Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Iraq Crisis and World Order
Iraq Crisis and World Order
Structural,
Institutional
and Normative
IRAQ
Challenges
CRISIS
AND
WORLD
ORDER
a United Nations
University Press
TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS
6 United Nations University, 2006
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec-
essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University.
United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations
University.
ISBN 92-808-1128-2
The Iraq crisis and world order : structural, institutional and normative
challenges / edited by Ramesh Thakur and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 9280811282 (pbk.)
1. Iraq War, 2003– 2. World politics—21st century. I. Thakur, Ramesh
Chandra, 1948– II. Sidhu, Waheguru Pal Singh.
DS79.76.I7255 2006
956.70440 31—dc22 2006019926
Contents
List of contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535
Contributors
3
4 RAMESH THAKUR AND WAHEGURU PAL SINGH SIDHU
The relationship between the United Nations and the United States is as
critical as it is difficult to get right. The central challenge of global gover-
nance is a double disconnect. First, there is a disconnect between the dis-
tribution of ‘‘hard’’ and ‘‘soft’’ power in the real world, on the one hand,
and the distribution of decision-making authority in the existing intergov-
ernmental institutions, on the other. The second disconnect is between
the numbers and types of actor playing ever-expanding roles in civil, po-
litical and economic affairs within and among nations and the concentra-
tion of decision-making authority in intergovernmental institutions.
In turn this has provoked a double crisis of legitimacy. With regard to
the second disconnect, legitimacy is the conceptual rod that grounds the
exercise of power by public authorities in the consent of the people, so
the circuit is broken with the growing gulf between the will of the people
and the actions of governments. As regards the first disconnect, legiti-
IRAQ’S CHALLENGE TO WORLD ORDER 5
macy is the conceptual rod that connects power to authority, so the cir-
cuit is broken when power and authority diverge. The dominant power
of the United States – military, economic, cultural, educational and
media – is the characteristic of contemporary international relations. The
United States has an unparalleled capacity to use its ‘‘hard’’ and ‘‘soft’’
power to push its own agenda. Without Washington’s participation, the
provision of global public goods is impossible. Although major powers
have always been able to play more important roles than lesser powers,
the US capacity at present is historically unique for the Westphalian
order.
The United States is the world’s indispensable power; the supreme
power and the hyper-power are other synonyms that have been used in
recent times to describe this phenomenon. But the United Nations is the
world’s indispensable institution, with unmatched legitimacy and author-
ity, together with convening and mobilizing power. The Security Council
is the core of the international law enforcement system and the chief body
for building, consolidating and using the authority of the international
community. For any international enforcement action to be efficient, it
must be legitimate; for it to be legitimate, it must be in conformity with
international law; for it to conform to international law, it must be consis-
tent with the UN Charter. There will be times when UN-centred inter-
national diplomacy must be backed up by the credible threat of force.
This can come only from the United States and its allies. In truth, the
maintenance of world order since 1945 has depended more on US than
UN ability and will. But the will to wage war will weaken if force is used
recklessly, unwisely and prematurely. Progress towards a world of a
rules-based, civilized international order requires that US force be put
to the service of lawful international authority.
The United Nations is the main embodiment of the principle of multi-
lateralism and the principal vehicle for the pursuit of multilateral goals.
After World War II, Washington was the chief architect of the normative
structure of world order based on the international rule of law. There
was, alongside this, deep and widespread confidence in the United States
as a fundamentally trustworthy, balanced and responsible custodian of
world order, albeit with occasional lapses and eccentricities. In the past
few years Washington has engaged in a systematic belittling, denigrating
and hollowing out of a whole series of treaties with respect to nuclear
weapons, landmines, international criminal prosecution, climate change
and other regimes. In Iraq, the United States signalled that it would play
by the rules of the world security institution that it helped create if, but
only if, that institution bends to America’s will. Coming after years of
US exceptionalism, this united most of the rest of the world against
American unilateralism.
6 RAMESH THAKUR AND WAHEGURU PAL SINGH SIDHU
sarily from all forms of involvement in them. At the end of the spectrum,
if the United Nations is unable or unwilling to acquit itself of the ‘‘re-
sponsibility to protect’’7 victims of genocide, ethnic cleansing or other
egregious humanitarian atrocities, Washington can forge multilateral co-
alitions of the willing to lead military interventions to stop the atrocities.
Multilateralism – the coordination of relations among several states
in accordance with certain principles (such as sovereign equality)8 –
remains important to US foreign policy and the United States remains
the pivot of multilateral action in the maintenance of international peace
and security. Because the world is essentially anarchic, it is fundamen-
tally insecure, characterized by strategic uncertainty and complexity re-
sulting from too many actors with multiple goals and interests and variable
capabilities and convictions. Collective action embedded in international
institutions that mirror mainly American value preferences and interests
enhances predictability, reduces uncertainty and cuts the transaction costs
of international action in the pursuit of US foreign policy. ‘‘America
First’’ nationalists are sceptical of the value of the United Nations to US
foreign policy, viewing it more as a constraint. Why should US power be
harnessed to the goals of others? Multilateralism implies bargaining and
accommodation, and compromise is integral to such multilateral negotia-
tion. But US power and assets are such that Washington does not need to
compromise on core values and interests. Liberal institutionalists, in con-
trast, believe that multilateral organizations can externalize such bedrock
US values as respect for the rule of law, due process and human rights.
Multilateralism rests on assumptions of the indivisibility of the benefits of
collective public goods such as peace (as well as international telecom-
munications, transportation, and so on) and diffuse reciprocity (whereby
collective action arrangements confer an equivalence of benefits, not on
every issue and every occasion, but in aggregate and over time).9
US power, wealth and politics are too deeply intertwined with the
cross-currents of international affairs for disengagement to be a credible
or sustainable policy posture for the world’s only superpower. In their in-
sular innocence and in-your-face exceptionalism,10 Americans had long
embraced the illusion of security behind supposedly impregnable lines of
continental defence. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 proved
the vulnerability of the US homeland to quarrels rooted in complex con-
flicts in distant lands.
If isolationism is not an option in today’s globally interconnected
world, unilateralism – the robust use of military force to project US inter-
ests and promote American values overseas – cannot be the strategy of
choice either. Like the two world wars, the ‘‘war’’ against global terror-
ism is neither one from which America can stay disengaged, nor one that
it can win on its own, nor is it one that can be won without full US en-
IRAQ’S CHALLENGE TO WORLD ORDER 9
rather than against other states that posed a clearer and more present
danger in their programmes of weapons of mass destruction or in their
culpability with respect to links to international terrorism, and now
rather than later – and did not help its cause by a continually shifting jus-
tification. The costs incurred, even before the war began, included fis-
sures in the three great institutions of peace and order since World War
II: the United Nations, NATO and the European Union.
Moreover, the war (without UN authorization), though swift and deci-
sive, does not appear to have been as effective as the threat of war. The
ousting of Saddam Hussein might eventually pave the way for a brighter
future for Iraqis but the credibility and authority of the United Nations
appear to have been gravely damaged, and it is not clear that the prestige
of the United States has been greatly enhanced. There was grave disquiet
that the United Nations was being subverted by the US agenda, and that
it risked becoming to the United States what the Warsaw Pact was to the
old Soviet Union: a collective mechanism for legitimizing the dominant
power’s hegemonism. In a worrying portent for the United Nations, sig-
nificant groups in many countries voiced the heretical thought that
they would not have supported a war against Iraq even if backed by the
United Nations. For many of them, the United Nations subsequently
largely legitimized the Iraq war through its recognition and endorsement
of the aftermath of the Iraq war, in particular the occupation of the coun-
try by the coalition forces and the transfer of Iraqi sovereignty to the
transitional government.
The key questions provoked by the above observations are: was the Iraq
war a symptom of tectonic change or, alternatively, was it an event that
might precipitate a collapse of the current world order? That is, do we
need to think in terms of an impending paradigmatic shift, or will modifi-
cations to the current architecture suffice?
In the wake of Iraq, how will key countries, significant regional orga-
nizations and surviving international institutions deal with an unfamiliar
post-Westphalian order of one pre-eminent if virtuous power? How will
the growing divergence between legality and legitimacy, which bitterly
divided not only the international community but also domestic opinion,
be bridged in the course of this significant transition?
To address these issues, the volume begins with a historical chapter
that examines the origins of the Iraq crisis in 1980. This chapter draws at-
tention to two critical moments in the story: first, the Security Council’s
inadequate, indeed misguided, reaction to Iraq’s attack on Iran in 1980;
14 RAMESH THAKUR AND WAHEGURU PAL SINGH SIDHU
Conclusion
The United States has global power, soft as well as hard; the United Na-
tions is the fount of international authority. Progress towards interna-
tional civilization requires that US power be harnessed to UN authority,
so that force is put to the service of law. Through their bitter separation
over Iraq, the United States and the United Nations provoked a legiti-
macy crisis about both US power and UN authority. The United States’
certainty of moral clarity – values that it espouses and principles in de-
fence of which it is prepared to stand up and be counted – put the US
leadership on a course that seriously eroded its moral authority in the ex-
ercise of world power. The United Nations’ lack of a sense of moral clar-
ity diminished its moral authority. The United Nations is the arena
for collective action, not a forum where nations that are unable to do
anything individually get together to decide that nothing can be done
collectively.
IRAQ’S CHALLENGE TO WORLD ORDER 15
Notes
Introduction
Since the establishment of the United Nations almost 60 years ago, some
situations have remained almost permanently on the agenda of the Secu-
rity Council – most obviously the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Kashmir
and Cyprus. In the past 20 years, however, it has been Iraq – even more
than the splintering conflicts in the Balkans – that has provided a staple
item of Security Council meeting agendas. The United Nations has been
engaged with Iraq since the outbreak of its war with Iran in 1980, and has
had an on-the-ground presence in Iraq since 1988, when it stepped in to
monitor a ceasefire between Iran and Iraq, through to the present. The
form of that presence has changed significantly, from a truce-monitoring
group, to a coalition of states assembled under a Security Council man-
date to repel Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, to weapons inspections, sanctions
enforcement and now political brokerage, electoral assistance and state-
building.
The role of the United Nations in managing the Iraq crisis of 2003 –
and its aftermath – can be fully understood only in this historical context.
The Iraq crisis of 2003 was the climax of a drama that has engaged the
United Nations, and particularly the Security Council, for almost a quar-
ter of a century – a little less than half of the life of the United Nations.
To understand the implications of the 2003 crisis for the United Nations’
role, not simply in Iraq but more broadly in maintaining world order,
we must understand how this drama has shaped the role of the United
16
THE UN IN IRAQ, 1980–2001 17
rassingly botched military rescue operation. The Soviet Union had faced
sharp criticism from Iran over its 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. Further,
Iraq had long been a major trade and military client of the Soviet Union
and of France. The United Kingdom was perhaps the most neutral of the
five permanent members of the Security Council (the ‘‘P-5’’) vis-à-vis
Saddam Hussein’s totalitarian Iraq and Ayatollah Khomeini’s chaotic
Iran, while China would tap into a gold-mine of arms sales to both sides
in the murderous war, which was to drag on until 1988. Thus, the balance
of interests in the Council heavily favoured Iraq. In Resolution 479, the
Council ignominiously failed to condemn Iraq’s attack, alienating Iran
for many years, rather calling blandly for a peaceful resolution of the dis-
pute.3 Saddam Hussein can only have concluded from this episode that
the Council was prepared to go to great lengths to accommodate his re-
gional ambitions, with fateful consequences for Iraq 10 years down the
line.
Indeed, in an unvarnished oral history recorded in 2001, Joseph C.
Wilson, US Chargé d’Affaires in Baghdad in 1990, argued that Saddam
Hussein miscalculated his attack on Kuwait in two ways: he believed that
the United States would not waste the lives of US youths in the sands of
Arabia to defend Kuwait; and he hoped the United Nations could be
used to absorb and deflect international outrage:
He had basically made the bet that if he could get the Iraq-Kuwait issue thrown
into the United Nations system, then he could have 20 years in Kuwait. . . . He en-
visioned some toothless resolutions. He had already been the recipient of two res-
olutions on his use of chemical weapons. Nobody remembered them because they
had no biting sanctions to them.4
The United Nations’ response over the next decade provides a catalogue
of the measures available to it as a peace broker in the Cold War years.5
It began with Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim’s quick offer to use his
good offices to mediate the conflict, and his use of his powers under Art-
icle 99 of the UN Charter to bring a threat to the maintenance of interna-
tional peace and security to the attention of the Security Council. When
these early measures – including the unconvincing Security Council call
for peaceful resolution – failed, Waldheim appointed a Special Represen-
tative, who was able to negotiate only very limited concessions by the
warring parties.
In 1984, Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar managed briefly to
secure both parties’ agreement to refrain from the deliberate military at-
tacks on purely civilian centres of population that had been devastating
both populations and were to leave long-lasting scars on both societies,
perhaps most poignantly recorded in Iran’s cinema production of the
1980s and 1990s. The United Nations moved to deploy two small inspec-
20 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
tion teams in the region, to investigate attacks on civilian areas and mon-
itor this truce in the ‘‘war of the cities’’. As attacks on merchant shipping
in the Gulf increased, Western powers (and to a degree the Soviet Union)
moved to protect commercial sea-lanes, threatening escalation of the
conflict.6
Gorbachev’s rise to power in the USSR triggered an increased willing-
ness of the P-5 to cooperate on matters of international peace and secu-
rity, especially where their own interests clearly overlapped, as they did
on the issue of maintaining the supply of oil from the Persian Gulf. This
provided an opening for a diplomatic offensive by Pérez de Cuéllar in the
first half of 1987, leading to the adoption of Resolution 598, whose cor-
nerstone was the demand for a ceasefire to be monitored by a group dis-
patched by the Secretary-General.7 Several days before the ceasefire
eventually commenced on 20 August 1988 (after much further military
jockeying between the parties), the United Nations Iran–Iraq Military
Observer Group (UNIIMOG) deployed in the region to verify, confirm
and supervise the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of all forces
to the internationally recognized boundaries without delay.
UNIIMOG was a classic Cold War peacekeeping operation. With joint
headquarters in Tehran and Baghdad, it had 400 personnel (including 350
military observers), drawn from contributing states on every continent.8
Its Terms of Reference9 mandated it to establish and monitor ceasefire
lines, investigate ceasefire violations and restore calm, supervise troop
withdrawals, build confidence and reduce tensions. The role UNIIMOG
was designed to play in maintaining order in the Gulf was, like the
broader role of the United Nations in maintaining world order at that
time, to use the political capital of neutrality to provide a buffer between
warring parties.
UNIIMOG’s work proceeded relatively smoothly, even following the
Iraqi invasion and occupation of Kuwait in August 1990, immediately af-
ter which Saddam Hussein essentially acceded to all of Iran’s terms for a
de facto disengagement.10 By the end of September 1990, the withdrawal
of forces to the internationally recognized boundaries was almost com-
plete. UNIIMOG completed its mandate on 28 February 1991. Civilian
offices were established in Tehran and Baghdad to allow the Secretary-
General to fulfil the remaining political tasks under Resolution 598
(1987), but were phased out by the end of 1992.
order) and both the nature and scale of the peace operations it was sub-
sequently to deploy. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait represented more than the
passage of an army across a long-disputed border in the remote sands of
Araby. It also signalled the transgression of two lines in the sand: the
prohibition on aggression, and the common global interest in stable oil
supply and prices from the Persian Gulf.
Whether it was to protect international law or the international oil
market, the United States moved immediately following the invasion to
build a coalition of states to reverse Saddam Hussein’s aggression. This
was initially attempted through the imposition of sanctions and a naval
blockade,11 and ultimately by an expeditionary force authorized in Reso-
lution 678 to use ‘‘all necessary means’’ to remove Iraqi occupiers from
Kuwait.12 The United Nations provided a framework that was both obvi-
ous and convenient for this international strategy, lending it legal author-
ity and political legitimacy. For the first time since the UN action in Ko-
rea in the early 1950s, the United Nations was used to reverse a clear case
of inter-state aggression (compounded by Saddam Hussein’s decision to
annex Kuwait outright a few days after the initial invasion), acting under
Chapter VII of the UN Charter to enforce peace.
The shape of the crisis of 1990–1991 is well known, and does not re-
quire detailed discussion here. It is, however, worth reflecting on the cen-
tral political role of the United Nations in the management of the crisis,
because it indicates the expectations and assumptions carried forward by
various actors into the crisis of 2003. Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August
1990; the Security Council acted the very same day, adopting Resolution
660, which condemned the invasion and demanded a complete with-
drawal. Four days later the Security Council adopted Resolution 661,
which imposed comprehensive sanctions on both Iraq and Kuwait and
established the 661 Committee to implement the resolution. This swift
action served as more than a show of strength: it signalled a fundamental
shift in the United Nations’ capacity to act, promising a new decisiveness
in the post–Cold War era.
The United Nations’ centrality in this new era was made clear by
Russian unwillingness to support military action except under UN aus-
pices, and by the use made by other diplomatic intervener powers, such
as France and the Organization of the Islamic Conference, of the General
Assembly and the Security Council to try to shape events.13 The drama
was played out through the United Nations.
At the same time, embedded within this script as it unfolded were
a number of clues to the future direction of UN peace operations. The
sanctions regime imposed by the Security Council included, almost from
its inception, a humanitarian exception, which highlighted tensions
between peace enforcement and humanitarian considerations that were
22 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
Events in Iraq in the early 1990s soon put the lie to perceptions that the
tasks ahead would prove easy to achieve. Internal insurgencies, humani-
tarian crises, black marketeering and human rights violations have all
played out in Iraq since President George H. W. Bush announced the
New Order’s arrival. They have all influenced the United Nations’ role
in seeking to maintain international peace, both in Iraq and throughout
the world. In the fourth phase of UN involvement in Iraq, the Kurdish
and Shiite insurgencies in 1991 and the resulting humanitarian crises
brought about a new multidisciplinarity in UN and other international
responses.
On 15 February 1991, as the war in Iraq raged, President Bush called
on the people of Iraq to ‘‘take matters into their own hands and force
Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside’’. On 26 February, Bush reit-
erated his intention to drive Saddam Hussein from power. But on 28 Feb-
ruary, coalition military action was called to a temporary halt, and on 2
March the Security Council passed Resolution 686, which established
the framework for peace, including the establishment of a formal cease-
fire, with Saddam Hussein very much still in place.18 On the same day,
Shiite militias rose in rebellion in southern Iraq, hoping to capitalize on
Saddam Hussein’s momentary weakness and expecting American sup-
port. Within days, the rebellion had spread to all major Shia centres –
Nasiriyeh, Basra, Najaf and Karbala – and Kurdish rebels mounted their
own offensive in northern Iraq. In a betrayal still keenly resented by the
Shiites, the coalition stood by as Iraq’s Republican Guard swiftly quelled
the rebellions, exacting terrible retribution particularly against the
Shiites.
As the military tide also turned against the Kurds, Kurdish leaders
24 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
Operation Provide Comfort, the UNGCI and the no-fly zones signalled
a more complex operational environment for the United Nations. Iraq
never fully complied with the terms of Resolution 687, so there was never
26 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
a formal peace with Saddam Hussein for the United Nations to keep. But
the United Nations had become a lifeline for large tracts of Kurdish-
controlled northern Iraq. Just as innovative solutions were crafted to
meet the Kurdish population’s needs in the immediate post-war environ-
ment, so creative approaches were designed to ensure containment of
Iraqi belligerence.
These innovations ushered in the fifth phase for the United Nations in
Iraq, involving a multidisciplinary effort to regulate Iraq’s military capac-
ity while also addressing some of its humanitarian needs.26 Inspection of
Iraqi weapons capabilities through the United Nations Special Commis-
sion (UNSCOM) signalled a movement by the Security Council towards
the role of global regulator, and the ‘‘Oil-for-Food’’ and other humani-
tarian programmes vastly expanded the United Nations’ administrative
footprint.
Resolution 687, known informally as the ‘‘mother of all resolutions’’,
required not only Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait and reparations for the
damages inflicted, but also disarmament. In seeking to implement the
terms of this complex, ambitious resolution, the UN Secretariat and
some UN agencies ventured into new territory. The complex regulatory
machinery the United Nations established relied on two methods then
thought to be complementary: first, disarming Iraq through weapons in-
spections and destruction; and, second, restricting Iraq’s capacity to de-
velop new military capabilities by imposing comprehensive sanctions in
a determined (if imperfect) effort to control Iraqi belligerence. But these
sanctions proved perverse: they inflicted terrible suffering on civilians
in Iraq while allowing the targeted government to develop and control
a lucrative black market. In response, ambitious humanitarian objectives
were added by the Council to a mix of policy and regulatory initiatives
that were already difficult to manage constructively with the available
resources.
Developments affecting these programmes also generated changing
perceptions of the role the United Nations could properly play in main-
taining the peace. UNSCOM was established to implement the disarma-
ment demands of Resolution 687. In retrospect, its meticulous auditing
did a great deal to limit Saddam Hussein’s military capacity.27 But the
climate of controversy and brinkmanship fostered by Saddam Hussein
around the weapons inspectors served to undermine, in many quarters,
faith in the efficacy of that regulatory approach. UNSCOM’s successes
usually came from the help of informers and defectors, and the Iraqis
appeared to retreat only when caught cheating, stimulating the view in
Washington that Hussein was hiding both weapons aspirations and mate-
riel.28 Over time, Washington’s fears led to a ratcheting up of pressure
on Hussein, eventually leading to open confrontation in late 1998 be-
THE UN IN IRAQ, 1980–2001 27
tween Hussein and Richard Butler, the Australian UNSCOM head, over
access to sensitive sites. At that point, France joined Russia and China in
arguing that the containment approach of inspections-plus-sanctions had
run its course, leaving Washington and London to act unilaterally when
in Operation Desert Fox they bombed Baghdad for failing to allow UN-
SCOM access to the disputed sites.29 These changing attitudes to the suc-
cess of inspections, and the nature of UNSCOM’s relationship to West-
ern intelligence agencies,30 greatly influenced assessments of the United
Nations’ ability to carry through such a meticulous regulatory approach
to security management, and particularly of what it had to offer to the
United States.
Assessments of the success of this approach were also coloured by
different conceptions of the approach’s purpose. Whereas most countries
saw the inspections-plus-sanctions regime as aimed at Iraqi disarmament,
signs emerged that the United States and the United Kingdom aimed in-
stead at removing Hussein from power. As early as 26 March 1997, US
Secretary of State Albright stated:
We do not agree with the nations who argue that if Iraq complies with its obliga-
tions concerning weapons of mass destruction, sanctions should be lifted . . . Iraq
must prove its peaceful intentions . . . the evidence is overwhelming that Saddam
Hussein’s intentions will never be peaceful.31
now seems likely that billions of dollars were siphoned off from oil export
and other import contracts into Iraqi state and private accounts, a slow-
moving process of which the Security Council was at least passively
aware. Seriously adverse findings by some or all of these inquiries could
reverse the growth in the United Nations’ regulatory and administrative
ambitions in the security field.
Conclusion
Notes
James Cockayne is a graduate scholar at the Institute for International Law and Justice at
New York University Law School; David M. Malone is Assistant Deputy Minister (Africa
and Middle East), Department of Foreign Affairs, Canada. The chapter does not necessarily
represent the views of either organization.
1. The term was given currency by Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld. For further dis-
cussion of the historical evolution of peacekeeping, see James Cockayne and David Ma-
lone, ‘‘The Ralph Bunche Centennial: Peace Operations Then and Now’’, Global Gov-
ernance, Vol. 11, No. 3 (2005), pp. 331–350.
2. See Dilip Hiro, The Longest War: The Iran–Iraq Military Conflict (London: Paladin,
1990); Charles Tripp, A History of Iraq (2nd edn, Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2002), Ch. 6.
3. S/RES/479 (1980).
4. David Ignatius, ‘‘Saddam Hussein Revisited’’, Washington Post, 14 September 2004.
5. See, generally, Brian Urquhart, A Life in Peace and War (New York: HarperCollins,
1987).
6. These patrols at times threatened to drag Western nations into the conflict. On 3 July
1988, the USS Vincennes, a United States cruiser, mistakenly shot down an Iranian com-
mercial airliner, killing all 290 passengers and crew on board. In other incidents, Iranian
attacks on US naval vessels led to US retaliatory strikes on Iranian oil platforms, which
have only recently been resolved through litigation before the International Court of
Justice: see Oil Platforms (Islamic Republic of Iran v. United States of America), ICJ,
Judgment (6 November 2003).
7. S/RES/598 (1987). The P-5 diplomacy involved in negotiating this text, much of it con-
ducted in private in New York, was to set the pattern of P-5 initiatives, often domina-
tion, within the Council ever since. See Cameron Hume, The United Nations, Iran and
Iraq: How Peacemaking Changed (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1994),
pp. 71–72, 90–102; and see David Malone, ‘‘The UN Security Council in the 1990s: In-
consistent, Improvisational, Indispensable,’’ in Ramesh Thakur and Edward Newman,
New Millennium, New Perspectives (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2000),
pp. 21–45.
8. Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ghana, Hun-
gary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway,
Peru, Poland, Senegal, Sweden, Turkey, Uruguay, Yugoslavia and Zambia. New Zea-
land operated an air unit, and the Observer Group also included military police pro-
vided by Ireland and medical orderlies from Austria.
THE UN IN IRAQ, 1980–2001 31
9. UN Doc. S/20093.
10. See the exchange of letters between Saddam Hussein and Iranian President Rafsanjani
on 30 July and 8 August 1990, respectively, in UN Doc. S/21556, 17 August 1990, p. 4.
11. See Resolution 661 (6 August 1990); Resolution 665 (25 August 1990); Resolution 666
(13 September 1990); Resolution 670 (25 September 1990).
12. Resolution 678 (29 November 1990).
13. On 24 September 1990, French President François Mitterrand, speaking at the UN
General Assembly, proposed a four-phase peace plan, including dealing with the
Arab–Israeli problem. On 3 October, the foreign ministers of the Organization of the
Islamic Conference, meeting on the margins at the United Nations, demanded Iraqi ad-
herence to UN resolutions and expressed support for those Gulf states seeking foreign
military assistance. The stance of the OIC was crucial: it signalled regional legitimacy
for UN peace enforcement. On 15 January 1991, France unexpectedly took centre-
stage, suggesting that the Security Council agree to an international conference on Pal-
estine if Iraq withdrew from Kuwait. The United States and the United Kingdom
strongly opposed the suggestion. The French withdrew the proposal, then blocked a
British resolution making a last-minute appeal to Iraq to withdraw unconditionally
from Iraq.
14. This led in Resolution 692 (1991) to the establishment of the UN Compensation Com-
mission in Geneva, which has dealt with 2.6 million claims for death, injury, loss of or
damage to property, commercial claims and claims for environmental damage. It has
paid out more than US$18 billion in compensation, funded by Iraqi oil sales under the
Oil-for-Food programme. See especially Andrea Gattini, ‘‘Old Rules, New Procedures
on War Reparations’’, David Caron and Brian Morris, ‘‘The United Nations Compensa-
tion Commission: Practical Justice, Not Retribution’’ and Merritt B. Fox, ‘‘Imposing Li-
ability for Losses from Aggressive War: An Economic Analysis of the UNCC’’, all in
European Journal of International Law, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2002), pp. 161–182, 183–200,
201–222.
15. S/RES/687 (3 April 1991) and S/RES/689 (9 April 1991).
16. Mikhail S. Gorbachev, ‘‘Reality and the Guarantees of a Secure World’’, in Foreign
Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: Soviet Union, 17 September 1987, pp. 23–
28.
17. See David Malone, ‘‘The UN Security Council in the Post-Cold War World: 1987–97’’,
Security Dialogue, Vol. 28, No. 4 (December 1997), p. 394.
18. S/RES/686 (2 March 1991).
19. S/RES/688 (5 April 1991). Both Turkey and Iran had written letters to the Council char-
acterizing Kurdish refugee flows as a threat to their security, and the Council apparently
saw resemblances between that claim and the Indian characterization of Bengali refugee
flows in 1971 as an act of indirect aggression.
20. The term refers to the effect that global media have on the determination of foreign
policy. See Steven Livingston, Clarifying the CNN Effect: An Examination of Media
Effects According to Type of Military Intervention, Joan Shorenstein Center, John
F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Research Paper R-18, June
1997.
21. A similar arrangement was considered for Burundi in 1996, when the government lost
control of parts of its territory, which required humanitarian assistance. The option was
not ultimately pursued.
22. Although the Russian Federation and China objected to enforcement of the no-fly
zones and Operation Provide Comfort, they did so in a low-key way, suggesting initially
at least pragmatic acquiescence.
23. In the north, the United States, the United Kingdom and France proclaimed a no-fly
32 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
zone on 10 April 1991, relying specifically on Resolutions 678, 687 and 688. In the south,
they relied on Resolutions 687, 688 and, later, 949 (1994).
24. In describing certain conflicts as internal or civil, we generally add the prior
qualifier ‘‘essentially’’ because these conflicts rarely remain strictly internal for long –
neighbouring countries often spilled in (as in the Democratic Republic of Congo) or
the conflict spilled over (as with Colombia’s turmoil spilling over into border areas of
Ecuador and Peru and into the domestic politics of Venezuela).
25. An Agenda for Peace, Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-keeping, UN Doc.
A/47/277–S/24111 (17 June 1992).
26. Multidisciplinary Peace-keeping: Lessons from Recent Experience (New York: United
Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations, April 1999).
27. As Fareed Zakaria has noted, US weapons-tracker David Kay’s assertion after the 2003
Iraq war that ‘‘we were all wrong’’ in expecting to find weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq overlooks the accuracy of the UN inspectors’ reporting; see Fareed Zakaria, ‘‘We
Had Good Intel – The U.N.’s’’, Newsweek, 9 February 2004.
28. See Lawrence Freedman, ‘‘War in Iraq: Selling the Threat’’, Survival, Vol. 46, No. 2
(Summer 2004), pp. 7–50.
29. See Richard Butler, Saddam Defiant: The Threat of Mass Destruction and the Crisis of
Global Security (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2000); and see David Malone,
‘‘Goodbye UNSCOM: A Sorry Tale in US-UN Relations’’, Security Dialogue, Vol. 30,
No. 4 (December 1999), pp. 393–411.
30. Susan Wright, ‘‘The Hijacking of UNSCOM’’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 55,
No. 4 (July/August 1999).
31. Madeline Albright, Remarks at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., 26 March
1997, available at hhttp://secretary.state.gov/www/statements/970326.htmli.
32. See UN Doc. S/1999/356 (27 March 1999).
33. Resolution 986 (14 April 1995).
34. See Memorandum of Understanding between the Secretariat of the United Nations and
the Government of Iraq on the Implementation of Security Council Resolution 986
(1995), in Letter Dated 20 May 1996 from the Secretary-General Addressed to the Presi-
dent of the Security Council, UN Doc. S/1996/356* (20 May 1996).
35. UN News Centre, ‘‘On Eve of Its Expiry, Annan Hails ‘Unprecedented’ Iraq Oil-for-
Food Programme’’, 20 November 2003.
36. See David Cortright and George A. Lopez, ‘‘Reforming Sanctions’’, in David M. Ma-
lone, ed., The UN Security Council from the Cold War to the 21st Century (Boulder,
CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004), pp. 167–179; Peter van Walsum, ‘‘The Iraq Sanctions Com-
mittee’’, in ibid., pp. 181–193; David J. R. Angell, ‘‘The Angola Sanctions Committee’’,
in ibid., pp. 195–204; David Cortright and George A. Lopez, Sanctions and the Search
for Security: Challenges to UN Action (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002); see, gener-
ally, hhttp://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/theindex.htmi.
37. See S/RES/1284 (17 December 1999).
38. S/RES/1409 (14 May 2002).
39. See, for example, the committees established by Resolutions 1540 (2004) – weapons of
mass destruction; 1533 (2004) – Democratic Republic of Congo; 1521 (2003) – Liberia;
1518 (2003) – Iraq; 1373 (2001) – Counter-Terrorism Committee; 1343 (2001) – Liberia;
1298 (2000) – Ethiopia and Eritrea; 1267 (1999) – Al Qaeda and the Taliban; 1160
(1998) – Kosovo; 1132 (1997) – Sierra Leone; 985 (1995) – Liberia; 918 (1994) –
Rwanda; 864 (1993) – UNITA (National Union for the Total Independence of Angola);
751 (1992) – Somalia; 748 (1992) – Libya. The International Criminal Tribunal for the
Former Yugoslavia and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda can also be
considered as subsidiary organs of the Security Council designed to enforce detailed ad-
THE UN IN IRAQ, 1980–2001 33
An article in the New York Times on the eve of the 2004 US presidential
election began by asserting that the predominant view in Europe seemed
to be that, ‘‘[n]o matter who wins the presidential election next week, the
consequences for American-European relations will be bad’’. The author
traced this conclusion to the strong feeling among Europeans that neither
France nor Germany, the two linchpins of the Continent’s transatlantic
relationship, would be willing to come to the aid of the United States in
Iraq regardless of who won the US election.1 Analyses such as this one
tend to portray the United States’ relations with major European powers
in one-dimensional terms. They argue that everything hinges on Iraq
and ignore the dense web of interlocking security and economic interests
that bind the industrialized countries of Western Europe and the United
States together. As Joseph Nye has put it very aptly, ‘‘[i]n their relations
with each other all advanced democracies are from Venus.’’2
The clear recognition of this commonality of interests was demon-
strated by the atmosphere surrounding, and the rhetoric during, US Sec-
retary of State Condoleezza Rice’s trip to Europe in February 2005.
Rice’s trip was aimed above all at mending fences with the two leading
European allies – France and Germany – that had differed from the US
on the invasion of Iraq. The United States’ relations with France had par-
ticularly soured on this issue. However, Rice made clear in her major for-
eign policy speech on 8 February in Paris that ‘‘history will surely judge
us not by our old disagreements but by our new achievements’’.3
In this chapter we suggest that, although substantial changes to the
37
38 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
international system have occurred since the end of the Cold War, the re-
lationship among the industrialized, affluent and powerful countries of
the global North basically has not been altered. This is because these
relationships were only partly driven by the common Soviet threat. They
were driven in equal, if not greater, measure by the need to protect and
enhance the interests that Western industrialized states had in common
vis-à-vis the majority of states in the economic, political and security
spheres. It was recognized even during the Cold War era that potentially
serious threats to the economic and security interests of the powerful and
affluent countries of the global North could arise from other parts of the
world, especially from the more recalcitrant and radical states from the
global South, whose interests were likely to diverge fundamentally from
states that composed the overlapping membership of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development, the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) and the Group of Seven (G-7).
This conclusion was based on the assumption that there was a ‘‘struc-
tural conflict’’ built into the relationship between the North and the
South and that this was likely to drive Southern states to ‘‘gang up’’
on the North and use their numbers in international organizations to
push through agendas deleterious to the interests of the industrialized
powers. Stephen Krasner made this argument most cogently and force-
fully in 1985. He advised Western/Northern states to ‘‘disengage’’ as
far as feasible from the countries of the global South. He considered this
essential to prevent the North’s undue dependence, especially in the eco-
nomic sphere, on a web of intertwining relationships with potential
adversaries.4
The Achilles’ heel of Krasner’s analysis was that it attributed greater
cohesion to the groupings of third world states, such as the Group of 77
(G-77) and the Non-Aligned Movement, than they possessed. He also
overestimated the will and capacity of third world states to challenge the
major industrialized countries on issues vital to the latter. He did so be-
cause he ignored the vulnerabilities of individual post-colonial states, in-
cluding the major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, and their conse-
quent dependence in economic and security matters on the major powers
of the global North. Such dependence gravely hampered the translation
of their collective rhetoric into meaningful collective action.5 Despite
these shortcomings, Krasner’s diagnosis that the interests of the Northern
and the Southern states diverged, and continue to diverge, significantly in
the economic and political arenas was not far off the mark.
From the perspective of the rich and the powerful, events since the
ending of the Cold War have added to the saliency of challenges emerg-
ing from the global South, whether in the shape of political Islam, espe-
cially in its more extreme manifestations, ‘‘rogue’’ states engaged in clan-
THE UNIPOLAR CONCERT 39
destine proliferation activities, or forces in the global South that resist the
Northern conception of globalization, in the economic as well as the cul-
tural spheres, because they perceive it to be deleterious to the interests of
their societies. A recent report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Re-
lations and chaired by Henry Kissinger and Lawrence Summers suggests
that ‘‘[t]here is a consensus within the transatlantic community on the
numerous challenges facing common interests. These include terrorism,
authoritarianism, economic incompetence, environmental degradation,
and the kind of misrule that exacerbates poverty, encourages discrimina-
tion, tolerates illiteracy, allows epidemics, and proliferates weapons of
mass destruction.’’6 This is a polite way of saying that the major threats
to international order as conceived in the capitals of the global North
come from the South, particularly from those forces that the major
powers are not in a position to control.
We argue that there are remarkable continuities in crucial areas be-
tween the Cold War and post–Cold War epochs, especially the contradic-
tions inherent in the political and economic relations between the global
North and the global South that are a function of the position in which
they find themselves in terms of stages of state-making and phases of eco-
nomic development. It is no coincidence, therefore, that North–South
relations are increasingly taking centre-stage in contemporary inter-
national affairs. This is demonstrated by the division of opinions visible
in several important areas, including the US-led invasion of Iraq, the
Israel–Palestine conflict, and humanitarian intervention, as well as major
economic issues relating to tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, terms
determining foreign investment, and questions of equity in relation to
intellectual copyright and patents.
Neatly dividing the history of international relations into distinct phases
often obscures the enduring elements of international politics. The end of
the Cold War did mean the end to bipolarity and competition between
the United States and the Soviet Union in the strategic arena. However,
this by itself did not lead to a fundamental restructuring of international
politics that would require a completely brand-new set of tools to explain
and understand it. Analysts of the post–Cold War era who argued that
systemic change had occurred with the end of superpower competition
ignored the fact that today’s key concepts, such as globalization, multi-
lateralism and fundamentalism, have their roots in the Cold War period
and indeed in earlier epochs.7 We need to acknowledge the historical
roots of such phenomena in order to explicate the current structure of
international society. It is only by examining both the changes and the
continuities in the international system that we can assess what has fun-
damentally changed and what has not in the politics and economics of
international relations.
40 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
unipolarity did not mean that the relationships and processes that had
been developed during the 50 years before that suddenly disappeared.
The continuity of behaviour is evident not only in the case of the mu-
tual relationships among the states of the global North but also in the
case of North–South relations. Indeed, the ending of the Cold War has
made issues of North–South asymmetry more salient. Although the new
vocabulary of post–Cold War analysis developed in US and European
academia, emphasizing as it does terms such as globalization, unipolarity
and multilateralism and the apparent tensions among them, may succeed
in hiding these continuities both among the states of the North and be-
tween the North and the South for some time, analysts of international
affairs with a keen sense of history and sociology, not to mention eco-
nomics, are bound to realize that in many spheres the post–Cold War
era is the linear descendant of the Cold War period.
tional system, from the economic and political claims of the newly inde-
pendent states that had just emerged into statehood after decades, and
in some cases centuries, of colonial subjugation. The need to do so had
become particularly urgent because, with decolonization, the states of
the West/North had been rendered a numerical minority in the system
of states and the new entrants into the system had begun to clamour for
‘‘justice’’, ‘‘representation’’ and, in some cases, ‘‘reparation’’ in the form
of a transfer of resources from the North to the South.10 That such con-
certed action was deemed necessary by the industrialized powers was
clearly demonstrated during the negotiations in the second half of the
1970s on the New International Economic Order (NIEO). These negotia-
tions ended without agreement because the North, led by the United
States, was unwilling to make the concessions necessary to make a dent
in the industrialized countries’ privileged position in the world economy.
The stalemate on NIEO left intact the status quo that favoured the global
North.11
The conclusion that the industrialized states must act in relative unison
was reinforced by the end of the Cold War, which removed the veneer
of superpower competition from the reality of a North–South contradic-
tion, which was economic, political, military and, some would argue, civi-
lizational and cultural as well. This understanding was reflected in the
popularity in the global North of the neoliberal argument that privileged
absolute gains over relative gains.12 This argument depicted, among
other things, the common interests of the affluent and the powerful states
in cooperating with each other to further their economic and security
goals. Although the neoliberals argued for the universal validity of their
paradigm in an increasingly integrating world, it was clear that the neo-
liberal model was basically grounded in the realities of the global North.
The ethnocentric nature of the neoliberal enterprise demonstrated by im-
plication the difference between the states of the global North and those
of the global South. The latter, as some analysts were quick to point out,
continued to work under the supposedly discredited realist framework
and, therefore, could not be assimilated into a neoliberal world.13
More importantly, the neoliberal rhetoric provided a cover for the re-
alist foundations on which North–South relations, in the economic as well
as the political-military fields, were and are based. James Richardson has
pointed this out very succinctly. According to him, neoliberalism has ‘‘a
striking resemblance to certain forms of realism. Both seek to reinforce
the interests of the powerful by enjoining accommodation to them . . .
The major contrast is that realism places power at the center of its theo-
rizing, whereas neoliberalism shows its respect for power through total
silence.’’14 Neoliberalism did yeoman service to the industrialized coun-
tries by promoting the status quo and making it intellectually respectable
THE UNIPOLAR CONCERT 43
while concealing the element of raw power that underwrote this status
quo. It did so by implicitly acknowledging the critical role of power while
obfuscating its importance by means of the absolute gains rhetoric.
The concept of absolute gains that informs the mutual relationships
of the industrialized countries in both the economic and security spheres
can neither explain nor determine either the security predicament or the
economic quandary faced by states in the third world. This is better ex-
plained by a realist, but not neo-realist, logic that is informed by the in-
equality in North–South relations, as well as by the security predicament
faced by many states in the global South, which is related to their early
stage of state-making and late entry into the system of states.15 These cir-
cumstances make for greater disorder within states of the global South
as well as a higher propensity for intra-state and inter-state conflict in
the third world. They also explain the high degree of economic inequality
within these states as well as the great chasm separating them from the
industrialized countries in terms of economic development and affluence.
The chasm between the global North and the global South also helps
explain the nature of the Concert and its objective of creating an interna-
tional order that preserves its privileged position in the international sys-
tem while containing the level of disorder within it, seen as mostly ema-
nating from the global South. Given the congruence of interests among
the industrialized states of the global North, the United States’ unrivalled
power does not undermine the unity of the Concert; it augments its power
vis-à-vis those outside the Concert. Therefore, in the current context,
unipolarity is quite compatible with the notion of a Concert of Powers,
albeit one in which one of the members is far more powerful than the
others and, therefore, demands and is accorded due deference. It would
be apt to describe it as a ‘‘unipolar concert’’, a term that simultaneously
depicts the unrivalled power of the Concert’s leader and demonstrates
the basic cohesion of its members’ interests.
The use of the term ‘‘unipolarity’’, itself a derivative of polarity, in
much of the Western discussion of contemporary international affairs
serves a useful rhetorical purpose because it portrays the image that the
return to the good old days of balance of power politics is not far away.
By doing so, it diverts analytical attention from, and thus obscures the re-
ality of, the real clash of interests between the strong and affluent states
represented by the Concert, on the one hand, and the weak and poor
states, a much more amorphous group, on the other. By emphasizing
unipolarity and the tactical differences that emerge from time to time be-
tween the leading power and the pack that it leads, members of the Con-
cert hide the fact that there is a basic agreement among them about the
rules and norms of the international system and the basic premises on
which international order should be organized. Unipolarity is, therefore,
44 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
This chapter does not mean to belittle these fissures, because they are in
fact quite real in terms of strategy and tactics. However, we do not
believe that these developments will result in a radical change in intra-
Concert relations or in the use of multilateralism as we know it, for two
reasons.
First, the Concert of the North Atlantic – with the United States in the
lead – maintains its power in the international system by exploiting the
multilateral regimes (be they in the financial, trade or security realm) it
has worked so hard to create over the past 50 years. It is, therefore, un-
likely that the United States or the major European powers will eviscer-
ate a mechanism that has served them so well for so long and that has be-
come embedded in their conception of the international system. There
have always been disagreements about, and various levels of ambiva-
lence toward, specific forms of multilateralism. Although the disagree-
ments may seem more pronounced today, there is nothing to suggest that
powerful states have given up on the fundamental features of the multi-
lateral order over which they preside.
Second, disagreements in the Concert are often around policy choices,
as opposed to the fundamental rules of the system or the basic objectives
set by the Concert of Powers. Deterring and punishing ‘‘rogue’’ states and
denying unconventional capabilities to those outside the Club were, and
are, shared objectives from which no member of the Concert dissents.
This was very clear in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. A care-
ful reading of the UN Security Council debates on Iraq from 1991 to 2003
makes it obvious that there was hardly any dissent among the club of
powerful states that steps should be taken in relation to Iraq that would
severely derogate from Iraq’s sovereignty and eventually bring about
regime change in that country. The imposition of no-fly zones and inva-
sive inspections under UN auspices between 1991 and 2003 clearly dem-
onstrated this unity of purpose. The differences were over the tactics that
should be employed in order to achieve these ends. It was these differ-
ences that came to a head in 2003 on the eve of the invasion of Iraq by
the United States and the United Kingdom. The same applies to the Con-
cert’s objectives regarding Iran. The shared objective is to deny Iran nu-
clear weapons capabilities and to curb its regional influence; the debate is
about how best to attain these goals. The differences among leading mem-
bers of the Concert are, once again, tactical rather than fundamental.
A similar situation prevails in the economic arena. Although there may
be differences over details and even intra-Concert bickering about cer-
tain issues (for example, the US attempt to impose tariffs on European
steel), there is a basic consensus about prying open world markets under
the guise of free trade and liberal investment policies, thus making it eas-
ier for developed countries to market their high-valued-added products
THE UNIPOLAR CONCERT 47
In the political arena, tearing down the sovereignty barrier in the name
of humanitarian intervention serves much the same purpose of preserv-
ing the dominance of the global North. Such interventions undertaken se-
lectively to punish ‘‘rogue’’ states such as Iraq and Yugoslavia that are
unwilling to fall in line with the wishes of the great powers send the clear
message that opposing the international establishment is likely to incur
THE UNIPOLAR CONCERT 49
heavy costs. The selectivity with which the normative injunctions of the
emerging global society are applied makes this charade very clear. Inter-
ventions take place when it suits the strategic and economic interests of
the ‘‘coalition of the willing and the able’’ (read, the North Atlantic Con-
cert). Where it does not suit the global hegemon or the dominant Con-
cert, the evolving norms of supposedly global society are disdainfully dis-
regarded. The cases of Rwanda and Sudan exemplify this outlook.26
The selectivity demonstrated in the application of the norms of global
society leads one to draw two important conclusions. First, sovereignty
continues to be a cherished value as far as powerful states and their cli-
ents are concerned. Advising the weak to dispense with sovereignty and
with their preoccupation with state security and relative gains is one thing;
applying it to powerful states and their coalitions is quite another. As
Lyons and Mastanduno have pointed out, the argument that sovereignty
has been superseded as the organizing principle of international political
life cannot be successfully sustained unless it is demonstrated ‘‘by refer-
ence to ‘critical’ cases . . . The clearest set of critical cases would involve
instances in which the exertion of some form of international authority
significantly constrained major powers in their pursuit of their interests
. . . If we look at the present processes of international decision making
[the veto power of the P-5 in the UN Security Council and the G-7’s
domination of international financial institutions], however, the prospect
of finding such critical cases appears to be unlikely.’’27
Second, the rhetoric of globalization and of the global society is em-
ployed to provide a facade for the operation of a very realist paradigm
by the powerful states of the global North in their relationship with the
states of the global South, many of which continue to be weak and vul-
nerable and, therefore, incapable of ensuring their own security. Austra-
lian scholar James Richardson has captured this reality very lucidly.
Analysing the post–Cold War period, he concludes: ‘‘Self interest now
appears to dictate that the leading powers remain associates rather than
rivals, as balance of power logic would have required, but the anarchic
system structure points to their retaining a military capability to protect
their favored position against the less favored.’’28
The retention of vastly superior military capability is currently achieved
through what has come to be known as the Revolution in Military Affairs
(RMA) or the Military Technological Revolution (MTR). RMA capacity
has been summed up succinctly by Eliot Cohen in the following words:
‘‘What can be seen by high-tech sensors can be hit, what can be hit will
be destroyed.’’29 The concentration of such capacity in the hands of a
very few states makes one thing very clear, namely that the hierarchy of
military power has seldom been as rigidly stratified as it has become to-
day as a result of RMA. The United States, the leading RMA power, sits
50 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
Conclusion
What does all this mean for the issue of unipolarity and multilateralism in
a globalizing world? It means first that unipolarity, although it gives the
impression of US hegemony, is, despite intra-alliance differences, a pre-
tence for what is really a Concert of Powers, which we have dubbed the
Concert of the North Atlantic. Where differences emerge within the Con-
cert, they appear on issues of strategy and tactics not those of objectives
and goals. The Concert is clearly led by the United States, which, as all
leaders do, sometimes moves so far ahead of the pack that it makes the
rest very uncomfortable. Manoeuvrings then start to bring it back into
line. It is in this context that arguments about the value of institutions
that bind the hegemon are made.31 The Kissinger and Summers report
cited earlier makes it plain that ‘‘[d]isagreements on policy, not differ-
ences over the utility of international institutions, have caused most of
these [recent] clashes’’ in the transatlantic relationship.32 The European
insistence that the United States give more attention to multilateralism is
a plea for consultation among members of the Concert, not an argument
to strengthen institutions of global governance in which the less powerful
would have a major voice. This is a distinction that must clearly be borne
in mind by analysts engaged in debating the merits of multilateralism
versus unilateralism. For those outside the Concert, multilateralism and
unilateralism often appear as variations on the same theme of uninvited
intervention.
52 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
which ‘‘the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must’’.
This backsliding from society to anarchy, despite the solidarists’ naive
claims to the contrary, is a prelude to a serious breakdown of order in
the international system.33
We see signs of this impending anarchy in unilateral military actions
in defiance of international consensus and in doctrines justifying preven-
tative, and not merely pre-emptive, war. We see it in escalating interna-
tional terrorism and what appears to many as an approaching ‘‘clash of
civilizations’’ between the ‘‘Judeo-Christian’’ North/West and the Mus-
lim world. We see it also in the attraction that weapons of mass destruc-
tion (WMD) hold for the weak. The episode linked to Pakistani nuclear
scientist A. Q. Khan has demonstrated that the dissemination of nuclear
material and technology is no longer all that difficult to achieve. Notwith-
standing the Libyan decision to renounce WMD and Iran’s greater,
although hesitant, cooperation with the International Atomic Energy
Agency, the incentive to proliferate has increased during the past decade.
North Korea’s recent public admission that it possesses nuclear weapons
may be an indication of things to come.34 This may very well be because,
as stated earlier, acquisition of WMD capacity appears to the weak and
the vulnerable as their most effective defence against the possession of
RMA weaponry by members of the powerful Concert led by the United
States. Efforts to acquire WMD and the spread of international terrorism
demonstrate that the imposition of order, without it being tempered by
justice, creates its own backlash. This is a lesson that the capitals of the
major powers forget at their own peril.
Similarly, unless globalization is tempered by a genuine concern for
intra-state and inter-state justice, it is likely to become a serious source
of destabilization both domestically and internationally. Resentment
against globalization among those who feel left out, indeed hurt badly,
by its relentless free market logic, which disregards negative social conse-
quences, is building up in the global South. Such resentment is likely to
increase as Southern polities democratize and previously disempowered
segments of their populations undergo rapid political mobilization
and access to political power. This is why it is important to heed the
words of Foreign Policy in its study of globalization, which suggest that
‘‘those most interested in promoting global integration must do more to
heed the concerns of those who feel marginalized by it, lest the backlash
against globalization becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy’’.35 The rejection
by the Indian electorate in 2004 of the globalization-friendly ruling Hindu
nationalist party’s slogan ‘‘India Shining’’ can in part be directly attrib-
uted to the backlash among the rural and urban poor against the growing
economic inequalities in the world’s largest electoral democracy.
To conclude, we do not believe that there is any inherent contradiction
54 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
Notes
A previous version of this chapter appeared as ‘‘The Unipolar Concert: The North–South
Divide Trumps Transatlantic Differences’’, World Policy Journal, Vol. 22, No. 1 (2005).
1. Richard Bernstein, ‘‘Many in Europe See U.S. Vote as a Lose-Lose Affair’’, New York
Times, 29 October 2004.
2. Joseph S. Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public
Affairs, 2004), p. 20. This, of course, counters Robert Kagan’s argument that, ‘‘on major
strategic and international questions today, Americans are from Mars and Europeans
are from Venus’’. Robert Kagan, Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the
New World Order (New York: Knopf, 2003), p. 3.
3. Stephen R. Weisman, ‘‘Rice Calls on Europe to Join in Building a Safer World’’, New
York Times, 9 February 2005.
4. Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).
5. For an analysis that juxtaposes the collective aspirations of third world states and their
individual vulnerabilities, thus elucidating the apparently schizophrenic tendencies they
demonstrate, see Mohammed Ayoob, ‘‘The Third World in the System of States: Acute
Schizophrenia or Growing Pains?’’, International Studies Quarterly (March 1989),
pp. 67–79.
6. Henry A. Kissinger and Lawrence H. Summers (co-chairs) and Charles A. Kupchan
(project director), Renewing the Atlantic Partnership: Report of an Independent Task
Force Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (New York: Council on Foreign
Relations, 2004), p. 7.
7. For prominent analyses that posit that the end of the Cold War heralded fundamental
systemic transformation, see Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the
Making of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), and Francis Fukuyama,
The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992).
8. Joseph S. Nye, Jr, Understanding International Conflicts (5th edn, New York: Pearson,
2005), p. 37.
9. For a succinct case that the United States’ current global predominance constitutes uni-
polarity, see Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, ‘‘American Primacy in Per-
spective’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 18, No. 4 (July/August 2002), pp. 20–33.
10. This is what Hedley Bull had aptly termed ‘‘the revolt against the West’’, which went
beyond issues of politics and economics to the norms and rules governing international
THE UNIPOLAR CONCERT 55
society. Hedley Bull, ‘‘The Revolt against the West’’, in Hedley Bull and Adam Watson,
The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), pp. 217–228.
11. Krasner, Structural Conflict; Robert Mortimer, The Third World Coalition in Interna-
tional Politics (2nd edn, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1986).
12. For a classic assertion of neoliberalism, see Robert Keohane, After Hegemony (Prince-
ton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984).
13. For example, James M. Goldgeier and Michael McFaul, ‘‘A Tale of Two Worlds: Core
and Periphery in the Post-Cold War Era’’, International Organization, Vol. 46, No. 2
(Spring 1992).
14. James L. Richardson, Contending Liberalisms in World Politics: Ideology and Power
(Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001), pp. 89–90.
15. For a theoretical exposition of this perspective, see Mohammed Ayoob, ‘‘Inequality and
Theorizing in International Relations: The Case for Subaltern Realism’’, International
Studies Review (Fall 2002), pp. 27–48.
16. Graham Allison, ‘‘The Impact of Globalization on National and International Security’’,
in Joseph S. Nye and John D. Donahue, eds, Governance in a Globalizing World
(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), p. 72.
17. Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 184.
18. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002).
19. Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization (New York: Oxford University Press,
2004).
20. Dani Rodrik, The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making Openness
Work (Washington, DC: Overseas Development Council, 1999).
21. Sean Kay, ‘‘Globalization, Power, and Security’’, Security Dialogue, Vol. 35, No. 1
(2004), p. 11.
22. For example, see Charles Kupchan, The End of the American Era (New York: Knopf,
2002), and Robert Kagan, Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New
World Order (New York: Knopf, 2003).
23. Paul Hirst and Grahame Thompson, Globalization in Question (2nd edn, Cambridge:
Polity, 1999), p. 2.
24. William Drozdiak, ‘‘The North Atlantic Drift’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 1
(January–February 2005), p. 89.
25. Elaine Sciolino, ‘‘Turkey Advances in Its Bid to Join European Union’’, New York
Times, 7 October 2004.
26. For details of this argument, see Mohammed Ayoob, ‘‘Humanitarian Intervention and
State Sovereignty’’, International Journal of Human Rights, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Spring 2002),
pp. 81–102.
27. Gene M. Lyons and Michael Mastanduno, ‘‘Introduction: International Intervention,
State Sovereignty, and the Future of International Society’’, in Gene M. Lyons and
Michael Mastanduno, Beyond Westphalia? State Sovereignty and International Inter-
vention (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995), p. 17.
28. James L. Richardson, ‘‘The End of Geopolitics?’’, in Richard Leaver and James L.
Richardson, eds, Charting the Post-Cold War Order (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993),
pp. 45–46.
29. Eliot A. Cohen, ‘‘A Revolution in Warfare’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 2 (March–
April 1996), p. 45. Also see Lawrence Freedman, ‘‘Revolutions in Military Affairs’’, in
Gwyn Prins and Hylke Tromp, eds, The Future of War (Boston, MA: Kluwer Law Inter-
national, 2000).
30. Joseph S. Nye, Jr and William A. Owens, ‘‘America’s Information Edge’’, Foreign Af-
fairs, Vol. 75, No. 2 (March–April 1996), pp. 20–36.
56 MOHAMMED AYOOB AND MATTHEW ZIERLER
31. John Ikenberry, After Victory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001).
32. Kissinger and Summers (co-chairs) and Kupchan (project director), Renewing the
Atlantic Partnership, p. 20.
33. For a discussion of the notion of international society in an anarchic international sys-
tem, see Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (New York: Columbia University Press,
1977), and Robert Jackson, The Global Covenant (New York: Oxford University Press,
2000). For a sophisticated solidarist conception of international society, see Nicholas
Wheeler, Saving Strangers (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000).
34. James Brooke, ‘‘North Korea Says It Has Nuclear Weapons and Rejects Talks’’, New
York Times, 10 February 2005.
35. A. T. Kearney, ‘‘Measuring Globalization: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?’’, Foreign Policy
(January/February 2003), p. 72.
4
International peace and security
and state sovereignty: Contesting
norms and norm entrepreneurs
Brian L. Job
Introduction
One can compare and contrast two general approaches to explaining why,
how and what types of international institution states form to manage
their economic, political and security relations.2 The first is that the ma-
jor powers or dominant power in the system dictate the form and opera-
tive rules of institutions in a manner that facilitates maximization of their
(its) interests, accepting ‘‘strategic restraints’’ as balanced against the
costs of influence or coercion to gain the compliance of weaker states. In
Ikenberry’s words:
In this institutional bargain, the leading state wants to reduce compliance costs
and weaker states want to reduce their costs of security protection or the costs
they would incur trying to protect their interests against the actions of a dominant
lead state. . . . [T]he leading state agrees to restrain its own potential for domina-
tion and abandonment in exchange for the long-term institutionalized coopera-
tion of subordinate states.3
Norm entrepreneurs
The United Nations was created in the mid-twentieth century in the after-
math of the ‘‘great event’’ of World War II. As one of the key compo-
nents of the institutional systemic framework orchestrated by the victori-
ous powers, the United Nations bears the mark of their interests and
aspirations. The United States, just emerging as the post-war leading
state, had significant influence in this context but was not in a position to
overrule the positions of its key Western allies.12 The UN Charter must
be viewed as a particularly complex ‘‘institutional bargain’’ – a bargain
among the major powers themselves and a bargain between these leading
states and the remaining independent states of that era. Thus, the UN ar-
chitecture balances the General Assembly, an inclusive and consensual
body of equals, with the Security Council, a great power management
committee mandated to authorize the use of force but self-constrained
by the veto power given to its permanent five members.
The ‘‘institutional compact’’, i.e. the core set of normative principles
embodied in the United Nations, is fraught with inherent tension. The
enshrining of the principles of state sovereignty, territoriality, non-
intervention and the right of self-defence for all members is juxtaposed
against the rights of the major powers not only to authorize the use of
force but to call for, indeed compel, other states to undertake action on
behalf of the United Nations. Presumably, this trade-off was acceptable
to the leading states, as security providers, and to the other states, which
anticipated both a more secure environment and a restraint upon adven-
turism by the major powers. However, the United Nations’ institutional
compact involved more than this sovereignty/security logic; for the West-
ern allies, a fundamental mission was the advancement and protection of
the human rights of the ‘‘peoples of the world’’. From its inception, the
United Nations and the post-war international community as a whole
wrestled with normative challenges to the absolutist interpretations of
state sovereignty.
tensions over the key norms of the international order. In effect, these
states owed their existence to the combined impact of profound norma-
tive change (the overthrowing of historical norms underpinning colonial-
ism), on the one hand, and the reinforcement of traditional norms (the
claim to sovereign equality and inviolability), on the other. However, the
‘‘quasi-state’’ status of many of these new members raised increasing
concerns for others, both in terms of their practical capacities to sustain
productive international relations with their neighbours and in terms of
the plight of their civilian populations, often exacerbated by government
actions. During the Cold War, these tensions were muted through the
major powers’ exercise of influence on their clients and proxies. But
they were by no means dispelled. As Ted Gurr and his associates have
demonstrated, the rising trend of deadly intra-state violence began sev-
eral decades ago. What has changed is the level of attention given to
these conflicts, owing to the combined effects of Western publics’ aware-
ness through the media of the suffering of civilians, the recognition of the
trans-border and trans-regional spillover effects of such conflicts, and a
more congenial atmosphere within the United Nations for responding to
these situations.13
An invigorated United Nations Security Council, enabled in particular
by a US leadership committed to the advancement of a ‘‘new world
order’’, took up the challenge of responding to these conflicts – the first
few years of the 1990s witnessed the Council’s authorization of more
peace operations than in its previous four decades.14 This enthusiasm
quickly subsided as the practical challenges of mounting substantial multi-
lateral missions, the intractability of communal violence, and the finan-
cial, but more centrally the human, costs of undertaking such missions
were brought home to Western governments. From the mid-1990s on-
wards, the role of the UN Security Council increasingly became limited
to legitimization, i.e. authorizing regional bodies or groups of member
states to intercede in conflict situations.15 The United States, in particu-
lar, backed away from engagement in UN missions, in light of the nar-
rowed parameters of its international role as articulated in President
Clinton’s Presidential Decision Directive 25, and an accompanying pref-
erence for operating in US-led multilateral coalitions.
Debates over the authorization and the legitimacy of the use of force
came to the fore towards the end of the 1990s. In simplistic terms, these
have been portrayed as pitting those who seek to maintain the primacy of
state sovereignty, non-intervention and national security against those
who argue for the higher priority of securing the safety and well-being
of citizens. From this latter, ‘‘human security’’ perspective,16 states have
64 BRIAN L. JOB
for change coming from NGOs, non-major power states and within inter-
national institutions. Primary among them at present is UN Secretary-
General Kofi Annan. Increasingly since 1999, his statements have come
to advocate the notions that ‘‘state sovereignty, in its most basic sense, is
being refined’’, that ‘‘states are now widely understood to be instruments
in the service of their peoples, and not vice versa’’.21 Annan’s position, of
course, is a delicate one, balancing the necessity of operating within the
constraints of his office and sustaining the support of the United Nations’
leading members against his entrepreneurial agenda for a reorientation
of institutional priorities.
Initial norm entrepreneurial leadership was provided outside the
United Nations, indeed in reaction to the United Nations’ failure and
with the aim of circumventing the United Nations’ stymied decision-
making. This leadership came from the foreign ministers and key political
individuals in the smaller and middle powers. Thus, individuals including
Gareth Evans (Australia) and Lloyd Axworthy (Canada), through the
force of their own personalities and the energies of their countries’ for-
eign services, in tandem with activist NGO communities, not only coined
and advanced the concepts noted above, but were instrumental in cre-
ating initiatives around conflict diamonds, the protection of civilians and
the plight of child soldiers.
It would be a mistake, however, not to acknowledge indications of
change within the United Nations itself. A key indicator is the Security
Council’s interpretation of what constitutes a threat to international
peace and security and, in turn, its authorization of the use of force in
peace operations. In numerical terms, there has been a remarkable in-
crease in the Council’s willingness to invoke Chapter VII.22 What is
more significant is the changing definition of what the Council counts as
a threat to international peace and security. As early as 1991, when first
confronting Saddam Hussein, the Council was prepared to regard the re-
pression of civilians as creating a threat to regional/international peace
and security.23 Since 1992 (Somalia), the protection of humanitarian per-
sonnel has become an almost standard consideration in invocations of
Chapter VII. And, with the Sierra Leone crisis of 1999, the Council ex-
plicitly included the protection of civilian populations under threat as a
critical component of its mandate for the forces authorized to intervene.
The Council has abandoned any geographical requirement that a situa-
tion constitute a threat to ‘‘international’’ security. Particularly when the
spectre of spillovers of refugee populations has loomed, the Council has
been quite quick to authorize a Chapter VII response to a regional con-
flict and, more recently, to intra-state situations as well. The protection of
refugee populations and the management of large internally displaced
populations have become central components of many of the past de-
cade’s peace operation missions.
66 BRIAN L. JOB
Thus, David Malone, one of the Council’s most astute observers, con-
cludes that the Council has ‘‘proved highly innovative in shaping the nor-
mative framework for international relations’’.24 Although not explicitly
characterizing its activities as advancing ‘‘human security’’ per se, the
Council clearly has taken substantial steps towards establishing the norm
of protection of civilians at risk in conflict situations. For example, de-
spite China’s extreme sensitivity to principles of state sovereignty, it has
facilitated UN-authorized humanitarian intervention in circumstances in-
volving failed states, e.g. Somalia and, more recently, the Democratic Re-
public of Congo.
Still, a caveat regarding the role of the United Nations is necessary.
Over the past decade and a half, the tendency of states, NGOs and asso-
ciated norm entrepreneurs has been to circumvent rather than to engage
the United Nations. These strategies have taken two forms: on the one
hand, multilateral actions to create new mechanisms that will institution-
alize new regimes around revised norms; and, on the other hand, actions
by states or coalitions of states to use force without first seeking the
authorization of the Security Council. The first strategy is typified by the
process, spearheaded by the Canadian government in coordination with
key NGOs, to establish the Ottawa Convention on the banning of anti-
personnel landmines,25 as well as the subsequent move to create the In-
ternational Criminal Court. The second strategy is typified by US actions
concerning Kosovo and Iraq. It is ironic to note that both Kosovo and,
in retrospect, Iraq have been justified as necessary responses to ‘‘human
security’’ crises in contexts where the United Nations was seen to be
paralysed.
In sum, there is evidence to support the argument that fundamen-
tal change has been set in motion, in particular that ‘‘the dominant
moral discourse about humanitarian action has changed’’. However, the
tensions remain, and the issues are not settled. Thus, although one can
conclude that a ‘‘humanitarian impulse’’ certainly guides the Security
Council’s actions on matters of peace and security, this cannot be charac-
terized as a ‘‘humanitarian imperative’’.26 Indeed, in Adam Roberts’
words, ‘‘all attempts to reach an agreed doctrine favoring humanitarian
intervention have failed’’.27
The extent to which the United States now holds its place as the domi-
nant global power requires no rehearsal. For many analysts, this struc-
CONTESTING NORMS AND NORM ENTREPRENEURS 67
An uncertain future
the administration [being] deeply divided between those who want to escape the
constraints of the post-1945 institutional framework that the United States helped
to build and those who believe the US goals are better achieved by working with-
in the framework. The neoconservative ‘‘Wilsonians to the right’’ and the ‘‘Jack-
son unilateralists’’ . . . are pitted against the more multilateral and cautious tradi-
tional realists.35
Already observers are suggesting that the hard lessons that the United
States is learning in Afghanistan and Iraq are tempering its harsher rhet-
oric and introducing nuance into its attempts to orchestrate effective mul-
tilateral support for its policies. That being said, it would be optimistic to
assume that any subsequent administration in Washington is going to
dramatically alter key premises of the United States’ post-9/11 approach
to advancing its national security agenda. For the foreseeable future, the
‘‘war on terrorism’’ will remain the central pillar of US foreign policy, the
asserted right of pre-emptive attack against perceived imminent threats
will not be revoked, and the United States will not restrict the pursuit of
its interests by participating in any multilateral security forum requiring
decision-making by consensus.
The challenges to international norms of sovereignty and multilateral-
ism may diminish in the short term, but they will not disappear.
CONTESTING NORMS AND NORM ENTREPRENEURS 71
The larger picture and the longer term: A global public goods
dilemma36
Some multilateral institutions will remain important for our interests. But increas-
ingly multilateralism is a synonym for an ineffective and unfocused policy involv-
ing internationalism of the lowest common denominator. Multilateral institutions
need to become more results oriented if they are to serve the interests of the in-
ternational community. . . . We are prepared to join coalitions of the willing that
can bring focus and purpose to address the urgent security and other challenges
we face.37
Such attitudes obscure a larger and more significant matter, namely that
the provision of international institutions constitutes a set of public goods
– public goods that are critical to the sustained stability of the interna-
tional and regional security orders. Policies of ‘‘instrumental multilateral-
ism’’, if practised by all states or by the most influential states, will inevi-
tably erode these core foundations. So too will policies of ‘‘a la carte
multilateralism’’, i.e. the arbitrary picking and choosing among interna-
tional regimes or among the components of international regimes to suit
immediate national interests.
The historical record suggests that such policies are short-sighted and
ultimately place greater burdens on the international community. The
frameworks of international and regional norms and institutions required
to ensure peace and stability are delicate mechanisms. They can and
should evolve as new circumstances dictate, and the present is indeed a
moment when important changes are warranted. However, creating in-
ternational and regional security architectures is an onerous task. In
order to assure the longer-term provision of these essential international
public goods, the major power must itself exercise positive leadership and
be willing to absorb disproportionate costs of institution-building and
maintenance. Whether or not, and how, this leadership will be taken up
72 BRIAN L. JOB
Notes
I acknowledge the support for research and writing of the Social Science and Humanities
Research Council of Canada and the Security and Defence Forum programme of the Centre
of International Relations, University of British Columbia. Erin Williams and Ana-Marie
Blanaru, Department of Political Science, UBC, provided excellent research assistance; Kal
Holsti helped to refine key arguments. The views expressed are mine alone.
1. Thus, in terms of a theoretical point of view, this chapter is self-consciously written from
what international relations theorists have labelled a constructivist perspective, whose
key insight is captured in the title of Alexander Wendt’s 1992 article ‘‘ ‘Anarchy Is
What States Make of It’: The Social Construction of Power Politics’’, International Or-
ganization, Vol. 46 (1992), pp. 391–426.
2. As Ikenberry makes clear, there are more than two perspectives on the formation and
operation of international institutions among students of international relations. Fur-
thermore, along the lines of his own arguments, when tackling the emergence of specific
institutions at a particular historical juncture, a synthesis of elements of different proto-
typical models provides the most satisfactory explanation. See G. John Ikenberry, After
Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001).
