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Modebola Olowu-Interim Report PDF
Modebola Olowu-Interim Report PDF
Abstract
The emerging Nigeria market has been on a roller-coaster transformative ride, especially because of the
underdevelopment, leadership issues and volatility existing in the Nigerian economy, the poor transparency,
settlement matters and unsteady nature of the government politics, all which have given rise to regulatory
issues and lots of financial risks. As such, setting up a quant firm demands a deep knowledge of the wobbly
political and economic terrain of Nigeria, and an understanding of how to govern the interaction between
raising funds, strategy, legal, regulations and operational issues that are guaranteed to be encountered. This
research paper is going to focus on the establishment of the Eko Peninsula Asset Management Firm (EPAM)
- a Quantitative Finance Firm in the Nigerian market and will give enlightenments on overcoming the stated
challenges alongside the firm’s unique value proposition to make it an outstanding firm in the finance
industry.
The Nigerian market has been in existence since the days of trade by barter, therefore we will be looking
at the market historically and its transition over the years, also gearing towards its current global viewpoint,
the asset management sector of Nigeria’s financial services industry; the problem of raising capital/equity,
entry barriers such as minimum capital and infrastructure size for new asset management businesses. The
research paper is also incorporated as the convincing and market penetrable business plan that can be used
for potential investors to raise capital...
1.0 Introduction
This research work is under the entrepreneurship capstone track and will be focusing on Nigeria, as my
country of choice for a quant-firm start-up. It is a project that is fixed on evaluating and gauging the views of
starting a Quantitative Finance Firm in Nigeria’s emerging market. A lot has been said about Quantitative
Finance as being the bridge between finance and technology; covering the most critical aspect of what the
future will resort to call Financial Engineering, encompassing numerical analysis, computer science and
finance; all of which are used to simulate, comprehend and resolve intricate financial problems with an
ultimate target of minimizing & mitigating risks and largely capitalizing on large profit and returns. It’s what
we call here in the Nigerian banking sector ‘Achieving more with less funds’. The rapid growth of IoT
(Internet of Things, Big Data, AI and other technological advancement has made Quantitative finance grow
relevance and importance in the financial industry, as this infrastructure has permitted the disposition of
refined and robust systems to subsequently cross- test approaches established to solve financial issues. The
financial markets have seen Quantitative Finance firms strongly on a positive note, produce brilliant
performances, which has attracted substantial investment from both affluent personnel’s, the public and
private enterprises. According to Stan Altshuller, who is a Chief Research Officer at Novus, ‘the growth of
Quantitative finance will lead to them, controlling over 67% of the market value’, as managers are taking
more quantitative look at things and are augmenting their existing investment process by adding a quant
element which aids in their sizing, scheduling and risk management.
Initially, quantitative finance was the exclusive reserve of a group of people in the finance industry who use
mathematics and computer science to model problems within finance. It started mainly in the sell side,
including derivative pricing and restricted to specific departments like Derivative, Risk management,
Structuring and Trading. Today, the landscape has broadened and expanded in both definition and location
to cover most areas where mathematics is used to solve problems in finance- both sell side and buy side;
Hedge Funds, Asset management, IT departments, Insurance, Energy trading and post global financial crisis
new control functions such as Model validation and Independent price verification. The reliance on
quantitative finance in the industry has therefore necessitated the need more than ever for more people to
understand the models and most importantly the assumptions underlying them. Before, it was enough to hire
people with quantitative background with little or no finance or markets knowledge. However, the global
financial crisis has shown to us in mean terms what overreliance on mathematical models can lead to. Now,
corporations and most especially financial sectors hire talents with technical and financial market interests as
it has become essential to have people who can critique the models, understanding where they work and more
importantly where they do not. Quantitative hedge funds incorporate automated trading strategies, enabling
them to exploit price discrepancies in the markets through executing trade positions within a very short time.
• The Nigerian Stock Exchange Listing Rules, which regulate funds listed on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange (NSE) (e.g. exchange traded funds).
