Research Paper PDF

DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS
AMONG VEHICULAR AND DRIVER’S

CHARACTERISTICS WITH TRAFFIC
ACCIDENTS
Year: 2012
QAISER NAHEED HASHMI

2005-Ph.D.-Civil-01
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
LAHORE, PAKISTAN
DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG
VEHICULAR AND DRIVER’S CHARACTERISTICS
WITH TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
Year: 2012
QAISER NAHEED HASHMI

2005-Ph.D.-Civil-01
INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

(Prof. Dr. Tanvir Iqbal Qayyum) (Prof. Dr. Mumtaz Ahmed Kamal)
Chairman, Department of Transportation Dean, Faculty of Civil and Environmental
Engineering and Management Engineering,
University of Engineering and Technology,
Taxila.
CHAIRMAN DEAN
Civil Engineering Department Faculty of Civil Engineering
Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of
Philosophy in Civil Engineering
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
LAHORE, PAKISTAN
Dedicated to
my parents
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
All the praises and thanks to the Almighty Allah, the most gracious and merciful, Who
enabled me with the power and means to contribute a drop to the existing ocean of
knowledge.
I would like to express my heartiest gratitude to Prof. Dr. Tanvir Iqbal Qayyum, who
supervised this research. His knowledge and experience in this field area made this
research a success. Owing to his valuable suggestions and kind supervision this study
owes its existence. The support and encouragement he provided made the years of
research with him enjoyable and memorable.
Profound thanks are due to Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ashraf (Late), Prof. Dr. A.S. Shakir,
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ilyas, Prof. Dr. Aziz Akbar, Prof. Dr. Khalid Farooq, Prof. Dr.
Zulfiqar Ali, Prof. Dr. Afzal Javed, Prof. Dr. Muhammad Waseem Mirza and Dr.
Mubashir Aziz for their constructive guidance, suggestions and cooperation. I thank Prof.
Dr. Khalid Rashid, University of Education, Lahore and Dr. Zahoor Ahmad, University
of Gujrat for their help regarding analysis of data using SPSS software.
I pay credit to Mr. Muhammad Zeeshan for entering the huge amount of data. Thanks are
also due to students of Department of Transportation Engineering and Management for
their help in conducting survey. I am thankful to Mr. Ghulam Rasool: Assistant Chairman
Office, Mr. Muhammad Rafiq: Accounts Assistant, Mr. Muhammad Ilyas: Administrative
Officer Audit for their help regarding administrative and accounts matters.
I could not have achieved this work without the prayers of my beloved parents and my
husband. Their support, love and encouragement are unforgettable. I can not repay the
sacrifices they did during the course of my studies.
Finally, I would like to thank M/s National Engineering Services (NESPAK) and
University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore for the administrative and financial
help for my studies.
Qaiser N. Hashmi
July, 2012
iv
ABSTRACT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
The city of Lahore is the provincial headquarter of the Punjab province. Lahore has
different types of traffic as compared to other cities of Pakistan. The old areas have mixed
traffic and the outskirt areas have fast moving traffic. The main factors for traffic
accidents are roads, vehicles, drivers, external factors and enforcement by traffic police.
The riding quality of roads of Lahore is normal. The external factors such as weather
condition in Lahore are not so severe as to cause accidents. The condition of vehicles
especially public transport fleet, plying on the roads of Lahore, is alarming as periodic
maintenance of vehicles is not frequently carried out. The literacy rate of the country is
also an issue. Most of the drivers, especially drivers of public transport vehicles, are not
educated. They have problems in understanding the traffic rules, signs and signals. In
such a situation their behaviour while driving is unsafe and they come across traffic
accidents associated with human losses, human sufferings and economic losses.
Considering these facts into account it was planned to study the drivers and vehicles
characteristics with special reference to their role towards traffic accidents. The basic
objective of this research was to develop Accident Prediction Models (APMs) relating
number of accidents occurred per year and to know the causes of accidents of different
vehicle types based on the vehicular and driver’s characteristics. By knowing the causes
of accidents, another purpose was to suggest some measures to lessen the number of
accidents.
In this regard, questionnaire/survey forms comprising about 107 vehicular and driver’s
characteristics were prepared after going through the world wide relevant literature.
Seven types of vehicles were selected for the study and for each vehicle type survey was
conducted on different locations of Lahore to collect representative information regarding
vehicular and driver’s characteristics including number of traffic accidents experienced.
The survey locations were chosen on the basis of most probable presence of different
vehicle types within Lahore. The types of vehicles considered for this research study
include Motorcycle Rickshaw (Qingqi), Motorcycle, Passenger Car, Wagon, Bus, Auto
Rickshaw and Pickup. Representative and justified sample sizes were selected using
stratified sampling technique on the basis of number of registered vehicles for each type.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) was used for analysis of the characteristics.
Frequency, correlation and cross-tabulation analyses were conducted for each vehicle.
On the basis of these analyses, the most significant driver’s and vehicular characteristics
contributing traffic accidents were identified for each vehicle type. With these most
significant characteristics, APMs using the multiple linear regression analysis relating the
number of accidents per year were developed for all seven types of vehicles. The APMs
developed can be used to assess the number of accidents per year for seven types of
vehicles on the basis of their vehicular and driver’s characteristics for each vehicle type.
On the basis of developed APMs, it is concluded that the main contributing factors
towards accidents are vehicular and driver’s characteristics. So it is recommended that by
properly addressing the vehicular and driver’s characteristics, incidents of traffic
accidents can be reduced.
vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG VEHICULAR

