2016 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED 2016) Xi’an, 10-13 Aug, 2016
Research on the Short-term Prediction Model of Wind
Power Generation Based on GIS
Liu Huibin 1, Qian Wenxiao1, Yang Qianqian1, Li Tianye1, Li Xiu1
1. State Grid East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Research Institute
Abstract—Wind power is fluctuant, intermittent and
stochastic. The large capacity wind power connected
with the power grid will bing austere challenge to the
safety and stabilization of power system operation. The
Short-term prediction of wind power is an efficient
approach.Wind power prediction contains physical,
statistical and hybrid methods. Based on the historical
meteorological data and analysis of the relationship
between the wind power and meteorological elements
such as wind speed, wind direction, humidity and
temperature, the physical method can predict the wind
power with a low precision. By analyzing the
meteorological information and spatial data of GIS
related to wind power, this article presents a method of
improving the accuracy of wind power prediction, thus
grasping the effect of meteorological information on the
wind power from the perspective of the overall. This
method provides a new solution for the coordinate
scheduling of reactive voltage control, absorptive
capacity of wind power improvement, energy
conservation and loss reduction.
Index Terms—GIS, meteorological information,
prediction model, wind power generation.
I. INTRODUCTION
WIND power has developed rapidly in recent years.
With the characteristics of fluctuant, intermittent and
stochastic, the large capacity wind power connected with the
power grid brings austere challenge to the safety,
stabilization and economy of power system operation. It is
very difficult to predict the wind power precisely at this
stage as the wind farms disperses geographically. Therefore,
strengthening the research of wind power to improve the
accuracy of the wind power prediction is necessary for
power dispatching department [1].
Wind power generation prediction can be divided into
medium-long-term, short-term and ultra short-term methods
according to time scale. Among these methods, the
short-term one requires higher accuracy to induce the wind
abandonment, optimize the generation schedule of daily and
spinning reserve of conventional power [2]-[3]. Wind power
generation prediction contains physical, statistical and
hybrid methods according to prediction models. Based on
the meteorological information such as wind speed, wind
direction and temperature provided by Numerical Weather
Prediction or NWP for short, also considering the terrain,
obstacles et al., the physical method can predict the wind
power using the power curve with a low precision. The
statistical method can establish a relationship of historical
and predicted generation power by analyzing a large number
of historical wind power data. With the advantages of both
physical and statistical methods, the hybrid method can
achieve analyzing and modeling by using the numerical
meteorological prediction and historical data, which is the
most widely used wind power generation prediction method
[4].
Existing NWP system has a lower prediction accuracy
on time and spatial scales for wind speed, wind direction et
al. owing to the complexity and variability of meteorological
factors. Improving the accuracy of NWP system is especially
important to enhance the precision of wind power prediction.
Meteorological elements including wind speed, wind
direction, temperature and humidity et al. are spatial data in
essence, which can be managed using GIS. By establishing
appropriate mathematical model and using visualization
technology, the superposition of location of meteorological
information service system, analysis and multi-source data
can be achieved. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of
meteorological data and wind power generation will be
improved.
II. PREDICTION MODEL OF WIND POWER
GENERATION
A. Wind Power Generation Prediction of Single Wind
Farm
Owing to the influences of terrain,wind turbine model
and turbulence et al., wind power generation presents
complex features. Appropriate model should be selected to
predict single wind farm output according to the condition of
the wind farm.
Wind power generation prediction based on single wind
power curve of the historical data: firstly, we convert the
wind speed, wind direction and other meteorological
information predicted by the numerical weather into values
at hub height of the wind farm; secondly, these values are
processed and the wind speed of anemometer tower is
revised on standard atmospheric conditions by using the
power curve, historical output power of each wind turbine
and historical meteorological data of anemometer tower.
Then, the wind power generation is calculated statistically.
Based on the historical meteorological data of anemometer
tower and historical output power, the wind power
generation also can be calculated statistically by put the
wind farm as a whole. Wind power generation prediction
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 2016 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED 2016) Xi’an, 10-13 Aug, 2016
based on power curve of area representative point: firstly, the
wind turbines are divided into several sub-regions
considering the terrain features, wind turbine types and
arrays; secondly, one typical wind turbine is selected, and
the actual wind power curve can be fitted through the
historical power and anemometer tower’s data of this turbine.
