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PATRICK HONOHAN*
The Economic and Social ResearchInstitute,
4 BurlingtonRoa4 Dublin4, Ireland
Abstract
Despite the increasing sophistication of private financial markets in Europe,
the European Investment Bank (EIB) has been expanding as never before. Is
the Bank just one among many large banks prepared to provide project finance
in Europe, or does it have a distinct public policy role? We argue that its main
distinguishing role to date has been to bring competition and efficiency to the
less efficient banking markets. But new initiatives envisage a move to more
EIB involvement in loan guarantees and equity investment. We review the
potential here and offer some cautionary remarks.
I. Introduction
Despite the increasing sophistication of private financial markets in Europe, the
European Investment Bank (EIB) has been expanding as never before. Its
balance sheet has more than doubled in six years and it is now lending close to
18 billion ECU per annum within the European Union (EU). This article asks
what the role of the EfBf is and should be within the Union. What distinguishes
*1 have benefited from discussions with officials of the EIB and the European Commission and from
interviews with some EB borrowers conducted as part of a study for the Commission. Two referees made
very helpful suggestions on an earlier draft.
0 Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1995,108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 l1, UK and 238 Main Street, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
316 PATRICK HONOHAN
The EIB has always required guarantees from first-rate guarantors for all
lending.2 Traditionally these guarantees have been mainly from EU govern-
ments, but the situation has changed rather rapidly in the last several years. As
recently as 1985, less than 25 per cent of all loans outstanding within the ECwere
not government guaranteed. By the end of 1993 this percentage had jumped to
over 55 per cent and over three-fifths of new lending 1990-93 carried no
government guarantees (Table 1).
Although the quality of guarantees required has been somewhat lowered, it
is still a firm benchmark of EIB lending practice to seek guarantees that are
virtually certain. Most other banks price loans to take account of default risk; that
is how they make profits even on a portfolio experiencing some non-negligible
percentage of loan-losses. Such behaviour is contrary to the philosophy adopted
by the EIB. Its lending-on rate has built in essentially no margin for loan-losses,
and its actual loan-loss experience to date has been altogether negligible. One of
the important functions of most financial intermediaries is evaluating and pricing
Source: Derived from EIB Annual Reports (some figures estimated by extrapolation).
2
Since financial institutions make a charge for providing guarantees, the total cost of servicing to the EIB
borrower is often higher than the interest charged by the EIB.
o Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1995
THE PUBLIC POLICY ROLE OF THE EIB WITHIN THE EU 319
risk. Because it insists on what it regards as absolutely first-rate guarantees and
essentially no risk, the EIB has abdicated this function.
In order to fund its lending, the EIB has become one of the most important
issuers of straight long-term bonds with its issues approaching 5 per cent of the
world total in recent years. As a percentage of total 'foreign and international'
bond issues, the Bank's issues have also approached 5 per cent. The Bank's credit
rating is impeccable and the size of its issues makes for a high degree of liquidity
in the secondary markets.
The Bank's high credit rating can be attributed to four factors, in ascending
order of their importance to bond-holders: first, the quality of the project
selection, which has been sufficiently good to result in a very small rate of
recourse to guarantors; 3 second, the guarantees, from governments and other
sources, which back each loan; third, the paid-up capital and reserves; fourth, the
callable capital (which must be maintained above 40 per cent of loans outstand-
ing). Any one of these, with the possible exception of the first, would be enough
to copperfasten the high credit rating.
The Borrowers
The EIB has lent to a wide variety of borrower types, all across the EU, though
with a disproportionate representation of local and regional authorities and
public enterprises. An important element, accounting for as much as 30 per cent
of EIB lending recently, is the 'global loan' where the EIB lends to local financial
intermediaries 4 for lending-on mainly to small and medium-scale enterprises
(Pinder, 1986).
