METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

X Y XY X2
1 330,000.00 330,000.00 1.00
2 335,000.00 670,000.00 4.00
3 338,000.00 1,014,000.00 9.00
4 400,000.00 1,600,000.00 16.00
5 452,000.00 2,260,000.00 25.00
6 462,000.00 2,772,000.00 36.00
7 469,000.00 3,283,000.00 49.00
8 498,000.00 3,984,000.00 64.00
9 500,000.00 4,500,000.00 81.00
10 550,000.00 5,500,000.00 100.00
11 560,000.00 6,160,000.00 121.00

66 4,894,000.00 32,073,000.00 506.00

29,799,000.00 24,627.27
B 1,210.00

A
4,869,372.73 811,562.12

Y A+bx 836,189.39 12 811,562.12 respuesta

METODO PORCENTUAL

X Y Δ%=XU-X0/X0
1 350,000.00 0 ∑%
2 355,000.00 35490000% N-1
3 365,000.00 36490000%
 4 392,200.00 39210000%
5 450,000.00 44990000% ×Δ%=
6 461,000.00 46090000%
7 463,000.00 46290000%
8 496,000.00 49590000% XU
9 552,000.00 55190000%
10 569,000.00 56890000%
11 600,000.00 59990000%
0 0%
66 5,053,200.00 2022700

METODO DE INCREMETO ABSOLUTO

X Y ΔVts=xu-x0
1 425,000.00 -
2 426,000.00 1,000.00 ΔVts=xu-x0 = ΣΔVts/N-1
3 428,000.00 2,000.00
4 500,000.00 72,000.00 pronóstico Xu + Δvts
5 550,000.00 50,000.00
6 560,000.00 10,000.00
7 590,000.00 30,000.00 1,000.00
8 599,000.00 9,000.00 2,000.00
9 610,000.00 11,000.00 72,000.00
10 620,000.00 10,000.00 50,000.00
11 700,000.00 80,000.00 10,000.00
66 6008000 275,000.00 30,000.00
9,000.00
11,000.00
10,000.00
80,000.00
total 275,000.00
 5,000.00 0.01 1.43
10,000.00 0.03 2.82
27,200.00 0.07452055 7.45
57,800.00 0.15 14.74
11,000.00 0.02444444 2.44
 2,000.00 0.00 0.43
33,000.00 0.07 7.13
56,000.00 0.11290323 11.29
17,000.00 0.0307971 3.08
31,000.00 0.05448155 5.45
total 250,000.00 0.56 56.26

563% 0.05625881
633,755.28

22,915.67

27,500.00 727,500.00
PRODUCTO ITRIMESTRE IITRIMESTRE
811,562.12 20% 16231242% 30%
633,755.28 12% 7605063% 18%
727,500.00 50% 36375000% 22%
IITRIMESTRE IIITRIMESTRE IVTRIMESTRE TOTAL
24346864% 40% 32462485% 10% 8115621% 100%
11407595% 45% 28518988% 25% 15843882% 100%
16005000% 13% 9457500% 15% 10912500% 100%
 presupuesto de costo de materia prima uti

presupuesto de producción
detalle I TRIMESTRE II TRIMESTRE III TRIMESTRE
PRODUCTO A
1 FINAL 48693.7272 64924.9696 16231.2424
(+) VENTAS 162312.424 243468.636 324624.848
NECESIDADES 211006.1512 308393.6056 340856.0904
(-) I inicial 600 120 300
PRODUCCIÓN 210406.1512 308273.6056 340556.0904
PRODUCTO B
1 FINAL 22815.19008 57037.9752 31687.764
(+) VENTAS 76050.6336 114075.9504 285189.876
NECESIDADES 98865.82368 171113.9256 316877.64
(-) I inicial 1200 960 2400
PRODUCCIÓN 97665.82368 170153.9256 314477.64
PRODUCTO C
1 FINAL 32010 18915 21825
(+) VENTAS 363750 160050 94575
NECESIDADES 395760 178965 116400
(-) I inicial 1500 1650 1485
PRODUCCIÓN 394260 177315 114915

