Why “Declinists” could be
ENTITLEMENTS “SQUEEZE”
right: Force planning threats
to the AVF
AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY
o Sea power and alliance in preventing
the rise of peer competitors in Asia and
Europe
o Counter-terrorism and insurgency
o Protection of the homeland
- Protect American lives and territory
- Ensure the free flow of commerce
- Maintain stability
- Protection of allies in the region
OBAMA Administration
o Force planning
- Current plans to cut major systems
in recruiting and retention benefits
- Threat-based planning (laging
handa) vs. Scenario- based
planning
Force planning problems
o 1. National Guard components were
neither dedicated to nor funded for
homeland defense
o 2. Long term cost of not re-capitalizing
equipment would be even greater than the
short-term costs
o 3. Increasing threats- cyber threats & post-
conflict stabilization
o 4. Long-term security environmental threat:
- Violent Extremism
- Rouge states possessing Weapon
of Mass Destruction (WMO)
- The rise of Military power challenger
states
FISCAL THREATS TO THE AVF: THE
America’s Debt
o General Budget: Estimated 50 trillion USD
net worth
- A. 100 trillion- unfunded liabilities
that have mandatory spending with
no dedicated revenue sources.
- taxes or healthcare
premiums
1. Medicare- estimated 88
trillion US Dollars
2. Social Security-
Estimated 17.5 trillion US Dollars
3. Public debt- 13. 7
trillion US Dollars
o Medicare and Medicaid increased
spending
a. Increase of older population
b. No dedicated funding streams on
medical visits and prescription of drugs
c. Increasing cost of funding for the
Guard and Reserve Forces
American Worker Productivity
o 1. Assessments of Worker’s quality
- A. Education
- B. Capital
- C. Technology
*Effects
a. Leveling off of high school graduation rates
b. Lower educational acquisitions propensity
c. Lower employment rate
d. Longer average periods of unemployment
Immigrant groups with higher fertility rate are
integrated families; thus, promote worker
productivity in association with non-cognitive
skills, persistence, focus and willingness to learn.
On the other hand, there’s high divorce rate,
people remain single and single-headed
household which correlates to lower worker
quality. 8% if children - 3 or more maternal
partnership