The reasons given by borrowers for choosing the EIB vary. Some borrowers
have used EIB funds because this allowed them to gain access to foreign currency
funds. A particular reason for favouring foreign exchange for some borrowers in
high interest rate countries was the fact that they were also able to avail
themselves of underpriced government exchange rate guarantees, thereby offer-
ing a lower overall cost of funds. Such exchange rate guarantee schemes have
been especially important in Italy, and probably contribute to explaining the
dominance of Italy in the EIB's portfolio for many years. Though curtailed, such
exchange rate guarantees still exist in parts of Italy and in Portugal.
Other borrowers find that the long maturity of EIB loans makes them
especially attractive. It is often costly, especially for a small borrower, to obtain
long-term funds even though the existence of interest rate swap markets makes
'Only a handful of loans have resulted in such recourse. In 1992 for the first time the Bank made a general
provision for banking risks, equivalent to 0.2 per cent of the net outstanding loan portfolio.
'The typical loan agreement with the intermediary governs, among others, the ceiling on individual loan size
(e.g.1Om ECU), the eligible regions and the type of project. The lending-on interest rate is usually governed
by local market conditions, though the BIB ensures that unreasonable margins are not imposed. The EIB
reserves the right to examine sub-borrower performance; but in practice this is done on a very limited scale,
especially after a relationship has been established with the intermediary.
o Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1995
320 PATRICK HONOHAN
Source: EJB AnnualReports and Information No. 79; Eurostat. 'Total' includes unallocable items.
reasonable to expect that some regions will receive greater emphasis than others.
Figure 1 shows a scatterplot of the stock of EIB lending in 1993 against GDP
(both per capita)which is suggestive of a negative relationship, with two outliers
- Denmark being on the high side and Greece on the low.
Among the various factors which are likely to have contributed to the actual
distribution across countries of EIB borrowing, most can be grouped under two
headings. Thus (a) countries with investment opportunities going beyond the
financing capacity of domestic savings (especially after taking account of
government dissavings), and (b) countries suffering inefficiencies or other
difficulties in the domestic financial system would be more likely to have
recourse to the EIB.6 Unfortunately, the data resist any simple quantitative
illustration of the relative magnitude of these factors.7
6The wide differences between EU countries in the efficiency and competitiveness of the banking systems
in Europe have been documented in recent studies, e.g. Price Waterhouse (1988), Neven (1990). Drawing
on a variety of indicators, Neven asserts that Germany, Netherlands and possibly the UK have the most
competitive banking systems. In Belgium, France and the Netherlands, competition has resulted in relatively
low bank profits, but prices of bank services may be less keen because of higher labour costs. At the other
extreme, Spain and Italy have highly profitable banking systems, with high labour costs: these presumably
provide the highest cost banking. 'The same can be said, to a lesser extent, for Denmark and, though it is not
covered by Neven, for Ireland. In addition, though this too does not emerge so clearly from Neven's data,
the banking systems of Greece and Portugal have been widely regarded as costly and inefficient.
'For each possible indicator, at least one country's level of EIB borrowing is quite out of line. For example,
a Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1995
322 PATRICK HONOHAN
DK
al
o 1-GR *'RL
0
UK 9F
DNL
Figure 1: EIB lending per head and GDP per head, 1993
With such a wide range of rather general objectives it is not surprising that some
lending is categorized under more than one heading (the total of the sums listed
above is more than half as much again as the total of lending in 1993).
The list of objectives is clearly comprehensive. Indeed, it would be hard to
imagine a project that could not be squeezed into one or other of these categories
as stated. Furthermore, borrowers report that the Bank adopts a flexible approach
in determining whether a project can be accepted as falling into the categories.
though high government deficits in Italy, Ireland and Portugal could help explain the high intensity of their
borrowing from the EIB in the 1980s, an equally high deficit in Belgium did not have the same effect. Much
the same ambiguity arises with nominal interest rates (cf. Honohau, 1992). A multiple regression approach
is also unable to quantify a stable relationship. Other variables, such as the size of the public sector, could
also be important.