• The Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2004 (if asset management is a limited liability
company);
• The PenCom Regulations on the Investment of Pension Fund Assets (Pencom regulations) 2012
issued further to the Pension Reform Act (2004), which has been repealed and replaced by the
Pension Reform Act 2014; The Investment and Securities Act 2007 (ISA);
• SEC rules - The rules and regulations issued by the SEC pursuant to the ISA;
3.2 Regulators
The Securities and Exchange Commission is the constituted regulatory body saddled with the responsibility
of securities regulation in the country: it regulates the capital market and its focus is to protect investors and
market operators, and to ensure and preserve market integrity. To efficiently and effectively carry out the
objectives of securities regulation as embedded in the Investments and Securities Act, 2007(ISA), the SEC
thereby prescribed some rules and regulations for participants/regulated persons in the capital market with
more precise notice of what is expected of them, what conduct will be sanctioned and promotes fairness and
equality of treatment among similarly situated persons.
The rules are made up of 14 parts and 11 schedules [6]. They contain both rules of general and specific
applications governing securities exchanges; capital market operators; securities offered for sale or
subscription; mergers, acquisitions and combinations; collective investment schemes; borrowing by federal,
states, local government and other government agencies as well as Supra national bodies amongst other
things.
The Act exclusively states the Registration requirements in which the application for registration filing and
provision of documents for Certificate of Incorporation amongst others will require an evidence of the
minimum paid-up capital of N150million for the funds/portfolio manager who can carry out investment
advisory, selection of securities for the fund/portfolio, publication of financial market periodicals,
management of funds and portfolios on behalf of investors with a N10 billion for the firm’s minimum start-
up capital.
The Nigerian capital market, most especially the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and stock prices are
fundamentally driven by globalization, macroeconomics, investor disposition and market essentials.
4.1 Market Essentials:
It is often believed that a company’s fundamentals are the key long-term driver of its share price; with
financial ratios such as price-earnings (P/E), price-sales (P/S), price-book (P/B), book value (BV) etc.
Fundamental analysis evaluates the actual business operations of a company to determine its financial health,
project future growth prospects and determine current and future valuation. It uses publicly available
information usually disclosed by the company through SEC filings to build an accurate assessment of the
business.
4.2 Globalization:
The effect of globalization cannot be overemphasized; there are no longer barriers and boundaries in the
international market making it possible for the seamless flow of information and investments. Among the
many positives of this interconnectivity among markets is the increase in international investment; foreign
investors seek investment opportunities in foreign markets thereby increasing their destination’s market
valuation through foreign portfolio investments. However, the 2008 global financial crisis has also shown us
that financial crisis in any of the developed market can also be transferred to other markets as most foreign
investors will exit their positions in a flight for safety thereby causing sudden price drop in a once thriving
market.
4.4 Macroeconomics:
From the macro-economic side- fiscal and monetary policies- the over-all market size is positively correlated
with the ability to mobilize capital and diversify risk on an economy wide basis so that the stock market
should grow as the economy grows. Therefore, the stock market reflects both underlying macro-economic
conditions and specific economy policy actions. Changes in factors like interest rate, banking policies and
regulations- Monetary Policy Rate, foreign policies, trade policies, value of the Naira, economic and political
shocks etc. all have significant impact in driving stock prices on the Nigerian bourse.
As a new player in the Nigerian market, it is very essential to implement competitive intelligence to know
what is happening in the industry, who the major players are, what they are offering and their target market
(investors); analyzing all of this will assist in dissecting the market and provide the much-required strategy
to adopt in other to gain market acceptance and build confidence going forward. The firm seeks to generate
high risk adjusted returns in the capital and money market using quantitative strategies backed by cutting
edge technology and modern techniques which will be introduced to the Nigerian market.
Opportunities abound in this market as there are no known funds adopting quantitative strategies now and
using this to exploit the market drivers will ensure the benefits of first user advantage. The mode of operation
will also evolve to move with market trends as fund will engage in research that will aid in developing more
strategies that can be adopted before old ones get crowded out.
