Desesonalised

Time Year Quarter Actual Demand Seasonality Ratio Desosonalised w/t Correction Trend
1 2001 1 27512 0.5557369488 49505.436084 49302.4413923 1860.5
2 2 45798 0.970759659 47177.485771 46984.0367288 3721
3 3 76968 1.5977259488 48173.468083 47975.935063 5581.5
4 4 43858 0.8757774433 50078.933105 49873.5868159 7442
5 2002 1 30580 0.5557369488 55026.033565 54981.6247505 9302.5
6 2 53198 0.970759659 54800.381851 54756.1551491 11163
7 3 88704 1.5977259488 55518.908025 55474.1014351 13023.5
8 4 51590 0.8757774433 58907.66015 58860.1186653 14884
9 2003 1 35372 0.5557369488 63648.818158 62770.0644748 16744.5
10 2 57840 0.970759659 59582.20396 58759.5951092 18605
11 3 93388 1.5977259488 58450.57475 57643.5894933 20465.5
12 4 58906 0.8757774433 67261.380671 66332.7509227 22326
13 2004 1 39382 0.5557369488 70864.462193 71951.1865448 24186.5
14 2 57219 0.970759659 77484.678418 78672.9254505 26047
15 3 122868 1.5977259488 76901.799143 78081.1075752 27907.5
16 4 54996 0.8757774433 62796.776074 63759.7804295 29768
17 2005 1 42000.0630431 75575.4375 31628.5
18 2 74959.6337341 77217.4997567 33489
19 3 126391.452338 79107.091196 35349.5
20 4 70984.2038485 81052.7884543 37210

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000
30000

20000

10000

0
0 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40
1 1Actual
2 2Dema
2 3nd 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8Des 8 os8onal
9 i s9ed10 10
Li near (Des esona l i s ed w/t Correction) Li nea r (Des es onal i s e
Adjust Col umn D
Adjust
47441.94
43263.04 Sesonality Ratio
42394.44 2001 2002 2003 2004
42431.59 Q1 27512 30580 35372 39382
45679.12 Q2 45798 53198 57840 75219
43593.16 Q3 76968 88704 93388 122868
42450.6 Q4 43858 51590 58906 54996
43976.12 Total 194136 224072 245506 292465
46025.56
40154.6 Desesonalised
37178.09 2001 2002 2003 2004
44006.75 Q1 49505.44 55026.03 63648.82 70864.46
47764.69 Q2 47177.49 54800.38 59582.2 77484.68
52625.93 Q3 48173.47 55518.91 58450.57 76901.8
50173.61 Q4 50078.93 58907.66 67261.38 62796.78
33991.78 Total 194935.3 224253 248943 288047.7
43946.94
43728.5
43757.59 Correction Factor
43842.79 2001 2002 2003 2004
Q1 49302.44 54981.62 62770.06 71951.19
Q2 46984.04 54756.16 58759.6 78672.93
Q3 47975.94 55474.1 57643.59 78081.11
Q4 49873.59 58860.12 66332.75 63759.78
Total

f(x) = 7573.4675181847x - 15106117.3758743

 0 0 0 0 0 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00 40 80 20 60 00
60 64 68 72 76 8Des 8 os8onal
9 i s9ed10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 Des
14 es
15 ona
15 l 1i 6s ed
16 w/t
16 Correction
17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20
on) Li nea r (Des es onal i s ed w/t Correction) Li nea r (Des es ona l i s ed w/t Correction)
Col umn D
Average Seasonality Ratio
33211.5 0.555737
58013.75 0.97076
95482 1.597726
52337.5 0.875777
59761.19 1
year Quarter total demand
2014 1 1548440 2014
2 1913010 1 1548440
3 11535160 2 1913010
4 1874710 3 11535160
2015 1 1610100 4 1874710
2 11061010 Total 16871320
3 11769480
4 11029050
2016 1 1610100
2 11061010
3 11769480
4 11029050
2017 1 1785090
2 11500905
3 12451660
4 11097020
2018 1
2
3
4
 2015 2016 2017 Seasonality ration
1610100 1610100 1785090 1638433 0.0525790488
11061010 11061010 11500905 8883984 0.2850965269
11769480 11769480 12451660 11881445 0.3812882598
11029050 11029050 11097020 8757458 0.2810361644
35469640 35469640 36834675 31161319 1
 2001 2002 2003 2004 Average Ratio
Quarter 1 27512 30580 35372 39382 33211.5 0.555737
Quarter 2 45798 53198 57840 75219 58013.75 0.97076
Quarter 3 76968 88704 93388 122868 95482 1.597726
Quarter 4 43858 51590 58906 54996 52337.5 0.875777
194136 224072 245506 292465 59761.19

Desansonalised
2001 2002 2003 2004
Quarter 1 49505.4361 55026.03 63648.82 70864.46
Deseasonal Demand
Quarter 2 47177.4858 54800.38 59582.2 90000
77484.68
Quarter 3 48173.4681 55518.91 58450.57 80000
76901.8
f(x) = 1860.5096091291x + 43946.8491041447
Quarter 4 50078.9331 58907.66 67261.38 70000
62796.78
194935.323 224253 248943 288047.7
60000

Correction Factor 0.99589955 0.999193 0.986194 50000

1.015335
2001 2002 2003 400002004
Quarter 1 49302.4414 54981.62 62770.06 30000
71951.19
Quarter 2 46984.0367 54756.16 58759.6 78672.93
20000
Quarter 3 47975.9351 55474.1 57643.59 78081.11
Quarter 4 49873.5868 58860.12 66332.75 10000
63759.78
194136 224072 245506 292465
0
0 5 10 15 20
 Period Actual Demand Deseasonal Demand Trend Adjustment
1 27512 49302.4413922868 1860.5 47441.94
2 45798 46984.0367288118 3721 43263.04
3 76968 47975.9350629746 5581.5 42394.44
4 43858 49873.5868159268 7442 42431.59
5 30580 54981.6247505461 9302.5 45679.12
6 53198 54756.1551490888 11163 43593.16
7 88704 55474.1014350962 13023.5 42450.6
8 51590 58860.1186652689 14884 43976.12
Demand 9 35372 62770.0644747866 16744.5 46025.56
10 57840 58759.5951092086 18605 40154.6
11 93388 57643.5894933103 20465.5 37178.09
1041447
12 58906 66332.7509226946 22326 44006.75
13 39382 71951.1865448224 24186.5 47764.69
14 75219 78672.9254505307 26047 52625.93
15 122868 78081.1075751786 27907.5 50173.61
16 54996 63759.7804294684 29768 33991.78
17 75575.5 31628.5 43947
18 77436 33489 43947
19 79296.5 35349.5 43947
20 81157 37210 43947
15 20 25