SUPPLEMENTAL FILE: ADDITIONAL LOGITS, ARREST IN

YEAR PRIOR TO SMOKING TRANSITION.

. * males
. mlogit smokedif10_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_21 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2288.853

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2174.4273
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2171.1979
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2171.1937
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2171.1937

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,921

LR chi2(18) = 235.32
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2171.1937 Pseudo R2 = 0.0514

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif10_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.204923 .1894165 1.19 0.236 .8854181 1.639721
3 | 1.200548 .1904535 1.15 0.249 .8797229 1.638374
|
1.arrested_21 | 1.780975 .4564212 2.25 0.024 1.077743 2.943069
|
colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 | 1.150468 .440759 0.37 0.714 .5429604 2.437703
3 1 | .8190391 .3797594 -0.43 0.667 .3300902 2.032247
|
arpre18 | 1.33816 .1790266 2.18 0.029 1.029507 1.739348
smokepre18 | 3.482653 .4199285 10.35 0.000 2.749633 4.411088
family_cat | 1.007385 .1206929 0.06 0.951 .7965527 1.27402
usborn | 1.225618 .3767019 0.66 0.508 .6710156 2.238606
_cons | .0698309 .0231461 -8.03 0.000 .0364678 .1337169
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.031999 .1545656 0.21 0.833 .7694708 1.384096
3 | 1.026588 .1587557 0.17 0.865 .7581632 1.390046
|
1.arrested_21 | 1.657141 .4198102 1.99 0.046 1.008605 2.722687
|
colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 | .8048084 .3249927 -0.54 0.591 .364725 1.775904
3 1 | 1.033122 .4643902 0.07 0.942 .4280902 2.493264
|
arpre18 | 1.081601 .1469101 0.58 0.564 .8288031 1.411506
smokepre18 | 2.695245 .3107705 8.60 0.000 2.150067 3.378661
family_cat | .7737105 .0891508 -2.23 0.026 .6173036 .9697465
usborn | .8445958 .2213082 -0.64 0.519 .5053704 1.411523
_cons | .1624871 .0461349 -6.40 0.000 .0931402 .2834656
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

1
. margins colrace##arrested_21

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,921

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .125272 .0081672 15.34 0.000 .1092645
.1412795
1 2 | .1486836 .0138439 10.74 0.000 .1215502
.1758171
1 3 | .1418985 .0142628 9.95 0.000 .1139439
.1698531
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
1 0 | .1282024 .0064452 19.89 0.000 .1155701
.1408347
1 1 | .1871127 .0228297 8.20 0.000 .1423674
.231858
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
1 1 0 | .1197267 .0083867 14.28 0.000 .1032891
.1361642
1 1 1 | .1746317 .0317638 5.50 0.000 .1123757
.2368876
1 2 0 | .1392261 .0146643 9.49 0.000 .1104847
.1679676
1 2 1 | .2318531 .041809 5.55 0.000 .149909
.3137972
1 3 0 | .1389271 .0149972 9.26 0.000 .109533
.1683212
1 3 1 | .1700984 .0472523 3.60 0.000 .0774856
.2627112
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7300346 .0109359 66.76 0.000 .7086006
.7514686
2 2 | .7108423 .0171248 41.51 0.000 .6772784
.7444062
2 3 | .7130277 .0180531 39.50 0.000 .6776443
.7484111
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
2 0 | .7320314 .0083685 87.47 0.000 .7156294
.7484333
2 1 | .6284219 .0294171 21.36 0.000 .5707655
.6860784
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 0 | .7404018 .0113229 65.39 0.000 .7182093
.7625943
2 1 1 | .633659 .0423073 14.98 0.000 .5507383
.7165797

2
 2 2 0 | .7211405 .0182297 39.56 0.000 .685411
.7568701
2 2 1 | .6149743 .0486549 12.64 0.000 .5196125
.7103361
2 3 0 | .7219747 .0189423 38.11 0.000 .6848484
.759101
2 3 1 | .628476 .0628689 10.00 0.000 .5052553
.7516967
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1446934 .0089619 16.15 0.000 .1271284
.1622584
3 2 | .140474 .0134084 10.48 0.000 .114194
.1667541
3 3 | .1450738 .0144396 10.05 0.000 .1167726
.1733749
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
3 0 | .1397662 .0067146 20.82 0.000 .1266059
.1529265
3 1 | .1844653 .0238513 7.73 0.000 .1377176
.2312131
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
3 1 0 | .1398716 .0092238 15.16 0.000 .1217931
.15795
3 1 1 | .1917093 .0347119 5.52 0.000 .1236752
.2597434
3 2 0 | .1396333 .0143295 9.74 0.000 .111548
.1677186
3 2 1 | .1531726 .0358525 4.27 0.000 .082903
.2234422
3 3 0 | .1390982 .0149988 9.27 0.000 .1097011
.1684954
3 3 1 | .2014256 .0526764 3.82 0.000 .0981817
.3046695
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif11_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_22 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2169.214

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2067.3163
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2062.7797
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2062.7754
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2062.7754

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,861

LR chi2(18) = 212.88
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2062.7754 Pseudo R2 = 0.0491

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif11_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.139927 .180241 0.83 0.408 .8361574 1.554053
3 | 1.025171 .1649244 0.15 0.877 .7479266 1.405184
|

3
 1.arrested_22 | 1.409111 .3973023 1.22 0.224 .810862 2.448745
|
colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 | 1.549693 .6636005 1.02 0.306 .6694975 3.587089
3 1 | 1.819444 .9355724 1.16 0.244 .6641165 4.984633
|
arpre18 | 1.202271 .1694884 1.31 0.191 .912022 1.58489
smokepre18 | 3.316276 .4027708 9.87 0.000 2.613785 4.207571
family_cat | 1.140781 .1387365 1.08 0.279 .898841 1.447843
usborn | .8193022 .2275434 -0.72 0.473 .4753805 1.412039
_cons | .1026098 .0311469 -7.50 0.000 .056599 .1860237
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.082235 .1753366 0.49 0.626 .7877994 1.486715
3 | 1.373921 .2110871 2.07 0.039 1.016681 1.856689
|
1.arrested_22 | 2.260088 .5695656 3.24 0.001 1.379157 3.70371
|
colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 | 1.152176 .4642181 0.35 0.725 .5230761 2.537889
3 1 | 1.783918 .7810967 1.32 0.186 .7562625 4.208016
|
arpre18 | 1.471051 .2023472 2.81 0.005 1.123421 1.926251
smokepre18 | 2.222594 .2677872 6.63 0.000 1.755109 2.814599
family_cat | 1.027513 .1243622 0.22 0.823 .8105212 1.302597
usborn | 1.280144 .3773421 0.84 0.402 .7183802 2.281201
_cons | .0756854 .0241233 -8.10 0.000 .0405235 .1413568
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_22

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,861

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .12658 .0082917 15.27 0.000 .1103286
.1428313
1 2 | .1446061 .0142851 10.12 0.000 .1166078
.1726045
1 3 | .1266918 .0136527 9.28 0.000 .099933
.1534506
|
_predict#arrested_22 |
1 0 | .1273328 .00644 19.77 0.000 .1147107
.1399549
1 1 | .1687778 .0237533 7.11 0.000 .1222223
.2153333
|

4
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
1 1 0 | .1250965 .0085972 14.55 0.000 .1082464
.1419466
1 1 1 | .1441707 .0309344 4.66 0.000 .0835403
.204801
1 2 0 | .1381467 .0149725 9.23 0.000 .1088012
.1674922
1 2 1 | .2149353 .04611 4.66 0.000 .1245613
.3053093
1 3 0 | .1218746 .0139131 8.76 0.000 .0946054
.1491438
1 3 1 | .182747 .0555827 3.29 0.001 .073807
.291687
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7521652 .0106972 70.31 0.000 .731199
.7731313
2 2 | .7281404 .0173758 41.91 0.000 .6940844
.7621964
2 3 | .7085967 .0181475 39.05 0.000 .6730283
.7441651
|
_predict#arrested_22 |
2 0 | .7513625 .0082476 91.10 0.000 .7351976
.7675275
2 1 | .5871536 .0317828 18.47 0.000 .5248605
.6494468
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 0 | .7621995 .0110166 69.19 0.000 .7406072
.7837917
2 1 1 | .6458774 .043531 14.84 0.000 .5605583
.7311965
2 2 0 | .7434839 .0182759 40.68 0.000 .7076638
.7793039
2 2 1 | .562216 .0553535 10.16 0.000 .4537251
.6707069
2 3 0 | .7307288 .0187055 39.06 0.000 .6940668
.7673909
2 3 1 | .4630814 .0726173 6.38 0.000 .3207541
.6054086
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1212549 .0082376 14.72 0.000 .1051094
.1374004
3 2 | .1272535 .0131464 9.68 0.000 .101487
.1530199
3 3 | .1647115 .0152977 10.77 0.000 .1347285
.1946945
|
_predict#arrested_22 |
3 0 | .1213047 .006356 19.09 0.000 .1088472
.1337622
3 1 | .2440686 .0280212 8.71 0.000 .189148
.2989891
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
3 1 0 | .112704 .0083276 13.53 0.000 .0963822
.1290259
3 1 1 | .2099519 .0369857 5.68 0.000 .1374614
.2824425
3 2 0 | .1183694 .0136521 8.67 0.000 .0916117
.1451271

5
 3 2 1 | .2228487 .0469385 4.75 0.000 .1308509
.3148465
3 3 0 | .1473966 .0153455 9.61 0.000 .11732
.1774732
3 3 1 | .3541716 .0708315 5.00 0.000 .2153445
.4929988
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif12_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_23 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2175.0279

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2095.3635
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2092.7015
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2092.6969
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2092.6969

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,870

LR chi2(18) = 164.66
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2092.6969 Pseudo R2 = 0.0379

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif12_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.055105 .1599127 0.35 0.723 .7839475 1.420054
3 | .8868338 .1449285 -0.73 0.462 .6437791 1.221652
|
1.arrested_23 | 1.931828 .4786245 2.66 0.008 1.188713 3.139496
|
colrace#arrested_23 |
2 1 | .8310928 .3549316 -0.43 0.665 .3598572 1.919415
3 1 | 1.24331 .5451854 0.50 0.619 .5264192 2.936481
|
arpre18 | 1.09281 .151739 0.64 0.523 .832441 1.434616
smokepre18 | 2.440242 .2902635 7.50 0.000 1.932785 3.080932
family_cat | .8064559 .095527 -1.82 0.069 .6393716 1.017204
usborn | .9332142 .265433 -0.24 0.808 .5344107 1.629625
_cons | .1383487 .0421555 -6.49 0.000 .0761395 .2513855
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.186303 .1784857 1.14 0.256 .8833394 1.593175
3 | .9471689 .1554791 -0.33 0.741 .6865964 1.306632
|
1.arrested_23 | .6908832 .2457515 -1.04 0.299 .3440542 1.387338
|
colrace#arrested_23 |
2 1 | 2.367746 1.153001 1.77 0.077 .91166 6.149465
3 1 | 1.824282 1.039415 1.06 0.291 .5971808 5.572862
|
arpre18 | 1.211013 .1695424 1.37 0.171 .9204071 1.593373
smokepre18 | 2.598404 .3164175 7.84 0.000 2.046693 3.298836
family_cat | .7959106 .0972533 -1.87 0.062 .6264046 1.011285
usborn | 1.075444 .3295009 0.24 0.812 .5899179 1.960577
_cons | .109188 .0357416 -6.77 0.000 .0574835 .2073992