6.1 Major Players
Popular fund managers and players in this sector are Financial Derivatives Company Limited,
FBNCapital Asset Management Limited, Chapel Hill Denham Management Limited, FBN Merchant
Bank Limited, etc. With the use of mutual funds to be the major source of fund for all the market players
because of the difficulties involved with raising capital in an emerging economy and, reliable information
is not available as regards fund placements made by institutional investors in other investments in the
capital market.
6.4.1 Sharpe Ratio: It was developed in 1966 by William Sharpe. It measures excess return as the
difference between total portfolio returns less return earned on risk-free asset per unit of portfolio total risk
as measured by the portfolio’s Standard Deviation.
S R=rp – rf (1)
σp
Where:
rp = Actual return of the portfolio for the period.
rf = Risk-free rate for the period.
SR = Sharpe Ratio
σp = Standard deviation
of the fund.
6.4.2 Treynor Ratio: It is a risk adjusted ratio developed by Treynor (1965) to measure fund performance.
Although like Sharpe Ratio, but it substituted the standard deviation for the portfolio’s beta (systematic
risk). The difference between this and the Sharpe Ratio is that the later evaluates the reward to variability,
but the latter evaluates reward to volatility.
TR = rp – rf(2)
βp
Where:
TR = Treynor’s performance index.
βp = Beta of the closed-ended portfolio return.
6.4.3 Jensen’s Alpha: This will be used to gain investors’ confidence and market prominence. It was
developed by Jensen (1965) to measure the efficiency of fund manager’s fund selection ability. The excess
portfolio return is regressed on the excess market return using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
with emphasis on the estimate of alpha. A positive alpha suggests that the portfolio manager performs
better than the market and vice versa. Jensen’s alpha is derived from the CAPM as follows;
rp – rf = αp + βp (rm – rf ) (3)
Where:
αp =Jensen’s Alpha, is the excess return on portfolio after adjusting for the market risk.
rm =Return on market portfolio.
βp =Sensitivity of the excess return on portfolio at time t, to the excess return on the market.
A positive and statistically significant alpha depicts that the fund has experienced abnormally good risk-
adjusted returns during the period and the superior performance can be due to the manager’s ability to
consistently select undervalued stocks or predict market returns (Reilly, 1989). It should also be noted that
Jensen’s alpha shows whether a fund’s return is above the price realized through the CAPM. If the return
is in excess, then the expected return is a good return, if not, the return is poor (Bilal et. al 2011). For the
period 2012 – 2015, without adjusting for dividend income, management fee and fund expenses, the results
for the above research shows that the mean market monthly return is 0.7175%, while Treasury bill rate is
0.92%. This resulted in a negative average excess return of -0.20%; this simply means that investors were
not adequately compensated for the risky investment as they would have fared better had they invested in
the risk-free asset. Only 7 mutual funds out of the 37 observed returned positive excess returns representing
about 18.93% of the existing funds, while the remaining 81.07% returned negative returns. For the Sharpe
Ratio, only 7 (18.92%) of the observed funds have a positive Sharpe Ratio, implying higher risk adjusted
returns, while 30 (81.08%) have a lower risk-adjusted returns. The Treynor Ratio’s result was a bit better
than the analysis performed by Oduwole (2015) as 16 (43.24%) of the funds’ ratio was greater than one;
meaning that only 43% of the funds generated enough excess return to cover the volatility of their
systematic risk (beta of the market portfolio) while the others could not. The Jensen’s alpha result reveals
that 10 (27.03%) of the 37 funds have positive insignificant alpha, 6 (16.21%) funds were negative
significant alphas, while the remaining 21 (56.76%) are also negative alphas but not significant. Overall,
these results reveal lack of fund management and stock selection ability on the part of the fund managers
[7].
Account Structure: The fund will be open-ended and privately offered; each investor is considered a
separate limited partner of the partnership. Each limited partner will purchase a shared interest in the profit
and loss of the fund for a fixed capital investment.