AND DRIVER’S CHARACTERISTICS
WITH TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. IV
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................ v
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. vii
LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... xii
LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... xv
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................ 1
1.1 GENERAL ......................................................................................... 1
1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH ................................................ 3
1.3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................ 3
1.4 THESIS ORGANIZATION…………………………………. .......... 5
CHAPTER 2. DRIVER'S CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY ......... 7
2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 7
2.2 AN OVERVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH.......................................... 7
2.3 FINALIZATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF DRIVERS FOR
THE STUDY .................................................................................... 12
2.4 SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 14
CHAPTER 3. VEHICULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY .. 15
3.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 15
3.2 AN OVERVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH........................................ 15
3.3 FINALIZATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF VEHICLES FOR
THE STUDY .................................................................................... 18
3.4 SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 21
CHAPTER 4. ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS ....................................... 22
4.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 22
4.2 AN OVERVIEW OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS ............................... 22
4.3 ACCIDENT STATISTICS OF LAHORE ....................................... 25
4.4 POLICE ENFORCEMENT STRATEGIES TO REDUCE TRAFFIC
ACCIDENTS ................................................................................... 25
4.5 DEFINITION OF A VARIABLE .................................................... 30
4.5.1 Types of variables ......................................................................... 30
4.6 DEFINITION OF A MODEL .......................................................... 31
4.6.1 Need for developing models ..................................................... 31
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
4.6.2Mathematical modelss................................................................ 32
4.6.3Selection of the model for the study ........................................ 35
4.7 ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS (APMS) .............................. 35
4.8 SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 43
CHAPTER 5. SAMPLING THEORY .................................................................. 44
5.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 44
5.2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF STATISTICS AND SAMPLING ............. 44
5.3 THE NEED FOR SAMPLING......................................................... 44
5.4 DESIGNING AND CONDUCTING A SAMPLING STUDY ........ 47
5.4.1 The planning stage ........................................................................ 47
5.4.2 The Data collection stage .............................................................. 49
5.4.3 The Evaluation stage ..................................................................... 50
5.5 BIAS AND ERROR IN SAMPLING............................................... 50
5.6 SELECTING THE SAMPLE ........................................................... 51
5.7 SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 52
CHAPTER 6. DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY ........................................................................ 53
6.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 53
6.2 COLLECTION OF DATA ............................................................... 53
6.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ..................................................... 54
6.3.1 Selection of vehicles...................................................................... 55
6.3.2 Preparation of questionnaires/survey forms .................................. 55
6.3.3 Selection of sample size ................................................................ 55
6.3.4 Establishment of survey teams ...................................................... 56
6.3.5 Conduct of survey of vehicles ....................................................... 56
6.3.6 Preparation of coding manual........................................................ 57
6.3.7 Data analyses ................................................................................. 57
6.4 SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 60
CHAPTER 7. DATA ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ACCIDENT
PREDICTION MODEL ................................................................ 61
7.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 61
7.2 ANALYSIS OF DATA .................................................................... 61
7.3 MOTORCYCLE RICKSHAW ........................................................ 62
7.3.1 Survey Locations for Motorcycle Rickshaw ................................. 63
7.3.2 Frequency Analysis and Discussion .............................................. 64
7.3.3 Cross-tabulation Analysis and Discussion .................................... 69
7.3.4 Accident Prediction Model for Motorcycle Rickshaw .................. 71
7.3.5 Verification of accident prediction model for Motorcycle
Rickshaw ....................................................................................... 72
7.3.6 Conclusions from Motorcycle Rickshaw Analysis ....................... 73
7.4 MOTOR CYCLE ............................................................................. 74
7.4.1 Survey Locations for Motorcycle .................................................. 74
7.4.4 Accident Prediction Model for Motorcycle................................... 83
7.4.5 Verification of accident prediction model for Motorcycle ............. 85
7.4.6 Conclusions from Motor Cycle Analysis ...................................... 85
viii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
7.5 PASSENGER CAR .......................................................................... 86