This method reduces the difficulty of obtaining the historical
data of wind turbine, the workload of processing data also
decreases [5].
B. Wind Power Generation Prediction of Regional Wind
Farms
There are two methods to predict the wind power
generation of regional wind farms. One is simple wind
power generations’ accumulation of regional wind farms.
The second is wind power generation prediction using the
statistical measure method based on the results of
representative wind farms.
The simple accumulation method requires modeling to
all wind farms. A large calculation workload and storage
space are essential. The wind power generation’s efficiency
and accuracy of regional wind farms will be effected.
the wind farms are divided into several sub-regions by
analyzing whose location and grid connection point in the
statistical measure method. The historical output power of
each wind farm and the regional total power output of grid
connection point are analyzed and invalid points are
removed. The wind farms with high correlation are selected
as representations to statistically measured. The weighting
actor of each wind farm will be determined, and the wind
power generation prediction of regional wind farms can be
achieved [6].
III. DESIGN IDEAS
A. Numerical Weather Prediction Model
As a commonly used method of meteorological
prediction, support vector machine model input can achieve
the prediction of wind speed, wind direction, temperature
and other physical parameters in a certain period. With the
current weather data as input variables, NWP can predict
future meteorological conditions according to a
mathematical model of atmosphere. In 1904, Norwegian
meteorologist Vilhelm Bjerknes proposed a NWP method to
solve a set of mathematical equations describing
atmospheric motion by using the initial condition of the
atmosphere. This method can achieve the prediction of wind
speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, barometric
pressure etc. under different grid points and physical
dimensions. The maximum prediction time is determined by
the model of NWP and the ability of the large computer.
Generally speaking, NWP can provide a effective prediction
for 3-10 days. At this stage, the commonly used NWP model
in China contains European ECMWF, American WRF and
MM5, Japanese JMA, Chinese GRAPES, T213 and
T639L60 etc. [7].
In recently years, with the development of NWP, it has
been widely used in the field of wind power generation
prediction, and has improved the accuracy effectively. NWP
is a method which predicts future meteorological condition
by solving evolution equations of fluid mechanics and
thermodynamics describing meteorological evolution under
a certain initial and boundary conditions. The predicted
results has two major aspects: information on air pressure,
temperature, humidity, wind, clouds and precipitation etc. in
tens of square kilometers; all information can provide
prediction results in each hours or less fine-scale [8].
These rich meteorological prediction information
provides a more detailed leading indicators and related
factors, which is helpful to reduce the uncertainties and
improve the prediction accuracy comprehensive.
B. Spatial Analysis and Meteorological Applications
Model Based on GIS
GIS is a computer software system which manages and
analyzes the geospatial data and makes spatial information
visualization. With the support of hardware and software
environment of computer, the space-related data can be
collected, managed, operated, analyzed, modeled and
displayed. The timely spatial and dynamical geographic
information will be provided and serve for the
decision-making [9]. In recent years, GIS applications in the
field of meteorology at home and abroad is becoming
popular. The treatment objects are targets or objects with the
spatial characteristics. Meteorological elements such as wind
speed, temperature, air pressure etc. all have spatial
statistical characteristics. Therefore, meteorological
information are all geographic ones in essence, whose
description, storage, analysis and output can rely on GIS
technology [10]. Spatial analysis is the core function of GIS,
with the powerful extraction, performance and transmission
abilities. Spatial graphics data analysis, data computing with
non-spatial attributes and a joint operation based on spatial
and non-spatial data all use a set of geometric logical,
mathematical statistics, algebra and other means, and
ultimately solve practical problems related to geographic
space, especially implicit processing information. Therefore,
spatial analysis capabilities provide a good foundation for all
types of applied meteorological model.
In order to better take advantage of GIS technology to
carry out wind power generation prediction, a GIS platform
integrated of wind farm, power, geographic, and
meteorological information needs to be established for
creating GIS spatial database and managing the data shown
on it. GIS data can be divided into static and dynamic ones.
Static data is statical without dynamically updated data, such
as administrative areas, location of wind farms. Dynamic
data is dynamically updated data, such as wind speed, wind
direction, meteorological detection data.
GIS spatial database can be organized using the
multi-data source unified workspace ways. Database data
source is suitable for storing all kinds of data. Although
reading and storing data requires call interface of GIS
platform stringently, its advantage is easy to share source