3. G. John Ikenberry, ‘‘State Power and the Institutional Bargain: America’s Ambivalent
Economic and Security Multilateralism’’, in Rosemary Foot, S. Neil MacFarlane and
Michael Mastanduno, eds, US Hegemony and International Organizations (Oxford: Ox-
ford University Press, 2003), pp. 49–72, at p. 50.
4. In his study of the formation of international institutional orders, Kalvei Holsti focuses
more on the role of the ‘‘concert’’ of major powers and less on the determinative influ-
ence of a single major power. See Kal Holsti, Taming the Sovereigns: Institutional
Change in International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
5. See Ikenberry, After Victory.
6. See Thomas Biersteker and Cynthia Weber, ‘‘The Social Construction of State Sover-
eignty’’, in Thomas Biersteker and Cynthia Weber, eds, State Sovereignty as Social
Construct (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 1–22; and Christian
Reus-Smit, ‘‘The Constitutional Structure of International Society and the Nature of
Fundamental Institutions’’, International Organization, Vol. 51 (1997), pp. 555–590.
7. These two approaches to thinking about international institutions also embody distinc-
tive interpretations of multilateralism. On the one hand, multilateralism can refer to the
‘‘coordination of relations’’ among two or more states, varying according to the level
and extent of coordination. Alternately, multilateralism can be viewed as involving ad-
herence to and advancement of certain norms – procedural norms, normative principles
of conduct and expectations of longer-term cooperation (diffuse reciprocity). On the
former, see John Ikenberry, ‘‘Is American Multilateralism in Decline?’’, Perspectives
on Politics, Vol. 1 (2003), pp. 534–550; for the latter, see John Ruggie, ‘‘Multilateralism:
The Anatomy of an Institution’’, in John Ruggie, ed., Multilateralism Matters: The
Theory and Praxis of an Institutional Form (New York: Columbia University, 1993),
pp. 3–48; and Brian L. Job, ‘‘Matters of Multilateralism: Implications for Regional
Conflict Management’’, in David Lake and Patrick Morgan, eds, Regional Orders:
CONTESTING NORMS AND NORM ENTREPRENEURS 73
Building Security in a New World (University Park, PA: Penn State University Press,
1997), pp. 165–191.
8. Kal Holsti, Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order, 1648–1989 (Cam-
bridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
9. Thus, for Kenneth Waltz, the logic of the post–Cold War power distribution dictated
that Japan and Germany should aspire to become nuclear powers. See ‘‘The Emerging
Structure of International Politics’’, International Security, Vol. 18 (1993), pp. 44–79.
10. See Mathew Evangelista, Unarmed Forces: The Transnational Movement to End the
Cold War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999).
11. Successful norm entrepreneurship also requires opportunistic timing and coordinated
strategizing. The ‘‘cycle’’ of norm change is discussed in detail in Martha Finnemore
and Kathryn Sikkink, ‘‘International Norm Dynamics and Political Change’’, Interna-
tional Organization, Vol. 52 (1998), pp. 887–917; Margaret Keck and Kathryn Sikkink,
‘‘Transnational Advocacy Networks in International Politics: Introduction’’, in Activists
beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell Uni-
versity Press, 1998).
12. See Inis Claude, Swords into Plowshares (New York: Random House, 1983).
13. Monty G. Marshall and Robert Ted Gurr, ‘‘Peace and Conflict 2003: A Global Survey
of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy’’, College Park,
MD: CICDM, University of Maryland, 2003.
14. Indeed, the Council had become largely moribund in this regard, having not authorized
a single mission between 1978 and 1988, in effect stymied by major power interests in
Afghanistan, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and so on.
15. See Brian L. Job, ‘‘The UN, Regional Organizations, and Regional Conflict: Is There a
Viable Role for the UN?’’, in Richard Price and Mark Zacher, eds, The United Nations
and Global Security (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2004).
16. See Fen Hampson, Madness in the Multitude: Human Security and World Disorder (Don
Mills: Oxford University Press Canada, 2002).
17. A key early statement is David Baldwin, ‘‘The Concept of Security’’, Review of Interna-
tional Studies, Vol. 23 (1997), pp. 3–26.
18. William T. Tow and Russell Trood, ‘‘Linkages between Traditional Security and Hu-
man Security’’, in William T. Tow, Ramesh Thakur and In-Taek Hyun, eds, Asia’s
Emerging Regional Order: Reconciling Traditional and Human Security (Tokyo: United
Nations University Press, 2000), pp. 13–32.
19. Kofi A. Annan, ‘‘Two Concepts of Sovereignty’’, The Economist, 18 September 1999.
20. The ‘‘responsibility to protect’’ was coined by Francis Deng, referring initially to the
responding to the plight of refugee populations. However, it is the Responsibility to
Protect report by the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty
(Ottawa: International Development Research Centre, December 2001) – a norm entre-
preneurship initiative of the Canadian government, the UN Secretary-General, several
large foundations and like-minded notable persons – that has placed this concept at the
heart of contemporary discourse on international security. The report has had a signifi-
cant impact; notably, the 2004 UN High-level Panel Report adopts both the language
and the logic of the ‘‘responsibility to protect’’.
21. Annan, ‘‘Two Concepts of Sovereignty’’.
22. Wallensteen and Johansson provide a detailed charting of this dramatic increase in the
Council’s invocation of Chapter VII, in their ‘‘Security Council Decisions in Perspec-
tive’’, in David Malone, ed., The UN Security Council: From the Cold War to the 21st
Century (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004), pp. 17–33. They note (p. 19): ‘‘Ninety-
three per cent of all Chapter VII resolutions passed from 1946 to 2002 have been
adopted since the end of the Cold War.’’
74 BRIAN L. JOB
23. See Joanna Weschler, ‘‘Human Rights’’, in Malone, ed., The UN Security Council,
pp. 55–68, at p. 57.
24. See Malone, ed., The UN Security Council, p. 9.
25. Maxwell A. Cameron, Robert J. Lawson and Brian W. Tomlin, eds, To Walk without
Fear: The Global Movement to Ban Landmines (Toronto: Oxford University Press,
1998).
26. See Thomas G. Weiss, ‘‘The Humanitarian Impulse’’, in Malone, ed., The UN Security
Council, specifically p. 46, and in general regarding this conclusion.
27. Adam Roberts, ‘‘The Use of Force’’, in Malone, ed., The UN Security Council, pp. 133–
152, at p. 146. As concerns the Responsibility to Protect report, Roberts characterizes it
as ‘‘an ingenious attempt at a reformulation of the question of humanitarian interven-
tion, [with] so far little sign of states explicitly accepting such a responsibility’’.
28. Ikenberry, ‘‘Is American Multilateralism in Decline?’’, p. 537.
29. For an excellent treatment of these arguments, especially the notion of US exceptional-
ism, see Edward C. Luck, ‘‘American Exceptionalism and International Organization:
Lessons from the 1990s’’, in Foot, MacFarlane and Mastanduno, eds, US Hegemony
and International Organizations, pp. 25–48.
30. Ibid., p. 26, footnote 2.
31. ‘‘Secretary Rumsfeld Speaks on ‘21st Century Transformation’ of U.S. Armed Forces
(transcript of remarks and question and answer period)’’. Remarks as Delivered by Sec-
retary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, National Defense University, Fort McNair, Wash-
ington, D.C., Thursday, January 31, 2002; hhttp://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/2002/
s20020131-secdef.htmli (accessed 25 January 2006).
32. Philip Zelikow, ‘‘The Transformation of National Security’’, The National Interest, Vol.
71 (2003), pp. 17–28.
33. The argument that the United States is a contemporary norm entrepreneur could be
challenged. First, one could point out that ‘‘international norms’’ must espouse univer-
sal content and universal applicability. That is, they must be seen by their advocates as
being inclusive and reciprocal, neither enabling nor excluding only themselves. One
could question whether, in this sense, the Bush administration seeks to advance norms
or simply to justify specific self-interested activities. However, I argue that the United
States sees itself and is seen by others as a norm entrepreneur, and that the signs are
becoming more apparent as the second George W. Bush term unfolds. This does not im-
ply that either consistency or universality is involved. One sees a combination of selec-
tive reliance upon very traditional interpretations of sovereignty and self-help with the
advancement of principles of democratic empowerment and particularistic interpreta-
tions of ‘‘freedom’’. (I am indebted to Kal Holsti for pointing out the first argument.)
34. Bush’s comment is from Dan Balz, ‘‘President Puts Onus back on Iraqi Leader’’, Wash-
ington Post, 7 March 2003, cited in Ikenberry, ‘‘Is American Multilateralism in De-
cline?’’. Colin Powell’s statement is from ‘‘Remarks at Business Event’’, Shanghai,
People’s Republic of China, 18 October 2001, hhttp://www.state.gov/secretary/former/
powell/remarks/2001/5441.htmi (accessed 25 January 2006).
35. Joseph Nye, ‘‘US Power and Strategy after Iraq’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82 (2003),
pp. 60–73, at p. 63.
36. These remarks are expanded upon in Job, ‘‘The Challenges of International Relations
and International Regimes: Emerging Parameters of a New Regional Paradigm’’, 17th
Asia Pacific Roundtable, Kuala Lumpur, 6–9 August 2003.
37. Alexander Downer, ‘‘Security in an Unstable World’’, speech to the Australian Na-
tional Press Club, 26 June 2003.
5
The world says no: The global
movement against war in Iraq
David Cortright
75
76 DAVID CORTRIGHT
Much of the success of Win Without War and the anti-war movement in
the United States can be ascribed to the powerful impact of Internet or-
ganizing and to the role of MoveOn specifically. It was during the Iraq
anti-war movement that the full range of possibilities for utilizing the In-
ternet for social change organizing became evident. The global justice
movement used the Internet effectively as a means of communication, co-
ordination and education among decentralized networks of organizers
around the world. To these functions, anti-war activists added new
dimensions of Internet mobilization: the development of organized
‘‘membership’’ networks, the creation of ‘‘meeting tools’’ to facilitate co-
ordinated local actions, and on-line fundraising. The result was an un-
precedented capacity to raise consciousness and mobilize political action.
MoveOn was the pioneer and leading force in this Internet revolution.
The group was formed in 1998 to stop the impeachment of Bill Clinton. It
was the lead group within Win Without War and served as the backbone
of the movement’s most important organizing and communication efforts.
In the six months leading up to the outbreak of war in March 2003,
MoveOn’s on-line membership, US and international, grew from 700,000
to approximately 2,000,000. Other electronically based networks also ex-
perienced extraordinary growth and activity during this period. True Ma-
jority was founded in June 2002 and grew rapidly as the anti-war move-
ment emerged, reaching 100,000 members by the end of 2002 and 500,000
a year later.
When Internet organizing began, some sceptics questioned the value of
a tool that kept activists glued to their computer screens. The very ease
THE GLOBAL MOVEMENT AGAINST WAR IN IRAQ 79
with which one could click and send off a message, sometimes to hun-
dreds of recipients, seemed to cheapen the value of the effort. MoveOn
and the other Internet-based activist groups recognized these limitations
early on and devised methods of mobilization that significantly broad-
ened the impact of e-mail activism. One important innovation was the
use of the Internet to organize coordinated local meetings. Activists were
encouraged to leave their computer screens and go out to meetings where
they connected with other activists in their communities. MoveOn devel-
oped a meeting tool that organizer Eli Pariser termed ‘‘action in a box’’.
Action campaigns were programmed so that respondents could be led
easily through a series of prompts offering various venues and functions
for action. An e-mail message from MoveOn would contain the call to
action and, by clicking the appropriate icons, the respondent could be
connected to other activists and could volunteer for various tasks, rang-
ing from attending a meeting and sending an e-mail to Congress, to more
ambitious duties such as coordinating a meeting, speaking in public and
contributing funds. By segmenting lists according to location and interest,
Internet organizers could use their membership base to sponsor highly
particularized forms of action. Equally important in translating Internet
communications into political power were the development and use of
on-line fundraising. Just as on-line marketing has become increasingly
significant in the commercial economy, Internet-based fundraising has
rapidly become a vital source of income for social movements, non-profit
groups and political campaigns.
Other organizations with more traditional membership bases also de-
veloped e-mail networks during the anti-war movement. The religious-
based organization Sojourners saw its newly created Sojo list expand
from 20,000 in the summer of 2002 to approximately 70,000 in March
2003. Peace Action, The Council for a Livable World and many other or-
ganizations also developed e-mail listservs and experienced growth in
electronic membership. All of these groups used the Internet as a mech-
anism for political communication and fundraising. The use of electronic
organizing and the overall growth of anti-war activism led to membership
increases in most of the established peace organizations. Women’s Action
for New Directions, Peace Action and Physicians for Social Responsibil-
ity all reported 20 per cent increases in membership during the anti-war
campaign.13 The movement against war in Iraq thus became an opportu-
nity for traditional peace groups to grow organizationally and financially.
US war plans. A March 2003 poll by the Pew Research Center for the
People and the Press measured anti-war opposition in Turkey at 86 per
cent. Some 300,000 people demonstrated in Ankara as members of par-
liament gathered to vote on 1 March. The legislators were under enor-
mous pressure, pulled by a powerful ally to provide military cooperation,
pushed by an energized domestic constituency to represent the over-
whelming popular rejection of war. It was a critically important moment
for the young Justice and Development Party, which was trying to create
a more democratic, yet Islamist, tradition in Turkish politics. When the
parliamentary votes were tallied, the resolution to approve the US re-
quest fell three votes short of the required majority. Officials in Washing-
ton immediately demanded a revote, but Turkish leaders refused, fearing
that an attempt to overturn the vote would bring down the government.
The Turkish people and their elected representatives had spoken. The
answer was no.
There were countless other global anti-war expressions. In Australia,
the Senate voted to censure Prime Minister John Howard for agreeing
to deploy troops to Iraq without parliamentary approval. It was the first
no-confidence vote in the chamber’s 102-year history. Australian opinion
polls at the time showed 76 per cent of the public against participation in
a war without UN backing.22 In the national elections of October 2004,
however, Australian voters gave Prime Minister Howard an unprece-
dented fourth term in office. In South Korea, Roh Moo Hyun won the
presidency in December 2002, in part by riding a tide of anti-American
sentiment. In his political campaign, Roh vowed to continue the concilia-
tory ‘‘sunshine’’ policy toward North Korea of his predecessor, Kim Dai
Jung, rather than the confrontational approach favoured by the Bush
administration. Roh’s electoral victory was the third among long-term
American allies based upon popular rejection of US foreign policy. In
Pakistan, the elections of October 2002 showed a significant gain for
pro-Taliban, anti-American religious parties. A group of six hard-line
parties, campaigning on a platform that included sharp criticism of US
policy, won a higher than expected number of seats in Pakistan’s national
assembly and gained a majority in the North-West Frontier Province near
the Afghanistan border.23 The election results were more anti-American
than anti-war, but they were another sign of deepening political opposi-
tion to the United States around the world.
The significance of this pervasive anti-war sentiment for US policy
can scarcely be exaggerated. The anti-war movement contributed to a
major realignment of global public opinion. Former president Jimmy
Carter wrote, ‘‘The heartfelt sympathy and friendship offered to America
after the 9/11 attacks, even from formerly antagonistic regimes, has been
largely dissipated; increasingly unilateral and domineering policies have
84 DAVID CORTRIGHT
Media communications
The Iraq anti-war movement featured the largest, most sophisticated and
most successful media communications effort in the history of the peace
movement. Anti-war movements traditionally have suffered from poor
media relations. As Todd Gitlin and others have observed, peace activists
have been slow to appreciate the enormous significance of media commu-
nications for social change. In recent decades, however, peace and justice
activists have come to recognize the power and influence of the media.
They have seen how communications strategies are becoming the domi-
nant factor in shaping political discourse and swaying political opinion.
When the debate over war in Iraq began, many activists were determined
to mount an effective public relations and media communications
campaign.
THE GLOBAL MOVEMENT AGAINST WAR IN IRAQ 85
The Iraq anti-war movement was the most successful in history at me-
dia communications. Through the extensive use of the Internet, profes-
sional public relations services, paid newspaper and television advertis-
ing, and the participation of famous artists and musicians, the movement
utilized the tools of mass communications to an unprecedented degree.
More than a dozen full-page advertisements in the New York Times, hun-
dreds of ads in local newspapers, hundreds of national and regional tele-
vision ad placements, thousands of national and local television and radio
interview programme appearances, and thousands of articles in national
and local newspapers – all brought visibility and credibility to the anti-
war message. The Win Without War media effort generated hundreds
of millions of viewer impressions. This vast media communications cam-
paign did not sway the unlistening Bush administration, but it signifi-
cantly influenced public opinion.
Reflections
tion of the state system at the United Nations significantly limits the influ-
ence of non-governmental actors. In some instances, government leaders
attempt to use the United Nations instrumentally to shape domestic
political dynamics. Some governments, such as those in Germany and
France, have used diplomacy at the United Nations to appeal to anti-
war opinion at home. Other countries, such as Australia, Italy and Japan,
have cited international obligations to the United States and the United
Nations to override domestic anti-war sentiments. Even when govern-
ments are highly attentive to public opinion, they are less likely to be
swayed on matters of international policy than on issues of domestic pol-
icy. Anti-war movements face special challenges in attempting to exert
political influence. Because national security is at stake, or is claimed to
be, there is a greater tendency on the part of the public to give political
leaders the benefit of the doubt. Citizens tend to be less well informed on
international issues than on domestic issues. Foreign policy is usually less
subject than domestic policy to democratic control. When foreign policy
is mediated through international institutions, the challenge of exerting
democratic influence is even greater.
The degree to which anti-war opposition weighed on the deliberations
of the Bush administration is unknown, and may not be known until for-
mer officials write their memoirs. In the aftermath of the 15 February
demonstrations, the President professed to be unmoved by the massive
protests, saying that he would not decide policy merely on the basis of a
‘‘focus group’’.29 Such denials of social movement influence are standard
fare among political leaders who are the target of protest. During the
Viet Nam era, President Nixon dismissed the huge Moratorium rally
at the Washington Monument on 15 November 1969, claiming that he
ignored the protest and was watching football on television. As Daniel
Ellsberg later observed, however, the memoirs of Nixon and of his top
aide H. R. Haldeman showed that the administration was deeply con-
cerned about the Moratorium actions, and was forced to abandon its
plans for a major military escalation against North Viet Nam for fear of
sparking even greater protests.30 Ronald Reagan and his advisers dis-
missed the nuclear freeze demonstrations and referenda of the early
1980s as ‘‘all sponsored by a thing called the World Peace Council’’31 (a
false and absurd attempt to attack the movement as communistic). In
fact, US public pressure during the 1980s derailed the MX missile system,
blocked civil defence planning, persuaded Congress to halt funding for
nuclear tests and forced the White House to begin negotiations with the
Soviets that eventually led to significant arms reduction.32
One impact of the Iraq anti-war debate that has not been widely ac-
knowledged was the strategic decision of the White House to justify its
pre-planned war by emphasizing the supposed threat from Iraqi weapons
THE GLOBAL MOVEMENT AGAINST WAR IN IRAQ 89
Notes
1. Estimates of the numbers of demonstrators and anti-war events are drawn from
the website of United for Peace and Justice, the largest grassroots peace coalition in
the United States. See ‘‘The World Says No to War’’, 15 February 2003, hhttp://www.
unitedforpeace.org/feb15.htmli (accessed 24 November 2003). For newspaper accounts
of the protests, see Angelique Chrisafis et al., ‘‘Threat of War: Millions Worldwide
Rally for Peace’’, Guardian (London), 17 February 2003, p. 6; Glenn Frankel, ‘‘Millions
Worldwide Protest Iraq War’’, Washington Post, 16 February 2003, p. A1; Alan Lowell,
‘‘1.5 Million Demonstrators in Cities across Europe Oppose a War in Iraq’’, New York
Times, 16 February 2003, Section 1, p. 20.
2. Barbara Epstein, ‘‘Notes on the Antiwar Movement’’, Monthly Review, Vol. 55, No. 3
(2003).
3. Ibid.
4. Mark Levine, ‘‘The Peace Movement Plans for the Future’’, Middle East Report, July
2003, hhttp://www.merip.org/mero/interventions/levine_interv.htmli (accessed 24 No-
vember 2003).
5. Stephen Gill, Power and Resistance in the New World Order (London: Palgrave, 2003),
p. 218.
6. Rebecca Solnit, ‘‘Acts of Hope: Challenging Empire on the World Stage’’, Orion,
20 May 2003, hhttp://www.oriononline.org/pages/oo/sidebars/Patriotism/index_SolnitPR.
htmli (accessed 24 November 2003).
7. Patrick E. Tyler, ‘‘Threats and Responses: News Analysis; A New Power in the
Streets’’, New York Times, 17 February 2003, p. A1.
8. Jonathan Schell, ‘‘The Other Superpower’’, The Nation, 27 March 2003, hhttp://
www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20030414&s=schelli (accessed 14 September 2004).
9. Jeoffrey Nunberg, ‘‘As Google Goes, So Goes the Nation’’, New York Times, 18 May
2003, Section 4, p. 4.
10. James F. Moore, ‘‘The Second Super-Power Rears Its Beautiful Head’’, Berkman
Center for Internet and Society, Harvard Law School, 31 March 2003, hhttp://cyber.law.
harvard.edu/people/jmoore/secondsuperpower.htmli (accessed 21 November 2003).
11. Levine, ‘‘The Peace Movement Plans for the Future’’.
12. Leslie Cagan, interview by author, 26 August 2003.
13. Based on my personal conversations with the directors of the three organizations –
Susan Shaer, Kevin Martin and Bob Musil – in September 2003.
14. Glenn Kessler and Mike Allen, ‘‘Bush Faces Increasingly Poor Image Overseas’’, Wash-
ington Post, 24 February 2003, p. A01; CNN, ‘‘Poll: U.S. More a Threat Than Iraq’’, 11
February 2003, hhttp://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/02/11/british.surveyi (ac-
cessed 19 November 2003).
15. Stefaan Walgrave and Joris Verhulst, ‘‘The February 15 Worldwide Protests against a
War in Iraq: An Empirical Test of Transnational Opportunities’’, unpublished paper,
University of Antwerp, 2003.
THE GLOBAL MOVEMENT AGAINST WAR IN IRAQ 91
16. Crowd estimates in this paragraph are drawn from Bill Weinberg, ‘‘Antiwar around the
World’’, Global Movement Against War: Taking it to the Streets, Nonviolent Activist,
Vol. 20, No. 2 (2003). See also Norm Dixon, ‘‘The Largest Coordinated Antiwar Protest
in History’’, Scoop (New Zealand), 20 February 2003, hhttp://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/
archive/scoop/stories/ed/fa/200302201002.43a56c8a.htmli (accessed 14 November 2003).
17. BBC, ‘‘Pope Condemns War in Iraq’’, 13 January 2003, hhttp://www.news.bbc.co.uk/z/
hi/europe/2654109.stmi (accessed 24 November 2003).
18. CBC, ‘‘Pope Says War Threatens Humanity’’, 22 March 2003, hhttp://www.cbc.cn/
stories/2003/03/22/popewar_030322i (accessed 24 November 2003).
19. Tekla Szymanski, ‘‘Schröder Beats Bush in German Election’’, World Press Review, 26
September 2002, hhttp://www.worldpress.org/europe/741.cfmi (accessed 19 November
2003).
20. Philip P. Pan, ‘‘Turkey Rejects U.S. Use of Bases’’, Washington Post, 2 March 2003,
p. A1.
21. CNN, ‘‘NATO Approves Turkish Deployment’’, 20 February 2003, hhttp://www.cnn.
com/2003/WORLD/meast/02/19/sprj.irq.nato.turkey/index.htmli (accessed 19 Novem-
ber 2003).
22. BBC, ‘‘Australian PM Censured over Iraq’’, 5 February 2003, hhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/
low/asia-pacific/2727551.stmi (accessed 19 November 2003).
23. Guardian (London), ‘‘Boost for Religious Parties in Pakistan Elections’’, 11 October
2002, hhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,810103,00.htmli (accessed 21
November 2003).
24. Jimmy Carter, ‘‘Just War – or a Just War?’’, New York Times, 9 March 2003.
25. The phrase was derived from the report by David Cortright, Alistair Millar and George
A. Lopez, Winning Without War: Sensible Security Options for Dealing with Iraq, Policy
Brief F5, October 2002, hhttp://www.fourthfreedom.orgi (accessed 21 November 2003).
26. Phyllis Bennis, ‘‘Bush Isolated, Launches Terrifying Attack’’, War Times, April 2003,
hwww.war-times.org/current/9art1.htmli (accessed 24 November 2003).
27. Immanuel Wallerstein, ‘‘U.S. Weakness and the Struggle for Hegemony’’, Monthly Re-
view, Vol. 55, No. 3 (2003), p. 28.
28. I am indebted for this insight to Jack Odell, interview by author, 17 December 2003.
29. Quoted in Richard W. Stevenson, ‘‘Antiwar Protests Fail to Sway Bush on Plans for
Iraq’’, New York Times, 19 February 2003, p. A1.
30. See the account of Daniel Ellsberg, ‘‘Introduction: A Call to Mutiny’’, in E. P. Thomp-
son and Dan Smith, eds, Protest and Survive (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1981),
pp. xv–xvi.
31. Quoted in Strobe Talbott, Deadly Gambits: The Reagan Administration and the Stale-
mate in Nuclear Arms Control (New York: Vintage Books, 1985).
32. See the summary of these impacts in David Cortright, Peace Works: The Citizen’s Role
in Ending the Cold War (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
33. See the transcript of the Wolfowitz interview by Sam Tannenhaus of Vanity Fair, 9 May
2003, hhttp://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/2003/tr20030509-depsecdef0223.htmli (ac-
cessed 24 November 2003).
Part III
Perspectives from within the region
6
Iraq and world order:
A Lebanese perspective
Latif Abul-Husn
Prelude
8 November 2002; freeing the people of Iraq from the brutality of a re-
pressive regime (humanitarian intervention); and, lastly, establishing de-
mocracy in Iraq and beyond.
From the outset, public opinion in Lebanon and most of the Arab
world was strongly sceptical of the US intentions and claims. The crisis
brought to the forefront two main concerns: a growing anxiety over an
unrestrained American power which might be challenged and eventually
lead to a veritable ‘‘clash of civilizations’’, and the prospect of destabili-
zation and regime changes in the region. It was emphatically believed
that the United States had avaricious motives in Iraq. The war was not
wholly about WMD and combating terrorism, or about the threat posed
by Saddam Hussein to US security and world peace, or about his defiance
of the United Nations, or about the desire of the United States to bring
liberty and democracy to Iraq and the greater Middle East. It was widely
suspected that the real motivation behind the war was the United States’
desire to control the sources of energy3 and to establish and maintain
global domination.4 The United States found a favourable target in Sad-
dam’s shunned and unpopular regime. Moreover, the US assessment of
the WMD in Iraq was seen by the average Arab citizen as another ex-
ample of US policy, which ignores Israel’s production and stockpiling of
such weapons as well as its stock of nuclear armaments. The argument
abounds that, if the United States wants to make the world more secure,
why not call for a nuclear arms free Middle East region, excluding no
one.
On 20 March 2003, a US-led ‘‘coalition of the willing’’ invaded Iraq
without the explicit authorization of the Security Council. This military
invasion achieved a swift victory over Iraq. No one doubted that out-
come. Iraq was an isolated, exhausted and demoralized regime and a
state crippled by 13 years of economic and military sanctions. The com-
pelling issue was whether the war was really necessary or justified and
what would happen in the aftermath to Iraq and to the region. Europe
was asymmetrically divided on the issue. The Arab world was numbed,
unable to cope with the rationale and consequences of the war. In less
than a month, Iraq was occupied, an oppressive regime defeated and de-
posed, the state institutions destroyed, the army of 400,000 disbanded,
the ruling Ba’ath Party outlawed and persecuted, and society’s centrifu-
gal ethno-religious forces unleashed, although the petroleum industry
was seemingly safe and well protected by the occupying powers.5
Nonetheless, the stated US policy remained unequivocal. It continued
to assert that Saddam’s WMD and his suspected links to al-Qaeda terror-
ists constituted a threat to the United States and to regional and world
peace. However, when the combined UN/IAEA and US Survey Group
inspection process failed to uncover any WMD, no credible links to
98 LATIF ABUL-HUSN
al-Qaeda were apparent, and the US-led coalition’s efforts to govern the
country became unexpectedly costly and futile, a face-saving strategy,
embracing the notion of liberty and democracy, became America’s new
rationale for waging war against Iraq.
The war on Iraq epitomized the US quest for centrality in world affairs
and its desire to capture the ‘‘commanding heights’’ of the new world or-
der and remain at its apex for the foreseeable future, thus denying the
United Nations and any major power a vital role in shaping the interna-
tional system. The world became polarized between power and legality.
Events at the end of the 1980s provided the United States with an op-
portunity to become the leader of a unipolar world. The collapse of com-
munism, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the disbanding of the
Warsaw Pact left the United States as the only superpower. In addition,
those events removed a major source of insecurity for the United States,
enabling it to concentrate on two issues: serving democracy at home and
nurturing its new unipolar status. The United States therefore felt that
it could afford to disengage from certain international commitments and
revert to a mild form of unilateralism, which its self-interest called for.
thority over our war on terror’’.8 High on the agenda of the neoconserva-
tives was the doctrine of pre-emptive war and combating terrorism.
The changing profile of the world order and its impact on the Iraq
crisis
Iraq lost a staunch ally against the West); the petering out of superpower
rivalry; an end to doctrines of containment and deterrence; a commit-
ment to liberal democracy and an open market economy; a decline in
the sanctity of state sovereignty; and an upsurge in ethno-national and
religious conflicts. New concepts such as ‘‘combating terrorism’’, ‘‘pre-
emptive war’’ and ‘‘global democratic revolution’’ were forced on the
international system as the new framework for conducting international
relations. However, the perception of these principles by world leaders
was not uniform. The majority of international actors expressed unques-
tioning support for the United Nations in the face of the new challenges
emanating from the war as well as from the evolving world order.
The end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union provided
the United Nations Organization with a significant opportunity to free
itself from the shackles of superpower rivalries and veto exchanges in
the Security Council. For almost 45 years the United Nations’ capacity
to take up the role that was intended for it in its Charter was curtailed
by superpower rivalry. The upsurge in ethno-national conflicts and the
disdain of major powers for involvement in their resolution unless they
were directly affected provided the United Nations with an opportunity
to retrieve the world’s faith in its role. Changing attitudes toward inter-
vention in domestic conflict and the desanctification of nation-state sov-
ereignty gave the United Nations a wider margin in its efforts to fulfil its
obligation to maintain peace and order in the world. Yet its effectiveness
in settling and resolving some conflicts in the post–Cold War era was
mixed – there were some successes (Namibia, Cambodia, East Timor,
Mozambique) and some dismal failures (Somalia, Rwanda, Bosnia).10
The ideologically based distrust and hostility that marked international
relations during the Cold War era undoubtedly had an impact on UN ac-
tivities. The vetoes cast in the Security Council, reflecting the parochial
interests of the major powers, rendered the United Nations powerless to
deal with many of the conflicts around the globe.11 As a result, only 13
peacekeeping missions were mounted between 1948 and 1989. As soon
as the superpower rivalries vanished, however, the United Nations as-
sumed a new prominence in world affairs and emerged as an indispensable
instrument in conflict resolution and peacebuilding endeavours. Since
1990, its peace operations have vigorously expanded into new areas, such
as conflict prevention and conflict transformation, peacemaking, peace-
building and post-conflict peacebuilding, as well as peace enforcement.
The post–Cold War order brought about the end of superpower rivalry
and the threat of nuclear confrontation, raising hopes that the world
A LEBANESE PERSPECTIVE 101
might, at long last, have entered an era of peace and tranquillity. Al-
though the quest for peace and stability had been nourished by the de-
mise of bipolarity, optimism soon faded as a series of events erupted
around the world. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 with the purpose of an-
nexing it, the former Yugoslavia disintegrated in 1991, war broke out be-
tween Serbia and Croatia, Somalia engaged in a protracted internecine
conflict that involved the major powers and resulted in thousands of ca-
sualties and fatalities, Rwanda succumbed to the nightmare of genocide,
Cambodia’s Pot Pol killed about 3 million of his citizens, and East Timor,
Liberia, Sierra Leone and several other places were not spared the ‘‘but-
terfly effect’’ of conflict.
These were the testing grounds of the post–Cold War order. By failing
to prevent or even to resolve these conflicts, the international community
demonstrated that it had not yet developed resolution capacities in re-
sponse to those deadly conflicts. The United Nations and its agencies
were familiar with inter-state conflicts but not with the domestically
based international conflicts that emerged after the end of the Cold
War. Yet the United Nations was able to overcome this handicap in a
short time. It soon acquired the knowledge and expertise that enabled it
to play a central role in peacekeeping, peacemaking and post-conflict
peacebuilding. This development was affirmed by the world leaders’ deci-
sion at their summit meeting in September 2005, at the UN headquarters
in New York, to recognize the need for a ‘‘peace-building commission’’
that would help countries after the termination of peacekeeping missions.
This endorsement by the international community has seemingly be-
stowed on the United Nations a key role in preventive action.
In the aftermath of the war in Iraq, the US-led coalition failed to put in
place a viable plan to proceed forward. The only place it could turn to for
help was the UN body.12 The UN record in resolving conflicts and its
peacebuilding efforts in war-torn countries such as Mozambique, El Sal-
vador, Haiti, Cambodia and East Timor are testimony to its relevance
and credibility in handling such conflicts at that stage of their life cycle.
Meanwhile, the international community was pressing the United States
to make the United Nations a full partner in the rebuilding efforts of the
new order in Iraq. In the United States itself, leading opposition figures
‘‘demanded at once that the U.N. play a vital role in post war Iraq and
rejected U.S. control of reconstruction or of the post-Saddam govern-
ment’’.13 Europe was vocal in its support for a vigorous and central role
for the United Nations in the new Iraqi order. In a statement on 17 Feb-
ruary 2003, 15 heads of state of the European Union reaffirmed their
commitment to the United Nations and demanded a central role for the
organization in the emerging post 9/11 international order.14 Likewise,
the League of Arab States, meeting at summit level in Tunisia on 16–17
102 LATIF ABUL-HUSN
May 2004, called for a central role for the United Nations in the transi-
tional period, as well as in the political process that would lead to the
termination of the occupation and the rebuilding of state institutions in
Iraq.15
What role did the United Nations play before, during and in the after-
math of the war in Iraq? Two opposing views dominated perceptions
of the UN role. The first, that of the United States, suggested that the
United Nations was irrelevant not only because the Security Council
failed to authorize the war but because the United Nations itself ‘‘is not
some immemorial achievement of the human race’’.16 The other view,
advocated by most of the rest of the world, maintained that the United
Nations had fulfilled its traditional role throughout the crisis, pointing to
the fact that the Security Council was true to the goals of its Charter
when it refused to authorize the US-led war because it could not recon-
cile the authorization to invade Iraq with the principles and goals of the
Charter. The United States argued that elimination of WMD was a Secu-
rity Council request (Resolutions 687 of April 1991 and 1441 of Novem-
ber 2002). Because Resolution 1441 fell short of automatic authorization
for an enforcement intervention, the United States tried to secure a fresh
resolution authorizing it explicitly to use force against Iraq, but aban-
doned its attempt after failing to obtain the required majority in the Se-
curity Council.17
What sort of a political system is expected to emerge in post-war Iraq?
And what role will the United Nations earn for itself in building this sys-
tem? After its failure to uncover any weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq, the United States shifted its emphasis to democratizing the country
along the principles of Western polyarchies. Its rationale is the much-
applauded belief that democracies tend to be more peaceful, and ‘‘the
more democratic [two states are] the less conflict between them’’.18
The US failure to uncover any WMD, whose discovery could have le-
gitimized its invasion and occupation of the country, led the Bush admin-
istration to search for other justifications. It found its lost treasure in the
concept of democracy and the rule of law. Assuming that ‘‘democracies
do not go to war with each other’’, the United States had publicly de-
clared that its interests would be best protected by the promotion of de-
mocracy in non-democratic states. The WMD crisis was morphed into a
crisis of democracy in Iraq and beyond. Will democracy succeed in Iraq?
Kurds of northern Iraq over the spoils of the new Iraq. The Chaldeans
and the Assyrians are demanding official recognition of their political
and cultural identities and interests. However, this tension has not yet de-
generated into a dissociative and disruptive inter-group conflict. The real-
ity that foreign occupation was likely to persist until a stable political sys-
tem emerged provided an incentive to these groups to forge a consensus
that would overcome conflicting goals and cross-cutting interests. Hostil-
ities are still mostly directed at the forces of occupation but, once the oc-
cupation ends, the conflictual tendencies inherent in the social structure
could erupt and escalate into a deadly inter-group conflict and possibly
civil war.
There is a strong indication that the major political trends in Iraq today
are ethno-religiously based. The armed resistance to occupation is pre-
dominantly Sunni; the demand for a democratically elected government
is basically a Shiite desire; federalism is a Kurdish demand and strategy.
The question is, what kind of a political system can accommodate these
contradictory demands and national aspirations and address the griev-
ances of the component communities of Iraq? The Kurds have already
obtained an autonomous status within the Iraqi political system and
achieved a veto power in the Interim Constitution, which was confirmed
in the permanent charter of the new republic.
The United States’ democratizing initiative was intended to commence
in Iraq and be railroaded through to other Middle East countries, in-
cluding Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This initiative sets out President
Bush’s vision for political, economic and social reform in the greater
Middle East following the overthrow of Saddam’s regime. The fact that
it was floated without consulting the Arab leaders in the region made
this new US strategy susceptible to rejection by the countries concerned.
It has been interpreted as ‘‘another attempt by the US to impose its will
on the Middle East’’.19 Questions were raised about how and by what au-
thority the United States could endow itself with the moral authority to
change regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere. Nevertheless, the ini-
tiative seems to have moved the region in that direction. Arab leaders
pledged at their summit in Tunisia in 2004 to move with the times and re-
new their efforts to build their own brand of home-grown democracy.20
For many in this region, the demand for democracy is long overdue, but
the question is whether Arab civic and political culture is ready for this
move. There also remain the serious questions of how democracy can be
woven into the fabric of the Islamic faith and what form it might take.
Creating a democratic system out of the remnants of a totalitarian state
faces many challenges, the most significant of which are: an absence of
political prerequisites such as a competitive party system, interest groups,
an independent judiciary, a free press and a vibrant civil society; a debili-
A LEBANESE PERSPECTIVE 105
lies in the role they play as social organizations through which political
security can be achieved. They have evolved over the years into semi-
autonomous socio-political communities with distinctive political and
administrative functions. This distinctiveness is evident in the power-
sharing arrangement upon which Lebanon’s political order rests and in
the country’s civil status law.
Iraq’s social structure has many similarities to and equivalences with
the Lebanese social structure. It is similarly divided and segmented and
harbours similar conflictual (although more violent) tendencies among
its ethno-religious and national component groups. However, the conflict
process in Iraq took a different direction from that in Lebanon. Since its
independence, Iraq had experienced a chain of violent revolts and revo-
lutions that engulfed almost every ethnic, sectarian and minority group.
Societal peace and political stability in Iraq were maintained through
the exercise of a totalitarian rule in which ethnic, sectarian and national-
istic feelings were brutally suppressed.
Lebanon’s political system has manifested and maintained a reason-
ably acceptable level of stability that could lend itself to consociational
explication. Back in 1864, Lebanon’s major communities agreed to share
power. Since then, this arrangement has become the modus operandi of
the evolving political order in Lebanon. It provided the country with al-
most 100 years of stability and communal peace before the power-sharing
arrangements of consociationalism broke down in the mid-1970s, for a
variety of reasons. Some of the causes were rooted in the power-sharing
practices themselves and some were the result of external influences and
pressures. In 1990, consociationalism was resurrected and reintroduced
into the political system, thus restoring the balance in communal entitle-
ments. A long-term remedy to a pluralist conflictual structure was revived.
Power-sharing practices may not be appealing to the minders of the
new Iraq. It is assumed in the West that Arab countries are in need of
strong government authority, ‘‘yet what is needed in Iraq to come into
being, as Lebanon has proven, is a system based on communal compro-
mise and state authority that merely manages, monitors and regulates
centrifugal forces in society without stifling them’’.22
The reverberations of the Iraq crisis have been felt in almost every cor-
ner of the globe, but mostly by the countries of the Middle East. Leba-
non, being an integral part of the Arab world, was affected by the crisis
in the same way as a set of billiard balls are affected by a hit from a mov-
ing ball on a pool table. Moreover, the nature of the interaction and the
degree of interdependence existing between Iraq and its neighbouring
countries make it possible that this crisis might set off a chain of events
throughout the region. The effect of the Iraq crisis and its aftermath on
relations between Lebanon and Syria is discussed next.
108 LATIF ABUL-HUSN
political tension that preceded the assassination. The report stated clearly
that ‘‘this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr.
Hariri’’.24
The Fitzgerald fact-finding mission recommended the establishment of
an international independent investigation team with executive authority
to carry out interrogations to find out who planned, ordered and exe-
cuted the killing of Mr Hariri.25 Based on Fitzgerald’s recommendation
and approval by the Lebanese government, the Security Council, in Res-
olution 1595, established an International Independent Investigation
Commission, headed by the German prosecutor Metlev Mehlis, with the
mandate to ‘‘assist the Lebanese authorities in their investigations of all
aspects of the assassination of Hariri, to help identify perpetrators, spon-
sors, organizers and accomplices’’.26
Investigations by the Commission were conducted in Lebanon and
Syria. As a result, the chiefs of the four security services in Lebanon
were detained and charged with complicity in the planning of the assassi-
nation. The investigation in Syria has not gone that far yet. Nevertheless,
the Commission’s intermediate report on its findings pointed explicitly to
the involvement of Syrian intelligence services, together with their Leba-
nese ‘‘hosts’’, in the assassination of Hariri. It was felt throughout Leba-
non that the UN involvement in the investigation gave the process credi-
bility and reassured the Lebanese that they were not being left to their
fate.
A succession of developments followed the withdrawal of Syrian troops
from Lebanon. Free parliamentary elections were held a month later in
which 60 deputies out of 128 (46 per cent) entered parliament for the first
time. Hariri supporters, spearheaded by his son, won a majority of seats
in parliament. A new government headed by a former minister of finance
and staunch Hariri loyalist was formed. A former prime minister, Gen-
eral Michael Aoun, a dedicated foe of Syria, returned to Lebanon from
his 15-year forced exile in France and was elected to parliament. The
imprisoned leader of the Lebanese Forces militia was pardoned and re-
leased from prison. Yet these developments failed to restore law and
order in the country. On the contrary, the security situation deteriorated
dramatically. Several bomb explosions in Beirut, caused by as yet un-
known perpetrators, have killed innocent victims, including mainly anti-
Syrian spokespeople, and instilled fear in Lebanese society.
Following these developments, the international community, spear-
headed by the United States and France, pooled its resources to help
Lebanon reconstitute itself and revitalize its security and political system
without Syrian intervention, for the first time in 29 years. To some Leba-
nese politicians this change represented a switch from Syrian tutelage to
Western custody. Lebanon was drawn incrementally away from the Syr-
A LEBANESE PERSPECTIVE 111
Conclusion
The Iraq crisis changed the political landscape in the region in four differ-
ent ways. First, it brought US military might and political influence to the
heart of the Middle East. Second, it provided the United States with an
opportunity to promote and spread democracy in the region, beginning
with Iraq. Third, it aided the emergence of a new regional order in which
power and influence were redistributed among the states of the region in
a way that allowed Lebanon to opt out of Syrian domination, though at a
high cost. Fourth, Syria’s position in the power hierarchy of the Middle
East was significantly diminished, mainly owing to its opposition to the
US-led invasion of Iraq (unlike in the previous Gulf war) and its loss of
influence in Lebanon.
The high-cost US intervention in Iraq has revealed not so much US
power as its limits. Peace, stability and democracy in Iraq and beyond
have not happened yet. The dilemma facing the United States is best por-
trayed by Henry Kissinger: ‘‘what is new about the emerging world order
is that, for the first time, the United States can neither withdraw from the
world nor dominate it.’’28
Notes
1. Following the conclusion of the Gulf war in 1991, UN Security Council Resolution
687 of 3 April 1991 directed Saddam Hussein to destroy his chemical and biological
weapons and all equipment for developing nuclear capabilities, and to permit UN/
IAEA inspection teams to monitor, verify and destroy all WMD. The inspection process
was terminated in 1998. In November 2002, Iraq submitted to a more intrusive inspec-
tion regime stipulated by Security Council Resolution 1441, dated 8 November 2002,
and carried out by the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commis-
sion. A month later, Iraq submitted its report on the destruction of its WMD in a
12,000-page document. The United States rejected the report and tried to obtain from
the Security Council a fresh resolution authorizing enforcement action against Iraq.
The Security Council was unwilling to grant such authorization. The United States, to-
gether with the United Kingdom and a few other countries, launched Operation Iraqi
112 LATIF ABUL-HUSN
Freedom on 20 March 2003. It took only three weeks to topple Saddam’s regime and
occupy the country. The United States installed its own inspection team (the US Survey
Group), which consisted of 1,500 inspectors working independently from the UN/IAEA
team.
2. Jessica Mathews, ‘‘What Happened in Iraq: The Success Story of the United Nations
Inspection’’, a keynote address at the International Peace Academy Conference,
5 March 2004.
3. Dan Morgan and David B. Ottaway, ‘‘In Iraq War Scenario, Oil Is Key Issue’’, Wash-
ington Post, 15 September 2002.
4. Geoff Simons, Future Iraq: U.S. Policy in Reshaping the Middle East (London: Saqi
Books, 2003), pp. 313–317.
5. Ibid., pp. 255–267.
6. Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in
Foreign Policy (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003), p. 13.
7. David Frum and Richard Pearl, An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror (New
York: Random House, 2003), p. 235.
8. Ibid., p. 271.
9. Clyde Prestowitz, Rogue Nations: American Unilateralism and the Failure of Good
Intentions (New York: Basic Books, 2003), p. 273.
10. For a detailed analysis of the causes of failure of these missions, see Boutros-Boutros
Ghali, The Unvanquished: A U.S.-U.N. Saga (New York: Random House, 1999).
11. United Nations Secretary-General, An Agenda for Peace – Preventive Diplomacy,
Peacemaking and Peacekeeping (New York: United Nations, 1992).
12. ‘‘Searching for an Exit’’, The Age (Melbourne), 10 April 2004.
13. Noam Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival: America’s Quest for Global Dominance (New
York: Metropolitan Books, 2003), p. 142.
14. New York Times, 19 February 2003.
15. League of Arab States, Final Communiqué of the Summit Meeting, Tunisia, 16–17 May
2004.
16. Frum and Pearl, An End to Evil, p. 272.
17. United Nations Security Council Resolution 487 of 1981.
18. Bruce Russett, Grasping for the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War Order
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995), p. 86.
19. Rupert Cornwell, ‘‘U.S. Angers Allies with New Middle East Plan’’, Independent.co.uk,
28 February 2004.
20. League of Arab States, Final Communiqué.
21. Poland was an exception in that the main engine of political transformation in Poland
was the leadership of Lech Walesa and his trade union, Solidarity, combined with the
help of the Church, not civil society organizations.
22. Michael Young, ‘‘Defend Lebanon’s Consociational System’’, The Daily Star (Beirut),
30 December 2003.
23. Peter Fitzgerald, Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon Inquiring into the
Causes, Circumstances and Consequences of the Assassination of Former Prime Minister,
Rafik Hariri, 25 February–24 March 2005, p. 2.
24. Ibid., p. 20.
25. Ibid.
26. Security Council Resolution 1595, dated 7 April 2005.
27. Security Council Resolution 1559, dated 2 September 2004, calls for the ‘‘strict respect
of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity and political independence of Lebanon
under the sole and exclusive authority of the Government of Lebanon throughout Leb-
anon’’. It calls also for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon and the dis-
A LEBANESE PERSPECTIVE 113
banding and disarming of the Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias. Resolution 1595 of 7
April 2005 establishes an International Independent Investigation Commission to assist
the Lebanese authorities in their investigation of the assassination of former Prime Min-
ister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut on 14 February 2005. Resolution 1636 of 31 October 2005
endorses the Commission’s intermediate report and insists that Syria ‘‘not interfere in
Lebanese domestic affairs . . . [and] refrain from any attempt aimed at destabilizing Leb-
anon’’. This resolution was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Resolution
1644 demands that Syria respond ‘‘unambiguously’’ to the Commission’s investigation
and ‘‘implement without delay any future [relevant] request of the UN International
Independent Commission’’. It further extends the probe for an additional six months,
and authorizes the Commission to extend its technical assistance to the Lebanese au-
thorities in their investigations of terrorist acts that followed Hariri’s assassination.
The Secretary-General mandated three senior UN envoys to deal with the evolving
Lebanese–Syrian conflict: Geir Pedersen, his Personal Representative for Lebanon;
Terje Roed-Larsen, his representative for compliance with Security Council Resolution
1595; and Alvero de Soto, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East peace
process.
28. Henry Kissinger, ‘‘The New World Order’’, in Chester A. Crocker and Fen Osler
Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to
International Conflict (Washington DC: United States Institute for Peace, 1996), p. 174.
7
Iraq and world order:
A Turkish perspective
Ayla Göl
Introduction
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has become not
only a supreme power as a result of its unchallenged military, economic
and cultural dominance but also an arrogant power set upon redesigning
the world according to its own neoconservative image. The end of the
Cold War changed the tacit agreement between the two superpowers on
spheres of influence in the Balkans, Central Asia, the Caucasus and the
Middle East, which brought new structural and normative challenges
to global and regional orders. Establishing order in the post–Cold War
Middle East remains the most challenging task for the international com-
munity, which was misinformed about two issues. There were claims, on
the one hand, about the existence of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) in Iraq and, on the other, about an assumed link between the
Iraqi government and al-Qaeda. However, the overthrow of Saddam
Hussein’s regime was not based on an international norm of humanitar-
ian intervention. Even before the UN observers declared in their final
report in October 2004 that there were no WMD, many scholars had
questioned the legality and legitimacy of the war in Iraq, as David
Krieger, Ramesh Thakur and Nicholas Wheeler discuss in this volume.
The 1991 Gulf war was the first example of a new world disorder in the
Middle East, which put Iraq on the agenda of the post–Cold War era.
Developments in northern Iraq in the 1990s left Turkey as one of the
114
A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE 115
key countries in the region. It had mixed and somewhat conflicting inter-
ests and had to balance its US alignment and Middle Eastern policies.
Thus, the main arguments of this chapter are threefold: to examine to
what extent Turkey’s Middle Eastern policies converge with the emerg-
ing US-dominated world order; to explain why Ankara’s rapprochement
with Iran and Syria took shape around the Kurdish issue independently
from Washington’s regional policies; and to discuss how Turkey’s bid
to achieve European Union (EU) membership influenced its policies to-
wards the Middle East. After examining the structure of world order and
the US hegemony in relation to the ‘‘Iraq crisis’’, I explain why Turkish
and American interests diverged on the future of Kurds in northern
Iraq, the rise of Islamism and terrorism, and cooperation with Iraq’s
neighbours – Syria and Iran. I then focus on the European Union’s em-
phasis on the new unconventional security challenges as cross-border is-
sues and the importance of trans-regional cooperation between Europe
and the Middle East. Lastly I critically explore the new dimensions of
the search for world order through a transition to democracy in the
Muslim world, beginning with Iraq in the Middle East. In particular, the
legitimacy of a ‘‘so-called’’ broader Middle East initiative is questioned,
by comparing it with the Turkish experience of nation-building and the
case of Afghanistan.
When President George W. Bush declared war against Iraq as the central
front of the US war on terrorism there was no question in his mind that
Saddam Hussein had links to al-Qaeda and possessed WMD. No evi-
dence of WMD was found by the UN inspectors nor has the link between
al-Qaeda and the Baghdad regime been proven since the removal of
Saddam Hussein from power. The Bush administration dismissed the im-
portance of international legitimacy based on the UN observers’ reports
and the UN Security Council’s resolutions and acted unilaterally accord-
ing to its own interests.
From the outset there were strong anti-war campaigns warning that the
US-led occupation of Iraq would bring a long period of chronic instabil-
ity. But Washington claimed that changing Saddam Hussein’s authoritar-
ian regime would bring a transition to democracy with a ‘‘domino effect’’
in the Middle East. There was no forward planning about who the US-led
coalition would transfer power, authority and sovereignty to after remov-
ing Saddam. As Bush stated at the beginning of the war, Washington’s
primary concern was to secure Iraqi oil production against sabotage or
116 AYLA GÖL
Turkey’s relations with the Middle Eastern states have been determined
and constrained by two threat perceptions. The first challenge was the
rise of Kurdish nationalism, perceived as a threat to the Kemalist state
ideology, which aims to preserve Turkish national unity through territo-
rial integrity. The second was the growth of ‘‘irtica’’ (reactionary Islam),
which poses a threat to the secular character of the Turkish state. Sub-
sequently, when terrorist activities became the modus operandi of both
Kurdish nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism, this created an idée
fixe of a Turkish security paradox that has been shaping Turkish domes-
tic and foreign policies since the 1980s.
Iran. Many scholars argued that an independent Kurdish state was un-
likely unless there was a major disruption of the existing state system in
the region. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein radically upset the re-
gional dynamics and could have given Turkey the opportunity of inde-
pendent military intervention in Iraq in order to determine the future of
Iraqi Kurds. American politicians and the international media speculated
on this possibility, given the fact that Turkish military forces had declared
that the future establishment of a Kurdish state or federal region that in-
cluded Mosul and Kirkuk would be a casus belli.
Between 1991 and 2003, the Kurds were very close to establishing an
independent state in Iraq or, at least, an autonomous entity federated
with the rest of the country. A de facto Iraqi Kurdish state was estab-
lished when elections were held in May 1992. The Kurdistan National
Assembly (KNA) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) were
created within which the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), led by Masud
Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal Tala-
bani, represented the Kurds. This Kurdish entity was protected by the so-
called ‘‘Kurdish safe haven’’ and the ‘‘no-fly zone’’ in northern Iraq
under Operation Provide Comfort (OPC), which was intended to provide
security and humanitarian assistance to refugee camps along the Turkish
border. The safe haven was supported economically by the UN Oil-for-
Food programme until the removal of Saddam Hussein.10
Turkey has accordingly been evaluating and adjusting its foreign policy
goals since the Gulf war. In the first place, Turkey consistently opposed
the creation of an independent Kurdish state or an Iraqi federal unity.
In particular, it did not want the oil-rich cities of Mosul and Kirkuk to
be ceded to an autonomous Kurdish federal unit. According to Ankara,
an independent Kurdish state benefiting from the economic income of
these cities’ oil revenues had the potential to be a prosperous example
for Turkey’s Kurds. Secondly, if a permanent Kurdistan federal region
were created, Ankara was concerned that the rights of Turkmen should
be protected by the establishment of a Turkmen federal unit to include
the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.
Furthermore, Ankara implemented a contradictory policy that the Iraqi
Kurdish authority had to be kept strong enough to be able to prevent
activities by the PKK (Partia Karkaren Kurdistan – Kurdistan Workers’
Party) in the region while at the same time kept weak enough to prevent
the creation of an independent Kurdish state.11 Turkish military forces
did not hesitate to cross the Iraqi border and enter the no-fly zone in
1995 and 1997 in order to attack the PKK camps in northern Iraq.
Turkey also had to come to a tacit agreement with the United States
that Washington would not criticize Turkish military incursions if Ankara
permitted the continuation of Operation Northern Watch (as OPC was
120 AYLA GÖL
renamed in 1997), despite the fact that the Turkish military élite regarded
the OPC/ONW with suspicion as part of US plans to establish a Kurdish
state at the expense of Turkey’s territorial integrity.12
Finally, Ankara was also sceptical about Washington’s reluctance to
clamp down on the PKK. Despite the arrest of PKK leader Abdullah
Öcalan in February 1999, the PKK/KADEK is still perceived as a threat
to Turkish national security. The second conflict between Ankara and
Washington was a result of this different threat perception, and of the
definition of terrorist organizations and the war on terror.
United States about the Iranian nuclear programme and Syrian missile
capabilities, as well as their possession of WMD on its borders. The next
section explains how Turkey’s aim to join the European Union influ-
enced Turkish perceptions of its own role in the region. In particular,
the nature of Turkey’s relations changed from conflicting interests to co-
operation and dialogue with regional states.
Despite the high expectation in US circles and among Iraqi Kurds that
Turkey might independently intervene to occupy northern Iraq, Turkish
‘‘military intervention’’ never materialized. Turkish policy makers were
determined not to compromise the 40-year pro-EU policy with an irration-
al military adventure. Rather than using force, Turkey initiated a search
for diplomatic and peaceful solutions. The first summit of the foreign
ministers of Iraq’s neighbours and regional states was held in January
2003, and the fifth summit took place in Kuwait on 15 February 2004, in-
volving Turkish, Egyptian, Jordanian, Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti foreign
ministers. At this summit, Gül came up with a new suggestion that the
Middle Eastern states should follow the example of European unification
and that this intention should be brought to the attention of the Security
Council’s permanent members through the mediation of UN Secretary-
General Kofi Annan.21
Turkey adopted the EU stance on Iraq, which prioritizes the following
five issues: the international community has a major contribution to make
in the shaping of the future of the Iraqi people; the European Union en-
courages the United Nations to play a central role in the process restor-
ing Iraqi sovereignty; the European Union suggests that Iraq’s neigh-
bours should support stability in Iraq and the region; the European
Union reaffirms its own commitment to the political and economic recon-
struction of Iraq and welcomes the participation of international financial
institutions; and, finally, ‘‘as part of the process of regional security and
stability the EU reaffirms its commitments to bring the Israeli-Palestinian
peace process to a successful conclusion through the implementation of
the steps foreseen in the Quartet’s [the European Union, the United
States, the United Nations and Russia] roadmap, keeping within estab-
lished timelines.’’22
The Turkish, Syrian and Iranian foreign ministers reached a common
policy on the future of Iraq as an independent nation-state based on ter-
ritorial integrity and political unity rather than an ethnically or religiously
defined federal unity.23 The three states declared their commitment to a
democratic and stable Iraq on their borders.24 They also clearly echoed
the EU position that the United Nations must play a central role in trans-
A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE 125
ferring full sovereignty to the Iraqi people. Turkey prioritizes the use of
diplomacy in international organizations, such as the Organization of the
Islamic Conference (OIC) and NATO, over unilateral action. The sixth
summit of the foreign ministers of Iraq’s neighbours and regional states
took place within the framework of the thirty-first OIC meeting in Istan-
bul on 14–16 June 2004. The Iraq crisis, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict,
international terrorism and the broader Middle East plan were among
the main issues on the broader agenda of the OIC, and the Turkish pres-
ident emphasized the importance of democracy for regional development
and stability.25 Furthermore, at NATO’s Istanbul Summit on 28–29 June,
NATO members agreed on three ‘‘soft power’’ initiatives in order to
have a greater presence in the region (as Fred Tanner explains further
in Chapter 20).
According to a Turkish foreign ministry statement, Turkey’s Iraq pol-
icy is based on the idea that ‘‘the independence, territorial integrity, sov-
ereignty and national unity of Iraq’’ should be preserved through interna-
tionally recognized norms. Moreover, the determination of Iraq’s future
is up to the free will of the Iraqi people and Iraq’s natural resources
must belong to them.26 Turkish decision makers are probably using the
European Union and multilateral forums as a means to justify their
active engagement in the region without sacrificing the US partnership.
Syria and Iran seem to be in accord with these Turkish views in order
to prevent US military intervention in their countries that would further
destabilize the Middle East.
Since the US-led occupation of Iraq, current political and academic de-
bates are focused on whether or not democracy can be imposed by exter-
nal force. At the G-8 summit meeting in Georgia on 9 June 2004, George
W. Bush launched a broader Middle East initiative without actually call-
ing it that.27 This ‘‘initiative’’ aims to promote ‘‘Western-style’’ democ-
racy throughout the Middle East (including non-Arab countries such as
Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and Turkey) and North Africa, en-
courages greater NATO involvement in Iraq and proposes a resolution
to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Opposition came from President Chirac
of France, who joined the Arab world in deriding the initiative.28
Even before the initiative was launched, there were already strongly crit-
ical voices in Western and Arab countries. The initiative was seen as a
126 AYLA GÖL
torical experience from which important lessons can be drawn for Muslim
societies.
tremely concerned that federalism would give Shiites and Kurds too
much power as well as control of Iraqi oil resources, and they want to
endorse changes in the Constitution. The tensions between Islamists and
secularists and sectarian factions are the main challenges that the new
government has to resolve, notwithstanding the requirement to promote
democracy and security in the country.42 Iraq’s actual transformation to
democracy began in December 2005 and it will not be an easy process.
The following few years, if not decades, will prove how difficult it will
be, as we know from developments in Afghanistan. The developments
following the US-manoeuvred regime changes in both these countries
demonstrate that the promotion of liberal democracy and nation-building
in Islamic societies is a very complex and difficult task.
Conclusion
Acknowledgements
Notes
1. ‘‘President Bush Discusses the Iraqi Interim Government’’, White House Press Release,
1 June 2004, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/06/20040601-2.htmli (ac-
cessed 8 March 2006).
2. Justus Leicht and Peter Schwarz, ‘‘Turkish Parliament Votes down US War Plans’’,
4 March 2003, hhttp://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/mar2003/turk-m04.shtmli (accessed
8 March 2006).
3. ‘‘Erdoğan Washington Post’a yazdı: Kuzey Irak güvenliğimiz için kritik’’, Milliyet,
21 April 2003, hhttp://www.milliyet.comi.
4. The AKP won the elections in November 2002 with 34.2 per cent of the total votes and
363 of the 550 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly. The AKP became the first
non-coalition government for 15 years.
5. On 15 November 2003, bombs exploded in front of two synagogues and then two more
devastating blasts at the British Consulate and the HSBC bank buildings followed on
20 November. ‘‘Duaya Bomba’’, Hürriyet, 16 November 2003; ‘‘El Katil’’, Hürriyet,
21 November 2003.
6. ‘‘Al-Qaida Statement: The Cars of Death Will Not Stop’’, Guardian, 21 November 2003,
p. 4.
7. ‘‘Başbuğ: ABD PKK’ya karşı somut adım atmalı’’, NTVMSNBC, 19 March 2004,
hhttp://www.ntvmsnbc.comi.
8. Hasan Pulur, ‘‘Törpülenmiş Laiklik’’, Milliyet, 8 April 2004.
9. Ayla Göl, ‘‘The Politics of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline: Turkish Foreign Policy to-
wards the Caucasus’’, paper presented at the Association for the Study of Nationalities
9th Annual World Convention, Columbia University, New York, 15–17 April 2004.
10. The creation of no-fly zones, whereby Iraqi planes were not allowed to fly north of the
36th parallel or south of the 32nd parallel, relied on UN Security Council Resolution
688 of 1991. The Oil-for-Food programme was established by US-proposed Resolution
986 in 1997.
11. The PKK was established in 1974 and launched its first terrorist attack in 1984. The
party changed its name to the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK)
in order to disassociate itself from PKK’s terrorist stance. In November 2003, KADEK
was replaced by the Kurdistan People’s Congress (Kontra-Gel) to indicate its new dem-
ocratic character and declared ceasefire. However, Turkish politicians and the media
still refer to this organization as the PKK or the PKK/KADEK.
132 AYLA GÖL
12. Kemal Kirişçi, ‘‘Turkey and the Muslim Middle East’’, in Alan Makovsky and Sabri
Sayari, eds, Turkey’s New World: Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy (Wash-
ington DC: Brookings Institution, 2000), p. 45.
13. ‘‘What Is Turkey’s Hizbullah?’’, A Human Rights Watch Backgrounder, 16 February
2000, hhttp://hrw.org/english/docs/2000/02/16/turkey3057.htmi (accessed 2 March 2006);
see also Turkey: Human Rights Watch World Report 2000, hhttp://www.hrw.org/wr2k/i
(accessed 8 March 2006).
14. ‘‘Istanbul Police in Islamist Shoot-out’’, 18 January 2000, hhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/
world/europe/607729.stm> (accessed 8 March 2006).
15. Barçın Yınanç and Seval Çevikcan, ‘‘Harrazi eli boş geldi’’, Milliyet, 10 October 1998.
16. Olivier Roy, ‘‘Turkey – A World Apart, or Europe’s New Frontier?’’ in Olivier Roy,
ed., Turkey Today: A European Country? (London: Anthem Press, 2005), p. 24.
17. Ian O. Lesser, ‘‘Beyond ‘Bridge or Barrier’: Turkey’s Evolving Security Relations with
the West’’, in Makovsky and Sayari, eds, Turkey’s New World, p. 211.
18. ‘‘Hatemi’den güvence: Düşmanlarınız topraklarımızı kullanamaz’’, Milliyet, 11 January
2004; and ‘‘Türkiye-Suriye ilişkisi tırmansı̧ta’’, NTVMSNBC, 6 January 2004.
19. ‘‘Turkey and the Middle East: An Interview with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gül’’, Insight Turkey, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2004), p. 29.
20. ‘‘Iraq–EU Relations: A Strategy for the Medium Term’’, European Commission Press
Releases, IP/04/723, 9 June 2004, hhttp://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.
do?reference=IP/04/723&format=HTML&aged=0&language=en&guiLanguage=eni
(accessed 2 March 2006).
21. ‘‘Ortadoğu Birliği için ilk adım atıldı’’, Milliyet, 16 February 2004.
22. ‘‘Text: EU Declaration on Iraq’’, Guardian, 17 April 2003.
23. ‘‘Turkey and the Middle East: An Interview with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gül’’, p. 26.
24. ‘‘Ankara-Şam ilişkilerinde yeni dönem’’, NTVMSNBC, 7 January 2004.
25. ‘‘Sezer: Demokratikleşin’’, Milliyet, 15 June 2004.
26. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘‘Outline: Turkey’s Iraq Policy’’, 21 March 2003,
hhttp://www.iraqwatch.org/government/Turkey/turkey-mfa-iraqpolicy-032103.htmi (ac-
cessed 2 March 2006).
27. ‘‘Bush: Our Middle East Mission Has Just Begun’’, Guardian, 10 June 2004, p. 1.
28. L. Elliot and D. Teather, ‘‘Chirac Derides Push for Democracy’’, Guardian, 10 June
2004, p. 1.
29. ‘‘Turkey and the Middle East: An Interview with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gül’’, p. 25.
30. Milliyet, 19 February 2004.
31. ‘‘Turkey and the Middle East: An Interview with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gül’’, p. 29.
32. Ernest Gellner, Muslim Society (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 68.
33. Ayla Göl, ‘‘The Place of Foreign Policy in the Transition to Modernity: Turkish Policy
towards the South Caucasus, 1918–1920’’, PhD thesis, University of London, London
School of Economics and Political Science, 2000, pp. 269–271.
34. Anatol Lieven, ‘‘Don’t Forget Afghanistan’’, Foreign Policy, No. 137 (July/Aug 2003),
p. 54.
35. Charles V. Pena, ‘‘Iraq: The Wrong War’’, Insight Turkey, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2004), p. 31.
36. ‘‘Coalition Provisional Authority, Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for the
Transitional Period’’, 8 March 2004, hhttp://www.cpa-iraq.orgi.
37. Security Council Resolution 1546 on the situation between Iraq and Kuwait, UN Doc.
S/RES/1546 (2004), 8 June 2004, pp. 1–2, hhttp://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/
N04/381/16/PDF/N0438116.pdf?OpenElementi (accessed 2 March 2006).
A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE 133
38. ‘‘23 Dead as Shia and Sunni Militia Clash after Raid to Free Hostage’’, Guardian,
28 October 2005.
39. Jonathan Steele, ‘‘Iraqi Constitution Yes Vote Approved by UN’’, Guardian, 26 Octo-
ber 2005.
40. Ewen MacAskill, ‘‘Sunnis Form Alliance to Fight Election’’, Guardian, 27 October
2005.
41. ‘‘Iraqi Shias Win Election Victory’’, BBC News, 21 January 2006, hhttp://news.bbc.co.
uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4630518.stmi (accessed 8 March 2006).
42. Michael Gregory, ‘‘Shi’ite Division May Hamstring Iraq Prime Minister’’, Reuters,
16 February 2006, hhttp://today.reuters.co.uki.
8
Iran’s assessment of the
Iraq crisis and the post-9/11
international order
Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Introduction
At least since the early 1970s Iran has been regarded as an important re-
gional player; prior to that it had managed to accumulate considerable
strategic value as a weighty pawn in the Cold War chessboard that
straddled much of Asia and Europe. But it was the 1979 Islamic revolu-
tion that made Iran stand out on the international scene. After the over-
throw of the Shah by a coalition of Islamist, liberal and radical forces,
Iran emerged as a defiant, fiercely independent, proactively religious,
and non-aligned power. Since then, as James Piscatori has noted, there
has rarely been a period that ‘‘Iran escaped the attention of the world’s
foreign offices, press, and academic experts on the Middle East and Is-
lam’’.1 Dramatic developments in Iran and notable adjustments to its in-
ternational relations since the late 1980s and the end of the bipolar world
have ensured that Iran remains the country to watch and, for other actors
in the international system, a growing force to reckon with. However,
despite its revolutionary zeal and a reputation for non-conformity and
defiance since the revolution, it can be argued that revolutionary Iran
has always been a ‘‘rational actor’’ in the classic realist mould. Even
some of its excesses can be seen as calculated risks or opportunist re-
sponses to difficult situations. Looking back at the post-Khomeini era,
one cannot help but be struck by how ‘‘normal’’, largely non-aggressive
and pragmatic Iran’s foreign policy has been since 1989. The roots of
134
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 135
region’s premier military power and aimed to become the main pillar of
the Western security system in the Middle East – to resume, as the Shah
himself put it, Iran’s ‘‘historic responsibilities’’.5
Since 1979, where geopolitics has mattered, Iran has added a religious
dimension to its projection of power. Over time, this new factor has
formed an extra layer over the deeply felt territorial nationalism of the
state. Since the revolution, Islamic issues have emerged to influence
Iran’s regional profile and its policies towards many of its neighbours.
Iran’s post-revolution posture has also been affected by what could be
called the geopolitics of Islam. In the first instance, Tehran’s Messianic
Shiism of the early 1980s posed a direct challenge to the regional status
quo and the political integrity of Iran’s Arab neighbours. In making ex-
plicit its demand to speak in the name of Islam, Tehran’s revolutionary
leaders caused noticeable tensions in the country’s relations with Saudi
Arabia and other influential Islamic actors in the Muslim world. Today,
it is again the geopolitics of Islam that is affecting Iran’s world view and
its relations with its neighbours.