7.5.1 Survey Locations for Passenger Car ............................................. 86
7.5.4 Accident Prediction Model for Passenger Car .............................. 96
7.5.5 Verification of accident prediction model forPassenger Car ........ 98
7.5.6 Conclusions from Passenger Car Analysis .................................... 98
7.6 WAGON .......................................................................................... 98
7.6.1 Survey Locations for Wagon......................................................... 98
7.6.2 Frequency Analysis and Discussion ............................................ 100
7.6.3 Cross-tabulation Analysis and Discussion .................................. 103
7.6.4 Accident Prediction Model for Wagon ....................................... 105
7.6.5 Verification of accident prediction model forWagon .................. 106
7.6.6 Conclusions from Wagon Analysis ............................................. 107
7.7 BUS ................................................................................................ 107
7.7.1 Survey Locations for Bus ............................................................ 107
7.7.4 Accident Prediction Model for Bus ............................................. 114
7.7.5 Verification of accident prediction model for Bus....................... 116
7.7.6 Conclusions from Bus Analysis .................................................. 116
7.8 AUTO RICKSHAW ...................................................................... 117
7.8.1 Survey Locations for Auto Rickshaw ......................................... 117
7.8.4 Accident Prediction Model for Auto Rickshaw .......................... 125
7.8.5 Verification of accident prediction model forAuto Rickshaw..... 127
7.8.6 Conclusions from Auto Rickshaw Analysis ................................ 127
7.9 PICKUP ......................................................................................... 128
7.9.1 Survey Locations for Pickup ....................................................... 128
7.9.4 Accident Prediction Model for Pickup ........................................ 137
7.9.5 Verification of accident prediction model for Pickup .................. 138
7.9.6 Conclusions from Pick up Analysis ............................................ 139
7.10 COMBINED VEHICLES .............................................................. 139
7.10.1 Verification of accident prediction model forCombined
Vehicles ....................................................................................... 142
7.11 FUTURE APPLICATION OF APM FOR MOTORCYCLES IN 2015
USING EXAMPLES ..................................................................... 142
7.12 COMPARISON OF DEVELOPED APM’S WITH PUBLISHED
DATA………………………………………… …………….........146
7.13 SUMMARY ................................................................................... 147
CHAPTER 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................... 148
8.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 148
8.2 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................ 148
8.3 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................... 152
8.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ................ 152
ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 153
Appendix-A1: Data Regarding Accidents Traffic Police .......................................... 158

