Free Throws

By: Sierra and Grace

Throughout chapter 6 we learned many definitions and equations. An example to

describe everything we learned would be, hospital records show that of patients suffering from a
certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will
recover?
A random variable is defined as a quantitative variable if the value of x takes on in a
given experiment or observation is a chance or random outcome. In our example the random
variable would be whether the patient lives or dies. This example would also be a discrete
random variable because it can take only a finite amount of number values. An example of a
continuous random variable would be measuring time because there are an infinite amount of
number of times that could be taken. Probability distribution is an assignment of probabilities to
each distinct value of a discrete random variable or to each interval of values of a continuous
random variable. In this example the probability distribution would be 50% because the patient
will either survive or die. There is no in between. A key component is that all the decimals from
the probability distribution must equal 1.
The steps used to find the mean in a binomial distribution equation is you enter the
outcomes in list 1 and the probabilities of that happening in list 2. Then you go to 1 variable
stats and go to calc and hit 1-Var STATS and then hit 𝐿1, 𝐿2 lastly hit enter and this will give you
the mean and standard deviation. The mean is shown as x bar and standard deviation is shown
as 𝜎. The mean tells us what the average of our values is while standard deviation tells us how
spread out our data value are. The expected value is what we expect to happen, it’s normally
equal to the mean. An example would be we would expect most of the patients to survive.
Some key points in a binomial experiment is a fixed number of trials (denoted as “n”). N
trials are independent and repeated under identical conditions. Each trail has only two
outcomes: success/failure. For each individual trial, the probability of success is the same. Goal
is to find the probability of R successes out of N trials. Our example meets all this criteria. N
represents the fixed number of trials. N= 6 in our example. P represents probability of success
which would be 0.25. Q represents the probability of failure which would be 0.75. Lastly, R
represents the number of successes. For no patients to recover it would be about a 0.17798
chance. For one patient to recover would be about a 0.35596 chance. And there is a very slim
chance that all 6 will recover.
There are a total of three different ways to compute a binomial distribution. These
methods include a table, formula, and a calculator. In the back of the book on page A3 there is a
chart. To read this chart you look at the N value on the side the problem is asking for. Then go
to the R row which the equation should give you. Lastly, the equation will tell you the P value
they are looking for. You just follow along with the chart and get your answer. The formula you
can use is √𝛴(𝑥 − 𝜇) 2 𝑃(𝑥). Or you can use your calculator to solve the problem. You would
use the same steps explained earlier. The mean for binomial distribution is the expected
number of successes of the data set. You can use the formula 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝. The number of trials is
represented by N while P represents the probability of success. An example would be flipping a
coin. The expected number of times you would flip a tail out of 100 would be 50 because there
is a 50% chance each time that you would flip either heads or tails. To use the equation you
would do 100(0.50) and get an answer of 50. The 50 means that that’s the expected number
you’d land on tails. Standard deviation is a numerical value of how widely the data values are
spread from each other. The formula that can be used is 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞. N represents the number of
trials, P is the probability of successes, Q is the probability of failure. An example would be
flipping a coin 10 times and expecting it to land on heads. N is 10, P is 0.50, Q is 0.50. Multiple
10(0.50)(0.50) and you should get 2.5. This number shows how spread apart getting heads or
tails is.

Sierra & Grace You make your free throws half of the time. If you end up attempting 16 free
throws in a contest, what is the probability you you make exactly 8? What is
the probability you make 3 or less?

This free throw scenario meets the criteria of a binomial experiment because it has a
fixed number of trials since there are 16 attempts at the free throws. The number of trials are
independent of each other because the outcome of one free throw does not affect any others.
This scenario also follows the criteria because there are only two outcomes, you miss the free
throw or make the free throw. For every trial/every free throw, the probability of success/making
the free throw is 50%. My situation follows the criteria because we are trying to find the
probability of making exactly eight and three or less free throws out of 16 attempts.
The first question in our problem asks what the probability is of making exactly 8/16 free
throws, if I make half of my shots.For the first part of our problem, n=16, r=8, and p=0.50. N,
which is the number of trials, is 16 because there are 16 attempts at shooting a free throw. R,
which is the number of successes, is eight because the problem asks what the probability of
making exactly eight free throws. P, which is the probability of success, is 0.50 because it says
we make free throws half the time. To find the probability of making exactly eight free throws out
of 16, I looked in my book to the page A3, which is the binomial probability distribution. I found
n=16, then went to r=8. From there I looked at p=0.50. The answer to the first part of our
problem is 0.196. Therefore, the probability that I would make exactly 8 shots if I make my free
throws half the time, is 19.6%.
The second question in our problem asks what the probability is of making three or less
free throws, if I make half of my shots.For the second part of our problem, n=16, r=0,1,2, and 3,
and p=0.50. N, which is the number of trials, is 16 because there are 16 attempts at shooting a
free throw. R, which is the number of successes, is zero, one, two, and three because the
problem asks what the probability of making three or less free throws. That means I have to add
all the individual probabilities of making zero, one, two, and three. P, which is the probability of
success, is 0.50 because it says we make free throws half the time. To find the probability of
making exactly three or less free throws out of 16, I looked in my book to the page A3, which is
the binomial probability distribution. I found n=16, then went to r=3. From there I looked at
p=0.50. The probability of making 3 out of 16 free throws, when I usually make 50%, is .009.
Then I looked the same n and p, but I looked at r=2. The probability of making 2 out of 16 free
throws, when I usually make 50%, is .002. Again, I looked the same n and p, but I looked at r=1.
The probability of making 1 out of 16 free throws, when I usually make 50%, is .000. When I
went to look at n=1, the probability was also .000. This means that the probability of making one
or zero shots out of 16 when I usually make 50%, is extremely low. To find my answer, I added
the probabilities of making three, two, one and zero shots out of 16. I added the numbers .009,
.002, .000, and .000. Together, these equal .011. Therefore, the probability that I would make
three or less shots out of 16, if I make my free throws half the time, is 1.1%.
I chose the method of looking at the binomial probability calculator because it was easily
accessible to me and more convenient than using the calculator. Because my number of trials
was 16, I was able to use the book. But in other situations where n is bigger, that is not an
option. In the context of shooting free throws, when you usually make half of your shots, you are
slightly likely (19.6%) to make exactly 8/16, which is half. On the other hand, making three or
less out of 16, when you usually make half, is very unlikely as it is 1.1% likely.