At the same time, Iran’s stand vis-à-vis the Soviet occupation of Af-
ghanistan in the 1980s and Moscow’s treatment of its own Muslim popu-
lation added a religious dimension to Iranian–Soviet relations during the
Cold War. Additionally, implicit and explicit support for the growing
number of Islamist movements in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the
Middle East became a fixture of Iranian foreign policy in its inter-state
and sub-state interactions.
In the 1990s, despite a more integrationist and non-ideological foreign
policy, Tehran tried to keep pace with the politicized Islamic groups
in the Arab world and was active in showing support for Hezbollah in
Lebanon, the Front Islamique du Salut (FIS) in Algeria, the Turabi
regime in Sudan, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, the Muslim
Brotherhood in Jordan, the al-Nahda party in Tunisia, and the Jihad
group in Egypt. Further afield, Tehran has been quite content to allow
itself to be portrayed as a supporter of Islamist movements of all denomi-
nations (for example, the Islamic MORO movement in the Philippines in
the 1980s and the Bosnian Muslims in the 1990s). One can deduce from
Tehran’s behaviour that the overt use of Islam, or at least of Islamic sym-
bols, remains a feature of the country’s conception of its role. Islam’s
place in Tehran’s formulation of policy and strategic aims has caused se-
rious rifts in – and continues to complicate – its relations with a number
of the Sunni-dominated, largely secular-led, Arab states around it. Iran’s
Islamic revolution and the Iranian leadership’s call for Islamic uprisings
may have found sympathetic ears in many Arab and Muslim societies
in the 1980s, but this call also reinforced Arab élite suspicions of Iranian
intentions and encouraged their cautious policies towards Tehran. The
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 137
‘‘blockage’’ really only began clearing towards the end of the 1980s,
thanks to several developments: the end of the Iran–Iraq war, the rise of
a more pragmatic leadership in Iran, the growing importance of oil poli-
tics, the Kuwait crisis, and Iran’s post–Cold War bridge-building regional
strategy. Nonetheless, Iran retains a strong Islamic dimension in its exter-
nal profile. However, it is fully aware of its fairly small international Shi-
ite base compared with the majority Sunnis who populate many of the
Arab and non-Arab states in Asia and North Africa. As such, Tehran
treads carefully in inter-Islamic disputes. Although it branded the Tali-
ban as ‘‘barbaric’’, for example, it did not openly attack Pakistan, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the Taliban’s key supporters.
Moreover, as the only Muslim country dominated and ruled by the Shiite
minority sect of Islam, Iran plays on the bigger, pan-Islamic issues in its
inter-Islamic relations.
The end of the Cold War has brought to the fore the importance of the
‘‘three Gs’’ in Iran’s foreign relations: geopolitics, geostrategic instabil-
ities, and globalization. With over a decade of the post–Cold War order
behind us, Iran is still trying to come to terms with the systemic changes
that took place between 1989 and 1991, and in this endeavour is strug-
gling to find its natural place in the increasingly interdependent and glo-
balized international system. For Iran, the 1990s ushered in a new and
highly unpredictable era. Since the late 1980s, Tehran has been com-
pelled to function as much as possible within the new international sys-
tem, which witnessed not only the end of the Cold War and the demise
of the Soviet superpower, but also the emergence of the United States
as the undisputed extra-regional power in the Middle East.6 With ethnic
resurgence becoming the order of the day in the post–Cold War interna-
tional situation and with nationalist movements successfully evolving
from insurgencies to territorial states, concern about Iran’s territorial in-
tegrity has also been heightened. Fear that secessionist movements in
Iran and on its borders could be used by outside powers to destabilize
the country and the regime has struck a chord with Iranian Islamists and
nationalists alike.
At least two schools of thought about the new international system
have prevailed in Iran.7 One school welcomes the changes that have oc-
curred in the international system since 1989. Proponents of the ‘‘posi-
tive’’ school hold that, with the demise of the Soviet Union and with
greater prospects for manoeuvrability as a result of the ending of the
Cold War and the strategic competition between Moscow and Washing-
138 ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
ton in regions such as the Middle East, Iran could emerge as a more in-
dependent and powerful regional power. In the absence of superpower
pressures, Tehran would be better placed to create a new regional order
in which Iran would hold the balance of power. In this situation, power
derived from a combination of the Islamic revolution, a sound and prag-
matic foreign policy and the country’s hydrocarbon wealth could enhance
Tehran’s ability to influence regional developments more fully and di-
rectly. Tehran should therefore grasp the nettle and adopt a proactive
strategy in the Middle East and in the Asian territories of the former
Soviet Union. To do this successfully, Tehran would need to deepen its
existing regional alliances and create new ones. Proponents of this school
also argue that continuing competition between the United States, the
European Union and Japan over the resources of the Persian Gulf,
Central Asia and Azerbaijan will inevitably generate new rivalries at the
international level, which, with careful planning, Tehran will be able to
exploit at the regional level. In other words, they believe that, although
the old ‘‘negative balance’’ arguments may no longer apply, continuing
rivalries at the international level will, in the medium term, allow Iran to
apply the same model to the new situation, securing independence of
action and enhancing its room for manoeuvre.
The second school views the end of the Cold War and the demise of
the USSR with deep anxiety. The ‘‘negative’’ school worries that Iran
will no longer be able to rely on the tried and tested strategy of the neg-
ative balance between Washington and Moscow, fearing that Iran is be-
ing sidelined. With the superpower competition in effect now over, Iran
has become less valuable strategically to the superpowers. It no longer
has any value to the West in terms of ‘‘containing’’ the Soviet threat to
vital Western interests in the Middle East. Moreover, because there
appear to be no external checks on US power in the Middle East, the
United States will inevitably increase its pressure on regional states such
as Iran that manage to function outside of its sphere of influence, and
perhaps on those with the potential to undermine its vital interests in
the Persian Gulf sub-region and the rest of the Middle East (particularly
in the Arab–Israeli arena). Even in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the
proponents of this school argue, Washington is bent on ‘‘freezing’’ Iran
out. Elements in this school also maintain that it is wrong to assume
that, in the new world order, the hydrocarbon needs of the Western
countries will lead to competition over control of these resources. Far
from competing for control, the West will probably unite to prevent the
monopolization of these resources by any local power unfriendly to the
West.
So, if we are to find a general foreign policy strategy for Tehran in the
post–Cold War era, it would have to be based around the notion of ‘‘both
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 139
stating that ‘‘Tehran’s citizens express their deep hatred of this ominous
and inhuman move, strongly condemn the culprits and express their sym-
pathy with New Yorkers’’.17 Reformist parliamentarian Ahmad Burqani
became the first official to visit the US Interest Section at the Swiss Em-
bassy in Tehran on the 17th to sign the book of condolences.
To explain the contrast between the two levels of reaction requires us
to focus on the troubled relationship between Tehran and Washington
since 1979 and the Iranian government’s constant fears of active US op-
position to the Islamic regime. Over the years these fears have cemented
and the two sides stand far apart from each other, despite sharing many
strategic concerns such as instability in Afghanistan and Iraq, al-Qaeda
terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and the spread of radical Islam in Central
Asia. Today, the two see each other as regional rivals bent on compro-
mising the other’s standing.
The Iranian people, by contrast, view the United States as an imposing
power that could be used as a partner of reform. There is much affection
for US political and social values in Iran, and the United States is re-
spected for its ability to confront challenges head on. But, having said
that, Iranians also have fears about US action and its ability to destabilize
the geopolitical situation on Iran’s doorstep. Moreover, being largely na-
tionalist in outlook, the people resent any US action that seeks to ‘‘con-
tain’’ Iran or to trim its regional influence. What had been a love–hate
relationship for too long was complicated by 9/11. Although the terror
attacks struck a chord with the humanity of Iranians at all levels, they
failed to ignite a willingness in either Iran or the United States to make
a fresh start. Indeed, the ‘‘axis of evil’’ State of the Union address by
President Bush in January 2002 did much to undo the goodwill generated
by the tragedy of 9/11 and helped to convince Tehran that the United
States intended to capitalize on 9/11 to target Iran, Iraq and North Korea
as the three rogue states to be countered. From the moment (in the sum-
mer of 2002) that regime change in Iraq emerged as a major US foreign
policy objective, Tehran began to see itself in a short queue of regimes to
be targeted by Washington. The start of the war against the Ba’athist re-
gime in Iraq in March 2003 was the signal to Tehran that the containment
strategy of the Clinton era had now given way to active opposition to two
northern Gulf neighbours by the Bush administration.
In sum, Washington had set itself the military aim in the 1990s of iso-
lating Iraq, with the strategic option of overthrowing the Ba’athist re-
gime. But it took a new Republican White House and the events of 11
September 2001 finally to push the United States towards the adoption
of the military option. In normal circumstances Iran would have wel-
comed any effort to remove the Iraqi regime, but Tehran was unprepared
to lend any direct support to the United States’ effort. The reason was
142 ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
simple and understandable: Iran itself was in the containment zone with
Iraq. Why should it strengthen the isolation of Iraq when that isolation
squeezed Iran as well? As dual containment faded away with the depar-
ture of the Clinton administration, Tehran had hoped that a better
working relationship could be established with the new Republican
White House. Despite some evidence of flexibility on both sides, how-
ever, Iran’s anxiety was again heightened in 2002, when it found itself
portrayed by a new US president as Iraq’s bedfellow, this time in a
new ‘‘axis of evil’’.18 The difference in emphasis was a significant one.
Whereas the containment policy had sought to isolate Tehran and curtail
its regional influence, the new ‘‘axis’’ doctrine more directly targeted spe-
cific ruling regimes as ‘‘evil’’ powers and therefore, Iran calculated, po-
tentially subjected the leadership to direct US pressure.
With the Taliban removed from Afghanistan and Iran’s northern bor-
ders relatively quiet, Iraq would naturally have emerged as the most im-
mediate security concern for Tehran. In the run-up to the war, Tehran
seemed to consider it prudent to keep all its options open and follow a
unilateralist policy on Iraq, declaring its policy to be ‘‘active neutrality’’.
It is interesting that the Iranian foreign minister summarized Tehran’s
position to the Iranian parliament as ‘‘neutral but not indifferent’’.
The new Persian year of 1382 started on 21 March 2003 with two over-
whelming pressures influencing every aspect of decision-making in Iran.
The first pressure was a product of the bruising political battles at home,
which had over the previous year acquired a ‘‘civilizational’’ dimension
in terms of a growing clash of values and political outlook between the
country’s two main political factions. The reformist camp’s disenchant-
ment with the conservative establishment had increasingly manifested
itself in their more daring, and sometimes rather far-fetched, demands
for faster introduction of reforms in the economy and an overhaul of the
constitution and the national institutions of power so as to transfer the
locus of decision-making to the elected officers of the republic. As war
clouds gathered over the Persian Gulf in late winter 2003, the battle be-
tween Iran’s main two factions was raging in the corridors of power in the
Majlis (parliament) and the various ministries and between the executive
branch and its supportive Majlis allies and the 12-man Council of Guard-
ians (CG). The Council of Guardians was entrusted by the constitution
with the vetting of candidates for political office, and of every piece of
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 143
legislation for compatibility with Islamic law and values, and of course
with the Iranian constitution itself. In Iranian year 1381, the CG had al-
ready refused to approve several pieces of important legislation from the
Majlis, including two pieces legislation proposed by President Khatami
that were designed to increase the authority of the president. The Majlis
had already passed these and was pressuring the CG to approve them
when the domestic political wrangling was overshadowed by concerns
about Iraq and the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom on the eve of the
Persian new year.
The Iraq war proved to be a mixed blessing for Tehran.19 Although
the Coalition’s action to unseat the Iraqi dictator was effectively remov-
ing a deep and painful thorn from the side of Iran, Tehran was nonethe-
less disturbed to find the United States a powerful resident force in both
Afghanistan and Iraq. Furthermore, the liberation of the Iraqi Shiites
would inevitably directly affect the policy cleavages in Iran’s own unique
Islamic political system. Najaf’s traditional opposition to the mixing of
religion and politics was by February 2004 also providing considerable
intellectual support for those forces in the Iranian power structure who
now openly questioned the prudence of religious-political authority being
monopolized in the hands of the Faqih (the ‘‘Leader’’, the just jurist) and
a small group of his trusted allies in the CG, the judiciary and the security
forces, and the Expediency Council headed by the powerful figure of
the two-term former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani. One of the clerical
members of the CG, Ayatollah Momen, had effectively closed the door
on the reformist camp, which had been hoping to compete in the Febru-
ary 2004 parliamentary elections, by announcing in September 2003 that
none of the signatories of a highly critical letter to Ayatollah Khamenei
(the Leader of the Islamic Republic), complaining about the regime’s re-
pressive tendencies, would be allowed to enter the race for the Seventh
Majlis elections. The signatories of the letter were all reformists, many
of them prominent members of the pro-Khatami camp. In the event,
over 2,500 hopefuls were barred by the CG in January 2004 from stand-
ing as parliamentary candidates, which effectively and emphatically tilted
the balance in favour of the conservative camp. Thus, the conservatives
were able to secure a substantial majority of over 160 seats out of 290
in the Seventh Majlis. Their number in the Sixth Majlis had been fewer
than 60.
States). Tehran’s more immediate concerns lay not with Iraq, therefore,
but with Washington’s intentions toward the Islamic Republic itself. The
view has persisted in Tehran – as indeed it has in Damascus, Riyadh and
even Cairo – that Iran is the next target on the US hit list. Accordingly,
going by past performance, it is to be expected that Tehran would be
fully preparing itself for the possible outbreak of hostilities either with
the United States itself or with its designated allies in the region.
From the perspective that Iran is next, Tehran sensibly regarded Iraq
as its first line of defence and thus looked for ways of preventing the
United States from finding the time or opportunity to secure decisive
control of it. One strategy entailed keeping Washington fully occupied
in Iraq by flexing Tehran’s muscles through Iraq’s large Shiite constitu-
ency. Indeed, since late March 2003 Tehran has been an active player in
the shaping of the Iraqi Shiite debate and its policy alternatives with re-
gard to the election of a sovereign Iraqi government in 2005.20 This has
proved to be a risky strategy for Tehran to follow, however, for three
main reasons.
First, any obvious exercise of influence in Iraq made it easy for Wash-
ington to accuse Iran of meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs and to expose
it to even more US pressure. Second, even if Iran pursued this course,
Iraq’s diverse Shiite population would not necessarily listen to it. Indeed,
Iraq’s Shiites form many communities and speak with several, often com-
peting, voices – sometimes tribal, other times religious. To many Iraqi
Shiites, Najaf, in Iraq, is the seat of Shia learning (and power) – not
Qum, in Iran. At the same time, however, while Saddam Hussein was
busy dismantling the Shiite seat of learning in Iraq, he was in practice
strengthening the Iranian Shiite élite and the place of Qum as the guard-
ian of the Shiite world. Indeed, as many Iraqi Shiite leaders actually took
refuge in Iran it was possible for Iranians to claim that Ayatollah Kho-
meini’s doctrine of political Islam was dominant in Shia Islam and not
the traditional ‘‘quietist’’ school long advocated in Najaf, which firmly
believed in a clear separation between politics and religion and between
religious and political authority. It can be argued that this pendulum may
have begun to swing towards Najaf (and Karbala) again since the fall of
Baghdad. With Iraq free of direct political control by the United States
since June 2004, there is every chance that this process will accelerate,
slowly ‘‘marginalizing’’ Qum. Furthermore, having just shaken off the
shackles of Saddam’s regime, the Iraqi Shiite community is clearly unwill-
ing to take kindly to Iranian dictates. An indiscrete Iranian attempt to
assert authority in Shiite Iraq, therefore, could easily cause both Tehran
and Qum much loss of prestige as well as influence in Shiite communities
in the wider Arab world, suffering a backlash from the very forces it aims
to rally.
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 145
Finally, and perhaps most important of all, the liberation of the Iraqi
Shiites is likely to further deepen the policy and doctrinal cleavages in
Iran’s own unique Islamic political system. In a country where both
influence and political power are derived from religion and the religious
hierarchy, where Tehran and Qum stand united only through the mainte-
nance of the Velayat-e Faqih system (rule through a clerical system of
jurisprudence in which a senior cleric acts as the spiritual leader of the
Islamic state), a new and powerful source of religious authority beyond
Tehran’s control, in Grand Ayatollah Sistani for example, could act as a
lightning rod, seriously testing the doctrinal basis of a regime founded on
a fairly narrow interpretation of Shiite thought. The rise of Najaf, there-
fore, will not only challenge Qum and give Arab Shiites a bigger say in
Shia affairs (from Lebanon to Yemen in the Arab world, and from
Azerbaijan to India in the non-Arab Shiite communities), but also raise
considerable intellectual support for those forces in the Iranian power
structure who now openly question the prudence of religious-political au-
thority centralized in the hands of the Faqih (the ‘‘Leader’’, the just ju-
rist) and a small group of his trusted allies in the Guardian Council, the
judiciary and the security forces, and the Expediency Council.
Saddam’s fall has thus directly affected factional rivalries in Iran. Some
elements in Iran have pointed to US behaviour in Iraq – the imposition
of a US political model on a Muslim state, the establishment of military
bases and the control of Iraq’s oil wealth – as well as the expansion of
military facilities in the small Gulf Arab states of Bahrain and Qatar and
the perceived encirclement of Iran through an elaborate network of alli-
ances as justification for encouraging some Iraqi Shiite forces to assist
Tehran in extending its power in Iraq by infiltrating the emerging post-
Ba’athist polity. Tehran does have several potentially powerful allies
among Iraqi Shiites, notably al-Hakim’s Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the well-established Islamist al-Da’wah
Party, both of which are armed and have an influential political role in
the new domestic balance of forces in Iraq. It should also be noted that
Tehran has been heavily engaged in providing military training for SCIRI
as well as the well-established Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the al-
Da’wah Party. An interesting possibility is that continuing Iranian con-
tacts with SCIRI could have a reverse effect on the Iranian élite and
help in bringing Iraqi Shiite influences into Iran and encourage fresh
thinking on Shiite issues, thereby endangering the semi-unity of the reli-
gious establishment in Iran over matters of state (the future role of the
Faqih, the future role of the clergy in the day-to-day running of the coun-
try, the curtailment of the Faqih’s constitutional powers, relations with
the United States) and national political issues (the distribution of power
between the three branches, social and political reforms, press freedom,
146 ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
Inter-Shia politics
foreign policy over Iraq? Only careful planning by Tehran can offer it a
way out of this complex matrix, but I suspect that that can happen only if
Tehran is finally able to develop a mutually beneficial relationship with
Baghdad’s new rulers, as well as with Iraq’s modern ‘‘political agent’’,
the United States. Although the former may already be on the cards, the
latter will certainly have to await the outcome of the presidential races in
both the United States and Iran.
On another front, the political voice of Iraq’s Shiite communities has
mobilized a violent backlash among Salafis. Salafis despise Shiites as
much as they hate the United States. Many see the United States’ inter-
vention in Iraq as part of a bigger conspiracy to promote the ‘‘heretical’’
Shiites against the larger Sunni Arab states and communities as a way of
strengthening its control of Arab Muslim lands and resources. The Iraq
war, therefore, has changed the character of political Islam itself and,
very broadly speaking, has separated it into the Salafi/al-Qaeda and Shi-
ite camps. The war, furthermore, may well have unleashed much wider
and deeper inter-communal strife in the Muslim world between the ma-
jority Sunnis and the minority Shiites. The ugly manifestations of this di-
vision have already been in evidence in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India
but, with Iraqi Shiites now free to enter the fray, the front-line of this
struggle will have widened and deepened to encompass the Levant and
South and West Asia, locations in which the West has many vital inter-
ests to protect.
Although political Islam will remain a force to be reckoned with in the
next generation, it will increasingly become a divided force (between its
Salafi and Shiite varieties) and will, as a consequence, turn on itself as
frequently as it targets the West.
two major camps, around which gather numerous other groups and influ-
ential personalities, often quote the founder of the Islamic Republic,
Ayatollah Khomeini, in support of their own position, which further con-
fuses the picture, or they try and chart their own strategies for ascen-
dancy in the power struggle at home in terms of Ayatollah Khomeini’s
deeds at times of crisis. All the while the factions are using foreign policy
as a tactical weapon for warfare at home, and this is where the Iraq factor
comes in.
The invitation in February 2004 by a group of Iranian political digni-
taries to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani of Najaf to intervene in his home
land’s parliamentary electoral process is indicative of the evolving com-
plexity of the Qum–Tehran–Najaf triangle. In their letter, the 400 signa-
tories requested that Ayatollah Sistani express a view on the ‘‘massacre
of democracy and the transformation of [the 2004] parliamentary elec-
tions into a mere stage play’’. They further state:
‘‘We have followed with appreciation your courageous positions in calling for the
holding of free, fair, and direct elections in Iraq, where the population did not
have, until the fall of the Ba’ath regime, the right to own a shortwave radio.
That is, holding free elections that can escape foreign influence is a difficult mat-
ter if not an impossible one. Nevertheless, your Excellency is insisting that the
first and last word in the matter of choosing rulers and representatives belongs
to the Iraqi people. How wonderful it would be if your Excellency would express
your opinion regarding the farce that some in your native land of Iran are at-
tempting to impose on its people, who are wide awake, under the rubric of ‘‘elec-
tions’’. Najaf has always been a support for freedom lovers in Iran . . . Without
their famous fatwa, the people would not have been able to bring down the tyrant
Muhammad Ali shah [in the 1905 constitutional revolution].24
the constraints slowly but surely being imposed on its orbit of influence.
In Afghanistan, for example, it is delighted to see the back of the Tali-
ban, but it is no longer a direct pillar of stability there. It should be re-
called that, during the dark years of Taliban rule, Iran steadfastly sup-
ported the Northern Alliance, which in the end emerged as the military
spearhead of the anti-Taliban campaign in that country. Without Iranian
support in the 1990s, the United States and the United Nations would not
have had the option of using a local force against the Taliban and al-
Qaeda. Yet Tehran feels exposed to developments in Afghanistan and
worries that the US presence there could undermine Iran’s deep-rooted
influence in that largely Persian-speaking country. Weakness in Afghani-
stan has a direct bearing on Iran’s relations with Central Asia too, in
particular with its poorest and only Persian-speaking country, Tajikistan.
US military encirclement, from Tehran’s perspective, is being under-
pinned with subtle barriers being erected between Iran and its traditional
spheres of cultural influence in West Asia. It should not be surprising
then to see a siege mentality taking root there.
In Iraq, Iran is being portrayed as part of the post-Saddam problem
rather than as the solution it had hoped to be. Having borne the brunt
of Saddam’s brutality in an eight-year war with his regime, having pro-
vided shelter for well over 500,000 Iraqi refugees, having followed the
UN line on Iraq since 1990, having not meddled in Iraqi domestic politics
for all this time, it is less than satisfying to the Iranians now to be cast as
the chief villain in Iraq. But Iran’s concerns about post-Saddam Iraq are
far greater than addressing an image problem. Broadly speaking, Iran’s
issues in Iraq can be divided into two groups: internal Iraqi politics; and
the impact of Iraq’s future foreign, security and economic policies on Iran
and the rest of the Persian Gulf. With regard to the former, three issues
are of importance: the future character of the state of Iraq, the role of the
Shiite forces there, and the impact of political developments in Iraq on
Iran itself. Although the prospect of the return of the monarchy remains
rather dim, the need for Tehran to define a relationship with a secular-
leaning republican or monarchical ruling regime in Iraq is unlikely to dis-
appear any time soon.
If, however, Iraq remains an Arab republic, then Iran should expect
that the Shiites will be given a seat at the centre of power in the country.
But which Shiite groups are in a position to negotiate a deal with the
United States and the other Iraqi parties, and which ones should Iran
promote in the context of its wider concerns there? For example, will
the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which was founded
in Iran in 1980, continue to present a credible force for Tehran to rely
upon? If SCIRI fails to become a major force in the new Iraq, should
Tehran abandon its own child and seek other alliances with the multitude
150 ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
issues that it needs to discuss with any future Iraqi government. Its list
of concerns includes: a final agreement on a border treaty with Iraq,
war reparations (Iran is claiming some US$100 billion from Iraq), the
settlement of the PoW issue, the release of several Iranian officials and
a diplomat who were kidnapped in Iraq in 2004, and the future of the
anti-Tehran Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization based in Iraq. Iraq, on the
other hand, wants its 100þ military aircraft returned, it wants to manage
the border so that insurgents cannot enter the country from Iran, and it
wants Iran to stop using geography as a lever in its relations with Iraq.
Baghdad is also loathe to see its relations with its Arab neighbours
dictated by the inter-Shia debates or by its relations with Iran.
Iraq’s external policies will also affect Iranian security thinking. A first
concern is whether Baghdad will become a future ally of the United
States in the region, open ties with Israel and act as Washington’s strate-
gic partner in the region. The US–Iraqi partnership could in fact re-
semble the Iranian–US partnership of old during the Pahlavi era. A stable
Iraq could act as a security guarantor of Western interests in the Persian
Gulf as well as the wider Middle East. Iraq’s oil could underpin the rela-
tionship and enable Baghdad to build a strong, US-supplied military ma-
chine that could, in conjunction with the United States’ other Gulf Arab
security partners, resurrect the old ‘‘twin pillars’’ security umbrella first
introduced by President Richard Nixon in the 1970s. Iran would then
find itself on the margins of an imposed security structure in a region
that it regards to be of vital importance to its prosperity and survival.
Secondly, Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbours are busy assessing the
long-term geo-economic consequences of oil-laden Iraq returning to the
market (and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries –
OPEC) as a big producer and no longer constrained by quota restrictions
and political obligations towards its neighbours. Assuming that its oil out-
put can stabilize, Iraq’s unbridled export of oil in the next decade could
bring havoc to a finely balanced and carefully managed international oil
market. Iran will stand to lose if Iraqi action suppresses the price; Iran’s
influence in the market will also be dealt a blow if Iraq emerges as one of
OPEC’s primary producers. Once its production capacity is enhanced,
with its massive reserves it could easily compete with Saudi Arabia on
price and replace Iran as OPEC’s other main producer. Iran’s political
vulnerabilities with regard to Iraq will then be multiplied to include the
oil factor in their bilateral equation.
hanced in geopolitical terms, the very fact that it has emerged as a big
player also exposes it to greater external pressures and, in particular,
much US scrutiny. The post-9/11 order, therefore, has been both good
and problematic for the Islamic Republic. Enemies on its two longest
land borders have been destroyed since 9/11, but at the same time the
US military and political presence in West Asia has increased exponen-
tially. Even fears about Iraq’s WMD capabilities were reduced to dust in
the course of the 2003 war, but Tehran’s own activities in the nuclear
field have come under much greater international attention since then.
Although Iran finds itself as an ally of the West in the anti-Salafi Islam
struggle, it remains on the United States’ list of terrorist states by virtue
of its close association with the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon and
its support for Palestinian groups.
It is in the context of Iran’s complex position in the 9/11 international
order that Iranian national security debates and its various military and
civilian nuclear programmes crystallize.
[had] already started’’. The fuel would come from the brand-new Ura-
nium Conversion Facility built in the industrial city of Isfahan. Mr Aqa-
zadeh added that the Isfahan plant was to be complemented with another
facility for producing uranium fuel casings. International concerns about
Iran’s nuclear ambitions were further heightened by these announce-
ments, particularly as only a day earlier Tehran had announced that it
had successfully extracted uranium and was planning to process the spent
fuel from its nuclear facilities within the country. The Iranian president
himself appeared on national television on the anniversary of Iran’s
Islamic revolution in February to congratulate his countrymen on their
nuclear achievements, enumerating their research successes and then
underlining the statements already made by the head of the Iranian
atomic energy programme.
The IAEA, of course, which was already under severe pressure for its
failures in Iraq and North Korea, immediately entered the debate. Of
further concern to the IAEA at this time were the sites being developed
in the cities of Natanz and Arak, of whose existence the agency had first
learnt through intelligence sources and not the Iranian authorities them-
selves. Iran’s late notification of the two sites to the IAEA, though legal
under the NPT terms, reached the Vienna-based organization only in
September 2002, a month after an opposition group had published details
of the facilities. The revelations showed that the underground site near
Natanz would house Iran’s main gas centrifuge plant for enriching ura-
nium for use in reactors, while the Arak facility would produce heavy
water, an essential ingredient for plutonium production. The IAEA’s
February 2003 inspection of Natanz revealed that Iran not only had
been able to develop and advance the Pakistani-supplied technology to
assemble and ‘‘cascade’’ 160 centrifuge machines, but had assembled a
sufficient quantity of parts for installing a further 1,000–5,000 centrifuge
machines between 2003 and 2005. Natanz, Iran has told the IAEA, has
been designed to produce low-enriched uranium for Iran’s planned ex-
pansion of nuclear power plants, and is therefore unable to generate
weapons-grade highly enriched uranium. The scientific community, how-
ever, is concerned that the depth and extent of the Natanz plant implies
a far more ambitious project. From the US perspective, of course, Iran’s
intention to process and complete the nuclear fuel cycle would have only
one purpose: to develop nuclear weapons.
We now know that Libya’s secret negotiations with London and Wash-
ington over the abandoning of all of its WMD activities also yielded
much valuable information about Iran’s secret nuclear programme, shed-
ding more light on the nature of its clandestine links with Pakistan and
North Korea and the murky nuclear trade across Asia. It had thus
emerged by late 2003 that Iran had established a multiple programme of
research and development, based around a strategy of flexible acquisition.
IRAN’S ASSESSMENT OF THE IRAQ CRISIS 155
Prior to Iran’s 2003 revelations, it had been surmised that Iran was
secretly pursuing the development of a nuclear weapons option in paral-
lel with its IAEA-registered nuclear research and power-generation pro-
gramme. The argument at the turn of the century was about ‘‘when’’ Iran
might be able to acquire and deploy home-grown nuclear weapons and
not ‘‘if’’. In Tehran itself, however, the inter-élite discussions about Iran’s
nuclear options entered the public arena much later than in the West,
namely in the course of the IAEA’s high-profile engagement of Tehran
from early 2003.
In Iran itself, the nuclear debate has tended to cut across factional
lines. Conservative elements make the argument against the possession
of WMD, whereas some reformers passionately argue in favour of de-
veloping a nuclear weapons option as Iran’s right and a national security
imperative. In broad terms, five principle arguments have been circulat-
ing in Iran. The first argument has been rooted in the rights and respon-
sibilities of sovereign states signatories to the NPT. As a loyal member,
some circles argue, Iran has never violated the terms of the NPT, but it
nonetheless wishes to take maximum (and legitimate) advantage of the
opportunities that the NPT offers the member states to acquire nuclear
technology and know-how for peaceful purposes. Iran, the argument
goes, should take full advantage of its NPT regime membership. Others
argue that the costs associated with nuclear research are so great that
Iran should not even enter this field. In addition, there are environmental
issues to consider and the fact that, by building nuclear facilities, Iran will
create more strategic targets for its adversaries to strike at.
The second argument pertains to the prestige of being a nuclear state.
The proponents of the nuclear option argue that, for Iran to be taken
seriously as a dominant regional actor, it must be seen to have an exten-
sive nuclear R&D programme, even though in practice it may not be
translating its research into practical use. Pointing to the examples of
North Korea, Pakistan and India, it is said that these countries have
become immune to US aggression thanks to their nuclear weapons ca-
pabilities. The opponents of this view argue that the Soviet and North
Korean examples show not only that the technological spin-offs from nu-
clear research are minimal, but that any advances in this field will inevi-
tably occur at the expense of another, probably vital, civilian sector. For
middle-income countries such as Iran, the means of recouping the costs
of nuclear research through technological spin-offs simply do not exist;
in particular, since the majority of Iran’s experienced scientific commu-
nity reside overseas, how are the benefits of such highly sensitive re-
search to have the proposed national impact?
The third argument for developing a nuclear option is rooted in the
geopolitical insecurity paradigm. Members of both main factions argue
that Iran’s neighbourhood is insecure and inter-state relations uncer-
156 ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
A geopolitical endgame?
induced regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq in the wake of 9/11 and
growing US sensitivities about Iran’s regional role have added new layers
of concern to Tehran’s anxieties.31 Iran has had only a decade to absorb
the impact of the end of the bipolar order, and is still debating how to
adjust to the geopolitical implications of a US-dominated post–Cold
War order. Yet, by early 2002, Iran had to take immediate stock of a po-
tentially even bigger upheaval in the international system – the direct and
indirect costs of a post-9/11 international order in which the US presence
in the area would be even greater and possibly more long term. Despite
the advantages for Iran of US military interventions in Afghanistan and
Iraq (two of its traditional spheres of influence), the country’s leadership
has had to balance such benefits against the real threats to Iran that US
action in Iran’s immediate neighbourhood could pose. As we have seen,
despite its consummate efforts to chart a truly independent line in its for-
eign affairs, for the first time in over a century Iran seems to have little
say, let alone control, over developments, or the direction of events, in
West Asia. The absence of control over developments around it merely
helps to exacerbate Tehran’s anxieties about the regime’s own future.
This anxiety has in turn heightened the country’s security dilemmas, as
shown in its nuclear debates. Adopting a longer-term view, however, it
is ironic that the removal of the Soviet superpower from its northern bor-
ders in 1991 and of the threats emanating from the Taliban and Saddam
Hussein in 2001 and 2003, respectively, has not only made Iranians feel
less safe at home but actually deepened the sense of siege in Tehran. In
Iran at least, the volatility of the post-9/11 international order resonates
strongly at home, both in its inter-factional relations and in its domestic
agenda-setting. But it is in the foreign policy realm that the post-9/11
order has fundamentally affected this ancient country’s ways of interac-
tion, and also its established relations, with its immediate hinterland.
With the West Asian ground now likely to be shifting under the feet of
its states for some time to come, Iran is set to continue the long cycle of
geopolitical recalculations it has been making since 1989 before it can
discover again a natural posture for itself in this volatile but strategically
significant part of the international system.
Notes
RFE/RL Iraq Report, 22 July 2004. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told the
Sunday Telegraph (4 July 2004) that as many as 10,000 foreign spies had entered Iraq
since May 2003.
28. RFE/RL Iran Report, 17 August 2004.
29. Robert J. Einhorn, ‘‘A Transatlantic Strategy on Iran’s Nuclear Program’’, Washington
Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 4 (2004), pp. 21–32.
30. According to Seymour Hersh: ‘‘Iraqi Shiite militia leaders like Moqtada al-Sadr, the
former American intelligence official said, are seen by the Israeli leadership as ‘stalking
horses’ for Iran – owing much of their success in defying the American-led coalition to
logistical and communications support and training provided by Iran. The former intel-
ligence official said, ‘We began to see telltale signs of organizational training last sum-
mer. But the White House didn’t want to hear it: ‘‘We can’t take on another problem
right now. We can’t afford to push Iran to the point where we’ve got to have a show-
down.’’ ’ ’’ See ‘‘PLAN B: As June 30th Approaches, Israel Looks to the Kurds’’, New
Yorker, 28 June 2004.
31. In the words of Afrasiabi and Maleki, Iranians were ‘‘unprepared for the massive
change – indeed a revolution – in the security environment around Iran wrought almost
overnight in the aftermath of the 11 September atrocities’’. Kaveh Afrasiabi and Abbas
Maleki, ‘‘Iran’s Foreign Policy after 11 September’’, Brown Journal of World Affairs,
Vol. 9, No. 2 (Winter/Spring 2003), p. 255.
9
The Iraq crisis and world order:
An Israeli perspective
Mark A. Heller
The most salient feature of the current international system is the over-
whelming pre-eminence of the United States, particularly in the military
sphere. In terms of its ability to generate military power and project it
abroad, the United States has no rivals and practically needs no partners.
Indeed, the current gap in military capabilities between the leading actor
and all others probably exceeds anything at least since the time of the
Roman Empire. For example, the United States already spends more
than twice as much on military procurement as does the entire European
Union. Moreover, every indicator suggests that the military divide be-
tween the United States and the rest of the world will only grow in the
foreseeable future. US investment in military research and development
(R&D), particularly in exotic areas such as cybernetics and nanotech-
nology, far outstrips that of any other country or probable coalition of
countries; it is more than four times the total R&D investment of all EU
members. This virtually ensures that the United States’ technological ad-
vantage will only increase in the coming years.
Of course, the United States’ pre-eminence does not derive solely from
its military power. The United States is also the largest single-country
economy and consumer market in the world, making it the premier target
for exports of most other countries. Compared with its nearest putative
rival – united Europe – its economy has grown faster during periods of
expansion and declined more slowly during periods of contraction. Its
population is younger and growing, whereas that of Europe is ageing
and dwindling. It is the largest underwriter of higher education and of
public and private sector scientific and medical research and develop-
ment, and it is the biggest source of technical innovation. It is even the
AN ISRAELI PERSPECTIVE 163
the willing’’, has been undermined for the foreseeable future, and the
United States will need the support of others even more than it did
before – as evidenced by the efforts of the US administration to enlist
multilateral support for its ongoing state-building operations in Iraq and
for efforts to contain Iran and roll back North Korean nuclear pro-
grammes. In short, the international system remains multipolar in many
important respects.
Both the need for cooperation with others and the difficulty of obtaining
it will almost certainly be most evident with respect to the Muslim world,
especially the Middle East. The need stems from the fact that this is
where the greatest socio-economic dysfunction is found and from where
the greatest new security threats emanate. By nearly all indicators of
political and economic openness, the Middle East lags behind most other
regions of the world. With a few notable exceptions, almost all the re-
maining authoritarian governments and state-controlled economies are
concentrated there. Again with a few exceptions, it is also the region
that generates the most intense concerns about proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction and long-range delivery systems, where the most
virulent anti-Western sentiment is cultivated, and from which the most
numerous and destructive perpetrators of terrorism draw their support,
inspiration, financing and recruits.
The difficulty of securing international cooperation stems from the fact
that this is also where other major international actors find the greatest
opportunities to assert their independence from the United States and
the fewest reasons to align themselves with it in pursuing confrontational
policies with local regimes. To some extent, this is merely a local/regional
manifestation of the general aversion of other states and international
organizations to being seen as accomplices or tools of a United States
suspected of hegemonic aspirations. Most other international actors,
especially in Europe, do not share the US view that coercion can be a
legitimate instrument of foreign policy, except in direct self-defence
(however slippery that principle may be when their own vital interests
are threatened).
However, there are also specific reasons why other actors will be reluc-
tant to alienate regional governments and vocal publics in Arab or Mus-
lim countries. These include dependence on oil, the absence of visible
and effective liberal opposition movements in most of these countries
and sensitivity about participating in what will inevitably be described
by the targets of US-led action as an anti-Muslim or anti-Arab crusade.
AN ISRAELI PERSPECTIVE 167
on the movement of people, goods, services and capital. But all of them
go to the heart of how bureaucratic-patrimonial regimes survive. The
European Union made an effort to promote some of these standards in
the EMP through a variety of inducements, but it never threatened to
withhold these ‘‘carrots’’ in the event of failure to comply. Nor did its in-
dividual members make their own assistance programmes contingent on
conformity by regional recipients with their standards of governance. In
part, they probably hoped that any incidental economic improvement
would reduce the pressures causing illegal immigration into Europe. In
part, they were responsive to complaints that such action would consti-
tute unwarranted interference in domestic affairs and contempt for the
sovereign rights of recipient states. By and large, US policy in the past
operated in a similar manner. But even if post-9/11, post-Afghanistan,
post-Iraq thinking augurs a change in US behaviour in this regard, that
change cannot have a truly decisive impact unless it is simultaneously im-
plemented by a sufficient number of other providers of financial, techni-
cal and/or security assistance – and resistance to that sort of coordinated
implementation has already compelled the United States to water down
its more ambitious plans for a ‘‘Greater Middle East Initiative’’ and
make do, instead, with yet another set of anodyne aid programmes of
the sort that have failed, in the past, to produce significant transformation
in the economics or politics of the region.
All in all, the implications of these conflicting impulses are clear. In the
international system, the United States is not even ‘‘first among equals’’
because there are no presumptive equals. Instead, it is the pre-eminent
actor in almost every respect, particularly in respect of military power.
As a result, it has the capacity, along with the will, to act unilaterally
when it feels that its vital interests are threatened. And it certainly has
the capacity to resist demands by others eager to constrain it in the hope
of transforming the international system into a kind of European Union
writ large, in which some components of identity and sovereignty are
transferred to supranational institutions, all disputes are settled peace-
fully on the basis of supranational consensus or international law defined
by multilateral consultation and negotiation, and force (except in totally
unambiguous and highly unusual instances of self-defence against direct
aggression) is effectively banished from the repertoire of foreign policy.
At the same time, however, US power alone is far from sufficient to
accomplish ambitious goals of conflict resolution between states and of
political and social transformation within states that are the source of
170 MARK A. HELLER
Since its creation, Israel has seen itself as a small power in a hostile envi-
ronment, outnumbered and out-resourced both materially and diplomati-
cally by those arrayed against it. As such, it cannot presume to shape the
world order but must instead adapt itself to it. More to the point, it has
always striven to make sure that it has the support and understanding of
at least one of the major powers. In the first decade or two of the Cold
War, the range of powers willing and able to fill this role was somewhat
broader than it subsequently became. Both France and (to a lesser ex-
tent) the United Kingdom occasionally offered material and diplomatic
backing at a time when the vestiges of empire still endowed them with
great power status. Indeed, France was Israel’s major foreign partner
and virtual ally from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s, when the conver-
gence of interests that brought the two countries together cracked fol-
lowing Algerian independence. By that time, however, both European
powers had reconciled themselves to the retreat from empire and (with
greater or lesser enthusiasm) to the reality that they could no longer
aspire to the role of global power.
That left only the United States and the Soviet Union, and the Soviet
Union was not a viable option. It is true that in the very early years of
Israel’s independence, when socialist parties were still strong and not yet
ideologically disillusioned, there were prominent voices in the Israeli po-
litical system calling for the country to align itself with the ‘‘progressive
camp’’ in the world; in 1953, the day after Stalin died, the newspaper of
Mapam (a self-proclaimed Marxist party in the governing coalition) de-
clared that the ‘‘light of the earth’’ had gone out. However, it was already
172 MARK A. HELLER
clear since the time of the Korean war that Israel, as a whole, had made a
strategic choice in favour of the West. For the most part, this was because
of a range of normative, cultural and economic affinities. But it was also
the case that the Soviet Union had disqualified itself in Israeli eyes, both
because of a resurgence of government-inspired anti-Semitism at home
and because Soviet foreign policy, in its pursuit of ‘‘anti-imperialist’’ part-
ners in Africa, Asia and Latin America, had dedicated itself to cultivating
‘‘progressive’’ Arab regimes. As a result, the Soviet Union was unavail-
able, whatever Israeli preferences may have been, and, despite some
early frictions in the US–Israeli relationship, the United States became
the default option when it began to make itself available as a strategic
ally for Israel from the mid-1960s onward.
This fundamental need to maintain a close, cooperative relationship
with the United States runs like a thread through the history of Israeli
foreign and security policy for the past four decades and explains, in par-
ticular, Israel’s response to the Iraq crisis both before and after the stage
of active hostilities. In the period leading up to the beginning of the cam-
paign, Israel modulated its posture of non-involvement to take account of
US political needs, to the point where Cabinet ministers – apart from the
foreign affairs and defence ministers – were essentially issued with ‘‘gag
orders’’ by the prime minister. The basic message was that Israel was nei-
ther opposed to the war (unlike many other US allies, Israel could not
possibly risk alienating the administration) nor in favour of it (lest that
compromise the US search for coalition partners and intensify resistance
in the Arab/Muslim world). In fact, to the extent that the public posture
indicated some ambivalence, that accurately reflected real sentiment.
On the one hand, Israel had no particular reason to feel at all solic-
itous of Saddam Hussein. Indeed, it had a long score to settle with him,
stretching back through his active support of Palestinian terrorism (the
US$25,000 reward paid by the Arab Liberation Front to families of
suicide-bombers), through the gratuitous launch of 39 Scud missiles on
Israel during the first Gulf war of 1991 and the dispatch of an Iraqi expe-
ditionary force to the Golan Heights in 1973, all the way to the public
hanging of Iraqi Jews in 1968/1969. On the other hand, Saddam Hussein
contained ‘‘in the box’’ was seen to be less dangerous than Saddam
Hussein placed in a position where he had nothing left to lose. The rea-
son for this calculus has to do with the fact that, apart from the question
of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, Iraq had already dis-
appeared as a strategic actor as far as Israel was concerned. Following
Operation Desert Storm, Iraq had lost whatever capacity it previously
had to contribute a significant expeditionary force to any eastern front, a
scenario that had become even more remote after the Jordanian–Israeli
Peace Agreement in 1994. And Saddam’s contributions to the Palestinian
AN ISRAELI PERSPECTIVE 173
prudential reluctance to put all its eggs in the same basket, and Israel
would certainly prefer to diversify its foreign relations ‘‘portfolio’’ to the
extent that is possible. Indeed, it has invested considerable resources in
cultivating other, rising powers, such as China, India, Russia and Turkey,
in addition to Europe. This diversification is reflected in patterns of
foreign trade, including defence-industrial trade. In the current and fore-
seeable circumstances, however, these other powers are not as available,
attractive or reliable as partners in the political-security domain. Further-
more, even if the gap in political-security ‘‘weight’’ separating them from
the United States were smaller, the political cost of pursuing a closer
partnership with them would in some cases be unacceptably high – either
because of the political conditions attached or because of the opportunity
cost incurred by alienating the United States. The former consideration
applies in particular to Europe; the latter applies to China (as evidenced
by the Israeli decision, under intense US pressure, to cancel a sale of the
Falcon airborne warning-and-control system).
All in all, Israel has no particular reason to find intolerable a uni-
multipolar world order in which the ‘‘uni’’ part is its closest ally and
strongest supporter. Since it is too small to have any significant impact
on the way the international order has evolved or is evolving, this is al-
most certainly as much a function of good luck as of good planning. In
this case, however, the result is more important than the cause.
Notes
1. Mohammed Ayoob and Matthew Zierler use the phrase ‘‘unipolar concert’’ to describe
essentially the same phenomenon in their contribution to this volume (Chapter 3).
2. Interview in Time Magazine, 24 February 2003.
3. Melvyn P. Leffler, ‘‘Bush’s Foreign Policy’’, Foreign Policy (September/October 2004),
pp. 22–23.
4. Even the most critical analyses of exaggerated Israeli intelligence assessments of Iraq’s
pre-war capabilities acknowledge that Israel had consistently stressed, in dialogues with
US counterparts, that the Iraqi threat was under control and that the Iranian threat was
far more serious. However, ‘‘[o]nce the Bush administration decided to take action
against Iraq, it was more difficult for Israel to maintain its position that dealing with
Iraq was not the highest priority’’. Shlomo Brom, ‘‘Israeli Intelligence on Iraq: An Intel-
ligence Failure?’’, Strategic Assessment, Vol. 6, No. 3 (November 2003), pp. 15–16.
10
Egypt and the Iraq war
Ibrahim A. Karawan
As in the rest of the Arab world, the tendency in Egypt was to see the US
military intervention in Iraq not just as one more Western intervention in
the region, but as a manifestation of a restructuring of the international
system to enforce a world order led by the United States, with the Middle
East considered as the launching pad of such global alteration. Political
activists and analysts alike in Egypt argued that the aggregate power of
the United States, reflected in its massive military strength, economic
wealth, technological edge and political leverage, gives it a decided su-
periority that all other states and international institutions cannot match
or effectively block.
The 1991 war in the Gulf was an early attempt by the United States to
project its newly acquired power against Iraq to liberate Kuwait from oc-
cupation while the Soviet Union was in the process of rapid disintegra-
tion. The US military intervention, with the objective of changing the re-
gime in Iraq under the banner of strategic pre-emption and outside the
scope of international legitimacy, was seen by Egyptian observers as a
full-blown design to reshape the region and a message to the rest of the
world that the United States’ predominance had become a fact of life and
a strategic reality.
In mapping its policy options with regard to the Iraq war in 2003, the
Egyptian regime was caught between the requirements of its role as a
regional actor striving to exercise influence in the Arab world and the
imperatives of its close relations with the United States as a predomin-
ant arms supplier, a major aid donor, a political backer and a strategic
175
176 IBRAHIM A. KARAWAN
partner since the late 1970s. In addition, the regime had to consider its
domestic political climate, in which an attentive public had become in-
creasingly anti-American owing to the Palestinian–Israeli conflict, the
tensions in the Gulf and the growth of sentiments associated with politi-
cal Islam in society at large.
This chapter will examine the interaction of these factors and how they
shaped Egyptian perceptions of the US military intervention in Iraq and
the implications for Egyptian policy toward the Iraq war. In addition, it
will analyse the debates that emerged in Egyptian society regarding the
impact of the war on the international order and the desirable and feas-
ible options available to the current Egyptian regime concerning the roles
of both the United States and the United Nations in the Middle East. For
the Egyptian regime, addressing all these considerations is like balancing
on a tightrope between the regime’s reluctance to take any radical posi-
tion that could disrupt its relations with the United States and its prefer-
ence for an active role by the United Nations and its system of collective
security. According to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt can
never lose sight of its main priority – ‘‘[p]rotecting the home front from
the repercussions of this war and rais[ing] high the banner of Egyptian
national security . . . Egypt’s position was, and still is, in opposition to
this war and it will not take part in military operations against brotherly
Iraq.’’1
ence and leverage. Usama al-Baz, a senior foreign policy adviser to Pres-
ident Mubarak, is an advocate of the notion that the international system
has been moving toward multipolarity. Although US military power ap-
pears to be expanding, the political utility of reliance on military power
is in a state of relative decline. Such power, according to al-Baz, is no
longer the primary currency in international politics because the financial
costs of large-scale and prolonged military intervention have become
burdensome, even for the mightiest military powers. Domestic factors in
such countries, including the United States, deserve more analytic atten-
tion.
Thus, from such a perspective, foreign policy predicated on the as-
sumption of an unchallenged US hegemony would be problem ridden be-
cause the international realities are more complicated than suggested by
the logic of a fleeting ‘‘unipolar moment’’. Not only is the international
system in transition, but the choices made by regional actors can also
play an important role in shaping policy outcomes. It may be instructive,
for instance, to refer to how two Middle Eastern states, Iran and Syria,
took advantage of the US stalemate in Iraq to enhance their bargaining
positions in relation to the United States, despite the decisive power
asymmetry between each country and the United States.
Other examples of the perceived limits of structural factors in deter-
mining the positions of states in conflict areas and of the argument that
US dominance is not necessarily compelling may be seen in the following:
1. Turkey’s rejection of deployment by the United States, another NATO
member, through its borders with Iraq, despite US power, was a sign
that political reform may not necessarily produce outcomes that are
favourable to or congruent with US policies or élite preferences.
2. Despite Saudi Arabia’s strategic reliance on the United States, its
leadership decided, owing to public opinion among other factors, to
limit US military access to some of its most sophisticated and strategi-
cally located airbases.
3. Although the United States refused to rule out any significant Euro-
pean role at the beginning of the armed intervention in Iraq, the grow-
ing difficulties faced by the United States seem to have convinced its
leaders to seek incremental rapprochement with Europe, as much as
possible, in order to increase the chances of multilateral action.
4. The previous point applies also to the case of the United Nations in
Iraq, particularly concerning the elections in that country, whose legit-
imacy required going beyond US unilateral action and legitimizing
and accepting the role of the United Nations.
5. The same asymmetry exists in Iran’s relations with the United States,
although US policy makers must take into account the economic and
political price that society and its élites may be willing to pay for exter-
178 IBRAHIM A. KARAWAN
against peace in the region might become stronger. Europe, the United
Nations and the United States could play a role in implementing the
road map to peace and thus avoid a risky regional outcome.12
regardless of what they said in their media. Perhaps that is why some
pan-Arabist circles describe their vulnerable position with terms such
as in’idam al-wazn (weightlessness), tahmish (marginalization), ma’zaq
(predicament), and azmah-karethah (crisis disaster).16
As a result, the Arab system was not able to make a difference to the
mother of all Arab causes, namely the Palestinian issue vis-à-vis Israel,
let alone the case of Iraq being attacked by the United States. In practice,
Arab state preferences have taken precedence over all pan-Arabist
claims. Egypt’s prominent writer Mohamed H. Heikal attributed the ero-
sion of the pan-Arabist camp and the weakening of the Arab world to the
dramatic defection of Egypt from the Arab coalition and its disengage-
ment from the Arab–Israeli conflict.17 It is not self-evident, however,
that Egypt had the ability to maintain the struggle for ever or that a con-
sensus on its leadership had existed at the Arab level. It is more likely
that the state of fragmentation in the Arab order made it even more dif-
ficult for Arab states to cope effectively with the Iraq war.
It was Robert Fisk of the UK newspaper The Independent who popu-
larized the question during the Iraq war: ‘‘What on earth is it with the
Arabs?’’ While millions of protesters marched in Europe and Asia
against the looming war in Iraq, Arab capitals were indeed largely quiet
in what was described as a ‘‘deafening silence’’.18 One Arab intellectual
argued that the Arabs are in fact torn between authoritarian regimes that
lack the political power to express their national will and aspirations pos-
itively, and a superpower that wants to implement its control over the re-
gion. In the words of Talal Salman, editor of al-Safir newspaper,
It is a sad reality that people around the world were able to express their views on
the Iraq crisis while all of us took refuge in silence. [Many] regimes in the Arab
world believe they can buy their survival from the United States by discreetly
agreeing to American plans, while publicly denouncing the U.S. and suppressing
all forms of public resentment.19
This is, of course, related to what has come to be known as the role of
the Arab street in constraining the foreign policies of its current political
regimes.20
strations and riots against the Iraq war, opposition movements would
seize the opportunity to benefit from coverage by news media and satel-
lite television stations to mobilize support among intellectuals and in
the street. Arab satellite TV stations have influenced the perception of
viewers in Egypt and in other Arab countries. Perhaps no previous war
has been so extensively covered by various news sources around the
clock. In Egypt, the anti-riot police forces backed by armoured personnel
carriers were mobilized to prevent and deter potential demonstrators.
Thus, while the opposition wanted to use the Iraq war to discredit the re-
gime, policy makers made sure there were adequate coercive instruments
to contain the challenges posed by Islamist, Nasserite and leftist opposi-
tion groups, who were shouting such things as ‘‘We won’t bow, we won’t
bow, we are sick of the quiet voice’’, and ‘‘Build more prison cells, to-
morrow the revolution will come and leave no one’’.21
Many political activists in Egypt were arrested for their activities
against the war in Iraq, and their cases were supported by groups such
as Human Rights Watch, the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights
and the Egyptian Press Syndicate. In these instances, condemnations of
the war and of state repression, as well demands for political reform, po-
litical liberalization and cancellation of the emergency laws, were pack-
aged together in the demand, ‘‘No to war . . . No to tyranny’’.22
Repression was not the only means through which the Egyptian state
tried to cope with the situation. President Mubarak called for an urgent
Arab summit meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh saying, ‘‘We must show our
people that we are making an effort to stop the war.’’ As Ahmed Maher,
Egypt’s foreign minister, made clear, ‘‘There is anger on the streets be-
cause there is a feeling that Muslim countries are under attack.’’23 The
official media were allowed by the state to take militant positions that
might be even more extreme than the positions taken by opposition
newspapers during the war in terms of denouncing the US policy of
force in Iraq. The ruling National Democratic Party organized Egypt’s
largest rally against the war, with probably 600,000 protesters taking
part. As in other Arab countries, the regime proved able to co-opt the
street, even to emasculate the protest, and make its citizens watch the
war on television.
Thus, little threat to regime security has materialized. Regimes had
enough time and resources to take steps to maintain political control, in-
cluding occasional talk about reform, which, according to officials, has to
come from within and not from outside, to be incremental not radical,
and to be consistent with Arab cultural specificity. The Egyptian state
also engaged in a few symbolic acts as manifestations of gradual reform,
such as abolishing law no. 105 regulating state security courts and estab-
lishing a national council for human rights.24 The top priority of the re-
EGYPT AND THE IRAQ WAR 185
Notes
22. International Crisis Group, The Challenge of Political Reform: Egypt after the Iraq War,
Middle East Briefing, Cairo/Brussels, 30 September 2003; Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, ‘‘No
to War . . . No to Tyranny’’, Al-Ahram Weekly, No. 627 (27 February–5 March 2003);
Mona El-Ghobashy, ‘‘Egypt’s Summer of Discontent’’, Middle East Report, 18 Septem-
ber 2003; and Tamir Moustafa, ‘‘Protests Hint at New Chapter in Egyptian Politics’’,
Middle East Report, 9 April 2004.
23. Nevine Khalil, ‘‘End of the Road’’, Al-Ahram Weekly, No. 628 (6–12 March 2003). See
Jonathan Schanzer, ‘‘The Arab Street and the War: Are Regimes in Control?’’, Wash-
ington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch, No. 729 (21 March 2003).
24. Ibrahim Karawan, ‘‘Security Sector Reform and Retrenchment in the Middle East’’, in
Heiner Hanggi and Theodore H. Winkler, eds, Challenges of Security Sector Gover-
nance (Munster: LIT Verlag, 2003), p. 258.
25. See the statements by Issam El-Erian, member of the Shura Council of the Muslim
Brotherhood, in Omayma Abdel-Latif, ‘‘Preemptive Containment’’, Al-Ahram Weekly,
No. 620 (9–15 January 2003). See also a comprehensive analysis in Ahmed Abdalla,
Egypt before & after September 11, 2001: Problems of Political Transformation in a
Complicated International Setting, Doi-Focus, No. 9 (March 2003); and see also Amr
Hamzawy, The Continued Costs of Political Stagnation in Egypt, Democracy and Rule
of Law Project (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Febru-
ary 2005).
11
Reactions in the Muslim world
to the Iraq conflict
Amin Saikal
The public reaction to the Iraq war and occupation has been one of al-
most universal opposition in the Muslim world, and has extended to
non-Muslim minorities, especially within its Arab domain. With the ex-
ception of the oil-rich mini-states of Kuwait and, to some extent, Qatar,
as well as Afghanistan, leaderships of all Muslim countries have either
condemned or criticized military actions against Iraq. They have called
for the withdrawal of occupying forces and for UN supervision of Iraq’s
transition, empowerment of the Iraqi people to run their country and res-
toration of Iraq’s independence and sovereignty. Further, they regard the
invasion of Iraq as being against the better judgement of the UN Security
Council, a defiance of international law and a serious threat to regional
stability and international order. In this, they have reflected the mood of
a majority of their populations, which, according to various pre- and post-
war public opinion surveys by Gallup and other agencies, have been anti-
war and anti-American.
This, however, should not hide the diversity of views and attitudes that
have emerged at the levels of élites as distinct from the masses, and of
public as distinct from private circles. While publicly emphasizing an ac-
cord between their policy stand and the attitudes of a majority of their
subjects in common opposition to the US-led military actions, at the pri-
vate level many regimes have nonetheless either acquiesced in US ac-
tions or supported them. In this, they have given effect to different and
shifting ‘‘national interests’’, geopolitical circumstances and political pref-
erences, as defined by rulers of the day. Two bodies that have actively
187
188 AMIN SAIKAL
Élite attitudes
ears. The problem with the Arab League and OIC positions from the
start was two-fold. First, these organizations arose in 1945 and 1969, re-
spectively, in response to a need of many Arab and Muslim leaders to
show a semblance of unity based on shared, intertwined factors of Arab-
ism and Muslim identity against challenges from inside and outside their
domains. However, in the absence of concrete common political prin-
ciples, ideological values and mechanisms and instruments of policy en-
forcement to bind them together, they have had little on which they
could rely to enable them to elevate themselves beyond formulating a
collective position to give practical expression to that position on vital
foreign policy issues.
During the Cold War, when most of the OIC members joined the
Non-Aligned Movement from the late 1950s and 1960s, they were in
practice haunted by and divided over a variety of questions, ranging
from what to do with the Palestinian problem and how to protect them-
selves against rival major powers to how to deal with the challenges of
modernization versus traditionalism. As it turned out, they dissipated
most of their energy and resources on defending themselves against one
another and securing the favours of one superpower against the other,
rather than forging a united front in world politics. The disintegration
of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War did not bring any
major change in this respect. If anything, the constraint of the politics of
global bipolarity was lifted, enabling OIC members to become more dar-
ing and competitive against one another in search of security in a world
dominated by one superpower – the United States. The deference of
their regimes to the power and influence of the United States did not
allow most of them to reconcile their private positions with their public
rhetoric on many issues, including, most importantly, the latest Iraq
conflict.
The meetings of the League and the OIC prior to the invasion of Iraq
were marred by fundamental disputes between Iraq and Kuwait. Small
but oil-rich Kuwait constantly accused Iraq of threatening its sovereignty
and independence, based on Iraq’s past claims on Kuwait and its 1990 in-
vasion. On the other hand, Iraq persistently painted Kuwait as a bridge-
head enabling the United States to achieve its ‘‘imperialist designs’’
against Iraq and for that matter the Arab nation and Muslim world, and
pressured other participants to side with it. The acrimonious exchanges
between the two degenerated into a circus at the early and late March
2003 meetings of the League and the OIC. Whereas Saudi Arabia and
other oil-rich GCC members backed Kuwait and used their oil muscle to
influence others to do the same, other participants walked a tightrope
with a view to not being seen either as upholding Iraq’s position or as of-
fending the United States and its GCC allies.7
192 AMIN SAIKAL
The charade behind that meeting was typical of many other meetings
of the two organizations following the invasion of Iraq. The outcome of
the meetings was always a compromise between pro-US and anti-US ele-
ments, with a number of other members, including those with strong na-
tionalist or pro-Arabist or pro-Islamist leanings, finding themselves with
the awkward task of maintaining and projecting the image of unity to the
outside world. Even when finally the League and the OIC found it neces-
sary to invite the representative of the US-appointed Iraqi Interim Gov-
erning Council and its successor, the Iraqi Interim Government, to take
up the Iraq seat from 1 June 2004, the struggle between those opposing
and those supporting a dominant US role in the Arab and Muslim worlds
underlined the ineffectiveness of the League and the OIC. Although their
members have publicly adopted a common position, in private those
members have had little hesitation in undermining that position by pursu-
ing policy actions beneficial to their individual interests.
The very leaders who publicly levelled serious criticism at the United
States assured Washington in private that, as many in the Bush adminis-
tration have claimed, they would do nothing to hinder or cause difficulties
for the United States in achieving its objectives. All of them have used
repressive measures wherever required to control anti-war dissent and
active opposition in their countries. No leaders were more assertive in
this respect than those of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Jordan.
This was true even in the case of the government of the Islamic Republic
of Iran – a staunch opponent of the United States in the Muslim world.
Tehran, of course, was not guided by a politics of dependence on the
United States but rather was induced by strategic considerations to do
whatever was feasible to avoid becoming a direct target of the United
States and to exploit the unprecedented opportunities opened up to Iran
by the US fixation on the Saddam Hussein regime. Iran adopted the
position that, although it was opposed to US-led military action, it had
deeper grievances against Saddam Hussein and therefore it would not
stand in the way of the United States toppling the Iraqi dictator.
While talking of a united opposition to military actions, for example,
the governments of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and
Oman, as well as that of Saudi Arabia, were concurrently making their
territories and facilities available for use by the forces of the United
States and its allies. Of course some of them did so more than others, al-
though none of them to the extent of Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. If it
had not been for the assistance of these states, the United States and its
REACTIONS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD TO THE IRAQ CONFLICT 193
partners in the ‘‘coalition of the willing’’ would have had enormous diffi-
culty in launching and prosecuting the war successfully. This was particu-
larly so in view of the fact that a conflict in Muslim Turkey between its
government, which was willing to fulfil Turkey’s alliance obligations to-
wards the United States and keen to use US leverage to support other
foreign policy interests, and its people, an overwhelming majority of
whom opposed any participation in the war, caused such political con-
sternation and delay as to prevent Turkey from serving as the northern
launch pad for the US attack on Iraq.
Popular sentiment
This élite duplicity has not been representative of the popular reaction,
under both religious and nationalist impulses, to the invasion and occupa-
tion of Iraq. Based on various public opinion surveys,8 a majority of citi-
zens in the Muslim world have been scornful of the invasion and what has
transpired in Iraq since then. Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, which was
courted as an ally by the United States in the 1980s, enjoyed little pop-
ular support in Iraq and the Muslim world, given its brutal and secular
nature. However, most Muslims have rejected Washington’s approach to
solving the problem as two-faced and irresponsible. They easily recall
that it was the United States that left Saddam Hussein in place in 1991,
knowing full well that he would continue to brutalize the Iraqi popula-
tion. They realize that, when Saddam Hussein used weapons of mass de-
struction against his own people, the US administration knew what was
happening but did nothing major to prevent it. They are suspicious of
the reasons for which the United States and its largely Anglo-Celtic allies
(the United Kingdom and Australia) took it upon themselves to secure
the removal of that regime by military means. The failure of the occupy-
ing forces thus far to substantiate their original justification for war by
proving that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed dangerous weapons of
mass destruction9 or had aided international terrorism has reinforced
their belief that the war and the occupation have been part of a wider
strategy to remake the Middle East in the image of the United States
and its allies and to marginalize political Islam in world politics.
They are pained by the fact that, in demolishing Saddam Hussein’s re-
gime, the United States and its coalition of the willing also destroyed the
state in Iraq, with no appropriate plan for post-war management of the
country. Although shedding no tears over Saddam Hussein’s departure,
like many in the rest of the world they are appalled that a devastating
war was imposed on the Iraqi people at the cost of thousands of civilian
casualties and infrastructural and historical destruction for what they see
194 AMIN SAIKAL
in their ideological disposition and modus operandi and share some of the
platform of their moderate counterparts, especially in adhering to the
fundamentals of Islam. However, they differ from the moderates in their
puritanical disposition and orthodox political and social operations. They
want the sharia (Islamic law) instituted as the foundation for the opera-
tion of the state. They view political and social imposition and the use of
violence in certain circumstances as legitimate means to protect and as-
sert their religion and religious-cultural identity and to create the kind
of polity they deem Islamic. They are not necessarily against modernity,
but they want to ensure that modernity and all its manifestations are
adopted in conformity with their religious values and practices. They are
prone to act radically to redress perceived historical and contemporary
injustices inflicted upon Muslims by outsiders, but do not necessarily ex-
tend this to similar injustices committed by Muslim against Muslim. They
challenge outside powers and their own governments for either being
under the influence and control of those powers or failing to respond ef-
fectively to the domestic and foreign policy problems facing the Muslim
world. They hold the West, and the United States in particular, respon-
sible for the political, social and economic plight and cultural decay of
Muslims everywhere and for the damage inflicted upon Muslims by Euro-
pean colonization and post-1945 US domination of most of the Muslim
domain. They have often functioned more successfully in opposition
than in power. They characterize violent Muslim actions against the
United States and its allies as legitimate responses to US behaviour.
Radical Islamists view the United States as their most dangerous
enemy, not only for backing Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands,
most importantly East Jerusalem, but also for propping up corrupt and
dictatorial regimes in many Muslim countries, which they maintain the
United States does in order to keep the Muslim world backward and to
ensure US hegemonic dominance in world politics. They consider much
of what has become an international crisis since 11 September to be a de-
liberate strategy by hard-core realists of the Cold War era and ‘‘born
again’’ Christians, who they believe now dominate the Bush administra-
tion and who want to replace the Soviet Union with Islam as the enemy.
Their views are often marked by intense hostility to Jews (while insisting
they have no quarrel with Judaism). Many among them regard the United
States and the civilization for which it stands as demeaning and repug-
nant to Islam and the Islamic way of life. They have pointed to the US
military involvement in Afghanistan and the occupation of Iraq as clear
evidence of the United States’ hostility towards not just Muslims but
also Islam per se. From their perspective, the battle for the future of rela-
tions between Islam and the West, more specifically the United States, is
now fought on several fronts, but none as important as those of Iraq and
198 AMIN SAIKAL
Notes
1. For a detailed discussion, see Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democ-
racy at Home and Abroad (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003), Chapter 4.
2. For a detailed critical discussion, see Robert Bowker, Beyond Peace: The Search for Se-
curity in the Middle East (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1996), pp. 24–28.
3. See Amin Saikal, Islam and the West: Conflict or Cooperation? (London: Palgrave Mac-
millan, 2003), Chapter 5.
4. The League of Arab States – Press Release, 21 March 2003.
5. League of Arab States Resolution – Press Release, 25 March 2003.
6. ‘‘Islamic Nations Totally Reject Iraq War’’, Al-Jazeera, News, March 2003.
7. For a sample of analyses on the subject, see ‘‘Arab League Meet Will Not Help Bagh-
dad, Says Analyst’’, Gulf News, 22 February 2003; Mohammed Sid-Ahmed, ‘‘The Fu-
ture of the Arab League’’, Al-Ahram (Weekly), 15–21 March 2003; Waseem Shehzad,
‘‘OIC Fiasco Exposes Arab Rulers’ Divisions and Impotence’’, Muslimedia Interna-
tional, 16–31 March 2003; Mushahid Hussein, ‘‘OIC Proves to Be a Damp Squib’’,
Gulf News, 22 October 2003.
8. See Jim Lobe, ‘‘Gap Grows between U.S., World Public Opinion’’, Inter-Press Service,
16 March 2004; Shiibley Telhami, ‘‘Arab Public Opinion: A Survey in Six Countries’’,
San Jose Mercury, 16 March 2003; Susan Page, ‘‘Poll: Muslim Countries, Europe Ques-
tion U.S. Motives’’, USA Today, 24 June 2004; ‘‘Poll: Majority of Muslims Think U.S.
‘Ruthless’, ‘Arrogant’ ’’, IslamOnline, hhttp://www.islamonline.net/english/News/2002–
02/27/artucke05.shtmli, 24 June 2004.
9. See Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews and George Perkovich, WMD in Iraq:
Evidence and Implications (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, 2004).
10. For details, see BBC News World Edition, 6 May 2004.
11. Scott Ritter, ‘‘Saddam’s People Are Winning the War’’, International Herald Tribune,
22 July 2004. On the issue of Iraqis’ distrust of the United States and its allies, see Tho-
mas E. Ricks, ‘‘80% in Iraq Distrust Occupation Authority’’, Washington Post, 13 May
2004.
12. United Press International, 28 August 2002.
13. This is also a central argument in Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside Amer-
ica’s War on Terror (New York: Free Press, 2004).
14. For a detailed discussion of these clusters, see Saikal, Islam and the West, pp. 19–23.
15. For a US perspective from inside the US administration, see Clarke, Against All Ene-
mies, Chapters 10–11.