6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_23

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,870

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1386266 .008838 15.69 0.000 .1213044
.1559488
1 2 | .1362848 .0133294 10.22 0.000 .1101596
.16241
1 3 | .1277364 .0138016 9.26 0.000 .1006857
.154787
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
1 0 | .1280826 .0064796 19.77 0.000 .1153829
.1407823
1 1 | .2183985 .027238 8.02 0.000 .1650129
.2717841
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |
1 1 0 | .1299505 .0089694 14.49 0.000 .1123709
.1475302
1 1 1 | .2300522 .0393043 5.85 0.000 .1530172
.3070873
1 2 0 | .1325784 .0138988 9.54 0.000 .1053373
.1598196
1 2 1 | .1791776 .0459338 3.90 0.000 .089149
.2692062
1 3 0 | .1180777 .014106 8.37 0.000 .0904304
.145725
1 3 1 | .2328894 .056956 4.09 0.000 .1212576
.3445212
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7414585 .0110624 67.02 0.000 .7197765
.7631404
2 2 | .7169079 .0171565 41.79 0.000 .6832819
.750534
2 3 | .7516352 .0176597 42.56 0.000 .7170229
.7862476
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
2 0 | .7439992 .0083214 89.41 0.000 .7276896
.7603088
2 1 | .6646602 .0308848 21.52 0.000 .604127
.7251933
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |

7
 2 1 0 | .7458411 .0114414 65.19 0.000 .7234164
.7682659
2 1 1 | .6913974 .0431417 16.03 0.000 .6068413
.7759535
2 2 0 | .7250354 .0179491 40.39 0.000 .6898559
.7602149
2 2 1 | .6253112 .0578951 10.80 0.000 .5118389
.7387834
2 3 0 | .7613334 .0183727 41.44 0.000 .7253234
.7973433
2 3 1 | .6426829 .0644467 9.97 0.000 .5163696
.7689961
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .119915 .0082676 14.50 0.000 .1037108
.1361191
3 2 | .1468073 .0137082 10.71 0.000 .1199396
.1736749
3 3 | .1206284 .0136081 8.86 0.000 .0939571
.1472997
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
3 0 | .1279182 .006469 19.77 0.000 .1152392
.1405972
3 1 | .1169413 .0199022 5.88 0.000 .0779338
.1559489
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |
3 1 0 | .1242083 .0087628 14.17 0.000 .1070336
.1413831
3 1 1 | .0785504 .024116 3.26 0.001 .0312838
.1258169
3 2 0 | .1423862 .014315 9.95 0.000 .1143293
.170443
3 2 1 | .1955112 .04651 4.20 0.000 .1043533
.2866691
3 3 0 | .1205889 .0142844 8.44 0.000 .092592
.1485858
3 3 1 | .1244277 .0441243 2.82 0.005 .0379457
.2109098
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

8
.
. mlogit smokedif13_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_24 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2087.9686

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2003.9016
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2001.0928
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2001.0886
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2001.0886

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,868

LR chi2(18) = 173.76
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2001.0886 Pseudo R2 = 0.0416

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif13_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.234118 .1921032 1.35 0.177 .9096168 1.674384
3 | 1.184679 .1874157 1.07 0.284 .8688422 1.615327
|
1.arrested_24 | 1.512905 .4445637 1.41 0.159 .8505271 2.691134
|
colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 | .3734237 .2029364 -1.81 0.070 .1287117 1.083392
3 1 | .8286769 .4459266 -0.35 0.727 .2886275 2.37921
|
arpre18 | 1.215867 .167986 1.41 0.157 .9274334 1.594004
smokepre18 | 3.269121 .407819 9.50 0.000 2.560027 4.174624
family_cat | .8161648 .1001997 -1.65 0.098 .6416184 1.038195
usborn | 1.109596 .3309208 0.35 0.727 .6184525 1.99078
_cons | .0833944 .0268241 -7.72 0.000 .044396 .1566496
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.19091 .1862311 1.12 0.264 .8765372 1.618033
3 | 1.036442 .1704178 0.22 0.828 .750906 1.430555
|
1.arrested_24 | 1.245385 .4066805 0.67 0.502 .6566651 2.361911
|
colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 | 1.316028 .6070964 0.60 0.552 .5328413 3.250368
3 1 | 1.03973 .5982473 0.07 0.946 .336628 3.211375
|
arpre18 | 1.023973 .1500174 0.16 0.872 .7683928 1.364565
smokepre18 | 2.471924 .3076822 7.27 0.000 1.936803 3.154894
family_cat | .865645 .1076722 -1.16 0.246 .6783661 1.104627
usborn | 1.220137 .3826523 0.63 0.526 .6598718 2.256096
_cons | .0887242 .0297228 -7.23 0.000 .0460138 .1710788
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_24

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,868

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

9
2._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .120307 .0082363 14.61 0.000 .1041642
.1364498
1 2 | .1311781 .0132971 9.87 0.000 .1051163
.15724
1 3 | .1358844 .014009 9.70 0.000 .1084274
.1633414
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
1 0 | .1252788 .0063396 19.76 0.000 .1128534
.1377043
1 1 | .1388496 .0235189 5.90 0.000 .0927534
.1849458
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
1 1 0 | .116928 .0084269 13.88 0.000 .1004115
.1334445
1 1 1 | .1598479 .0351746 4.54 0.000 .0909069
.2287889
1 2 0 | .1362064 .0141469 9.63 0.000 .108479
.1639338
1 2 1 | .0753631 .0297695 2.53 0.011 .0170158
.1337103
1 3 0 | .1342414 .0144583 9.28 0.000 .1059037
.1625791
1 3 1 | .1557078 .0534859 2.91 0.004 .0508773
.2605383
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7649096 .0106753 71.65 0.000 .7439864
.7858328
2 2 | .7345216 .0170192 43.16 0.000 .7011646
.7678785
2 3 | .7479262 .0175073 42.72 0.000 .7136126
.7822398
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
2 0 | .757193 .0081009 93.47 0.000 .7413155
.7730706
2 1 | .7119388 .0313055 22.74 0.000 .6505811
.7732965
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 0 | .7692779 .0109618 70.18 0.000 .7477932
.7907626
2 1 1 | .7112899 .0451839 15.74 0.000 .6227311
.7998486
2 2 0 | .7354374 .0177958 41.33 0.000 .7005584
.7703165
2 2 1 | .7187977 .052891 13.59 0.000 .6151333
.8224621
2 3 0 | .7512223 .0180906 41.53 0.000 .7157654
.7866791

10
 2 3 1 | .7064727 .0672805 10.50 0.000 .5746053
.8383402
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1147834 .0081795 14.03 0.000 .0987518
.130815
3 2 | .1343003 .0133923 10.03 0.000 .108052
.1605487
3 3 | .1161894 .0132566 8.76 0.000 .0902069
.1421719
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
3 0 | .1175282 .0062158 18.91 0.000 .1053453
.129711
3 1 | .1492116 .0246474 6.05 0.000 .1009036
.1975195
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
3 1 0 | .1137941 .0084072 13.54 0.000 .0973163
.1302718
3 1 1 | .1288622 .0339502 3.80 0.000 .0623211
.1954034
3 2 0 | .1283562 .0138501 9.27 0.000 .1012105
.1555018
3 2 1 | .2058393 .048178 4.27 0.000 .111412
.3002665
3 3 0 | .1145364 .0136574 8.39 0.000 .0877684
.1413043
3 3 1 | .1378195 .0521555 2.64 0.008 .0355967
.2400423
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif14_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_25 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2077.5262

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2003.4684
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2000.8234
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2000.8196
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2000.8196

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,869

LR chi2(18) = 153.41
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2000.8196 Pseudo R2 = 0.0369

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif14_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.185061 .1815007 1.11 0.268 .8777544 1.599957
3 | 1.05071 .1652092 0.31 0.753 .772047 1.429955
|
1.arrested_25 | 1.020937 .3534013 0.06 0.952 .5180268 2.012082
|
colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 | 3.297564 1.517248 2.59 0.010 1.338275 8.125331
3 1 | 2.204443 1.208028 1.44 0.149 .7530832 6.452896
|

11
 arpre18 | 1.091649 .1513378 0.63 0.527 .8319152 1.432475
smokepre18 | 2.491196 .2999828 7.58 0.000 1.967472 3.15433
family_cat | .9503823 .1142385 -0.42 0.672 .7508992 1.20286
usborn | 1.263817 .3954962 0.75 0.454 .684402 2.333767
_cons | .08417 .0281141 -7.41 0.000 .0437364 .1619839
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.207318 .1943084 1.17 0.242 .8806986 1.655068
3 | 1.010803 .1691343 0.06 0.949 .7281785 1.403121
|
1.arrested_25 | .8591073 .3386193 -0.39 0.700 .3967749 1.860161
|
colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 | 2.580173 1.367067 1.79 0.074 .9133817 7.288622
3 1 | 2.670727 1.584649 1.66 0.098 .8347908 8.544397
|
arpre18 | .8964451 .1358041 -0.72 0.471 .6661524 1.206351
smokepre18 | 2.794253 .3570667 8.04 0.000 2.175174 3.589529
family_cat | .8580763 .1091751 -1.20 0.229 .668691 1.101099
usborn | .758589 .2122064 -0.99 0.323 .4384225 1.312563
_cons | .1262421 .0384522 -6.79 0.000 .0694922 .2293361
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_25

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,869

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1206785 .0083338 14.48 0.000 .1043445
.1370124
1 2 | .1468669 .0138506 10.60 0.000 .1197203
.1740135
1 3 | .1312551 .013779 9.53 0.000 .1042488
.1582613
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
1 0 | .125189 .0063579 19.69 0.000 .1127277
.1376503
1 1 | .187544 .0274545 6.83 0.000 .1337341
.2413538
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
1 1 0 | .1203542 .0085261 14.12 0.000 .1036434
.137065
1 1 1 | .1246632 .0355414 3.51 0.000 .0550034
.1943231