Minimum Investment: A minimum sum of N100 million will be set as initial investment capital and
subsequently a N20 million will be committed. This is expected to make marketing the fund to investors
more productive. The minimum investment limit is expected to increase as the firm grows in reputation.
6. 9 EPAM’s Infrastructure:
1. Location: Our office will primarily seat in the Nigerian mega city and at the heart of Lags itself.
The size of the office space will also be determined by the firm’s mid-term growth plans and anticipated
team size growth.
2. Human Capital: An eight-man team will be created for EPAM, which will include:
i. A quant,
ii. The founder and CEO,
iii. Chief Investment Manager,
iv. Senior Portfolio Manager,
v. Chief Financial Officer,
vi. Chief Operating Officer,
vii. Chief Marketing Officer,
viii. A research Analyst,
Our core values are People (Who are any organizations greatest asset), Passion (to always deliver the best)
and Partnership (Growing with others).
Our Mission: Is to be the leading quant firm in the whole of West Africa, providing exceptional services
and raising generations of quants.
Our Goal: Is to provide the best returns to our investors and clients.
Our vision; Is to grow beyond limits and take down new to market territories.
All stated above are my current accomplishments on this research paper, I am still working on Closing my
abstract and getting more information to make my research paper more relevant and useful for the quant-
finance industry.
References
1. http://sec.gov.ng/check-lists/requirements-for-registration-as-fund-portfolio-manager/
2. M Ilo, Bamidele & Yinusa, Olumuyiwa & Elumah, Lucas & Bamidele, Ilo & G Yinusa, O & O
Elumah, L. (2018). Performance of mutual funds in Nigeria. 17. 8-25. 10.5605/IEB.17.1.
3. Day Trading Encyclopedia: Introduction to Fundamental Analysis, website
https://www.investorsunderground.com/fundamental-analysis/.
4. Victor K.Gimba (2010) Testing the Weak-form Efficiency Market Hypothesis: Evidence from
Nigerian Stock Market: CBN Journal of Applied Statistics Vol. 3 No 1.
5. Manuela Tvaronavičiene & Julija Michailova (2006) Factors affecting securities prices: Theoretical
versus practical approach, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 7:4, 213-222.
6. ISA (2007) Investment and Securities Act, Law of the Federation of Nigeria: www.sec.gov.ng.
7. Ugwoke, R.O. and Onyeanu, E.O. (2013) An Examination of the Unit Trust Scheme/Mutual Fund as
a Veritable Vehicle of Investment in the Nigerian Stock Market, Research Journal of Finance and
Accounting, 3(6), pp. 176-184
8. Funds Managers Association of Nigeria’s website: www.fman.com.ng.
9. Oduwole, O. (2015) The performance of Nigerian Mutual Funds in the period 2011-2014,
Mathematical Theory and Modeling, 5(3), pp. 85-95.
10. Burton G. Malkiel (1973) A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for
Successful Investing.
11. Paul Dickson (Editor) Law Business Research: Asset Management Review, Fifth Edition.
12. The Nigerian Stock Exchange’s website www.nse.com.ng.
13. Quantitative Financial Analytics website:
http://www.mutualfundsnigeria.com/valuationsummary/pensionsummary.php
14. The Nigeria Stock Market: Near the Bottom? Proshare Nigeria website
https://www.proshareng.com/articles/Market-Updates/The-Nigerian-Stock-Market--Near-the-
Bottom/1771
15. Cleary, S. (2001) Canadian Securities Exam: Fast-Track Study Guide, Ontario: John Wiley and
Sons, Canada, pp. 320.
16. Eugene F. Fama (1965) Efficient Market Hypothesis.
17. Dr. Randeep Gug (Head of Professional Qualifications, CQF). An introduction to Quantitative
Finance.
18. http://www.nse.com.ng/market-data
19. http://www.nse.com.ng/market-data/other-market-information/nse-fact-sheet