data and the source data can be updated during the
publishing. Different types of GIS data can be stored in the
ways of multiple data sources depending on the type and
characteristics of data. Fig. 1 shows the flow chart of wind
power generation prediction based on GIS.
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 2016 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED 2016) Xi’an, 10-13 Aug, 2016
Figure 1 the flow chart of wind power generation prediction
based on GIS.
As shown in Fig. 1, both geographic data and wind
farm data call the slicing services in the meteorological GIS
platform. Meteorological data including meteorological
information, automatic stations, grid self site meteorological
monitoring information etc. needs to establish the
appropriate file type data sources. GIS data required to be
shown can be synchronized to the database data source and
published for GIS meteorological service, which will
provide support for the presentation and service calls for the
system.
C. Integration of Wind Power Generation Prediction
and Scheduling Technology Support System
The large capacity wind power connected with the
power grid will effect the real-time power balance and bring
austere challenge to the safety of power system operation. In
order to ensure the security of power system, we need to set
aside enough spinning reserve capacity on the scheduling
arrangements. However, the Chinese power structure is
thermal power-based. The large capacity wind power
connected with the power grid will face the issues of lack of
spare resources on power generation side and a serious
shortage of system peak load capacity. Therefore, it is urgent
to mobilize alternative resources in a wider range to
participate in the dispatching management including wind
power system.
At present, the gird dispatching strategies for promoting
the wind power consumptive include improving the accuracy
of wind power generation prediction, and coordination with
conventional units. When the wind power can not be
accurately predicted, the grid must take a more conservative
program to leave enough spare capacity and balance the
fluctuations in wind power [11].
The system check for large-scale delivery of wind
power must be carried out after obtaining wind power
generation prediction data. The relevant dispatching
department must be informed quickly and adjust the power
grid. Thus, dispatching apartment must adopt strategies to
suit the operation and management of the large capacity
wind power connected with the power grid. Wind power
generation extended prediction system is tightly integrated
with wind power dispatch technical support system while
taking advantage of its existing data and applications.
By using the database interaction of wind power
dispatch technical support system, the real-time data of wind
power can be connected with the EMS system and reflect the
situation of wind power generation prediction. The system
structure is shown in Fig. 2.
Figure 2 the logical structure of wind power generation
prediction system based on GIS.
IV. CONCLUSION
By classifying the numerical weather prediction data
and historical wind data accurately, integrating the
meteorological prediction and GIS geographic information,
the integration of spatial elements and accuracy of
meteorological meteorological can be further improved, thus
optimizing the meteorological elements and wind power
generation model and enhancing the accuracy of wind power
generation prediction. It is very meaningful to integrate wind
power generation prediction and the scheduling system for
improving the power generation efficiency of wind farm.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors thank Tsinghua University and Nanjing
Xinda High Tech Development Co., Ltc for providing
research support. Furthermore, we thank the editor as well as
reviewers for suggestions and comments that helped to
improve the manuscript.
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Liu Huibin was born in Heilongjiang province on August 8,

1971. In 2015, he obtained the master’s degree of
engineering in computer science and technology in Tsinghua
university of Beijing, China. The main research directions
contain new energy, distributed generation, GIS, power
system security and control etc.
Before 2009, he worked in State Grid Heilongjiang Electric
Power Company Limited and obtained the talents title with
years of professional and technology projects development
experience. Since 2009, he has worked in State Grid East
Inner Mongolia Electric Power Supply Co. Ltd and State
Grid East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Research Institute
in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. In this period, he obtained the
professional and leading talent title. The main monographs
and papers include: [1] Q. H. Wei, Safety Risk Analysis and
Control of Electrical Supply Enterprise. Beijing, China:
China Electric Power Press, 2012. [2] H. B. Liu, Z. H. Du. A
grid resources allocation mechanism based on futures
markets theory [J]. Computer Science, 205, 33(6): 93-96.

Qian Wenxiao was born in Inner Mongolia province on

October, 1972. Senior engineer, master degree. Since 2009,
he has worked in State Grid East Inner Mongolia Electric
Power Research Institute.

Yang Qianqian was born in Shandong province on May 15,

1986. engineer, doctor degree. Since 2015, she has worked
in State Grid East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Research
Institute.

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