12
 1 2 0 | .1358061 .0142717 9.52 0.000 .1078341
.163778
1 2 1 | .3029241 .0545421 5.55 0.000 .1960237
.4098246
1 3 0 | .1254259 .0140502 8.93 0.000 .097888
.1529639
1 3 1 | .2129549 .0636024 3.35 0.001 .0882966
.3376133
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7729791 .0106808 72.37 0.000 .7520452
.793913
2 2 | .7263374 .0171787 42.28 0.000 .6926677
.760007
2 3 | .7560249 .0171565 44.07 0.000 .7223987
.789651
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
2 0 | .7636059 .0080535 94.82 0.000 .7478214
.7793905
2 1 | .6765359 .033191 20.38 0.000 .6114827
.7415891
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 0 | .7723373 .0109447 70.57 0.000 .7508861
.7937884
2 1 1 | .7817691 .0448184 17.44 0.000 .6939266
.8696115
2 2 0 | .7409094 .0178953 41.40 0.000 .7058353
.7759835
2 2 1 | .5165737 .0591143 8.74 0.000 .4007117
.6324357
2 3 0 | .7669963 .0176066 43.56 0.000 .7324881
.8015045
2 3 1 | .6014059 .07636 7.88 0.000 .451743
.7510688
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1063424 .0079521 13.37 0.000 .0907566
.1219282
3 2 | .1267957 .0132236 9.59 0.000 .100878
.1527135
3 3 | .11272 .0127784 8.82 0.000 .0876748
.1377653
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
3 0 | .111205 .0060349 18.43 0.000 .0993769
.1230331
3 1 | .1359201 .0244988 5.55 0.000 .0879034
.1839368
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
3 1 0 | .1073085 .0081844 13.11 0.000 .0912674
.1233497
3 1 1 | .0935677 .031655 2.96 0.003 .031525
.1556104
3 2 0 | .1232845 .0137435 8.97 0.000 .0963477
.1502213
3 2 1 | .1805022 .0456247 3.96 0.000 .0910795
.2699249
3 3 0 | .1075778 .0129992 8.28 0.000 .0820999
.1330557

13
 3 3 1 | .1856391 .0597402 3.11 0.002 .0685504
.3027278
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif15_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_26 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2003.5739

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1929.1549
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1926.9861
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1926.9835
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1926.9835

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,819

LR chi2(18) = 153.18
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1926.9835 Pseudo R2 = 0.0382

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif15_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | 1.130297 .1757934 0.79 0.431 .8333095 1.533129
3 | .9187417 .1498041 -0.52 0.603 .6674243 1.264692
|
1.arrested_26 | 1.919454 .6207266 2.02 0.044 1.018381 3.617806
|
colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 | .6947721 .3370292 -0.75 0.453 .2684913 1.797854
3 1 | 1.189156 .6805144 0.30 0.762 .3873685 3.650507
|
arpre18 | 1.018271 .1474825 0.13 0.901 .7666177 1.352534
smokepre18 | 2.608002 .3216951 7.77 0.000 2.04792 3.321261
family_cat | .8562534 .105037 -1.27 0.206 .6732634 1.088979
usborn | .587315 .1542336 -2.03 0.043 .3510256 .9826603
_cons | .1820298 .052306 -5.93 0.000 .1036456 .3196937
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.215193 .1950409 1.21 0.225 .8872082 1.664427
3 | .9397328 .1609064 -0.36 0.717 .6718259 1.314474
|
1.arrested_26 | 1.425447 .5149947 0.98 0.327 .7021395 2.893867
|
colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 | .580558 .3256043 -0.97 0.332 .1933979 1.742768
3 1 | 1.998332 1.165213 1.19 0.235 .6372915 6.266095
|
arpre18 | 1.396556 .2008227 2.32 0.020 1.053554 1.851227
smokepre18 | 2.627966 .3431219 7.40 0.000 2.034614 3.394356
family_cat | .8626516 .1116077 -1.14 0.253 .6694361 1.111634
usborn | 1.000553 .3292885 0.00 0.999 .5249334 1.907111
_cons | .0885224 .0312161 -6.88 0.000 .0443496 .176692
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_26

14
Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,819
Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1254764 .0087424 14.35 0.000 .1083416
.1426112
1 2 | .1332834 .013522 9.86 0.000 .1067808
.159786
1 3 | .1174408 .0129726 9.05 0.000 .0920149
.1428667
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
1 0 | .1214229 .0063009 19.27 0.000 .1090733
.1337725
1 1 | .188486 .0309733 6.09 0.000 .1277794
.2491925
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
1 1 0 | .1208006 .0087914 13.74 0.000 .1035698
.1380314
1 1 1 | .1971389 .0465867 4.23 0.000 .1058307
.2884471
1 2 0 | .1307634 .0140114 9.33 0.000 .1033017
.1582252
1 2 1 | .1701098 .0465873 3.65 0.000 .0788005
.2614191
1 3 0 | .1130983 .0131966 8.57 0.000 .0872335
.1389631
1 3 1 | .1883283 .064564 2.92 0.004 .0617852
.3148715
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .766419 .0109534 69.97 0.000 .7449508
.7878873
2 2 | .7443023 .0169805 43.83 0.000 .7110211
.7775834
2 3 | .7733341 .0166475 46.45 0.000 .7407056
.8059625
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
2 0 | .768587 .008023 95.80 0.000 .7528622
.7843117
2 1 | .6714279 .036748 18.27 0.000 .599403
.7434527
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 0 | .7724807 .0111211 69.46 0.000 .7506838
.7942776
2 1 1 | .6737742 .0546892 12.32 0.000 .5665853
.7809631

15
 2 2 0 | .7451653 .0176707 42.17 0.000 .7105315
.7797992
2 2 1 | .7296437 .0540615 13.50 0.000 .6236852
.8356022
2 3 0 | .7846729 .0170221 46.10 0.000 .7513102
.8180356
2 3 1 | .6005543 .0814552 7.37 0.000 .4409052
.7602035
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1081046 .0080862 13.37 0.000 .0922559
.1239532
3 2 | .1224143 .0129771 9.43 0.000 .0969798
.1478489
3 3 | .1092251 .0126455 8.64 0.000 .0844405
.1340098
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
3 0 | .1099901 .0060397 18.21 0.000 .0981524
.1218278
3 1 | .1400862 .0263871 5.31 0.000 .0883684
.191804
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
3 1 0 | .1067187 .0082452 12.94 0.000 .0905583
.1228791
3 1 1 | .1290869 .0371858 3.47 0.001 .0562039
.2019698
3 2 0 | .1240712 .0136024 9.12 0.000 .0974111
.1507314
3 2 1 | .1002465 .0360311 2.78 0.005 .0296269
.1708662
3 3 0 | .1022288 .0127646 8.01 0.000 .0772107
.127247
3 3 1 | .2111173 .0668093 3.16 0.002 .0801735
.3420612
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif16_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_27 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1570.3199

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1496.7029
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1493.6608
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1493.6535
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1493.6535

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,236

LR chi2(18) = 153.33
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1493.6535 Pseudo R2 = 0.0488

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif16_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .9352882 .1647346 -0.38 0.704 .6622488 1.320899
3 | 1.150956 .2016619 0.80 0.422 .8164272 1.622557
|

16
 1.arrested_27 | 1.856717 .709199 1.62 0.105 .8782488 3.925311
|
colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 | 1.425273 .8029307 0.63 0.529 .4724675 4.299563
3 1 | .8439205 .5564308 -0.26 0.797 .2317769 3.072791
|
arpre18 | 1.264048 .1956989 1.51 0.130 .9332135 1.712166
smokepre18 | 2.880968 .3988483 7.64 0.000 2.196322 3.779035
family_cat | .7585836 .1042591 -2.01 0.044 .5794487 .9930975
usborn | .8856718 .2788644 -0.39 0.700 .4778172 1.641662
_cons | .1193516 .0406574 -6.24 0.000 .061216 .2326977
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.002577 .1909353 0.01 0.989 .6902577 1.456212
3 | 1.033029 .2026139 0.17 0.868 .7033336 1.517272
|
1.arrested_27 | 1.665876 .710719 1.20 0.232 .7219239 3.844094
|
colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 | 1.123304 .7307886 0.18 0.858 .3138564 4.020351
3 1 | 2.025154 1.282722 1.11 0.265 .5852099 7.008169
|
arpre18 | 1.301895 .2191154 1.57 0.117 .9360828 1.810662
smokepre18 | 2.906942 .4405142 7.04 0.000 2.159963 3.912248
family_cat | .8439563 .1262952 -1.13 0.257 .6294199 1.131617
usborn | .6868787 .2199503 -1.17 0.241 .3666999 1.286617
_cons | .116451 .0409159 -6.12 0.000 .0584881 .2318565
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_27

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,236

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1265957 .0097032 13.05 0.000 .1075776
.1456137
1 2 | .1224779 .0140743 8.70 0.000 .0948929
.150063
1 3 | .1385844 .0159514 8.69 0.000 .1073202
.1698487
|
_predict#arrested_27 |
1 0 | .1243217 .0070895 17.54 0.000 .1104266
.1382169
1 1 | .1935232 .0353891 5.47 0.000 .1241618
.2628846
|

17
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |
1 1 0 | .1228016 .0097678 12.57 0.000 .1036571
.1419461
1 1 1 | .1897272 .0528732 3.59 0.000 .0860977
.2933567
1 2 0 | .1159335 .0143734 8.07 0.000 .0877622
.1441048
1 2 1 | .2316711 .0645618 3.59 0.000 .1051322
.35821
1 3 0 | .1377217 .0164703 8.36 0.000 .1054404
.1700029
1 3 1 | .1582856 .0645244 2.45 0.014 .03182
.2847511
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7712397 .0120845 63.82 0.000 .7475547
.7949248
2 2 | .7740812 .0177593 43.59 0.000 .7392737
.8088888
2 3 | .752347 .0193731 38.83 0.000 .7143763
.7903176
|
_predict#arrested_27 |
2 0 | .7752012 .0088221 87.87 0.000 .7579101
.7924923
2 1 | .6420272 .0432035 14.86 0.000 .5573498
.7267045
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 0 | .7771618 .0122254 63.57 0.000 .7532005
.8011231
2 1 1 | .6715695 .0645091 10.41 0.000 .5451339
.798005
2 2 0 | .7828341 .018285 42.81 0.000 .7469961
.818672
2 2 1 | .6252147 .0739719 8.45 0.000 .4802324
.770197
2 3 0 | .7615751 .0199555 38.16 0.000 .7224631
.8006871
2 3 1 | .5925771 .0851089 6.96 0.000 .4257667
.7593875
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1021646 .0088828 11.50 0.000 .0847546
.1195746
3 2 | .1034408 .013408 7.71 0.000 .0771617
.12972
3 3 | .1090686 .0141376 7.71 0.000 .0813595
.1367778
|
_predict#arrested_27 |
3 0 | .1004771 .0064834 15.50 0.000 .0877698
.1131843
3 1 | .1644496 .0327623 5.02 0.000 .1002367
.2286625
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |
3 1 0 | .1000366 .008972 11.15 0.000 .0824518
.1176214
3 1 1 | .1387033 .0464614 2.99 0.003 .0476407
.229766
3 2 0 | .1012324 .0137995 7.34 0.000 .074186
.1282789