Appendix-A2: Data Regarding Accidents Rescue 1122 ............................................ 162
Appendix-B1: Data Regarding Number of Registered Vehicles ............................... 165
Appendix-B2: Data Regarding Existing Wagon Routes ........................................... 166
Appendix-B3: Data Regarding Existing Bus Routes ................................................. 172
Appendix-B4: Data Regarding Prohibted Routes for Motorcycle Rickshaw ............ 175
Appendix-C1: Survey Form for Motorcycle Rickshaw ............................................. 176
Appendix-C2: Survey Form for Motorcycle ............................................................. 182
Appendix-C3: Survey Form for Passenger Car ......................................................... 187
Appendix-C4: Survey Form for Wagon .................................................................... 195
Appendix-C5: Survey Form for Bus .......................................................................... 203
Appendix-C6: Survey Form for Auto Rickshaw ....................................................... 211
Appendix-C7: Survey Form for Pickup ..................................................................... 217
Appendix-C8: Output of Different Regression Techniques for Seven Types of
Vehicles 224
Appendix-D1: Survey Location Map for Motorcycle Rickshaw 247
Appendix-D2: Survey Location Map for Motorcycle 248
Appendix-D3: Survey Location Map for Passenger Car .......................................... 249
Appendix-D4: Survey Location Map for Wagon ...................................................... 250
Appendix-D5: Survey Location Map for Bus ............................................................ 251
Appendix-D6: Survey Location Map for Auto Rickshaw ......................................... 252
Appendix-D7: Survey Location Map for Pickup ...................................................... 253
Appendix-E1: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Motorcycle Rickshaw .......... 254
Appendix-E2: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Motorcycle .......................... 255
Appendix-E3: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Passenger Car ...................... 256
Appendix-E4: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Wagon ................................. 257
Appendix-E5: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Bus ...................................... 258
Appendix-E6: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Auto Rickshaw .................... 259
Appendix-E7: Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Pickup .................................. 260
Appendix-F1: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Motorcycle Rickshaw 261
Appendix-F2: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Motorcycle ................ 262
Appendix-F3: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Passenger Car ........... 263
Appendix-F4: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Wagon ...................... 264
Appendix-F5: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Bus............................. 265
Appendix-F6: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Auto Rickshaw .......... 266
Appendix-F7: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Pickup ........................ 267
Appendix-G1 Actual number of accidents per motorcyclist, estimated number
of accidents per motorcyclist,total and average annual number
of accidents commited by 1000 motorcyclists in the year 2015 ........ 268
Appendix-G2 Total and average annual number of accidents commited by 1000
motorcyclists in the year 2006 ........................................................... 289
x
TABLE OF CONTENTS

xi
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1: Contributory factors to vehicle malfunctioning (After Fimi, 2001) .... 16
Table 6.1: Details of registered vehicles, sample size and number of survey ...... 56
locations
Table 7.1: Model summary for motorcycle rickshaw ........................................... 72
Table 7.2 Coefficients (a) for motorcycle rickshaw ............................................ 72
Table 7.3: Model summary for motor cycle.......................................................... 84
Table 7.4: Coefficients (a) for motorcycle ............................................................ 84
Table 7.5: Model summary for passenger car ....................................................... 96
Table 7.6: Coefficients (a) for passenger car ………………………………… 97
Table 7.7: Model summary for wagon ................................................................ 105
Table 7.8: Coefficients (a) for wagon ................................................................. 105
Table 7.9: Model summary for bus ..................................................................... 115
Table 7.10: Coefficients (a) for bus ...................................................................... 115
Table 7.11: Model summary for auto rickshaw .................................................... 126
Table 7.12: Coefficients (a) for auto rickshaw...................................................... 126
Table 7.13: Model summary for pickup ................................................................ 138
Table 7.14: Coefficients (a) for pickup ................................................................. 138
Table 7.15: Model summary for combined vehicles ............................................. 140
Table 7.16: Coefficients (a) for combined vehicles .............................................. 140
Table 7.17: Variables and factors to be applied for future forecasting of
accidents coefficients (a) for combined vehicles .............................. 143
Table 7.18: Calculation of number of accidents for different years ..................... 145
Table 7.19: Number of accidents based on implementation of safety
conditions .......................................................................................... 146
Table 8.1: Accident prediction models for different vehicles ............................. 150
Table 8.2: Accident proportions of most significant vehicular and drivers
characteristics for different vehicles .................................................. 151
xii
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 6.1 Flow diagram of research work ........................................................... 58