Part IV
External actor perspectives
12
The United States and the
United Nations in light of
wars on terrorism and Iraq
Jane Boulden and Thomas G. Weiss
203
204 JANE BOULDEN AND THOMAS G. WEISS
1992 when it sought to compel Libyan compliance with the criminal in-
vestigation relating to the bombings of the Pan Am and UTA flights,
in 1988 and 1989 respectively, and end Libyan support of terrorism
more generally.4 In the absence of Tripoli’s cooperation, the Security
Council moved, in March 1992, to impose economic sanctions on Libya,
strengthening them later by Resolutions 731, 748 and 883. The Council
responded similarly for the Sudan in 1996, calling on the government to
extradite the suspects in an assassination attempt on Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak, and then imposing sanctions when Khartoum failed to
do so in Resolutions 1044, 1054 and 1070. In response to the bombings
of US embassies in East Africa, Council members imposed sanctions
against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, increasing their strength and
scope over time through Resolutions 1267 and 1333. In this last instance,
in order to oversee the sanctions process and ensure that it was being
adequately implemented, in July 2001 Security Council Resolution 1363
created a committee to monitor the sanctions process.
The General Assembly thus dealt with terrorism overall by establish-
ing international rules and norms about what kind of behaviour was and
was not acceptable. By contrast, the Security Council responded to spe-
cific events with concrete measures on a case-by-case basis. The focus of
both was on the state as a source of and a solution to the problem.
Signs of a shift in the division of labour appeared in 1999, when the Se-
curity Council passed Resolution 1269 dealing with terrorism as a general
issue and condemned ‘‘all acts, methods and practices of terrorism as
criminal and unjustifiable, regardless of their motivation’’ and called on
states to take a series of measures to prevent and suppress terrorist acts
and deny safe haven to those planning them. The resolution was notable
because motivation was not an attenuating factor, and the Security Coun-
cil was responding to terrorism as a global phenomenon.
9/11
Neither terrorism, nor its manifestation in the form of al-Qaeda, was un-
familiar territory when the tragic attacks took place against US territory
on 11 September 2001. The Security Council met the following day and
with remarkable unanimity and speed passed Resolution 1368, recogniz-
ing the ‘‘inherent right to self-defence’’ as a legitimate response. Shortly
thereafter, it moved further to establish a wide-ranging set of require-
ments to be undertaken by states in order to suppress and hinder terror-
ist activity. Resolution 1373 requires states to undertake a variety of
national measures to suppress financing and to ensure non-support for
terrorist activity, as well as such cooperative international measures
206 JANE BOULDEN AND THOMAS G. WEISS
ism; to deny groups or individuals the means to carry out such acts; and
to work to sustain international cooperation.5
With the United Nations sidelined in the war against Iraq, everyone
was unhappy – the United Nations could not impede US hegemony, and
it could not approve the requisite action against Saddam Hussein. In the
midst of the crisis about intervention in Iraq, the Secretary-General indi-
cated that the United Nations was at a ‘‘fork in the road . . . no less deci-
sive than 1945 itself, when the United Nations was founded’’.6 Annan
asked 16 former senior government officials – the High-level Panel on
Threats, Challenges and Change (HLP) – to describe what ailed the
United Nations and propose a way forward. Among its shopping list of
101 recommendations on virtually every topic on the United Nations’
agenda, the blue-ribbon panel’s December 2004 report, A More Secure
World, outlined a useful strategy based on dissuasion, measures to
counter extremism and intolerance, the development of better counter-
terrorism instruments in the context of human rights requirements,
strengthened state capabilities, and control of dangerous materials.7
While reaffirming the approach in place at the United Nations, the
HLP emphasized the extent to which the absence of an agreed definition
of terrorism hampered progress. It argued that a definition should be
agreed in the General Assembly, ‘‘given its unique legitimacy in norma-
tive terms’’, and suggested that a definition of terrorism should recognize
that the use of force against civilians constitutes a war crime or crime
against humanity. The panel proposed ‘‘a description of terrorism as
‘any action, in addition to actions already specified by existing conven-
tions . . . that is intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians
or non-combatants, when the purpose of such an act, by its nature or con-
text, is to intimidate a population or to compel a Government or an inter-
national organization to do or to abstain from doing any act’ ’’.8
There always have been two main sticking points relating to defining
terrorism. The first was captured by the expression ‘‘your terrorist is my
freedom fighter’’ – that is, many developing countries justify armed vio-
lence by those fighting for national liberation. The second was whether
‘‘state terrorism’’ should be included in any definition agreed by the vast
majority of member states – for many, the use of force by Israeli and,
more recently, US forces is mentioned in the same breath as suicide-
bombers.
The HLP confronted these traditional stumbling blocks: ‘‘Attacks that
specifically target innocent civilians and non-combatants must be con-
demned clearly and unequivocally by all.’’9 The Secretary-General sup-
ported this in his own document for the Summit by stating that ‘‘the pro-
posal has clear moral force’’.10
The World Summit’s final text failed to define terrorism, but for the
208 JANE BOULDEN AND THOMAS G. WEISS
first time in UN history the assembled heads of state and government is-
sued an unqualified condemnation.11 They agreed to ‘‘strongly condemn
terrorism in all forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wher-
ever and for whatever purposes’’.12 The final text eliminated earlier and
clearer language that targeting civilians could not be justified, in ex-
change for dropping an exemption for movements resisting occupa-
tion. On balance, the Summit adds momentum to the Secretary-General’s
evolving counter-terrorism strategy. Whether or not it is signed, sealed
and delivered anytime soon or whether the General Assembly ‘‘con-
cludes a comprehensive convention on international terrorism’’ within a
year as hoped, the Summit’s clear condemnation of violence against civil-
ians is a step forward. It has ethical content, contains the basis for a con-
vention and places the United Nations near the centre of the fight against
terrorism.
In brief, the United Nations’ response to terrorism has evolved consid-
erably from the early 1970s. During three decades, the General Assembly
has generated 13 legal conventions focusing on prohibiting and inhibiting
various terrorist forms of attack and support. By contrast, the Security
Council did not begin to deal with the question until the early 1990s, and
then it took a case-by-case approach to de-legitimize state support for
terrorism and to compel states sponsoring terrorism to comply with na-
tional and international requirements. Terrorist activity, especially the at-
tacks on the World Trade Center in 1993 and on US embassies later in
the 1990s, catapulted the Security Council, under Washington’s impetus,
into the terrorism realm at a time when the end of the Cold War made
agreement more plausible than it had been earlier. It also eventually
prompted the Security Council to address terrorism in a more compre-
hensive manner, a foundation used to construct its post-9/11 strategy.
The Security Council has overtaken, although not eliminated, the Gen-
eral Assembly’s role, but the latter remains crucial as the follow-up to the
World Summit suggests. If the views of the world organization’s entire
membership are considered important to the development of interna-
tional order, the codification of emerging norms should take place in a
forum with a comprehensive view. A counterbalance is necessary to off-
set concerns about Western-centric emphases in the Security Council,
which predictably were not changed by the Summit.13 But the overall im-
pact on this score is mixed, and acceptance and adherence to the conven-
tions remain a struggle.14
The Security Council’s record is also chequered. Arguably, the sanc-
tions strategy had some impact against Libya and the Sudan – both even-
tually found a way to hand over suspects and meet the demands to com-
ply with legal processes. But there was little such progress with the
Taliban and al-Qaeda prior to 9/11, and Security Council actions up until
THE USA AND THE UN AND WARS ON TERRORISM AND IRAQ 209
that point clearly had no impact on al-Qaeda’s ability to launch its lethal
attacks of September 2001.
A more significant development was the establishment of the CTC.
Formed to monitor the implementation of Resolution 1373, it has be-
come an integral part of the United Nations’ terrorism strategy. All 15
Security Council members take part, and three sub-committees under-
take to analyse reports provided by member states. This process is sup-
plemented by routine advice and assistance from outside experts, an
important first in Security Council work. The CTC also consults with re-
gional and other international organizations in order to facilitate greater
cooperation. Early in its mandate, the CTC determined that the tasks re-
quired of member states were taxing. Through Resolution 1377 in No-
vember 2001, it began an assistance role, providing support in the form
of advice, experts and technical cooperation to those states in need.
The CTC does not deal in policy, and its mandate is solely to monitor
and facilitate the provisions of Resolution 1373. Its first chairman, the
United Kingdom’s Permanent Representative Sir Jeremy Greenstock,
stated that the CTC’s purpose is to ‘‘monitor, to be analytical, and to re-
port facts to the Security Council for consideration’’.15 In addition to es-
tablishing and overseeing support for member states in need of assistance
– a major undertaking, especially for a committee that is an ad hoc cre-
ation and continues to work on the basis of 90-day work plans – during
2004 the Security Council worked to ‘‘revitalize’’ the CTC’s work by
strengthening its capabilities. In March 2004, Security Council Resolution
1535 approved a new structure, establishing a Counter-Terrorism Execu-
tive Directorate, whose executive director is appointed by the Secretary-
General and is based in the secretariat.
these developments are, the Security Council’s debates and actions are
missing two elements: limits or qualifications for responding to terrorism;
and the legitimacy of the Council, and by extension of the United Na-
tions, to act on these matters.
Much of the United Nations’ response is about process – committees,
reports, lists, cooperation and consultation. None of it involves consider-
ation of the questions of how or whether to address root causes16 or of
the legitimacy and adequacy of force as a response to terrorist events.
An avoidance of judgement of state responses to terrorism is not new –
just as the Security Council was unable to deal with terrorism prior to
the end of the Cold War, it was also unable and unwilling to address the
nature of state responses to attacks.17 One shift after 9/11 is that UN re-
sponses consist of a more vocal concern that international commitments
to human rights be respected. Almost every Security Council resolution
now contains within it, as did the final declaration by the 2005 World
Summit, this reminder. By contrast, the question of how to deal with the
use of force in counter-terrorist operations remains unaddressed.
The fact that the United States has a carte blanche in Afghanistan,
whereas others are required to play by the rules, has had a negative im-
pact on the credibility of the Security Council. Washington has to do more
than give lip-service to the needs of others. Unless the United States
is prepared to bend on occasion and contribute to solutions for priority
problems of other regions and countries, the latter are unlikely to sign
on when their helping hands are necessary for US priorities. This realiza-
tion has yet to dawn fully on the Bush administration, whose standard
operating procedure is that the United States leads and other countries
either follow or get out of the way. Will this continue? We come back to
this question after examining developments in Iraq with especial rele-
vance in the United Nations’ consideration of what Brian Urquhart spec-
ulates could be ‘‘the mother of all poisoned chalices’’.18
Conclusion
Notes
1. The argument draws upon Jane Boulden and Thomas G. Weiss, eds, Terrorism and the
UN: Before and After September 11 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004).
2. An exception was Security Council Resolution 286, adopted by consensus in 1970, call-
ing on states to take measures to prevent hijackings.
3. For details of the General Assembly’s role, see M. J. Peterson, ‘‘Using the General As-
sembly’’, in Boulden and Weiss, eds, Terrorism and the UN, pp. 173–197. For a listing of
the terrorist conventions, see hhttp://untreaty.un.org/English/Terrorism.aspi; and for
the General Assembly resolutions, see hhttp://www.un.org/terrorism/res.htmi.
4. For details of the Security Council’s role, see Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, ‘‘The Role of
the Security Council’’, in Boulden and Weiss, eds, Terrorism and the UN, pp. 151–172.
5. Report of the Policy Working Group on the United Nations and Terrorism, UN Doc.
A/57/273–S/2002/875, 6 August 2002.
6. The Secretary-General’s Address to the 58th Session of the UN General Assembly,
New York, 23 September 2003, UN Doc. A/58/PV.7, p. 3.
7. A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility. Report of the Secretary-General’s
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (New York: United Nations,
2004), paras 145–164.
8. Ibid., paras 163–164.
9. Ibid., para. 161.
10. Kofi Annan, In Larger Freedom: Towards Development, Security and Human Rights for
All, UN Doc. A/59/2005, 21 March 2005, para. 91.
11. For an evaluation of this and other issues from the World Summit, see Thomas G. Weiss
and Barbara Crossette, ‘‘The United Nations, post-Kofi Annan’’, in Great Decisions
2006 (New York: Foreign Policy Association, forthcoming).
12. 2005 World Summit Outcome, UN Doc. A/60/L.1, 15 September 2005, para. 81.
13. See Thomas G. Weiss and Karen Young, ‘‘Compromise and Credibility: Security Coun-
cil Reform?’’, Security Dialogue, Vol. 36, No. 2 (June 2005), pp. 131–154; and Thomas
G. Weiss, Overcoming the Security Council Impasse: Envisioning Reform, Occasional
Paper 14 (Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2005).
14. Few states have ratified the three earliest conventions: 25 for the 1973 Convention on
the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons, in-
cluding Diplomatic Agents; 39 for the 1979 International Convention against the Taking
216 JANE BOULDEN AND THOMAS G. WEISS
of Hostages; and 58 for the 1997 Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings.
The 1999 Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism has 117 ratifi-
cations.
15. See Press Briefings by the Chairman of the CTC, 19 October 2001, hhttp://www.un.org/
Docs/sc/committees/1373/briefings.htmli.
16. See Rama Mani, ‘‘The Root Causes of Terrorism and Prevention’’, in Boulden and
Weiss, eds, Terrorism and the UN, pp. 219–241.
17. Edward C. Luck, ‘‘Tackling Terrorism’’, in David M. Malone, ed., The UN Security
Council: From the Cold War to the 21 st Century (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2004),
pp. 85–100.
18. Brian Urquhart, ‘‘The United Nations Rediscovered?’’, World Policy Journal, Vol. 21,
No. 2 (2004), pp. 1–2.
19. For additional material with specific reference to US domestic and foreign policy, see
Thomas G. Weiss, Margaret E. Crahan and John Goering, eds, Wars on Terrorism and
Iraq: Human Rights, Unilateralism, and U.S. Foreign Policy (London: Routledge, 2004).
20. Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, 30 September
2004 (report by Charles Duelfer), hhttp://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/i; and
Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction (the ‘‘Butler’’ report, chaired by
Rt. Hon. Lord Butler of Brockwell), 14 July 2004, hhttp://www.official-documents.co.uk/
document/deps/hc/hc898/898.pdfi.
21. ‘‘Address by Mr. George W. Bush, President of the United States of America’’, UN
General Assembly, 57th Session, 12 September 2002, UN Doc. A/57/PV.2, p. 6.
22. See Joseph E. Nye, Jr, The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Super-
power Can’t Go It Alone (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).
23. ‘‘Last of the Big Time Spenders: U.S. Military Budget Still the World’s Largest, and
Growing’’, Center for Defense Information, Table on ‘‘Fiscal Year 2004 Budget’’, based
on data provided by the US Department of Defense and International Institute for
Strategic Studies, Washington, D.C., hhttp://www.cdi.org/budget/2004/world-military-
spending.cfmi.
24. Barry R. Posen, ‘‘Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegem-
ony’’, International Security, Vol. 28, No. 1 (2003), pp. 5–46.
25. See Stewart Patrick and Shepard Forman, eds, Multilateralism and U.S. Foreign Policy:
Ambivalent Engagement (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002). A companion volume of
non-US reactions is David M. Malone and Yuen Foong Khong, eds, Unilateralism and
U.S. Foreign Policy: International Perspectives (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2003).
26. Andrew Hurrell, ‘‘International Law and the Changing Constitution of International
Society’’, in Michael Byers, ed., The Role of Law in International Politics: Essays in In-
ternational Relations and International Law (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000),
p. 344.
27. See Mats Berdal, ‘‘The UN Security Council: Ineffective but Indispensable’’, Survival,
Vol. 45, No. 2 (2003), pp. 7–30; Shashi Tharoor, ‘‘Why America Still Needs the United
Nations’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 5 (2003), pp. 67–80; and Madeleine K. Albright,
‘‘Think Again: United Nations’’, Foreign Policy, No. 138 (2003), pp. 16–24.
28. ‘‘Statement of H.E. George W. Bush, President of the United States of America,
2005 World Summit, High Level Plenary Meeting, September 14, 2005’’, hhttp://
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/09/20050914.htmli.
29. K. J. Holsti, Taming the Sovereigns: Institutional Change in International Politics (Cam-
bridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 316.
13
Baghdad to Baghdad:
The United Kingdom’s odyssey
A. J. R. Groom and Sally Morphet
In the nineteenth century the United Kingdom wished to maintain the vi-
ability of the Ottoman Empire to block the expansion of Russia from the
Black Sea to the Mediterranean. At the same time, the United Kingdom
was gradually establishing control over various political entities in the
Gulf as part of its strategy to safeguard the links with India. The Empire
was crucial in deciding UK policy.
The Ottoman Empire entered World War I in alliance with the central
powers and, as such, was coveted for UK imperial expansion as well as
an enemy.1 A British-led force, mainly of Indian troops, landed in Basra
and fought its way north to Baghdad. Politically, the United Kingdom
combined with the French to dismember parts of the Ottoman Empire
through the Sykes–Picot agreement. The United Kingdom was finally
awarded Palestine, Trans-Jordan and Iraq as Class A mandates of the
League of Nations. Oil was a factor in the case of Iraq, as well as in
neighbouring Iran, and Palestine was to defend the flanks of the Suez Ca-
nal. But all was not well since the UK government had been persuaded
by Zionists to offer a ‘‘national home for the Jews’’ in Palestine. It soon
became clear that this could not be achieved without harming the inter-
ests of the indigenous inhabitants of what was to become Palestine.
In Iraq, matters were not much better. It was made up of three Otto-
man vilayets and there were local aspirations to add a fourth, namely Ku-
wait, which, the British considered, should be a linchpin in the Gulf. Iraq
217
218 A. J. R. GROOM AND SALLY MORPHET
population of the south, who had been brutally crushed by the Iraqi mil-
itary following an uprising at the end of the military operations – in short,
the Kurds were protected and the Shiites were not.
Air patrols in the north continued and were extended to the south by
the United States and the United Kingdom in the 1990s. At this point the
French withdrew from the operation and the P-5 were beginning to split
ever more ominously between the activist British and Americans and the
French, Russians and Chinese. The latter began to see sanctions as much
a part of the problem as of the solution since they were causing immense
hardship to the Iraqi population. The Iraqi regime, on the other hand, was
literally getting rich through sanctions. There were also differing inter-
pretations about the extent to which Iraq had conformed to the draco-
nian requirements for disarmament. The French, Russians and Chinese
were beginning to look to the period beyond the aftermath of the war
and SCR 687, whereas the British and Americans were insistent that Sad-
dam Hussein must complete the requirements in SCR 687 in a cast-iron
manner. Even when Saddam Hussein did move towards fulfilment, it
was not beyond the United States, in particular, to move the goalposts.
The application of the no-fly zone in the south signified the growing iso-
lation of the United Kingdom and the United States.
The no-fly zone reached almost to Baghdad and its purpose was to
make the Iraqi use of air power more difficult because its major bases
were in the south. From 1997 onwards this gave rise to two cat-and-
mouse games between the British and Americans and Saddam Hussein.
First, missiles were launched both as a sign of intent and as a punishment
when the two Western powers considered that there had been major
violations of disarmament procedures. Secondly, UK and US planes de-
stroyed ground installations if the Iraqis adopted ‘‘provocative’’ defen-
sive procedures. These incidents increased in tempo so that by the early
2000s the number of bombs dropped on Iraq was greater than had been
dropped in the Kosovo war. Historical analogies with UK aerial partici-
pation in the 1920s were clearly evident. Thus, as the new Bush adminis-
tration took office in January 2001, Iraq was firmly on the international
agenda for military, political and humanitarian reasons.
The operation to enforce the withdrawal of Iraq from the occupation
and annexation of Kuwait was as near a textbook example of collective
security at work as we are likely to see. It also stimulated a wide range
of activities by the international community, usually through the United
Nations, in a significant range of disputes. These were often of an internal
nature and had flared up after the ending of the Cold War and the disin-
tegration of the Soviet Union. In many of these the United Kingdom
played a major role. The case of Kosovo, in particular, raises important
questions for the intervention in Iraq.3 The operation in Kosovo under-
222 A. J. R. GROOM AND SALLY MORPHET
taken by NATO forces did not have a resolution from the UN Security
Council as a basis. It was therefore illegal, although arguments were
made that the series of resolutions in the Council created a logic that
was not crowned by the equivalent of SCR 678 only because of the likely
obstructionism of Russia and China in the Security Council. Given the
role that Russia played subsequently in ending the Kosovo crisis, it is at
least thinkable that, with more time and better diplomacy, Russia would
have agreed to a Kosovo intervention, in which case China might again
have abstained. This suggests there was a different dynamic in operation.
In 1990 and 1991 there was a clear violation of the UN Charter by Iraq
in an international dispute, whereas in Kosovo there was an internal
dispute in which the disputants were both, according to UN resolutions,
guilty of abuses of human rights and terrorist activities. What is more,
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair gave every indication of being on a mis-
sion to ‘‘get’’ Milosevic.4 It was a clear indication of Blair’s willingness,
as he himself stated later, to disregard certain Security Council resolu-
tions if they did not suit him or were an affront to his values.5 Even if
we are to take the argument that the Security Council was blocked by a
potential veto, there remained the Uniting for Peace Resolution. The
Kosovo question could then have been taken to the General Assembly,
where the necessary two-thirds majority might have provided some of
the legitimacy that was lacking. Moreover, in working for a Uniting for
Peace Resolution, the General Assembly has reasonably tight procedural
rules, so the question would not be a long-drawn-out affair. The General
Assembly cannot, however, authorize force. But, if the United States, the
United Kingdom, France and other NATO allies had failed to get a reso-
lution, then that would surely have been reason to think again about a
policy and the bases upon which it had been built. The significance for
UK policy is that a new proactive, morally driven, obsessed prime minis-
ter got away with it, along with his allies. Conviction politics had proved
to be not only convincing but also effective. The lesson was not lost on a
prime minister who managed to involve the United Kingdom in five wars
in his first six years of office.
cision to go to war in Iraq.’’6 This is reflected in the way that foreign pol-
icy made within the government, with its allies and at the United Nations
was played in Parliament. There are further linkages: policy on Israel/
Palestine and Afghanistan; legal issues; political investigations; military
policy; and opinion polls. These linkages show that, given long-standing
UK involvement in Iraq before and after its independence, and Iraq’s
own complexities, there are many UK perspectives on Iraq and its inter-
nal and external situation both regionally and globally.
The deliberate attack on the World Trade Center in New York and the
Pentagon in Washington on 11 September 2001 just before the plenary
debate in the UN General Assembly (GA), though not a new phenome-
non, powerfully affected the United States. As Nicole Gnesotto has
noted, the US reaction comprised ‘‘urgency, militarisation, and unilater-
alism’’ and the United States ‘‘made the fight against terrorism and the
defence of its homeland absolute priorities’’.7 Freedman suggests that
9/11 ‘‘changed the terms of the security debate by establishing the notion
that potential threats had to be dealt with before they became actual’’.8
Nevertheless, Blair is said, at that time, to have pressed the US admin-
istration not to attack Iraq and to focus on building an alliance against
al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.9 He first visited US
President Bush at Camp David in February 2001, when they discussed
weapons of mass destruction (WMD).10
Despite the resurgence of unilateralism, the United Nations was, as
has often been the case, still used. Two SCRs on terrorism were passed
in the aftermath of the September bombings and Bush spoke to the Gen-
eral Assembly in the November 2001 debate on terrorism, which also
produced a further SCR on a global effort to combat it (all these were
unanimous). The UK government was also influenced by 9/11 and re-
vised its strategy towards the Saddam regime to one in which regime
change became more prominent. Moreover, Bush referred to the ‘‘axis
of evil’’ including Iraq in his State of the Union speech in January 2002.
After Blair’s visit to Bush in Texas in April 2002, he said:
The moment for decision on how to act is not yet with us . . . But to allow WMD
to be developed by a state like Iraq without let or hindrance would be grossly to
ignore the lessons of September 11th and we will not do it. The message to Sad-
dam is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in – anyone, any time, any place
that the international community demands. If necessary, the action should be mil-
itary – and again, if necessary and justified, it should involve regime change.11
224 A. J. R. GROOM AND SALLY MORPHET
Legal issues
In March 2003 the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, stated that the le-
gal grounds for the United Kingdom’s authority to use force against Iraq
existed from the combined effect of SCRs 678, 687 and 1441.19 SCR 678
had authorized force against Iraq and the ceasefire resolution SCR 687
had only suspended SCR 678’s authority. A material breach of SCR 687
existed (as asserted in SCR 1441) because Iraq had not complied with its
obligations to disarm. SCR 1441 had also not been complied with; this
was a further material breach. Thus, authority to use force under SCR
678 had been revived. SCR 1441 had not intended a further SC resolu-
tion to authorize force. All it required was the reporting and discussion
of Iraq’s failures. A similar argument had been used by the UK govern-
ment in the context of US/UK bombing of Iraq in Operation Desert Fox
(1998–99).20 The case made above was accepted by only a minority of
UK legal experts.21 The detailed advice to the government given by the
Attorney General, a close friend of the Prime Minister, has not been
revealed.
The Attorney General subsequently advised (on 26 March 2003) of the
need for Security Council authorization for the coalition or the interna-
tional community to establish an interim Iraqi administration to reform
BAGHDAD TO BAGHDAD: THE UK’S ODYSSEY 227
and restructure Iraq and its administration.22 Iraq had become an amal-
gam of moral, political and legal argument. The Foreign and Common-
wealth Office had been shaken by the resignation of the deputy legal ad-
viser, Elizabeth Wilmshurst, a few days earlier. A previous legal adviser,
Sir Frank Berman, has subsequently argued that the Blair government’s
action was illegal. Berman notes: ‘‘At the level of theory, a truly perpet-
ual authorization to resort to force at the option of the authorized party
would appear to be indistinguishable from the delegation away, if only
in part, of the Council’s ‘primary responsibility’ under Article 24 of the
Charter.’’23
The essential concern of Lord Goldsmith’s case was Saddam Hussein’s
possible non-compliance with the disarmament clauses of SCR 687 and
his hindrance of full and complete inspection procedures – not regime
change. There is a difference, too, between SCR 678, which stressed that
‘‘all necessary means’’ would be used if Iraq failed to comply with certain
resolutions before 15 January, and SCR 1441, which used the phrase
‘‘serious consequences’’, with the possible implication that the Security
Council might move on to ‘‘all necessary means’’ in the event of Iraq’s
non-compliance. This would depend on Blix’s investigations and report
to the Council. Many considered there was a need for a second Security
Council resolution – the Blair government saw this only as desirable. The
PM’s Private Secretary wrote to Goldsmith on 15 March 2003 on the
question of the existence of hard evidence of Saddam Hussein’s non-
compliance with SCRs 687 and 1441. He stated, ‘‘it is indeed the Prime
Minister’s unequivocal view that Iraq is in further material breach of its
obligations, as in operative paragraph four of UN SCR 1441’’,24 despite
the fact (see below) that the Joint Intelligence Committee made no as-
sessments of the Iraqi declaration after 18 December 2002. It would have
been useful to know what aspects of this wide-ranging paragraph the
Prime Minister thought were breached by Iraq: certainly Saddam Hus-
sein’s claim that he had no weapons of mass destruction was almost cer-
tainly correct.
Political investigations
under Resolution 1441, the JIC made no further assessment of the Iraqi
declaration beyond its ‘Initial Assessment’ provided on 18 December
[2002]’’.25
The House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs con-
cluded, following the bombing of the UK consulate in Istanbul in Novem-
ber 2003, ‘‘that the threats facing the United Kingdom, both at home and
overseas, in the war against terrorism have not diminished’’. In particu-
lar, ‘‘the war in Iraq has possibly made terrorist attacks against UK na-
tionals and UK interests more likely in the short term’’.26 Blair’s period
in office will be indelibly marked by the Iraqi affairs.
Military policy
The Ministry of Defence and the Prime Minister’s office are said to have
been at odds about the question of when to deploy UK troops, which ar-
rived in the Gulf later than their US counterparts.27 The former thought
that earlier deployment would put more pressure on Saddam; the latter
considered it might add to the opposition to the war in the United King-
dom. However, it was made abundantly clear by the UK military at the
highest level that before they entered into military action they required
cover both politically and legally. Politically, it was now necessary to
have the agreement of the House of Commons to military action and for
the action itself to be legal. As Air Marshal Sir Timothy Garden com-
mented, ‘‘and this isn’t just niceties anymore, of course, because now
with the International Criminal Court a reality and the UK signed up to
it, there is a need for UK military, particularly senior commanders, to be
assured that what they are doing is covered’’.28 They also need to be
aware of the European Court of Human Rights. Abuses by UK soldiers
of prisoners held under UK custody make these soldiers ultimately liable
at both national and European levels.
A military imperative influenced events because of UK troops’ diffi-
culty in operating at full capacity and efficiency with the onset of summer
heat. It became urgent to push Blix aside in order to deploy troops at an
appropriate time. Moreover, many of the armed forces were reservists
and to keep them in this high state of readiness away from home for
long periods was politically damaging. Moreover, withdrawal would have
handed Saddam Hussein a political victory and created a hole in US war
plans at the last minute, thus aggravating the loss of the northern front
because of Turkey’s refusal to join the coalition. In the actual war, the
UK contingent performed their tasks with reasonable efficiency although
there was a string of complaints about the inappropriate supply of equip-
ment and also about its reliability. As the UK contingent settled into the
routine of pacification and peacekeeping in the Basra area, charges of
BAGHDAD TO BAGHDAD: THE UK’S ODYSSEY 229
abuse by UK troops were made – these are now going through legal
processes.
Opinion polls
Conclusions
States to return to the framework of the United Nations, but this was
only temporary. Nevertheless the problem has, once again, gone back to
the United Nations through the need for international cooperation and
UN legitimacy.
Blair had little political support among his colleagues for his Iraq pol-
icy. It would be fascinating to know whether he ever considered follow-
ing Prime Minister Wilson’s course over Viet Nam – that is, no military
involvement. It has been widely bruited about that Foreign Secretary
Straw had many misgivings. Defence Secretary Hoon was close to Blair,
whereas Robin Cook and Clare Short both resigned. Other heavyweights
such as Brown and Blunkett kept a very low profile on the issue of Iraq
and only the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, could be trusted to sup-
port Blair, perhaps on the basis more of personal friendship than of legal
conviction, although this is speculation. Nevertheless, despite resigna-
tions from the Cabinet and muted support from the rest, despite a di-
vided political party and despite a largely hostile public opinion, Blair
continued. Whatever the cost, the United Kingdom is now back in Bagh-
dad, if only in the green zone, but there is no hint of an exit strategy
other than the establishment of ‘‘democracy’’ in Iraq.
Blair seems to pursue a two-level policy. At one level he wishes to
share in global management with the United States. He has embraced
what General de Gaulle always suspected of the British, that they would
choose the grand large over a full commitment to European questions.
Yet, at another level, Blair is committed to the United Kingdom being at
the heart of Europe. However, his policy on one makes the other more
difficult and the split between the United Kingdom, on the one hand,
and France and Germany (not to mention Russia and China), on the
other, is clear. The United Kingdom has moved more into the European
framework because of this split, particularly regarding European inde-
pendence in defence matters, even in the face of stiff US opposition.33
Blair, like many others, takes a Western view of the Middle East, one
that is closely allied to that of the US neoconservatives. He accepts that
Israel, a nuclear power unharried by the West, should maintain many of
its policies over Palestine and that it should add even more land to the 78
per cent it has occupied since 1948. He shares his oscillating views on the
rule of law with his Israeli counterparts. The non-aligned states see this
differently. At their summit in Kuala Lumpur in February 2003, they, as
always, reiterated their support for the Palestine people and recalled that
in 1948 more than half were uprooted and forced to live as refugees.
They recalled Israel’s foreign occupation of the remainder of Occupied
Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem since 1967. They noted
that the occupying power had systematically established and expanded
settlements, reflecting a new and special form of settler colonialism. The
BAGHDAD TO BAGHDAD: THE UK’S ODYSSEY 231
US entry into Iraq was predicated on the security needs of Israel.34 Al-
though many Western governments find it difficult to take this seriously,
the need for real justice for the Palestinians unites the global South be-
yond its Arab and Islamic states. Perhaps Blair will recognize this in his
forthcoming conference with the Palestinians in London or is this just
doing Bush and Sharon’s work of disciplining the new leadership to US–
Israeli policy imperatives?
There is also the question of economic costs. Iraqi debts to the United
Kingdom are, fortunately, modest. The United Kingdom is far behind Ja-
pan, Russia, France, Germany, Italy and the United States, to whom the
Iraqis are most indebted. For them it is a question of billions, whereas for
the United Kingdom it is a question of millions.35 Nevertheless, the eco-
nomic cost of the war is significant and victory was only an economic and
political down payment. The United Kingdom is faced with continuing in-
stalments of the cost of the occupation in what is really a second phase of
the war. Moreover, the United Kingdom has not done well in gaining
contracts, except, perhaps, in the slightly dubious area of security firms
supplying personnel, who are, in effect, mercenaries.
The disenchanted UK public are not only concerned about the
economic costs. They are losing trust in the political system. The UK
public were strongly against the government’s policy, and they have been
ignored. This contributes significantly to the erosion of the legitimacy of
the political system that is evident in many mature democracies where
people consider that the electoral system is fair but that governments
ignore their wishes once in office. Like Bush, Blair was able to push
through his policies because there was no structured internal opposition.
In the House of Commons, the main opposition was within the Labour
Party since the Conservatives, who themselves were in disarray, largely
supported Blair, and the only party that was strongly opposed to him
was the Liberal Democrats. As a result, it was Blair versus the differing
perspectives of the UK people, and the people so far have lost. The con-
sequence is that, for the time being, the United Kingdom is firmly up the
creek without a paddle.
Notes
1. For the history of Iraq, consult Christopher Catherwood, Winston’s Folly: Imperialism
and the Creation of Modern Iraq (London: Constable, 2004); Toby Dodge, Inventing
Iraq: The Failure of Nation Building and a History Denied (London: Hurst, 2003); S. H.
Longrigg, Iraq, 1900 to 1950 (London: Oxford University Press, 1956); Pierre-Jean Lui-
zard, La formation de l’Irak contemporain (Paris: Editions du CNRS, 1991); P. Sluglett,
Britain in Iraq, 1914–1932 (London: Ithaca Press, 1976); Charles Tripp, A History of
Iraq (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
232 A. J. R. GROOM AND SALLY MORPHET
Throughout the unfolding of the Iraq crisis in the early 2000s, France has
been portrayed as an unrepentant anti-US country, a partisan of the sta-
tus quo, a supporter of multilateral institutions and the international rule
of law, and even, at times, a pacifist nation. Depending on the observer,
the French stance on the issue has been regarded as irritating (indeed,
deeply irritating for Washington) or commendable. As a result, two dia-
metrically opposed images of France have emerged. One, which has been
particularly virulent in the US media, has simply led to the vilification of
France and its portrayal as either a traitor or a coward; the other has pic-
tured France as a defender of the United Nations, international peace
and international legitimacy. This black and white portrait does not
match reality. The truth stands somewhere between these two extremes.
This chapter aims at providing an explanation of the French opposition
to the war against Iraq in winter 2002 and spring 2003. In order to do so,
we stress the fact that the 2002–2003 stalemate between France and the
United States (and the United Kingdom) was not a one-off but, rather, is
part of long-term trends and tendencies in French foreign policy. We
therefore begin by outlining the core characteristics of French foreign
policy. We then explain how the reasons at the heart of the French oppo-
sition to the war against Iraq, although neither totally egoistic nor com-
pletely altruistic, are part and parcel of its strategic vision of the world
and the Middle East. Finally, we evaluate France’s current position vis-
à-vis Iraq, the Middle East and the United States, and touch upon how
it is likely to evolve in the near future.
234
EXPLAINING FRANCE’S OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQ WAR 235
At the heart of French foreign policy are three basic elements: the
national interest, an international projection of influence, and a commit-
ment to the international order via a balance of power and the interna-
tional rule of law. This, and especially the last element, leads French for-
eign policy to understand multilateralism in terms of multipolarity.
The primacy of national interest is the single most important factor.
Like any other country, France has two major goals in the pursuit of its
national interest: it tries to secure as many guarantees as possible to pre-
serve its existence, nationally and internationally; and it seeks to define
and bend the terms and modalities of its relations with other nations in
ways favourable to its interest.1
The second characteristic of French foreign policy, the international
projection of influence, has to be understood in connection with the fact
that, for France, the time is long gone when it could envision its projec-
tion of power beyond borders as part of a hegemonic agenda – regional
or global. No longer being able to shape the world, France has adopted
the medium of influence as a second best to try to continue to have an
international impact.
Not losing sight of the political, geopolitical, economic and security
needs associated with its national interest, France seeks to have interna-
tional influence by focusing on those regions in which it still counts. In
this respect, the construction of the European community has increas-
ingly become an essential concern for France since the 1960s.2 Lately,
this European focus has included following closely not only the evolution
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) but also the emer-
gence, since the signature in Maastricht in 1993 of the Treaty on Euro-
pean Union, of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).
Beyond Europe, there are three other regions in which French foreign
policy seeks to have a special influence: West Africa, North Africa and
the Middle East. In West Africa and North Africa, France remains a sig-
nificant actor (probably more in West Africa than in North Africa), able
to be a decisive factor in many situations. In the Middle East, on the
other hand, its influence, while continuing to be important, is more intan-
gible. France has strategic (oil), commercial3 and some military4 interests
236 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
in the region. However, its leverage in the Middle East is not comparable
to its leverage in the regions where it exercises a prime influence.
The third element of permanence in French foreign policy is a commit-
ment to multilateralism as a way of promoting a multipolar world and
the politics of collective security that the United Nations represents. The
French commitment to the United Nations, multilateralism and multipo-
larity cannot be separated from its equally important support for the bal-
ance of power. As a matter of fact, these elements have come to work to-
gether in French diplomacy.
Using the balance of power as a way to mitigate or hamper the over-
whelming power of one country over others, in Europe or globally, has
been one of the key concerns of France’s diplomacy of the post–World
War II era.5 French presidents, starting with General de Gaulle and
continuing with Georges Pompidou, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, François
Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac, have all, regardless of their political affil-
iation and beyond at times notable foreign policy differences, borne in
mind the need to balance the global weight of superpowers. In times of
bipolarity such as during the Cold War, France adopted a ‘‘middle of
the road’’ position between the Soviet Union and the United States,
while being at heart a close ally to the United States. Today, although
continuing to see itself as a natural ally of the United States, it is eager
to keep US power in check.
France initially approached multilateralism and the United Nations
with scepticism, but over time its inclination to endorse multipolarity has
worked hand in hand with a plea for multilateralism as well as for inter-
national security management via the United Nations. France’s support
for multipolarity and multilateralism became as much a matter of prin-
ciple (with an international system in which agreed-upon regulations and
initiatives play a significant role) as a question of realpolitik.6 Moreover,
the centrality of the Security Council gave France an international power
that it could no longer claim on its own.7
French public and the world at large that the international community
was going the extra mile to avoid war. What all of this meant, however,
was that the divergence of views between France and the United States
(and the United Kingdom) was likely to create problems down the road
over the threshold for compliance, how it should be interpreted and how
the international community should act in the event of disagreement.
This is exactly what happened.
Deep differences soon emerged in the interpretation of the text of Res-
olution 1441 regarding whether it authorized UN member states to use
force against Iraq.14 The French position was that Resolution 1441 did
not contain the signal words ‘‘use all necessary means’’ which have tradi-
tionally been considered vital to a Security Council authorization of
the use of force.15 This interpretation was supported by the fact that rep-
resentatives of all the members of the Security Council, including the
United States and the United Kingdom, had publicly confirmed, at the
time of its adoption, that Resolution 1441 contained no ‘‘hidden triggers’’
or ‘‘automaticity’’ with respect to the use of force.16 But this did not ex-
clude the United States from also envisioning acting unilaterally if it saw
fit.17
Between December 2002 and March 2003, the accumulated evidence
could not demonstrate in absolute terms the existence of weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq. Yet the Bush administration and
Blair’s government were adamant about going to war, no matter what.18
And the more eager the United States and the United Kingdom were to
act, the less France was willing to compromise and the more it became
opposed to war. What had been envisaged by President Chirac as a pos-
sibility (the use of force) in the autumn of 2002 became an impossibility
in March 2003. Ultimately, France gave more credit to Hans Blix and his
inspectors’ point of view than to the White House and Downing Street.
The French government was not disputing the horrific nature of Saddam
Hussein’s regime. It simply felt that war against Iraq was not justified on
the grounds of weapons of mass destruction.
In the end, France could not be convinced to give its support to a sec-
ond resolution of the Security Council that would have justified the mili-
tary intervention in Iraq. After it became clear that the second resolution
would not get a majority, not to mention the French (and possibly Rus-
sian) veto, the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain decided to
withdraw the draft.
Because of France’s opposition, the war began two days later, on 20
March 2003, without UN authorization. In the aftermath of the war cam-
paign, the French position remained the same: the war against Iraq was
neither legal (it did not conform to international law) nor legitimate (it
was based on shaky justifications).
240 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
The way in which the essentials of French foreign policy came together
with the specific issues at the centre of the Iraq crisis is crucial for ex-
plaining, and understanding, France’s opposition to the war against Iraq.
This exercise identifies four explanatory factors: the support given by
France to Iraq throughout the 1990s; the French vision of a multipolar
and multilateral world; the French view on the use of force in Iraq and
the Middle East; and France’s assessment of the threat represented by
Iraq and terrorism in general.
The French opposition to the war should not have come as a surprise
to the United States and the United Kingdom. It echoed what had been
the attitude of France vis-à-vis Iraq since the end of the first Gulf war.
Throughout the 1990s France was indeed quite supportive of Baghdad.
In particular, over time France moved to a position in favour of the eas-
ing, if not the lifting, of the UN sanctions against Iraq.19 This stood in
sharp contrast to the US and UK positions, which were eager to nail
Saddam Hussein’s regime as much as possible.
The relatively lenient French position towards Iraq in the aftermath
of the first Gulf war was principally fuelled by three considerations. First,
France was willing to give Saddam Hussein the benefit of the doubt. This
was in line with its longstanding support of his secular regime, which was
a continuation of the strong links that France had cultivated with Bagh-
dad since the 1970s, in part based on its somewhat republican nationalist
ideology.20 Second, there was the genuine belief that the UN sanctions
were hurting Iraqi civilians far more than was Saddam Hussein’s re-
gime.21 In this regard, Paris felt that, although the sanctions were crip-
pling Saddam Hussein’s efforts to rearm, there was no doubt that they
were also worsening the already very low standards of living of ordinary
Iraqis.22 A third consideration was French economic interests in Iraq.
These interests broke down into four elements: France’s oil dependency
on Iraq; the Oil-for-Food programme; oil concessions; and accumulated
debt. As we are about to see, these considerations were not as important
as is usually assumed.
French dependence on Iraqi oil, although significant, was far from be-
ing critical. In the early 2000s, France’s imports of oil came primarily from
Saudi Arabia (18.4 per cent), Norway (18.2 per cent), the United King-
dom (15.8 per cent), Iraq (8.9 per cent) and Iran (8.3 per cent).23 Thus,
although three of the five main providers of oil were Middle Eastern
EXPLAINING FRANCE’S OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQ WAR 241
countries – Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran – accounting for 35.6 per cent of
French oil imports, Iraq was only the fourth provider.
The contracts obtained by France through the UN Oil-for-Food pro-
gramme starting in the second half of the 1990s were another aspect
of French economic interests in Iraq.24 Certainly, oil-for-food contracts
went largely to France for a while. But in this area too the French inter-
ests should not be overstated. In 2001, France ranked eleventh in terms
of these contracts, behind Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the United Arab Emir-
ates, Turkey, Russia, China and India.25
The potentially lucrative oil concessions that would be granted to
French companies should sanctions be lifted were another reason for
France to want to proceed carefully with Saddam Hussein’s regime. A
final concern was the some US$5 billion debt accumulated by Baghdad
over the years.
Needless to say, the fact that the Bush administration did not say
what attitude it would adopt after the war on some of these issues
(for instance, whether or not the Iraqi debts would be honoured), and
whether or not France (and Russia) would be allowed to participate in
the reconstruction of Iraq, did not encourage Paris to share the US and
UK enthusiasm for war.
Contrary to what Robert Kagan seems to argue, France does not shy
away from the use of force when it deems it necessary.26 Nor does it hes-
itate to deploy troops abroad. In 2004, for example, more than 40,000
French troops were stationed outside of mainland France, including
15,000 deployed under a national, European, UN or international
mandate.27
Against this background, France did not entirely exclude, as a matter
of principle, war as an option in the context of the Iraqi crisis. But, short
of clear evidence of a threat, the US eagerness to launch a war against
Baghdad was bound to make Paris uncomfortable. It was at odds with
its favoured vision of a multipolar and multilateral world order in which
the United States, while having a pre-eminent role, would still be con-
strained by international rules.
As the crisis unfolded within the UN Security Council, China and Rus-
sia failed to take the lead in challenging the United States and the United
Kingdom, and France’s emergence as the only real counter-voice was very
much to its liking.28 It demonstrated France’s power of influence and also
allowed it to mount a defence and illustration of its multipolar and multi-
lateral vision of the world.
242 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
France and the use of force in Iraq and the Middle East
For France, the Middle East is a powder keg and one should tread with
caution in order to preserve the stability of the region. In addition, the
French view is that a cut and dried approach to the numerous problems
and challenges facing the Middle East is counterproductive. Moreover,
before the war, the French leadership continued to think that the central
issue in the region was not Iraq but the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.29
France was therefore deeply concerned about the prospect of using force
in Iraq.
The use of force did not seem the best way to address the problems on
the ground. In particular, French decision makers were highly sceptical
that a regime change imposed from the outside would lead to a stable re-
gime or that international security in the Middle East could be secured
by war. Although no one in France really mourned the prospect of the
fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial regime, the French government
sensed that the Bush administration did not have a clear vision of what a
post-Saddam Iraq would look like. As a former colonial power that had
experienced failed attempts to govern countries from afar, France was
doubtful that the United States, or anyone else for that matter, could suc-
cessfully govern Iraq with a large occupation force.30 France feared also
that in the absence of such a military force, once war had taken place, a
quick handover of authority to a new implanted Iraqi regime could fail,
leading to internal conflicts over resources, ethnic and clan reprisals, if
not intervention by a number of Iraq’s neighbours. Post-invasion chaos
could then constitute a fertile ground for terrorists.
To a certain extent, the French government was worried as well by the
fact that an intervention in Iraq, particularly if it led to widespread Arab
civilian deaths, could have spillover effects in France. It could provoke
unrest among France’s 4–6 million strong Muslim population (nearly 10
per cent of the population) and be exploited by fundamentalists. France
did not want to give the Muslim world the impression that the ‘‘West’’ is
opposed to ‘‘Islam’’.31 It wanted to project an alternative vision of the
West to the Arab and Muslim populations in the Middle East but also in
Europe.
A final factor accounting for the French reluctance to go along with the
United States and the United Kingdom was that France simply did not
believe that Iraq and its alleged links with terrorism were much of
a threat, regionally or globally. By the winter of 2002–2003 France had
by and large come to the conclusion that the disarmament policies con-
EXPLAINING FRANCE’S OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQ WAR 243
ducted under the UN inspection regime during the 1990s had worked: the
Iraqi army had been reduced to about half its previous size; its conven-
tional weapons were out of date; its missiles had been used and not re-
placed; and most of its arsenal of mass destruction had been destroyed
by UN inspectors and various bombing campaigns.
In addition, it was clear to France that Saddam Hussein’s regime was
not popular. In the north of the country, the Kurds were in almost open
revolt; in the south, the Shiite majority had long resented its exclusion
from government. This made the Iraqi regime all the weaker internally
and not in a position to be a major danger externally.
Furthermore, the French government thought that the links that the
Bush administration claimed existed between al-Qaeda and Saddam’s re-
gime had no credibility. In this regard, the lack of evidence of terrorist
activities in Iraq or of links with transnational terrorist organizations
played into the hands of France’s rather relaxed conception of the terror-
ist threat.32 In France, as in other European countries, there was no sense
of paranoia about terrorism and its Middle Eastern (and Iraqi) origins.
Paris went along with the war against terrorism after the attacks of 11
September 2001; it was concerned about possible terrorist attacks; but it
did not give them primary importance.33
On all these issues, the position of the French government was ulti-
mately very much in tune with national public opinion.34
France proved itself expert at opposing the United States. But, overall, it
is tempting to think that it failed to put forward a credible alternative to
the course of action recommended by the United States and the United
Kingdom vis-à-vis Iraq. It was all part of a pattern.
By the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s, it was clear that the sanc-
tions regime and the no-fly zones imposed on Iraq could not last forever.
Something had to be done. Moreover, the repressive nature of the re-
gime, Saddam Hussein’s propensity for aggressive behaviour internation-
ally and his unwillingness to change his ways made it rather inconceiv-
244 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
able to endorse the idea that he should remain in power. Yet, by simply
favouring the easing and lifting of UN sanctions, France could not help
but give the impression that it wanted to go back to ‘‘business as usual’’.
Later on, in the last months of 2002, the only reason the UN weapons
inspectors had been allowed back into Iraq had been the pressure exer-
cised by the United States at the UN headquarters and the fact that it
had positioned its troops outside Iraq’s borders. Rather disingenuously,
France did not really give credit to Washington for this. Choosing to fo-
cus on those aspects of the Bush foreign policy that it saw as unpalatable
and dangerous, France essentially limited itself to asking the United
States to restrain its aggressiveness.
Finally, had Saddam Hussein managed to have the UN inspections
drag on in 2003 with no decisive action taken by the international com-
munity (which was probably his intention), France was not in a position
to use force. It had made no preparation for the deployment of troops in
the event that the use of force became necessary. Not being able to act
rapidly, it would have had to rely on US power.
All this showed that, as the crisis unfolded and was approaching its
‘‘dénouement’’, France did not have a systematic alternative game plan
for Iraq, with all the possible options envisioned, covered and prepared
for. That was all the more unfortunate considering that, beyond opposing
the US and UK urge to attack, there was a desperate need for a convinc-
ing, workable and reconstruction-oriented ‘‘plan B’’ for Iraq – one that
would have triggered change in the country and the region while avoid-
ing the launching of a full-scale war.
In its own way, the Iraq crisis thus epitomized the French reticence
about change. For all its declared support for progressive values and calls
for a more just international system, France tends towards the status quo.
The main arena in which it can be considered a key promoter of change
is the European one. Along with Germany, France has indeed proved
to be a critical actor in the evolution of the European Union. It is at this
level that it has focused its attention and exercised much of its muscle.
But this is balanced by some reluctance to push forcefully for systemic
change in the global realm.
France now lacks the political clout to engineer and see through
sweeping changes in the international landscape that would be in line
both with its national interest and with its preferred vision of the world.
It is therefore inclined to stick to a conservative course (or to lean to-
wards modest if not piecemeal global change). In the European theatre,
this helps to explain why France was sceptical about the rapid disman-
tling of the Soviet Union and its European zones of influence, and about
German reunification, and why it did not favour the breakup of the Fed-
eral Republic of Yugoslavia or the enlargement of NATO.35
EXPLAINING FRANCE’S OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQ WAR 245
The aftermath of the Iraq war has been a bit of a rollercoaster for
France. The more the situation in Iraq fulfilled the doomsayers’ predic-
tions, the more France’s calls for prudence about going to war were vin-
dicated. The more the situation seemed to unfold in line with the most
optimistic of US plans, the more France’s position was proven wrong.
After the United States had flatly rejected France’s recommendation
for strong involvement by the United Nations in the management of
post-conflict Iraq, France made a point of refusing any deployment of its
troops to help the Americans to contain the Iraqi insurgency. To be sure,
the relatively successful election of 30 January 2005 put the French gov-
ernment in an awkward situation. France was caught between grudging
acceptance of the poll and lingering indignation over how it came about.
But the continued inability of the United States to bring security to Iraq
and the proliferation of terrorist attacks are confirming the warnings ex-
pressed by France about the dangers of war.
The chances are that in the future the French attitude towards Iraq, the
Middle East and the United States will be that, while continuing to give
priority to solving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict by advocating Palesti-
nian rights, France will not oppose US efforts in Iraq in order to improve
the situation of the Iraqi people over time.36 Favouring the preservation
of the territorial integrity of Iraq and ensuring that its three main com-
munities – Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds – are able to live together is part of
this agenda. However, although France will support the United States, it
will do all it can to hamper US efforts to build a stronghold in Iraq and an
even stronger one in the region, with a view to providing a counter-
balance to the US approach to the Arab world and terrorism as well as
to defending its oil interests.
In the end, Paris will make efforts to bury past differences. Neverthe-
less, we have not seen the last of the tensions, distrust and suspicion be-
tween France and the United States over Iraq and the Middle East.37
Notes
1. See Lucien Poirier, La crise des fondements (Paris: Economica, 1994), Part I in
particular.
2. See, for example, Frédéric Bozo, La France et l’Alliance Atlantique depuis la fin de la
guerre froide. Le Modèle gaullien en question (1989–1999), Cahier No. 17 (Paris: Cahiers
du Centre d’Etudes d’Histoire de la Défense, 2001).
3. France’s commercial exchanges with the countries of the Middle East are quite marginal
compared with the overall volume of French trade.
4. France is not under any massive military threat from the Middle East.
246 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
5. Before the twentieth century, the balance of power (along with the quest for continental
hegemony) was one of the defining elements of French foreign policy.
6. See Thierry Tardy, ‘‘France and the US. The Inevitable Clash?’’, International Journal,
Vol. 59, No. 1 (Winter 2003–2004). Also, for a good explanation of what a multipolar
international order means to French foreign policy see ‘‘Un après-guerre sans guerre:
Nouvel ordre ou désordre internationale?’’, La France et le monde, AFRI – Annuaire
Français de relations internationales (Paris: Editions Bruylant, 2000).
7. Wherever and whenever its interests are at stake and its power permits, France does not
shy away from acting against UN principles. France’s poor track record in Africa is one
example among many of its foreign policy realism, and of the limits of its international-
ism and solidarism. The minor place assigned to human rights issues in French foreign
policy as a whole is another example.
8. Refer in particular to Article 5 of the Constitution, hhttp://www.conseil-constitutionel.fr/
textes/constit.htmi.
9. Rapport au Parlement sur les exportations d’armement de la France en 2002 et 2003, Min-
istry of Defence, Paris, 28 January 2005, hhttp://www.defense.gouv.fr/portal_repository/
817696033__0002/fichier/getData?_&ispopup=1i.
10. In the United States, recent examples of this phenomenon are General Colin Powell as
Secretary of State in the Bush administration and General Wesley Clark, former Su-
preme Allied Commander of NATO, running for President in the 2004 Democratic pri-
maries. In Russia, the key role of the army is linked to its communist past but has also
come to the foreground recently with the war in Chechnya. See, for instance, Dmitri V.
Trenin and Aleksei V. Malashenko, with Anatol Lieven, Russia’s Restless Frontier. The
Chechnya Factor in Post-Soviet Russia (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for In-
ternational Peace, 2004). For China, see David Shambaugh, Modernizing China’s Mili-
tary. Progress, Problems, and Prospects (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press,
2004), and Chinese Military Power. Report of an Independent Task Force (Washington,
DC: Council on Foreign Relations, 2003).
11. Opening speech by Dominique de Villepin at the 10th Conference of Ambassadors,
Paris, Centre des Conférences Internationales, 27 August 2002, hhttp://www.info-france-
usa.org/news/statmnts/2002/villepin82702.aspi. See also Dominique de Villepin, Toward
a New World (translated from French, Hoboken, NJ: Melville House Publishing, 2004).
12. See, for example, the press conference given by President Chirac on 20 October 2002,
on the occasion of the 9th Heads of State Francophone Summit in Beirut, hhttp://
www.elysee.fr/pres/iraq/ext201002b.htmi.
13. See the remarks of the French Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Jean-
David Levitte, following the adoption of Resolution 1441 on 8 November 2002 (UN
Doc. S/PV.4644, 8 November 2002, p. 5).
14. For an interesting analysis of the debates around the interpretation of Security Council
Resolution 1441, refer to Michael Byers, ‘‘Agreeing to Disagree: Security Council Res-
olution 1441 and Intentional Ambiguity’’, in Global Governance. A Review of Multilat-
eralism and International Organizations (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, in cooperation
with ACUNS and the United Nations University), Vol. 10, No. 2 (April–June 2004).
For more on the issues of drafting and interpreting UN Security Council resolutions in
the post–Cold War context, see Jean-Marc Coicaud, Beyond the National Interest
(Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, forthcoming 2006), Chapter 3.
15. Paragraph 13 of Resolution 1441 mentions only that ‘‘the Council has repeatedly
warned Iraq that it will face serious consequences as a result of its continued violations
of its obligations’’. See UN Security Council Resolution 1441, UN Doc. S/RES/1441
(2002), 8 November 2002.
16. Refer in particular to the statement of the US Permanent Representative to the United
EXPLAINING FRANCE’S OPPOSITION TO THE IRAQ WAR 247
Nations, John Negroponte, on 8 November 2002: ‘‘As we have said on numerous occa-
sions to Council members, this resolution contains no ‘hidden triggers’ and no ‘automa-
ticity’ with respect to the use of force. If there is a further Iraqi breach, reported to the
Council by UNMOVIC, the IAEA, or a Member State, the matter will return to the
Council for discussions as required in paragraph 12’’ (UN Doc. S/PV.4644, p. 3).
17. John Negroponte again: ‘‘The resolution makes clear that any Iraqi failure to comply is
unacceptable and that Iraq must be disarmed. And, one way or another, Iraq will be
disarmed. If the Security Council fails to act decisively in the event of further Iraqi vio-
lations, this resolution does not constrain any Member State from acting to defend itself
against the threat posed by Iraq or to enforce relevant United Nations resolutions and
protect world peace and security’’ (UN Doc. S/PV.4644, p. 3).
18. For the attitude of the Bush administration, see Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New
York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), and Stefan Halper and Jonathan Clarke, America
Alone. The Neo-Conservatives and the Global Order (Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2004), Chapter 4, for example. For the United Kingdom, refer to John Kampfner,
Blair’s Wars (London: Free Press, 2004).
19. On UN sanctions against Iraq in general, see for instance Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Iraq:
Time for a Modified Approach, Policy Brief No. 71 (Washington, DC: Brookings Insti-
tution, February 2001). For the French position on sanctions, refer for example to Les
propositions françaises pour l’Iraq, 25 August 1999, hhttp://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/
actual/dossiers/iraq/index.htmli, or Intervention publique du représentant permanent de
la France aux Nations Unies, New York, 26 June 2001, hhttp://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/
actual/dossiers/iraq2/iraq260601.htmli.
20. Dominique Moı̈si, ‘‘Iraq’’, in Richard N. Haass, Transatlantic Tension: The United
States, Europe, and Problem Countries (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press,
1999); Georges Corm, Le Proche-Orient éclaté – II. Mirages de paix et blocages identi-
taires 1990–1996 (Paris: Editions la Découverte, 1997), pp. 35 and 55, for example. See
also Jean-Pierre Chevènement, Le vert et le noir: Intégrisme, pétrole, dollars (Paris:
Grasset, 1995). On 29 January 1991, Jean-Pierre Chevènement, at the time minister of
national defence in the socialist government, offered his resignation to mark his opposi-
tion to the war against Iraq.
21. See, for example, the interview of the French minister of foreign affairs, Hubert Vé-
drine, with Al Hayat, 1 August 2000, hhttp://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/actual/dossiers/
iraq2/vedrinealhayat.htmli.
22. On the effect of sanctions on the humanitarian situation in Iraq, refer also to David
Rieff, ‘‘Were Sanctions Right?’’, New York Times, 27 July 2003.
23. These figures represented 1.9 million barrels per day of France’s approximately 2
million barrels per day consumption. See France Energy Profile, February 2002, hhttp://
www.sce.doc.gov/documents/market_briefs/energy/pdf/france.pdfi. See also Jacques
Beltran, ‘‘French Policy toward Iraq’’, US-France Analysis Series (Washington, DC:
Brookings Institution, September 2002).
24. For an analysis of the Oil-for-Food programme, see for instance Paul A. Volker,
Richard J. Goldstone and Mark Pieth, Independent Inquiry Committee. The United
Nations Oil-for-Food Programme, Interim Report, 3 February 2005, Part II, Chapter 2
in particular, hhttp://www.iic-offp.orgi.
25. Beltran, ‘‘French Policy toward Iraq’’.
26. Robert Kagan, ‘‘Power and Weakness’’, Policy Review, No. 113 (June 2002), hhttp://
www.policyreview.org/JUN02/kagan_print.htmli.
27. For further information, please refer to the website of the French defence ministry,
hhttp://www.defense.gouv.fr/emai. The actions of French troops in Côte d’Ivoire also
made the headlines in 2004.
248 JEAN-MARC COICAUD ET AL.
28. Lilia Shevtsova is misled when she argues in Putin’s Russia (Washington, DC: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 2003, p. 265): ‘‘I believe that Moscow – and not
Paris, as many felt – played the determining role in deepening the schism in NATO by
its choice in early 2003. I am convinced that if Putin have behaved like the Chinese lead-
ers on the Iraq question – that is, taking a wait-and-see position – Jacques Chirac would
not have been so active in his opposition’’.
29. France has been a long-time advocate of the existence of a Palestinian state alongside
the Israeli state.
30. Gilles Kepel, The War for Muslim Minds: Islam and the West (Cambridge, MA: Belknap
Press of Harvard University Press, 2004).
31. Stanley Hoffmann, ‘‘Out of Iraq’’, New York Review of Books, 21 October 2004.
32. There are four reasons for this. First, France does not see itself as particularly targeted.
Second, France’s foreign policy is not about trying to achieve absolute security against
external threats, because France does not think that absolute security (the total absence
of external threats) is either achievable or something to wish for. This attitude could be
called ‘‘insecurity tolerance’’. Third, France does not believe that a foreign policy of
military intervention is essential to ending terrorism. It is more inclined to think that
the answer is to address the root causes of terrorism. Fourth, France is wary of giving
the Arab masses the impression that the West is adopting policies of force. In its view,
such policies are likely further to fuel their sense of historical humiliation. Moreover,
the fact that Arab populations resent most of their local political leaders does not
mean that they are eager to embrace foreign troops.
33. See, for example, Stephen F. Szabo, Parting Ways. The Crisis in German–American Re-
lations (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004), pp. 67–74. For more infor-
mation on the French perspective see Marc Perelman, ‘‘How the French Fight Terror’’,
Foreign Policy, Web Exclusive, posted January 2006, hwww.foreignpolicy.com/story/
cms.php?story_id=3353i.
34. ‘‘La Guerre en Irak inquiète les Français’’, poll conducted by Ipsos for Le Monde and
TF1 on 28 and 29 March 2003 among a representative sample of 948 people, hhttp://
www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/articles/1095.aspi.
35. Bozo, La France et l’Alliance Atlantique depuis la fin de la guerre froide. See also French
Negotiating Style, Special Report 70 (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace,
26 April 2001). Among other reasons for France’s difficulty in being an engine of sys-
temic change at the global level are a lack of a drive to act, of discipline and, perhaps
paradoxically, of expertise (policy and academic) on a number of global issues.
36. On 22 February 2005, on the occasion of President Bush’s visit to Brussels, it was an-
nounced that all 26 NATO countries would support the training of security forces in
post-war Iraq, with France contributing one officer to help coordination at NATO’s mil-
itary headquarters in southern Belgium. In addition, France separately offered to train
1,500 Iraqi military police in Qatar and play a lead role in European Union efforts to
train Iraqi judicial officials. ‘‘Bush Praises Modest Pledge from NATO on Training Iraqi
Forces’’, New York Times, 22 February 2005.
37. See letter to the editor by Jean-David Levitte, France’s ambassador to the United
States, in the Wall Street Journal, following an editorial in the same newspaper (‘‘Multi-
lateralism à la française’’, Eastern Edition, 14 October 2005) dwelling on the placing
under formal investigation in Paris in October 2005 of Jean-Bernard Mérimée, a former
French ambassador to the United Nations, as part of a corruption enquiry into the
UN-run Oil-for-Food programme in Iraq (‘‘France Deservedly Proud of Its Decision
on Iraq’’, 17 October 2005).
15
Iraq and world order:
A Russian perspective
Ekaterina Stepanova
Russia’s perspective on the Iraq crisis and its implications has to be put
into the broader post–Cold War context. Since the end of the Cold War,
perhaps no other major state had undergone changes as deep and profound
as those experienced, both internally and externally, by post-Soviet Rus-
sia, which itself is partly a product of the end of the Cold War. Although
this adaptation was painful, by the turn of the century Russia had by and
large adjusted to its reduced global role and influence. It increasingly as-
sumed what appeared to be its more natural role of a major Eurasian re-
gional power, enjoying unique geopolitical and geo-economic conditions,
concentrating on domestic development and modernization and acting as
a predictable and international law-abiding partner in world affairs.
For much of the 1990s, though, Russia’s international security agenda
was overwhelmed by the need to manage the consequences of the col-
lapse of the Soviet Union and to limit at least some of the damage caused
by the West’s consolidation of post–Cold War security gains, such as the
eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
It was not until the late 1990s that any coherent Russian foreign policy
extending beyond post–Cold War ‘‘damage limitation’’ could be identi-
fied at all. For Russia, the completion of its own external adaptation
meant the end of the period of post–Cold War damage limitation on its
own side – something that, in Moscow’s view, was not yet paralleled by
adequate changes in the security perceptions, threat assessment, policy
priorities and behaviour of its Western counterparts, as demonstrated by
the 1999 NATO war against Yugoslavia.
249
250 EKATERINA STEPANOVA
Against this background, much as the 1991 war in the Gulf marked in-
ternational changes associated with the end of the Cold War, the new
US-led intervention in Iraq and its implications were viewed in Russia
as one of the two major international developments (the other being the
war on terrorism in the wake of the attacks of 11 September 2001) that
formally concluded the post–Cold War era. For that reason alone, the
2003 Iraq crisis was bound to be seen as a landmark development by
Russia, even if the extent of its broader transformative effect on the state
of the ‘‘world order’’ remained questionable.
Indeed, the crisis in Iraq that was aggravated by the United States’
direct military intervention in that country hardly led to any radical trans-
formation of the international system, particularly in the sense of herald-
ing the emergence of a ‘‘new world order’’. First of all, in the post-bipolar
world, the international system may generally fail to meet the strict stan-
dards of a structured ‘‘order’’ similar to that associated with the Cold
War era, and seems more likely to remain less structured and more sus-
ceptible to tension for a significant period of time. Secondly, although the
crisis in Iraq had its own logic and a post–Cold War history of more than
a decade, the US intervention in Iraq cannot be taken out of the broader
post-9/11 context, particularly the global ‘‘war on terrorism’’.
The effect of the ‘‘war on terrorism’’ on world politics is not necessarily
one of radical change either – rather, it can be more accurately described
as a pendulum that further radicalized and accelerated some of the con-
flicting trends in international politics that were already in place. First,
the rapid and unhindered US intervention in Afghanistan following the
9/11 attacks encouraged the George W. Bush administration to go to ex-
tremes in its unilateralist approach, and this later helped pave the way for
its unconstrained intervention in Iraq. But the very same excesses of US
unilateralism in turn provoked a swing in the other direction and acceler-
ated a second major trend in world politics. The war in Iraq stimulated an
unprecedented backlash worldwide (unparalleled in the post–Cold War
years) and, rather than setting the dominant ‘‘Concert of Powers’’1
against the rest of the world, it polarized key members of the Concert
on the unilateralism/multilateralism dilemma. Whereas the US-led inter-
vention in Iraq served as the peak of the United States’ ‘‘unipolar mo-
ment’’, sharp international disagreements over the war, the UN refusal
to mandate it, and the mounting difficulties of occupation and post-war
conflict management have all pointed in the opposite direction and chal-
lenged US unilateralism. There might have been few doubts about the
US ability to win the war – almost any war – unilaterally, but the continu-
ing crisis in Iraq most vividly demonstrates its inability to ‘‘win the peace’’
unilaterally and even the possibility of losing the peace altogether.
Although the Iraq crisis proved to be a serious test for US global secu-
A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 251
rity dominance, it is not yet clear whether the world’s reaction to the US-
led intervention and the coalition’s failure to ‘‘win the peace’’ in post-war
Iraq mean the beginning of the end of the United States’ ‘‘unipolar mo-
ment’’ or simply drew its objective limits. The answer to that question
goes to the heart of the unilateralism/multilateralism dilemma.
On the multilateralism side, in the context of the Iraq crisis the long-
standing debate on the role of the United Nations in general and of the
UN Security Council in particular acquired a new urgency and an almost
metaphysical nature. The handling of the crisis aroused an exceptional
level of pessimism, both outside and within the United Nations, and was
seen by many as a failure of the UN system to solve the crisis by peaceful
means, to reach an agreement among the key members of the Security
Council in order to prevent the war and, ultimately, to stop the aggres-
sion. The very relevance of the United Nations in its current form had
never been so seriously questioned. But the opposite view could also be
argued for – namely, that the United Nations did in fact pass one of the
most crucial tests in its history and that the UN system, and the Security
Council in particular, did work in the sense that they did not approve an
aggression and managed not to become associated with it, despite the po-
sition of two of the permanent members of the Council.
It need hardly be mentioned that the war against Iraq was seriously
questioned on various grounds by much of the rest of the world outside
the United States. The US-led intervention in Iraq drew objective limits
to the ‘‘flexibility’’ of international law – limits that, if crossed, could even
play against the sole remaining superpower. The main point of resent-
ment was best summarized by Hans Blix, the UN chief weapons inspec-
tor, who stressed that even direct violations of the UN Security Council
resolutions by Iraq did not provide sufficient grounds to legitimize the
use of military force against that state.2 However, just continuing to
stress the illegal nature of the US-led intervention in Iraq scarcely adds
anything new to the debate. Rather, it might be more productive to focus
on how the crisis in Iraq could be managed in the realities of the present
international system and on what the war and its aftermath tell us about
the character and potential evolution of this system. This chapter will
present Russia’s perspective on these issues.
acted in concert with at least some of the key members of the dominant
Concert of Powers (for example, coordinating its position on the US in-
tervention in Iraq with France at the Security Council).
Although UN-centred multilateralism remained the underlying frame-
work that dominated Russia’s public attitudes and foreign policy dis-
course, it could hardly explain all the nuances of Russia’s practical policy
and behaviour, in Iraq and elsewhere. This policy was increasingly shaped
by the second, more practical dimension – the combination and interplay
of at least two pragmatic trends. The first trend was the growing role of
geo-economics in Russia’s foreign policy. This trend has been further re-
inforced during President Putin’s second term (2004–2008), with an even
greater emphasis put on the ‘‘oil and gas factor’’ and on diplomatic sup-
port for the transnational projects of Russia’s major corporations. The
second trend was the emergence of Russia’s new security agenda, with
its focus shifting from the West to the South as the main source of poten-
tial threats and in particular with its new emphasis on anti-terrorism.