18
 3 2 1 | .1431142 .0542469 2.64 0.008 .0367922
.2494363
3 3 0 | .1007033 .0142961 7.04 0.000 .0726835
.128723
3 3 1 | .2491373 .0756837 3.29 0.001 .1008
.3974746
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif17_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_28 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1081.5604

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1010.3537
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1006.4995
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1006.4887
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1006.4887

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 1,618

LR chi2(18) = 150.14
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1006.4887 Pseudo R2 = 0.0694

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif17_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .931288 .2108963 -0.31 0.753 .5974807 1.451591
3 | 1.046968 .2323816 0.21 0.836 .6776465 1.617571
|
1.arrested_28 | .847913 .4829924 -0.29 0.772 .2776423 2.589506
|
colrace#arrested_28 |
2 1 | 5.951912 4.55058 2.33 0.020 1.330037 26.63478
3 1 | 3.075754 2.508312 1.38 0.168 .6219953 15.20954
|
arpre18 | 1.571211 .2968422 2.39 0.017 1.084977 2.275351
smokepre18 | 3.563414 .6390721 7.09 0.000 2.507318 5.064342
family_cat | .727201 .1284615 -1.80 0.071 .5143847 1.028066
usborn | .4872672 .1680385 -2.08 0.037 .2478692 .9578815
_cons | .1479807 .055562 -5.09 0.000 .0708935 .3088902
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.013879 .2247898 0.06 0.950 .6565445 1.565699
3 | 1.010193 .2287348 0.04 0.964 .6481408 1.574487
|
1.arrested_28 | 1.364364 .6650867 0.64 0.524 .5248011 3.547036
|
colrace#arrested_28 |
2 1 | 3.092949 2.210486 1.58 0.114 .762134 12.55204
3 1 | 1.648483 1.298539 0.63 0.526 .352029 7.719525
|
arpre18 | 1.183613 .2339474 0.85 0.394 .8034616 1.74363
smokepre18 | 3.432237 .6090445 6.95 0.000 2.424003 4.859835
family_cat | .8189594 .1442656 -1.13 0.257 .579852 1.156665
usborn | 1.638326 .8818423 0.92 0.359 .5704721 4.705074
_cons | .0477395 .0267237 -5.43 0.000 .0159364 .1430098

19
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_28

Predictive margins Number of obs = 1,618

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1037546 .0105377 9.85 0.000 .0831011
.1244081
1 2 | .1076797 .0154682 6.96 0.000 .0773626
.1379969
1 3 | .1145412 .0163598 7.00 0.000 .0824766
.1466059
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
1 0 | .1043072 .0076757 13.59 0.000 .0892631
.1193513
1 1 | .1609192 .0355966 4.52 0.000 .0911511
.2306872
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |
1 1 0 | .1049362 .0108714 9.65 0.000 .0836287
.1262438
1 1 1 | .0868071 .0417115 2.08 0.037 .0050541
.16856
1 2 0 | .0985252 .0157228 6.27 0.000 .067709
.1293414
1 2 1 | .2648435 .080184 3.30 0.001 .1076857
.4220012
1 3 0 | .1089863 .0166878 6.53 0.000 .0762789
.1416938
1 3 1 | .2062101 .0816511 2.53 0.012 .0461769
.3662432
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7926167 .0136811 57.94 0.000 .7658021
.8194312
2 2 | .781507 .0200729 38.93 0.000 .7421648
.8208491
2 3 | .7800162 .0210672 37.03 0.000 .7387252
.8213071
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
2 0 | .7935342 .0099685 79.60 0.000 .7739962
.8130722
2 1 | .6698092 .0467823 14.32 0.000 .5781176
.7615008
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |

20
 2 1 0 | .7934868 .013985 56.74 0.000 .7660767
.8208969
2 1 1 | .778194 .0629482 12.36 0.000 .6548178
.9015702
2 2 0 | .7977208 .0207006 38.54 0.000 .7571484
.8382933
2 2 1 | .4971292 .0924142 5.38 0.000 .3160006
.6782577
2 3 0 | .7891723 .0217056 36.36 0.000 .7466302
.8317145
2 3 1 | .625594 .0968 6.46 0.000 .4358695
.8153185
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1036288 .0103725 9.99 0.000 .0832991
.1239584
3 2 | .1108133 .0158845 6.98 0.000 .0796802
.1419464
3 3 | .1054426 .0163369 6.45 0.000 .0734228
.1374623
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
3 0 | .1021586 .0076526 13.35 0.000 .0871599
.1171574
3 1 | .1692716 .0382506 4.43 0.000 .0943017
.2442415
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |
3 1 0 | .101577 .0105263 9.65 0.000 .0809458
.1222081
3 1 1 | .1349989 .0518882 2.60 0.009 .0333
.2366978
3 2 0 | .1037539 .0161754 6.41 0.000 .0720507
.1354572
3 2 1 | .2380273 .0791799 3.01 0.003 .0828376
.3932171
3 3 0 | .1018413 .0167477 6.08 0.000 .0690164
.1346663
3 3 1 | .1681959 .0760605 2.21 0.027 .0191201
.3172717
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif18_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_29 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 0 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -695.42574

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -658.47733
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -651.42977
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -650.98369
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -650.98124
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -650.98124

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 1,034

LR chi2(18) = 88.89
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -650.98124 Pseudo R2 = 0.0639

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif18_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

21
0 |
colrace |
2 | .7748521 .2328974 -0.85 0.396 .4299056 1.396576
3 | 1.212252 .3207734 0.73 0.467 .7216999 2.036239
|
1.arrested_29 | 5.651735 2.968669 3.30 0.001 2.018709 15.82303
|
colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 | .4918744 .3831844 -0.91 0.362 .1068424 2.264461
3 1 | .433189 .3997419 -0.91 0.365 .0709902 2.643362
|
arpre18 | 1.101294 .2729487 0.39 0.697 .677545 1.790062
smokepre18 | 2.583711 .5633997 4.35 0.000 1.685126 3.961462
family_cat | .7169991 .1559727 -1.53 0.126 .4681145 1.098209
usborn | 1.550857 .9798574 0.69 0.487 .4495398 5.350263
_cons | .0661973 .0435893 -4.12 0.000 .0182115 .2406222
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.321417 .3719532 0.99 0.322 .761103 2.294228
3 | .8597121 .2658783 -0.49 0.625 .4689286 1.576156
|
1.arrested_29 | 2.133204 1.516556 1.07 0.287 .5295276 8.593621
|
colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 | 1.508291 1.306047 0.47 0.635 .2763249 8.232854
3 1 | 2.269912 2.282025 0.82 0.415 .3164211 16.28369
|
arpre18 | 1.06139 .2720411 0.23 0.816 .6422533 1.754056
smokepre18 | 3.271434 .7422108 5.22 0.000 2.097108 5.103353
family_cat | .8331166 .1905515 -0.80 0.425 .5321302 1.304349
usborn | .842203 .4806663 -0.30 0.763 .2751787 2.577619
_cons | .0873423 .0529375 -4.02 0.000 .0266267 .2865046
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_29

Predictive margins Number of obs = 1,034

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .122627 .014083 8.71 0.000 .0950248
.1502292
1 2 | .086025 .017964 4.79 0.000 .0508161
.1212339
1 3 | .1312924 .0228569 5.74 0.000 .0864936
.1760911
|
_predict#arrested_29 |

22
 1 0 | .1043053 .0097609 10.69 0.000 .0851742
.1234364
1 1 | .2741176 .0626768 4.37 0.000 .1512734
.3969618
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |
1 1 0 | .1057275 .0134976 7.83 0.000 .0792727
.1321822
1 1 1 | .3596225 .1043019 3.45 0.001 .1551946
.5640504
1 2 0 | .0812885 .0187086 4.34 0.000 .0446203
.1179567
1 2 1 | .1542501 .0644125 2.39 0.017 .0280039
.2804962
1 3 0 | .1268067 .023345 5.43 0.000 .0810514
.1725619
1 3 1 | .2011518 .1070628 1.88 0.060 -.0086874
.410991
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7831613 .0173216 45.21 0.000 .7492115
.8171111
2 2 | .7826172 .0264658 29.57 0.000 .7307451
.8344893
2 3 | .7783814 .0271595 28.66 0.000 .7251498
.8316131
|
_predict#arrested_29 |
2 0 | .799084 .0126135 63.35 0.000 .774362
.823806
2 1 | .5446371 .0699052 7.79 0.000 .4076254
.6816488
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 0 | .8012006 .0172631 46.41 0.000 .7673655
.8350358
2 1 1 | .5220514 .111389 4.69 0.000 .3037329
.7403699
2 2 0 | .7967965 .0276757 28.79 0.000 .7425531
.8510399
2 2 1 | .5810339 .0889091 6.54 0.000 .4067753
.7552925
2 3 0 | .7940152 .0277555 28.61 0.000 .7396154
.8484151
2 3 1 | .5536128 .1347125 4.11 0.000 .2895811
.8176444
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .0942117 .0125392 7.51 0.000 .0696354
.1187881
3 2 | .1313578 .0224344 5.86 0.000 .0873871
.1753285
3 3 | .0903262 .0188757 4.79 0.000 .0533306
.1273218
|
_predict#arrested_29 |
3 0 | .0966107 .0094437 10.23 0.000 .0781014
.1151201
3 1 | .1812453 .0478854 3.78 0.000 .0873916
.275099
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |

23
 3 1 0 | .0930719 .0126822 7.34 0.000 .0682153
.1179284
3 1 1 | .1183262 .0657181 1.80 0.072 -.0104789
.2471312
3 2 0 | .121915 .0232962 5.23 0.000 .0762552
.1675748
3 2 1 | .264716 .0806514 3.28 0.001 .1066422
.4227898
3 3 0 | .0791781 .0186748 4.24 0.000 .0425763
.11578
3 3 1 | .2452354 .1100702 2.23 0.026 .0295017
.4609691
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
.
.
. *females
. mlogit smokedif10_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_21 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2160.261

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -2012.2521
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -2004.4865
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -2004.4545
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -2004.4545

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 3,064

LR chi2(18) = 311.61
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -2004.4545 Pseudo R2 = 0.0721

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif10_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .4059072 .0710405 -5.15 0.000 .2880397 .5720068
3 | .750144 .1212924 -1.78 0.075 .5464017 1.029858
|
1.arrested_21 | 1.365215 .5204063 0.82 0.414 .6467428 2.881845
|
colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 | .9823772 .8507217 -0.02 0.984 .1799502 5.362955
3 1 | .8537771 .7700914 -0.18 0.861 .1457392 5.001644
|
arpre18 | 1.20242 .2098088 1.06 0.291 .8541439 1.692705
smokepre18 | 3.816289 .4824074 10.59 0.000 2.978812 4.889219
family_cat | .7119579 .0873883 -2.77 0.006 .5597251 .9055946
usborn | 1.061477 .317824 0.20 0.842 .5902648 1.908863
_cons | .1153694 .0367225 -6.78 0.000 .061823 .2152935
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .7542955 .1168913 -1.82 0.069 .556715 1.021998
3 | .9976149 .1583597 -0.02 0.988 .7308777 1.361699
|
1.arrested_21 | 1.506466 .5925358 1.04 0.298 .6968796 3.256575