materia prima
materia prima mesa metal silla metal precio unitario
HIERRO 9 15 $ 22.00
MADERA 8 9 $ 33.00
LASTRE 3 6 $ 12.00

presupuesto de consumo y costo de materia prima

DETALLE I TRIMESTRE II TRIMESTRE III TRIMESTRE
PRODUCCION HIERRO 210406.1512 308273.6056 340556.0904
PRODUCCION MADERA 97665.82368 170153.9256 314477.64
PRODUCCION DE LASTRE 394260 177315 114915
ARENA
consumo 1893655.3608 2774462.4504 3065004.8136
consumo 1464987.3552 2552308.884 4717164.6

total consumo lámina 3358642.716 5326771.3344 7782169.4136

precio unitario lámina $ 22.00 $ 22.00 22
subtotal costo lámina 73,890,139.75 117,188,969.36 171,207,727.10

LASTTRE
CONSUMO 1683249.2096 2466188.8448 2724448.7232
CONSUMO 878992.41312 1531385.3304 2830298.76

TOTAL CONSUMO 2562241.62272 3997574.1752 5554747.4832

PRECIO UNITARIO $ 33.00 $ 33.00 $ 33.00
SUBTOTAL COSTO $ 84,553,973.55 $ 131,919,947.78 $ 183,306,666.95

TOTAL COSTO MATERIA PRIMA $ 158,444,113.30 $ 249,108,917.14 $ 354,514,394.04

CEMENTO
CONSUMO 1182780 531945 344745
CONSUMO 2524873.8144 3699283.2672 4086673.0848

TOTAL CONSUMO TUBO 3707653.8144 4231228.2672 4431418.0848

PRECIO UNITARIO $ 12.00 $ 12.00 $ 12.00
SUBTOTAL COSTO $ 44,491,845.77 $ 50,774,739.21 $ 53,177,017.02

TOTAL COSTO MATERIA PRIMA $ 202,935,959.07 $ 299,883,656.34 $ 407,691,411.06

o de materia prima utilizada

n
IV TRIMESTRE TOTAL
A 811562.12
$ 700 700 ITRIMESTRE 811562,12*20%
81156.212 811562.12 IITTRIMESTTRE 811562,12*30%
81856.212 812262.12 IIITRIMESTTRE 811562,12*40%
240 600 IVTRIMESTRE 811562,12*10%
81616.212 940852.0592

2000 2000
158438.82 633755.28
160438.82 635755.28 B 633755.28
1920 1200
158518.82 634555.28 ITRIMESTRE 76050.6336
IITRIMESTRE 114075.9504
500 500 IIITRIMESTRE 285189.876
109125 727500 IVTIRMESTRE 158438.82
109625 728000
1550 1245
108075 726755

C 727500

ITTRIMESTRE 727500
IITRIMESTRE 727500
IIITRIMESTRE 727500
IVTTRIMESTRE 727500

IV TRIMESTRE TOTAL
81616.212 940852.0592
158518.82 726755
108075

734545.908 8467668.5328
2377782.3 11112243.1392

3112328.208 19579911.672
22 12000
 68,471,220.58 430,758,056.78

652929.696 7526816.4736
1426669.38 6667345.88352

2079599.076 14194162.35712
$ 33.00 $ 33.00
$ 68,626,769.51 $ 468,407,357.78

$ 137,097,990.08 $ 899,165,414.57

324225 1851750
979394.544 11290224.7104

1303619.544 13141974.7104
$ 12.00 $ 12.00
$ 15,643,434.53 $ 157,703,696.52

$ 152,741,424.61 $ 1,056,869,111.09
811562.12
162312.424
243468.636
324624.848
81156.212

633755.28

12%
18%
45%
25%

727500

50% 363750
22% 160050
13% 94575
15% 109125