in district Kullu and at the State level.

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Correlation between 'protection expenditure' and 'incidence of viral diseases' is non-significant
in district Shimla but exhibits a negative and significant relationship in district KuUu and at the
State level. This may indicate misalignment of plant protection expenditure on the part of the
Kullu farmer. Since plants which are nutritionally deficient are indicated to be more prone to
viral diseases, it may indicate the possibility that apple plants in district Kullu may be
nutritionally compromised.

Correlation between 'protection expenditure' and 'incidence of nutritional disorders' is non-

significant in district Shimla and at the overall State level but is negative although non-
significant in district Kullu. This implies a lack of priority for plant nutrition in district Shimla
but may indicate misalignment of expenditure in district Kullu. Plant protection expenditure in
district Shimla and at the State level is not related to the reporting of 'nutritional disorders' and
non-significant although negative in district Kullu.

Correlation between 'protection expenditure' and ' total incidence of diseases' is non-significant
in district Shimla and at the overall State level but is negative although non-significant in district
Kullu. This indicates a lack of targeted approach in both the districts more so in Kullu. Although
the farmers are spending on plant protection and this is reflected positively in the profits, the
expenditure is not addressing the actual problems optimally. This highlights a default approach to
plant protection by the farmers of the State.

Correlation between 'Profit' And 'Incidence of Major Pathological Diseases' is positive and
significant in district Shimla but non-significant in district Kullu and at the State level. This
points towards successful handling of major pathological diseases by the fanners of the State led
by the farmers of district Shimla. This also indicates that in district Shimla the more profitable
farms are reporting a higher incidence of major pathological diseases. It could mean a higher
degree of skill or more alertness and better strategy on the part of more profitable farms.

Correlation between 'Incidence Of Major Insects' And 'Incidence Of Major Pathological

Diseases' is highly significant in district Shimla and at the State level but non-significant in
district Kullu. This implies that farms reporting a higher incidence of major pathological diseases
also report a higher infestation of major insects.

Correlation between 'Incidence Of Major Insects' And 'Incidence Of Viral Diseases' is non-
significant in both the districts but exhibit a negative although non-significant correlation at the
State level. This implies that there is no link between major insects and viral diseases.

Correlation between 'Incidence Of Major Insects' And 'Incidence Of Nutritional Disorders' is

negative and highly significant in district Shimla and at the State level however it exhibits a

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negative and non-significant correlation in district Kullu. This implies that major insects prefer
attacking healthy plants.

Correlation between Incidence of Major Pathological Diseases and Incidence of Viral Diseases is
significant in district Shimla but negative and non-significant in district Kullu and at the State
level. Contradictory findings do not allow any meaningful inference regarding this point.

Correlation between Incidence of Major Pathological Diseases and Incidence of Nutritional

Disorder is negative but non-significant in district Shimla and at the State level and non-
significant in district Kullu. This again implies although not conclusively that healthy plants are
more prone to major pathological diseases.

Correlation between the Incidence of Major Pathological Diseases and Incidence of Nutritional
Disorder is significant in district Shimla, negative but non-significant in district Kullu and non-
significant at the State level. Again contradictory findings prevent a conclusive inference.

Conclusion: Pest and Disease Management as exhibited above and verified in the district wise
analysis of farms indicates a proactive and preventive approach as far as pest and disease control
is concerned. The expenditure on the same seems to be pre-determined and not related to the
actual problem. This displays the farmers' anxiety to avoid losses due to pests and diseases. This
is positive in the sense that the measures taken seem to be keeping the losses under check as
verified by a significant correlation between the plant protection expenditure and profit.
However, it is adding to avoidable expenditure which if corrected could lead to a higher
profitability. The root of the problem appears to be lack of knowledge and timely help regarding
problem identification and control. It is therefore recommended that to eliminate unnecessary
expenditure on plant protection and improve profitability, there is a need to shift focus from a
general to a more targeted approach. Expenditure needs to be incurred where it is actually
needed. This indicates a need for training up gradation and a more responsive support system in
the sphere of disease identification and control.

In the case of hypothesis J, Ho fails to be accepted therefore Ji is accepted. Alternatively it

can be stated conclusively that on the whole 'expenditure on plant protection is not aligned with
the reported incidence of pests and diseases' in Himachal Pradesh.

To assess the level of management of soil management skill, hypothesis K was proposed.

H Ko: H.P. apple farms are being nourished optimally as per recommendations.

H K|: H.P. apple farms are not being nourished optimally as per recommendations.

To test hypothesis K, paired z test was used for the comparison of means of the observed and

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recommended quantities of plant nutrients.

It emerged that in district Shimla the quantity of Observed quantity of FYM was significantly
low as compared to recommended FYM.

The difference of means was 78.56 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

Similarly the Observed quantity of CAN is significantly low as compared to recommended CAN.

The difference of means was .630 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

In district Shimla the Observed quantity of SP is significantly low as compared to recommended

SP. The difference of mean was 1.78 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

In district Shimla the Observed MOP was higher as compared to recommended MOP.

The difference of means was .150 which was statistically Not Significant (p-value>.05).