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THE PUBLIC POLICY ROLE OF THE EIB WITHIN THE EU 323
For instance, many people are surprised to learn that EIB finances the purchase
of long-range passenger aircraft: but this obviously falls under the category of
transport infrastructure. It must be concluded that these positive objectives do
not provide a very selective or focused target for the EIB's lending activities.
The Bank does also have a short 'negative list' of areas where it either will
not lend, or is unlikely to lend, for reasons of Community policy. Even this
negative list can and has been challenged in certain respects, as in regard to the
reluctance to lend in support of R&D.
The list of objectives cannot help to explain in detail how the present pattern
of lending has come about. Virtually any bankable project not specifically on the
negative list could have been accommodated within the broad criteria chosen. A
more realistic way ofexplaining the present pattern of lending is to recognize that
the Bank's client base has been built up over the years and that its present sectoral
distribution is more a function of the Bank's response to opportunities as they
arose (and probably also of historical accident) than the result of a consistent and
explicit targeted sectoral approach.
tions which led the founding fathers to create the EIB have disappeared, it is
certainly true that they have been very much reduced. As a result, when a large
and profitable commercial entity borrows from the EIB, both parties enter into
the contract with the awareness that alternative lenders exist. The interest rates
and terms of the loan are typically comparable to what would be offered by the
alternative lender; the borrower's choice of the EIB being made on the basis
either of some slight cost saving, or the interest of maintaining a relationship with
more than one source of long-term credit, or some such second-order consider-
ation. Smaller borrowers usually receive EIB loans from an intermediary for
whom the availability of EIB funds (through a global loan) is again a matter of
second-order convenience.
This general presumption of a fairly effective financial market environment
does not extend to all parts of the EU. Price differentials in banking can be an
important reason for the EIB to bring its resources to bear on less well-served
financial markets. By lending where the local banking system is a high cost one,
the Bank can contribute to economic cohesion. Not only does it lower the cost
of funds to the final borrower, but the competition should also stimulate the
domestic banking system to respond with improved efficiency.' 1
Aside from the handful of very large-scale projects, it is hard to identify a
public policy and cohesion-promoting role of the EIB (within the EU) other than
its readiness to fund sound projects at competitive prices where the local
financial market displays inefficiency. Without such a role one would begin to
wonder whether the EIB should be privatized.
Even this role may be expected to shrink inexorably. Continued development
in the sophistication of domestic capital markets will allow more and more first-
rate borrowers direct access to capital markets, making it unnecessary for them
to resort to banks, including the EIB. Cross-border competition in banking has
been negligible to date, but can be expected to strengthen. Experience in
Australia and Canada where entry to the banking system has been liberalized in
recent years shows that, even if foreign banks do not dramatically increase their
market share, the threat of foreign competition will induce a response by the
domestic bankers in the direction of improved efficiency and lower margins.
Domestic banks will become more attuned to local borrower needs for long-term
capital and they will be able to provide strong competition for the EIB.
These improvements in banking efficiency across Europe, spearheaded by
the completion of the internal market in financial services and (if the single
currency becomes a reality) the elimination of exchange risk, could ultimately
result in a situation where the public policy functions of the EIB were no longer
relevant.
"A detailed micro-based analysis by Faini etaL (1993) provides interesting evidence of price differences,
which they attribute to monopoly rents in southern Italian banking.
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THE PUBLIC POLICY ROLE OF THE EIB WITHIN THE EU 325
M. New Directions
Looking to the future, it is clear that the EIB will not have things all its own way.
Many of the niches in which it has prospered (both geographically and in terms
of products) have attracted new competitors. Rapid balance sheet growth is
unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. Nevertheless, the tight control that the Bank
has kept over administrative costs should enable it to survive in the market place.
Its comparative advantage remains in the supply of funds, and thus it may find
itself moving more and more into a wholesale role. But such issues have little to
do with its public policy role, which is our focus here.