24
 |
colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 | .5754153 .4974197 -0.64 0.523 .10572 3.131883
3 1 | 1.704818 1.226411 0.74 0.458 .4162377 6.98256
|
arpre18 | 1.371393 .2329969 1.86 0.063 .9829797 1.913284
smokepre18 | 3.215261 .4010971 9.36 0.000 2.517854 4.105838
family_cat | .768442 .0943833 -2.14 0.032 .6040361 .9775956
usborn | 1.377266 .4314399 1.02 0.307 .7453701 2.544859
_cons | .0784358 .0261021 -7.65 0.000 .0408553 .1505845
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_21

Predictive margins Number of obs = 3,064

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif10_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1423997 .0087168 16.34 0.000 .1253151
.1594843
1 2 | .0682379 .0093112 7.33 0.000 .0499882
.0864876
1 3 | .1108395 .0127783 8.67 0.000 .0857946
.1358845
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
1 0 | .1166051 .0057338 20.34 0.000 .1053671
.1278431
1 1 | .1353225 .0328627 4.12 0.000 .0709127
.1997323
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
1 1 0 | .1415496 .008839 16.01 0.000 .1242254
.1588737
1 1 1 | .1698698 .0478727 3.55 0.000 .076041
.2636986
1 2 0 | .0674371 .0093951 7.18 0.000 .0490231
.0858511
1 2 1 | .0892765 .0593496 1.50 0.133 -.0270467
.2055996
1 3 0 | .1113157 .0130333 8.54 0.000 .0857709
.1368604
1 3 1 | .1030748 .0694242 1.48 0.138 -.0329942
.2391437
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7385486 .0108143 68.29 0.000 .7173529
.7597442
2 2 | .828493 .0135604 61.10 0.000 .8019151
.855071

25
 2 3 | .7619056 .0167988 45.35 0.000 .7289806
.7948307
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
2 0 | .7686016 .0073624 104.40 0.000 .7541715
.7830317
2 1 | .7065473 .044814 15.77 0.000 .6187134
.7943812
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
2 1 0 | .7406223 .0109623 67.56 0.000 .7191366
.762108
2 1 1 | .6735839 .0617061 10.92 0.000 .5526422
.7945256
2 2 0 | .8287319 .0137534 60.26 0.000 .8017756
.8556881
2 2 1 | .8218302 .0784336 10.48 0.000 .6681032
.9755573
2 3 0 | .7656341 .0170484 44.91 0.000 .7322199
.7990483
2 3 1 | .6445632 .1120805 5.75 0.000 .4248894
.864237
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1190517 .0080953 14.71 0.000 .1031852
.1349183
3 2 | .1032691 .0111994 9.22 0.000 .0813187
.1252195
3 3 | .1272549 .0135546 9.39 0.000 .1006883
.1538214
|
_predict#arrested_21 |
3 0 | .1147933 .0057681 19.90 0.000 .1034879
.1260986
3 1 | .1581302 .0361289 4.38 0.000 .0873188
.2289416
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_21 |
3 1 0 | .1178281 .0081995 14.37 0.000 .1017575
.1338988
3 1 1 | .1565463 .0469353 3.34 0.001 .0645549
.2485377
3 2 0 | .1038311 .0113954 9.11 0.000 .0814964
.1261657
3 2 1 | .0888933 .0593397 1.50 0.134 -.0274104
.205197
3 3 0 | .1230502 .0136707 9.00 0.000 .0962562
.1498443
3 3 1 | .252362 .1007378 2.51 0.012 .0549195
.4498046
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif11_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_22 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -2052.2166

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1934.5937
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1928.5077
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1928.4953
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1928.4953

26
Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 3,017
LR chi2(18) = 247.44
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1928.4953 Pseudo R2 = 0.0603

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif11_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .642847 .1055933 -2.69 0.007 .4658973 .8870029
3 | .8486165 .1431169 -0.97 0.330 .6097595 1.181039
|
1.arrested_22 | 1.00874 .4796118 0.02 0.985 .3972558 2.561465
|
colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 | 2.506391 1.811394 1.27 0.204 .6079629 10.33286
3 1 | 1.684246 1.313337 0.67 0.504 .3653066 7.765214
|
arpre18 | 1.457271 .2523242 2.17 0.030 1.037902 2.04609
smokepre18 | 3.433193 .4436971 9.54 0.000 2.664963 4.422882
family_cat | .7779436 .0986365 -1.98 0.048 .6067687 .9974086
usborn | 1.422253 .4797446 1.04 0.296 .7342697 2.754852
_cons | .0710591 .0253408 -7.41 0.000 .0353238 .1429459
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .7989212 .1279107 -1.40 0.161 .5837447 1.093415
3 | 1.050717 .1714544 0.30 0.762 .7631117 1.446717
|
1.arrested_22 | 2.088798 .808329 1.90 0.057 .9783542 4.45961
|
colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 | 1.087768 .7230415 0.13 0.899 .2956249 4.002502
3 1 | .3614456 .3186944 -1.15 0.248 .0641978 2.035007
|
arpre18 | 1.592896 .2723831 2.72 0.006 1.139287 2.227111
smokepre18 | 2.984015 .3822822 8.53 0.000 2.32142 3.835734
family_cat | .872076 .1096849 -1.09 0.276 .6815456 1.11587
usborn | 1.351005 .4242024 0.96 0.338 .7301098 2.499919
_cons | .0690494 .0231731 -7.96 0.000 .0357681 .1332983
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_22

Predictive margins Number of obs = 3,017

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif11_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------

27
 _predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1212871 .0081928 14.80 0.000 .1052295
.1373447
1 2 | .0883376 .0103605 8.53 0.000 .0680314
.1086438
1 3 | .1075821 .0128204 8.39 0.000 .0824546
.1327096
|
_predict#arrested_22 |
1 0 | .1091494 .0056596 19.29 0.000 .0980569
.120242
1 1 | .1343772 .0330025 4.07 0.000 .0696934
.1990609
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
1 1 0 | .1219654 .0083408 14.62 0.000 .1056176
.1383131
1 1 1 | .107117 .0418854 2.56 0.011 .0250232
.1892108
1 2 0 | .0856998 .0104633 8.19 0.000 .0651922
.1062074
1 2 1 | .1646161 .0672251 2.45 0.014 .0328574
.2963748
1 3 0 | .1052679 .0130023 8.10 0.000 .079784
.1307519
1 3 1 | .1690312 .078271 2.16 0.031 .0156228
.3224395
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7647823 .0105374 72.58 0.000 .7441293
.7854352
2 2 | .8128598 .0138921 58.51 0.000 .7856317
.8400879
2 3 | .7753562 .0168031 46.14 0.000 .7424227
.8082897
|
_predict#arrested_22 |
2 0 | .7824357 .0073318 106.72 0.000 .7680656
.7968057
2 1 | .6961981 .0455657 15.28 0.000 .606891
.7855052
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
2 1 0 | .7672243 .0106694 71.91 0.000 .7463127
.7881359
2 1 1 | .6907318 .0652877 10.58 0.000 .5627704
.8186933
2 2 0 | .8177747 .0140979 58.01 0.000 .7901433
.8454062
2 2 1 | .6675587 .0857706 7.78 0.000 .4994514
.8356659
2 3 0 | .7763806 .0171103 45.37 0.000 .742845
.8099162
2 3 1 | .7463574 .0919632 8.12 0.000 .5661128
.9266019
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1139306 .0080097 14.22 0.000 .0982318
.1296294
3 2 | .0988026 .0109679 9.01 0.000 .077306
.1202992
3 3 | .1170617 .0132992 8.80 0.000 .0909958
.1431276

28
 |
_predict#arrested_22 |
3 0 | .1084149 .0056806 19.09 0.000 .0972812
.1195486
3 1 | .1694247 .0368762 4.59 0.000 .0971487
.2417007
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_22 |
3 1 0 | .1108104 .0080548 13.76 0.000 .0950233
.1265974
3 1 1 | .2021512 .0562652 3.59 0.000 .0918735
.3124289
3 2 0 | .0965255 .0110956 8.70 0.000 .0747784
.1182725
3 2 1 | .1678252 .0687717 2.44 0.015 .0330352
.3026153
3 3 0 | .1183515 .0136289 8.68 0.000 .0916393
.1450637
3 3 1 | .0846115 .0579585 1.46 0.144 -.0289851
.198208
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif12_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_23 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1959.5767

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1870.8974
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1864.553
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1864.3652
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1864.3352
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -1864.328
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -1864.3265
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -1864.3262
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -1864.3261
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -1864.3261

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,989

LR chi2(18) = 190.50
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1864.3261 Pseudo R2 = 0.0486

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif12_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .6376775 .1066337 -2.69 0.007 .4594745 .8849947
3 | 1.006621 .1614616 0.04 0.967 .7350787 1.378474
|
1.arrested_23 | 1.250369 .6675232 0.42 0.676 .439152 3.560094
|
colrace#arrested_23 |
2 1 | 1.024352 .9635827 0.03 0.980 .162086 6.473712
3 1 | 1.163591 .9341457 0.19 0.850 .2412374 5.612494
|
arpre18 | 1.378262 .249224 1.77 0.076 .9669712 1.964492
smokepre18 | 2.496476 .3221188 7.09 0.000 1.938641 3.214825
family_cat | .7952277 .1014131 -1.80 0.072 .6193557 1.02104
usborn | 1.387077 .448708 1.01 0.312 .7357734 2.614913
_cons | .0798023 .0275599 -7.32 0.000 .0405556 .1570288

29
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .810596 .1315174 -1.29 0.196 .5897919 1.114064
3 | .910362 .1570803 -0.54 0.586 .649145 1.276693
|
1.arrested_23 | .7096312 .4607873 -0.53 0.597 .1987555 2.533648
|
colrace#arrested_23 |
2 1 | 5.025936 4.107249 1.98 0.048 1.012991 24.93608
3 1 | 1.70e-06 .0009616 -0.02 0.981 0 .
|
arpre18 | 1.595034 .2809573 2.65 0.008 1.129367 2.252708
smokepre18 | 2.831442 .3777261 7.80 0.000 2.179987 3.677574
family_cat | .6444323 .0860031 -3.29 0.001 .4961119 .8370953
usborn | .95956 .2955449 -0.13 0.893 .5246887 1.75486
_cons | .1040079 .0344383 -6.84 0.000 .0543529 .1990261
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_23