In district Kullu the Observed quantity of FYM was too low as compared to recommended FYM.

The difference of mean was 73 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

The Observed quantity of CAN was too low as compared to recommended CAN. The difference
of means was 2.72 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

The Observed quantity of SP was too low as compared to recommended SP. The difference of
means was 2.18 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

Furthermore the quantity of Observed MOP was too low as compared to recommended MOP.

The difference of means was .89 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

Therefore at the State level it was observed that the quantity of Observed FYM was too low as
compared to recommended FYM. The difference of means was 78.56 which was highly
significant (p-value<.01).

In HP the Observed quantity of CAN was too low as compared to recommended CAN.

The difference of means was .63 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

In HP the number of Observed quantity of SP was too low as compared to recommended SP.

The difference of means was 1.78 which was highly significant (p-value<.01).

In Himachal Pradesh the number of Observed dosage of MOP was higher as compared to the
recommended MOP. The difference of means was 0.15 which was statistically not significant (p-

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value>0.05)

The above findings clearly demonstrate that the Himachal Pradesh apple farms are not getting
nourishment as per the recommendations. Therefore it would be correct to conclude that nutrition
management is not optimized in the State. Hence, Hence HKo fails to be accepted as a result
HK] is accepted.

H LQ: Moisture Management Is an Under Developed Skill in Himachal Pradesh.

H Li: Moisture Management Skill is optimized in Himachal Pradesh.

Since there is no positive response for supplementary irrigation, it is apparent that irrigation is
completely dependent upon natural precipitation and the farmer is unable to mitigate the effects
of drought or flood conditions. However moisture conservation appears to be a priority as is
evident from the response to the query on mulching operation.

Hence HLo is accepted.

On the basis of the findings and analysis, the following hypotheses have been supported by
the findings and therefore accepted:

H Ai: Profitability is significantly influenced by the size of land holding.

H Bi: The Quantum of Harvest Influences Profitability.

H Co: Profitability is not influenced by the quality of produce.

H Dj: Difference in priority areas influences profitability of the two districts.

H Ei: A Common expenditure strategy is insufficient for profit optimization in Himachal

Pradesh.

H Fi: Variety mix skills in Himachal Pradesh apple orchards are not optimized and need up
gradation.

H GQ: Low percentage of pollinizers is not influencing productivity significantly - Accepted

for district KuUu.

H Gi: Low percentage of pollinizers is significantly influencing productivity - Accepted for

district Shimla.

H HQ: Low percentage of pollinizers is not influencing profitability significantly.

H Ji: Expenditure on plant protection is not aligned with the incidence of pests and
diseases.

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H Ki: H.P. apple farms are not being nourished optimally as per recommendations.

H LQ: Moisture Management Is an Under Developed Skill in Himachal Pradesh.

The following hypotheses could not be supported and failed to be accepted.

H AQ: Profitability is not influenced significantly by the size of land holding.

H BQ: The Quantum of Harvest does not Influence Profitability.
H C|: Profitability is influenced by the quality of produce.
H DQ: Difference in priority areas does not influence profitability of the two
districts.
H Ej: A Common expenditure strategy is insufficient for profit optimization in
Himachal Pradesh.
H FQ: Variety mix skills in Himachal Pradesh apple orchards are optimized and
do not need up gradation.
H Go: Low percentage of pollinizers is not influencing productivity significantly -
Rejected for district Kullu.
H Gi: Low percentage of pollinizers is significantly influencing productivity -
Rejected for district Shimla.
H Hi: Low percentage of pollinizers is significantly influencing profitability.
H JQ: Expenditure on plant protection is aligned with the incidence of pests and
diseases.
H KQI H.P. apple farms are being nourished optimally as per recommendations.
H Li: Moisture Management Skill is optimized in Himachal Pradesh.

6.3 AREAS IDENTIFIED FOR TRAINING

Identification of training areas is one of the main desired outcomes of the present study.
The underlying presumption was that augmentation and support in these areas would
result in improved productivity and profitability for the apple farmers of Himachal
Pradesh. Training areas have been identified on the basis of the analysis as well as by
assessing response to a direct question posed to the sample. The areas identified are
mentioned below. They represent weak links in the whole process of apple farming.

6.3.1 TRAINING AREAS IDENTIFIED BY THE FARMERS

Fields identified for training up-gradation by the growers were pest identification and
control and pruning. In district Shimla, the response was 50.00 per cent in favor of each
area while in district Kullu, 70 per cent farmers identified pest identification and control
92.00 per cent identified pruning of trees,

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6.3.2 TRAINING AREAS IDENTIFIED ON THE BASIS OF THE STUDY

1. As per hypothesis Ai, it is inferred that profitability is significantly influenced by the size
of land holding. Therefore farmers need to be counseled and convinced about
consolidation of scattered land holdings. Another way to optimize returns would be to
adopt the co-operative system of farming.