A certain gap between the normative and structural dimension of Rus-
sia’s foreign policy, dominated by UN-centred multilateralism, and its
more pragmatic interests and concerns did not necessarily mean, though,
that they could not be congruent and even mutually reinforcing.
the United States over Iraq – had been seen as an option to be seriously
considered.5
At first, after the rapid US military victory and the demise of Saddam’s
regime in Iraq, a modification of the ‘‘accommodation’’ scenario appeared
to emerge as a policy option for Russia. This scenario promised accom-
modation of at least some Russian economic interests in Iraq and thus
appeared to be in line with the general primacy of geo-economics in Rus-
sia’s foreign policy. Needless to say, Russia’s economic interests in Iraq
(under the Saddam government, contracts had been signed by more than
200 Russian firms,6 including lucrative oil projects,7 and repayment of
Iraq’s debt to Russia) were damaged by the war and occupation. The
economic benefits of the lifting of sanctions, which could have improved
the prospects of repayment of Iraq’s debt to Russia, were completely
overshadowed by the terms of the post-war economic game, which
strongly favoured the coalition powers. Trade and market liberalization
measures imposed on an economy weakened by a decade of sanctions,
as well as putting the US-contracted firms in charge of reconstruction
and depriving the Interim Government of Iraq of the right to cancel con-
tracts negotiated by the coalition administration, facilitated US control of
Iraqi national assets and, at best, left key foreign competitors a marginal
economic role to play.
Russia hoped to limit the damage to its economic interests in Iraq by
participating in some form in post-war reconstruction, oil exploitation
and production, and so on. In return, Russia could offer little but accom-
modation of at least some of the United States’ demands and concerns,
particularly within the framework of the UN Security Council, such as a
commitment not to contest the US leadership of a multinational security
force to be mandated by the Council. Even then, Russian companies
could hope to play only a marginal role in post-war Iraq. Although some
of the secondary projects (reconstruction of electricity power stations,
training Iraqi oil production experts, etc.) survived, LUKOIL’s efforts to
reactivate its US$3.7 billion project to develop one of the world’s largest
oil fields (Western Qurna-2) had little chance of succeeding8 if they were
not supported by the United States. In the circumstances, it appeared
that one of the few available options for Russian business was to operate
through structures affiliated with Western companies.
However, the pace of reconstruction was delayed by destabilization
and the deteriorating security conditions in Iraq, which caused the main
foreign critics of US policy, including Russia, to shift towards the ‘‘non-
association’’ scenario. This scenario was not in conflict with Russia’s
geo-economic interests either. Russia is second only to Saudi Arabia as
a crude oil producer, with daily production of 8.4 million barrels, and oil
256 EKATERINA STEPANOVA
and gas account for 30 per cent of its overall exports. At that point, when
the long-term nature of the rise in world oil prices was not yet clear, it
was believed in Russia that, with sanctions lifted, reconstruction and
modernization of the Iraqi oil sector would help bring world oil prices
down.9 This, in turn, could weaken the main basis of Russia’s short-term
economic stabilization and the Russian government’s ambitious economic
growth plans.
In fact, it was the deteriorating security situation in post-war Iraq that
replaced sanctions as the factor limiting the flow of Iraqi oil to interna-
tional markets and contributing to high world oil prices. Thus, the
broader economic implications of the situation in Iraq might not have
been that dramatic, at least for Russia’s oil export sector, and some of
Russia’s economic losses in Iraq could be compensated for by overall fi-
nancial gains from high oil prices. In the longer term, damage to Russian
economic interests in Iraq could also be partly mitigated by granting Rus-
sian oil companies permanent access to the US oil market. More gener-
ally, it should be noted, though, that Russia’s excessive dependence on
oil exports has extremely mixed implications and ‘‘what is good for LUK-
OIL’’ is not necessarily a priori ‘‘good’’ for the long-term modernization
and development needs of the Russian economy, state and society.
Nevertheless, in purely pragmatic geo-economic terms, both political
scenarios under consideration appeared to be equally acceptable to
Russia. Moreover, Russia’s limited political role and influence gave it
the advantage of having to make relatively low-risk choices. This partly
explains why Russia could never become the main driving force behind
a push for one or the other scenario and tried instead to achieve limited
political and economic goals, preferably by others’ hands. All this dem-
onstrated the extent to which Russia’s policy towards post-war Iraq was
circumstantial, reactive to developments on the ground, and permeated
by a ‘‘wait and see’’ attitude: US success in post-Saddam Iraq would
make Russia far more willing to close its eyes to the nature of the occu-
pation regime, whereas a US quagmire would increase the incentives to
follow the ‘‘non-association’’ scenario.
Another example of Russia’s flexible ‘‘wait and see’’ attitude (which
also characterized the policy on Iraq of many other external actors) was
its position on the post-war interim political governance arrangements in
Iraq. Although Moscow always insisted on the need to restore Iraqi sov-
ereignty as soon as possible, its position on the US-sponsored ‘‘proxy’’
Iraqi Governing Council shifted from initial scepticism (up until the end
of 2003) to ‘‘conditional’’ support from early 2004. After the radical
Shiite insurgency against the coalition in April 2004, Russia intensified
its calls for an international conference on Iraq, with the participation of
all local political forces, including the ‘‘forces of resistance’’, representa-
A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 257
occupation of Iraq was likely to become long term, and there was a grow-
ing need to think about potential ways of combining anti-terrorism with
post-war reconstruction that might be utilized in future attempts to find
a way out of the continuing Iraqi crisis. Russia’s own hard and often
flawed experience with anti-terrorism, particularly in dealing with a com-
plex mix of domestic, conflict-generated resistance and international in-
fluences and connections, could provide some operational and strategic
lessons for coping with terrorism in post-war Iraq.
As demonstrated by Russia’s own experience of combining counter-
insurgency and counter-terrorist operations, in a shaky post-war environ-
ment that might easily degenerate into a full-scale armed conflict, the
range of the threats and of the security measures that need to be
undertaken to meet these threats always goes beyond the terrorism/
anti-terrorism dichotomy. From fighting an asymmetric war on its own
territory, Russia knew the difficulty of reconciling tasks that are more
specifically focused on and tailored to counter-terrorism needs (intelli-
gence collection and analysis, carefully targeted and highly selective spe-
cial and covert operations aimed, first and foremost, at the prevention and
pre-emptive disruption of terrorist activities and networks) with more
regular enforcement and policing measures, let alone with military/
counter-insurgency operations emphasizing coercion and post hoc retali-
ation, often in the form of ‘‘collective punishment’’.
Because the US-led occupation of Iraq was to a large extent handled as
a military affair, with elements of a massive counter-insurgency cam-
paign, many, if not most, of the problems it raised, the operational tasks
it posed and the methods that were employed (including high-altitude
bombing of certain areas and long-range missile strikes, on the one hand,
and massive ‘‘cordon and search’’ actions on the ground, on the other
hand) had little to do with counter-terrorism in a more narrow sense. Co-
ercive measures in general and ‘‘collective impact’’ measures in particular
(such as closures and mopping-up zachistka-style operations, which have
been increasingly employed by the US forces in Iraq) hardly serve and
may even interfere with counter-terrorist goals when they are used as es-
sentially punitive or retaliatory measures or as a substitute for other se-
curity activities, rather than as a highly selective tool, employed for a pre-
defined period of time, in a limited area, based on very solid intelligence
and for specific operational purposes.
There is little doubt that conflict-generated terrorism cannot be suc-
cessfully countered at just the operational level. More fundamentally, the
most effective long-term anti-terrorism strategy would appear to be re-
storing and strengthening state control or, in failed states, (re)building
national state institutions and authority.17 Russia’s own experience with
A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 261
tional law (which does not preclude the further development and im-
provement of the existing international legal system). It is this capacity
that may increasingly determine the ranking and clout of a particular
state or an international organization in global politics.
The second trend manifested itself, above all, in the post-9/11 war on
terrorism. Although this global campaign launched and led by the United
States was based on a broad international consensus about the gravity of
the new mega-threat to international security, it also reaffirmed the cen-
tral role of the United States in the world system. Moreover, the exces-
sive reliance on enforcement in general and on military force in partic-
ular appeared to be seen by the US leadership as the key to successfully
winning the war against terrorism. Among other things, this trend was
revealed in the way Iraq became forcibly intertwined with the war on
terrorism as a direct consequence of the US-led intervention and occupa-
tion. That link is highly controversial. The dismantling of Saddam Hus-
sein’s ‘‘rogue’’ regime might have had a certain demonstration effect on
other ‘‘rogue states’’, but on most other counts it appeared irrelevant, if
not damaging, to anti-terrorism priorities. As demonstrated by the situa-
tion in post-war Iraq, turning rogue states into failed states leads to more
rather than to less terrorism. Moreover, an upsurge in terrorist activity
generated by the conflict in Iraq had every chance to be employed as an
additional rationale for reinforcing the war on terrorism in its most mili-
tant form.
Against this background, how does Russia see itself in the world after
11 September and the intervention in and occupation of Iraq? More spe-
cifically, which of the two main new trends in global politics is likely to
become a leitmotif of Russia’s own strategic thinking and policy and de-
cisively affect its behaviour on the world stage? It might well seem that
the crisis in Iraq has pushed Russia in the ‘‘winning the peace’’ direction.
However, even with its permanent seat at the UN Security Council and
its traditionally strong opposition to the use of force to settle interna-
tional disputes, Russia is unlikely to assume one of the leading roles in
‘‘winning the peace’’, for a number of reasons. Russia has only limited
political leverage and interest in managing conflicts that do not directly
affect its own national security, and it is still struggling with the task of
solving a long-standing conflict on its own territory. It also lacks signifi-
cant financial resources that could be directed to global conflict resolu-
tion and post-conflict peacebuilding purposes. Russia’s limited capacity
to gain high scores on the ‘‘winning the peace’’ scale may provide an ad-
ditional rationale for the Russian leadership to seek a higher profile in the
international arena through a closer association with the harsher forms of
the US-led war on terrorism.
A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 263
Notes
1. For more detail on the ‘‘Concert of Powers’’ concept, see Chapter 3 by Ayoob and Zier-
ler in this volume.
2. Cited in The Independent, 5 March 2004.
3. See Chapter 23 by Krieger in this volume.
4. For a detailed discussion of the ‘‘responsible partnership’’ strategy, see records of a
series of expert round tables on the subject held in Moscow in 2003: Irakski krizis i
stanovlenije novogo mirovogo poryadka: sbornik materialov [The Iraq Crisis and the
Making of the New World Order: A Collection of Materials] (Moscow: ‘‘Orbita-M’’
Publ. for Foreign Policy Planning Committee & Institute of Strategic Assessments and
Analysis, 2004), pp. 174–293.
5. In public discussions, there certainly were some exceptions and a few opinions calling
for more extreme policy choices were voiced. See, for example, a statement by the Yu-
kos Oil Co. Institute for Applied Political Studies, calling for Russia’s full acquiescence
in US pressure and for it to join the anti-Iraq coalition: ‘‘Russia Has Already Lost the
War in Iraq – It Has to Become Reconciled with the U.S.’’, Moscow, 31 March 2003.
6. According to the deputy chairperson of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Rus-
sian upper chamber of parliament (the Council of Federation), V. Iver, the losses of
the Kama Automobile Plant (KAMAZ) alone exceeded @200 million (see Irakski krizis
i stanovlenije novogo mirovogo poryadka, p. 234).
7. Russian companies (including Zarubezhneft, Alfa Eco, Machinoimport, and ACTEC)
received about 30 per cent of oil sales under the UN humanitarian Oil-for-Food pro-
gramme (1996–2002), worth some US$19.3 billion (see the Independent Inquiry Com-
mittee into the UN Oil-for-Food Programme, Report on Programme Manipulation, 27
October 2005, p. 22). Russian officials (as well as politicians and business leaders) deny
the claims made by the authors of the report that Russian companies paid millions of
dollars in illicit surcharges to Saddam Hussein’s government on ‘‘Oil-for-Food’’ oil
sales. See C. Bigg, ‘‘Russia: Oil-For-Food Corruption Report Leaves Russians Cold’’,
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), 28 October 2005; A. Nicholson, ‘‘Russians
Say Volcker Report Based on Forgeries’’, Moscow Times, 31 October 2005.
8. In March 1997, LUKOIL signed an agreement with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and Gas to
develop Western Qurna-2 oil field on production-sharing terms. The agreement could
not come into force, however, because Iraq remained subject to UN sanctions. Later,
Saddam Hussein’s government unilaterally denounced the agreement, claiming that the
Russian side (constrained by UN sanctions) had refused to fulfil its obligations, whereas
LUKOIL considered the agreement still to be in force.
9. With only one-third of its territory explored, Iraq already has known oil resources ex-
ceeding those of Russia and all other former Soviet republics, Mexico, the United States
and Canada combined. At the same time, the costs of oil extraction in pre-war Iraq were
8–10 times lower than in Russia.
10. See an interview with First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov: ‘‘Yest’ pre-
del ustupkam Moskvy’’ [‘‘There is a Limit to Moscow’s Concessions’’], Nezavisimaya
Gazeta, 12 May 2004.
11. Quoted in ‘‘Putin Calls for Withdrawal Timetable for Iraq’’, RFE/RL, 19 August 2005.
12. In September 2004, Spring Time Holding Ltd, which was affiliated with ConocoPhillips,
bought the former state-owned 7.59 per cent stake in LUKOIL for almost US$2 billion.
13. According to a preliminary arrangement, LUKOIL was to keep 51 per cent of the con-
tract share and ConocoPhillips acquired another 17.5 per cent.
264 EKATERINA STEPANOVA
14. Cited in Rosbisnessconsulting, 2 October 2004. In addition to Iraq debt cuts, under the
Paris Club terms, Russia had already agreed to write off 80 per cent of Afghanistan’s
US$10.5 billion debt (which would reduce the debt to US$2 billion), and in early 2006
expressed its willingness to go even further in helping settle Afghanistan’s debt.
15. In April 2005, Russia went even further by announcing that it would sign an intergov-
ernmental agreement with Iraq writing off 90 per cent of the nation’s US$10.5 billion
(@8.1 billion) debt to Moscow by the end of 2005.
16. Polls were conducted by the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center (VTSIOM).
Interestingly, a relatively high percentage of respondents (29 per cent) agreed that the
United States had fought the war to defend democratic values. ‘‘VTSIOM: 62% ros-
siyan schitayut operatsiyu SShA v Irake prestupleniyem’’ [VTSIOM: 62 per cent of Rus-
sians Consider the US Operation in Iraq a Crime], Rosbisnessconsulting, 18 March 2004.
17. For more detail, see Ekaterina Stepanova, Anti-terrorism and Peace-building during and
after Conflict (Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, June
2003), hhttp://editors.sipri.se/pubs/Stepanova.pdfi.
16
Iraq and world order:
A German perspective
Harald Müller
Introduction
The war in Iraq and its aftermath pose three powerful questions to all
those thinking about the possibility and the shape of a world order in the
era of undisputed US preponderance:
What idea of order do the war in Iraq and the US administration’s im-
mediate post-war strategy stand for?
What lessons do these experiences hold for this idea of order?
Apart from this particular approach to order, what are the general re-
quirements for world order in the present circumstances and how, if at
all, can they be fulfilled?
This chapter attempts to answer all three questions from ‘‘a German per-
spective’’. The first section will explain what makes a perspective particu-
larly German. Next, I analyse the neoconservative idea of order that finds
vivid expression in US policy (before and after the attacks of 11 Septem-
ber), the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States of America,
and its implementation in Iraq. The handling of the Iraq crisis by the
United Nations, which is often described as a ‘‘failure’’ that proves the
organization’s ‘‘irrelevance’’, is then narrated from the opposite perspec-
tive – as a success, proving the capability of the world community to
tackle the extremely complex and difficult issue of dealing with ‘‘deviant
behaviour’’ in the sensitive area of weapons of mass destruction.
After dealing with this telling historical example, and making deduc-
tions from the various experiences, I then put forward some propositions
265
266 HARALD MÜLLER
for what a world order in the present situation would require. I first look
at these requirements from the perspective of a world whose parts are
coming ever closer to each other through the growing interdependence
of economies, the global environment, international security and global
communications. I then try to understand the implications for order of
the visible fragmentation into strong reassertions of particularistic futures
(in the extreme form, militant ‘‘fundamentalisms’’). I conclude that even
vastly superior resources of power are not enough, in the circumstances,
to ensure the power holders’ desired outcomes, but that multilateral
cooperation and strong legitimacy of, and broad participation in, world
order are preconditions for achieving desired outcomes: order will func-
tion only if many actors know they have a stake in it.
This chapter does not deal with the intra-German debate on the Iraq
war. The main reason is that there was not very much of a debate. Public
opinion was opposed to the war throughout, with very large majorities,
and these majorities cut across all parties. As a consequence, even the
opposition did not support the war; the opposition candidate for the
chancellorship, Mr Stoiber, even vowed at one point that he would not
open German air space to allied aircraft supplying the war. Criticism
of the government’s position focused on procedure rather than on sub-
stance: that the Chancellor had announced his principled hostility to the
war during a campaign speech in a public forum rather than in a private
talk with the US President; that he had insinuated that the American
ally was an ‘‘adventurer’’; and that he had refused German support even
in the event of a second UN resolution. The policy of the German–
French–Russian axis was seen by staunch Atlanticists as strategic folly.
In terms of direct support for the US–UK campaign, however, only a
few lonely voices from the most conservative press or expert community
bought US arguments about the danger from Iraq’s (non-existent) weap-
ons of mass destruction or the benefits that would accrue to the Middle
East and the campaign against terror from a regime change in Iraq. The
majority of the political élite and the public, in contrast, were deeply
sceptical about these propositions. And this is about all one can say
about the ‘‘German debate’’.1
security community in the United States since the 1970s and found its
first authoritative expression in the work of the Committee on the Pres-
ent Danger, a conservative think tank that prepared the external policy
of the Reagan presidency.7 The first few years of the Reagan administra-
tion transferred some of this blueprint into reality, but it was soon under-
cut by Gorbachev’s reforms in the USSR, which made a more accommo-
dative US policy imperative (and preferred by the vast majority of the
American people).8 The first President Bush conducted a much more
centrist policy from the beginning. In Defense Secretary Cheney’s Penta-
gon, however, the more radical views still had a home, and the first draft
for the Defense Planning Guidance of 1992 contained many elements
that found their way into the 2002 National Security Strategy.9 Other
documents written by neoconservatives left no doubts about what the
policies of a future government, led by them, would be.10
The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 gave the neoconservative
members of the George W. Bush administration the opportunity finally
to prevail over sceptics and traditional conservatives such as Secretary
of State Powell and his deputy, Richard Armitage. However, the policy
had been discernible earlier, notably in the refusal to engage in further
arms control and the visible desire generally to avoid any entangling
constraints by international law.11 Retaining freedom of action for the
United States is a very important part of this idea of order. The US role
is to confer order by its sheer superiority in military and other resources
and its determination to apply this power without hesitation. In this view,
US hegemony is the best guarantee of a flourishing international system
in which democracy and free markets expand; the spread of democracy
and free markets, in turn, improve the prospects for stability and thereby
lower the costs of hegemony, but never to the point where the United
States would renounce its claim to superiority over all possible
enemies.12
International law and organizations are, at best, helpful for upholding
hegemonic order and, at worst, serious stumbling blocks that must be re-
moved and deconstructed. Decision-making belongs to Washington; for-
eign participation is not desired and, if it must occur, it should be granted
only to sympathetic governments in ‘‘coalitions of the willing’’ rather than
to formal alliances or collective security institutions. The main danger to
this order arises from rogue states with weapons of mass destruction or
terrorists, or a combination of both. It is precisely to eradicate this lethal
threat preventively, before it can achieve its evil goals, that US superior-
ity, unilateralism and rapid and determined military action are required
for both world order and US security.13
The Iraq war was a logical application of this strategy. Iraq, in the view
of those who had been promoting the elimination of Saddam Hussein’s
A GERMAN PERSPECTIVE 269
regime for a decade, epitomized the threat to world order that US strat-
egy was meant to address. The United States made a detour through the
United Nations in order to support its best ally, UK Prime Minister Tony
Blair, at home and if possible to garner the useful legitimacy that comes
with a Security Council mandate. When the latter was not forthcoming,
the resort to unilateral action was predictable. The work of the UN in-
spectors (successful, as we now know) was ignored, as was the wish of
the vast majority of the Security Council (and of world opinion) to give
the inspectors more time, as they requested.14
The war was a crushing success militarily, apparently confirming
Americans’ faith in the superiority of US arms as a source of order-
making. The aftermath of the war, however, raises serious concerns that
the neoconservative dream of hegemonic order will turn out to be a new
‘‘Proud Tower’’ illusion,15 a pipe-dream that cannot be realized because
its analysis and prescription badly misrepresent real-world conditions.
The Iraqis did not take to the streets in their millions to greet the libera-
tors with jubilation. The occupation forces failed badly in providing secu-
rity on the ground and quickly restoring the basic infrastructure needed
to make life bearable in a material sense. The disbanding of the army
and police forces and the purging of Ba’ath Party officials from the civil
service proved disastrous for internal order and had to be partially re-
voked after a few months. Divisions between and within the major ethnic
and religious groups made political reconstruction unexpectedly difficult.
Many of the exiles on whom the Pentagon had relied, especially Mr Cha-
labi, did not command much authority or credibility among the Iraqis
who had been living under Saddam Hussein’s rule for a quarter of a cen-
tury. In contrast, the Shiite clergy emerged as much more powerful and
better organized politically than the planners had anticipated. Instead of
being a decisive victory in the ‘‘war on terrorism’’, the Iraq war attracted
terrorists from around the Muslim world and made the country the
world’s most terrorist-targeted place. Desperately overburdened US sol-
diers looked in vain for strong reinforcements from abroad. The ‘‘coali-
tion of the willing’’ remained too small to supply the necessary forces to
grant the United States the desired relief and to stabilize Iraq by way of a
much more substantial occupation. The United Nations, rudely pushed
aside after the war, was called back to provide decisive services in the
transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqis. This transfer was hastily brought
forward in order to calm hostile feelings in the occupied country. Even-
tually, the impact on the military rank and file of two years of disparage-
ment of international law and of describing the enemy as the embodi-
ment of evil reared up with a vengeance in the ugly pictures from Abu
Ghraib. It was at first denied then gradually recognized that what had
happened there was the tip of the iceberg, the result of systematic rather
270 HARALD MÜLLER
than random violation of the very values on which the US image of world
order is built.16
As a consequence of choosing the wrong blueprint, President George
W. Bush and his collaborators have lost the world. Goodwill towards
America, which reached an unusual high immediately after the attacks
of 11 September, took an unprecedented dive to the lowest values ever
measured in public opinion polls. Even in the most supportive population
of the United Kingdom, US standing fell by 30 per cent. In the Arab
world, supporters of the United States found themselves in a minority
of less than 10 per cent; in US-friendly Jordan, anti-American feeling
rose to an incredible 99 per cent. Osama bin Laden, whose political-
fundamentalist utopia did not receive majority appreciation, did receive
majority acclamation for his courage in taking on the superpower.17 If
the US government had wanted to attract support for its vision of order,
it had failed as badly as it was possible to do.
order’’ that has been the subject of moral and political philosophy since
ancient times.
Order, as I have said, is linked with time. The longstanding existence
of a particular structure and of processes that have become routine cre-
ates the reassurance that the future will not be too dissimilar from the
present and that changes can be predicted with some reliability to remain
within sustainable limits. Stable expectations exist for the behaviour of
most other actors. Although this criterion would be met in a balance
of power system – where balancing and bandwaggoning are predict-
able types of behaviour given certain distributions of power among the
actors22 – a normative understanding of order would aim at conditions
in which the impacts of the security dilemma would be mitigated. Not
only should behaviour be predictable, but it should be ensured that the
predictable behaviour by all actors (or at least most of them) is in line
with the security needs of all others (or at least most of them).23
Lastly, the order should enjoy the support and commitment of most of
its members. Such support is the basic condition that ensures stability
over time and a broad enough consensus to deal with the deviant behav-
iour of individual challengers in any political system, whether national or
international.24 This requires that the order is seen as legitimate by most.
Legitimacy, in turn, has an input and an output side. On the input side,
it requires that there is a fair opportunity to participate in the decision-
making processes whose results impact on the actors. On the output side,
the distribution of values emerging from these decisions should be rea-
sonably fair, or at least seen as such by most of the actors.25
There is a second aspect of globalization that makes law both more nec-
essary and more difficult to achieve. By focusing on interdependence,
I have identified its unifying forces, the creation of common interests
in lawful coordination. However, globalization occurs in a world that is
still very heterogeneous, socially, politically and culturally. Because glob-
alization has been driven by forces emerging from ‘‘Western’’ culture,
other parts of the world see it as an alien intrusion. Even in the Western
world, the speed of these developments has disturbed people and made
them feel exposed to hostile forces. As a consequence, heterogeneity is
reinforced rather than overcome. In reaction to the perceived deleterious
intrusion, people re-emphasize the elements of their identity that they
believe are at the root of their difference. Socio-cultural and political
fragmentation is thus a corollary of globalization and, indeed, the twin
of its unifying, amalgamating force.29
Fragmentation need not be, but can be, the source of horrendous vio-
lence.30 The opposition of collectivities that see each other as the hostile
‘‘other’’ contains an enormous escalation potential that, as Clausewitz
said about war, tends to move towards ‘‘the absolute’’.31 By increasing
diversity, fragmentation may create curiosity, recognition of legitimate
otherness and friendship based on a genuine interest in differences. But
it may as easily create alienation, resentment, fear and an increased
readiness to treat the alien violently. It very much depends on how the
existing or emerging order takes care of fragmentation.
Which brings us back to legitimacy. In a heterogeneous world society
in which actors are conscious of their ‘‘otherness’’ because of the cycle
of fragmentation and emphasis on identity, the legitimacy of an order
is measured not only by whether the value obtained by any single actor
is seen as satisfactory in itself, but by whether, compared with what
‘‘others’’ have got, one’s own share is reasonably fair. Concerns about
relative, rather than absolute, gains in distribution systems are always vir-
ulent. They define the stability of an order in a world society where frag-
mentation is accentuated.32
Similar reasoning applies on the input side of legitimacy. Because each
party in a fragmented world is particularly eager to get its own voice
heard in the forums where major decisions are made, decision-making
systems that are exclusionary face distrust, resentment and, eventually,
violent resistance. Despite all the convergence between cultures that
globalization has engendered, even mainstream cultural codes and value
systems are still sufficiently different to make it impossible for the mem-
bers of a particular – Western – cultural system to design patterns of
value distribution that would be acceptable to the majority of members
A GERMAN PERSPECTIVE 275
Conclusions
The war in Iraq was the attempt by a single state, endowed with histori-
cally unprecedented superior power and actively supported by a few al-
lies, to impose its own idea of good governance on a resistant dictator-
ship, to eliminate a supposed current and future danger to the region
and the world at large, to reform the shape of a critically strategic region,
and thereby to affect world order in a positive way. This attempt was
challenged by the more limited efforts of a majority of the international
community to grapple with the possible threat from weapons of mass de-
struction (WMD). The attempt to establish a model way to deal with
non-compliance and the WMD proliferation issue in a well-conceived,
multilateral manner failed because of the determination of the super-
power to prevail with its own approach. This was not successful because
the superpower ignored the most fundamental trends of our time engen-
dered by globalization, namely interdependence and fragmentation, both
of which call for an order based on multilaterally established, legitimate
international law, and because it confused power over resources with
power over outcomes; the latter notion of power is becoming ever more
relevant as these trends increasingly shape international interactions.
A GERMAN PERSPECTIVE 279
Notes
1. Harald Müller, ‘‘Das zerrissene Erbe der Aufklärung. Die ideologische Polarisierung
zwischen Deutschland und den USA’’, Internationale Politik, Vol. 59, Nos 11/12 (2004),
pp. 15–24; Harald Müller, ‘‘Germany’s Conditional Solidarity’’, Internationale Politik.
Transatlantic Edition, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2005), pp. 43–48; Tuomas Forsberg, ‘‘German
Foreign Policy and the War on Iraq: Anti-Americanism, Pacifism or Emancipation’’,
Security Dialogue, Vol. 36 (June 2005), pp. 213–231.
2. Sebastian Harnisch and Hanns W. Maull, eds, Germany as a Civilian Power? The For-
eign Policy of the Berlin Republic (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2001).
3. Besides the studies cited in note 1, see Harald Müller, ‘‘German National Identity and
WMD Nonproliferation’’, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Summer 2003), pp.
1–20; Volker Rittberger, ed., German Foreign Policy since Unification (Manchester:
Manchester University Press, 2001); John Duffield, World Power Forsaken: Political
Culture, International Institutions and German Security Policy after Unification (Stan-
ford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999); Thomas Berger, Cultures of Antimilitarism.
National Security in Germany and Japan (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University
Press, 1998); Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., Tamed Power. Germany in Europe (Ithaca, NY:
Cornell University Press, 1997); Harald Müller, ‘‘German Foreign Policy after Unifica-
tion’’, in Paul Stares, ed., The New Germany and the New Europe (Washington, DC:
Brookings Institution, 1992), pp. 126–173.
4. This is not to say that people in other countries do not prefer the same principles for
world order.
5. See the debate between Gunther Hellmann, ‘‘Sag zum Abschied leidse Servus! Die
Zivilmacht Deutschland beginnt, ein neues ‘Selbst’ zu behaupten’’, Politische Viertel-
jahresschrift, Vol. 43, No. 3 (2002), pp. 498–507, and Volker Rittberger, ‘‘Selbstentfesse-
lung in kleinen Schritten? Deutschlands Außenpolitik zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts’’,
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, Vol. 44, No. 1 (2003), pp. 10–18.
280 HARALD MÜLLER
6. William Walker, Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Order, Adelphi Paper
370 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2004), Chapter 4.
7. Jeffrey W. Sanders, Peddlers of Crisis. The Committee on the Present Danger and the
Politics of Containment (Boston: South End Press, 1983).
8. Ernst-Otto Czempiel, Machtprobe. Die USA und die Sowjetunion in den achtziger Jah-
ren (Munich: Beck, 1989); Raymond Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation. American–
Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1985).
9. Excerpts from ‘‘Pentagon Plan: ‘Prevent the Emergence of a New Rival’ ’’, New York
Times, 8 March 1992, p. 14; The White House, The National Security Strategy of the
United States of America (Washington, DC: The White House, September 2002).
10. Paul Wolfowitz, ‘‘Clinton’s First Year’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 1 (January/Febru-
ary 1994), pp. 28–43; Samuel P. Huntington, ‘‘Why International Primacy Matters’’, In-
ternational Security, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Spring 1993), pp. 71–81; Charles Krauthammer,
‘‘The Unipolar Moment’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, No. 1 (1990/1991).
11. Joseph Nye, ‘‘U.S. Power and Strategy after Iraq’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 4 (July/
August 2003); Madeleine K. Albright, ‘‘Bridges, Bombs, or Bluster?’’, Foreign Affairs,
Vol. 82, No. 5 (September/October 2003), pp. 2–19; G. John Ikenberry, ‘‘America’s Im-
perial Ambition’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 5 (September/October 2002), pp. 44–60;
Ivo Daalder and James M. Lindsay, America Unbound. The Bush Revolution in Foreign
Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2003).
12. Robert Kagan, Power and Weakness, Stanford University, Policy Review, June 2002,
hhttp://www.policyreview.org/JUN02/kagan_print.htmli.
13. The National Security Strategy.
14. Hans Blix, Disarming Iraq (New York: Pantheon Books, 2004).
15. Barbara Tuchman, The Proud Tower (New York: Macmillan, 1966). The term stands
for the arrogance of the European élites before World War I, their militant social Dar-
winism, their blindness to the horrors of the imminent war, and their ignorance of the
negative dynamics of the forces they had unleashed.
16. Chris Brown, ‘‘Reflections on the ‘War on Terror’. Two Years on’’, International Poli-
tics, Vol. 41, No. 1 (2003), pp. 51–54.
17. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Views of a Changing World
2003, hhttp://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?Report=185i.
18. Blix, Disarming Iraq, Chapters 11 and 12.
19. Nick J. Rengger, International Relations, Political Theory and the Problem of Order
(London: Routledge, 2000).
20. Shmuel N. Eisenstadt, ‘‘Sociology: The Development of Sociological Thought’’, in
David L. Sills, ed., International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, Vol. 15 (New
York: Macmillan, 1968), pp. 23–36, at pp. 24–25.
21. Morton A. Kaplan, Systems and Process in International Politics (New York: Wiley,
1957).
22. Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987);
Randall L. Schweller, ‘‘Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back
In’’, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1 (1994), pp. 72–107.
23. Janne Nolan, ed., Global Engagement. Cooperation and Security in the 21st Century
(Washington, DC: Brookings, 1994); John Steinbruner, Principles of Global Security
(Washington, DC: Brookings, 2000).
24. David Easton, A Systems Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1967).
25. Fritz W. Scharpf, ‘‘Die Handlungsfähigkeit des Staates am Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts’’,
in Beate Kohler-Koch, ed., Staat und Demokratie in Europa (Opladen: Westdeutscher
Verlag, 1992), pp. 93–115.
26. Marianne Beisheim, Sabine Dreher, Gregor Walter, Bernhard Zangl and Michael Zürn,
A GERMAN PERSPECTIVE 281
Im Zeitalter der Globalisierung? Thesen und Daten zur gesellschaftlichen und politischen
Denationalisierung (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 1999); David Held, Anthony McGrew, Da-
vid Goldblatt and Jonathan Parraton, Global Transformations. Politics, Economics and
Culture (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1999).
27. Thomas M. Franck, The Power of Legitimacy among Nations (New York: Oxford Uni-
versity Press, 1990); Lori Fisler Damrosch and David J. Scheffer, Law and Force in the
New International Order (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991).
28. Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984).
29. Harald Müller, Das Zusammenleben der Kulturen. Ein Gegenentwurf zu Huntington
(Frankfurt: Fischer TB, 1998), pp. 58–72.
30. This is the concern voiced in Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations (New York:
Simon & Schuster, 1996).
31. Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege, ed. Werner Hahlweg (Bonn: Suhrkamp, 1990).
32. Joseph M. Grieco, Cooperation among Nations: Europe, America and Non-tariff Bar-
riers to Trade (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990).
33. Margaret E. Keck and Kathryn Sikkink, Activists beyond Borders. Advocacy Networks
in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), pp. 210–217.
34. Hannah Arendt, Macht und Gewalt (Munich: Beck, 1970); see also Joseph S. Nye, ‘‘The
Decline of America’s Soft Power’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 83, No. 3 (2004), pp. 16–21.
35. Joseph S. Nye, ‘‘What Is Power and How Can We Best Use It?’’, in Benjamin Edering-
ton and Michael Mazarr, eds, Turning Point: The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy
(Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994).
17
Avoiding a strategic failure in
the aftermath of the Iraq war:
Partnership in peacebuilding
Chiyuki Aoi and Yozo Yokota
Introduction
Japan’s support for the US and coalition forces puts it in the same boat
with the coalition forces in their arduous and long-term challenge of re-
building Iraq. The Iraq war posed a very difficult foreign policy dilemma
for Japan, the dilemma of having to choose between loyalty to its most
important ally, the United States, which seemed determined to go to
war against Iraq even if a new UN Security Council resolution authoriz-
ing such action was not adopted, and the post-war bedrock policy of
‘‘UN-centrism’’, which is still supported by the majority of Japanese citi-
zens. The Iraq war therefore challenged the untroubled, if not entirely
realistic, assumption of compatibility between three pillars of post-war
PARTNERSHIP IN PEACEBUILDING 285
Japan also supports the US and coalition forces militarily. This kind of
support is meant to show that Japan is making a substantive contribution,
not just a nominal or financial one, through the provision of personnel
( jinteki koken) to the maintenance of international peace. In July 2003,
following the Security Council resolution calling on member states to
provide humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Iraq,10 the Koi-
zumi cabinet succeeded in obtaining Diet approval of special legislation,
the Special Measures Law on Humanitarian and Reconstruction Assis-
tance in Iraq, which enabled Japan to send its Self-Defense Forces to
provide humanitarian and reconstruction assistance but not to engage in
combat. After the passage of Resolution 1546,11 which returned sover-
eignty to the Iraqis in June 2004, the JSDF continued to operate in Iraq,
this time ‘‘within’’ the UN-authorized multinational force there, but with-
out coming under the command of the multinational force.
The decision of the Koizumi cabinet to send the JSDF to Iraq was cal-
culated to satisfy the political and economic interests of Japan. The most
important of these interests is for Japan to reaffirm and strengthen the
existing Japan–US security arrangement, particularly in the face of the
growing potential threat posed by North Korea. Despite various diplo-
matic efforts during the 1990s to forestall North Korea’s declared ambi-
tion to possess WMD, a series of crises in the region have had the effect
of alerting the Japanese leadership and public to the need to strengthen
the US–Japanese security arrangement. Japan’s dependence on US de-
terrent capabilities in the region explains the difference in response to
the Iraq war between Japan and Germany. Germany, following the thaw
of the Cold War in Europe and embedded deeply in political institutions
in Europe, no longer relies as heavily on US military protection.
Another source of political pressure is the Japanese policy of seeking a
permanent seat at the UN Security Council. Japan is aware that US sup-
port is indispensable to gaining a permanent seat. Prime Minister Koi-
PARTNERSHIP IN PEACEBUILDING 287
zumi declared this goal for the first time as Japanese prime minister at
the UN General Assembly in September 2004, in a speech in which he
cited Japan’s recent contribution in UN peace operations and assistance
to Afghanistan and Iraq.12 Since Japan’s bitter experience during the
1991 Gulf war, when its contribution of US$13 billion was received with
little appreciation by the coalition, Japan has tried to make its contribu-
tion to UN peace activities ‘‘visible’’ – in that human as well as financial
resources are provided.
There was also an economic factor behind Japan’s decision to support
the United States in Iraq. Being aware that Japan’s economy depends
heavily on the US economy, the Japanese leadership normally avoids a
hostile policy towards the United States. Although Japan is likewise
averse to hostile relations with the Middle East on which it relies for vital
resources, particularly oil, Japan gambled that the United States would
win. Pro-American Japanese Foreign Minister Kawaguchi’s background
as an economic bureaucrat made a difference in advancing that calcula-
tion. In the ministry of foreign affairs, too, relations with the United
States take precedence over other matters in practically all circum-
stances. That stance is reflected in the bureaucratic structure, in which re-
gional desks (especially the Northern American desk) exert more influ-
ence in decision-making than do functional desks (including the UN and
legal affairs desks).
stacle, in the government’s view, was not the constitution but the lack of
relevant provisions in the current Self-Defense Forces Law covering
JSDF activities in situations other than direct and indirect attacks on
Japan.18 There was, nevertheless, no consensus in the Diet. Given these
domestic controversies, Japanese participation in UN collective action
was limited before 1992 to civilian assistance to some limited UN peace-
keeping operations.
It was not until 1992 that an initiative by three major political parties
resulted in the passage of the International Peace Cooperation Law
(IPCL), which provided for the participation of the JSDF in UN peace-
keeping and humanitarian assistance missions. As a result, Japan partici-
pated in the UN Transitional Authority in Cambodia, as well as in sev-
eral other UN peacekeeping missions. Japanese forces served in the
United Nations Operation in Mozambique in logistical planning and
command and control operations; in Zaire in 1994 assisting refugees;
from 1996 in the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force in the
Golan Heights, providing transportation; and in East Timor since 2002
providing engineering units as well as command and control.
Nevertheless, the law contained some inherent limitations as a result of
successful manoeuvres by left-wing political parties in the Diet. The most
obvious limitation was the ban on JSDF participation in so-called ‘‘core’’
activities (Hontai Gyomu), such as patrols and cease-fire monitoring,
until such time as there was international and domestic ‘‘understanding’’
towards Japan’s participation in peacekeeping. This ban was lifted in De-
cember 2001.
Nonetheless, this ban on ‘‘core’’ activities, and its eventual lifting,
probably had little practical significance given that such ‘‘core’’ activities
are relatively simple tasks routinely carried out by traditional players in
UN peacekeeping. A more significant limitation was the so-called ‘‘five
conditions’’ set for Japanese participation in UN peacekeeping: (a) the
existence of a cease-fire; (b) consent by the local parties; (c) strict impar-
tiality (these three conditions are, needless to say, the conditions for tra-
ditional UN peacekeeping); (d) in the absence of these conditions,
Japan’s right to decide whether to maintain its forces in the operation;
and (e) minimum use of force strictly for self-defence. These conditions
limited Japanese participation to cases of relatively stable, traditional
peacekeeping in spite of the fact that the nature of peacekeeping was
changing and might require limited enforcement measures to control local
parties’ fluctuating levels of consent toward peacekeeping deployments.
The five conditions have also prevented Japan from providing much-
needed advanced logistical support for UN-authorized coalition missions,
such as INTERFET in East Timor.19 These conditions are increasingly
290 CHIYUKI AOI AND YOZO YOKOTA
dian Ocean during the US war against the Taliban in Afghanistan was
quite significant. In this context, it cannot be denied that the 9/11 attacks
had a substantial impact on Japan’s security policy. Most importantly, the
9/11 attacks had the effect of accelerating and justifying the expansion of
Japanese military actions in support of US forces, which were an exten-
sion of the bilateral defence arrangement through legal as well as po-
litical discretion, a trend that had been under way since the mid-1990s. In
the autumn of 2001, after as little as a month’s debate in the Diet, the
Koizumi cabinet succeeded in getting the Anti-Terrorism Special Mea-
sures Law passed by the Diet. Under this law, Japanese naval vessels
were dispatched to the Indian Ocean to provide logistical support to the
coalition forces during the war against the Taliban. This law was ex-
tended in 2003 and again in 2005.
This uncharacteristically swift response by the Koizumi cabinet is in
line with Japanese activism in the area of bilateral defence during the
1990s. Triggered in great part by the crises in the Far East in the mid-
1990s, Japanese actions in bilateral defence were considerably more pro-
active than in previous eras. The crises in the Korean Peninsula, most
notably the repeated defiance by the North Korean regime of WMD
non-proliferation agreements, resulted in a widely held recognition that
the existing US–Japanese defence cooperation needed upgrading. The
1996 Hashimoto–Clinton communiqué declared the US–Japanese alli-
ance to be the basis of ‘‘world peace and regional stability and prosper-
ity’’, and agreed on a revision of the 1978 Guidelines for Japan–US De-
fense Cooperation (Defense Guidelines) in order to clarify the extent of
collaboration between the two nations in light of the current security en-
vironment.23 In 1997, revised Defense Guidelines were adopted, which
spelled out closer US–Japanese cooperation in a full spectrum of contin-
gencies but especially those related to ‘‘situations in areas surrounding
Japan’’. The ensuing passage of Laws Concerning Measures to Enhance
the Peace and Security of Japan in Situations in Areas Surrounding Ja-
pan clarified and expanded the areas of US–Japanese collaboration in
situations in areas surrounding Japan in concrete terms.
The JSDF deployment in the Indian Ocean should be understood as an
important extension of this bilateral security arrangement. The Japanese
Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is deployed in the area on the
basis of the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law, which inherited
much from the Laws Concerning Measures to Enhance the Peace and Se-
curity of Japan in Situations in Areas Surrounding Japan, particularly in
terms of the definition of the ‘‘rear area’’. Further, the most significant
point is that the JSDF began deploying during the war in Afghanistan,
provoking a domestic debate about whether the JSDF was being sent to
a ‘‘combat area’’. The opposition parties worried that, as a result of the
292 CHIYUKI AOI AND YOZO YOKOTA
Conclusion
In sum, Japan has clearly sided with the United States and the coalition
in their post-9/11 actions and in their vision about how to restore interna-
tional order in the post-9/11 world. In both Afghanistan and Iraq, con-
cern for bilateral relations with the United States has driven Japanese
policy. To a significant extent the Japanese response to the Iraq war ex-
poses the nation’s strategic reliance on the United States and the readi-
PARTNERSHIP IN PEACEBUILDING 295
Notes
1. See Robert Jervis, ‘‘Understanding the Bush Doctrine’’, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.
118, No. 3 (Autumn 2003); Lawrence Freedman, ‘‘Prevention, Not Preemption’’, Wash-
ington Quarterly, Vo1. 26, No. 2 (Spring 2003).
2. Jervis, ‘‘Understanding the Bush Doctrine’’, p. 366; Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of
the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New
York: Random House, 1987).
3. Jervis, ‘‘Understanding the Bush Doctrine’’.
4. Mainichi, 23 February 2003.
5. Mainichi, 13 March 2003.
6. Yomiuri, 21 March 2003.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Nikkei Denwa Yoron Chosa, March 2003, hhttp://www.nikkei-r.co.jp/nikkeipoll/
qandres/y200303a.htmi.
10. UNSCR 1511 (2003).
11. UNSCR 1546 (2004).
12. The speech by Prime Minister Koizumi at the 59th UN General Assembly, 21 Septem-
ber 2004.
13. The government does not use the term ‘‘participation’’. The original Japanese in the de-
cision of 17 June 2004 in the Security Council of Japan reads: ‘‘Takokuseki gun no naka
de’’. Iraq Jindo Hukko Shien Tokoso Ho ni motozuki Jieitai ga Iraku ni oite okonau Jin-
dou Hukko Shien Katudou nado ni Tsuite [About JSDF humanitarian and reconstruc-
tion activities in Iraq based upon the Law Concerning the Special Measures on Human-
itarian and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq] (Security Council of Japan Decision on
Heisei 16 (2004) 17 June).
PARTNERSHIP IN PEACEBUILDING 297
14. Hans Maulle, ‘‘Germany and Japan: The New Civilian Powers’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol.
69, No. 5 (Winter 1990/1991); Takashi Inoguchi, Saori Katada and Hans Maulle, eds,
Global Governance: Germany and Japan in the International System (London: Ashgate,
2004).
15. Yozo Yokota, ‘‘PKO and Japan’s Domestic Politics: A Legal Analysis’’, in Soo-Gil Park
and Sung-Hack Kang, eds, UN, PKO and East Asian Security: Currents, Trends and
Prospects (Seoul: Korean Academic Council on the United Nations System, 2002).
16. Akihiko Tanaka, Anzen Hosho: Sengo Gojunenn no Mosaku (Tokyo: Yomiuri Shinbun-
sha, 1997), pp. 148–149. This interpretation was coupled with the so-called ‘‘three prin-
ciples’’ of self-defence, adopted in the Diet in 1954.
17. The Nineteenth Session of the Diet, cited in Shigeru Kousai, Kokuren no Heiwa Iji Kat-
sudo (Tokyo: Yuhikaku, 1991), pp. 478–479.
18. Kousai, Kokuren no Heiwa Iji Katsudo, pp. 500–501.
19. On the basis of the five conditions, the Japanese leadership ruled out a Japanese re-
sponse to the call to provide medical support to the Australian-led coalition force in
East Timor.
20. See Article 24 of the International Peace Cooperation Law, and Article 17 of the Spe-
cial Measures Law on Humanitarian and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq.
21. See also the discussion below on force protection.
22. Confirmed in an interview with a JSDF official.
23. ‘‘Japan–U.S. Joint Declaration on Security: Alliance for the 21st Century’’, 17 April
1996, hhttp://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/security.htmli.
24. ‘‘Combat’’ is defined in the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law as acts to kill people
or destroy objects as part of international armed conflicts (Article 2(3)).
25. For a similar assessment, see Akio Watanabe, ‘‘The Higuchi Report and After: Evolu-
tion of Japan’s Defense and Security Policies during the Past Ten Years’’, Kokusai An-
zen Hosho, Vol. 31, No. 3 (December 2003).
26. Statement by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on the Passing of the Anti-Terrorism
Special Measures Law by the Diet of Japan, 29 October 2001.
27. Watanabe, ‘‘The Higuchi Report and After’’.
28. UNSCR 1368 (2001).
29. UNSCR 1483 (2003).
30. Interview with JSDF officials.
31. Yomiuri, 21 April 2003.
32. Nikkei Denwa Yoron Chosa, March 2003.
33. Nihon Keizai Shinbun, 5 July 2004.
34. Ibid.
18
Iraq and world order:
A Latin American perspective
Mónica Serrano and Paul Kenny
America in their grip, yet they hardly register for the United States.
Whether paradoxically or not, the transition to democracy has reduced
the international profile that Latin America had in the troubled epoch
of dictatorship and insurgency.
If one re-writes the index for Latin America under US hegemony, it is
not hard to see why this should be so:
Colombia: drugs, war on
Mexico: border with United States; migration from
Andes: drugs, balloon effect of
Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina: terrorist havens on triple frontier of
Such are the US realities of Latin America. They reflect, above all, the
securitizing logic of the war on drugs. So long as a country such as Bolivia
does not challenge that logic, it may go to the wall without so much as a
murmur from the United States. From Argentina to Venezuela, Latin
American countries enjoy the sovereign right to descend into disorder
without US interference, so long as the chaos presents no security chal-
lenge to the United States.
Already blinkered by its own security concerns vis-à-vis Latin America
before the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the United States in-
tensified its securitized vision afterwards. With its homeland security
under direct threat, the United States was convulsed first by tragedy, then
by an apparently consuming urge to divide the world into friends and
foes. As al-Qaeda sought to convert anti-Americanism into the cause of
a global war, so the natural allies of the United States and major institu-
tions such as the United Nations came under pressure to show their soli-
darity with the United States as never before. The new pressure on Latin
America, however, produced a crack within the hegemonic order. The
United States, as ever, wished for an echo to its own reality; not all Latin
American countries found they could give it.
The key case was Mexico. The most natural of the United States’ Latin
American allies, given the depth of regional integration under the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico’s supply of sym-
pathy was short. President Fox delayed for days after 9/11 before making
the gesture of a telephone call to President Bush. The limit to the adop-
tion of American standards was in turn noticed.
For Mexico, 9/11 spelled the end of any hopes of a deal with the United
States over the illegal status of millions of Mexican migrants. For Latin
America generally, 9/11 also marked the end of any chance of making
its realities count against US perceptions. The hemispheric consequence
of 9/11 was to sharpen the hegemonic dilemma: to submit and be counted
on US terms, or not to react and be discounted.
Many Latin American countries found themselves too dependent upon
A LATIN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE 301
the United States to refuse the new demand for support. But many were
not going to rise to the level of commitment demanded by the United
States either. In the test case of Colombia, Brazil and Venezuela declined
to categorize the insurgents as terrorists on a par with al-Qaeda, and Ec-
uador and Peru drew back from the regionalization of the conflict envis-
aged by Plan Colombia. At the same time, the near presidential victory
of Evo Morales in Bolivia on a platform of opposition to US drug eradi-
cation policies signalled a new trend of anti-Americanism within Latin
America, one synergized by a confluence between opposition to neo-
liberalism and anti-globalization.
As the war on Iraq loomed, the signs of hemispheric fissure increased.
On the one hand, Latin America as a whole shares a diplomatic tradition
that is explicitly opposed to military intervention in general, and to US
military intervention in particular. On the other, the inescapable reality
of hegemony would still dictate the terms of Latin American resistance:
it would have to make itself felt without coalescing into an overt chal-
lenge to the United States. The Latin American perspective on Iraq
would be marked by the peculiar mixture of rifts and constraints within
the hegemonic relationship with the United States. Insofar as a matter
of diplomatic principle was at stake, leading Latin American countries
did oppose the United States. Hegemony reached a limit. The question
was how to articulate that a limit had been reached while still bowing to
the inevitable.
The Latin American dilemma of divergence within dependence would
have remained utterly peripheral had not two of its states, Mexico and
Chile, come into the UN Security Council in 2003. The drama that en-
sued would itself be a test of the implications of a US-centric world order.
The Security Council offered a world stage for the submerged conti-
nent to rise up and be seen. That, at least, was how the leading Mexican
actors in the drama saw their role in 2003. In the words of Foreign Min-
ister Jorge Castañeda, Mexico came to the Security Council looking to
participate ‘‘in the design and construction of the new post Cold War
world order, simultaneously characterized by the hegemony of the
United States and the effort of the rest of the world to limit and control
that hegemony’’.2
This chapter is about the fate of that Latin American design. Since the
drama was driven by perspectives, we begin with these before moving on
to the acts. In the conclusion, we turn our own critical perspective upon
the Latin American protagonists. Were Mexico and Chile up to playing a
constructive international role on behalf of the world order represented
by the United Nations? Or was their divergence from the United States
itself limited and controlled by its hegemony?
302 MÓNICA SERRANO AND PAUL KENNY
The virtual veto of the Security Council robbed the US war on Iraq of
international legitimacy; but into the gap the Bush administration
wedged its doctrine of the preventive use of force in assuring its own na-
tional security. If the spiral of terrorism from political Islam is the most
alarming short-term consequence of the invasion of Iraq, for many the
long-term implications of this new US doctrine for world order are no
less troubling. With its willingness to bypass the United Nations now es-
tablished, what is the post-Westphalian limit to US military intervention?
From the start of the Iraq crisis, this question was uppermost in Latin
America. Indeed, the continent was uniquely well – or badly – placed to
hear the alarm bells:
The only zone of the planet constantly wronged by the United States has been
Hispano-America. In 1847 Mexico suffered the mutilation of half of its territory.
It was an unjustifiable act of historical piracy which haunted Mexican govern-
ments like a nightmare until 1927 . . . Along with Mexico, the ‘‘banana republics’’
of Central America and the Caribbean islands of ‘‘the US’ Mediterranean’’ were
the next victims of gunboat diplomacy: the annexation of Puerto Rico, the com-
pulsory protectorate for Cuba . . .3
become reactivated, fears for the future intensified. Wherever the United
States intervenes, Latin America sees its history being repeated.
No level of response to the US intervention in Iraq was deeper than
that of Latin American domestic opinion. Far from finding an echo there,
the security concerns of the United States were represented as the thin-
nest of imperialist disguises; Iraq was just one more case in a litany of US
interventions, one more banana-cum-oil republic. Opinion formers found
parallels, not between Hussein and Castro, but between the pattern of
US intervention in Latin America and in the Middle East, one in which
the United States had installed friendly dictators over the heads of suffer-
ing peoples.5 Politicians came in on cue. When at the height of the Iraq
crisis President Fox said ‘‘there are threats from outside’’, for his Mexican
audience he could mean not al-Qaeda or weapons of mass destruction,
but only the United States.6
At this crudest level, the significance of Iraq in Latin America was that
it exposed the limits of the hegemonic arrangement for both sides. For
the United States, if it listened, the message was that Latin America is
behind the real time of the new world order in which new threats have
to be responded to. For Latin America, the crisis over Iraq brought
home the untenability of simultaneously opposing and submitting to the
hegemon. Both sides found themselves looking for the exit. For the
United States, the exit was unilateralism, with the attendant dilemmas
noted by Thakur and Sidhu. For the more chafing Latin American states,
the exit was the United Nations, the only forum in which opposition to
the United States might be expressed without risking the benefits of in-
terdependence with the United States.
Even without the test of Iraq, some of those states were already
voicing their discontent with the structural situation in which they are re-
moved from a world order that in turn neglects them. Take this message,
delivered by Luiz Felipe de Macedo Soares, Brazil’s under-secretary of
foreign relations:
Mexico and Brazil, as Latin America’s two great countries, can or ought to jointly
express their concern about the situation of Latin America . . . so as to attract the
attention of the other centres of power.7
In its hesitant urgency (‘‘can or ought to’’), the message catches the plight
of Latin America at the start of the twenty-first century: where can Latin
America count? Yet the message was delivered just as the attention of
the world was becoming mesmerized by Iraq and the prospect of US in-
vasion. Was this a time for Latin America to count?
For one utopian Latin American protagonist, Mexico, it was. It could
not forget 1847, but Latin American history might at last be changed by
A LATIN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE 305
Evidently now, the theme of the new world order, of the reconstruction of the
UN’s authority and above all of the struggle for a multipolar world in which Latin
America, Europe can coordinate themselves, well it’s going to help to get a better
world.8
ical, it could well have anticipated that its votes were going to be weighed
in the balance with the United States. President Bush had supported
Mexico’s campaign to join the Council in place of the Dominican Repub-
lic (which, along with all the Central American Republics, would later
approve the invasion). The US position over Mexico’s vote on Iraq was
in turn delivered by US Ambassador Tony Garza: ‘‘We’ll respect the po-
sition of any country, but what we most want is that Mexico give its sup-
port, and understand our position.’’10 By the time President Bush spoke
on the telephone to President Fox, the message was simpler: ‘‘The secu-
rity of the United States is on the line. I want your vote.’’11
As Mexico’s business community was not slow to point out, Mexico’s
interests clearly lay in supporting the recipient of 90 per cent of its ex-
ports. There was also the vulnerable situation of the still illegal Mexicans
in the United States to think of. Yet Mexico had two reasons for deciding
not to ‘‘do the right thing’’. Unfortunately, the two reasons did not find a
single mouthpiece.
On the surface, Mexico’s participation in the Security Council was
strictly on the basis of its own historical and constitutional commitment
to principles of non-intervention and the peaceful resolution of con-
flicts.12 If Mexico’s ethically sovereign reasons of state inhibit it from
sending soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions, it could hardly be ex-
pected to approve a US-led intervention in Iraq.13
Below the surface, though, the crisis over Iraq offered an ideal test for
the more ambitious Mexican design of checking US unilateralism. Could
Mexico dissuade the United States from doing what it wanted over Iraq?
No. But could it lead the veto of world consensus against the United
States? If yes, the case for an expanded Security Council would be
strengthened, along with the authority of the United Nations.
These are the considerations that broke through in the otherwise in-
opportune exuberance of Jorge Castañeda’s assessment in the aftermath
of the crisis:
Instead of the Council having decided that it was not going to approve this Reso-
lution and that therefore the Americans, English [sic] and Spanish would not be
able to present the second Resolution, they would have had the nine votes. If it
wasn’t for Mexico and for Chile, they would have had the nine votes and so, of
course, it was worth it.14
for both the United States and Mexico the issue of Iraq came down to
basic allegiance – unconditionally expected by the United States, uncon-
ditionally refused by Mexico.
President Fox had led Mexico to an unsustainable stalemate with the
United States and also foreclosed Mexico’s exit options in the Security
Council. Mexico’s position there, articulated through the traditional
‘‘pacifist militarism’’ of Ambassador Adolfo Aguilar Zı́nser, allowed no
room for bargaining with the United States. But because Mexico was
now dancing to a patently nationalist tune in the Council, the option was
in turn open to the United States of turning its back on diplomacy there
with Mexico and piling on the pressure at source. The new foreign minis-
ter began to communicate a policy of ‘‘wait and see’’, of principled – or
pressurized – indecision. The United States had opened a breach in Mex-
ican diplomatic discourse. Even when given, ‘‘No’’ was not an answer for
the United States.22 ‘‘Did they [the United States] behave badly? Tell
them. If they block you, it doesn’t matter, tell them,’’ advised Marı́n
Bosch, ex-under-secretary of foreign relations, after the event.23 Instead,
Mexico had only been able to tell them it was going to tell them.
On the one hand, the exercise of US pressure on Mexico, as on Chile,
was nakedly hegemonic. Both Mexico and Chile went as far as they could
in opposing the United States, paradoxically finding in their very depen-
dence upon the United States an incentive to resist it. The crucial point,
on the other hand, is that they were unable to oppose the United States
together.24 If opposing the United States was ‘‘worth it’’, what was the
value to multilateralism of Mexico and Chile’s disjoined opposition?
survive intact for Chile, even in the face of the 2003 defeat for multilater-
alism. It was also a motto that set Chilean off from Mexican diplomacy.
Where Mexico adhered to an orthodox interpretation of its foreign policy
principles and fell back on pacifism, Chile established itself as a genuine
multilateral player and, as a result, took up a more nuanced position. No-
tably, Soledad Alvear registered a condemnation of Saddam Hussein’s
regime that Mexico scarcely attempted. She also endorsed both the ur-
gency and the unambiguity of Resolution 1441, as well as the build-up of
US troops on Iraq’s borders. A confrontation with Iraq was ‘‘indispens-
able’’, but so too was ‘‘the maintenance of a multilateral control of the
crisis’’.28 For Chile, the credible authority of the United Nations over
Iraq and the ‘‘common aim of disarming Iraq by peaceful methods’’
could be maintained through the ‘‘only instrument’’ available, the
weapons inspections.29 Chilean diplomats remained in close contact with
Hans Blix, the UN chief weapons inspector.30
Had Iraq been a crisis like any other, Chile’s multilateral faith would
have been exemplary. As it was, once the permanent members of the
Council split, Chile’s principled position became untenable. Its power-
lessness at the abandoned centre came to symbolize that of the United
Nations.
Chile had been in the Council before, most recently in 1996–1997.
It came in 2003 as the undisputed economic growth leader of Latin
America. A lesson in powerlessness was not what it expected, much less
– for this regionally isolated country – one in specifically Latin American
powerlessness. Chile was prepared to defend multilateralism; it was less
prepared for the confrontation with the United States this would entail.
The US–Latin American dimension of Chile’s experience came as a
shock.31 Chile could go as far as intimating to the United States that it
was with it so long as the United States was with the United Nations; be-
yond that, Chile had no scenarios.
Yet, in Spring 2003, Chile was also in a situation of unique vulnerabil-
ity to the United States. A free trade agreement, pursued by Chile for 12
years, was pending US congressional ratification, as was the purchase of
F-16 fighter airplanes. Its more nuanced diplomacy notwithstanding, Chile
was not that far removed, after all, from Mexico’s predicament.
As with Mexico, Chilean society was both opposed to the US invasion
of Iraq and apprehensive of the consequences of its opposition. Guido
Guirardi, president of the Party for Democracy, the other party in the co-
alition government, may have declared: ‘‘The Free Trade Agreement is
not worth a war.’’32 But whether Chile could afford an open ‘‘No’’ to the
United States remained another, agonizing matter.
From this point on, Chile’s unprotected situation mirrored Mexico’s.
On the one hand, the game with the United States was to intimate ‘‘No’’
310 MÓNICA SERRANO AND PAUL KENNY
without actually saying so for as long as possible. On the other, the rule
of the game was that neither government would form a proposal against
the United States.33
In keeping with its principles, Chile continued to hark on the theme of
multilateral consensus; in practice, it now had no position. Not only did
Chile now occupy the centre of the Security Council when the centre
could not hold; but, as diplomats also later admitted, both the United
States and France considered Chile to be on their side.34 It was in this
predicament that, within a matter of days, President Lagos revised his
own position and proposed the three-week extension for Blix’s weapons
inspectors. It was Chile’s polite way of saying ‘‘No’’ to the United
States.35 But it was also the moment when Chile broke, in practice if not
in principle, with its own multilateral good faith. Critically, the proposal
was made with no expectation of Mexican support. As its predicament
with the United States had deepened, so had Chile’s solidarity with
Mexico. Chile was intent on getting itself off the hook, not on putting
Mexico on it. In the gratefully acknowledging words of Ambassador
Zı́nser, ‘‘these are proposals from the government of Chile’’.36 The pro-
posal was withdrawn the same day it was made; already informed in
advance about its content, thanks to espionage, the United States was
prompt to express the offence it had taken.
The ‘‘what might have been’’ interest of this last-minute episode in the
Iraq crisis increases if one credits suggestions that the Chilean proposal
had a behind-the-scenes sponsor in UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.37
But if even such an actor was looking at that late stage for a way out of
the rupture between the United States and the United Nations, Chile by
now was an actor looking for its own exit.
After the Chilean failure, both the Chilean and Mexican ambassadors
were instructed by their governments to ‘‘forget about the word ‘con-
demn’. They could ‘lament’ as much as they liked the drift to war, but
condemn, no.’’38 Under Mexico’s presidency of the Council there was
no call for a cease-fire either. So ended the ‘‘revolt of the Latins’’.
The emotive words of Chile’s ambassador Gabriel Valdés for the ‘‘bit-
ter’’ experience were ‘‘grief’’ and ‘‘horror’’.39 But the equally unpalat-
able fact was that Chile, at the critical moment, had had to privilege a
Latin American perspective over a multilateral one. As it came to appre-
ciate Mexico’s vulnerability first-hand, so Chile backed off from joining
forces with it. Chile may have succeeded in delivering a ‘‘No’’ to the
United States, but only as a lone voice. That was as much as the hegem-
onic rules allowed. The United States was unable to secure legitimation
from the Security Council, but it was able to avoid a collective de-
legitimation.
A LATIN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE 311
You cannot on the one hand support multilateralism, the United Nations and in-
ternational law, and on the other refuse participation in the Council; you cannot
denounce US unilateralism and refuse to belong to the only mechanism which
can, perhaps only every so often, set limits to it.41
States or the role of the United States in the UN world order. The ‘‘rogue
hegemon’’ was there only to be constrained. Mexico thus contributed to
the opposite of what it intended: a weakened Security Council. Not un-
justifiably, Mexico would also lose out to UN peace keeper Brazil as the
regional candidate for permanent membership of an expanded Council in
an EU-backed reform plan touted towards the end of 2004.
Chile’s diplomacy showed a more advanced appreciation of the argu-
ment presented by Thakur and Sidhu – that opposing multilateralism
against US unilateralism is a limited game. Chile’s opening stance con-
veyed institutional commitment to the United Nations without implying
that a UN world order needs to be an anti-US order. But Chile was un-
prepared either for the conflict between the UN and US world orders or
for its subsequent ramifications. Chile’s traditional defence of multilater-
alism could lead it only to a diplomatically empty position over Iraq. Per-
haps in recognition of this, the United States did not in the end veto the
Free Trade Agreement. While escaping a penalty for its lamentation,
Chile also returned to the original Latin American position in relation
to the United States.
On the surface, this position allows multilateralism to be defended in
principle against the United States. If multilateralism fails to constrain
the United States on one occasion, then it is neither the fault of the prin-
ciple nor for want of trying: better luck may be had next time. Yet, at a
deeper level, Chile’s experience also revealed some of the complexities
and complicities of the hegemonic game with the United States. The
United States cannot impose allegiance, but it can ensure that a ‘‘No’’
doesn’t translate into a veto. Within the bounds of the game, Mexico
was able to confront the United States without opposing it; Chile to op-
pose without confronting. Both were finally content to escape the conse-
quences of a ‘‘No’’ that really meant what it said.
The crisis over Iraq took this private dialogue of equivocation to the
limit without changing the fundamental hegemonic pattern of submissive
opposition or resistant acquiescence. A crisis over Cuba might be another
matter. Would thinking that ‘‘No’’ had been said to the United States,
even though it either had not really been said or had been said but had
not been heeded, suffice?
The dilemma of Latin America’s role in the world order has been
posed as one of participating or shutting up. To judge by the failures of
Mexico and Chile over Iraq, Latin America’s UN role in a crisis closer
to home would be one of participating, denouncing and shutting up –
inside the United Nations. The uncomfortable question begged as much
by the absence of Brazil from the Council in 2003 as by the presence of
Mexico and Chile is, ultimately, whether the United Nations is an alter-
native forum to a US world order in the twenty-first century.
A LATIN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE 313
Notes
1. Joseph Nye, The Paradox of American Power. Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t
Go It Alone (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002).
2. Jorge Castañeda, ‘‘América Latina, ante una disyuntiva desgarradora’’, El Paı́s, 13
March 2003.
3. Enrique Krauze, ‘‘Los Estados Unidos: Un balance histórico’’, El Paı́s, 5 March 2003.
4. See Ana Marı́a Salazar, ‘‘Atentado terrorista en México?’’, Reforma, 30 April 2004.
5. Enrique Krauze, ‘‘Ecos de ‘pequeñas guerras’ ’’, El Paı́s, 10 April 2003.
6. Reforma, 6 March 2003.
7. El Paı́s, 21 February 2003.
8. Reforma, 26 March 2003.
9. The theme of Security Council reform, specifically a widening of the membership with a
right to the veto to ‘‘some countries important at a regional level’’, was taken up by En-
rique Berruga, Mexico’s under-secretary of foreign affairs (Reforma, 23 March 2003).
10. Reforma, 19 February 2003.
11. Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), p. 344.
12. Unlike its NAFTA partner Canada, Mexico lacks any legal mechanisms to sanction the
use of force abroad. The lack in turn is one pointer to the continuity within Mexico’s
foreign policy after the transition to democracy. With Iraq, Mexico repeated its non-
interventionist stance over Kosovo, where the legitimacy of intervention was more
widely seen to outweigh the issues of legality.
13. In May 2004, new Foreign Minister Ernesto Derbrez would call Mexico’s refusal to par-
ticipate in UN peacekeeping operations hypocritical.
14. Reforma, 18 March 2003.
15. Ibid.
16. Castañeda was unwilling to share the role of protagonist with Mexico’s ambassador to
the United Nations, Adolfo Aguilar Zı́nser. Castañeda opposed Zı́nser’s nomination,
and would spend a year without speaking to him. See Jeffrey Davidow, El Oso y El
Puercoespı́n Testimonio de un embajado de Estados Unidos en México (Mexico: Edito-
rial Grijalbo, 2003). On the other hand, Castañeda’s connections with the Chilean polit-
ical and diplomatic élites were strong.
17. President Fox had literally read out the wrong script at the United Nations when he was
expected to present Mexico’s position on UN and Security Council reform. Interview
with ex-ambassador Aguilar Zı́nser, Mexico City, September 2004.
18. Reforma, 3 April 2003.
19. Reforma, 26 March 2003.
20. Reforma, 4 March 2003.
21. In an appearance before the Mexican Congress, 7 May 2004.
22. In late February, it was being reported that both Mexico and Chile were coming over to
the US side, that at the very least they had agreed with Bush not to say ‘‘No’’ too early
(El Paı́s, 27 February 2003).
23. El Universal, 26 March 2003.
24. From a Canadian perspective, Mexico’s behaviour in 2003 could well have evoked re-
cent memories of a Canada–Mexico alliance to pressure the United States to recognize
the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, an alliance that Mexico at the last
minute ditched under US pressure. Interview with ex-ambassador Aguilar Zı́nser,
Mexico City, September 2004.
25. Chile’s adherence to the principle of non-intervention was given practical expression in
its displeasure at the arrest warrant issued against General Pinochet by Judge Baltasar
Garzón in 1998.
314 MÓNICA SERRANO AND PAUL KENNY
26. Or, more accurately, on its still incomplete transition to democracy. The post-transition
constitution prohibits elected officials from having a say on the military budget, which is
fixed at the level of the last year of the Pinochet government.
27. 7 March 2003, hhttp://www.un.int/chile/Discursos/disc20030307i.
28. 5 February 2003, hhttp://www.un.int/chile/Discursos/disc20030205i.
29. Ambassador Juan Gabriel Valdés, 29 January 2003, hhttp://www.un.int/chile/Discursos/
disc20030129i.
30. Interview with Ambassador Pedro Oyarce Yuraszeck, Director of Multilateral Policy,
Foreign Ministry, Santiago de Chile, May 2004. Blix co-authored the last-minute Chil-
ean proposal with President Lagos in March 2003.