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,989

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif12_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .115976 .0082789 14.01 0.000 .0997496
.1322024
1 2 | .0789792 .0098557 8.01 0.000 .0596624
.098296
1 3 | .1190726 .013232 9.00 0.000 .0931384
.1450067
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
1 0 | .1059236 .0056378 18.79 0.000 .0948736
.1169735
1 1 | .1346232 .0399196 3.37 0.001 .0563821
.2128642
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |
1 1 0 | .1151425 .0083323 13.82 0.000 .0988115
.1314735
1 1 1 | .1445076 .0621459 2.33 0.020 .0227039
.2663114
1 2 0 | .0792151 .0100312 7.90 0.000 .0595543
.0988759
1 2 1 | .077877 .0530804 1.47 0.142 -.0261587
.1819127
1 3 0 | .1171406 .0134133 8.73 0.000 .090851
.1434303

30
 1 3 1 | .1807707 .0840118 2.15 0.031 .0161106
.3454309
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7783895 .0106534 73.06 0.000 .7575092
.7992699
2 2 | .823227 .0135596 60.71 0.000 .7966507
.8498032
2 3 | .7858507 .0164368 47.81 0.000 .7536352
.8180662
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
2 0 | .7929562 .0072807 108.91 0.000 .7786863
.8072262
2 1 | .7576943 .0492774 15.38 0.000 .6611124
.8542762
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |
2 1 0 | .7782968 .0107554 72.36 0.000 .7572166
.799377
2 1 1 | .7795148 .073239 10.64 0.000 .6359691
.9230605
2 2 0 | .8272826 .0137479 60.18 0.000 .8003372
.854228
2 2 1 | .6696555 .0918608 7.29 0.000 .4896116
.8496993
2 3 0 | .7847534 .0167357 46.89 0.000 .751952
.8175549
2 3 1 | .8192291 .0840119 9.75 0.000 .6545689
.9838894
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1056344 .0079535 13.28 0.000 .0900458
.1212231
3 2 | .0977938 .0106682 9.17 0.000 .0768846
.1187031
3 3 | .0950767 .0119387 7.96 0.000 .0716773
.1184762
|
_predict#arrested_23 |
3 0 | .1011202 .005508 18.36 0.000 .0903248
.1119156
3 1 | .1076825 .0323687 3.33 0.001 .0442411
.1711239
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_23 |
3 1 0 | .1065607 .0080769 13.19 0.000 .0907303
.1223912
3 1 1 | .0759776 .0431679 1.76 0.078 -.0086299
.1605851
3 2 0 | .0935023 .0107645 8.69 0.000 .0724042
.1146004
3 2 1 | .2524675 .0837787 3.01 0.003 .0882643
.4166707
3 3 0 | .098106 .0123109 7.97 0.000 .0739771
.1222348
3 3 1 | 1.26e-07 .0000714 0.00 0.999 -.0001398
.00014
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

31
. mlogit smokedif13_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_24 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1898.8873

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1810.08
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1804.5787
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1804.5659
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1804.5659

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,967

LR chi2(18) = 188.64
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1804.5659 Pseudo R2 = 0.0497

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif13_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .7822805 .1344228 -1.43 0.153 .5585946 1.09554
3 | 1.070846 .1840524 0.40 0.690 .7645854 1.499781
|
1.arrested_24 | 1.081558 .5133713 0.17 0.869 .4265981 2.742082
|
colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 | 4.727066 3.819414 1.92 0.055 .9701316 23.03311
3 1 | 2.066532 1.774821 0.85 0.398 .3838802 11.1247
|
arpre18 | 1.404272 .2550003 1.87 0.062 .9837449 2.004565
smokepre18 | 3.350763 .4609381 8.79 0.000 2.558884 4.387699
family_cat | .9026136 .1217855 -0.76 0.448 .6928722 1.175846
usborn | 1.15295 .3644979 0.45 0.653 .6204525 2.142459
_cons | .0634404 .0218003 -8.02 0.000 .0323492 .1244136
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .7199878 .1167272 -2.03 0.043 .5239925 .9892936
3 | .9495757 .1601883 -0.31 0.759 .6822389 1.321669
|
1.arrested_24 | 1.528969 .6242212 1.04 0.298 .6868864 3.403397
|
colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 | 1.555738 1.413286 0.49 0.627 .2622259 9.229908
3 1 | 2.048539 1.566681 0.94 0.348 .4575755 9.171194
|
arpre18 | 1.153188 .2144779 0.77 0.443 .8009174 1.660399
smokepre18 | 2.532335 .3316513 7.09 0.000 1.959035 3.273408
family_cat | .6933925 .0910549 -2.79 0.005 .5360448 .8969271
usborn | 1.333951 .4318786 0.89 0.373 .7072224 2.516078
_cons | .0841029 .0291185 -7.15 0.000 .0426681 .1657747
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_24

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,967

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))

32
3._predict : Pr(smokedif13_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .0979019 .007576 12.92 0.000 .0830533
.1127505
1 2 | .0873413 .0104519 8.36 0.000 .0668559
.1078267
1 3 | .1062178 .0126398 8.40 0.000 .0814442
.1309913
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
1 0 | .0951944 .0053882 17.67 0.000 .0846338
.105755
1 1 | .1587445 .042496 3.74 0.000 .0754539
.2420351
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
1 1 0 | .097961 .0077226 12.69 0.000 .082825
.1130969
1 1 1 | .0980979 .0389414 2.52 0.012 .0217742
.1744217
1 2 0 | .0819998 .0102972 7.96 0.000 .0618178
.1021819
1 2 1 | .2710194 .1146676 2.36 0.018 .046275
.4957639
1 3 0 | .1046711 .012791 8.18 0.000 .0796011
.129741
1 3 1 | .165234 .0884759 1.87 0.062 -.0081755
.3386435
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7898623 .0104738 75.41 0.000 .769334
.8103906
2 2 | .8264159 .0134247 61.56 0.000 .800104
.8527279
2 3 | .7852248 .0164936 47.61 0.000 .752898
.8175516
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
2 0 | .8024368 .0071998 111.45 0.000 .7883255
.8165482
2 1 | .6724405 .0548397 12.26 0.000 .5649566
.7799244
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
2 1 0 | .7911504 .0106435 74.33 0.000 .7702895
.8120113
2 1 1 | .7445146 .0603623 12.33 0.000 .6262066
.8628226
2 2 0 | .8328333 .0134597 61.88 0.000 .8064528
.8592139
2 2 1 | .5950959 .1258929 4.73 0.000 .3483503
.8418414
2 3 0 | .7902231 .0167082 47.30 0.000 .7574756
.8229706

33
 2 3 1 | .5991201 .1222744 4.90 0.000 .3594667
.8387734
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .1122358 .0082898 13.54 0.000 .0959881
.1284835
3 2 | .0862428 .0100452 8.59 0.000 .0665545
.1059311
3 3 | .1085575 .0128092 8.47 0.000 .0834519
.133663
|
_predict#arrested_24 |
3 0 | .1023688 .0055918 18.31 0.000 .0914091
.1133285
3 1 | .168815 .0428291 3.94 0.000 .0848715
.2527586
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_24 |
3 1 0 | .1108887 .0084102 13.19 0.000 .094405
.1273724
3 1 1 | .1573875 .0501448 3.14 0.002 .0591054
.2556696
3 2 0 | .0851668 .0100417 8.48 0.000 .0654856
.1048481
3 2 1 | .1338847 .0881356 1.52 0.129 -.0388578
.3066273
3 3 0 | .1051058 .0128847 8.16 0.000 .0798522
.1303594
3 3 1 | .2356459 .1050645 2.24 0.025 .0297233
.4415684
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif14_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_25 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1897.271

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1799.7936
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1793.9154
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1793.8918
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1793.8918

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,942

LR chi2(18) = 206.76
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1793.8918 Pseudo R2 = 0.0545

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif14_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .7510132 .1240506 -1.73 0.083 .5433106 1.038119
3 | 1.122705 .1824275 0.71 0.476 .8164974 1.54375
|
1.arrested_25 | 1.410691 .652982 0.74 0.457 .5694126 3.494917
|
colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 | 2.834544 2.082987 1.42 0.156 .671384 11.96728
3 1 | .4148015 .4951304 -0.74 0.461 .0399759 4.3041
|

34
 arpre18 | 1.333299 .229236 1.67 0.094 .9518734 1.867565
smokepre18 | 3.404694 .4447058 9.38 0.000 2.635712 4.39803
family_cat | .8824072 .1121818 -0.98 0.325 .6877878 1.132097
usborn | 1.151582 .3341235 0.49 0.627 .6521155 2.033598
_cons | .0747777 .0236129 -8.21 0.000 .0402702 .1388546
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .9413906 .1589819 -0.36 0.721 .6761126 1.310752
3 | 1.114824 .2005168 0.60 0.546 .7836205 1.586014
|
1.arrested_25 | 1.072952 .60931 0.12 0.901 .3525321 3.265594
|
colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 | 4.401035 3.436386 1.90 0.058 .9526326 20.33219
3 1 | 1.469266 1.492304 0.38 0.705 .200702 10.75595
|
arpre18 | 1.092107 .2120964 0.45 0.650 .7463705 1.597996
smokepre18 | 3.012965 .4224648 7.87 0.000 2.288981 3.965937
family_cat | .7789856 .1080013 -1.80 0.072 .5936301 1.022217
usborn | 2.20829 .8999932 1.94 0.052 .9934529 4.908684
_cons | .0366262 .015715 -7.71 0.000 .0157968 .0849206
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_25

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,942

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif14_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1151271 .0081218 14.17 0.000 .0992085
.1310456
1 2 | .0924077 .0107486 8.60 0.000 .0713408
.1134746
1 3 | .1228302 .0137194 8.95 0.000 .0959407
.1497198
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
1 0 | .109917 .0057358 19.16 0.000 .098675
.121159
1 1 | .1521698 .0397236 3.83 0.000 .0743131
.2300266
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
1 1 0 | .1141312 .0082043 13.91 0.000 .098051
.1302114
1 1 1 | .1508476 .0543625 2.77 0.006 .044299
.2573961