Given the present relatively limited and shrinking public policy role which we
have identified above for the EIB, it is reasonable to ask: what else could the Bank
do that it is not doing now? Are there ways of building on the strengths of the
institution to perform a public policy function not hitherto attempted? There
have already been some new initiatives in this area. The provision of risk capital
and loan guarantees seems likely to form a growing part of the EIB's remit in the
future, and its continued use as administrator of explicit interest subsidies means
that these too will remain an important part of its activities (although they will
not draw on the Bank's own resources).
In contrast to straight long-term lending on a well-secured basis, the provision
of risk capital and loan guarantees requires considerable sophistication in the
evaluation and pricing of risk. Incorrect pricing of risky financial contracts
involves an implicit subsidy, and experience shows that errors in this area can be
very costly.
Because many aspects of EU policy involve subsidies, their emergence and
growth in the financial sector may not seem out of place. But it is very difficult
to design successful subsidy schemes, whether implicit or explicit, for the
financial sector. The problem is that the key role of banks and other financial
institutions (as identified by recent literature1 2) in the modem economy is to
choose, on the basis of imperfect information, which borrowers should receive
loanable funds. The difficulty of assessing creditworthiness probably results in
2
Among the many examples of different strands in this literature we may mention the following. Gertler
(1988) provides an excellent introduction to the literature and shows how the presumption of underinvest-
ment arises. However, de Meza and Webb (1990) show how a small modification to a standard model can
reverse the policy prescription, thereby revealing how sensitive and complex the policy issues can be. Hoshi
et aL (1991) demonstrate the empirical relevance of a good banking relationship for ensuring enterprises'
access tocredit. Greenwald etal.(1993) explicitly examine the theory of regional creditpolicy interventions,
and discuss the possibility that a region's ability to recover from a negative shock may be hampered by
impairment of the regional banks' balance sheet. These papers all stress a variety of principal-agent
problems, where banks cannot wholly rely on their borrowers and where potential depositors cannot wholly
rely on banks to remain solvent. Attempts by principals to protect themselves by insisting on higher interest
rates can worsen the overall outcome, and there are many models in which an omniscient policy-maker can
improve things by subsidizing 'good' financial market activities. But in reality the policy-maker is also faced
with principal-agent problems in dealing with the banks, and cannot be sure that the subsidy will reach its
target.
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326 PATRICK HONOHAN
some lending to the wrong people, in excessive reliance on collateral (so that
would-be borrowers who have no collateral to offer may lose out), and possibly
in underinvestment overall. While such market imperfections may call for public
policy intervention, the same information problems and the fungibility of money
make subversion of subsidies likely (cf. Akerlof and Romer, 1993). Indeed,
majority opinion has shifted away from the use of the financial system for
subsidization (cf. World Bank, 1989).13 When one adds the fact that many
financial sector subsidies are hidden ones, so that their scale is not generally
known, it is clear that some caution needs to be applied.
Admittedly, the entry of as professionally managed an institution as the EIB
into such areas as risk capital and loan guarantees need not involve systematic
pricing errors or unintended subsidies. But if that is how it is to proceed, one may
conclude that in these fields too it will soon become no different to private
intermediaries whose analogous activities throughout most of the EU are
increasingly effective.
OThe interest subsidy often fails to find its target: if channelled through private banks, the benefit goes to
their best eligible customers (and indeed some may stick with the bank); if channelled through a public
agency, it tends to attract a disproportionate number of no-hope projects which have already been screened
out by the banks. There are more subtle problems, including the adverse psychological effect subsidies can
have on financial discipline, including a tendency for borrowers to anticipate special tolerance towards
repayment difficulties.
"It is envisaged that the EU will subscribe 30 per cent and 'public and private banks' the remaining 30 per
cent.