31. See, for example, the reaction of Gabriel Valdés to the arrival of US special envoy Otto
Reich in Chile: ‘‘The indignity hurts. Chile can be a partner, not a lackey’’ (El Paı́s,
1 March 2003).
32. El Paı́s, 14 March 2003.
33. El Paı́s, 11 March 2003: ‘‘ ‘It’s one thing not to support the resolution of the United
States and another to promote an active group,’ admitted a [Chilean] source.’’
34. Interview with the Multilateral Policy team, Foreign Ministry, Santiago de Chile, May
2004. President Chirac directly requested an abstention from President Lagos, and com-
plained at the tone with which he was refused.
35. ‘‘Uff, you don’t know how hard it was,’’ Lagos is quoted as saying in ‘‘Aniversario de la
Invasión a Irak’’, El Mercurio, 21 March 2004.
36. Reforma, 15 March 2003.
37. Interviews carried out in Santiago de Chile, May 2004. Both Blair and Foreign Secretary
Jack Straw were prepared to travel to Chile (and to trade Straw’s credit over the arrest
of General Pinochet) to seek its support. They were also prepared to assist the United
States with its spying on Chile in the United Nations.
38. El Paı́s, 24 March 2003.
39. 19 March 2003, hhttp://www.un.int/chile/Discursos/disc20030319i.
40. 27 March 2003, hhttp://www.un.int/mexico/2003/interv_cs_032703.htmi.
41. Castañeda, ‘‘América Latina, ante una disyuntiva desgarradora’’.
42. Colombia joined the Central American Republics in supporting the US invasion; Bo-
livia, Ecuador and Uruguay remained ambiguous; Peru deplored it; Argentina and
Brazil opposed it. See FLASCO, Chile, ‘‘América Latina se divide frente a Iraq’’, 28
March 2003, hhttp://www.flasco.cl/flasco/main.php?page=noticia&code224i. Opposition
to the United States over Iraq was a factor in the concurrent electoral victory of Nestor
Kirschner over pro-US Carlos Menem in Argentina.
19
Iraq and world order:
A Pakistani perspective
Hasan-Askari Rizvi
The Saddam Hussein era came to an end on 9 April 2003, when his statue
was toppled in Firdous square, Baghdad, soon after US troops moved
into the official sectors of the capital city. This was a moment of triumph
for the United States because it demonstrated that it had enough military
power and political determination to pursue its global agenda in the face
of strong diplomatic opposition.
The US-led war in Iraq (March–April 2003) can be described as an im-
portant turning point in international politics. It has such wide-ranging
implications for the international system that we may talk in terms of be-
fore and after the Iraq war. There are several major implications of the
Iraq war for the international system, especially for developing countries.
First, the United States has demonstrated its military primacy and out-
reach by conducting successful military operations in a distant country.
Though a large number of countries criticized the military operation or
questioned its legitimacy, hardly any state was willing or capable of mak-
ing even a symbolic countervailing military move in the region. This re-
flected the reality of power politics in the post–Cold War era, marked
by the military preponderance of the United States. It was not surprising
that many in official and non-official circles in the United States talked of
restructuring the Middle Eastern political arrangements to protect and
315
316 HASAN-ASKARI RIZVI
Nations because it was unable to restrain the United States from using
force against a member state without specific authorization by the UN
Security Council. The United States refused to wait for the UN inspec-
tors to complete their investigation of the presence or otherwise of
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and launched an attack on Iraq,
which adversely affected the reputation of the United Nations.
Despite the US disregard for the United Nations, most other states
repeatedly emphasized the need to assign a central role to the United
Nations in Iraq. It was not merely France, Germany, Russia and China
that favoured a UN role during and after the Iraq war. A large number
of other states put their confidence in the United Nations and criticized
the United States for its unilateral use of massive force in Iraq. The de-
mand for a UN role gained momentum as resistance developed in Iraq.
One could therefore argue that the Iraq war and its aftermath had
conflicting implications for the United Nations. The United States mani-
fested an arrogance of power and bypassed the United Nations. Some of
its actions can be interpreted as defiance of the international body. How-
ever, the United Nations won greater international support and accept-
ability during and after the Iraq war. Though the US military action in
Iraq could not be moderated, the emphasis on a role for the United Na-
tions showed that most states continued to have confidence in the United
Nations.
The US emphasis on unilateralism and pre-emption perturbed the
smaller and weaker states, especially those that had problems with pow-
erful states. They felt that the US precedent could be used by other pow-
erful states to coerce weaker states into submission. Therefore, the small
and weak states viewed the UN system as a possible safeguard for them
against other powerful states that might decide to follow in the footsteps
of the United States in advancing their individual agendas. Most states
advocated that, in an Iraq-like situation, individual states should be
discouraged from taking unilateral decisions to use military force against
another state.
bours of Iraq, while other neighbours stayed aloof from the conduct of
the war.
The terrorist attacks on two important symbols of US economic and
military power on 9/11 shattered the Americans’ sense of security in the
post–Cold War era. There was a realization in the United States in the
pre-attack period that terrorism was on the rise in the international
system and often targeted US interests. However, the US policy makers
never visualized that such a massive operation could be carried out on its
mainland. The adversary was not a state but a transnational underground
group that could not be easily located.
The US administration adopted a host of stringent security measures
inside the country, some of which compromised the civil and political
rights and freedoms of ordinary people. The United States assigned the
highest priority to combating terrorism in its foreign policy and mobilized
international support through the United Nations and by direct interac-
tion with other states. The new US strategy of counter-terrorism focused
attention on all the states that had adversarial relations with the United
States as suspects for terrorism against the United States. Iraq was one
such country.
The 1990s brought many achievements to the United States at the in-
ternational level. In particular, 1990 witnessed the end of the Cold War
between the United States and the Soviet Union, which was tottering
under domestic political and economic pressures. In December 1991, the
Soviet Union breathed its last as a state; its constituent republics became
independent. Russia was recognized as the successor to the Soviet Union
but its leadership had neither the capability nor the determination to
pursue the Soviet agenda at the global level; it sought Western, albeit
US, support to put its economic house in order. The United States thus
did not face any credible countervailing military threat at the global
level and most analysts began to describe the United States as the sole
superpower.
Earlier, in January–February 1991, a US-led military coalition had ex-
pelled Iraqi troops from Kuwait, which they had occupied in August
1990. This demonstrated the United States’ ability successfully to employ
its military power to achieve political and military targets in a far away
place. It was against the backdrop of these two major events – i.e. the de-
mise of the Soviet Union and a successful military expedition in the Gulf
region – that the US President talked of a new world order, emphasizing
liberal democracy, civil and political rights, privatization and free trade,
non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, control of narcotics
trafficking, and counter-terrorism.
This strategy was revised after the terrorist incidents of 9/11, when the
highest priority was assigned to combating transnational terrorism. Coer-
A PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVE 319
trusted Saddam Hussein and they had a host of complaints against him.
But they did not want to be a party to the war against Iraq. Given such
a regional context, the US policy makers were rightly confident that they
would not face strong diplomatic opposition from the region and no
neighbouring state would be willing to offer credible military support to
Saddam Hussein.
The overwhelming use of military power enabled the United States to
dislodge Saddam Hussein from power. However, this success lacked dip-
lomatic support at the global level and the United States faced a lot of
criticism for undertaking unilateral military action and for totally disre-
garding the United Nations. The demand for an increased UN role in
Iraq grew as the US military encountered insurgency in parts of Iraq
within two months of capturing Baghdad. The insurgency intensified by
early 2004, which contributed to the US decision to assign a limited role
to the United Nations in Iraq. However, the United States jealously
guarded its military primacy in Iraq.
The US-led war on Iraq created a difficult situation for Pakistan. Its
policy makers did not denounce the United States because they attached
importance to the reinvigorated Pakistan–US relations against the back-
drop of the global efforts to combat terrorism. However, they could not
publicly support the US invasion of Iraq, not only because domestic pub-
lic opinion was extremely critical of US military action but also because
the United States had disregarded the United Nations. Pakistan viewed
the US emphasis on unilateralism and pre-emptive action as guiding prin-
ciples for the war as a dangerous precedent. Expressing concern at the
outbreak of the war, Pakistan demanded that the war should be brought
to an end as soon as possible. However, it avoided public condemnation
of the US military action in Iraq.
Pakistan was a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council
during 2003–2004, which kept it actively involved with the UN-centred
diplomacy on the Iraq war. In the pre-war period, Pakistan emphasized
the need for a peaceful resolution of the Iraq problem and favoured giv-
ing more time to the UN inspectors to complete their assignment in Iraq.
The government of Pakistan maintained that ‘‘every effort should be ex-
hausted’’ for a peaceful resolution of the Iraq crisis,4 and that, if military
action became imperative, it should be ‘‘taken within the framework of
the United Nations’’.5 While outlining Pakistan’s policy on Iraq, Presi-
dent General Pervez Musharraf maintained that Pakistan believed in
‘‘the supremacy of the UN and [felt] that the Security Council [was] the
A PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVE 321
of mass destruction in Iraq. Even after the end of the war, Pakistan
continued to urge that the matter should be handed over to the United
Nations,
The United States approached Pakistan to make its troops available
for support activities in post-war Iraq. This matter was taken up during
President Pervez Musharraf’s visit to the United States in June 2003. Pa-
kistan agreed in principle to make its troops available but it insisted on a
UN Security Council mandate or ‘‘an invitation from the people of Iraq’’
for any such assignment.10 President Musharraf declared in September
2003 that Pakistan would not send its troops to Iraq if that made them
an extension of the US occupation. He said that Pakistan would send its
troops to Iraq ‘‘when there [was] a request from the Iraqis, when he [felt
that] the troops would be welcomed, when there [were] other Muslim
troops participating in a multi-lateral force, and when there [was] a Secu-
rity Council resolution authorizing such a force’’.11
In July 2004, the appointment of a Pakistani diplomat, Jahangir Ashraf
Qazi, as the UN representative in Iraq triggered speculation that the
appointment was part of a deal that Pakistan would make its troops avail-
able for Iraq. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan denied any such con-
nection. Meanwhile, Pakistan modified its earlier position on the supply
of troops by emphasizing three conditions: (1) Iraq’s interim government
should make a formal request for troops; (2) other Islamic countries
should commit their troops; (3) Pakistan’s parliament should approve
the dispatch of troops.12
Pakistan’s refusal to send troops to Iraq was partly caused by strong
domestic opposition to military involvement in Iraq. It was not just the
Islamic groups that opposed the deployment of Pakistani troops in Iraq;
most other political leaders and groups did not want to send troops to
Iraq as long as the United States maintained its control over Iraq. They
argued that Pakistani troops could not function in Iraq as an append-
age to US occupation troops there. The general consensus was that any
peacekeeping operation in Iraq should be undertaken under an appropri-
ate UN Security Council resolution.
Second, Pakistan was perturbed by the expansion of US goals in Iraq.
Initially, the United States described the main aim of its Iraq policy to
be the destruction of weapons of mass destruction. It was willing to
achieve this objective through the United Nations. Later, the United
States demanded the replacement of Saddam’s regime as a prerequisite
for destroying the weapons of mass destruction. It also began to talk
about deploying its troops in Iraq to achieve this objective. Subsequently,
the introduction of democracy was declared to be the goal in Iraq. This
implied the removal of Saddam’s regime from power and the installation
of a government that the United States considered to be democratic and
A PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVE 323
Positive signs
Though the United States was able to achieve its immediate objectives in
Iraq by using overwhelming military power, it could not muster enough
diplomatic support to obtain widespread acceptability of its success. A
military success devoid of positive diplomatic backup does not offer en-
during political dividends. Astute diplomacy, multifaceted peaceful inter-
action and a mutuality of interests are no less important than military
power for playing a sustainable role at the global level. The US military
triumph suffered from a diplomatic deficit.
The United States was not able to get UN Security Council endorse-
ment for its decision to attack Iraq. France (a permanent member of the
Security Council) and Germany (a non-permanent member of the Secu-
rity Council) openly questioned the US impatience for military action.
This perspective was supported by Russia and China (permanent mem-
bers of the Security Council). The absence of the required diplomatic
support made it difficult for the United States to cope with the post-war
problems in Iraq. One inescapable conclusion is that, despite what hap-
pened in Iraq, the role of diplomacy has not become redundant in global
affairs.
Another interpretation of the diplomatic opposition to US policies in
Iraq is that a new ‘‘pole’’ is gradually emerging in global politics that
will transform the US-centric ‘‘unipolar’’ system into a ‘‘multipolar’’ sys-
tem in which Russia, France, Germany and China coordinate their poli-
cies to restrain the United States at the global level. This pole is expected
to enjoy the moral support of international public opinion that was re-
flected in the anti-war protests during the course of the Iraq war in sev-
eral countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
A large number of other states expressed varying degrees of reserva-
tion about or criticism of the US action in Iraq without the explicit sanc-
tion of the Security Council. This engendered the hope that, despite the
A PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVE 325
Notes
July 2003; see also Dawn, 9 July 2003; Ijaz Hussain, ‘‘Should We Send Troops to Iraq?’’,
Daily Times, 9 July 2003.
11. Dawn, 27 September 2003.
12. Farhan Bokhari, ‘‘Troops for Iraq’’, News, 5 August 2004; see also Daily Times, 25 July
2004; and the editorial entitled ‘‘Troops for Iraq’’, Dawn, 26 July 2004.
13. Khaleej Times, 7 April 2003; see also Gulf News, 4 April 2003.
14. Hindu, 10 April 2003.
15. Gulf News, 11 April 2003.
16. News, 7 April 2004.
17. Dawn, 21 August 2003.
18. Dawn, 14 August 2004.
19. Nation (Lahore), 9 June 2004.
20. Warren Hoge, ‘‘UN Chief Says Iraq Elections Could Be Held within a Year’’, New York
Times, 24 February 2004. See also Warren Hoge and Steven R. Weisman, ‘‘Surprising
Choice for Premier of Iraq Reflects U.S. Influence’’, New York Times, 29 May 2004.
The new Iraqi Interim Government was installed on 28 June 2004.
20
Iraq and world order:
A perspective on
NATO’s relevance
Fred Tanner
Introduction
It is undeniable that the transatlantic dispute over the war in Iraq has al-
tered the horizons of international relations. It has changed the relation-
ship amongst the most powerful countries and between these countries
and the United Nations. By challenging some of the most fundamental
precepts of international law, the conflict itself has had a serious and far-
reaching impact on the ‘‘world order’’, the full implications of which
probably still remain to be thought through.1
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not play any es-
sential role in the US-led war on Iraq. Nor did it play a role in the US
retaliation against the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Thus, the ques-
tion arises of how relevant NATO will be as an international security
institution in the twenty-first century and what its standing will be in the
post-Iraq world order. With the disappearance of the Soviet Union and,
thereby, of collective defence as NATO’s main ‘‘raison d’être’’, the At-
lantic Alliance has been looking during the past 15 years for new roles
and missions. NATO continues to be relevant through its expansion east-
wards. Its membership during the Cold War of 15 grew in 1999 to 19
members to include Central European states and then in 2004 to 26
members to include, among others, the Baltic states, formerly part of the
Soviet Union.
Today the United States is the only superpower and Europe is no
328
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 329
longer one of its major strategic concerns. The Atlantic Alliance is a pri-
mary ‘‘victim’’ of this development. The 2002 National Security Strategy
of the United States of America elevates the defeat of ‘‘global terrorism’’
to the top US security policy priority. Within this rationale, the United
States would accept an ongoing commitment to NATO only if it is ‘‘able
to act wherever our interests are threatened’’.2
Europe, in contrast, is preoccupied with the consolidation of its en-
larged Union, which encompasses an additional population of 100 million
stretching from the Baltic sea to Central Europe, the Mediterranean
and soon also to the Eastern Balkans. It tries to deal with its unstable
neighbourhood with partnership-building in the political, economic, de-
velopment and ‘‘soft security’’ domains. The European Union has also
developed a security policy and is trying to give some depth and military
operations capabilities to its European Security and Defence Policy
(ESDP).
In order to explore various perspectives of where NATO is heading,
and what kinds of role and mission it will be able to play in a US-centric
world order, I shall first discuss the spectre of irrelevance on the one
hand and the transatlantic dispute over Iraq on the other. I shall then ex-
amine where NATO could add value to the world community’s quest for
peace and security.
A spectre is haunting NATO, not the spectre of peace but the spectre of
irrelevance. The terrorist attacks on the heartland of America and the
military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have demonstrated to the
Atlantic Alliance the considerable problems in finding a consensus on
collective security. The United States is not prepared to fight its wars
through NATO any more. At the same time, the Iraq war has triggered
profound intra-Alliance disagreements on topics such as the role of the
use of force, international law and multilateral engagements.
During the Cold War, the Atlantic Alliance was the basic instrument of
the West to ‘‘keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans
down’’.3 All of these objectives are obsolete today. Russia is in a process
of profound transformation and has neither an interest nor the power any
more to threaten the ‘‘West’’. Germany has become a ‘‘normal’’ country,
is deeply integrated into European Union structures and will face eco-
330 FRED TANNER
nomic problems for many years to come. Finally, the United States is
withdrawing most of its forces from Europe because the Euro-Atlantic
area has lost its strategic relevance to the United States.
The transatlantic security relationship today is too diverse and too
extensive for NATO to handle. Global issues such as the fight against
terrorism, the relationship with Russia and China or issue areas related
to the Middle East, including Iraq and Israel/Palestine, are not compre-
hensively dealt with in NATO. Here other mechanisms such as the G-8,
US–European summits or bilateral relations with the United States are
more in demand than NATO.
This reduced role for NATO in international security affairs contrasts
with its role in the 1990s, when it found a key mission in the Balkans to
manage and finally overcome the successive wars in the former Yugosla-
via. NATO’s intervention in Kosovo – the first war NATO had fought in
its 50-year history – left two footprints on NATO as a regional and inter-
national security institution, footprints that continue to have serious con-
sequences for NATO’s future. First, NATO used force against Serbia
without UN Security Council authorization. The ensuing legitimacy issue
tarnished NATO’s reputation, irrespective of the ‘‘retroactive’’ UN Secu-
rity Council Resolution 1244 (1999).4 Second, the NATO bombardment
of Serbian forces in Kosovo and throughout Serbia demonstrated the in-
effectiveness of a war conducted ‘‘by committee’’. The military operation
was subject to the consensus of all 19 member states and, according to
General Wesley Clark, who was in charge of the operation, ‘‘each bomb
dropped represented a target that had been approved, at least in theory,
by each of the alliance’s 19 governments’’.5
After the Yugoslav wars, the United States and Europe began drifting
apart for a number of reasons. The strategic convergence of the post–
Cold War era had come to an end: Europe was focusing on its wider
neighbourhood, whereas the United States was concentrating on global
strategic questions. This drifting apart was accelerated by the Bush ad-
ministration’s neoconservative agenda, which emphasized the use of mil-
itary force abroad. For Europeans, the constants and imperatives in their
international conduct are the construction of a liberal and civil European
model, multilateralism and international law. For the United States, in
contrast, ‘‘support for universal rules of behaviour really is a matter of
idealism’’.6
With the terrorist attacks on the United States of 11 September 2001
NATO invoked for the first time in its history the collective defence
clause – Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – but not much happened as
a consequence of this ‘‘historic event’’. Formally, the United States
acknowledged that NATO’s invocation of Article 5 demonstrated ‘‘the
commitment of America’s partners to collective defence, which bolsters
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 331
garia, Poland and Romania, also supported the US position – these coun-
tries have subsequently become NATO members. These dramatic events
were played out in the UN Security Council, the international media and
national capitals, against a backdrop of massive anti-war demonstrations,
running to millions of people, on almost every continent.
Therefore, there was no shared NATO position on Iraq at any stage
during the crisis. NATO’s paralysis almost turned lethal with the short
but intense controversy over Turkey’s request for NATO’s assistance in
strengthening Turkey’s defensive capabilities against potential retaliatory
attacks by Iraq in the event of a US attack. The failure of NATO to sup-
port Turkey with defensive means has led to widespread warnings of
‘‘The End of NATO’’.10 In fact, Belgium, in the name of three European
NATO countries, vetoed the deployment of AWACS reconnaissance
planes and Patriot anti-missile batteries to Turkey. Turkey had appealed
to its allies for help under NATO Article 4, fearing an Iraqi attack as a
response to the impending US-led invasion against Saddam Hussein’s re-
gime. France, Germany and Belgium opposed Turkey’s request because
they felt that their support – before the adoption of an enabling UN
resolution – would legitimize unilateral US pre-emption in Iraq.11
The positions of the NATO members with regard to Iraq largely re-
mained defined in relation to the United States. Poland and the United
Kingdom played a significant role in Iraq.12 France and Germany, in con-
trast, insisted on an enhanced role for the United Nations.13 Moreover,
France made the point that NATO was ‘‘simply not the right place’’
for decisions on Iraq once sovereignty was returned by its occupying
powers.14 The German government expressed concern that NATO in-
volvement in Iraq would overstretch troops and resources, given that
commitments already exist in Afghanistan, in Kosovo and for fighting
‘‘terrorism’’. The conflicting perspectives of NATO countries were only
superficially addressed at the Istanbul NATO Summit in June 2004.
NATO’s main deficit remains the lack of a shared strategic vision among
all partners.
The new ‘‘threats agenda’’ and Iraq have presented an enormous chal-
lenge to NATO because it does not have the capability to cope with a
plethora of security problems in transatlantic relations and globally. In
this section I shall discuss the difficulties of finding strategic convergence
in threat assessments and identify areas where NATO may be able to
preserve its relevance in international security.
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 333
small arms and light weapons and other activities in the area of civil–
military partnership-building. Institutional frameworks for soft security
cooperation include the Partnership for Peace and the Mediterranean Di-
alogue, which was elevated at the Istanbul Summit to a ‘‘Partnership’’.
The launching of a Partnership Action Plan on Defence Institution Build-
ing (PAP-DIB), intended primarily for Central Asian partners, belongs
to this category.
These areas of activity are becoming ever more important to NATO,
particularly with regard to the increasing efforts to promote governance
and democratic reform in countries adjacent to the Alliance. In a speech
to a Ukrainian audience, the NATO Secretary General defined NATO
as ‘‘an organisation that protects the values that underlie our societies:
Freedom of speech, democratic participation, human rights and the rule
of law’’.26 However, democracy promotion is an activity that encounters
important competition from other international organizations, notably
the European Union, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations. NATO’s Membership Action
Plan (MAP) has also acquired the status of a normative reference for
countries outside the enlarged NATO, particularly for Ukraine, countries
in the Balkans and possibly also countries in the Caucasus and Central
Asia.27
NATO, its Partnership for Peace (PfP) and the EAPC remain indis-
pensable forums for the promotion of interoperability, standardization
and mission management, not just for NATO operations but also for
EU missions and possibly also for future UN missions. NATO has also
created institutional arrangements for bilateral consultations with Russia
and Ukraine. The 2002 NATO–Russia Council followed on from earlier
attempts in the 1990s to institutionalize relations between the former en-
emies. The Council allows Russia to interact with NATO on a one-to-one
basis on security issues ranging from counter-terrorism to conflict man-
agement in areas of mutual interest. This institutional interface is increas-
ingly competing with the OSCE, which sees itself as the guardian of com-
prehensive security in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian regions.
At the Istanbul Summit, NATO agreed on three ‘‘soft power’’ initia-
tives in order to assume a greater presence in the Mediterranean and
the Middle East. The first was an effort – which falls far short of a
‘‘Greater Middle East Initiative’’ – to deepen the existing NATO Medi-
terranean Dialogue with seven countries in North Africa and the Middle
East and to transform it into a genuine Partnership. It is not yet clear
what the ‘‘deepening’’ should entail, particularly in view of the sombre
mood of some Arab states regarding the US occupation of Iraq. For-
mally, the objectives of the Partnership are dialogue, interoperability,
defence reform and the fight against terrorism.
The second was the ‘‘Istanbul Cooperation Initiative’’. With this initia-
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 337
tive NATO reached out for the first time to countries of the Middle East
and the Gulf states (‘‘the broader Middle East region’’). The objective
was ‘‘to develop the ability of countries’ forces to operate with those of
the Alliance including by contributing to NATO-led operations, fight
against terrorism, stem the flow of WMD materials and illegal trafficking
in arms, and improve countries’ capabilities to address common chal-
lenges and threats with NATO’’.28
NATO’s third offer was to train the new Iraqi army. At the 2004 G-8
Summit at Sea Island, France opposed any NATO commitment that
would endorse the military presence of US forces in Iraq. It continued
to stonewall progress of the NATO Training Implementation Mission in
Iraq (NTIM-I) by opposing the creation of a NATO training academy in
Iraq. France argued that its costs should be covered only by those NATO
allies that are part of the US-led coalition.29
Human trafficking is the latest initiative that NATO is trying to assume
as part of its new policy orientation towards soft power and human secu-
rity. The initiative aspires to provide normative guidance to NATO-led
personnel, both civilian (including police) and military. The proposed
guidelines would include the existing UN Protocol to Prevent, Suppress
and Punish Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and Children.30
The United States and Norway proposed this initiative, which was ap-
proved by the North Atlantic Council on 9 June 2004 and by all 46
members of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council on 16 June 2004. The
comparative advantage of NATO’s launching this kind of initiative is to
carry it from its conceptual origins within the North Atlantic Council to
the legitimacy of the 46-state platform of the EAPC, then to insert it in
the curriculums of their defence colleges and peacekeeping centres, and
finally to implement it in NATO-led field operations.
sions in the Balkans (the Kosovo Force, KFOR) and in Afghanistan (the
International Security Assistance Force, ISAF). NATO’s operations in
both cases are ‘‘robust’’, i.e. the mission spectrum ranges from peace-
keeping to the threat and the use of coercive measures against spoilers.
KFOR and ISAF have shown that NATO is capable of conflict pre-
vention, robust peace operations and peacebuilding. NATO can project
forces for long-term stability operations and it can provide the planning,
force generation and mission-intensity continuum of operations in com-
plex emergencies and peace operations. In Afghanistan, NATO has also
embraced a new model of civil–military cooperation with the Provincial
Reconstruction Teams.
Without a secure environment, serious state-building efforts have no
chance of success. For instance, only NATO was able to provide security
guarantees to Macedonians and Albanians in the wake of the Ohrid
Framework Agreement in Macedonia in 2001. Operations ‘‘Essential
Harvest’’ and ‘‘Amber Fox’’ were key to the disarmament and stabiliza-
tion measures taken in that fragile country. Even though the European
Union replaced NATO in Macedonia and also in Bosnia, the Atlantic
Alliance is the only organization that could intervene effectively in the
region should a deadly conflict break out again. Thus, the need for an in-
direct NATO presence in the area will remain until the countries of the
region have integrated into both NATO and the European Union.
Future demand for peace operations will depend very much on NATO’s
performance in Afghanistan. The Istanbul Summit confirmed that Af-
ghanistan will remain the priority. However, the inability of NATO to
raise sufficient troops and resources to contribute in a meaningful way
to the country’s stabilization, especially in provincial regions, means that
the Afghan situation is likely to receive members’ main attention for
some time to come.32 More demand for peace operations will most likely
come to the United Nations for robust missions in Africa. NATO Secre-
tary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stresses NATO’s relevance for the
United Nations also in the context of the United Nations’ current re-
form efforts and the recommendations of the UN Secretary-General’s
Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change: ‘‘As
the United Nations looks at how to implement the panel’s recommenda-
tions, I am convinced that NATO, with its unparalleled experience and
expertise, will feature high up on the United Nations’ list of preferred
suppliers.’’33
forces for missions across the conflict spectrum. NATO’s future capabil-
ities will depend on several factors. First, the deployability of forces needs
to be increased. Of 1.5 million soldiers theoretically available from Euro-
pean member states for NATO operations, fewer than 100,000 can actu-
ally be deployed. At the 2002 Transformation Summit in Prague, NATO
leaders unanimously agreed to the creation of a NATO Response Force
– a fully interoperable and integrated high-readiness capability, able to
act as ‘‘the first boots on the ground’’ in the Alliance’s full conflict spec-
trum. This force should be ready for deployment in the autumn of 2006.
In order to increase the general deployability of NATO forces, the mem-
ber states agreed at the Istanbul Summit to make 40 per cent of their
troops deployable on Alliance operations and 8 per cent instantly deploy-
able.34 Second, Europeans have to spend more on defence. European
countries in NATO spend about one-third as much on defence as the
United States. Third, NATO members have to rethink the organization
of their national armed forces. Countries such as Germany still maintain
a conscript system that puts political and practical constraints on sustain-
able force deployments. Fourth, future NATO capabilities depend on the
relationship with the European Union and vice versa. NATO will not be
able to achieve its capability objectives if the European Union increases
its demand for autonomously deployable forces within its European Se-
curity and Defence Policy (ESDP) and the ‘‘battlegroup’’ concept. In re-
cent years, the European Union has been using civilian and military
ESDP contingents in Bosnia, Macedonia and the Congo.
The effectiveness of NATO in the twenty-first century will also depend
on its working relations with other institutions involved in crisis manage-
ment. The relationship with the United Nations will be a key for NATO’s
future. NATO could assume the function of a resource organization for
the United Nations around the globe. NATO could also be used as a
framework at the military level for integrating non-NATO countries in
robust peacekeeping missions that would rely on NATO rules of engage-
ment and command and control. The legal basis for this practice was
established by UN Security Council Resolution 1244, annex 2 (10 June
1999). The Istanbul Summit confirmed this NATO objective by encour-
aging the new partner states from the Middle East and the Gulf states to
an ‘‘additional participation . . . in NATO-led peace-support operations
on a case-by-case basis’’.
NATO could also assume a lead role in the context of the G-8 Action
Plan for Expanding Global Capacity for Peace Support Operations. The
programme calls for providing ‘‘interoperability training for peace opera-
tions, combating organised crime and border control and to improve the
UN ability to provide peace and stabilities through chapter VII opera-
tions’’.35 In order make better preparations for its cooperation with the
United Nations, NATO is participating in bi-annual high-level meetings
340 FRED TANNER
Conclusions
For NATO, the period of collective defence is over: it has ‘‘lost an en-
emy’’ but has ‘‘not yet found a role’’.40 At the same time, NATO, and
transatlantic relations more generally, experienced a very serious blow
over the war in Iraq and in particular over questions related to the use
of force, the legitimacy of intervention and the role of the United Nations
in global and regional security issues. The European allies struggle over
how to deal with US power, while, for the Americans, Europe has lost
much of its strategic relevance. This asymmetry is accentuated by diverg-
ing threat perceptions: since 9/11 the United States is ‘‘at war’’, whereas
the Europeans have a more diffuse and differentiated perspective on new
threats and challenges.
What role can NATO play in the US-centric world order? This chapter
suggests that NATO should be able to remain a relevant security institu-
tion provided that it is prepared to act globally and muster the necessary
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 341
Notes
1. See, for example, Richard Falk, ‘‘Opposition to War against Iraq’’, Transnational Foun-
dation for Peace and Future Research, 20 September 2002, hhttp://www.transnational.
org/forum/meet/2002/Falk_AgainstIraqWar.htmli; Richard Falk and David Krieger,
‘‘After the Iraq War: Thinking Ahead’’, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 1 May 2003,
hhttp://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2003/05/01_falk_after-iraq.htmi.
342 FRED TANNER
2. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: The
White House, September 2002), hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdfi.
3. NATO Secretary General Lord Ismay, 1948.
4. Albrecht Schnabel and Ramesh Thakur, Kosovo and the Challenge of Humanitarian
Intervention (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2000).
5. Wesley Clark, ‘‘An Army of One’’, Washington Monthly, September 2002.
6. Robert Kagan, ‘‘Power and Weakness,’’ Policy Review, No. 113 (June/July 2002).
7. Quadrennial Defense Review Report, US Department of Defense, 30 September 2001,
hhttp://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/qdr2001.pdfi.
8. The new member states are Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia
and Slovenia.
9. Ronald D. Asmus, ‘‘Rebuilding the Atlantic Alliance’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 5
(September/October 2003), p. 21.
10. See, for instance, ‘‘The End of NATO’’, Wall Street Journal, 10 February 2003.
11. In February 2003 France, Germany and Belgium issued a joint declaration that a NATO
accord on Turkey’s defences would ‘‘not in any way prejudge ongoing efforts’’ within
the framework of the existing UN resolution (UNSC Resolution 1441 on Iraq), which
abstains from authorizing the use of force.
12. When Poland assumed command of the Multinational Division in the south of Iraq as
part of the international stabilization force, NATO supported the mission with tasks
such as providing intelligence, logistics expertise, movement coordination, force genera-
tion and secure communications support. This support function did not, however, pro-
vide NATO with a presence in Iraq.
13. Recent reports suggest that France would require the United Nations to have ‘‘respon-
sibility for all operations’’ (‘‘No NATO Role before UN in Charge – France’’, Reuters,
6 April 2004).
14. John Chalmers, ‘‘Divisions on Iraq Cloud NATO’s Enlargement Party’’, Reuters, 3
April 2004.
15. ‘‘The Alliance’s Strategic Concept, Approved by the Heads of State and Government
participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. on 23rd
and 24th April 1999’’, NATO Press Release, NAC-S(99)65, 24 April 1999, hhttp://
www.nato.int/docu/pr/1999/p99-065e.htmi.
16. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO Secretary General, ‘‘Projecting Stability’’, speech to the
‘‘Defending Global Security’’ conference, Brussels, 17 May 2004, hhttp://www.nato.int/
docu/speech/2004/s040517a.htmi.
17. ‘‘NATO Affords Gains for U.S. Foreign, Security Policy’’, Washington File, 30 June
2004.
18. R. Nicholas Burns, ‘‘The New NATO and the Greater Middle East, Remarks at Confer-
ence on NATO and the Greater Middle East’’, Prague, 19 October 2003, hhttp://www.
state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2003/25602.htmi.
19. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO Secretary General, speech to the Munich Security
Conference, 12 February 2005, hhttp://www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.
php?menu_2005=&menu_konferenzen=&sprache=en&id=159&i.
20. See Julian Lindley-French, ‘‘The Ties That Bind’’, NATO Review, Istanbul Summit Spe-
cial, May 2004, p. 53, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/review/2003/issue3/english/art2.htmli.
21. Clark, ‘‘An Army of One’’.
22. For the text see Partnership Action Plan against Terrorism, NATO Basic Texts, 22 No-
vember 2002, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/b021122e.htmi.
23. ‘‘Istanbul Summit Communiqué, Issued by the Heads of State and Government partici-
pating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council’’, NATO Press Release (2004) 096,
28 June 2004, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2004/p04-096e.htmi.
A PERSPECTIVE ON NATO’S RELEVANCE 343
24. Ibid.
25. NATO supported the ‘‘aims of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and its State-
ment of Interdiction Principles to establish a more co-ordinated and effective basis
through which to impede and stop shipments of WMD, delivery systems, and related
materials flowing to and from states and non-state actors of proliferation concern’’
(Ibid.).
26. Speech by Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO Secretary General, National University of
Kyiv-mohyla Academy Kyiv, Ukraine, 20 October 2005, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/
speech/2005/s051020a.htmi.
27. Heiner Hänggi and Fred Tanner, ‘‘Promoting Security Sector Governance in the EU’s
Neighbourhood’’, Chaillot Paper No. 80 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security
Studies, July 2005).
28. Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, NATO Policy Document, Istanbul Summit, 28 June
2004, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/comm/2004/06-istanbul/docu-cooperation.htmi. The
suggested areas of cooperation include NATO-sponsored border security; access to ap-
propriate Partnership for Peace (PfP) programmes and training centres; and promoting
cooperation in the areas of civil emergency planning (offering NATO training courses
on civil emergency planning, civil–military coordination, and crisis response to mari-
time, aviation and surface threats; invitations to join or observe relevant NATO/PfP
exercises as appropriate; and provision of information on possible disaster assistance).
29. ‘‘France and Belgium Block NATO Iraq Training Plan’’, Financial Times, 18–19 Sep-
tember 2004.
30. See NATO Policy on Combating Trafficking in Human Beings, NATO Policy document,
29 June 2004, Appendix 1, hhttp://www.nato.int/docu/comm/2004/06-istanbul/docu-traffic.
htmi.
31. Carl Bildt, ‘‘We Must Build States and Not Nations’’, Financial Times, 16 January 2004.
32. ‘‘Afghan Troubles Will Test NATO’s Quest for New Role’’, Financial Times, 27 May
2004.
33. NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, ‘‘A Transforming Alliance’’, speech
delivered to the Cambridge Union Society, Cambridge, 2 February 2005, hhttp://www.
nato.int/docu/speech/2005/s050202b.htmi.
34. ‘‘Those Who Can’t Fight, Train’’, The Economist, 3 July 2004, p. 38.
35. G8 Action Plan: Expanding Global Capability for Peace Support Operations, G8 Sum-
mit, Sea Island, GA, 10 June 2004; available at hhttp://www.g8.utoronto.ca/summit/
2004seaisland/peace.htmli.
36. A Secure Europe in a Better World, European Security Strategy, Brussels, adopted by
the European Council on 12 December 2003, p. 6, hhttp://ue.eu.int/uedocs/cmsUpload/
78367.pdfi.
37. Lindley-French, ‘‘The Ties That Bind’’, p. 51.
38. The Berlin Plus agreement regulates the use of NATO assets and other capabilities in
crisis management operations that are led by the European Union.
39. Chris Patten, ‘‘A Security Strategy for Europe’’, Oxford Journal on Good Governance,
Vol. 1, No. 1 (2004), p. 13.
40. The Economist, 26 June 2004, p. 15.
41. Clark, ‘‘An Army of One’’.
42. Peter Struck, ‘‘The Future of NATO’’, speech at the 40th Munich Conference on Secu-
rity Policy, 7 February 2004, hhttp://www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.php
?menu_2004=&menu_konferenzen=&sprache=en&id=125&i.
21
The Iraq crisis and world order:
A perspective from the
European Union
Luis Martinez
344
A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION 345
In the first place, Iraq was not considered to be a dangerous state. Rather
it was a destroyed state where the population faced great adversity. Con-
templating a new war against Iraq meant accepting that once again its
population would suffer new traumas. Whereas US opinion was seem-
ingly indifferent to the humanitarian consequences of the sanctions im-
posed on Iraq, Europeans were informed about the plight of this country.
For five years after the Gulf war of 1991, Iraq was subjected to a total
embargo, with devastating socio-economic impacts on the population.
As a result of UN Resolution 687 (3 April 1991), the US administration
imposed a quasi-total embargo that seemed to be more of a collective
punishment rather than real economic sanctions. The embargo was the
most severe of the century – not even the Versailles treaty went so far.
Certainly, the conquerors of Germany had amputated its territory, ob-
liged it to pay reparations and blocked its military power, but nothing im-
peded it from re-establishing regular commercial relations and rebuilding
its infrastructure. In Iraq, although it was authorized to export a small
amount of oil, at a price set by the United Nations, the international com-
munity prohibited the import of the necessary materials for restarting
refineries and electricity power stations, arguing that these materials
could have had ‘‘dual’’ civil and military use. Basic medication and com-
modities were blocked under the pretext that they could be used for the
fabrication of chemical weapons. Owing to a lack of aerosols, asthma be-
came a deadly disease. It is estimated that approximately 500,000 chil-
dren under the age of five paid with their lives for the severity of the
embargo. In 1996, when US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was
questioned in front of the cameras about the human cost of the sanctions
and the death of 500,000 children, she answered: ‘‘I think this is a very
hard choice, but the price – we think the price is worth it.’’3 In 1995, the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and UNICEF
announced that 4 million Iraqis were living in a state of ‘‘pre-starvation’’
and that the lives of 1 million, particularly children, were threatened.
To relieve the suffering of civilians, an ‘‘Oil-for-Food’’ programme was
set up in 1996. One of the conditions was that 25 per cent of the oil
revenues should be directed to Kuwait for war reparations. In order to
supervise the programme, a large number of inspectors were mobilized.
After 1996 the Iraqi authorities were authorized to sell US$2 billion of
A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION 347
oil every six months, and in 1998 the authorized amount was increased to
US$5 billion. Iraqi oil was sold mainly through trade companies (83 per
cent) and its main client (60 per cent of exports under UN supervision)
was the US market. Iraq nevertheless succeeded in appropriating US$2.5
billion each year from the oil revenues without the United Nations’
knowledge.
Loulouwa el Rashid describes three stages of economic recovery.4 The
first, 1995–1996, was a period of inflation. The government printed money
as a redistribution method but this caused the collapse of the Iraqi dinar.
Moreover, the government used up strategic stocks accumulated during
the war against Iran and goods appropriated from Kuwait at the time of
its invasion. In short, during this period the regime relied on its reserves.
It was also during this period that the government encouraged smuggling
and deregulated external trade. The second period, 1997–1998, was char-
acterized by an increase in external trade, reflected in massive imports of
commodities. The market improved and the shortages of products and
goods of the 1993–1995 years started to disappear. The third period
started in 1998 and was characterized by a disengagement of the state
(privatization of the public sector, enterprise self-financing, financial self-
sufficiency, remuneration of civil servants according to results, etc.). The
regime was successful in supplying some of the needs of the population.
From this point of view, the Bush administration’s determination to
overthrow the regime seemed incomprehensible. In the face of the Ira-
nian or North Korean menace, how was it possible to claim that Iraq
was a danger? No Iraqis figured among the 9/11 terrorists and yet it was
the Iraqi regime that was made out to be a threat. This lack of expla-
nation led European opinion to vacillate between growing scepticism
(which would become total mistrust among the French, Germans, Span-
ish and Italians) and moderate understanding (in the UK and the
Scandinavian countries). In general, the Bush administration’s interest
in launching the war against Iraq would seem to have been the result of
psychological factors (finishing Bush senior’s work), therapeutic factors
(overcoming the trauma of 9/11), economic factors (taking control of oil
resources) and military factors (establishing US supremacy in the re-
gion). The war against Iraq was not considered to be a ‘‘just war’’, and
mistrust turned to hostility when, in the face of the German, French and
Russian refusal to support the war in Iraq in the Security Council, Con-
doleezza Rice was quoted as allegedly saying ‘‘we must punish France,
ignore Germany and forgive Russia’’.5
stored the rudimentary rationing system that had existed before the war
and delivered more than 1.5 million tons of food between May and July
2003. However, supplies of water and electricity and the treatment of
waste water have not reached pre-war standards.10 This has aroused re-
sentment among the population. In fact, by August 2003 more than 585
schools had been rehabilitated and all the universities had reopened,11
but, for a country ruined by two decades of war, sanctions and a war of
‘‘liberation’’, the lack of progress on reconstruction projects does not give
the population confidence in a rapid improvement in the socio-economic
situation.12 Only Iraqis who are able to enlist in the security forces or in
the oil sector can expect an improvement in their living conditions.
Even worse, the destruction of cities and districts that support the in-
surgency has provoked waves of refugees to the interior of the country
and an already weakened population is sinking into an ever more precar-
ious situation. The reconstruction of Iraq is undoubtedly the most impor-
tant challenge for its future. Yet it is clear that, even though Europe
could play a major role in this, it is not happening, owing to the lack of
convergence between the Iraqi government, the Bush administration and
the European Union.
The American intervention has touched the moral, symbolic and material compo-
nents of the national power. The manifestation of the first element was illustrated
by the dissolution of the Iraqi army – emblem of the State power – by the occu-
pation forces; the second element lies in the total paralysis of Iraq’s economic and
industrial sectors after the destruction of its infrastructure. It is like this that Iraq
continued and continues to be emptied of all possibilities that will allow it to re-
constitute the elements of a sovereign independent State.15
the south and the Sunnis in the ‘‘resistance triangle’’. The lack of trust
between the coalition forces and Iraqi society reinforces the most alarm-
ist visions among opposition members who find in violence the only way
to bring an end to violence.
For European public opinion, the departure of the coalition forces would
endorse the feeling of fairness that sustained their opposition to the war.
But for the European Union the viability of Iraq would be threatened if
the United States withdrew. The reasoning is simple: the Iraqi guerrilla
forces are growing all the time. Those in charge of the US administration
increasingly express surprise and astonishment in the face of the continu-
ation of this resistance. Whereas the war against Saddam Hussein’s re-
gime was carefully prepared, the war against the guerrillas was not. Far
from weakening, the insurgent groups have increased their troops and
their capacity to inflict harm. The number of armed coalition victims con-
tinues to grow (1,250 deaths and 10,000 injured). From this point of view,
the gradual withdrawal of the coalition forces becomes a possible option
in the short term. Beyond the costs of war, the absence of a conclusive
victory leads to the fear of dealing with a never-ending guerrilla war.
However, the hope that a viable Iraqi security organ could take over
from the coalition forces is fading away. It is clear that the coalition
forces are caught up in a war against a section of Iraqi society that is di-
rectly challenging the occupying forces, the Sunni Arabs, and another
section, the Shiites, who are manipulating the political process to gain
power and to demand the removal of US troops. In the long term, the
US presence is not viable because it is deeply rejected.
The paradox is that departure of the US forces troubles the Iraqis.
There is a very real fear that a civil war would ensue. From this perspec-
tive, there appears to be a similarity with the withdrawal of Soviet troops
from Afghanistan after establishing a pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. As in
Kabul, the pro-US government in Baghdad would not resist the attacks
of the opposition for long.17 The seizing of Baghdad by the insurgents
would considerably weaken the war against terrorism launched by the
Bush administration. For the Islamist movements, such a victory would
mean that the US forces, just like the Soviets in Afghanistan, are just
‘‘paper tigers’’. For Europe, such an eventuality would seriously desta-
bilize the ‘‘conservative’’ regimes of the Middle East. The premature
withdrawal of the US troops would thus represent the worst scenario if
it accompanied a civil war in Iraq. This probability would recall the with-
drawal of Israeli troops from Beirut, after which Lebanon descended into
the chaos of civil war and regional conflicts.
354 LUIS MARTINEZ
For Europe, the issue is to convince the Bush administration that military
force alone is useless in the face of resistance by a society. Like many
other states (India in Kashmir, Israel in Palestine, Russia in Chechnya),
the United States is confronted with the delusion of the military solution.
These conflicts remind us of the stalemate of the armed option. The
military response to the insurgency (for example, the destruction of the
cities of Samara and Fallujah) is an acknowledgement of political power-
lessness. The inability of the coalition forces to formulate political op-
tions flexible enough to be accepted in Iraq demonstrates a policy based
on imposition by force. The construction of a peace plan requires this
policy to be questioned. Such a plan should not be proof of the failure
of the US project in Iraq, but would acknowledge that developments in
Iraq necessarily affect the stability of the region.
From this point of view, the international community must take some
share of the responsibility; it should not just accept that the occupier,
the United States, is responsible. Moreover, politically and economically,
there is very little hope of the situation becoming stable. The interna-
tional conference at Sharm el Sheikh on 22 and 23 November 2004 high-
lighted a series of announcements and principles. In the first place, EU
Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner recalled that ‘‘one of my first tasks is
the European Union’s support to the preparation of credible and truly
competitive elections in Iraq. It is essential that polling . . . should take
place in all parts of the country’’.18 The European Union has become in-
volved (politically, economically and financially) in the Iraqi conflict. But
is it possible successfully to construct a peace plan for Iraq?
First, it is necessary to bring to an end the illusory idea that Iraq is the
front-line in the war against Islamist terrorism. Secondly, it is necessary
to consider the nationalist sentiment in Iraq that makes any kind of for-
eign occupation unbearable. Finally, one needs to start from the principle
that the political system should be applicable to all communities and mi-
norities. Such a plan cannot be created in a political climate where inse-
curity and a state of occupation prevail. The legitimacy of the new Iraqi
political institutions remains weak owing to the presence of US troops.
To ensure greater legitimacy it would be wiser to leave the management
of this political transfer in the hands of the United Nations. For historical
and diplomatic reasons, the United States does not have available a stock
of sympathy in Iraq that could allow it successfully to carry out the Iraqi
transition. It would therefore be appropriate to call on the United Na-
tions again to reach a consensus on ways of approaching the presence of
foreign forces in Iraq. The Bush administration’s unilateralism consti-
tutes a serious problem for the construction of peace in Iraq.
A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION 355
Conclusion
Notes
1. WMD in Iraq. Evidence and Implications (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, January 2004).
2. Daniel Brumberg, Moyen-Orient: L’enjeu démocratique (Paris: Michalon, 2003).
3. An interview with Madeleine Albright by Leslie Stahl, ‘‘60 Minutes’’, 12 May 1996.
4. Françoise Rigaud, ‘‘Irak: Le temps suspendu de l’embargo’’, Critique internationale, No.
11 (1998).
5. See, for example, Toby Harnden, ‘‘Americans Find Ways to Punish the French’’, Daily
Telegraph, 25 April 2003.
6. Philip H. Gordon, Iraq: The Transatlantic Debate, Occasional Papers No. 39 (Paris: Eu-
ropean Union Institute for Security Studies, December 2002), p. 16.
7. Commission of the European Communities, ‘‘Communication from the Commission to
the Council and the European Parliament: The Madrid Conference on Reconstruction
in Iraq, 24 October 2003’’, COM (2003) 575, Brussels, 1 October 2003, hhttp://europa.
eu.int/comm/external_relations/iraq/intro/com03_575en.pdfi (accessed 2 February
2006).
8. ‘‘European Union Factsheet: EU Support for Iraq’’, June 2005, hhttp://ue.eu.int/uedocs/
cmsUpload/Factsheet-Iraq-June2005.pdfi.
9. Coalition Provisional Authority, hhttp://www.cpa-iraq.org/i.
10. Iraqi Interim Government, hhttp://www.iraqigovernment.org/reconstruction.htmi.
11. See ‘‘100 Days of Progress in Iraq’’, hwww.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/part5.htmli.
12. The unemployment rate varies from 25 per cent to 50 per cent of the active population
356 LUIS MARTINEZ
depending on the estimate (‘‘Reconstructing Iraq’’, Middle East Report No. 30, Interna-
tional Crisis Group, Brussels, 2 September 2004).
13. Samir Haddad and Mazin Ghazi, ‘‘An Inventory of Iraqi Resistance Groups: Who
Kills Hostages in Iraq?’’, Al Zawra (Baghdad), 19 September 2004, hhttp://www.
freeArabvoice.orgi.
14. Scott Ritter, ‘‘A Weapons Inspector Saw ‘Blueprints’ for Monday’s Insurgency’’, Chris-
tian Science Monitor, 10 November 2003.
15. Nabil Mohamed Salim, lecture at CEI-Sciences-Po, Paris, June 2005.
16. Ibid.
17. ‘‘Given their extreme frailty, Iraqi institutions would probably not survive a precipitous
disengagement, handing the insurgents a significant victory’’ (‘‘What Can the U.S. Do in
Iraq?’’, Middle East Report No. 34, International Crisis Group, Brussels, 22 December
2004).
18. Cited in ‘‘Sharm el Sheikh: The EU Offers Iraq Support and Partnership’’, 22 Novem-
ber 2004, at hhttp://www.delsyr.cec.eu.int/en/whatsnew/detail.asp?id=91i (accessed 3
May 2006).
19. As Javier Solana emphasizes: ‘‘In no way does this new Union responsibility move it
away from the original European project based on the values of peace, law, justice and
democracy. My conviction is entirely the opposite: it is these very values that the Union
embodies and seeks to promote in its international action, whether in the Balkans, in
the Middle East, in Africa, or with respect to Iraq. Develop a greater degree of interna-
tional justice and respect for law, build patiently the minimum conditions for good
governance and democracy, favour negotiation rather than conflict, but agree to inter-
vene and coerce when coercion becomes necessary: these are the strategic principles
on which the construction of the ESPD was founded five years ago’’ (EU Security and
Defense Policy: The First Five Years (1999–2004), Paris: EU Institute for Security
Studies, 2004, p. 10).
20. Arab Human Development Report 2002: Creating Opportunities for Future Genera-
tions, United Nations Development Programme, 2003, hhttp://hdr.undp.org/reports/
detail_reports.cfm?view=600i.
21. Anthony H. Cordesman, ‘‘The Bush Administration has touched upon all these issues in
its call for democracy in the Arab world, but the end result has been slogans rather than
substance . . . The end result is that the Administration’s efforts have generally appeared
in the region to be calls for regime change favourable to the US, rather than support for
practical reform’’ (‘‘The Transatlantic Alliance: Is 2004 the Year of the Greater Middle
East?’’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, 12 January
2004, hhttp://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_pubs&task=view&id=1363i, ac-
cessed 2 May 2006).
22. ‘‘In a matter of only a few years, Palestine will be one of two new Arab democratic
states. The other neonatal Arab democracy will be Iraq. These unthinkable develop-
ments will revolutionize the power dynamic in the Middle East, powerfully adding to
the effects of the liberation of Afghanistan to force Arab and Islamic regimes to increas-
ingly allow democratic reforms. A majority of Arabs will come to see America as the
essential ally in progressing liberty in their own lands’’ (Michael Kelly, Washington
Post, 26 June 2002; see also ‘‘Democracy Mirage in the Middle East’’, Carnegie Endow-
ment for International Peace, Washington DC, October 2002).
22
Quicksand? The United Nations
in Iraq, 2001–2005
David M. Malone and James Cockayne
Introduction
that Iraq had been and remained in ‘‘material breach’’ of its disarmament
obligations, and gave it one ‘‘final opportunity’’ to comply with those ob-
ligations, failing which it would face ‘‘serious consequences’’. Resolution
1441 required Iraq not only to agree to allow the inspections of the UN
Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) to re-
sume, but also to provide a complete and final disclosure of WMD activ-
ities. The Bush administration congratulated itself for what it considered
a neat trap: if Hussein admitted possessing WMD, he was acknowledging
a violation of UN resolutions; if he did not, he would be deceiving the
world, and again violating those resolutions.5 Either way, the United Na-
tions would have delivered the United States the legitimacy it sought for
armed intervention. (That, of course, assumed that Saddam Hussein did
have WMD. Ultimately, it was this misreading that hoist the United
States by its own non-existent petard.6)
At first, the apparent consensus embodied in Resolution 1441’s crea-
tively ambiguous language of ‘‘material breach’’ and ‘‘serious conse-
quences’’ held. Hussein delivered a document purporting to be a ‘‘full
disclosure’’ on time, by 7 December 2002, but Hans Blix, the UNMOVIC
head, reported on 27 January 2003 that ‘‘Iraq appears not to have come
to a genuine acceptance, not even today, of the disarmament that was de-
manded of it’’.7 In response, Iraq increased cooperation – and it was here
that the veneer of P-5 unity began to dissolve. France, Russia and China
pointed to limited UNMOVIC evidence as indicating the need for further
inspections, whereas the United States, and to a lesser extent the United
Kingdom, pointed to Iraqi behaviour, rather than specific evidence, as
the basis for moving from inspections to enforcement.8 US Secretary of
State Colin Powell presented a detailed dossier of evidence of Iraqi de-
ception to the Security Council on 5 February 20039 but when, on 14
February, Blix not only cast doubt on some of Powell’s claims but also
claimed that Iraq had decided to cooperate with inspectors the United
States derided the prospects of successful inspections.
Embarrassingly for the United States and the United Kingdom, the
United Nations’ agencies in UNMOVIC and the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) began to produce tentative evidence of Western
intelligence failures, visiting sites identified by the United States and the
United Kingdom without finding anything of substance.10 The IAEA de-
clared that Iraq was not in the process of reconstituting its nuclear pro-
gramme.11 The United States began to disagree openly with some of the
tactics adopted by the veteran Swedish lawyer-diplomat Hans Blix, who
had deliberately kept a greater distance from Western intelligence
agencies than had his predecessor at the UN Special Commission (UN-
SCOM), Richard Butler.12 Despite – or perhaps even because of – this
increasing gap between what the United Nations was producing (doubt)
and what the United States had sought from it (legitimacy), the United
360 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
head two growing sources of criticism of the United Nations. One cri-
tique held that the failure of the United Nations’ inspections-plus-
sanctions approach to Iraq proved the United Nations’ ineffectiveness
and growing irrelevance. Another held, almost conversely, that it was
the United Nations’ failure to contain the United States, rather than
Iraq, that proved its ineffectiveness and irrelevance. So serious was this
crisis of legitimacy that the Secretary-General decided to establish a
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, which reported in
December 2004, presenting member states with a number of ideas and
options for more effective UN action against global threats, including
suggestions for institutional reform. As we go to print, the ultimate out-
come of these creative recommendations remains in doubt, with the Sep-
tember 2005 World Summit having balked at clearly ruling in – or out –
many of the key reforms countenanced, with the notable exception of
accepting the creation of a Peace-Building Commission to coordinate
post-conflict recovery policy.
For most of 2003, the United Nations was largely sidelined on security
issues in Iraq. In early April, Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed
Rafeeuddin Ahmed – a low-key, senior Pakistani UN official with devel-
opment experience and admired for his wisdom – as his Special Adviser
to coordinate thinking on the role the United Nations could play in post-
conflict Iraq. This was highly controversial, because any significant UN
presence could arguably be seen as retrospectively legitimating the coali-
tion invasion. However, at a senior level the majority UN view was that,
regardless of the legality of the coalition action, the United Nations could
not shirk its humanitarian and peacebuilding vocations in Iraq. The coali-
tion, however, seemed uninterested in any significant UN role beyond
humanitarian assistance. A sensitive issue was the role the United Na-
tions could play in political transitions in Iraq, not least respecting the
end of coalition authority and military occupation. On 22 May 2003, the
Security Council adopted Resolution 1483, which legitimized the admin-
istrative role of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), while re-
questing the appointment by the Secretary-General of a Special Repre-
sentative to Iraq (SRSG). The SRSG was mandated to coordinate action
in the areas of humanitarian relief, reconstruction, infrastructure rehabil-
itation, legal and judicial reforms, human rights and the return of refu-
gees, and also to assist with civilian police.17 Additionally, the resolution
authorized the CPA, ‘‘working with’’ the SRSG, to appoint an interim
Iraqi administration.18
Annan appointed Sergio Vieira de Mello, the charismatic former head
of the United Nations’ post-conflict mission in East Timor (UNTAET) to
the key post of SRSG, taking him away from his responsibilities as UN
High Commissioner for Human Rights for a projected four months.
362 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
Soon after de Mello’s arrival in Baghdad, it became clear that the United
States would allow him only a very limited role in the development of a
permanent Iraqi constitution, the holding of elections and the establish-
ment of a government (thus rejecting a template for UN involvement de-
veloped in East Timor and applied in Afghanistan). The United Nations
was therefore to be confined almost exclusively to a technical role, with
the United States continuing to call the shots. This was not to be a UN
peace operation in any traditional sense.
In this uncertain atmosphere, Annan played a delicate diplomatic
game, carefully preparing the ground so that the United Nations would
have the support it needed in the capitals that mattered to move into
action on a broader footing when the time was right (clearly not yet).
He envisaged a broad, multidisciplinary assistance operation, going even
further than past peace operations by including the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund from the outset. In a report to the Security
Council on 17 July 2003, he set out a range of tasks that the United Na-
tions might undertake in Iraq in relation to the constitutional process,
judicial and legal reform, police training, the demobilization and reinte-
gration of former military forces, public administration, economic recon-
struction and sustainable development, and technical assistance and advi-
sory services to Iraqi ministries.19 These activities were to be discharged
by a UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), totalling around 300 lo-
cal and international staff. At the same time, Annan brought pressure
to bear on the coalition to lay out a clear timetable for the withdrawal
of occupying forces. Given the complex security situation in Iraq, it was
widely thought that any such withdrawal would ideally be followed by the
deployment of a significant UN security operation (if feasible in terms of
Iraqi sensitivities). Whether such a mission may one day be mandated re-
mains an open question today.
On 19 August 2003, the United Nations suffered the largest loss of life of
its civilian employees in its history. A massive truck-bomb was detonated
at the corner of the UNAMI headquarters in Baghdad, directly under de
Mello’s office, killing him and 21 others and wounding 150 more. The ter-
rorist attack shocked the UN community and cast doubt over the security
of its remaining staff in Iraq. After a second attack within a month left 20
injured, and with the International Red Cross headquarters in Baghdad
soon after being destroyed by a bomb attack, Annan radically downsized
the UN presence.20 An independent inquiry condemned what it de-
scribed as a failure to provide adequate security to UN staff in Iraq.21
THE UN IN IRAQ, 2001–2005 363
The bombing made clear that the United Nations’ existing security man-
agement structures were woefully inadequate and would need radical
surgery if the United Nations was to continue to play its key role within
some of the world’s hottest spots in an age of transnational terrorism.
Three key changes resulted from this report. First, in a much-
publicized move, Annan took strong disciplinary measures against senior
UN staff.22 Second, in an important but largely unheralded move away
from traditional doctrine, the United Nations countenanced engaging a
private firm to provide security for its global operations.23 Third, in Res-
olution 1546, adopted in early June 2004, the Security Council for the
first time supported the creation of a distinct component within a UN-
authorized multinational force devoted specifically to UN security.24
The attacks on UN staff made clear two other aspects of the new oper-
ational environment. First, the attacks signalled that the United Nations’
traditional image of impartiality was once again under attack, this time
from Islamic fundamentalists who saw the United Nations as a stooge of
Western interests. The United Nations had long been a target of violence
in states in which it operated. The United Nations had also learned, in
Bosnia and Rwanda, that impartiality cannot be equated with moral
equivalence among the parties to a conflict or with unwillingness to inter-
vene to prevent atrocities.25 Iraq cruelly reminded the United Nations
that some interventions would make even its most senior officials the tar-
get of violence.26 Second, the attacks drove home that terrorism posed a
fundamental threat not only to the United States but also to the United
Nations.27 The diffuse and asymmetric nature of terrorism calls for a dif-
ferent kind of international policing, with a greater focus on cooperative
regulation. As a consequence, some states are increasingly pushing to use
the Chapter VII powers of the Security Council not as the basis for UN
peacekeeping but as the basis for global legislation and regulation of ter-
rorism. This regulatory style emerged first in the 1990s with the establish-
ment of the ad hoc criminal tribunals and the Oil-for-Food programme in
Iraq, but it has moved to centre-stage with the establishment and opera-
tion of the Counter-Terrorism Committee under Resolution 1373 and
with the criminalization of activities resulting in the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction (WMD) under Resolution 1540.28 Thus, in
the future, UN peacekeeping may have to compete for scarce resources
with other forms of UN security regulation.
Terrorism also offers an entirely new set of parameters for UN peace
operations, as the Iraq experience makes clear.29 It offers a new justifica-
tion for UN intervention, not only as a response to state failure but also
as a measure to prevent state failure lest it provide the conditions for the
incubation of transnational terrorism. The rise of transnational terrorism
may also affect the strategies of state-building adopted by the United Na-
364 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
The attacks on the United Nations in Iraq in August and September 2003
were by no means isolated; they were part of a much wider deterioration
in security. The coalition appeared at times to drift from crisis to crisis,
unable to meet the most basic security needs of Iraq’s citizens and in-
creasingly abandoning its vaunted economic reconstruction objectives.34
An October 2003 resolution of the Security Council reaffirmed the ‘‘vital
role’’ of the United Nations in humanitarian relief, reconstruction, devel-
opment and the transition to representative government, but did not sig-
nificantly broaden its mandate beyond calling on the United Nations to
support the constitutional drafting processes established by the Iraqi
Governing Council.35 The resolution also authorized the presence of a
THE UN IN IRAQ, 2001–2005 365
What Next?
Over almost a quarter of a century, the United Nations has slid deeper
and deeper into the quicksand of Iraq, particularly as a result of its joy-
less embrace with the United States since the end of the Cold War. By
2003 the depth of the crisis had become clear, throwing the role of the
United Nations in maintaining world order starkly into question. Al-
though the flexibility and creative potential of the Secretary-General’s
good offices were once again demonstrated to be considerable, the Secu-
rity Council revealed itself prone to both ambiguous (Resolution 1441)
and unambiguous but unhelpful (Resolution 1546) compromises that did
little to paper over deep splits within the body, instead handing unachiev-
able tasks to the Secretariat. Council pronouncements, often initiated by
the occupying powers and weakly resisted at the margins by some other
Council members, increasingly smacked of a flight from reality as the sit-
uation within Iraq continued to deteriorate.
Nevertheless, recent years of often adverse developments on Iraq sug-
gest possible new directions for the United Nations in the security sphere
in years ahead. This final section of the chapter looks at the different
challenges confronting the United Nations and speculates on possible
new directions for the United Nations, centred on its (somewhat tat-
tered) global legitimacy and its (frequently impressive) technical exper-
tise, capitalizing on its network of global regulatory mechanisms and its
pivotal, if often unsuccessful, role in state-building. Above all, the re-
forms must aim to improve the universality of the UN framework and re-
store it to its central position as a forum for the peaceful resolution of
normative differences.
sistent with democratization, while, at the same time, seeing off terrorist
and ethnic threats to the existence of the state itself against a backdrop of
historically entrenched and widespread state corruption.
Perhaps most striking in 2004 was how openly the UN Secretariat
became involved with the process of political reconstruction in Iraq.
Whereas the Secretariat and subsidiary organs of the Council managed
the complex regulatory roles of inspections and sanctions prior to the
2003 crisis, the Secretariat’s role after the crisis was one of political bro-
kerage (even the search for Iraqi WMD was taken out of UN hands).
Since the end of the Cold War, UN peace operations have increasingly
been mandated in support of internal political processes, the organization
of elections and the defence of democracy, for example in Haiti, Cambo-
dia, El Salvador, Mozambique, Kosovo, East Timor and Afghanistan.42
Democracy has become both a reason for intervention and an exit strat-
egy: the holding of free and fair national elections, perhaps after a longer
democratic process of constitutional reform, marks one of the few clearly
agreed indicators of performance success in complex state-building peace
operations.
The evolutionary nature of this change has robbed it of media
coverage, although some acute observers in the academic community
have advanced helpful analysis, notably Elizabeth Cousens and Karin
Wermester, who argue – rightly in our view, though not uncontroversially
– that the type of peacebuilding in which the United Nations engages is
much more political in nature than are most developmental programmes
or narrowly defined peacekeeping efforts.43 Peacebuilding now overlaps
with state-building, an inherently political exercise that requires some
groups to be favoured over others and inevitably creates division and
perhaps even conflict.44 Brahimi’s role in Iraq in the first half of 2004
makes clear that the United Nations cannot duck the difficult choices in-
volved.
In looking to the future – even the immediate future of the United
Nations in Iraq – it is now more widely understood that the process of
state-building cannot be narrowly equated with the holding of elections.
Electoral assistance – like other specialized programmes run by the UN
Secretariat and UN agencies45 – has emerged as one of the key compe-
tencies of the United Nations, as the 200 or so related requests for UN
involvement received by the United Nations during the 1990s indicate.
At the same time, the reliance on representative democracy carries ter-
rible risks, most clearly illustrated in East Timor in 1999. And the Security
Council today understands that one election says little about the sustain-
ability of democracy. The United Nations’ expertise in this field has been
on display in the rapid and efficient work of Carina Perelli and her staff in
Iraq in 2004, although differences in judgement emerged between her
THE UN IN IRAQ, 2001–2005 369
frontation between two sets of security needs, between the North – with
its justified fear of terrorist assault on its prosperity and political stability
– and the South – with its justified fear of poverty, deprivation and dis-
ease.
Increasingly, sovereignty is coming to be seen not just as a source of
rights but also as a source of duties to provide security to individuals
and groups within society – a ‘‘responsibility to protect’’. This idea was
born from the Canadian-inspired International Commission on Interven-
tion and State Sovereignty (ICISS) in December 2001.53 However, taking
the responsibility to protect seriously would have consequences not only
for states but also for the United Nations, which has recently been side-
lined at the operational level by the existence of ‘‘coalitions of the will-
ing’’. The United Nations’ partial commitment to this responsibility in
the Outcome document of the September 2005 World Summit54 raised
the rhetorical stakes considerably; yet the test will come when troops
must be committed. Serious enforcement action now occurs only where
there is a militarily capable country or an adequate coalition of countries
willing to make available the necessary lift, troops, finance, political cap-
ital and military hardware.55 Countries working together within ‘‘Groups
of Friends’’, often spanning the North/South divide, can serve to build
support at the United Nations for intervention in specific instances.56
They can also help avoid the institutionalization of normative differences
such as those just discussed. Whether the emerging approach, which
leans more heavily on front-line action by regional organizations rather
than by the United Nations itself (for example, the Security Council’s re-
sponse to the crisis in Darfur in 2004), represents a flight from responsi-
bility rather than a sensible division of labour remains an open question.
United States may need the United Nations instrumentally.59 The Dayton
Accord (on Bosnia) of 1995, brokered by Washington, was a turning-
point in UN affairs, consecrating the United States as ‘‘the supreme
power’’, according to one Security Council ambassador in early 1996.60
The challenge for the Security Council in the future will remain to en-
gage the United States on the major security challenges without acquies-
cing in dangerous initiatives; to ‘‘have the courage to disagree with the
USA when it is wrong and the maturity to agree with it when it is
right’’.61 It must ‘‘keep intact its integrity, while improving its effective-
ness’’.62 The Security Council must assert its indispensability rather than
becoming just one coalition among many available to the United States.
Iraq suggests the continuing risk for the Council that Washington con-
ceives the United Nations’ role, at best, as one of long-term peacebuild-
ing following short and sharp US- or Western-led military interventions
(the latter whether mandated by the Council or not). The United Nations
would be confined to ‘‘picking up the pieces’’, as we saw in 2004 in Haiti
and Afghanistan, which would undermine the legitimacy – and conse-
quently the effectiveness – that the United Nations retains in the security
sphere.
Performance challenges
at the apex of a pyramid of regional, local, state and even civil society
regulatory mechanisms.64 This pyramidal structure might be governed
by a principle of subsidiarity, with successively higher layers taking up
the responsibility to protect as the layer below fails or is ill suited to the
task. At the same time, it will see the UN Security Council, at the apex
of the pyramid, projecting, monitoring and, where necessary, enforcing
global security regulation standards.
Where lower layers of the security apparatus fail or are unavailable
(for example in much of Asia), this approach would continue to dictate
UN operational leadership in the provision of humanitarian assistance
or even virtual trusteeship. (The international community’s combination
of active and passive approaches to northern Iraq since 1991 merits some
reflection from this perspective.) Elsewhere, the United Nations’ global
enforcement strategy may take on a more administrative and bureau-
cratic sheen, inspired by the inspections-plus-sanctions regime in Iraq in
the 1990s, although the difficulties confronted by that project must sound
a warning of the need for adequate resourcing and staffing. In yet other
circumstances, the United Nations’ role could simply be one of advice,
support and advocacy, working in partnership with governments to im-
prove the lives of their citizens. This is a role for which the UN Develop-
ment Programme, working in partnership with other organizations and
sometimes under the political leadership of the Secretary-General, seems
well suited.
