October 2019

Table of contents:
• Global SVOD subscriptions to double
• Global pay TV subscriptions up, revenues down
• OTT revenues climbed by $17 billion in 2018
• Pay TV subscriptions exceed 1 billion
• SVOD subscriptions soar by 38% in 2018

Editor: Simon Murray

Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

Free newsletter published

info@digitaltvresearch.com

Copyright: Digital TV Research Ltd

Copyright notice: No part of this publication may be copied,

duplicated or photocopied without written consent from Digital TV
Research Ltd.

www.digitaltvresearch.com
 Country Profiles
As part of our commitment to provide research data in a range of different formats,
we now offer individual country profiles which can be purchased separately. We
have combined analysis for traditional pay TV with SVOD into one document. Each
of the PDF reports cover the following:

• SVOD Insights: Commentary on the main players and developments

• Detailed Forecasts: SVOD Forecasts for every year from 2017 to 2024
• Chart: SVOD subscribers by operator for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024
• Chart: SVOD revenues by operator for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024

• Pay TV Insights: Commentary on the main players and developments

• Forecasts: Pay TV Forecasts for every year from 2017 to 2024
• Chart: Breakdown of TV households by platform (digital cable, analog cable,
IPTV, pay satellite TV, free-to-air satellite TV, analog terrestrial, free-to-air
DTT and pay DTT) for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024
• Chart: Pay TV revenues by platform (digital cable, analog cable, IPTV, pay
satellite TV and pay DTT) for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024
• Chart: Pay TV subscribers by operator (digital cable, analog cable, IPTV, pay
satellite TV and pay DTT) for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024
• Chart: Pay TV revenues by operator (digital cable, analog cable, IPTV, pay
satellite TV and pay DTT) for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024

Price for each country profile: £375/€450/$485

For more information, please click here or contact
lydia@digitaltvresearch.com

Please click on the country that you are most interested in from the table below to
find out more:

Australia Brazil Canada China

France Germany India Italy
Japan Mexico Poland Russia
Saudi Arabia South Africa South Korea Spain
Sweden Turkey UK USA

We can provide this level of detail for 138 countries.

Please contact us to request a different country.

October 2019
 Global SVOD subscriptions to double
The number of gross SVOD subscriptions will increase by 91% - or 462 million -
between 2018 and 2024 to reach 970 million. The total will climb by 124 million in
2019 alone.

By 2024, Netflix will contribute 23% of the global total, Amazon Prime Video 13%,
Disney+ 8% and Apple TV+ 1%. These four companies will control 45% of the
global total. This leaves a substantial market for others, including 30% of global
subscriptions in China where none of the four global players will operate.

SVOD subscriber forecasts in 2024 (million)

Netflix, 219
Others, 238

Amazon, 127

China, 291

Disney+, 82
Apple TV+, 13

Source: Digital TV Research

Netflix’s dominance of global SVOD is falling, although the company will add 79
million subs between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 219 million.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “This comes despite
the onslaught from new global players. We have updated our forecasts based on
June 2019 reported figures and the slew of announcements from the newer
players.”

Netflix’s revenues will more than double from $15 billion in 2018 to $35 billion in
2024 – up by 134% despite subscriptions only climbing by 57%. Disney+ will
generate $7.4 billion by 2024; ahead of Amazon Prime Video with $6.0 billion.

For more information on the SVOD Forecasts Update report, please contact:
Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com, Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

October 2019
 Global pay TV subscriptions up, revenues down
Digital TV Research forecasts 60 million additional pay TV subscribers between
2018 and 2024 to take the global total to 1.08 billion. China will provide 19 million
additional subs and India 26 million. However, the US will lose 14.4 million pay TV
subscribers between 2018 and 2024 – down by 16%.

Pay TV subscribers by top countries (million)

1200.0

1000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2024
Others 353.1 363.1 368.5 373.6 394.3
Germany 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.1
Russia 41.5 41.8 42.1 42.0 39.8
USA 94.9 91.0 85.5 82.5 76.6
India 151.4 158.0 160.0 165.7 184.4
China 324.2 337.0 343.1 349.2 355.9

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “We have updated
our forecasts based on June 2019 reports. The US is the world’s worst performer
– with no uplift expected over the next five years. Other countries will experience
a slowdown – or even some small declines in subscriber numbers – but no other
country will match the gloomy projections for the US.”

China will continue to supply a third of the world’s pay TV subscribers, with 356
million expected by end-2024. India will bring in another 17% of the total by 2024
– or 184 million. Therefore, China and India will together provide half the world’s
pay TV subscribers by 2024.

IPTV is the pay TV winner. IPTV will add 100 million subscribers between 2018
and 2024 to take its total to 357 million. Pay IPTV penetration will climb to a fifth of
TV households by 2024, up from only 2.5% at end-2010 and 15.4% at end-2018.

October 2019
Global pay TV revenues [subscription fees and PPV movies and TV episodes]
peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues will fall by 17% to $171 billion in 2024.
This is lower than 2010 - despite the number of pay TV subscribers rising by 359
million between 2010 and 2024. US pay TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $106
billion, but the total will drop to $70 billion in 2024.