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THE PUBLIC POLICY ROLE OF THE EIB WITHIN THE EU 327
need to be deployed in risk evaluation. But interest rates cannot be set too high:
otherwise too many prudent promoters will be discouraged, leaving the banker,
at the limit, having a client base of reckless or dishonest borrowers. The banker
must find a middle path: she will pitch the interest rate on risky loans somewhat
higher than that for secure loans, but in addition she will take steps to refuse the
riskiest type of borrower.15 Much the same consideration applies to loan
guarantees: if she is to break even, the banker must price these too on the basis
that they will yield enough to cover for calls on the guarantee and to pay for the
costs of evaluation. The guarantees of the European Investment Fund are to be
priced in order to provide the Fund's capital with a market rate of return.
Pricing in the case of equity amounts to a decision as to what share of the
enterprise will be taken in return for the sum invested. By pooling equity
investments in a number of risky projects, a risk capital fund can become an
acceptable investment even for a cautious bank; after all, the capital gains from
successful equity investments made by the fund can offset the losses from the
failures. The managers of the risk capital fund will typically become involved in
oversight of the strategic management and performance of the projects to a
greater extent than is possible for the banker who merely provides a loan. One
reason for this additional monitoring of the progress of the enterprise is the need
to ensure that the resources of the enterprise are not subverted and do actually go
to the benefit of all the shareholders. However, this monitoring is costly in terms
of staff resources, and uses skills that have not hitherto been a major part of the
EIB's toolkit.1 6
The move to widen the public policy role of the EIB by expanding its
provision of risk finance (at first through guarantees and later perhaps with
equity) sets out to be based on a no-subsidy doctrine. Is this reasonable, or could
there be a case for at least some degree of implicit subsidy, bearing in mind that
the EIB already manages some subsidized lending?
Subsidies:Implicit andExplicit
Explicit interestsubsidies managedfor others. Although constrained by statute
not to provide interest subsidies itself, the EIB has acted as a conduit for interest
subsidies provided by others and attributable to loans made by the EIB. The
largest case was the granting of subsidies to Ireland and Italy at the time of their
accession to the European Monetary System which began in 1979. Those
subsidies were attached to EIB lending. After many years without new subsi-
"This point was stressed by Stiglitz and Weiss (1981). Black and de Meza (1992) illustrate the use of high
collateral requirements as an alternative to higher interest rates to discourage wilful default.
"A simple comparison of the size of the EIB's staff, at fewer than 800, with that of the World Bank, at more
than 6,000- for an equivalent volume of lending - provides an indication of the modest degree to which the
EIB is at present geared for the hands-on role of 'development banking'.
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328 PATRICK HONOHAN
dized lending, two new waves of interest subsidies for EIB lending have recently
been announced. One is funded from the EFTA countries in the context of the
EEA arrangement, and came into effect in 1994. It will benefit Greece, the island
of Ireland, Portugal and the disadvantaged areas of Spain. It is envisaged that
interest subsidies of 2 percentage points per annum will be provided on ten-year
loans totalling 1.5 bn ECU. The other wave is an initiative of the Council of
Ministers and involves 1 bn ECU of loans to SMEs. These will carry interest
subsidies of 2 percentage points per annum. As with previous subsidy schemes,
these interest subsidies have not been funded by cross-subsidization from other
borrowers, or out of the capital resources of the institutions, but from budgetary
subventions.17
The total subsidy envisaged by the two new interest subsidy initiatives
amounts to 50 million ECU per annum - not a huge distortion in the overall
financial system. Indeed, such a sum is equivalent to only one week's worth of
the EIB's profits. So it would be wrong to overstate the likely scale of the
distortion that is involved or of the benefits which might be obtained.
Possibleimplicit subsidiesfromunderpricedloan guarantees.Publicly provid-
ed loan guarantee schemes are often implicitly subsidized through under-
pricing. Those proposed for the European Investment Fund are to be made at
break-even rates. While achieving such pricing should be technically feasible, it
is well to be aware of the tendency for unintended implicit subsidies to creep in.