35
 1 2 0 | .0895897 .0108356 8.27 0.000 .0683524
.110827
1 2 1 | .2105047 .0835458 2.52 0.012 .046758
.3742514
1 3 0 | .1243362 .0139756 8.90 0.000 .0969445
.1517278
1 3 1 | .0725135 .0705343 1.03 0.304 -.0657311
.2107581
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7951704 .0102104 77.88 0.000 .7751583
.8151825
2 2 | .8157001 .0138277 58.99 0.000 .7885984
.8428019
2 3 | .7784676 .0171072 45.51 0.000 .744938
.8119972
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
2 0 | .7994679 .0072297 110.58 0.000 .7852979
.8136379
2 1 | .7006887 .0519407 13.49 0.000 .5988868
.8024906
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
2 1 0 | .7961371 .0103237 77.12 0.000 .775903
.8163712
2 1 1 | .758785 .0667709 11.36 0.000 .6279164
.8896536
2 2 0 | .8222276 .0140207 58.64 0.000 .7947476
.8497077
2 2 1 | .5426039 .1016046 5.34 0.000 .3434626
.7417452
2 3 0 | .7785301 .0173017 45.00 0.000 .7446194
.8124409
2 3 1 | .7750671 .118114 6.56 0.000 .543568
1.006566
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .0897025 .0073156 12.26 0.000 .0753642
.1040408
3 2 | .0918921 .0105028 8.75 0.000 .0713069
.1124773
3 3 | .0987022 .0127216 7.76 0.000 .0737683
.123636
|
_predict#arrested_25 |
3 0 | .0906151 .0053064 17.08 0.000 .0802148
.1010155
3 1 | .1471414 .039956 3.68 0.000 .0688291
.2254538
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_25 |
3 1 0 | .0897317 .0074121 12.11 0.000 .0752042
.1042592
3 1 1 | .0903675 .0439922 2.05 0.040 .0041444
.1765905
3 2 0 | .0881827 .0105543 8.36 0.000 .0674966
.1088688
3 2 1 | .2468914 .0879386 2.81 0.005 .0745349
.4192479
3 3 0 | .0971337 .012795 7.59 0.000 .0720561
.1222114

36
 3 3 1 | .1524194 .1012763 1.50 0.132 -.0460785
.3509173
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif15_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_26 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1748.7705

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1634.2138
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1624.1632
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1624.1138
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1624.1138

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,869

LR chi2(18) = 249.31
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1624.1138 Pseudo R2 = 0.0713

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif15_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .792109 .1381235 -1.34 0.181 .562804 1.11484
3 | .8677529 .1603765 -0.77 0.443 .6040579 1.246561
|
1.arrested_26 | .9567273 .5416822 -0.08 0.938 .3153935 2.902175
|
colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 | 5.307583 4.182389 2.12 0.034 1.132786 24.86828
3 1 | 1.558834 1.551501 0.45 0.656 .2216168 10.96471
|
arpre18 | 1.223079 .232144 1.06 0.289 .8431288 1.774251
smokepre18 | 3.498275 .4960369 8.83 0.000 2.649465 4.61902
family_cat | .8424821 .1168331 -1.24 0.216 .6419754 1.105613
usborn | 2.218005 .972072 1.82 0.069 .9395321 5.236169
_cons | .034861 .015942 -7.34 0.000 .014226 .0854271
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .9355931 .1643698 -0.38 0.705 .6630458 1.320172
3 | 1.092034 .1996507 0.48 0.630 .7631596 1.562632
|
1.arrested_26 | 1.210453 .6346927 0.36 0.716 .433138 3.382747
|
colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 | 1.848576 1.600284 0.71 0.478 .338817 10.08578
3 1 | 1.541068 1.362498 0.49 0.625 .2724284 8.717483
|
arpre18 | 1.508382 .2719038 2.28 0.023 1.05943 2.147586
smokepre18 | 4.113763 .6074848 9.58 0.000 3.079932 5.494615
family_cat | .6927771 .099748 -2.55 0.011 .5224385 .9186539
usborn | 1.646501 .6410862 1.28 0.200 .7676011 3.531736
_cons | .0389164 .0160484 -7.87 0.000 .0173426 .0873278
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_26

37
Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,869
Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif15_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1003069 .007694 13.04 0.000 .085227
.1153868
1 2 | .0873371 .0105631 8.27 0.000 .0666338
.1080404
1 3 | .0883314 .0121049 7.30 0.000 .0646062
.1120567
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
1 0 | .0933597 .0054186 17.23 0.000 .0827393
.10398
1 1 | .146286 .0392842 3.72 0.000 .0692903
.2232817
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
1 1 0 | .1005083 .0077973 12.89 0.000 .085226
.1157907
1 1 1 | .0943044 .0454283 2.08 0.038 .0052665
.1833422
1 2 0 | .0824984 .0105744 7.80 0.000 .0617731
.1032238
1 2 1 | .2720163 .0947047 2.87 0.004 .0863985
.4576341
1 3 0 | .0877467 .0122803 7.15 0.000 .0636779
.1118156
1 3 1 | .1123676 .0755114 1.49 0.137 -.0356321
.2603673
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .8097133 .0098744 82.00 0.000 .7903599
.8290667
2 2 | .8249319 .013752 59.99 0.000 .7979784
.8518853
2 3 | .8117097 .0160988 50.42 0.000 .7801566
.8432628
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
2 0 | .8162153 .0070196 116.28 0.000 .8024572
.8299734
2 1 | .7317727 .049006 14.93 0.000 .6357228
.8278226
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
2 1 0 | .8100266 .0099922 81.07 0.000 .7904423
.8296109
2 1 1 | .7996552 .0612135 13.06 0.000 .679679
.9196314

38
 2 2 0 | .8306042 .0139261 59.64 0.000 .8033094
.8578989
2 2 1 | .6042521 .1023124 5.91 0.000 .4037235
.8047806
2 3 0 | .8139623 .0163314 49.84 0.000 .7819533
.8459713
2 3 1 | .7316342 .1039889 7.04 0.000 .5278196
.9354487
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .0899798 .0072728 12.37 0.000 .0757254
.1042341
3 2 | .0877311 .0105978 8.28 0.000 .0669597
.1085024
3 3 | .0999589 .0126365 7.91 0.000 .0751917
.124726
|
_predict#arrested_26 |
3 0 | .090425 .0053162 17.01 0.000 .0800054
.1008446
3 1 | .1219413 .0349645 3.49 0.000 .0534121
.1904705
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_26 |
3 1 0 | .0894651 .007357 12.16 0.000 .0750455
.1038846
3 1 1 | .1060404 .0454323 2.33 0.020 .0169948
.195086
3 2 0 | .0868974 .0107441 8.09 0.000 .0658394
.1079554
3 2 1 | .1237317 .0668922 1.85 0.064 -.0073746
.2548379
3 3 0 | .098291 .0128018 7.68 0.000 .0731999
.123382
3 3 1 | .1559982 .082998 1.88 0.060 -.0066748
.3186712
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif16_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_27 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1439.9182

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1358.0376
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1352.358
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1352.1899
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1352.1623
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -1352.1558
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -1352.1544
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -1352.154
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -1352.154

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 2,293

LR chi2(18) = 175.53
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -1352.154 Pseudo R2 = 0.0610

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif16_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |

39
 colrace |
2 | 1.045195 .1911292 0.24 0.809 .7303699 1.495726
3 | 1.068446 .2101091 0.34 0.736 .7267159 1.570872
|
1.arrested_27 | 1.614917 .8212184 0.94 0.346 .5960696 4.375258
|
colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 | .8926267 .7585891 -0.13 0.894 .1687662 4.72122
3 1 | .3732854 .4525661 -0.81 0.416 .0346782 4.018148
|
arpre18 | 1.556663 .3104989 2.22 0.027 1.052956 2.301331
smokepre18 | 3.522605 .5364973 8.27 0.000 2.613514 4.747916
family_cat | .7692195 .1163468 -1.73 0.083 .571878 1.034659
usborn | .8045825 .2645572 -0.66 0.508 .4223617 1.532698
_cons | .0937477 .0335916 -6.61 0.000 .0464471 .1892178
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .8583665 .1651089 -0.79 0.427 .5887651 1.251421
3 | .8246103 .1762334 -0.90 0.367 .5424158 1.253618
|
1.arrested_27 | .2695165 .2817686 -1.25 0.210 .0347287 2.091617
|
colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 | .0000144 .0055484 -0.03 0.977 0 .
3 1 | 3.013954 4.58105 0.73 0.468 .1532342 59.28128
|
arpre18 | 1.475633 .3168173 1.81 0.070 .9687817 2.24766
smokepre18 | 3.465642 .5570028 7.73 0.000 2.529167 4.748867
family_cat | .7337866 .1174143 -1.93 0.053 .5362505 1.004088
usborn | 1.067503 .425978 0.16 0.870 .48832 2.33364
_cons | .0740262 .0314531 -6.13 0.000 .0321897 .1702368
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.

. margins colrace##arrested_27

Predictive margins Number of obs = 2,293

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif16_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1016959 .0088456 11.50 0.000 .0843588
.1190329
1 2 | .1073415 .0129027 8.32 0.000 .0820528
.1326303
1 3 | .1070355 .014577 7.34 0.000 .0784652
.1356059
|
_predict#arrested_27 |

40
 1 0 | .1029548 .0063235 16.28 0.000 .090561
.1153487
1 1 | .143277 .0425911 3.36 0.001 .0597999
.2267541
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |
1 1 0 | .0997691 .0089128 11.19 0.000 .0823004
.1172378
1 1 1 | .1634809 .0633548 2.58 0.010 .0393078
.287654
1 2 0 | .105601 .0130387 8.10 0.000 .0800456
.1311564
1 2 1 | .1606891 .084163 1.91 0.056 -.0042673
.3256455
1 3 0 | .1080979 .0148461 7.28 0.000 .0790001
.1371956
1 3 1 | .0707281 .0690391 1.02 0.306 -.0645861
.2060423
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .80108 .0115711 69.23 0.000 .7784011
.8237588
2 2 | .808864 .0159108 50.84 0.000 .7776793
.8400486
2 3 | .8100964 .0181164 44.72 0.000 .774589
.8456038
|
_predict#arrested_27 |
2 0 | .8044316 .0080661 99.73 0.000 .7886224
.8202408
2 1 | .8276195 .0463173 17.87 0.000 .7368393
.9183998
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |
2 1 0 | .8008542 .0117216 68.32 0.000 .7778804
.8238281
2 1 1 | .809335 .0675976 11.97 0.000 .6768462
.9418237
2 2 0 | .8080139 .0161536 50.02 0.000 .7763535
.8396743
2 2 1 | .8393106 .084163 9.97 0.000 .674354
1.004267
2 3 0 | .8087998 .0183905 43.98 0.000 .7727551
.8448446
2 3 1 | .8560232 .0963438 8.89 0.000 .6671928
1.044854
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .0972242 .0087008 11.17 0.000 .0801709
.1142774
3 2 | .0837945 .0114885 7.29 0.000 .0612774
.1063116
3 3 | .0828681 .0131601 6.30 0.000 .0570747
.1086615
|
_predict#arrested_27 |
3 0 | .0926136 .0060376 15.34 0.000 .08078
.1044471
3 1 | .0291035 .0203334 1.43 0.152 -.0107493
.0689562
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_27 |

41
 3 1 0 | .0993767 .0089067 11.16 0.000 .0819199
.1168334
3 1 1 | .0271842 .0269889 1.01 0.314 -.0257131
.0800815
3 2 0 | .0863851 .0118324 7.30 0.000 .0631941
.1095761
3 2 1 | 3.54e-07 .0001364 0.00 0.998 -.000267
.0002677
3 3 0 | .0831023 .0133654 6.22 0.000 .0569066
.109298
3 3 1 | .0732487 .0713117 1.03 0.304 -.0665197
.2130171
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif17_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_28 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -994.90401