For more information on the Pay TV Forecasts Update report, please contact:
Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com, Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

October 2019
 OTT revenues climbed by $17 billion in 2018
Global online TV episode and movie revenues reached $68 billion in 2018, climbing
from $51 billion in 2017 and up by $30 billion on 2016.

Global OTT TV & video revenue data by top

countries ($ million)
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2017 2018
Others 10,122 14,239 19,362
Germany 1,277 1,664 2,076
Japan 2,337 2,647 3,086
UK 2,452 3,097 3,897
China 6,115 9,023 12,578
USA 15,709 20,320 26,804

Source: Digital TV Research

From the 138 countries covered in the OTT TV and Video Databook, the top five
commanded 71% of the global revenues by 2018. OTT revenues exceeded $1
billion in 10 countries in 2018.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The US added $6.5
billion in revenues in 2018, with China up by $3.6 billion. Therefore, the US and
China were together responsible for more than half the world’s additional revenues
in 2018.”

SVOD became the largest OTT revenue source in 2014 when it overtook AVOD.
SVOD’s share reached 53% in 2018. SVOD revenues climbed by $11 billion in
2018 to $36 billion – up by 44% in the year. AVOD revenues increased by $5 billion
in 2018 to take its total to $22 billion.

October 2019
 Pay TV subscriptions exceed 1 billion
Digital TV Research estimates that pay TV subscribers increased by 26 million in
2018 across 138 countries. This took the number of pay TV subscribers beyond 1
billion.

Global TV households by platform (million)

1800

1600 120
160 18
17
1400 329
296
1200 530
197 202
1000
8 990 1016
78 225 227
800 142
717
142 215 257
600
36
400 193
445 452
200 337
89 63
0
2010 2017 2018

Analog cable TV Digital cable TV Pay IPTV

Pay satellite FTA satellite FTA DTT
Pay DTT Analog Terres. Pay TV subs

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, commented: “IPTV added

42 million subscribers in 2018 alone to take its total to 257 million. IPTV overtook
pay satellite TV in 2018.”

Satellite TV and pay DTT grew by 2 million and 1 million subscribers respectively
in 2018. Digital cable TV added 7 million subs, but analog cable TV shed 16 million
subs – meaning a net loss for cable.

Cable TV accounted for half of all pay TV subscribers in 2018; down from three-
quarters in 2010. IPTV increased its share of pay TV subscribers to a quarter in
2018. Satellite TV generated 22% of pay TV subscribers in 2018.

Global pay TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues fell to $199
billion in 2018.

October 2019
 SVOD subscriptions soar by 38% in 2018
Gross SVOD subscriptions increased by 139 million in 2018 to 508 million – or up
by 38%. The net subscriber count rose by 83 million in 2018 to reach 357 million –
up by 31%. This means that the average SVOD subscriber paid for 1.43 SVOD
subscriptions by end-2018 – up from 1.05 in 2010.

Gross SVOD subscriptions and net SVOD

subscribers (000)
600,000 1.45

500,000 1.40
1.35
400,000
1.30
300,000
1.25
200,000
1.20
100,000 1.15
0 1.10
2015 2016 2017 2018
Net 140,022 201,414 273,273 356,720
Gross 171,299 256,876 369,278 508,440
Gross/net 1.22 1.28 1.35 1.43

Source: Digital TV Research

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “China and the US
together accounted for 63% of the global total in 2018. China overtook the US in
2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader. China added nearly 60
million subscriptions in 2018 alone, with the US up by 27 million (despite its relative
maturity). India nearly doubled its subscription base.”

Eight countries had more than 10 million SVOD subscriptions by end-2018 –

collectively providing 80% of the global total.

Gross SVOD subscriptions represented 30.5% of TV households by end-2018. The

proportion of net SVOD subscribers was 21.4% - meaning that more than a fifth of
the world’s TV households had at least one SVOD subscription by end-2018.

For more information on the SVOD Databook, please contact: Simon Murray,
simon@digitaltvresearch.com, Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

October 2019
 Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2019
Title Publication Price
1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300
2 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV and Video January £1000/€1200/$1300
Forecasts
3 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300
4 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV and Video February £1000/€1200/$1300
Forecasts
5 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300
6 Asia Pacific OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300
7 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300
8 Latin America OTT TV and Video Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300
9 North America Pay TV Forecasts April £500/€600/$650
10 North America OTT TV and Video Forecasts April £500/€600/$650
11 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300
12 Eastern Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300
13 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300
14 Western Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300
15 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340
16 Global SVOD Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
17 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
18 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
19 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
20 Global AVOD Forecasts June £750/€900/$975
21 SVOD Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300
22 OTT TV and Video Databook September £750/€900/$975
23 SVOD Databook September £750/€900/$975
24 Pay TV Databook September £750/€900/$975
25 Pay TV Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300

PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR LATEST

PUBLICATIONS

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CORPORATE BROCHURE

Discounts are available for multiple report purchases and annual

subscriptions.

Please contact lydia@digitaltvresearch.com

October 2019