Figure 7.1: Front view of motorcycle rickshaw ..................................................... 62
Figure 7.2: Side view of motorcycle rickshaw ....................................................... 63
Figure 7.3 Back side view of motorcycle rickshaw .............................................. 63
Figure 7.4: Relationship between number of accidents and foot brake conditions 70
Figure 7.5: Relationship between number of accidents and hand brake conditions
.............................................................................................................. 70
Figure 7.6: Relationship between number of accidents and availability of musical
instrument ............................................................................................ 70
Figure 7.7: Relationship between number of accidents and accidents in lifetime . 70
Figure 7.8: Relationship between number of accidents and smoking habit of
drivers .................................................................................................. 71
Figure 7.9: Verification of APM for motorcycle rickshaw .................................... 73
Figure 7.10: Relationship between number of accidents and mirror availability..... 82
Figure 7.11: Relationship between number of accidents and indicator condition ... 82
Figure 7.12: Relationship between number of accidents and accidents in life time 82
Figure 7.13: Relationship between number of accidents and smoking habit of driver
.............................................................................................................. 82
Figure 7.14: Relationship between number of accidents and number of cigarettes
per day .................................................................................................. 83
Figure 7.15: Relationship between number of accidents and profession satisfaction
.............................................................................................................. 83
Figure 7.16: Verification of APM for motorcycles .................................................. 85
Figure 7.17: Relationship between number of accidents and presence of any
damage ................................................................................................. 95
Figure 7.18: Relationship between number of accidents and availability of musical
instrument ............................................................................................ 95
Figure 7.19: Relationship between number of accidents and qualifications ............ 95
Figure 7.20: Relationship between number of accidents and accident in life time .. 95
Figure 7.21: Verification of APM for passenger car ................................................ 97
Figure 7.22: Relationship between number of accidents and accidents in life time
............................................................................................................ 104
Figure 7.23: Relationship between number of accidents and availability of Musical
instrument .......................................................................................... 104
Figure 7.24: Relationship between number of accidents and smoking years......... 104
Figure 7.25: Verification of APM for wagons ....................................................... 106
Figure 7.26: Relationship between number of accidents and safety belt ............... 113
Figure 7.27: Relationship between number of accidents and washer conditions ... 113
Figure 7.28: Relationship between number of accidents and presence of damage on
door .................................................................................................... 113
Figure 7.29: Relationship between number of accidents and vehicle check-up..... 113
Figure 7.30: Relationship between number of accidents and accident in life time 114
Figure 7.31: Verification of APM for buses ........................................................... 116
Figure 7.32: Relationship between number of accidents and qualifications .......... 124
xiii
LIST OF FIGURES
............................................................................................................ 124
Figure 7.34: Relationship between number of accidents and improvements in roads
............................................................................................................ 125
Figure 7.35: Relationship between number of accidents and cell phone usage ..... 125
Figure 7.36: Verification of APM for auto rickshaws ............................................ 127
Figure 7.37: Relationship between number of accidents and indicators conditions
............................................................................................................ 136
Figure 7.38: Relationship between number of accidents and age group ................ 136
............................................................................................................ 137
Figure 7.40: Verification of APM for Pickups 139
Figure 7.41: Verification of APM for combined vehicles 141
Figure 7.42: Comparison of annual number of estimated accidents per driver with
factored annual number of accidents per driver for the year 2015 144
xiv
LIST OF ABBRIVIATIONS
LIST OF ABBRIVATIONS
AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics
AIDS Artificial Insemination by Donors
APM Accident Prediction Model
ARU Accident Response Units
ATSB Australian Transport Safety Bureau
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CPM Crash Prediction Model
DFID Department for International Development
ESCAP Economic and Social Development in Asia and the Pacific
ETSC European Transport Safety Council
EU European Union
FC College Foremen Christian College Lahore
GEE Generalized Estimating Equations
GIS Geographic Information System
GLIM Generalized Linear Interactive Model
GNP Gross National Product
Govt. Government
GT Road Grand Trunk Road
IDBRA International Drivers Behaviour Research Association
IST Information Society Technologies, Belgium
LDCs Less Developing Countries
LUMS Lahore University of Management Sciences
M.A.O College Muhammadan Anglo-Oriental College
M/S Messer
Na Expected number of accidents per year
No. Number
NTRC National Transport Research Centre
PMDT Potential Mechanical Defect Test
R. A. Bazar Royal Artillery Bazaar
RTAs Road Traffic Accidents
SARTRE Safe Road Trains for the Environment (transportation project; EU)
Std. Standard
TRL Transport Research Laboratory
UET University of Engineering and Technology
USA United States of America
xv
CHAPTER-1
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 GENERAL
Lahore is the capital of the province of Punjab, and the second most populated city in
Pakistan. As per 1998 census, its population was nearly 6.8 million (Encyclopedia
Wikipedia). As per Government assessment this population has been increased to 10
million in mid 2006 (Encyclopedia Wikipedia). It is the 5th largest city in South Asia and
23rd of the largest cities of the world (Encyclopedia Wikipedia). Food and restaurant
businesses remain open all night long in Lahore. The shopping markets are usually open
late into the night. It is the second largest financial hub of Pakistan (i.e., Karachi being the
first). It has various industrial areas including Kot Lakhpat and Sundar Industrial Estate.
With its expansion, the residential areas are being turned into commercial centres and the
people are constantly moving outwards. With this outward movement of population,
several office buildings and shopping centres have been developed in Liberty Market,
M. M. Alam Road, Jail Road and Main Boulevard. The population living in these areas is
moving into less busy areas which results in several large housing projects in outskirts of
Lahore.
Different modes of transportation plying on the roads of Lahore include Bicycles,