2. As per hypothesis Co, it is inferred that profitability is not influenced by the quality of
produce. This result is contrary to expectations. Logically better quality produce should
get premium price. Since the survey pertains to a single year and is restricted to a small
sample, it is not possible to reach a valid conclusion. However, the reasons could
possibly be one or more of the following:

i) The quality of produce within the sample farms does not vary significantly.

ii) There are shortcomings in the grading system.

iii) There is inadequate differentiation resulting in ambiguous positioning in the buyer's

mind.

iv) The post harvest operations of grading, packaging and labeling are not given due
importance.

1. Hypothesis D] and Ei prove that there exist operational areas in the sample farms which
demand priority treatment over others since their contribution towards output is
relatively more than others.

2. It follows from the above point that there is a need for an expenditure strategy and one
that is need based and contextualized rather than generalized. For this farmers would
need guidance as to the weightage of priority areas and further guidance regarding its
modification from time to time as per the varying conditions.

3. Training is required as to the correct proportion of different varieties especially now

since traditional plants are being replaced by spur and higher density plantations.

4. Due to majority holdings being small and in close proximity it is natural that poUinizers
grown in one farm or supplementary pollination methods like use of honey bees will
affect the neighboring farms as well. Therefore once again need for a cooperative
approach is felt.

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5. Farmers need training in variety management, nutrition management and moisture
management especially supplementary irrigation skills. According to the present study,
these skills appear to be undermanaged.

6. Regarding the pest and disease management skill, since most pests and diseases are
reported to be under control, it cannot be termed as an under managed skill. However,
the reporting of pests and diseases is not aligned to the expenditure incurred to combat
them. This indicates inefficient use of resources and is an area which needs to be
synchronized. This is possible only through timely expert help and improved knowledge
of farmers regarding pest and disease identification and control.

6.4 SUGGESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

1. In the study it is verified that size of landholding and profit are related. Therefore the
trend of bringing more area under apple cultivation should be continued as it is leading to
an overall increase in production. The criteria should be agro-climatic suitability of the
new area rather than mere expansion of existing plantations. The aim should be optimum
allocation of land resource.

2. The ultimate objective of apple farming needs to shift from maximizing production to
optimizing production with emphasis on efficient resource utilization.

3. Fragmentation of land cannot be stopped but management of land holdings as

cooperatives to optimize input costs and maximize outputs could be a way forward.

4. Production improvement strategies need to go hand in hand with better post harvest
management and optimized pest and disease management. With increased crop loads,
potential for losses due to pests and diseases would multiply manifold.

5. Findings of H4 forms a basis for the argument that customization of training would serve
the Himachal Pradesh apple farmer better than a standardized approach.

6. A customized expenditure strategy rather than a standardized one would more likely lead
to optimum returns.

7. To eliminate unnecessary expenditure and optimize profit it is recommended that the

pest and disease management strategy have a more targeted approach rather than the
currently followed general approach. Integrated pest management would be ideally
suited in this situation.

8. Although farmers were aware that recommendations for fertilizers and manures exist as a
majority of them quoted to be in possession of the 'package of practices', it is verified
that these recommendations are not followed. Non-availability is not named as a

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 problem. Ill affordability could be especially in a lean year. Lack of conviction regarding
benefits of correct nutrition could also be a possible reason. A more demonstrative
approach by the department of horticulture where the results of correct nutrition
management could be shown to the farmers at the village or block level is
recommended.

9. The soil and or leaf analysis report could be made the basis of fertilizer and manure
procurement to ensure optimum application of nutrients to the farm soil.

10. Community workshops conducted from time to time relevant to local problems as a
means of providing up-gradation of skills are recommended.

11. Himachal Pradesh has one of the highest penetration rates for mobile phones and
internet. The telecom reach can be gainfully utilized to pass on pertinent and timely
information as well as to provide guidance and technical information.

12. It is suggested that the proportion of pollinizer varieties be improved in the long run. In
the short run supplementary pollination needs to be adopted on a larger basis.

13. High quality, disease resistant plant material of a number of suitable varieties needs to
be made available since it is the primary factor of production. Everything else is
secondary.

14. High density plantation should be considered provided plant health and nutrition
management, moisture management, post harvest management and general orchard
management are improved. In the present scenario, density of plantation should not be
increased drastically. In the absence of proper management of crucial skills, it has the
potential to generate huge losses.

15. Regular field visits by Pest and Disease experts to identify and recommend correct and
specific measures would be highly recommended.

6.5 AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

A similar study conducted on a 'before and after' format taking response from the sample before
training intervention and again after it would clearly demonstrate the impact of management of
skills on the sustainability of Himachal Pradesh apple industry.

Alternatively the study could be conducted on two groups of farmers; one control which does not
undergo any training and the other experimental which undergoes skill up gradation through
training.

Study conducted on a sample consisting of farmers from all apple producing districts would
result in more accurate generalizations at the State level.

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A study involving repeated response of same sample over a number of years would project a
more accurate picture as the production is known to be erratic whereas the input costs are
constant.

However, despite the constraint of time and limitation of resources of an individual researcher,
the present study has been able to successfully meet its objectives. It has proved that despite the
major role of uncontrollable factors in apple production, better management of skills at the farm
level does have the potential to increase the productivity, profitability and sustainability of the
apple industry in Himachal Pradesh. The study has managed to identify tentative areas for
training in both the districts.

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