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -941.36178
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -933.58234
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -933.46312
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -933.43934
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -933.43403
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -933.43273
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -933.43247
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -933.43241
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -933.4324

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 1,686

LR chi2(18) = 122.94
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -933.4324 Pseudo R2 = 0.0618

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif17_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .9698245 .2187692 -0.14 0.892 .623279 1.509051
3 | .9985082 .2410025 -0.01 0.995 .622162 1.602506
|
1.arrested_28 | 2.611412 1.886547 1.33 0.184 .6337918 10.7598
|
colrace#arrested_28 |
2 1 | .7513275 1.048988 -0.20 0.838 .0486854 11.59471
3 1 | 5.05e-07 .0004695 -0.02 0.988 0 .
|
arpre18 | 1.196665 .3117672 0.69 0.491 .7181396 1.99405
smokepre18 | 3.310878 .6111939 6.49 0.000 2.305737 4.754189
family_cat | .7944799 .1458017 -1.25 0.210 .554462 1.138398
usborn | 1.038071 .4525715 0.09 0.932 .4416983 2.439655
_cons | .0718158 .0337677 -5.60 0.000 .028575 .1804904
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | 1.228619 .2885072 0.88 0.381 .7754186 1.946697
3 | 1.286477 .3175733 1.02 0.308 .7930103 2.087015
|

42
 1.arrested_28 | 5.043302 3.176733 2.57 0.010 1.467407 17.33323
|
colrace#arrested_28 |
2 1 | .7253422 .8388017 -0.28 0.781 .075196 6.996666
3 1 | 2.24e-07 .0002144 -0.02 0.987 0 .
|
arpre18 | 1.247157 .3276462 0.84 0.401 .7452438 2.087104
smokepre18 | 4.043434 .7879663 7.17 0.000 2.759764 5.924186
family_cat | .8697523 .1675731 -0.72 0.469 .5962064 1.268804
usborn | 2.404506 1.489438 1.42 0.157 .7141029 8.096379
_cons | .0216978 .0141086 -5.89 0.000 .0060665 .0776055
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.
Note: 4 observations completely determined. Standard errors questionable.

. margins colrace##arrested_28

Predictive margins Number of obs = 1,686

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))
3._predict : Pr(smokedif17_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .0947182 .0100057 9.47 0.000 .0751073
.1143291
1 2 | .0897217 .0141559 6.34 0.000 .0619768
.1174667
1 3 | .0890671 .0157853 5.64 0.000 .0581286
.1200057
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
1 0 | .0921739 .0070245 13.12 0.000 .0784061
.1059418
1 1 | .1155536 .0553581 2.09 0.037 .0070538
.2240534
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |
1 1 0 | .0937503 .0100818 9.30 0.000 .0739903
.1135103
1 1 1 | .1590405 .086884 1.83 0.067 -.0112491
.3293301
1 2 0 | .0892203 .0142739 6.25 0.000 .0612441
.1171966
1 2 1 | .1257056 .1206489 1.04 0.297 -.1107619
.3621732
1 3 0 | .0910492 .0161356 5.64 0.000 .059424
.1226744
1 3 1 | 1.61e-07 .0001494 0.00 0.999 -.0002927
.000293
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .8268665 .0125202 66.04 0.000 .8023273
.8514057

43
 2 2 | .816918 .0186039 43.91 0.000 .780455
.8533811
2 3 | .8192241 .0208948 39.21 0.000 .7782711
.8601771
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
2 0 | .8252264 .0090318 91.37 0.000 .8075244
.8429283
2 1 | .6926702 .0782576 8.85 0.000 .5392881
.8460523
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |
2 1 0 | .8310596 .0126311 65.79 0.000 .8063032
.8558161
2 1 1 | .6002474 .118401 5.07 0.000 .3681858
.832309
2 2 0 | .8202462 .0187513 43.74 0.000 .7834943
.8569981
2 2 1 | .6408394 .1790742 3.58 0.000 .2898603
.9918185
2 3 0 | .8150368 .0213419 38.19 0.000 .7732074
.8568662
2 3 1 | .9999997 .0002035 4914.19 0.000 .9996009
1.000399
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .0784153 .0087751 8.94 0.000 .0612165
.0956142
3 2 | .0933602 .0145118 6.43 0.000 .0649177
.1218028
3 3 | .0917088 .0162209 5.65 0.000 .0599165
.1235011
|
_predict#arrested_28 |
3 0 | .0825997 .0066644 12.39 0.000 .0695378
.0956616
3 1 | .1917762 .0666349 2.88 0.004 .0611742
.3223781
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_28 |
3 1 0 | .07519 .0087802 8.56 0.000 .0579812
.0923989
3 1 1 | .2407121 .098235 2.45 0.014 .0481749
.4332492
3 2 0 | .0905334 .0145545 6.22 0.000 .0620071
.1190598
3 2 1 | .233455 .1507511 1.55 0.121 -.0620117
.5289217
3 3 0 | .093914 .0165999 5.66 0.000 .0613787
.1264492
3 3 1 | 1.44e-07 .0001381 0.00 0.999 -.0002706
.0002709
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
. mlogit smokedif18_ord b1.colrace##i.arrested_29 arpre18 smokepre18 family_cat usborn
if (female == 1 & colrace
> != 4), rrr

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -694.34364

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -661.90802
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -653.77707

44
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -651.50215
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -651.39461
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -651.36919
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -651.36431
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -651.36352
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -651.36333
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -651.36329
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -651.36328

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 1,099

LR chi2(18) = 85.96
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -651.36328 Pseudo R2 = 0.0619

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
smokedif18_ord | RRR Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0 |
colrace |
2 | .8424253 .2296221 -0.63 0.529 .4937614 1.437294
3 | .8341868 .2570478 -0.59 0.556 .4560081 1.525998
|
1.arrested_29 | 6.714119 5.318039 2.40 0.016 1.421607 31.71017
|
colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 | 1.274356 1.498626 0.21 0.837 .1271418 12.773
3 1 | 2.15e-07 .0002181 -0.02 0.988 0 .
|
arpre18 | 1.266164 .4206858 0.71 0.478 .6602009 2.428307
smokepre18 | 2.837729 .6480636 4.57 0.000 1.813755 4.439799
family_cat | .7856469 .1791107 -1.06 0.290 .5025412 1.22824
usborn | 1.332094 .8449104 0.45 0.651 .3842741 4.61773
_cons | .0693777 .0459302 -4.03 0.000 .0189539 .2539461
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1 | (base outcome)
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
2 |
colrace |
2 | .9032183 .2397291 -0.38 0.701 .5368708 1.519552
3 | 1.030831 .2955883 0.11 0.916 .5876346 1.808287
|
1.arrested_29 | 4.48e-08 .0002177 -0.00 0.997 0 .
|
colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 | 5.63e+07 2.73e+11 0.00 0.997 0 .
3 1 | 27.65565 136721.8 0.00 0.999 0 .
|
arpre18 | 1.588346 .4864019 1.51 0.131 .8715259 2.894743
smokepre18 | 3.191984 .7097535 5.22 0.000 2.06439 4.935482
family_cat | .794325 .1772092 -1.03 0.302 .5129798 1.229975
usborn | 1.535999 .9698062 0.68 0.497 .4456107 5.294519
_cons | .0565237 .0372706 -4.36 0.000 .0155227 .2058238
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline relative risk for each outcome.
Note: 5 observations completely determined. Standard errors questionable.

. margins colrace##arrested_29

Predictive margins Number of obs = 1,099

Model VCE : OIM

1._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==0), predict(pr outcome(0))

2._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==1), predict(pr outcome(1))

45
3._predict : Pr(smokedif18_ord==2), predict(pr outcome(2))

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.
Interval]
-----------------------------+--------------------------------------------------------
--------
_predict#colrace |
1 1 | .1063269 .0131635 8.08 0.000 .080527
.1321269
1 2 | .0921657 .0167087 5.52 0.000 .0594173
.1249142
1 3 | .0818298 .0193302 4.23 0.000 .0439433
.1197163
|
_predict#arrested_29 |
1 0 | .0923508 .0087415 10.56 0.000 .0752178
.1094839
1 1 | .3395699 .1029841 3.30 0.001 .1377247
.5414151
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |
1 1 0 | .0989974 .0129808 7.63 0.000 .0735556
.1244393
1 1 1 | .4371164 .1807145 2.42 0.016 .0829226
.7913102
1 2 0 | .0860723 .0166892 5.16 0.000 .0533621
.1187826
1 2 1 | .391312 .1804739 2.17 0.030 .0375897
.7450344
1 3 0 | .0839047 .0198111 4.24 0.000 .0450756
.1227338
1 3 1 | 1.61e-07 .0001637 0.00 0.999 -.0003207
.000321
|
_predict#colrace |
2 1 | .7943061 .0171281 46.37 0.000 .7607356
.8278765
2 2 | .812137 .0221125 36.73 0.000 .7687973
.8554767
2 3 | .8140609 .0267766 30.40 0.000 .7615798
.866542
|
_predict#arrested_29 |
2 0 | .806537 .0116733 69.09 0.000 .7836579
.8294162
2 1 | .6238212 .1045592 5.97 0.000 .4188889
.8287534
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |
2 1 0 | .798772 .0171367 46.61 0.000 .7651846
.8323594
2 1 1 | .5628836 .1807145 3.11 0.002 .2086897
.9170774
2 2 0 | .8185065 .0223833 36.57 0.000 .774636
.862377
2 2 1 | .482987 .1863486 2.59 0.010 .1177504
.8482236
2 3 0 | .8089721 .0274225 29.50 0.000 .7552249
.8627192

46
 2 3 1 | .9999997 .0002342 4270.02 0.000 .9995407
1.000459
|
_predict#colrace |
3 1 | .099367 .0126007 7.89 0.000 .0746701
.124064
3 2 | .0956973 .0173049 5.53 0.000 .0617804
.1296142
3 3 | .1041093 .0215357 4.83 0.000 .0619
.1463185
|
_predict#arrested_29 |
3 0 | .1011121 .0090582 11.16 0.000 .0833585
.1188658
3 1 | .0366089 .0349927 1.05 0.295 -.0319755
.1051934
|
_predict#colrace#arrested_29 |
3 1 0 | .1022306 .0129169 7.91 0.000 .0769138
.1275473
3 1 1 | 2.98e-09 .0000145 0.00 1.000 -.0000284
.0000284
3 2 0 | .0954212 .0175348 5.44 0.000 .0610535
.1297888
3 2 1 | .125701 .1184756 1.06 0.289 -.1065069
.3579089
3 3 0 | .1071232 .0221227 4.84 0.000 .0637635
.1504829
3 3 1 | 1.80e-07 .0001675 0.00 0.999 -.000328
.0003284
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

.
.
end of do-file

47