MULTIPLE REGRESSION

Presented By: Group 07 (SECTION- C)

With the guidance of Dr. Pralhad Mishra

SOCIAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The course of MBA (BM) 2019-21

Akshit Saxena (UM19131)

Ameya R. Gadre (UM19138)

Amit Kaushik (UM19141)

Jyotiranjan Dehury (UM19159)

Shivani Talim (UM19187)

Manu Sreelatha Subby (UM19164)

Dev Rungta (UM19150)

Hemant Hotchandani (UM19156)

XAVIER INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, BHUBANESWAR

XAVIER UNIVERSITY, BHUBANESWAR
Introduction
For the assignment relating to multiple regression, time series data of Thailand from 1975 - 2018
relating to National Expenditure as % GDP, FDI, Export as % GDP, Urbanization was collected
from the World Bank Website. Attached is the excel sheet that contains the data.

Thailand MR
Data.xlsx

A-priori Reasoning
Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of all finished goods and services made in a
country.
An increase in the exports and FDI leads to more money flow in the country whereas National
spending and Urbanization increase of consumption thus all affecting
The aim was to study the impact of each variable on the GDP.
Analysis
Additive Regression Analysis
1. Enter Method
 Interpretation
The estimated equation can be written by taking the values from the output:
Y (GDP) = -5039.039 – 107.717 X1(Expenditure) + 3.236E-8 X2(FDI) + 3.626 X3(Export) +
263.854 X4(Urbanization)
From the equation, it can be calculated that R2 = 0.955
The adjusted R2 of 0.955 is quite high and it suggests that there is a fair degree of explanatory
power in the model.
The next table summarizes the analysis of variance and an F-test. In the output reported we
observe that the value of F is statistically significant, this means that there is a fair degree of
association between GDP and the other variables in the model. This value is used as a
confirmatory statistic for the model.
Finally from the coefficient table, looking at the significant values we can say that Expenditure
and Urbanization have a bearing on the GDP.
2. Step wise Method
3. Backward Method
 Interpretation
This method uses all variables in the process of backward regression and finally retains the most
relevant variable with the most explanatory power for the model. In this case, Expenditure and
Urbanization have been identified as the most relevant variables.
4. Forward Method
Interpretation
In case of forward regression, we found that Expenditure is a variable that contributes the most
to the GDP.

Multiplicative Regression Analysis

1. Enter Method
 Interpretation
The estimated equation can be written by taking the values from the output:
Ln Y (GDP) = -1.306 – 1.094 Ln X1(Expenditure) + 4.713E-5 Ln X2(FDI) + 0.697 Ln
X3(Export) + 3.068 X4(Urbanization)
From the equation, it can be calculated that adjusted R2 = 0.931
The adjusted R2 of 0.931 is quite high. It implies that 93.1% of the total variance in the GDP has
been explained by the regression equation. If we assume a significance value of 0.1, then we see
the significance values of expenditure, exports and urbanization are lower than our benchmark and
hence their relationship with the GDP is statistically significant. Since the values of FDI are higher
than our benchmark their relationship with GDP is statistically insignificant. There is a negative
sign that precedes the co-efficient for Expenditure. This means that there is a negative relationship
between GDP and expenditure. Elasticities associated with independent variables are given by the
slope values. Hence for every one percent change in GDP there will be a 0.69 % change in export
and 3.068% change in urbanization and so on.
2. Step wise Method
3. Backward Method
 Interpretation
This method uses all variables in the process of backward regression and finally retains the most
relevant variable with the most explanatory power for the model. In this case, Expenditure,
Exports and Urbanization have been identified as the most relevant variables.

4. Forward Method
Interpretation
Expenditure, Exports and Urbanization have been identified as the most relevant variables.