The United Nations’ experience in post-war Iraq makes clear that ex-
pectations of what the United Nations can achieve there must be care-
fully managed and tailored.65 The operational environment in Iraq
stands as a catalogue of all the obstacles that a post-conflict society faces
in its transition to stable post-conflict governance: a brutalized and dis-
integrated population, society and economy, an easy supply of small arms,
large numbers of disgruntled soldiers struggling with demobilization and
reintegration, ethnic and religious divisions, corruption and terrorism.
Additionally, UN state builders face the challenge of grafting norms that
grew out of the European Enlightenment onto societies with entirely dif-
ferent historical legacies.66
Behind all of these challenges, the common theme confronting the United
Nations is to find ways – through structural and procedural reform and
through normative dialogue – to restore its tattered universality. The
sense of crisis produced in 2003 by the quarter-century drama of UN–
374 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
Notes
1. See Lawrence Freedman, ‘‘War in Iraq: Selling The Threat’’, Survival, Vol. 46, No. 2
(Summer 2004), pp. 7–50.
2. The phrase is taken from an influential Brookings Institution report, Meghan O’Sullivan,
Iraq: Time for a Modified Approach (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2001).
3. See Kenneth M. Pollack, ‘‘Spies, Lies, and Weapons: What Went Wrong’’, Atlantic
Monthly, January/February 2004.
4. See Bob Woodward, Bush at War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), pp. 83–84, and
Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), p. 25.
5. Comments of White House spokesperson Ari Fleischer, cited in Woodward, Plan of At-
tack, p. 232.
6. Freedman, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, p. 29.
7. See Hans Blix, Disarming Iraq: The Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction (London:
Bloomsbury, 2004), pp. 141–142.
8. See Philip H. Gordon and Jeremy Shapiro, Allies at War: America, Europe and the
Crisis over Iraq (New York: McGraw Hill, 2004); and Michael Clarke, ‘‘The Diplomacy
That Led to War in Iraq’’, in Paul Cornish, ed., The Conflict in Iraq, 2003 (London:
Palgrave/Macmillan, 2004).
9. See Statement by Secretary of State Powell to the Security Council, 5 February 2003,
hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030205-1.htmli.
10. Blix, Disarming Iraq, pp. 157, 167.
11. Mohammed ElBaradei, ‘‘The Status of Nuclear Inspections in Iraq: An Update’’,
Statement to the United Nations Security Council, 7 March 2003, available at hhttp://
www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2003/ebsp2003n006.shtmli.
12. See Susan Wright, ‘‘The Hijacking of UNSCOM’’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol.
55, No. 4 (July/August 1999); and see Blix, Disarming Iraq.
13. See John Kampfner, Blair’s Wars (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2003).
14. See Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 220.
15. UN Doc. A/57/PV.3, 12 September 2002.
16. Freedman, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, p. 39.
17. S/RES/1483 (2003), 22 May 2003, para. 8.
18. Ibid., para. 9.
19. See Report of the Secretary-General pursuant to paragraph 24 of Security Council Res-
olution 1483 (2003), UN Doc. S/2003/715, 17 July 2003.
20. See Dexter Filkins and Raymond Bonner, ‘‘Series of Blasts across Baghdad Kill at
Least 15’’, New York Times, 27 October 2003, Section 1, p. 1; and see Alex Berenson,
‘‘U.N. Chief Orders Further Reduction of Staff in Baghdad’’, New York Times, 26 Sep-
tember 2003, Section A, p. 8.
21. United Nations, Report of the Independent Panel on the Safety and Security of UN Per-
sonnel in Iraq, 20 October 2003.
22. See UN News Centre, ‘‘Annan Takes Strong Disciplinary Measures after Probe Reveals
Security Failures in Iraq’’, 29 March 2004. Annan refused to accept the resignation of
Louise Fréchette, who had chaired the Steering Group on Iraq that had recommended
the United Nations’ return to Iraq before the 19 August 2003 bombings.
23. See Edith M. Lederer, ‘‘U.N. Intends to Hire a Security Firm’’, Newsday, 4 March 2004.
376 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
The United Nations later backed away from this strategy: author’s interview with senior
UN security officials, July 2005.
24. See ‘‘Text of Letters from the Prime Minister of the Interim Government of Iraq Dr.
Ayad Allawi and United States Secretary of State Colin L. Powell to the President of
the Council’’, Annex to S/RES/1546 (2004), at p. 11.
25. See, especially, Report on the Fall of Srebrenica, UN Doc. A/54/549, 15 November 1999;
Report of the Independent Inquiry into the Actions of the United Nations during the 1994
Genocide in Rwanda, UN Doc. S/1999/1257, 15 December 1999; and the Brahimi Re-
port, Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations, UN Doc. A/55/305–
S/2000/809, 21 August 2000, which argued for the primacy of ‘‘impartiality’’ over
‘‘neutrality’’ in peace operations.
26. Just how high became clear in early May 2004, when al-Qaeda offered 10 kg of gold as a
reward to anyone who murdered Annan or his senior Iraq negotiator Lakhdar Brahimi.
27. See, generally, Edward C. Luck, ‘‘Tackling Terrorism’’, in David M. Malone, ed., The
UN Security Council from the Cold War to the 21 st Century (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rien-
ner, 2004), p. 85; and Andrés Franco, ‘‘Armed Nonstate Actors’’ in ibid., p. 117.
28. S/RES/1540 (2004), 28 April 2004.
29. See International Peace Academy (IPA), ‘‘The Future of UN State-Building: Strategic
and Operational Challenges and the Legacy of Iraq’’, New York, December 2003.
30. Ibid., p. 6.
31. See Antonio Donini, Norah Niland and Karin Wermester, eds, Nation-Building Unrav-
eled? Aid, Peace and Justice in Afghanistan (Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press, 2004).
32. See Jim Wurst, ‘‘U.N. Iraq Envoy Says Security, Electoral Assistance Are Priority’’,
U.N. Wire, 23 July 2004.
33. See David M. Malone, ‘‘UN Anger over Iraq: Nobody Said It Would Be Safe’’, Interna-
tional Herald Tribune, 30 September 2004.
34. See Peter W. Galbraith, ‘‘How to Get out of Iraq’’, New York Review of Books, Vol. 51,
No. 8 (13 May 2004), and ‘‘Iraq: The Bungled Transition’’, New York Review of Books,
Vol. 51, No. 14 (23 September 2004); Seymour M. Hersh, ‘‘Chain of Command’’, New
Yorker, 17 May 2004. The abandonment of reconstruction objectives was made obvious
to all when the Bush administration sought congressional authorization to shift funding
from reconstruction to security; see Richard W. Stevenson, ‘‘Seeing Threat to Iraq Elec-
tions, U.S. Seeks to Shift Rebuilding Funds to Security’’, New York Times, 14 Septem-
ber 2004, Section A, p. 12.
35. S/RES/1511 (2003), 16 October 2003.
36. UN News Centre, ‘‘Annan Asks Security Council for Greater Clarity on UN Role in
Iraq’’, 16 December 2003.
37. See letter dated 18 March 2004 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President
of the Security Council, UN Doc. S/2004/225, 19 March 2004. President Bush had earlier
met with Brahimi in Washington to ask him to undertake this delicate mission.
38. Edward Joseph, ‘‘A Balancing Act for the UN’s Brahimi’’, International Herald Trib-
une, 15 May 2004.
39. Mats Berdal, ‘‘The UN after Iraq’’, Survival, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Autumn 2004), p. 88.
40. See Peter W. Galbraith, ‘‘Iraq: The Bungled Transition’’, New York Review of Books,
23 September 2004.
41. See S/RES/1546 (2004).
42. For the only clear-cut case in which the Security Council authorized the use of force to
restore democracy, see David Malone, ‘‘Haiti and the International Community: A Case
Study’’, Survival, Vol. 39, No. 2 (Summer 1997), pp. 126–146. See, generally, Gregory
H. Fox, ‘‘Democratization’’, in Malone, The UN Security Council, p. 69.
THE UN IN IRAQ, 2001–2005 377
43. See Elizabeth M. Cousens, Chetan Kumar and Karin Wermester, Peacebuilding as Pol-
itics: Cultivating Peace in Fragile Societies (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001). See also
Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Elizabeth M. Cousens, eds, Ending Civil
Wars: The Success and Failure of Negotiated Settlements in Civil War (Boulder, CO:
Lynne Rienner, 2002); and Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson and Pamela R.
Aall, eds, Herding Cats: Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World (Washington, DC:
United States Institute of Peace, 1999).
44. See Stephen Stedman, ‘‘Introduction’’, in Stephen Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Eliz-
abeth Cousens, eds, Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements (Boul-
der, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002).
45. Mats Berdal makes the point that Iraq has highlighted the comparative efficiency of the
World Food Programme, UNICEF, UNDP and other UN specialized agencies and pro-
grammes: Berdal, ‘‘The UN after Iraq’’, pp. 86–87.
46. See UN Doc. S/2004/140, 23 February 2004.
47. Marina Ottaway, ‘‘Iraq: Without Consensus, Democracy Is Not the Answer’’, Policy
Brief 36, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2005. On the grim real-
ities of the election, see also Mark Danner, ‘‘Iraq: The Real Election’’, New York Re-
view of Books, Vol. 52, No. 7 (28 April 2005), pp. 41–44.
48. IPA, ‘‘The Future of UN State-Building’’, p. 8.
49. See Simon Chesterman, You, The People: The United Nations, Transitional Administra-
tion, and State-Building (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004); and also Simon Ches-
terman, ‘‘Bush, the United Nations and Nation-building’’, Survival, Vol. 46, No. 1
(Spring 2004), pp. 101–116.
50. See Simon Chesterman, ‘‘Virtual Trusteeship’’, in Malone, The UN Security Council,
p. 219.
51. See IPA, ‘‘The Future of UN State-Building’’.
52. See, for example, Chandra Lekha Sriram and Karin Wermester, From Promise to Prac-
tice: Strengthening UN Capacities for the Prevention of Violent Conflict, Final Report
(New York: International Peace Academy, May 2003).
53. See hhttp://www.iciss.gc.ca/menu-e.aspi.
54. United Nations General Assembly, 2005 World Summit Outcome, UN Doc. A/60/L.1,
15 September 2005.
55. Except in Africa, enforcement actions are increasingly advocated, then carried out, by
the global North, whereas traditional peacekeeping operations are executed mostly by
the global South. The industrialized countries (especially those in NATO) often provide
troops that operate under national, NATO or European Union command. The United
States in effect operates as a free agent.
56. One of the key means of securing this cooperative approach to security governance may
be reform of the working procedures – if not the structure – of the Security Council. See
Teresa Whitfield, ‘‘Groups of Friends’’, in Malone, The UN Security Council, p. 311.
57. Michael J. Glennon, ‘‘Why the Security Council Failed’’, Foreign Affairs, May/June
2003.
58. This and many related points are made in a powerful piece by Thomas Franck, ‘‘What
Happens Now? The UN after Iraq’’, American Journal of International Law, Vol. 97
(2003), p. 607.
59. See UN Doc. A/59/PV.4, 21 September 2004.
60. Interview with Egypt’s then-ambassador to the United Nations, Nabil Elarabi, January
1996.
61. Interview with Mexico’s then-ambassador to the United Nations, Adolfo Aguilar
Zı́nser, 26 January 2003.
378 DAVID M. MALONE AND JAMES COCKAYNE
The Iraqi dictator must not be permitted to threaten America and the world with
horrible poisons and diseases and gases and atomic weapons.
(George W. Bush, 7 October 2002)
I think unless the United Nations shows some backbone and courage, it could
render the Security Council irrelevant.
(George W. Bush, 17 February 2003)
peace in which they can initiate war without being held accountable, or,
at best, being held accountable only by the democratic process of defeat
in the next election. The implication is that an illegal war of aggression,
although it may be neither wise nor necessary, is a prerogative of power.
The two main justifications offered by the Bush administration for the
war against Iraq prior to its inception have by now been completely dis-
credited. First, administration spokespersons repeatedly pointed to an
imminent threat that Iraq would use weapons of mass destruction against
the United States or its allies, or would transfer these weapons to ter-
rorist organizations. UN weapons inspectors in Iraq prior to the war re-
ported that they were not finding weapons of mass destruction and
needed more time to complete their inspections. The Bush administra-
tion, however, continued to assert that Iraq had such weapons, despite a
lack of credible corroboration, and finally warned the UN inspectors to
leave Iraq before the United States initiated what it called a ‘‘preemp-
tive’’ war. Secretary of State Colin Powell, in his presentation to the
United Nations Security Council, asserted without question that the
United States had knowledge of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and
proceeded to produce intelligence photographs of the sites where they
were being manufactured and stored.2 His assertions turned out to be
false.
In the aftermath of the war, despite extensive efforts by UN inspectors
and US military personnel, no weapons of mass destruction were located
in Iraq. This wholly discredited the numerous pronouncements by mem-
bers of the Bush administration that they not only knew there were such
weapons but even knew where they were located within Iraq.
The second justification for the war made by the Bush administration
prior to initiating the war was that there was a link between Iraq and
the al-Qaeda terrorist organization. The evidence establishing this link
has also proven to be false or, at best, extremely tenuous. This led the
United States to come up with new post hoc justifications for the war,
such as the assertion that Saddam Hussein was a bad man and evil dicta-
tor, even though the United States supported him despite his poor human
rights record when it believed that it served its interests to do so. Al-
though these post hoc justifications may be true, they do not make an ef-
fective case for the legality, or even the legitimacy, of an aggressive war
initiated without UN authorization.
If allowed to stand unchallenged, the US initiation of war in Iraq and
the rationale that permitted it could set an extremely dangerous prece-
dent. Such actions could also undermine the legal and normative system
to prevent wars of aggression, centred in the United Nations and enunci-
ated in the Nuremberg Principles, which were the basis for the trials of
Axis leaders in the aftermath of World War II. The Nuremberg Prin-
THE WAR IN IRAQ AS ILLEGAL AND ILLEGITIMATE 383
ciples list ‘‘crimes against peace’’ as first among the crimes punishable
under international law and define crimes against peace as: ‘‘(i) Planning,
preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in viola-
tion of international treaties, agreements or assurances; (ii) Participation
of a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the
acts mentioned under (i).’’3
The words of the US chief prosecutor at the Nuremberg Trials, Justice
Robert Jackson, are relevant. Jackson was adamant that the true test of
what was done at Nuremberg would be the extent to which the Allied
victors, including the United States, applied these principles to them-
selves in future years. In his opening statement to the court, Jackson
placed the issue of ‘‘victor’s justice’’ in context: ‘‘We must never forget
that the record on which we judge these defendants is the record on
which history will judge us tomorrow. To pass these defendants a poi-
soned chalice is to put it to our lips as well. We must summon such de-
tachment and intellectual integrity to our task that this Trial will commend
itself to posterity as fulfilling humanity’s aspirations to do justice.’’4
For Jackson, such ‘‘aspirations to do justice’’ included applying the law
equally and fairly to all. ‘‘If certain acts in violation of treaties are
crimes,’’ he stated, ‘‘they are crimes whether the United States does
them or whether Germany does them, and we are not prepared to lay
down a rule of criminal conduct against others which we would not be
willing to have invoked against us.’’5
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or col-
lective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Na-
tions, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain inter-
national peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this
right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and
shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council
under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in
order to maintain or restore international peace and security.’’8
384 DAVID KRIEGER
war with Iraq, abandoned its quest for UN authorization and proceeded
to attack and invade Iraq. The Bush administration sought to justify its
illegal actions on the basis of Security Council Resolution 678, a 1990 res-
olution that authorized ‘‘all necessary means’’ to uphold previous resolu-
tions related to Iraq’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait and to restore
peace and security in the area.10 The resolution authorized the use of
force unless Iraq fully complied with previous Council resolutions by 15
January 1991. This resolution was used as the legal justification for the
attack against Iraq on that date by the US-led coalition and also by the
Bush II administration for its attack in March 2003. Although the justifi-
cation is relevant, at least legally, to the 1991 Gulf war, it is basically used
as sophistry in relation to the 2003 attack.
Following the first Gulf war, Iraq accepted a ceasefire contained in Se-
curity Council Resolution 687.11 This resolution imposed certain condi-
tions on Iraq, including WMD disarmament obligations. In justifying the
2003 war in Iraq, Bush administration officials continued to rely upon
the Security Council resolutions preceding and immediately following
the 1991 Gulf war. US State Department Legal Advisers, for example,
argued, ‘‘As a legal matter, a material breach of the conditions that had
been essential to the establishment of the cease-fire left the responsibility
to member states to enforce those conditions, operating consistently with
Resolution 678 to use all necessary means to restore international peace
and security in the area.’’12
These officials further argued that the provision in Resolution 1441 in-
dicating that Iraq was in ‘‘material breach of its obligations’’ to cooperate
with UN inspectors on WMD inspections under previous resolutions, in-
cluding Resolutions 678 and 687, allowed the United States legally to ini-
tiate its attack on Iraq.13 In fact, however, Resolution 1441 offered Iraq
‘‘a final opportunity to comply with disarmament obligations’’,14 and Iraq
was doing so. Iraq was cooperating with UN inspectors on these issues,
and the arguments to the contrary, by Colin Powell and others in the
Bush administration, have since been exposed as misrepresentations.15
Most important, though, Security Council Resolution 1441 stated that
the Security Council would remain seized of the matter, thus indicating
that, without further Council authorization, there was no legal justifica-
tion for the United States and its allies to proceed to war against Iraq.16
The US-led attack against Iraq constitutes a clear undermining of es-
tablished Security Council authority in the realm of war and peace. The
attack and initiation of the Iraq war would later be described by Presi-
dent Bush in terms of the United States not needing a ‘‘permission slip’’,
presumably from the United Nations, when US security interests were
threatened.17 As was subsequently revealed, however, US security inter-
ests were not threatened, as had been alleged by the Bush administra-
386 DAVID KRIEGER
tion, and the war therefore had no legal basis. It was considered by the
opposition party in the United States to be at best a ‘‘war of choice’’.
More realistically, it was understood by large majorities of the popula-
tions of nearly all countries in the world to be an aggressive and illegal
war of the type for which Axis leaders were held to account by the Allied
powers after World War II. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said un-
equivocally that the war was illegal. Referring to the war, he stated, ‘‘I
have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN charter. From our
point of view and from the charter point of view it was illegal.’’18
The Security Council could have chosen to act under Article 39 of the
UN Charter to authorize the use of force against Iraq if it determined
that there had been a breach of the peace or an act of aggression. Article
39 states, ‘‘The Security Council shall determine the existence of any
threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall
make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accor-
dance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace
and security.’’19 Article 41 refers to actions the Security Council can take
that do not involve the use of force. Article 42 refers to acts of force the
Security Council can take if it finds the measures under Article 41 to be
inadequate. These include ‘‘such action by air, sea, or land forces as may
be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security’’.20
No such actions were authorized by the Security Council in relation to
the Iraq war initiated by President Bush and other US and coalition
leaders in March 2003.
Any government learning that a 9/11, perhaps with weapons of mass destruction,
is about to happen cannot sit and wait, but will seek to prevent it. However, such
preventive action, if undertaken without the authorization of the Security Council,
would have to rely critically upon solid intelligence if it were to be internationally
accepted. The case of Iraq cannot be said to have strengthened faith in national
intelligence as a basis for preemptive military action without Security Council au-
thorization. Saddam Hussein did not have any weapons of mass destruction in
March 2003, and the evidence invoked of the existence of such weapons had be-
gun to fall apart even before the invasion started.22
Based on this analysis, Blix concluded: ‘‘Saddam Hussein was not a valid
object for counterproliferation. He was not an imminent or even a re-
mote threat to the United States or to Iraq’s neighbors.’’23
It should be understood that, even if there had been weapons of mass
destruction in Iraq, this alone would not have been a sufficient justifica-
tion for pre-emptive war. The mere presence of weapons of mass destruc-
tion, absent evidence of imminent intent to use them, would be insufficient
to justify a pre-emptive war, let alone a preventive war. If the mere pres-
ence of weapons of mass destruction were sufficient, it would mean that
any country possessing weapons of mass destruction would be a legitimate
target of preventive attack by a potential enemy of that country. Such
logic would push all states in the direction of preventive warfare and
would substantially increase both the likelihood and the danger of such
wars. It would allow for attacks against Israel on the basis of its secret
but widely recognized nuclear weapons programme, for attacks by either
India or Pakistan against the other, and for attacks by any of the nuclear
weapons states against one another. This is, in part, why the International
Court of Justice, in its 1996 Advisory Opinion on the legality of the
threat or use of nuclear weapons, stated: ‘‘There exists an obligation to
pursue in good faith and bring to a conclusion negotiations leading to nu-
clear disarmament in all its aspects under strict and effective international
control.’’24
Following further this line of enquiry, a distinction needs to be drawn
between a state possessing weapons of mass destruction and non-state
extremist groups possessing the same weapons. In the former case, a
country has a fixed location and is therefore far more likely to be de-
terred by the threat of retaliation from using such weapons. In contrast,
the same weapons in the hands of extremists who are not easily locatable
and who may be suicidal as well, and therefore are not subject to being
deterred by threats of retaliation, present a far more dangerous threat.
388 DAVID KRIEGER
In the case both of states of concern – such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea
– and of extremist groups, however, the best remedy is surely policies to
prevent nuclear proliferation and achieve nuclear disarmament rather
than a pre-emptive war. An aggressive war could stand only as a final
barrier and one that is unacceptable and illegal unless under the mandate
of the international community through authorization by the United Na-
tions Security Council.
Given the after-the-fact findings in Iraq that there were neither weap-
ons of mass destruction nor links to extremist organizations, there was no
reasonable justification, either in legality or in legitimacy, for the US-led
war against that country. US leaders continue to make the claim that pre-
vious Security Council resolutions provide the necessary justification, but
this is a poor argument that is not borne out by scrutiny of the earlier res-
olutions and, in any event, is overridden by the fact that the Security
Council had decided in Resolution 1441 to remain seized of the matter.
Defenders of the Iraq war claim that the removal of Saddam Hussein by
the rapidly diminishing ‘‘coalition of the willing’’ will make it possible for
democracy eventually to take root in the country, and that a new Iraq
will serve as a model to other countries in the region, transforming a
troublesome but oil-rich part of the world into one that is stable, peaceful
and democratic. This is an unlikely scenario, given the realities that have
ensued as a result of the war.
Although many Iraqi citizens are pleased that Saddam Hussein was
dislodged from power, the result of the Iraq war has been the death of
some 100,000 innocent civilians, severe injury to tens of thousands more,
and enormous destruction of the infrastructure of the country.25 Iraqi so-
ciety has been devastated by warfare and its citizens subjected to death,
injury, torture and humiliating abuses such as were revealed at Abu
Ghraib prison. The price for regime change has been very high in
terms of death and destruction. Iraq will now have to struggle with re-
establishing itself as a sovereign state, finding its own means of gover-
nance in a post-Saddam and post-US occupation country. As part of this
struggle, it will have to come to terms with its relationship to the United
States, which undoubtedly seeks to ensure special privileges with Iraq
with regard to Iraqi oil supplies and the continued presence of US troops
in the region, particularly on newly established US military bases in Iraq
itself. Of course, the United States has also paid a price for the war in
terms of its financial costs, currently estimated at over US$200 billion,
the death and injury of its soldiers, the spreading thin of its armed forces
THE WAR IN IRAQ AS ILLEGAL AND ILLEGITIMATE 389
bly and, through it, to the people of the world. If the facts bear out the
circumvention of the UN Charter by the United States in direct defiance
of the Security Council, at a minimum the United States should be cen-
sured for its actions. Further recommendations by the General Assembly
could include a call for reparations to the Iraqi people, prohibitions on
the United States profiting from its aggression, the disgorgement of prof-
its already obtained, and the trial and punishment of responsible US and
coalition leaders for their actions.
An early act of the Bush administration was to ‘‘unsign’’ the treaty es-
tablishing an International Criminal Court (ICC).28 Under the Bush ad-
ministration, the United States has been hostile to the ICC, arguing that
it did not want to subject US military personnel to the dictates of this in-
ternational court. In light of the US circumvention of international law in
its initiation of an aggressive war against Iraq, it becomes clearer that US
leaders were seeking to give themselves greater degrees of freedom to
commit serious violations of international criminal law without being sub-
jected to the jurisdiction of the court.
No country, even the most powerful, should be immune from interna-
tional law. The United Nations owes it to itself and to the principles for
which the organization stands not to allow the law to be violated without,
at a minimum, drawing public attention to the violations. Although a re-
port by the United Nations on illegal actions by a member state might
upset the government of that state, it would also help to draw the atten-
tion of the people of that country to illegal acts being committed in their
name. This would bear some resemblance at the international level to the
truth aspect of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission that was suc-
cessfully used in South Africa after apartheid ended and Nelson Mandela
was released from prison to become president of that country.29 It would
be useful for a UN committee examining the violations of international
law in the US-led war against Iraq also to look carefully into the more
than a decade of sanctions imposed upon Iraq and the results of those
sanctions in terms of human life and suffering of innocent parties.
At the heart of world conditions that provided the ostensible reason that
the United States went into Iraq are the extreme threats posed by weap-
ons of mass destruction. Many countries are now concerned about the in-
cendiary mix that lies at the intersection of weapons of mass destruction
and terrorism. The need is greater today than ever before to bring weap-
ons of mass destruction under effective international control, and many
countries have voiced their concern that more must be done to keep
THE WAR IN IRAQ AS ILLEGAL AND ILLEGITIMATE 391
Notes
22. Hans Blix, ‘‘The Importance of Inspections’’, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, Proliferation Brief, Vol. 7, No. 11 (2004), hhttp://www.carnegieendowment.org/
publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1591i.
23. Ibid.
24. ‘‘Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on the Legality of the Threat
or Use of Nuclear Weapons’’, General Assembly Doc. A/51/218, 15 October 1996, p. 37.
25. Elisabeth Rosenthal, ‘‘Study Puts Civilian Toll in Iraq at Over 100,000’’, International
Herald Tribune, 30 October 2004.
26. United Nations Charter.
27. See, for example, ‘‘World Tribunal on Iraq – Platform Text’’, Istanbul, 29 October 2003,
hhttp://www.brusselstribunal.org/wti_platform_text.htmi.
28. The Treaty Establishing an International Criminal Court entered into force on 1 July
2002. The treaty was signed by President Clinton on 31 December 2000. President
Bush took the unprecedented step of ‘‘unsigning’’ the treaty in May 2002.
29. See Desmond Tutu, No Future without Forgiveness (New York: Doubleday, 1999).
30. On the Proliferation Security Initiative, see John R. Bolton, ‘‘The Proliferation Security
Initiative: A Vision Becomes a Reality’’, US Department of State, 31 May 2004, hhttp://
www.state.gov/t/us/rm/33046.htmi. For a more critical perspective, see Colin Robinson,
‘‘The Proliferation Security Initiative: Naval Interception Bush-Style’’, Center for
Defense Information, 25 August 2003, hhttp://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.
cfm?documentID=1667i.
31. See Dana Milbank and Peter Slevin, ‘‘Bush Details Plans to Curb Nuclear Arms’’,
Washington Post, 12 February 2004.
32. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, entered into force 5 March 1970,
hhttp://www.armscontrol.org/documents/npt.aspi. Article IV(1) of the Treaty states:
‘‘Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the
Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of
this Treaty.’’ This clause may be viewed as an obstacle to achieving the non-
proliferation and nuclear disarmament goals of the Treaty.
33. Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons states: ‘‘Each of
the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective
measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear
disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and
effective international control.’’ This critical element of the nuclear non-proliferation/
disarmament bargain has been largely ignored by the nuclear weapons states.
34. See Justine Wang, ‘‘A Symposium on Genocide and Crimes against Humanity: The
Challenge of Prevention and Enforcement’’, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 8 January
2004, hhttp://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/01/08_wang_symposium.htmi.
24
Legitimacy as an assessment
of existing legal standards:
The case of the 2003 Iraq war
Charlotte Ku
work. But has the United States embarked on a course of no return with
regard to the UN security system following the 2003 Iraq war? Not so far,
and one way to measure how far the United States has strayed from the
existing system may be to assess the legitimacy of its actions.
On the eve of the US-led war in Iraq, Anne-Marie Slaughter published
a controversial opinion piece in the New York Times in which she noted:
‘‘By giving up on the Security Council, the Bush administration has
started on a course that could be called ‘illegal but legitimate,’ a course
that could end up, paradoxically, winning United Nations approval for a
military campaign in Iraq – though only after an invasion.’’ She con-
cluded the piece on a tentative note: ‘‘Overall, everyone involved is still
playing by the rules. But depending on what we find in Iraq, the rules
may have to evolve, so that which is legitimate is also legal.’’2 Legitimacy
in the case of Iraq depended heavily on what was found.
One year later, she wrote:
A year ago, when the U.S. and Britain decided to send troops to Iraq without a
second UN resolution, I argued that their action was illegal under international
law but potentially legitimate in the eyes of the international community. I set
forth three criteria for determining the ultimate legitimacy of the action: 1)
whether the coalition forces did in fact find weapons of mass destruction; 2)
whether coalition forces were welcomed by the Iraqi people; and 3) whether the
U.S. and Britain turned back to the UN as quickly as possible after the fighting
was done. A year later, I conclude that the invasion was both illegal and illegiti-
mate. The coalition’s decision to use force without a second Security Council res-
olution cannot stand as a precedent for future action, but rather as a mistake that
should lead us back to genuine multilateralism.3
a case can be made for the legitimacy of an otherwise illegal action, this
may indicate that the rule needs to be changed. Considerations of legiti-
macy therefore are crucial to the functioning of the law even when legal-
ity and legitimacy diverge.
Nevertheless, the war in Iraq triggered much concern that basing an
action on legitimacy, even though it was illegal, would lead to self-serving
unilateral judgements whenever multilateral authorization was not avail-
able. Yet, can a nation realistically be expected to wait for a collective
decision if it feels under threat? Slaughter addressed this problem in her
March 2003 New York Times article: ‘‘The United Nations imposes con-
straints on both the global decision-making process and the outcomes of
the process, constraints that all countries recognize to be in their long-
term interest and the interest of the world. But it cannot be a straitjacket,
preventing nations from defending themselves or pursuing what they per-
ceive to be their vital national security interests.’’4 The larger question is
whether alternatives existed that might have been more acceptable to the
collective body. The failure to explore such alternatives fully (in the opin-
ion of most voices outside the United States) is perhaps the key problem
in arguing the legitimacy of the war. A further problem is the ripple ef-
fect that the US action might have on the entire UN security system by
tempting others to follow the US example and act without specific UN
authorization.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan addressed this concern in his charge
to the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change in 2003:
The past year has shaken the foundations of collective security and undermined
confidence in the possibility of collective responses to our common problems and
challenges. It has also brought to the fore deep divergences of opinion on the
range and nature of the challenges we face, and are likely to face in the future.
(a) Examine today’s global threats and provide an analysis of future challenges to
international peace and security. Whilst there may continue to exist a diversity of
perception on the relative importance of the various threats facing particular
Member States on an individual basis, it is important to find an appropriate bal-
ance at a global level. It is also important to understand the connections between
different threats.5
Whether we individually conclude that the 2003 war in Iraq was legal or
illegal, the question is whether the UN Security Council system can re-
spond effectively and retain its ‘‘unique standard of international legal le-
gitimacy’’.6
400 CHARLOTTE KU
there has been a perceptible undercurrent of unease since the end of the Cold
War that the will of the UNSC has been bent too easily and too often to the
wishes of the sole superpower. . . . Developing countries fear that in some sections
of the west today, the view has gained ground that anyone but the legitimate au-
thorities can use force. If this is then used as an alibi to launch UN-authorized
humanitarian interventions against the wishes of the legitimate governments of
member states, the international organization would quickly be viewed more as
a threat to the security of many countries than as a source of protection against
major-power predators.9
The conduct of the Iraqi regime is a threat to the authority of the United Nations,
and a threat to peace. Iraq has answered a decade of U.N. demands with a decade
of defiance. All the world now faces a test, and the United Nations a difficult and
defining moment. Are Security Council resolutions to be honored and enforced,
or cast aside without consequence? Will the United Nations serve the purpose of
its founding, or will it be irrelevant?10
Authority to use force against Iraq exists from the combined effect of resolutions
678, 687 and 1441. All of these resolutions were adopted under Chapter VII of
the UN Charter which allows the use of force for the express purpose of restoring
international peace and security.11
The founding legal framework for action against Iraq remains intact and available
to those who are willing to use it. Resolution 687 is the mother of all resolutions,
setting out the requirements for post-Gulf-war Iraq. This 1991 resolution re-
quires, in perpetuity, that Iraq give up its weapons of mass destruction and permit
LEGITIMACY AS AN ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL STANDARDS 403
With every step the Iraq regime takes toward gaining and deploying the most ter-
rible weapons, our own options to confront that regime will narrow. And if an
emboldened regime were to supply these weapons to terrorist allies, then the at-
tacks of September the 11th would be a prelude to far greater horrors.21
Establishing legitimacy
In 2001, the International Commission on Intervention and State Sover-
eignty initiated by the Canadian government noted that, although linked,
legality and legitimacy were not synonymous and that legitimacy takes on
increased significance when the law is unsettled.25 But what happens if
the chief source of legitimacy happens to be the same body that confers
international legality on an action but finds that it can provide neither le-
gality nor legitimacy? This was the case with the 2003 Iraq war, since the
UN Security Council declined explicitly to authorize the war in Iraq,
making the war illegal in the eyes of many. And are we on the verge of
facing more such cases where the United Nations is unwilling to autho-
rize action but some state or group of states nevertheless feels compelled
to act? The 2003 Iraq war was not the first time this question arose.
Under very different conditions, but addressing the United Nations’
LEGITIMACY AS AN ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL STANDARDS 405
failure to act in Rwanda in the wake of the 1999 Operation Allied Force
in Kosovo, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked:
To those for whom the greatest threat to the future of international order is the
use of force in the absence of a Security Council mandate, one might say: leave
Kosovo aside for a moment, and think about Rwanda. Imagine for one moment
that, in those dark days and hours leading up to the genocide, there had been a
coalition of states ready and willing to act in defence of the Tutsi population, but
the council had refused or delayed giving the green light. Should such a coalition
then have stood idly by while the horror unfolded?
To those for whom the Kosovo action heralded a new era when states and
groups of states can take military action outside the established mechanisms for
enforcing international law, one might equally ask: Is there not a danger of such
interventions undermining the imperfect, yet resilient security system created
after the second world war, and of setting dangerous precedents for future inter-
ventions without a clear criterion to decide who might invoke these precedents
and in what circumstances?26
The Commission further noted that: ‘‘In the face of legal ambiguity, lists
of possible thresholds and criteria assume increasing importance. The es-
tablishment of a set of criteria has been offered as one way to mitigate
the potential for abuse. While not legally binding, they could neverthe-
less provide a benchmark against which the legitimacy of an intervention
could be measured.’’30
These criteria produce useful general standards by which to judge any
claim to legitimate action. They seek to maintain order through rules,
procedures and criteria even when such existing standards somehow
proved inadequate. They accept the concept of necessity, although only
when all alternatives have been exhausted.31 They apply the just war
standard of acting only where there is a likelihood of success in meeting
the objectives stated. And, finally, they maintain a focus on supporting
durable solutions and institutional structures over pursuing specific na-
tional objectives and interests. These criteria well state the tests that can
be applied to actions taken outside of the generally accepted frameworks
for authorizing action and may provide the conditions necessary to con-
sider legitimate an action that otherwise fails to meet existing legal stan-
dards. Given these conditions, it would appear that legitimacy can often
be determined only after the action has taken place if the conditions that
triggered action are not observable prior to acting. This is, of course,
where persuasive and credible intelligence becomes important.
Yet, even though no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq,
the threat of such weapons finding their way into terrorist networks re-
mains. Are there any standards of legitimacy that might aid in addressing
such threats if existing rules and institutions appear unable to respond?
One such effort was advanced by Lee Feinstein and Anne-Marie Slaugh-
ter in the idea of a ‘‘duty to prevent’’. This would apply under the follow-
ing conditions:
First, [the duty to prevent] seeks to control not only the proliferation of WMD
but also the people who possess them. Second, it emphasizes prevention, calling
on the international community to act early in order to be effective and develop a
LEGITIMACY AS AN ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL STANDARDS 407
Again, if we put the above criteria to the test, we find that they empha-
size alternatives to the use of force and address the problem of prolifera-
tion in ways that try to bring the action back into a multilateral setting.
Should the international community fail to act through the United Na-
tions or some other widely recognized body, capable states, alone or with
allies, may be compelled to act to prevent harm from coming to their citi-
zens and others for whom they are responsible. As suggested by the re-
sponsibility to protect, the duty to prevent also begins from the premise
that individual states are responsible for the security and well-being of
their populations. However, in the case of the responsibility to protect,
states from the outside may have to act against a state that is abusing its
population, whereas, in the duty to prevent, a state may have to act to
protect its population from a potential outside threat.
The duty to prevent is also a reaction to possible threats posed by
closed societies developing weapons of mass destruction and lacking any
internal political checks on the actions of a despotic regime. The duty to
prevent seeks to legitimate early action to prevent mass murder through
the use of WMD. It attempts to establish criteria in order to determine
the existence of a threat so that the difficulty of mounting evidence to
support a response prior to an attack is overcome. If a threat is imminent,
international law allows pre-emptive action. However, in a world of
weapons of mass destruction and technology, the time available for re-
sponse once a threat materializes may be very short, rendering the classic
approach to pre-emptive action insufficient. As described in the National
Security Strategy of the United States of America in September 2002: ‘‘We
must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objec-
tives of today’s adversaries. Rogue states and terrorists do not seek to at-
tack us using conventional means. They know such attacks would fail. In-
stead, they rely on acts of terror and, potentially, the use of weapons of
mass destruction – weapons that can be easily concealed, delivered cov-
ertly, and used without warning.’’33
At the same time, as we have seen from the current war in Iraq, if war
is waged on such a pre-emptive basis, then evidence to justify such a war
is essential to maintain support for such war efforts on three levels: by
citizens in states that wage the war, by the population in the affected
state, and by the international community. Whatever the merits of re-
moving Saddam Hussein from power, when the United States waged
war in March 2003 on the basis of Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass
destruction, prior to the completion of the UN weapons inspectors’ mis-
408 CHARLOTTE KU
Conclusion
Actions inconsistent with the procedures prescribed for them may erode the au-
thority of the law and increase the probability of abuse. Hence the law’s ceaseless
quest for organization and institutionalization and its discomfort with and inher-
ent resistance to legally unauthorized actions, no matter how urgent the circum-
stances or morally imperative the impulse.35
LEGITIMACY AS AN ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL STANDARDS 409
Notes
1. See Andreas Paulus, ‘‘The War against Iraq and the Future of International Law: He-
gemony or Pluralism?’’, Michigan Journal of International Law, Vol. 25 (Spring 2004),
pp. 732–733.
2. Anne-Marie Slaughter, ‘‘Good Reasons for Going around the U.N.’’, New York Times,
18 March 2003.
3. Anne-Marie Slaughter, ‘‘Reflecting on the War in Iraq One Year Later’’, ASIL News-
letter, March/April 2004, p. 2.
4. Slaughter, ‘‘Good Reasons for Going around the U.N.’’.
5. ‘‘Secretary-General Names High-Level Panel to Study Global Security Threats, and
Recommend Necessary Changes’’, UN Press Release SG/A/857, 11 April 2003.
6. ‘‘Jim Carter Becomes ASIL’s 41st President’’, ASIL Newsletter, May/July 2004, p. 10.
7. Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations, UN Doc. A/55/305–S/2000/809,
21 August 2000, para. 53, p. 10.
8. Anne-Marie Slaughter, ‘‘The Will That Makes It Work’’, Washington Post, 2 March
2003, p. B3.
LEGITIMACY AS AN ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL STANDARDS 411
33. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: The
White House, September 2002), p. 15, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdfi.
34. ‘‘Secretary-General Names High-Level Panel to Study Global Security Threats, and
Recommend Necessary Changes’’, 11 April 2003.
35. W. Michael Reisman, ‘‘Unilateral Action and the Transformations of the World Consti-
tutive Process: The Special Problem of Humanitarian Intervention’’, European Journal
of International Law, Vol. 11 (March 2000), p. 6.
36. Ibid.
25
The multinational action in
Iraq and international law
Ruth Wedgwood
413
414 RUTH WEDGWOOD
ticular secretary-general’’.1 One may note the sober voice of Sir Adam
Roberts:
How much weight attaches to the past decisions of the Security Council in autho-
rising force? If the Council authorises certain member states to undertake a task,
but is then unable to agree on follow-up action, does the original authorisation
still stand? . . . The simple guiding principle has to be that a resolution, once
passed remains in effect. In the absence of a new resolution repudiating earlier
positions (which will always be hard to achieve, granted the existence of a veto)
a presumption of continuity is plausible.2
agents may (or may not) have met in Prague with a leader of the 9/11 at-
tacks. Regardless of the interpretation of intelligence sources on these
matters, the deliberate evasion of inspection requirements by an irre-
sponsible regime could not be ignored or indulged, even in 2003.
This helps to explain the willingness of the United States and its allies
to flow significant numbers of troops into the Gulf region in mid-2002,
in order to persuade Iraq that it needed to readmit the UN weapons in-
spectors and comply with the verification requirements of Resolution
687. Under Resolution 1441, Iraq was given what the Security Council
deemed a ‘‘final chance’’ to give an adequate accounting, and failed to
do so. UNMOVIC inspectors directed by Hans Blix did re-enter Iraq
and conducted some on-site inspections. Even then, the UN inspectors
could not interview weapons scientists in private or gain permission to in-
terview scientists and their families out of the country, where they would
enjoy some safeguards against retaliation. Blix was reduced to playing
needle-in-a-haystack. He could not follow the records or materiel that
might have been removed to Syria, a Ba’athist neighbour. He could not
dig up the Iraqi desert, though the intriguing discovery of a Soviet MiG
buried in the desert sand suggests that unusual storage methods were not
beyond Saddam’s imagination. Indeed, Saddam’s scientific expert on nu-
clear centrifuges admitted after the war in 2003 that he had become ex-
pert in cleansing inspection sites to thwart UNSCOM inspectors, and
had ended up burying crucial design blueprints in his own garden under
a tree.11
Shortly before the coalition’s military intervention, there was a re-
ported meeting in St Petersburg between French President Jacques
Chirac, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russian President
Vladimir Putin to discuss their positions. Several public international
lawyers from each country were reportedly invited to this affair of state
in order to attempt to frame arguments in opposition. But the fat was
thrown in the fire by President Chirac’s statement to the press on
10 March 2003 that in no circumstances would France vote in favour of
renewed authorization of the use of force.12
The Security Council was thus blocked from further action. The United
States, the United Kingdom and Australia, acting in cooperation with the
Emirate of Kuwait, decided to proceed with a military intervention, with-
out extending the UNMOVIC inspections for any further period. Factors
that may have argued in favour of an earlier start were the challenges
in maintaining battle-readiness in a desert bivouac, and the difficulties of
fighting in summer temperatures (especially in chemical protective suits,
since Iraq was believed to have chemical arms). In addition, there was an
advantage in achieving tactical surprise once the Turkish parliament re-
fused to allow the US Fourth Infantry Division to deploy on Iraq’s north-
420 RUTH WEDGWOOD
ern border, and post-war analysts have credited that surprise as a factor
in the coalition’s success in getting to Baghdad with unexpected speed.
Saddam’s calculated exploitation of the 1991 diplomatic pause also
showed the hazards of granting an adversary extra time to prepare, once
an operation was widely seen to be inevitable.
The race to Baghdad went better than anyone expected. The occupa-
tion has been difficult and costly to human life, both civilian and military.
The war planners saw the possible difficulties of house-to-house fighting
in the initial assault on urban areas. But the melting away of Iraqi forces
and the organization of a funded, well-supplied and sustained urban
insurgency in Sunni areas turned the occupation into a continuation of
combat by another name. Even the capture of Saddam Hussein in a ‘‘spi-
der hole’’ near Tikrit has not sufficed to quell the insurgency.
Still, several things have happened since the conclusion of major com-
bat operations that may cast a warmer light on events. First, there is the
remarkable and uplifting celebration of Iraqi democracy. Iraqi women
and men courageously went to the polls in January 2005, and again in
December 2005, defying the danger of car bombs and suicide attacks, in
order to cast their ballots. Their forefingers were painted with indelible
purple ink, to show that they had voted. This safeguard against double
voting provided a view of women and men proudly holding up their
purple fingers, in defiance of the repression of the old regime. Iraq’s ex-
ample was reinforced by the events of Ukraine’s ‘‘orange revolution’’,
sustained by the power of civil disobedience and public demonstration
in rebuffing outside interference in national elections.
Since that time, there has been a ‘‘domino effect’’ of democracy – as if
other regimes newly understand that their citizens will claim the same
voice. The results of a democratic ballot are not always easy in the short
run, especially in the wake of a fundamentalist Islamist movement that
has radicalized some actors. But the long-term trend toward democracy
may be the best chance to bring prosperity and stability to the region.
With the death of Yasir Arafat, the Palestinian people voted for Mah-
moud Abbas as the new president of the Palestinian Authority, upon his
pledge to rid the Authority of its debilitating financial corruption. A year
later, in 2006, the parliamentary showing of Hamas has been startling
to some observers, but its role as a governing coalition may mitigate
its radicalism towards coexistence with Israel. Saudi Arabia held munici-
pal elections in February 2005, and has indicated that women may be
permitted to vote in 2009. President Mubarak of Egypt held presidential
elections in September 2005, though his first impulse was to arrest the
most prominent opposition candidate. The people of Lebanon reacted
to the brazen assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri by de-
manding an end to Syria’s 30-year military occupation of Lebanon. The
MULTINATIONAL ACTION IN IRAQ & INTERNATIONAL LAW 421
So, too, the results of the Iraq Survey Group corroborate that Saddam
had not abandoned his ambitions. Iraq Survey Group director Charles
Duelfer, who had also served as Deputy Executive Chairman of UN-
SCOM under both Ekeus and Butler, concluded that the Iraqi Intelli-
gence Service ‘‘maintained throughout 1991 to 2003 a set of undeclared
covert laboratories to research and test various chemicals and poisons,
primarily for intelligence operations’’.19 In addition, the Survey Group
‘‘uncovered Iraqi plans or designs for three long-range ballistic missiles
with ranges from 400 to 1,000 km and for a 1,000 km-range cruise mis-
sile’’. Although these were still in the design phase, this was a forbidden
enterprise and was accompanied by the importation of engines from Po-
land, and possibly Russia or Belarus, which would have supported longer-
range missiles, and by the importation of missile guidance and control
systems. The Duelfer report concluded that Saddam Hussein ‘‘wanted to
end sanctions while preserving the capability to reconstitute his weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) when sanctions were lifted’’. Yet, of course,
the regime created by Resolution 687 would not be satisfied by a momen-
tarily empty larder. Rather, it required the dismantling of WMD pro-
grammes in perpetuity. It is hard, then, to know how inspections would
quell this commitment. Inspectors, supported by 225,000 troops in the
desert, would have had to continue their work until Saddam and his heirs
had finished their natural span of years.
The final post-war development that has put the assessments of Reso-
lutions 678, 687 and 1441 into a different light is the so-called ‘‘Oil-for-
Food’’ scandal. Starting in 1997, the UN sanctions programme permitted
Iraq to sell significant amounts of oil for the purpose of raising money
for humanitarian supplies, as well as to pay reparations demanded by
the Iraqi Claims Commission, a body sitting under UN auspices in Gen-
eva. The investigative report by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul
Volcker, appointed by the Secretary-General, concluded that a UN direc-
tor of the Oil-for-Food programme obtained a cash pay-off for steering
valuable oil purchase vouchers to a favoured company.20 Oil allotments
were allegedly given by Saddam to prominent politicians of Security
Council member states, to outspoken opponents of the Iraqi sanctions,
and to two family members of a former UN Secretary-General, acting
for an Egyptian oil company. The steady flow of illicit cash to Iraq as
kickbacks on oil purchases and surcharges on contracts for the supply of
humanitarian goods meant that the regime had a steady supply of hard
currency to use as it might wish, including for the purchase of weapons
components. Thus, the Oil-for-Food scandal means that economic sanc-
tions had, in a sense, already been lifted against Iraq, at least as regards
high-priority regime purchases. There could be no guarantee that forbid-
den fruit was really out of reach, even while UN weapons inspectors
424 RUTH WEDGWOOD
Notes
1. Ruth Wedgwood, ‘‘Legal Authority Exists for a Strike on Iraq’’, Financial Times, 13
March 2003.
2. Adam Roberts, ‘‘Law and the Use of Force’’, Survival, Vol. 45, No. 2 (2003), p. 31. See
also Adam Roberts, ‘‘International Law and the Iraq War 2003’’, Memorandum for the
Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, Written Evidence for the Tenth Report: Foreign
Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism (London: HMSO, 31 July 2003), available
at hhttp://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmfaff.htmi.
3. See Ruth Wedgwood, ‘‘The Fall of Saddam Hussein, Security Council Mandates
and Preemptive Self-Defense’’, American Journal of International Law, Vol. 97 (2003),
pp. 25, 29.
4. The suggestion has been made that a ‘‘material breach’’ of a Council resolution is differ-
ent from the material breach of a treaty, and may lack the same suspensive effect. But
the Council itself has used the idea of material breach in just this way throughout the
12-year history of Resolution 687. See Ruth Wedgwood, ‘‘The Enforcement of Security
Council Resolution 687: The Threat of Force against Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruc-
tion’’, American Journal of International Law, Vol. 92 (1998), pp. 724, 727 and accom-
panying notes.
5. See, e.g., Human Rights Watch, Iraq’s Crime of Genocide: The Anfal Campaign against
the Kurds (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995).
6. Report of the Secretary-General on the Status of the Implementation of the Special Com-
mission’s Plan for the Ongoing Monitoring and Verification of Iraq’s Compliance with
Relevant Parts of Section C of Security Council Resolution 687 (1991), UN Doc. S/1995/
864, p. 29, para. 75(w).
7. See Mahdi Obeidi and Kurt Pitzer, The Bomb in My Garden: The Secret of Saddam’s
Nuclear Mastermind (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2004). See also ‘‘Statement by David
Kay on the Interim Progress Report on the Activities of the Iraq Survey Group (ISG)
before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, the House Committee
on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Defense, and the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence’’, 2 October 2003, hhttp://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/2003/
david_kay_10022003.htmli.
8. See, generally, Frits Kalshoven, Belligerent Reprisals (Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff, 2005).
9. There was no additional Security Council resolution preceding Operation Desert Fox.
So, too, in 1993, US, UK and French aircraft took part in limited air attacks against
Iraqi radar sites as a means of coercing Iraqi compliance with inspection requirements.
See Wedgwood, ‘‘The Enforcement of Security Council Resolution 687’’, pp. 724, 727–
728.
MULTINATIONAL ACTION IN IRAQ & INTERNATIONAL LAW 425
10. See Ruth Wedgwood, ‘‘Responding to Terrorism: The Strikes against Bin Laden’’, Yale
Journal of International Law, Vol. 24 (1999), p. 559.
11. Obeidi and Pitzer, The Bomb in My Garden.
12. See ‘‘Interview Télévisée sur l’Iraq du Président de la République, M. Jacques Chirac
(10 mars 2003), par Patrick Poivre d’Arvor (TF1) et David Pujadas (France 2)’’, Palais
de l’Elysée, hhttp://www.elysee.fr/elysee/francais/les_dossiers/iraq/de_janvier_a_mars_
2003/de_janvier_a_mars_2003.21454.htmli.
13. Security Council Resolution 1559, 28 February 2004.
14. A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility. Report of the Secretary-General’s
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (New York: United Nations,
2004), p. 64, para. 194.
15. Kofi Annan, On Sovereignty and Intervention, reprinted in ‘‘Secretary-General Presents
His Annual Report to General Assembly’’, UN Press Release SG/SM/7136, GA/9596
(20 September 1999). See also Kofi Annan, ‘‘Two Concepts of Sovereignty’’, The Econ-
omist, 18 September 1999.
16. Remarks of Secretary-General Kofi Annan, A More Secure World: Who Needs to Do
What? (Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations, 16 December 2004).
17. Rolf Ekeus, ‘‘Don’t Be Fooled, They Found More Than You Think’’, Sunday Times
(London), 9 October 2003, News Review, p. 7. See also Rolf Ekeus, ‘‘Iraq’s Real Weap-
ons Threat’’, Washington Post, 29 June 2003.
18. Ekeus, ‘‘Don’t Be Fooled, They Found More Than You Think’’, p. 7.
19. ‘‘Key Findings’’, in Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s
WMD [Duelfer Report], Vol. I, 30 September 2004, at hhttp://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/
iraq_wmd_2004/i.
20. Independent Inquiry Committee into the United Nations Oil-for-Food Programme,
Third Interim Report, 8 August 2005, available at hhttp://www.iic-offp.org/documents.
htmi.
26
Iraq and the social logic
of international security
Jean-Marc Coicaud
I don’t care what the international lawyers say; we are going to kick some ass.
(George W. Bush, 11 September 2001)1
426
IRAQ AND THE SOCIAL LOGIC OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 427
tions, they have been largely proven wrong in the aftermath of the war
against Iraq. Third, the chapter explores how the international order
could be improved. Here it calls for a social conception of international
security – one reconciling power and principles and making the search
for international legitimacy a key element of international order.
Since 2001 the Bush administration has not hesitated to state in the
clearest manner the main beliefs that shape its foreign policy and to
have these words followed by actions. A rapid analysis of Bush’s foreign
policy in theory and practice suffices to show this.
The Bush administration did not wait for the hijacked jetliners to hit
the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon outside Washington
DC in September 2001 to act upon its radical conservative assumptions
about US power and its relations with the world. The presidential cam-
paign of 2000 made it clear that the Republicans intended to be as little
constrained as possible by the United Nations and multilateralism and
to give close to no attention to non-security issues. From 2001 onwards,
Bush’s foreign policy, including its response to 9/11 and the war against
Iraq, illustrated this state of affairs.
‘‘What you are going to get from this administration is ‘à la carte multi-
lateralism’ ’’, said Richard Haass, at the time the US State Department’s
director of policy planning, coining a term for the administration’s
approach in its pre-9/11 months.10 Ultimately, the value of the United
Nations and multilateralism – not seen as ends in themselves – was to be
assessed in a purely instrumental way, based on their utility for US na-
tional interest.
Iraq show that the US national interest is not the sole yardstick for as-
sessing the legitimacy of US foreign policy and international legitimacy
as a whole, let alone of the political order favoured by the United States
in the countries in which it intervenes.
To begin with, the fact that the strategic reasons put forward by the
Bush administration for going to war were fallacious has not helped.
Weapons of mass destruction are nowhere to be seen in Iraq. And in
June 2004, the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the
United States (also known as the 9-11 Commission), put in place to in-
quire into 9/11, stated that there was no proven link between al-Qaeda
and Saddam Hussein’s regime.19
The ways in which force has been used by US troops on the ground
have also been a major problem. Rules of engagement (with an inclina-
tion to shoot first and ask questions later) and torture (if not officially
decided, at least encouraged and informally approved at the highest
level20) did not boost the United States’ reputation and ability to trans-
late its power into influence and legitimacy.21
Moreover, the Bush administration has experienced first hand how dif-
ficult it is to ensure security and reconstruct Iraq more or less on its own.
It has learned the hard way that the United States needs the political,
military, financial and logistical support of as many countries as possible.
In this regard, the Bush administration has painfully learned that it is dif-
ficult to ignore the United Nations, in spite of all its shortcomings. This is
particularly the case because the European allies that it needed the most
– France and Germany – were eager to have the United Nations in-
volved. Subsequently, in occupying Iraq by and large alone, the United
States contributed less to the redesigning of international legality and le-
gitimacy than to the undermining of its own credibility and legitimacy.
As a whole, the failures of Bush’s foreign policy in Iraq illustrate the
social dimension of legitimacy. Legitimacy is not a self-declared phenom-
enon. It requires at minimum the recognition and consent of others. This
is true at the national level; it is equally true, if not more so, at the inter-
national level. Because competition, tension and confrontation tend to
shape international life, any sense of legitimacy at the international level
has to be a shared view.22 This social dimension is a requirement of inter-
national legitimacy in general; but it is also a requirement for the legiti-
macy of any given foreign policy. This requirement is of particular impor-
tance for the United States, considering its global reach and democratic
claims. Unlike the rather inconsequential international impact of a coun-
try of secondary importance, the overwhelming international power of
the United States is certain to have a tremendous effect on other nations.
If these nations are not consulted, a rift is destined to emerge and deepen,
as has happened in recent years.
434 JEAN-MARC COICAUD
Against this background, it does not come as a surprise that the mix of
right and wrong that characterizes Bush’s foreign policy assumptions had
more negative than positive impacts on international order and on the
norms and institutions underwriting it.
conduct of the war have ignored the Geneva Conventions (torture, lack
of due process). The cumulative impact of this state of affairs has weak-
ened international order at three levels at least.
The self-serving conception and discretionary use of the multilateral
mechanisms and obligations put forward by Bush’s foreign policy have
undermined the system of international legitimacy that multilateralism
seeks to provide. By promoting a double standard attitude – with a max-
imum of entitlements and a minimum of duties for the United States, and
a maximum of duties and a minimum of rights for other states – the Bush
administration has made it even less attractive for other states to accept
the constraints associated with international reciprocity and with the dy-
namics of rights and duties.25 Its unilateral approach to international af-
fairs and its self-serving multilateralism have been an invitation to more
one-sided attitudes. Ultimately, the idea and possibility of a credible re-
gime of international cooperation and of international legality and legiti-
macy are endangered.
The credibility of the United States and of its message concerning
democratic values has been weakened as well. As a result, the ability of
the US leadership in particular to rally other nations in the service of in-
ternational law and multilateralism has been altered. This is a problem
for the last resort role that the United States plays in international order
and for international order itself. It means that the United States’ foreign
policy is not seen as being the expression and tool of international legiti-
macy. Considering the pivotal role that the United States plays in the in-
ternational distribution of power, this tends to cripple the international
order with a sense of international illegitimacy.26
Finally, there is the negative effect of Bush’s policy on the Middle East.
Three elements come to the fore here. First, far from contributing to a
reduction in terrorism, Bush’s foreign policy has allowed it to spread in
the region, and has contributed to its internalization in Iraq. The policy
has also contributed to the establishment of a link between terrorism
in Iraq and regional terrorism, if not international terrorism. Secondly,
rather than bringing stability to the Middle East, Bush’s foreign policy
has increased its instability. Various actors, inside and outside Iraq, see
the possibility of the descent of Iraq into a civil war as an opportunity to
further their interests. Thirdly, the difficulties encountered by the United
States in Iraq give hope to non-democratic Arab regimes. The failure to
make Iraq stable helps their case. Authoritarian rule, once more, could
emerge as the surest way to preserve stability in the Middle East.
The war against Iraq and its aftermath have shown that the United
States and the United Nations (or multilateralism) are largely mutually
dependent. It is difficult for one to do without the other. It is true that
the United States is able to act unilaterally. Doing so, however, raises
the question of the legitimacy of its foreign policy, if not the legitimacy
of the international system that it underwrites. Conversely, without the
United States playing by multilateral rules, the United Nations runs the
risk of being reduced to a second-class international citizen. In the pro-
cess, its overall relevance and legitimacy are in jeopardy.
Furthermore, a divorce between the United States and the United Na-
tions would be likely to increase global instability. Since most countries
favour a multilateral approach, resentment towards the United States
would grow. Moreover, the rest of the world (including the Europeans)
is neither willing nor able to take up the task of collective security on its
own, without the United States. The mission of preserving international
security could end up facing two opposite but equally challenging predic-
aments: too much concentration or too much diffusion of power. In the
first case, the United States alone would be more or less in charge of
global security, with the various associated dangers. These dangers could
include making US power a global scapegoat for whatever went wrong.
In the second case, left to the goodwill of local actors, the international
order might largely remain unattended to.
Completely getting rid of the tensions between the United States and
438 JEAN-MARC COICAUD
the United Nations and achieving a fully stable (and just) international
order are not on the cards at present. The tendency to a national bias in
international life and the inter-state structure that it gives to international
order lead to unavoidable tensions, if not conflicts, and limitations on
international justice. Nevertheless, there are a number of ways to reduce
these tensions and limitations. Two types of change could help: reconcil-
ing power and principles; and adjusting US foreign policy.
ties one has.27 In this perspective, the United States may very well be the
first power to be accountable globally.
Notes
1. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America’s War on Terror (New York:
Free Press, 2004), p. 24.
2. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: The
White House, September 2002).
3. On this point, see, for example, David C. Hendrickson, ‘‘America’s Dangerous Quest
for Absolute Security’’, World Policy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Autumn 2002).
4. G. John Ikenberry, ‘‘America’s Imperial Ambition’’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 5
(September/October 2002); and David E. Sanger, ‘‘Bush to Outline Doctrine of Striking
Foes First’’, New York Times, 20 September 2002.
5. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Preface.
6. Ibid., p. 30. On this issue, see also Eric P. Schwartz, ‘‘The United States and the Inter-
national Criminal Court: The Case for ‘Dexterous Multilateralism’ ’’, Chicago Journal of
International Law, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Spring 2003).
7. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, p. 7.
8. Ibid., pp. 21–22 and p. 31.
9. Ibid., p. 10.
10. Quoted in Thom Shanker, ‘‘White House Says the US Is Not a Loner, Just Choosy’’,
New York Times, 31 July 2001. A few months earlier, Richard Haass went as far as to
call upon Americans to ‘‘re-conceive their global role from one of a traditional nation-
state to an imperial power’’ (Richard Haass, ‘‘Imperial America’’, paper presented at
the Atlanta Conference, 11 November 2000, hhttp://www.brook.edu/views/articles/
haass/2000imperial.htmi).
11. George W. Bush, The President’s State of the Union Address, 29 January 2002, hhttp://
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.htmli. See also David Frum,
The Right Man. The Surprise Presidency of George W. Bush (An Inside Account) (New
York: Random House, 2003), Chapters 10 and 12.
12. On the neoconservatives and their influence on Bush’s foreign policy, see, for example,
‘‘The Shadow Men’’, The Economist, 26 April–2 May 2003, pp. 27–29.
442 JEAN-MARC COICAUD
13. On Colin Powell and his views on multilateralism, see, for example, Bill Keller, ‘‘The
World According to Powell’’, New York Times Magazine, 25 November 2001.
14. Remarks by the President in Address to the United Nations General Assembly, New York,
12 September 2002, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020912-1.
htmli.
15. Resolution 1441 (2002), adopted by the Security Council 8 November 2002, UN Doc.
S/RES/1441 (2002), para. 13.
16. In their various briefings of the Security Council – on 9 January 2003, reporting on
Iraq’s arms declaration; on 27 January, in their 60-day update, since its return to Iraq,
of the activities of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
(UNMOVIC); and on 14 February and 7 March – Hans Blix, Executive Chairman of
UNMOVIC, and Mohamed ElBaradei, Director-General of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, indicated that, based on the information collected, the existence of
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq was not proved. See also Glen Rangwala, Natha-
niel Hurd and Alistair Millar, ‘‘A Case for Concern, Not a Case for War’’, in Micah L.
Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds, The Iraq War Reader. History, Documents, Opinions
(New York: Touchstone, 2003), pp. 457–463.
17. On this issue, see Michael Byers, ‘‘Agreeing to Disagree: Security Council Resolution
1441 and Intentional Ambiguity’’, Global Governance, Vol. 10, No. 2 (April–June
2004).
18. UN Security Council Resolution 1483, adopted 22 May 2003, UN Doc. S/RES/1483
(2003), requested the Secretary-General to appoint a Special Representative for Iraq,
with responsibilities for coordinating humanitarian and reconstruction assistance by
UN agencies and between UN agencies and non-governmental organizations.
19. Twelfth public hearing of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon
the United States, Staff Statement No. 15, hhttp://www.9-11commission.gov/staff_
statements/staff_statement_15.pdfi.
20. See the Alberto Gonzales Memorandum to President Bush, 25 January 2002, on the ap-
plication of the Geneva Convention on prisoners of war to the conflict with al-Qaeda
and the Taliban. In the memorandum, the White House Counsel argues that the
war against terrorism ‘‘renders obsolete Geneva’s strict limitations on questioning of
enemy prisoners’’. Memo quoted on the website of the Center for American Progress,
hhttp://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ80VF&b=246536i. Refer also to
‘‘Shameful Revelations Will Haunt Bush’’, The Economist, 18 June 2004; Beyond Tor-
ture: U.S. Violations of Occupation Law in Iraq, A Report by the Center for Economic
and Social Rights, June 2004, hhttp://www.cesr.org/beyondtorture.pdfi; and Seymour M.
Hersh, Chain of Command. The Road from 9/11 to Abu Ghraib (New York: Harper-
Collins, 2004), Chapter 1. See also Karen J. Greenberg and Joshua L. Drate, eds, The
Torture Papers. The Road to Abu Ghraib (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2005).
21. Refer to Beyond Torture.
22. Christian Reus-Smit, American Power and World Order (Cambridge: Polity Press,
2004), pp. 55–67.
23. This is one of the reasons behind the research project of which this book is the
result.
24. A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility. Report of the Secretary-General’s
High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (New York: United Nations, 2004)
is part of the efforts of the United Nations to factor in the changes that have taken place
in the international landscape in the past few years and to adapt to them in order to pre-
serve, if not enhance, its relevance. The UN World Summit of September 2005, which
was meant to implement its recommendations, did not amount to much.
IRAQ AND THE SOCIAL LOGIC OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 443
25. See Thomas M. Franck, ‘‘The Role of International Law and the United Nations after
Iraq’’, American Society of International Law, Washington DC, 2 April 2004.
26. Francis Fukuyama, ‘‘The Neoconservative Moment’’, The National Interest, Issue 76
(Summer 2004).
27. Jean-Marc Coicaud, Legitimacy and Politics. A Contribution to the Study of Political
Right and Political Responsibility (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
28. For more on this issue, see Jean-Marc Coicaud, Beyond the National Interest (Washing-
ton, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, forthcoming 2006).
29. Gerrit W. Gong, The Standard of ‘‘Civilization’’ in International Society (Oxford: Clar-
endon Press, 1984), pp. 81–93.
27
Justifying the Iraq war as a
humanitarian intervention:
The cure is worse than the disease
Nicholas J. Wheeler and Justin Morris
Introduction
What impact has the US-led intervention in Iraq had on the develop-
ing norm of humanitarian intervention in international society? Typi-
cally, there are two opposing responses to this question. On the one
hand, critics of the invocation by President George W. Bush and Prime
Ministers Tony Blair and John Howard of humanitarian claims to justify
the war against Iraq argue that this was a classic and dangerous case of
state leaders abusing humanitarian rationales for ulterior political ends.
Moreover, those who voice such concerns but are themselves supportive
of international action to end gross human rights abuses – whom we term
‘‘liberal internationalists’’ – argue that the likely effect of these appeals
will be to undercut political support for future interventions that could
legitimately be defended on humanitarian grounds. Set against this,
supporters of the Iraq intervention – whom we call the ‘‘new liberal
interventionists’’ – argue that it is defensible on moral grounds, and that
international law should be changed to permit armed intervention to re-
move tyrannical regimes such as that of Saddam Hussein. Consequently,
far from discrediting the emerging norm of humanitarian intervention,
this group views the Iraq intervention as setting an important precedent
for future actions of this kind.
The premise guiding this chapter is that neither of the above positions
should be accepted on grounds of either theory or policy. The first part of
444
THE IRAQ WAR AS A HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION 445
the chapter briefly maps out the arguments supporting a new norm of hu-
manitarian intervention in the 1990s. We then turn to an examination of
the contention that Iraq is a clear-cut case of states misusing moral argu-
ments for political ends. Although we refute the claim of the new liberal
interventionists that the intervention in Iraq has produced – or is produc-
ing – a positive humanitarian outcome, equally we reject the argument
that, in acting as they did, Bush and Blair were abusing the norm of hu-
manitarian intervention. We reject the argument on two grounds. First, it
fails to capture the belief of Bush and Blair – and their closest advisers –
that regime change in Iraq was genuinely justifiable on moral grounds.
The problem is not that Bush and Blair were manipulating humanitarian
claims for selfish purposes, but rather that their conception of humani-
tarianism, most especially in the case of Bush, is coterminous with the
spread of liberal values. Secondly, the argument that the United King-
dom and the United States abused humanitarian claims fails to acknowl-
edge that the dominant justification – and certainly the only formal legal
argument pressed into service to justify the war – related to Iraq’s non-
compliance with existing UN Security Council resolutions regarding pos-
session of weapons of mass destruction.
The final part of the chapter investigates the argument, championed by
Blair, that the UN Security Council should intervene militarily in cases
where governments abuse human rights on a widespread and regular ba-
sis. Whereas currently the emerging normative consensus at the United
Nations supports military intervention for humanitarian protection only
in cases of genocide and/or mass killing, the proposition advanced by
the new liberal interventionists is that the threshold justifying armed
action should be lowered to encompass regimes that massively abuse hu-
man rights. However, such a move is not going to find political support at
the United Nations. The majority of states remain stubbornly committed
to the norm of non-intervention except in the most egregious of cases.
Moreover, what many governments perceive as the misuse of humanitar-
ian arguments over Iraq has served only to reinforce their concerns about
the dangers of legitimizing a new rule of humanitarian intervention in
international society. This criticism misconstrues the motives behind
the Iraq intervention; nevertheless, the very perception of abuse serves
to undermine the further consolidation of a norm of humanitarian inter-
vention. This, however, is not the primary reason that the new liberal in-
terventionist agenda should be opposed. Rather, in seeking to legitimize
action outside the UN framework that significantly limits sovereign rights,
it risks eroding what progress has been made in moving international
society towards a limited doctrine of UN-authorized humanitarian
intervention.
446 NICHOLAS J. WHEELER AND JUSTIN MORRIS
from genocide and war in Rwanda, Sudan and the Democratic Republic
of the Congo (DRC). In the case of NATO’s intervention in Kosovo, the
major Western states were prepared to employ force for a complex mix
of humanitarian and security reasons. But the emergent norm of civilian
protection was insufficient to motivate these same governments to put
their troops in harm’s way to save Rwandans from genocide in 1994.
The problem is that the norm enables new possibilities of intervention,
but it does not determine that such actions will take place. The moral lim-
itations of the project of humanitarian intervention in the 1990s can be
seen in the fact that in no case have states intervened when there were
no vital interests at stake and/or where there were perceived to be high
risks to the lives of intervening forces. This produces a pattern of inter-
vention that is highly selective, frequently driven by considerations of na-
tional self-interest rather than humanitarian need.6 It also ensures that,
when intervention does take place, it is widely viewed as morally hypo-
critical, a rhetorical instrument that rationalizes the projection of force
by the powerful. Iraq is only the latest intervention where this long-
standing critique can be strongly heard.
moval of Saddam Hussein’s regime would produce a better life and less
suffering for the people of Iraq’’.9 This sentiment was also strongly held
by Blair and his Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. The Foreign and Com-
monwealth Office released a report in November 2002 documenting the
gross and systematic abuses of human rights that had taken place in Iraq
since Saddam came to power. Moreover, speaking at the Labour Party’s
local government, women’s and youth conferences in Glasgow on 15 Feb-
ruary 2003, the same day that 1 million people were marching against war
on the streets of London, Blair championed the moral argument for war.