To the extent that the lending institution is insulated from the consequences of
loan delinquency, its screening of potential borrowers is likely to be more
cursory. Therefore, unless the guarantor carries out an effective credit screening
the guarantee programme will tend to accept a disproportionate number of
uncreditworthy borrowers. If unanticipated, such an effect will result in worse-
than-allowed-for loan-loss experience and result in an ex-post implicit subsidy.
Although good contract design can in principle mitigate such problems, experi-
ence shows how easy it is to fall into this trap. 18
Subsidizingventure capital?Could the subsidization of venture capital activities
be an exception to the general presumption against financial sector subsidies?
One reason for the comparatively small scale of such activities in Europe is the
high set-up costs of a venture capital project, costs that are largely independent
of the scale of the borrowing. The disproportionately small size of firms in the
EU periphery probably justifies some subsidization here in line with the other
extensive forms ofsubsidy to enterprises which now prevail under the Structural
"By giving the ElBaprivileged position, interest subsidies selectively granted toborrowingmade by it might
weaken its role in promoting improved financial sector efficiency through fair competition.
**Gale (1991) documents the significant welfare costs generated by a variety of loan guarantee schemes in
the United States. He does not include the huge costs of deposit insurance - which was effectively a greatly
underpriced guarantee scheme for loans to (deposits with) financial institutions.
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THE PUBLIC POLICY ROLE OF THE EIB WITHIN THE EU 329
Funds regime. To the extent that the equity contract involved in venture capital
ensures that, despite subsidization, the incentive for evaluation and monitoring
is substantially intact, well-designed subsidization of the equity investments
made by venture capitalists is arguably less distorting than subsidization of
interest or the guaranteeing of loans. But it would seem preferable to design such
a subsidy scheme so that it could be open to a wide range of intermediaries,
whether public or private, rather than being channelled exclusively through the
BB. 19
IV. Conclusion
In contrast to the situation which prevailed when it was founded, the EIB is now
only one of a variety of alternative providers. This is clearly the case for large
borrowers, whether in the public sector or not, and is also true of most small
beneficiaries in that they access EIB funds only through intermediaries in the
'global loans'. Many of its borrowers have alternative possible sources of funds
at similar interest rates and even at similar maturities. As the efficiency of
financial markets in Member States improves, a process that will be accelerated
by the completion of the internal market and progress towards EMU, the role of
the EB in achieving Community objectives will tend to become less central. For
the immediate future, however, the EIB remains a force for promoting cohesion
through enhanced competition and efficiency in the lagging financial markets.
Despite the rapid development in financial markets in all Community
countries, there are still gaps and the exercise of monopoly power. By providing
long-term funds and competitive rates even in the less competitive markets, the
EIB promotes cohesion by maintaining a degree of pressure on private interme-
diaries. This pressure has, however, been confined to the segment of the market
relating to long-term guaranteed borrowing.
Recently the EIB has decided to move into the area of risk finance, with which
its ample reserves would be well able to cope. This will require careful evaluation
and pricing of credit risk, an area in which the Bank has not hitherto had to have
much experience. Because these new activities are to be on an unsubsidized
basis, it seems that they too will prove to have only a limited public policy role,
and that the EIB is intended to act much as private intermediaries do in these
fields. Nevertheless, because of the much greater scope for discretion in pricing
of risk finance, there is the danger that - perhaps in a misdirected attempt to
expand its public policy role - the Bank could be drawn into providing implicit
subsidies in its risk finance activities. The benefits of such subsidies would be
questionable.
"The proposed private participation in the equity of the new European Investment Fund suggests that no
shareholder subsidization of its activities is envisaged.
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330 PATRICK HONOHAN
The search for a really distinctive public policy role for the EIB will no doubt
continue. But our review of the situation to date suggests that, as its financial and
administrative structure has evolved, the EIB's comparative advantage may not
be in providing a specifically public policy role within the EU.
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