He challenged delegates to remember that, ‘‘if the result of peace is Sad-
dam staying in power . . . then I tell you there are consequences paid in
blood for that decision too. But these victims will never be seen. They
will never feature on our TV screens or inspire millions to take to the
streets. But they will exist nonetheless. Ridding the world of Saddam
would be an act of humanity. It is leaving him there that is in truth
inhumane.’’10
Critics of the war argue that these moral justifications are hypocritical
and self-serving. They cite UK and US inaction in the face of Saddam
Hussein’s terrible oppression of the Kurds in the late 1980s, the establish-
ment of a sanctions regime that inflicted terrible suffering on the civilian
population, and revelations regarding the brutal treatment of Iraqi de-
tainees in support of this case. Each of these criticisms is, of course, open
to a counter-argument: the West’s support for the Iraqi leader and conse-
quent failure to protect the Kurds appear more reasonable when viewed
in the context of the Cold War and the perceived threat from Iranian fun-
damentalism; the US and UK view of sanctions was driven by the expec-
tation that they would produce regime change in Baghdad by triggering
an internal uprising and by concerns that lifting the sanctions would en-
able Saddam to procure components for his nascent WMD programmes;
and the US and UK culpability for the mistreatment of detainees de-
pends upon the extent to which political leaders were complicit in the ac-
tions of subordinates. Whatever the balance of these arguments, what is
important is the perception of many governments and national publics
that, to the extent that humanitarian arguments were employed, the
United Kingdom and the United States were deliberately using them to
cloak the pursuit of baser national interests.
Viewed in this light, the real motivations that led Washington and Lon-
don to deploy troops to Iraq are seen to be geopolitical and strategic.
This is not the place to delve into these factors in great detail, but it is
clear that for the United States a mix of the following considerations sup-
ported a policy of forcible regime change in Baghdad: long-term anxiety
about how to manage a nuclear-armed Saddam; the associated fear that
Iraqi WMD might find their way – deliberately or inadvertently – into
450 NICHOLAS J. WHEELER AND JUSTIN MORRIS
the hands of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda; the conviction that there
was a war-winning strategy in Iraq that would serve as a demonstration
effect to other states about the consequences of challenging Washington;
the hope that Iraq could serve as a new beacon of democracy in the
Middle East; the desire to remove a long-term foe of Israel; and the
desire to secure long-term access to Iraq’s major oil supplies. Not all of
these rationales played in the UK context but, critically, an additional
one did, namely Blair’s belief that public and unstinting loyalty to the
United States would be reciprocated by greater UK influence over the
course of US policy. This article of faith in the so-called ‘‘special relation-
ship’’ has been a hardy perennial in British foreign policy since 1945, and
it was never more visible than over Iraq.
Clearly, without at least some of the above motivations, it is inconceiv-
able that Bush and Blair would have acted to overthrow Saddam Hus-
sein, but the fact that the primary – though not exclusive – motivations
were non-humanitarian does not necessarily negate a positive humanitar-
ian outcome. Motives matter only if they contradict the stated humanitar-
ian justification for an action.11 The question is whether, from a human
rights perspective, it is reasonable to support a military intervention that
has as one of its declared ends the termination of human rights abuses,
when this is not one of the motives behind the action or at best is a sec-
ondary consideration. Those new liberal interventionists who support the
Iraq war but consider that humanitarian motives were not paramount
point to the beneficial consequences of the action. Thus, Michael Igna-
tieff argues that, ‘‘if the consequence of intervention is a rights-respecting
Iraq in a decade or so, who cares whether the intentions that led to
it were mixed at best?’’12 Similarly, William Shawcross, in entering the
political minefield over Blair’s WMD justification for war, argues that
‘‘what really matters . . . is to build upon the first opportunity Iraqis have
ever had to create a decent society’’.13
Because intervention will rarely be motivated primarily – let alone
singularly – by humanitarian purposes, the privileging of humanitarian
outcomes over motivations is a good reply to those critics who oppose es-
tablishing a doctrine of humanitarian intervention. However, such an ar-
gument rests on two key premises, both of which are deeply problematic
in the case of Iraq. The first is the accuracy of the claim, frequently reit-
erated by Bush and Blair, that Iraq is a much better place as a result
of the intervention. If Iraq evolves in the next few years into a tolerant
rights-respecting society, then this will provide support to those who seek
to represent the Iraq war as a justifiable humanitarian intervention. How-
ever, any such assessment would have to weigh on the debit side of the
equation the thousands of Iraqi civilians killed during the war, the civil-
ians who have been killed, injured or abused by both the resistance and
THE IRAQ WAR AS A HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION 451
have long worried that the major Western powers, and especially the
United States, might employ human rights justifications as a pretext to le-
gitimate military intervention. These suspicions are seen to have been
confirmed by the action in Iraq and, although the General Assembly
signed up to a declaration on the ‘‘Responsibility to Protect’’ in Septem-
ber 2005, it remains to be seen to what extent Council members will be
prepared to give teeth to this in future cases of egregious human suffer-
ing. In this regard, any future expansion of the Council designed to en-
sure greater Southern representation is likely to prove deleterious from
a new liberal interventionist standpoint. Exactly how this will factor into
the further development of the norm of humanitarian intervention re-
mains a matter of conjecture, but it is unlikely that increasing representa-
tion from Africa, Asia and Latin America will result in a Council more
inclined to support humanitarian intervention.
The new liberal interventionists want to use Iraq to advance the case
for military intervention to remove tyrannical regimes. However, liberal
internationalists who are committed to establishing a new global consen-
sus supporting UN-authorized humanitarian intervention fear that the
Iraq war undermines the limited progress made to date. For example,
Evans argues that, because Iraq is interpreted in wider international soci-
ety as a case of abuse, this would make it much more difficult to persuade
other governments to support future interventions justified in humanitar-
ian terms. In May 2004 he argued that, as a consequence of the Iraq war,
an ‘‘emerging international norm of real potential utility was once again
struggling for acceptance’’.35 Reflecting the same anxiety, Roth cau-
tioned that ‘‘the effort to justify it [the Iraq war] even in part in humani-
tarian terms risk[s] [breeding] cynicism about the use of military force for
humanitarian purposes [which] could be devastating for people in need
of future rescue’’.36
The dismal failure of the international community to respond effec-
tively to the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur in western Sudan in
2004 appeared to confirm Roth’s worst fears: it is estimated that at least
100,000 Sudanese civilians have been killed by government-sponsored
militias in the past two years, and, as of December 2005, 2 million people
were internally displaced in Darfur and at risk from malnutrition and dis-
ease.37 US Secretary of State Colin Powell took the momentous step on 9
September 2004 of declaring the catastrophe in Darfur to be a case of
genocide,38 but, if he expected this act of naming to galvanize the inter-
national community to respond decisively to the crisis, his hopes were to
be dashed. The international community remained stubbornly passive in
the face of what was at the time the world’s worst humanitarian crisis,
and it seemed that the war in Iraq had done little to help those who
458 NICHOLAS J. WHEELER AND JUSTIN MORRIS
Conclusion
The war against Iraq has produced a major fissure in the liberal inter-
national consensus forged in the 1990s concerning the justifiability of mil-
itary intervention for humanitarian protection. This was predicated on
the assumption that sovereign rights should be limited in cases of geno-
cide and/or mass killings when a government was unable or unwilling to
provide protection to its citizens.40 It is paradoxical that the General As-
sembly signed up to this principle in September 2005 because the interna-
tional consensus underpinning this position has been put under great
strain as a consequence of attempts by the new liberal interventionists
to justify the Iraq war as a humanitarian intervention. This move is con-
demned across the political spectrum as a convenient rationalization, and
those within the liberal camp committed to working through the United
Nations worry that defending the Iraq war as a humanitarian interven-
tion sets back the cause of entrenching the norm of the responsibility to
protect.
This chapter has argued that the charge of abuse oversimplifies the
complex set of motivations that led Bush and Blair to overthrow Saddam
Hussein, but endorses the liberal internationalist position that the Iraq
war fails as a justifiable humanitarian intervention. However, in arguing
that Iraq was not a simple case of abuse, it is necessary to recognize that
humanitarian motives were not the primary driver behind the US and
UK intervention. The Iraq war is a significant factor in the wider debate
about the legitimacy of humanitarian intervention, not because it was pri-
marily justified as such an act but because of the nature and magnitude of
the human suffering that resulted from the war. Yet it does not follow
that, because the Bush administration accorded a low priority to civilian
protection in post-war military planning, the Iraq war is a clear-cut case
of abuse. The administration should be held to account for its over-
reliance on Iraqi exiles who had their own agenda; for thinking that the
Iraqis would greet US forces with open arms; and for ignoring the advice
of senior military officers and area experts in the State Department. The
US failure to discharge its responsibilities for providing security as the
occupying power justifies charges of incompetence and even negligence,
but this does not mean that the moral impulse to spread US conceptions
of freedom and human dignity was mere subterfuge. That said, what the
Iraq war highlights is that those who employ human rights rationales will
be believed only if they demonstrate by their actions that military means
are supporting humanitarian values.
The fundamental concern that animates many governments, human
rights international non-governmental organizations and public intellec-
tuals is the deleterious impact of the Iraq war on the developing norm of
460 NICHOLAS J. WHEELER AND JUSTIN MORRIS
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Alex Bellamy, Ken Berry, Ian Clark, Cian
O’Driscoll, Tim Dunne, Anne Harris, Andrew Linklater, Gerry Simpson
and Paul Williams for their comments on earlier versions of this chapter.
It was originally presented at a conference on ‘‘Iraq and World Order:
Structural and Normative Challenges’’, jointly hosted by the King Prajad-
hipok Institute, the United Nations University and the International
Peace Academy on 17–18 August 2004 in Bangkok, Thailand. We are
grateful to all the participants at the conference for their contribution to
the ideas in the chapter.
Notes
1. For a fuller discussion of this case, see Nicholas J. Wheeler, Saving Strangers: Humani-
tarian Intervention in International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000),
pp. 55–77.
2. 2005 World Summit Outcome, UN Doc. A/60/L.1, 20 September 2005, hhttp://daccessdds.
un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N05/511/30/PDF/N0551130.pdf?OpenElementi (accessed 26
September 2005), p. 31.
3. It would be wrong to give the impression that this pushing out of the boundaries of le-
gitimate intervention was uncontested. Rather, as the deliberations over intervention in
northern Iraq in 1991 and in Somalia in 1992 demonstrated, there was resistance from
those states that worried about setting precedents that might erode the principle of
non-intervention.
4. Kofi A. Annan, ‘‘Two Concepts of Sovereignty’’, Address to the 54th Session of the
General Assembly, 20 September 1999, reprinted in Kofi A. Annan, The Question of In-
tervention: Statements by the Secretary General (New York: United Nations, 1999), p. 44.
5. This argument is developed in Thomas Franck, Recourse to Force: State Action Against
Threats and Armed Attacks (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), p. 185.
6. Even where states are not acting according to narrow self-interests, there is no escape
from selectivity in the application of moral principles. In some cases military interven-
tion is rightly ruled out on the grounds that armed action would do more harm than
good (Chechnya and Tibet are obvious examples here). As Michael Ignatieff notes,
‘‘perfect consistency is a test of legitimacy that political action can never meet, and
hence the prerequisite of consistency serves (even if it does not intend to do so) either
as a justification for doing nothing or as a condemnation of any intervention actually un-
dertaken’’ (Michael Ignatieff, ‘‘Human Rights, Power and the State’’, in Simon Chester-
man, Michael Ignatieff and Ramesh Thakur, eds, Making States Work, Tokyo: United
Nations University Press, 2005, p. 60; Chris Brown, ‘‘Selective Humanitarianism: In De-
fence of Inconsistency’’, in Deen K. Chatterjee and Don E. Scheid, eds, Ethics and For-
eign Intervention, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 31–53).
7. President George W. Bush, ‘‘State of the Union’’ Address, 28 January 2003, hhttp://
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.htmli (accessed 10 June 2004).
8. Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation, 17 March 2003, hhttp://www.
whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030317-7.htmli (accessed 10 June 2004).
462 NICHOLAS J. WHEELER AND JUSTIN MORRIS
9. Transcript, the Prime Minister to the National Press Club, The Great Hall, Parliament
House, Canberra, 14 March 2003.
10. Speech by Prime Minister at Labour’s local government, women’s and youth confer-
ences, SECC, Glasgow, 15 February 2003, hhttp://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/tbiraq/i.
11. This argument is developed at length in Wheeler, Saving Strangers.
12. Michael Ignatieff, ‘‘Why Are We in Iraq? (And Liberia? And Afghanistan?)’’, New
York Times, 7 September 2003.
13. William Shawcross, ‘‘Blair Was Right on Iraq’’, Guardian, 21 July 2004.
14. A research team at Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University in
Baltimore estimated in 2004 that as many as 100,000 civilians had died in Iraq as a direct
or indirect consequence of the US-led invasion. The methodology underpinning the
report has been challenged, and others put the figure much lower. For example, the
Baghdad-based Iraqi human rights organizations estimate the figure at 30,000, and Iraq
Body Count puts the number at 28,000–32,000 (see Elisabeth Rosenthal, ‘‘Study Puts
Iraqi Deaths of Civilians at 100,000’’, New York Times, 29 October 2004; Rob Stein,
‘‘100,000 Civilian Deaths Estimated in Iraq’’, Washington Post, 29 October 2004; Patrick
Wintour and Richard Norton-Taylor, ‘‘No 10 Challenges Civilian Death Toll’’, Guard-
ian, 30 October 2004; and Iraq Body Count, hhttp://www.iraqbodycount.net/i, accessed
2 March 2006).
15. Kenneth Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq: Not a Humanitarian Intervention’’, Human Rights Watch
Report 2004, hhttp://hrw.org/wr2k4/3.htmi (accessed 15 June 2004), p. 6. It is note-
worthy in this respect that, writing a year after his New York Times article cited above,
Ignatieff recognized that ‘‘insincere intentions may prevent good consequences from oc-
curring. If the United States and the United Kingdom actually do not much care about
human rights in Iraq, then they are unlikely to do very much to improve them once they
occupy the country’’ (Ignatieff, ‘‘Human Rights, Power and the State’’, p. 68).
16. See Warren P. Strobel and John Walcott, ‘‘Post-war Planning Non-Existent’’, Knight
Ridder Newspapers, 13 July 2003, hhttp://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9927782.
htmi (accessed 2 March 2006); Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (London: Simon &
Schuster, 2004), pp. 114–115, 117–119, 207–208.
17. Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, p. 7.
18. For a fuller discussion of this problem focusing on the case of US intervention in Af-
ghanistan, see Nicholas J. Wheeler, ‘‘Dying for Enduring Freedom: Accepting Respon-
sibility for Civilian Casualties in the War on Terrorism’’, International Relations, Vol.
16, No. 2 (2002), pp. 205–225.
19. Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq: Saddam’s Tyranny and
America’s Mission (San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2003), p. 64.
20. Tony Blair, speech to the Labour Party Conference, 2 October 2001, hhttp://politics.
guardian.co.uk/labourconference2001/story/0,1220,561988,00.htmli (accessed 9 Febru-
ary 2006).
21. For a thoughtful assessment of the mixture of motivations driving Blair over Iraq, see
Christoph Bluth, ‘‘The British Road to War: Blair, Bush and the Decision to Invade
Iraq’’, International Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 5 (2004), pp. 871–893.
22. Ignatieff, ‘‘Human Rights, Power, and the State’’, p. 59.
23. Peter Stothard, Thirty Days: A Month at the Heart of Blair’s War (London: Harper-
Collins, 2003), p. 42.
24. Andrew Rawnsley, ‘‘The Damaging Questions Keep Coming’’, Observer, 14 September
2003; Nick Cohen, ‘‘No Sexing up, Please’’, Observer, 14 September 2003.
25. The Foreign Office’s Deputy Legal Adviser Elizabeth Wilmshurst left the Foreign Office
in March 2003 because she was unhappy with the legal basis of the government’s case.
THE IRAQ WAR AS A HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION 463
See Ewen MacAskill, ‘‘Adviser Quits Foreign Office over Legality of War’’, Guardian,
22 March 2003; John Kampfner, Blair’s Wars (London: Simon & Schuster, 2003), p. 304.
26. Lord Goldsmith tendered this advice to Blair on 7 March 2003 and it was finally made
public after intense scrutiny of the legal case for war by Parliament, lawyers and the me-
dia on 28 April 2005. Attorney General’s legal opinion tendered to the Prime Minister
on 7 March 2003, at hhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/28_04_05_attorney_
general.pdfi (accessed 12 November 2005).
27. Speech by Prime Minister at Labour’s local government, women’s and youth confer-
ence, SECC, Glasgow, 15 February 2003.
28. Tony Blair, speech on Iraq and the threat of international terrorism, Sedgefield, 5
March 2004, hhttp://politics.guardian.co.uk/speeches/story/0,11126,1162992,00.htmli (ac-
cessed 7 July 2004).
29. Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, pp. 3–4.
30. Gareth Evans, ‘‘When Is It Right to Fight? Legality, Legitimacy and the Use of Military
Force’’, 2004 Cyril Foster Lecture, Oxford University, 10 May 2004.
31. Ibid.
32. Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, pp. 3–4.
33. 2005 World Summit Outcome, UN Doc. A/60/L.1, p. 31.
34. Nicholas J. Wheeler, ‘‘A Victory for Common Humanity’’, Journal of International Law
and International Relations, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Winter 2005).
35. Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq’’; Evans, ‘‘When Is It Right to Fight?’’.
36. Roth, ‘‘War in Iraq’’, p. 1.
37. Rob Crilly, ‘‘Darfur ‘Sliding into Anarchy’ ’’, The Scotsman, 5 November 2005; Robert
I. Rotberg, ‘‘Why Wait on Darfur’’, Boston Globe, 24 October 2005.
38. Glenn Kessler and Colum Lynch, ‘‘U.S. Calls Killings in Sudan Genocide’’, Washington
Post, 10 September 2004.
39. See Alex J. Bellamy, ‘‘Responsibility to Protect or Trojan Horse? The Crisis in Darfur
and Humanitarian Intervention after Iraq’’, Ethics and International Affairs, Vol. 19,
No. 2 (Summer 2005), pp. 31–54.
40. This idea of ‘‘sovereignty as responsibility’’ received its most eloquent expression in the
2001 report The Responsibility to Protect by the International Commission on Interven-
tion and State Sovereignty, hhttp://www.iciss.ca/report-en.aspi (accessed 9 February
2006).
41. Bellamy, ‘‘Responsibility to Protect or Trojan Horse?’’
28
The responsibility to protect and
the war on Saddam Hussein
Ramesh Thakur
464
THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT 465
and, in the real world, policy choices will always be made on a case-by-
case basis. With that in mind, R2P seeks to identify those conscience-
shocking situations in which the case for international intervention is
compelling and to enhance the prospects of such interventions. In turn,
this means that the circumstances have to be narrow, the bar for inter-
vention high and the procedural and operational safeguards tight, be-
cause the probability of international consensus is higher under condi-
tions of due process, due authority and due diligence.
The above was penned by Louis Bourquien in 1923 – plus ça change, plus
c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more they stay the
same).
The cynical deployment of moral arguments to justify imperialist ac-
tions in Iraq in 2003 has a direct structural counterpart in the British an-
nexation of the kingdom of Awadh (Oudh in its Anglicized version) in the
first half of the nineteenth century. The structure of justification makes
use of a specific set of techniques for the mobilization of democratic con-
sent and international support – through political representatives, the
press and the interested and attentive public – for decisions taken in pur-
suit of national interest by an élite group of policy makers. Tracing its
origins to John Locke and John Stuart Mill, Chatterjee locates it in the
paternalistic belief that people – and hence nations – who are morally
handicapped or in a state of moral infancy deserve a benevolent despot
who will protect and look after them.8
What is remarkable is how many of the same arguments, including the evangelical
fervour, the axiomatic assumption of the mantle of civilisation, the fig-leaf of le-
galism, the intelligence reports, the forgeries and subterfuges and the hard-
headed calculations of national interest, remain exactly the same at the beginning
of the 21st century.9
Sovereignty as responsibility
rests on the premise that one such context for the legitimate and neces-
sary use of armed force is large-scale humanitarian atrocities inside sov-
ereign territory by interposing international military contingents between
victims and perpetrators. But the will to wage war will weaken if force is
used recklessly, unwisely and prematurely. Ill-considered rhetoric about
pre-emptive strikes and about Iraq as an example of ‘‘humanitarian inter-
vention’’ risks draining support from R2P rather than adding to the legit-
imacy of such enterprises.
The world is changing, and changing fast, all around us. Calls for ‘‘hu-
manitarian intervention’’ could arise from any one or more of potential
flashpoints; humanitarian carnage could be triggered by any combination
of contingencies. The continuing tragedies of Liberia, Burundi, Sudan
and the Congo, and the potential tragedy in Myanmar, come readily to
mind. Human nature is fallible, leaders can be weak and corruptible,
and states can be frail and vulnerable to outbreaks of multiple and com-
plex humanitarian crises. Our ability and tools to act beyond our borders,
even in some of the most distant spots in the world, have increased tre-
mendously. This has produced a corresponding increase in demands and
expectations to do something.
An analogy with medicine is appropriate. Rapid advances in medical
technology have greatly expanded the range, accuracy and number of
medical interventions. With enhanced capacity and increased tools have
come more choices that have to be made, often with accompanying phil-
osophical, ethical, political and legal dilemmas. The idea of simply stand-
ing by and letting nature take its course has become less and less accept-
able, to the point where in many countries today parents who refuse all
available treatment for their children can be held criminally culpable for
failure to exercise due diligence.
Similarly, calls for military intervention happen. Living in a fantasy
world is a luxury we cannot afford. In the real world today, the brutal
truth is that our choice is not between intervention and non-intervention.
Rather, our choice is between ad hoc or rules-based, unilateral or multi-
lateral, and consensual or deeply divisive intervention. If we are going to
get any sort of consensus in advance of crises requiring urgent responses,
including military intervention, the R2P principles point the way forward.
The president of the Security Council at the time of the Rwanda geno-
cide in the fateful month of April 1994, Ambassador Colin Keating of
New Zealand, has added his voice thus: ‘‘If the international community
is ever to be able to act effectively for human protection purposes, then it
must pay attention to the recommendations’’ of R2P.11
Establishing agreed principles to guide the use of force to protect civil-
ians under threat will make it more difficult, not less, to appropriate the
humanitarian label to self-serving interventions while simultaneously
478 RAMESH THAKUR
making the Security Council more responsive to the security needs of ci-
vilians. To interveners, R2P offers the prospect of more effective results.
For any international enforcement action to be efficient, it must be legiti-
mate; for it to be legitimate, it must be in conformity with international
law; for it to conform to international law, it must not be inconsistent
with the Charter of the United Nations. To potential targets of interven-
tion, R2P offers the option and comfort of a rules-based system, instead
of one based solely on might. The challenge is neither to deny the reality
of intervention nor to denounce it, but to manage it for the better, so that
human security is consolidated, the international system is strengthened
and all of us come out of it better, with our common humanity not dimin-
ished but enhanced.
Notes
479
480 SIMON CHESTERMAN
manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations’’. The only
exceptions to this broad prohibition are the ‘‘inherent right of individual
or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs’’4 and Security Coun-
cil authorized actions under Chapter VII of the Charter.5
A consequence of this new-found suspicion of war as a legitimate pur-
suit in human history is that states are now very reluctant to acknowledge
their position as occupying powers. Military occupation, however, is a
question of fact rather than intent. The 1907 Hague Regulations, for ex-
ample, provide that ‘‘[t]erritory is considered occupied when it is actually
placed under the authority of the hostile army’’.6 The Fourth Geneva
Convention of 1949 confirms that the provisions on occupation apply
‘‘even if the . . . occupation meets with no armed resistance’’.7 Whether a
state formally accepts the role of occupying power is therefore irrelevant
in determining whether the relevant occupation law obligations apply.
This has been the subject of longstanding disagreement, for example
with respect to Israel’s obligations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In
May 2003, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon stirred controversy when
he explicitly referred to Israel’s ‘‘occupation’’ of the Palestinian territo-
ries. Israel has long argued that the territories are, at best, ‘‘disputed’’
and Sharon later said, confusingly, that he used the word in relation to
the Palestinian people but not the territory.8 The International Court of
Justice and the Israeli High Court subsequently held that Israel was in-
deed an occupying power.9
The formal obligations on an occupying power are outlined in complex
provisions – at times reaching quite extraordinary detail – in the Hague
Regulations and the Fourth Geneva Convention. These obligations com-
prise responsibilities and constraints. The occupying power is entitled to
ensure the security of its forces, but is also required to ‘‘take all the mea-
sures in his power to restore, and ensure, as far as possible, public order
and [civil life], while respecting, unless absolutely prevented, the laws in
force in the country’’.10 In addition to other positive obligations, such as
ensuring public health and sanitation, as well as the provision of food and
medical supplies, the occupying power is prohibited from changing local
laws except as necessary for its own security and is limited in its capacity
to change state institutions.11
The underlying premise of occupation, then, is that it should be tempo-
rary. The elaborate provisions in occupation law recognize the need for
regulation of territory during the period of occupation to minimize the
adverse effects on the civilian population, but are inconsistent with occu-
pation for extended periods or for the purpose of transformation of that
territory.12 Occupation law thus provides little support for regime change.
As the commentary on the Geneva Conventions observes, attempts to
justify such change in the course of occupation are not new:
RELATIONS BETWEEN OCCUPYING POWERS AND THE UN 483
During the Second World War Occupying Powers intervened in the occupied
countries on numerous occasions and in a great variety of ways, depending on
the political aim pursued . . . Of course the Occupying Power usually tried to give
some colour of legality and independence to the new organizations, which were
formed in the majority of cases with the co-operation of certain elements among
the population of the occupied country, but it was obvious that they were in fact
always subservient to the will of the Occupying Power.13
of the UN Security Council. The next section considers the potential role
of the Council as an occupying power, and the following section considers
the ambiguous case of Iraq.
Thus, the Secretariat faces an unpleasant dilemma: to assume that transitional ad-
ministration is a transitory responsibility, not prepare for additional missions and
do badly if it is once again flung into the breach, or to prepare well and be asked to
undertake them more often because it is well prepared. Certainly, if the Secretariat
anticipates future transitional administrations as the rule rather than the exception,
then a dedicated and distinct responsibility centre for those tasks must be created
somewhere within the United Nations system. In the interim, DPKO [the Depart-
ment of Peacekeeping Operations] has to continue to support this function.26
This was not the subject of any recommendation and was not addressed
in the Secretary-General’s response to the Report.27
It seems probable, then, that any institutional reforms within the
United Nations will be incremental, driven by the exigencies of circum-
stance rather than institutional or doctrinal development. Though po-
litical resistance may prevent development of a policy or institutional
framework for future transitional administrations in theory, it is unlikely
to prevent the demand for such operations in practice.
new laws.38 As the stated war aims in Iraq included regime change and
the transformation of Iraq into a ‘‘liberal democracy’’, Security Council
authorization provided a sounder basis for such activities.
Resolution 1483 (2003), adopted by the Council on 22 May 2003, was
an uncomfortable compromise that straddled this divide. The resolution
explicitly recognized that the United States and the United Kingdom –
the Coalition Provisional Authority – were occupying powers in Iraq and
called on them to comply with their obligations under the Geneva Con-
ventions and the Hague Regulations.39 Nevertheless, the resolution also
called upon the CPA ‘‘to promote the welfare of the Iraqi people through
the effective administration of the territory, including in particular work-
ing towards the restoration of conditions of security and stability and the
creation of conditions in which the Iraqi people can freely determine
their own political future’’.40 David Scheffer has described this blend of
Council powers and occupation law as ‘‘both unique and exceptionally
risky’’.41
The preamble of the resolution recognized ‘‘the specific authorities, re-
sponsibilities, and obligations under applicable international law of these
states as occupying powers under unified command (the ‘Authority’)’’
and noted that ‘‘other States that are not occupying powers are working
now or in the future may work under the Authority’’.42 This unusual pro-
vision implied that the United States and the United Kingdom were occu-
pying powers, but that other states could participate in reconstruction ef-
forts without taking on the responsibilities of occupiers themselves. As
indicated earlier, occupation is a question of fact rather than intent and
it is unclear whether this preambular reference was intended to supplant
the existing law. Acting under Chapter VII, the Council went on to call
upon ‘‘all concerned’’ to ‘‘comply fully with their obligations under inter-
national law including in particular the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and
the Hague Regulations of 1907’’.43
The contours of Iraq’s ‘‘political future’’ were adumbrated in the
Council’s support for ‘‘the formation, by the people of Iraq with the
help of the Authority and working with the [UN Secretary-General’s]
Special Representative, of an Iraqi interim administration as a transi-
tional administration run by Iraqis, until an internationally recognized,
representative government is established by the people of Iraq and as-
sumes the responsibilities of the Authority’’.44 Other obligations con-
cerned the establishment of a Development Fund for Iraq45 and the
transfer of responsibilities under the Oil-for-Food relief programme to
the CPA.46
The responsibilities of the United Nations in Iraq were ambiguous. Al-
though its role was repeatedly said to be ‘‘vital’’, the powers given to the
Special Representative were intentionally vague: these included ‘‘co-
490 SIMON CHESTERMAN
Conclusion
The Iraq wars of 1991 and 2003 bookend a period of unprecedented in-
ternational cooperation in the management of war and peace. Coming
soon after the conclusion of the Cold War, Operation Desert Storm,
which drove Iraq from Kuwait, was heralded by US President George
H. W. Bush as ushering in an era in which the rule of law would replace
the rule of the jungle. A newly activist Security Council outlined an ex-
panding agenda for itself and the United Nations. In its first 44 years the
RELATIONS BETWEEN OCCUPYING POWERS AND THE UN 491
being mere puppets of the United States. This had been the albatross
around the necks of the Iraqi Governing Council. At the same time, the
Oil-for-Food corruption scandal stiffened the spines of conservatives in
Washington who would rather see the United States fail in Iraq than
turn to the organization with the black helicopters for help.
There are no easy options now in Iraq. But there are dangerous signs
that expectations have been lowered to the point where the primary ob-
jective is to get US casualties out of the news as quickly as possible.
Handing power to a dysfunctional Iraqi government – ideally one whose
dysfunction can be blamed on the United Nations – has become the most
attractive option for Washington. It is unlikely to be received well in
Baghdad.
The United Nations itself faces more existential questions. The Iraq
war was a direct challenge to the organization’s role in maintaining inter-
national peace and security by the world’s most powerful state, prompt-
ing the Secretary-General to appoint a High-level Panel on Threats,
Challenges and Change to rethink the very idea of collective security in
a world where that state also feels itself to be the most vulnerable.54 At
the same time, the attack on the United Nations’ Baghdad compound on
19 August 2003 killed respected staff, prompting a scathing review of in-
ternal security procedures and a near-mutiny on the part of staff, who
pushed for a complete withdrawal from Iraq.55 Though it is too soon to
draw confident conclusions on this point, there will be more sustained de-
bates in the future concerning whether the United Nations should refuse
on principle to become involved in conflicts seen to be wars of choice by
the great powers of the day; these debates will turn in significant part on
whether the United Nations’ presence can be meaningful and indepen-
dent.
Underlying this is a larger question of what role the United Nations
can and should play in the structure of world order, a theme running
through much of this book. Does the United Nations exist in order to
play a leading role in maintaining peace and security, or to provide legit-
imacy for those who do? In this context, the history of military occupa-
tion provides a cautionary tale: institutions that are designed to legitimize
that which is otherwise illegal tend themselves to become discredited and
fall into disuse.
Where the United Nations is at its strongest is articulating the norma-
tive context within which collective action takes place and establishing
the conditions for necessary multilateral cooperation. An example
of such norm entrepreneurship may be the Secretary-General’s com-
ments on US abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison outside Baghdad at the
time the United States was seeking an extension of the immunity of its
peacekeeping troops from the International Criminal Court. His observa-
494 SIMON CHESTERMAN
Acknowledgements
Notes
1. It nevertheless had profound implications for the use of force. See the chapters by Ruth
Wedgwood, Charlotte Ku and David Krieger in the present volume.
2. UN Charter, preamble.
3. International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty, The Responsibility to
Protect (Ottawa: International Development Research Centre, December 2001), avail-
able at hhttp://www.iciss.gc.cai.
4. UN Charter, Art. 51.
5. See, generally, Ian Brownlie, International Law and the Use of Force by States (Oxford:
Clarendon Press, 1963).
6. Convention (IV) Respecting the Laws and Customs of War on Land and Its Annex:
Regulations Concerning the Laws and Customs of War on Land (1907 Hague Regula-
tions), done at The Hague, 18 October 1907, 36 Stat 2277, 1 Bevans 631, available at
hhttp://www.icrc.org/ihli, Article 42.
7. Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (Fourth Gen-
eva Convention), done at Geneva, 12 August 1949, available at hhttp://www.icrc.org/
ihli, Article 2. The right to resistance is a contested area of the law of military occupa-
tion. See Adam Roberts, ‘‘Prolonged Military Occupation: The Israeli-Occupied Ter-
ritories Since 1967’’, American Journal of International Law, Vol. 84 (1990). One im-
portant victory in the representation of the conflict in Iraq was the depiction by even
mainstream news media of armed resistance to the occupation as ‘‘terrorism’’.
8. Glenn Frankel, ‘‘Hopes for ‘Road Map’ Tempered by History; U.S. Role in Plan Seen
as Crucial’’, Washington Post, 3 June 2003.
9. Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory
RELATIONS BETWEEN OCCUPYING POWERS AND THE UN 495
the Role of the United Nations in Post-War Iraq (Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder
No. 1646, Washington, DC, 2003).
33. 1907 Hague Regulations, Articles 48, 49, 55.
34. Jackie Spinner, ‘‘Firms Cite Concerns with Iraqi Sanctions’’, Washington Post, 3 May
2003.
35. Peter J. Boyer, ‘‘The New War Machine’’, New Yorker, 30 June 2003, pp. 55, 70–71.
36. Peter Slevin and Dana Priest, ‘‘Wolfowitz Concedes Iraq Errors’’, Washington Post, 24
July 2003.
37. James Bone, ‘‘UN Leaders Draw up Secret Blueprint for Postwar Iraq’’, The Times
(London), 5 March 2003. Humanitarian contingency planning – some of which was
leaked in December 2002 – was less controversial and more advanced.
38. See above notes 11–12.
39. Resolution 1483, UN Doc. S/Res/1483 (2003), preamble and para. 5.
40. Ibid., para. 4. This was later confirmed in Resolution 1500 (2003), which also welcomed
the establishment of the Governing Council of Iraq.
41. Scheffer, ‘‘Beyond Occupation Law’’, p. 846.
42. Resolution 1483 (2003), preamble.
43. Ibid., para. 5.
44. Ibid., para. 9.
45. Ibid., paras 12–14, 17.
46. Ibid., para. 16.
47. Ibid., para. 8.
48. Ibid., para. 8.
49. Report of the Secretary-General Pursuant to Paragraph 24 of Security Council Resolution
1483 (2003), UN Doc. S/2003/715, 17 July 2003, paras 2 and 100.
50. See, for example, Robert F. Worth, ‘‘Last Respects Are Paid to Head of UN Mission in
Iraq’’, New York Times, 22 August 2003.
51. Resolution 1472, UN Doc. S/Res/1472 (2003). The preamble noted the obligation
imposed on an occupying power by the Fourth Geneva Convention to ensure ‘‘to the
fullest extent of the means available to it . . . the food and medical supplies of the popu-
lation’’.
52. See Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004).
53. ICISS, The Responsibility to Protect, para. 5.1.
54. See Chapter 28 in this volume.
55. See David M. Malone, ‘‘Nobody Said It Would Be Safe’’, International Herald Tribune,
1 October 2004.
56. Warren Hoge, ‘‘Annan Rebukes U.S. for Move to Give Its Troops Immunity’’, New
York Times, 17 June 2004.
30
‘‘Common enemies’’: The United
States, Israel and the world crisis
Tarak Barkawi
From the late 1940s, the Arab–Israeli conflict was woven into the fabric
of world politics, with consequences far beyond the Middle East itself.
The conflict’s wider effects are due not only to the significance of oil but
to the ways in which it is implicated in US domestic politics and foreign
policy as well as in conceptions of US identity. During the Cold War, and
in the wake of the Holocaust, moral and humanitarian concern coupled
with domestic political interests led to US support of Israel. But this sup-
port had to be balanced against good relations with Arab states, where
oil was to be found and where the threat of Soviet influence loomed.
From 1967, however, the United States and Israel, despite rocky mo-
ments, were drawn ever more closely into one another’s orbit. With the
advent of the ‘‘war on terror’’, the US–Israeli relationship has taken on
a new significance and is now a critical pivot determining events in the
Middle East and beyond.
To speak of a conflict as being part of the structure of world politics, as
a dynamic form of interconnection between and among Israel, Palesti-
nians, Arab states, US domestic politics, European economies and third
world debts fuelled by petro-dollars (to list only a few possibilities), is
not the normal way in which many analysts and commentators think
about conflict and world order. Typically, conflicts are viewed first and
foremost as ‘‘problems’’, as aberrations in the normal flow of relations
and as breakdowns of communication and interchange.
Perhaps because of its length and global reach, the Cold War occa-
sioned another kind of analysis. The US–Soviet confrontation was seen
497
498 TARAK BARKAWI
position to the enemy Other, then that national identity becomes in some
way dependent on the enemy. Enemy actions and pronouncements can
confirm or destabilize that identity.
An example is found in the Tet offensive of 1968. The United States
conceived its role in Viet Nam within terms that reflected its construction
of the Cold War. The world was seen as divided between two blocs – one
slave, one free. It went without question that the denizens of the free
world wanted to be free, so any ‘‘subversion’’ or resistance was inter-
preted as emanating from the Soviet bloc countries, infecting the free
world. Insurgencies were read as evidence of external attack. ‘‘What
Chairman Khrushchev describes as wars of liberation and popular upris-
ings’’, Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara remarked, ‘‘I prefer to
describe as subversion and covert aggression.’’3 This basic framing of
the Cold War – that the United States was assisting ‘‘free peoples’’ in de-
fending themselves against external attack – was already present in the
Truman Doctrine speech: ‘‘It must be the policy of the United States to
support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed
minorities or by outside pressures.’’4 As many have commented, this vi-
sion of the Cold War and of the United States’ role in it licensed overly
militarized responses to multifaceted conflicts in the third world, as in
Viet Nam.
As conventionally interpreted, the significance of the Tet offensive is
that it exposed as hollow the claims of steady US progress beforehand,
fatally undermining domestic support for continued involvement even
though the offensive itself failed at heavy cost to the Vietnamese commu-
nists. This is not, however, the whole story. Whatever its reality, Tet ap-
peared on television screens and in other media representations as a gen-
eral popular uprising against the Saigon regime and its US backers. It
was no longer possible for Americans to evade the fact that the Viet-
namese people were against the ‘‘freedom’’ the United States was offer-
ing. After Tet, the United States sought withdrawal rather than victory.
The initial framing of the conflict in Viet Nam, as one primarily about
‘‘communist subversion’’ from outside, not only led the United States to
adopt a heavily militarized and counterproductive strategy – one preg-
nant with the possibility of defeat – but also left core US identity con-
structions vulnerable in the eventuality of such a defeat. Precisely be-
cause of the heavy implication of US identity in its Viet Nam venture,
the defeat became a more general crisis of the US body politic. It chal-
lenged the identity relations and ideological constructs that had inspired
intervention in Indo-China in the first place. Was the United States on
the side of freedom or of oppression, its citizens asked?
In the years since 1975, the Americans have subsequently discovered
that really, despite all appearances and all those dead Vietnamese, they
500 TARAK BARKAWI
always were on the side of ‘‘the people’’ in Viet Nam. There has been a
sustained retelling and reinventing of the meaning of the Viet Nam war
in US political ideology and popular culture, turning it into something
Americans can take pride in.5 The neoconservative movement that ex-
erted such profound influence over the Bush administration in the wake
of the attacks of 11 September 2001 has its origins in this retelling of the
Viet Nam war. Several neoconservatives who became prominent fled the
Democratic Party during and after Viet Nam. They felt the Democrats
had lost the will to use force in the service of US values abroad. After
Viet Nam, two neoconservatives argue, ‘‘[t]he suspicion of American
power inherent in contemporary liberalism now became a reflexive oppo-
sition to the exercise of American power around the world’’.6 Because
US values are synonymous with liberty and freedom the world over, this
was a grave crime indeed. The solution was to narrate US involvement in
Viet Nam as a story in which the United States had tried to do the right
thing but had been thwarted by nefarious forces in the form of the anti-
war movement, the news media, liberals, Washington bureaucrats and
faint-hearted politicians. In this way, the verdict of Tet – that the United
States was not on the side of ‘‘the people’’ – was erased and the United
States reinstated as the defender of the oppressed everywhere, willing to
use its military power to liberate them.
This kind of imaginary work was crucial to re-empowering the milita-
rized US internationalism so evident in the ‘‘liberation’’ of Iraq. A strat-
egy to invade and liberate Iraq could appear appropriate and rational
only in a United States that had successfully rewritten the history of the
Viet Nam war. But this framing of Iraq – as a potentially ‘‘free people’’
oppressed by a tyrant – left both US strategists and ordinary Americans
unprepared to meet a popular resistance. As such, resistance to the
Americans was once again represented as the work of ‘‘armed minor-
ities’’, this time ‘‘Saddam loyalists’’ and ‘‘foreign terrorists’’. President
Bush remarked in October 2003 that ‘‘[w]e’re working hard with
freedom-loving Iraqis to help ferret these people out before they at-
tack’’.7 By definition, anyone opposing the United States cannot be a
‘‘freedom-loving Iraqi’’ because the United States stands for freedom. In-
deed, the Iraqi insurgents are now referred to as ‘‘anti-Iraqi forces’’ by
the US military. Elsewhere, President Bush described the resistance in
Iraq as comprising ‘‘killers’’ whose main goal – like that of the opponents
of the Viet Nam war – was to ‘‘cause America and our allies to flee our
responsibilities’’ for spreading freedom.8
This framing of the situation in Iraq, despite its resonances with US
élite and popular self-perception, is dysfunctional in strategic terms. The
implication is that the sources of resistance are to be found not in a
complex political, cultural and social context fuelled by totalitarianism,
conquest and occupation, but rather in an identifiable group of ‘‘cold-
THE UNITED STATES, ISRAEL AND THE WORLD CRISIS 501
gether by Netanyahu and others long before 9/11. Just before the first an-
niversary of that day, President Bush told some members of the US
House of Representatives: ‘‘The war on terrorism is going okay; we are
hunting down al Qaeda one-by-one . . . The biggest threat, however, is
Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction. He can blow up
Israel and that would trigger an international conflict.’’31
During the Reagan era, Israel was designated a major non-NATO ally
of the United States, and relations between the United States and Israel
were characterized by frequent dialogue and consultation, including the
establishment of a US–Israeli free trade area in 1985. An agreement to
intensify political, security and economic cooperation between the
United States and Israel in 1988 began by reaffirming ‘‘the close relation-
ship between the United States of America and Israel, based on common
goals, interests, and values’’.37 In April 1996, President Clinton and Prime
Minister Peres reaffirmed US–Israeli strategic cooperation, and signed a
US–Israel Counter-Terrorism Cooperation Accord, setting up a joint
task force to oversee the implementation of the agreement.38 The US
and Israeli militaries developed close relations, ranging from arms pro-
curement to trips for US service academy cadets to Israel.39
For present purposes, the hard facts about US–Israeli relations are less
important than the sentiments of affinity and emotional attachment of
which they are indicative. The effective evocation of sentiments of affinity
creates a bond, a sense of shared identity and purpose. Representations
of war and sacrifice can intensify these bonds, and in doing so they create
an imagined geography of conflict that informs policy in fundamental
ways. For example, consider the notion of the ‘‘Western allies’’ in World
War II and the associated tropes of liberation through war and conquest.
President Bush invoked these tropes to the graduating class of the US
Air Force Academy by quoting General Eisenhower’s message to the
troops who would invade Normandy: ‘‘The hopes and prayers of liberty-
loving people everywhere march with you.’’40 Bush was attempting to
link his war on terror with both World War II and the Cold War, likening
something called ‘‘the ideology of terror’’ to ‘‘the murderous ideologies
of the 20th century’’.41 The notion of an ‘‘ideology of terror’’ serves to
conflate the different reasons for which various groups take up arms
against Western values and interests. Much else is at work in these tropes
of the West and World War II. There is, for example, the curious disasso-
ciation of Nazi Germany from ‘‘the West’’. As Martin Lewis and Kären
Wigen observe, imagined geographies are vehicles ‘‘for displacing the
sins of Western civilization onto an intrusive non-European Other in our
THE UNITED STATES, ISRAEL AND THE WORLD CRISIS 509
midst’’.42 Germany returns to the West only after being schooled in de-
mocracy by the United States and its allies.
The sometimes expanding, sometimes contracting ‘‘West’’ was very
much in evidence in the invasion of Iraq. In US policy pronouncements
and in much US news commentary, the West was reduced to an Anglo-
American rump, with some assistance from Spain, for a time, and
Eastern Europe. Most of Western Europe was considered undeserving
of fully fledged membership in the West precisely because of its unwill-
ingness to engage in military action for purposes of liberating a ‘‘free
people’’. Robert Kagan’s very widely read and influential Paradise and
Power exemplifies this move.43 Israel, however, does much better in
these terms. ‘‘You’ve worked tirelessly to strengthen the ties that bind
our nations – our shared values, our strong commitment to freedom,’’
President Bush told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AI-
PAC) in May 2004, something very difficult to imagine him saying sin-
cerely in regard to France, for example.44
After 9/11, rather than seeing the Israeli occupation of the West Bank
and Gaza as an underlying cause of terrorism, Israel was viewed as an
allied republic under assault from the same enemy. In the immediate
aftermath of the strikes on New York and Washington, the number of
Americans who said their sympathies lay with the Israelis rather than
the Palestinians increased to 55 per cent from 41 per cent the previous
month.45 That the United States had been grievously wounded by this
same enemy was represented as creating a new bond between the United
States and Israel, one in which the United States had greater empathy
with Israel’s plight. In April 2002, as Israel was on the offensive in the
West Bank, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told a rally of US
supporters of Israel and Prime Minister Sharon that, ‘‘[s]ince September
11, we Americans have one thing more in common with Israelis. On that
day, America was attacked by suicide bombers. At that moment, every
American understood what it is like to live in Jerusalem or Netanya or
Haifa.’’46 Later that same month, the House Majority Whip Tom DeLay
told AIPAC that Israel should not give up ‘‘Judea’’ and ‘‘Samaria’’ and
described Israel as ‘‘the lone fountain of liberty’’ in the Middle East,
while referring to the Palestinian Authority as a ‘‘holding company for
terrorist subsidiaries’’.47 This ‘‘Israelization of America’’ was evident in
Bush’s speech to AIPAC in 2004 too.48 Invoking the purported common
experience of the United States and Israel, President Bush remarked
‘‘[w]e experienced the horror of being attacked in our homeland, on our
streets, and in places of work. And from that experience came an even
stronger determination, a fierce determination to defeat terrorism and to
eliminate the threat it poses to free people everywhere.’’49 This warmth
of feeling is reciprocated in Israel. Israelis, unlike people in nearly every
510 TARAK BARKAWI
other country around the world, backed the re-election of Bush over his
Democratic challenger in November 2004 by over two to one.50
That Israel and the United States face a ‘‘common enemy’’ begs the
question of who this enemy is. In Bush’s AIPAC speech he makes the
obligatory concession to reality that ‘‘not all terrorist networks answer
to the . . . same leaders’’ but then insists that ‘‘all terrorists burn with the
same hatred’’ of people who love freedom and that all terrorists kill with-
out shame or mercy, counting their victories in the number of dead inno-
cents.51 As with Netanyahu, the ‘‘terrorism is evil’’ line is not sufficient
on its own and so Bush goes on to list a number of instances of terrorist
attack, spread widely over time and space, that have only one thing in
common: the nominally Muslim identity of the perpetrators – nominal
because at least one case was the work of secular Palestinian nationalists.
Bush’s list includes Nicholas Berg, beheaded in Iraq; Daniel Pearl, killed
in Pakistan; Leon Klinghoffer, killed in the Mediterranean; and ‘‘blood
on the streets’’ of Jakarta, Jerusalem, Casablanca, Riyadh, Mombasa, Is-
tanbul, Bali, Baghdad and Madrid. ‘‘Every terrorist is at war with civili-
zation, and every group or nation that aids them is equally responsible
for the murders that the terrorists commit,’’ Bush concludes.52 Vice Pres-
ident Dick Cheney produced a similar list in October 2003, referring to a
‘‘global campaign’’ waged by a ‘‘terrorist network’’ ranging from Casa-
blanca to Bali.53
The degree to which al-Qaeda represents a tightly controlled hierarchy
or a looser network of more or less affiliated organizations, or both in dif-
ferent times and places, is open to dispute.54 Equally, the notion that var-
ious resistance organizations might draw from a similar pool of personnel
as well as financial and ideological resources can also be debated. But
Bush and Cheney offer expansive views of a common enemy, in ways
strongly reminiscent of Cold War representations of a unitary communist
threat. On their account, ‘‘civilization’’, of which the Anglo-American–
Israeli rump is the main defender, is at war with what they see as a wide-
spread pathology of Islam. To arrive at this vision, they must erase the
differences between, for example, the despair of long-term occupation
and desire for revenge that inspire many Palestinian suicide bombers;
Jemaah Islamiya’s strike in Bali in October 2002; and Moro resistance in
the Philippines, which has been under way in one form or another since
the Spanish arrived in the sixteenth century. Strategically speaking, it
would seem to be in US interests to disarticulate these various conflicts
by addressing their direct sources, including past and present US policies.
However, in terms of US identity, it is precisely the expansive vision of
civilization’s enemy that resonates.
There is some slippage and mobility in the notion of what ‘‘civiliza-
tion’’ is being defended. Is it ‘‘the West’’? It is notable that, in Rostow’s
THE UNITED STATES, ISRAEL AND THE WORLD CRISIS 511
chatological account of the war on terror and the nature of the insur-
gency in Iraq than Boykin. But Boykin’s vision is far more compatible
with US identity as the defender of ‘‘free peoples’’ under attack from
‘‘armed minorities’’ who must be found, fixed and destroyed. The ten-
dency at all levels, from the US military to the US public, will be to see
policies and strategies that fit with this identity as more rational and ap-
propriate. As a senior British army officer remarked of US soldiers in
Iraq, ‘‘[they] view things in very simplistic terms. It seems hard for them
to reconcile the subtleties between who supports what and who doesn’t in
Iraq. It’s easier for their soldiers to group all Iraqis as the bad guys. As
far as they are concerned Iraq is bandit country and everybody is out to
kill them.’’61
The US/Israeli vision of the enemy is a recipe for continued escalation
of the war on terror, in ways that increasingly take on the form of a clash
of civilizations. Neoconservative ideologues eagerly seize on this possibil-
ity. Daniel Pipes, whom President Bush has appointed to the board of the
US Institute of Peace, speaks of a long-term conflict between the West
and militant Islam. Like Bush, he sees Islamism as a ‘‘totalitarian move-
ment that has much in common with fascism and Marxism-Leninism’’.62
Such claims are now commonplace in US political discourse. But Pipes’
‘‘West’’ is not what it seems at first take: ‘‘The Europeans, with their low
birth rates, have brought in immigrants from Islamic countries. Indicators
suggest that Europe is gradually becoming part of the Muslim world.’’ He
sees Christianity and Islam on a collision course, competing for converts
and territory: ‘‘The main centers of Christian vigor are now in Africa,
Latin America and Asia.’’63
This language of religiosity and conversion is at odds with standard
accounts of a secular and rational Western modernity. Gray argues that,
unlike the United States, Western Europe is ‘‘post-Enlightenment’’ in
that it has largely given up on the idea of a ‘‘universal civilization’’, as
well as the armed imposition of this civilization on ‘‘natives’’. The United
States, in the view of Gray and others, is diverging from Europe across a
range of indicators. Not only do more Americans go to church, but their
Protestantism is the most fundamentalist in Christendom. ‘‘Just under 70
per cent of Americans believe in the devil, compared with a third of the
British, a fifth of the French and an eighth of the Swedes . . . America’s
secular traditions are weaker than Turkey’s.’’64
One of the key confusions in Samuel Huntington’s thesis of a clash of
civilizations is the notion that conflicts of belief among different civiliza-
tions can lead to war. War and conflict are in fact opportunities for voices
within communities to redefine and refashion dominant identities. Such is
the case in the war on terror, for the United States, for Islam and for the
West. Whereas much commentary has focused on the diplomatic tensions
THE UNITED STATES, ISRAEL AND THE WORLD CRISIS 513
between Europe and the United States over Iraq, less attention has been
paid to the kind of increasingly fundamental divergence – across a range
of social, cultural and political dimensions – that Gray identifies. The war
on terror is both an example and an agent of this divergence. For many
Europeans, terror is a problem to be managed, something they have lived
with, something that is not eradicable, and something to which the pri-
mary response should be increased policing and intelligence. For Ameri-
cans, terror is an evil against which a crusade must be waged. In this they
have in part taken their cue, their language with which to conceive the
enemy, from a certain strand of Israeli thinking. The tragedy in the mak-
ing is that the battlegrounds of the war on terror will come increasingly to
resemble those in Israel–Palestine. ‘‘Close your eyes for a moment, and
you can imagine that the [US] Marines in Karbala are Golani infantry in
Tul Karm.’’65 Iraqi imaginations need little prompting: they already refer
to US soldiers in Iraq as ‘‘Jews’’.66
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Brian Job and the participants in the United Nations Univer-
sity and International Peace Academy workshop on ‘‘Iraq and World Or-
der: Structural and Normative Challenges’’ for comments on earlier ver-
sions of this chapter. It draws in part on previously published work. See
Tarak Barkawi, ‘‘Globalization, Culture and War: On the Popular Medi-
ation of ‘Small Wars’ ’’, Cultural Critique, No. 58 (Autumn 2004); ‘‘On
the Pedagogy of ‘Small Wars’ ’’, International Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 1 (Jan-
uary 2004); and Globalization and War (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield,
2005).
Notes
1. David Campbell, Writing Security: United States Foreign Policy and the Politics of Iden-
tity (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1992).
2. See Tarak Barkawi, ‘‘Strategy as a Vocation: Weber, Morgenthau and Modern Strategic
Studies’’, Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 2 (April 1998).
3. Quoted in Michael McClintock, Instruments of Statecraft: US Guerrilla Warfare,
Counter-Insurgency, Counter-Terrorism, 1940–1990 (New York: Pantheon, 1992), p. 174.
4. Quoted in John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar
American National Security Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 64–65.
5. See, for example, Susan Jeffords, The Remasculinization of America: Gender and the
Vietnam War (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1989).
6. Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq: Saddam’s Tyranny and
America’s Mission (San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2003), p. 57.
514 TARAK BARKAWI
7. Quoted in Brian Knowlton, ‘‘US to ‘Stay the Course’ in Iraq’’, International Herald
Tribune, 28 October 2003, p. 1.
8. ‘‘President’s Radio Address’’, 1 November 2003, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/
releases/2003/11/print/20031101.htmli (accessed 3 November 2003).
9. Ibid.
10. Benjamin Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism: How Democracies Can Defeat Domestic and
International Terrorists (New York: Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 1995).
11. Ibid., p. 3.
12. Ibid., pp. 82–83.
13. Ibid., p. 75.
14. See, for example, ibid., pp. 60, 62, 85.
15. Ibid., p. 87; emphases in the original.
16. See, for example, Stefan Halper and Jonathan Clarke, America Alone: The Neo-
conservatives and the Global Order (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
17. Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism, p. 21.
18. Ibid., pp. 21–22. The irony of condemning Muslim violence via the Papacy – which
licensed the Crusades – does not seem to have occurred to Netanyahu.
19. Ibid., p. 21.
20. E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years’ Crisis 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of Inter-
national Relations (London: Macmillan, 1946), pp. 51–53.
21. Victor Davis Hanson, Carnage and Culture (New York: Anchor Books, 2002), p. 97.
22. Halper and Clarke, America Alone.
23. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America’s War on Terror (New York:
Free Press, 2004), p. 30.
24. Ibid., pp. 30–31.
25. See, for example, Richard Perle, ‘‘Iraq: Saddam Unbound’’, in Robert Kagan and
William Kristol, eds, Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and
Defense Policy (San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2000).
26. Kaplan and Kristol, The War over Iraq.
27. Ibid., pp. 65–67, 115–118.
28. Quoted in ibid., p. 100.
29. On the role of US policy in creating al-Qaeda, see Gabriel Kolko, Another Century of
War? (New York: The New Press, 2002); and Mahmood Mamdani, Good Muslim, Bad
Muslim: America, the Cold War and the Roots of Terror (New York: Pantheon Books,
2004).
30. Project for the New American Century, ‘‘Letter to President Bush on Israel, Ara-
fat and the War on Terrorism’’, 3 April 2002, hhttp://www.newamericancentury.org/
Bushletter-040302.htmi (accessed 17 May 2004).
31. Quoted in Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004),
p. 186.
32. Quoted in Bernard Reich, The United States and Israel: Influence in the Special Relation-
ship (New York: Praeger, 1984), p. 190.
33. Quoted in Dana H. Allin and Steven Simon, ‘‘The Moral Psychology of US Support for
Israel’’, Survival, Vol. 45, No. 3 (Autumn 2003), p. 130.
34. Ibid., p. 131.
35. Quoted in Reich, The United States and Israel, pp. 178–179.
36. Both quoted in ibid., p. 179.
37. ‘‘Memorandum of Agreement between the United States and the State of Israel Re-
garding Joint Political, Security, and Economic Cooperation’’, JINSA Online, 21 April
1988, hhttp://www.jinsa.org/articles/view.html?documentid=182i (accessed 17 May
2004).
THE UNITED STATES, ISRAEL AND THE WORLD CRISIS 515
38. ‘‘U.S.-Israel Joint Statement on Strategic Cooperation’’, JINSA Online, 30 April 1996,
hhttp://www.jinsa.org/articles/view.html?documentid=184i (accessed 17 May 2004).
39. Jason Vest, ‘‘The Men from JINSA and CSP’’, The Nation, 2 September 2002, hhttp://
www.thenation.com/doc/20020902/vesti (accessed 18 May 2004).
40. Quoted in ‘‘Remarks by the President at the United States Air Force Academy
Graduation Ceremony’’, 2 June 2004, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/
06/20040602.htmli (accessed 3 June 2004).
41. Ibid.
42. Martin Lewis and Kären Wigen, The Myth of Continents: A Critique of Metageography
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997), p. 68.
43. Robert Kagan, Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order (Lon-
don: Atlantic Books, 2003).
44. ‘‘Remarks by the President to American Israel Public Affairs Committee’’, 18 May
2004, hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/05/20040518-1.htmli (accessed 18
May 2004).
45. The Gallup Organization, ‘‘Americans Show Increased Support for Israel Following
Terrorist Attacks’’, 19 September 2001, hhttp://poll.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci
=4915&pg=1i (accessed 10 February 2006).
46. Quoted in NewsMax.com Wires (UPI), ‘‘Hard-line Israeli Supporters Boo Wolfowitz’’,
16 April 2002, hhttp://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/4/15/204626.shtmli (ac-
cessed 17 May 2004).
47. Quoted in Barbara Slavin, ‘‘Don’t Give up 1967 Lands, DeLay Tells Israel Lobby’’,
USA Today, 23 April 2002, hhttp://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2002/04/24/aipac.
htmi (accessed 18 May 2004).
48. Gideon Samet titled one of his columns in Haaretz ‘‘The Israelization of America’’,
4 April 2003, hhttp://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?
itemNo=280488i (accessed 18 May 2004).
49. ‘‘Remarks by the President to American Israel Public Affairs Committee’’.
50. Alan Travis, ‘‘We Like Americans, We Don’t Like Bush’’, Guardian, 15 October 2004,
p. 4.
51. ‘‘Remarks by the President to American Israel Public Affairs Committee’’.
52. Ibid.
53. ‘‘Remarks by the Vice President to the Heritage Foundation’’, 10 October 2003, hhttp://
new.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/DickCheneySpeech.cfmi (accessed 10 February
2006).
54. See, for example, Jason Burke, Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror (London: I. B.
Tauris, 2003); Mark Duffield, ‘‘War as a Network Enterprise: The New Security Terrain
and Its Implications’’, Cultural Values, Vol. 6, Nos 1 & 2 (2002), pp. 153–165.
55. ‘‘President Condemns Terrorist Act’’, Statement by the President, 4 October 2003,
hhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/10/20031004-1.htmli (accessed 17 May
2004).
56. Quoted in Amir Oren, ‘‘Facing the Common Enemy’’, Haaretz, 30 July 2002,
hhttp://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=192149&contrassID=2
&subContrassID=4&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Yi (accessed 17 May 2004).
57. John Gray, False Dawn: The Delusions of Global Capitalism (London: Granta Books,
2002), pp. 128–130.
58. Seymour Hersh, ‘‘Moving Targets’’, The New Yorker, 8 December 2003.
59. Sean Rayment, ‘‘US Tactics Condemned by British Officers’’, Daily Telegraph, 11 April
2004.
60. Quoted in Hersh, ‘‘Moving Targets’’, p. 4.
61. Quoted in Rayment, ‘‘US Tactics Condemned by British Officers’’.
516 TARAK BARKAWI
62. Quoted in Manfred Gerstenfeld, ‘‘The End of American Jewry’s Golden Era: An
Interview with Daniel Pipes’’, Campus Watch in the Media, 2 May 2004, hhttp://
www.campus-watch.org/article/id/1138i (accessed 15 May 2004).
63. Ibid.
64. Gray, False Dawn, p. 126.
65. Samet, ‘‘The Israelization of America’’. The Golani Infantry Brigade is an élite Israeli
unit and Tul Karm is a city and refugee camp on the West Bank.
66. Thomas Friedman, ‘‘Jews, Israel and America’’, International Herald Tribune, 25 Octo-
ber 2004, p. 8.
Part VI
Conclusion
31
Structural and normative challenges
James Cockayne and Cyrus Samii
Introduction
The Iraq crisis, which climaxed in the US-led invasion of 20 March 2003,
was by many reckonings evidence of a disintegration of the existing UN-
centred world order. This world order is the product of the formal insti-
tutions centred on the United Nations and the norms and perceptions
undergirding those institutions. Seen another way, it is the product of
the distribution of power enshrined in UN institutions and the actual dis-
tribution of capabilities supposedly justifying those institutional arrange-
ments. Basic elements of this order have been challenged by the crisis
over Iraq. The prohibition of aggression has been tested by the doctrine
of preventive military action. The international norm of state sovereignty
has been brought into question by efforts directed against the prolifera-
tion of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), non-state actors’ militancy
and human rights violations. The apparent incapacity of the United Na-
tions either to prevent or to manage the Iraq crisis raised questions about
519
520 JAMES COCKAYNE AND CYRUS SAMII
Structural challenges
Current structural challenges arise from a number of sources.8 One
source is the disconnect between, on the one hand, US preponderance
and the emergence of new powers and, on the other hand, the anachro-
nistic distribution of institutional power within the UN Security Council.
Another source is the ‘‘Westphalian myth’’ underpinning the formal sov-
ereign equality of states upheld in institutions such as the UN General
Assembly, and the extreme empirical variation in capabilities of states.
These longstanding and increasing structural disconnects have set the
stage for more immediate challenges to the centrality of the United Na-
tions. The structural disconnects amplified the sense of disequilibrium
triggered by the US decision to take military action against Iraq in 2003
without renewed Security Council authorization.
522 JAMES COCKAYNE AND CYRUS SAMII
Contributors to this volume seem to agree that the United States cannot
and does not pursue its security objectives alone, and that it must call on
the assistance of coalitions of other actors. Since there is a small group of
Northern states on which it calls most regularly, the resulting system
could be characterized as one of ‘‘uni-multipolarity’’9 or a ‘‘unipolar con-
cert’’.10 This view is presented as a corrective to the simplistic, although
often expressed, notion of the United States as an omnipotent hegemon.
The concert may best be understood as congruent with the G-8 or, after
its possible expansion, the G-10 (since the G-10 would include all of the
permanent five (P-5) members of the UN Security Council plus Japan,
Germany, Italy, Canada and India). The unipolar concert is not quite
identical with the Security Council, and serves as an alternative centre
of international security decision-making.
As a unipolar power, the United States has the ability to vary the
membership of the supporting cast on an issue-by-issue basis – the idea
of ‘‘coalitions of the willing’’. The Iraq crisis revealed that the UN Secu-
rity Council might be just one potential coalition among many for Wash-
ington. The United States is likely to use the Security Council only when
its legitimizing currency for some specific task far outweighs the conse-
quential procedural and political constraints, making it more appealing
than other coalitions. In such circumstances, the primacy of the Security
Council and the image of a UN-centred world order are illusory. On top
STRUCTURAL AND NORMATIVE CHALLENGES 523
Normative challenges
The Iraq crisis is only the most recent crisis provoking consideration of
the disconnect between responses to contemporary threats and the norms
enshrined by UN institutions.28 The Kosovo Commission, for example,
reflected much contemporaneous commentary in its assessment of
NATO’s 1999 Kosovo intervention as ‘‘illegal but legitimate’’.29 In this
volume, three interpretations of the US-led intervention in Iraq have
been presented. Ruth Wedgwood (Chapter 25) proposes that the inva-
sion was legal, through authorization by Security Council Resolutions
678, 687 and 1441, and legitimate, on the basis of security and humanitar-
ian imperatives. David Krieger (Chapter 23) disagrees, arguing that the
invasion was unlawful for not having garnered explicit Security Council
authorization, and illegitimate on the basis of norms of non-aggression
and the unsupportability of the claims of a threat. Charlotte Ku (Chapter
24) explores the implications of a hybrid view: that the intervention was
unlawful but perhaps legitimate.
Although the debate related to legality is likely to continue, a number
of possible dangers are associated with a legality/legitimacy gap.30 Ac-
528 JAMES COCKAYNE AND CYRUS SAMII
then the norm has been decoupled from the two powers that are most ca-
pable of enforcing it.
Alternative visions
have opened within the United Nations over Iraq – a transatlantic divide
resulting from deep normative differences. To the extent that European
leaders were trying to manage the interests of their publics, as discussed
above, these leaders were constrained by a principled opposition to the
Iraq war that predominated throughout much of the continent. Martinez
proposes that, perhaps as a result of differences in media coverage on ei-
ther side of the Atlantic, Europeans on the whole exhibited more sensi-
tivity than Americans to the humanitarian tragedy that had been unfold-
ing in Iraq since the initiation of UN sanctions in the 1990s. Martinez
argues further that this sensitivity to the humanitarian toll and the devas-
tation of the country made it hard to imagine that the Iraqi regime could
be a threat, but made it easy to imagine that the regime was being se-
lected as an easy target. Martinez also argues that Europeans have
learned from the colonial experience that dominance is fleeting. What-
ever its causes, a divide in the transatlantic community has implications
for UN-centred world order that are significant, given that the members
of the transatlantic community (perhaps extended to include Japan) pro-
vide the bulk of the United Nations’ resources.
Notes
ment: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals (London: Earth-
scan, 2005).
23. In Larger Freedom: Towards Security, Development and Human Rights for All. Report of
the Secretary-General, UN Doc. A/59/2005 (New York: United Nations, 2005).
24. The one exception might be with respect to peacebuilding.
25. One option might be for such legislative resolutions to first be debated in or even ap-
proved by the General Assembly.
26. See Chapter 1 in Sidhu and Thakur, eds, Arms Control after Iraq.
27. See Chapter 4.
28. See Chapter 24 for further discussion of this point.
29. Independent International Commission on Kosovo, The Kosovo Report: Conflict, Inter-
national Response, Lessons Learned (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).
30. The 2005 UN World Summit Outcome document affirmed that ‘‘the relevant provisions
of the Charter are sufficient to address the full range of threats to international peace
and security’’ (para. 79). In other words, no new international consensus was reached
on the legal interpretation of the United States’ invasion of Iraq.
31. See Chapter 29.
32. Chapter 9, p. 170 in the present volume.
33. See the conclusions in the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United
States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, Report to the President of the United
States, March 31, 2005 (Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office,
2005).
34. Refer to Chapter 28 for background on the international project initiated by the Inter-
national Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty to garner commitment to a
normative doctrine of ‘‘the responsibility to protect’’.
35. Chapter 15, pp. 252–253 in the present volume.
36. Wheeler and Morris in Chapter 27.
37. Thomas Friedman, ‘‘Under the Arab Street’’, New York Times, 23 October 2002, p. A23.
38. Such was the nature of the indictment of the United Nations made by Osama bin Laden
in his address broadcast on Al Jazeera on 3 November 2001 in the wake of the invasion
of Afghanistan.
39. Chapter 23, p. 393 in the present volume.
40. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s Address to the 57th Session of the UN General
Assembly, New York, 23 September 2003. United Nations Press Release SG/SM/8891,
GA/10157, 24 September 2003.
41. Michael Barnett and Martha Finnemore, Rules for the World: International Organiza-
tions and World Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004).
Index
Advertising Democracy
anti-war movement 86 consociational democracy in Lebanon,
Afghanistan see Lebanon
elections 128 ‘‘domino effect’’ 420
NATO peacebuilding in 333 NATO promotion of 335–337
Turkish involvement in reconstruction transition to in Iraq, see Iraq
128
United Kingdom and 226 E-mail networks
al-Qaeda and global movement against Iraq war
financial sanctions and travel restrictions 79
on 209 Egypt
Arab League challenges to UN role 178–182
reactions to Iraq war 189–192 Afghanistan conflict and 180
Egyptian analysts on 178–179
Beslan school attacks 209–210 future of world governance and
179–180
Chile, see Latin America viability and effectiveness of United
Concert of the North Atlantic 51 Nations 179
cavalier use of power by 52 demise of Arab order 182–183
Counter-Terrorism Committee lack of alternatives to US military
establishment of 209 action 182
role 209 Egyptian state strategies 183–185
Crisis management arrest of political activists 184
NATO and 337–338 call for Arab summit 184
protests against US action in Iraq
Darfur 183–184
international community failure in 158 and Iraq war 175–186
Debellatio, doctrine of 183 balancing act of Egyptian regime 181
535
536 INDEX
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