Motorcycles / Scooters, Rickshaws, Motorcycle Rickshaws (Qingqi), Tongas, Pickups,
Passenger Cars, Wagons, Buses. Old areas of Lahore experience mixed traffic whereas in
suburban areas traffic is fast moving.
Analysis of traffic accidents is of the utmost importance to traffic engineers. Every year
more than 1.17 million people die in road crashes around the world (The World Bank
Group). The majority of these deaths about 70% occur in developing countries. 65% of
deaths involve pedestrians and 35% of pedestrian deaths are children (The World Bank
Group). Over 10 million are injured each year (The World Bank Group). It has been
estimated that at least 6 million more will die and 60 million will be injured during the
next 10 years in developing countries unless urgent action is taken (The World Bank
Group). A lot of people die every year in road accidents in Pakistan causing economic
losses in addition to human sufferings. For the prevention of traffic accidents proper
research is required. Most of the accidents result from a combination of several
1
CHAPTER-1 INTRODUCTION
contributing factors, for example, characteristics of vehicle and drivers, violations by

pedestrians, roadway elements, bad weather, etc. (Pignatro, 1973).
In this research work it is attempted to study the effect of different vehicular and driver’s
characteristics on the number of accidents. For this purpose, 107 questions were designed
which can be properly answered in 30 to 45 minutes. Therefore this research work is
aimed at to develop accident linear prediction models for different vehicles relating
vehicular and driver’s characteristics with traffic accidents in Metropolitan Lahore. For
this purpose the following modes of transportation of Metropolitan Lahore were
considered:
• Motorcycle rickshaw (Qingqi)
• Motorcycles / scooters
• Passenger car
• Wagon
• Bus
• Rickshaw
• Pickup
In this research work characteristics of the aforementioned vehicles along with

characteristics of their drivers were studied in detail and the related data were collected. A
statistical analysis of this data was carried out using Statistical Package for Social
Sciences (SPSS) and the most significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics related
with accidents were identified. Relationships of vehicular and driver’s characteristics with
traffic accidents involved / experienced / reported were developed. On the basis of
vehicular and drivers characteristics involved in different models, recommendations are
included for the improvements in traffic movement and hence to lessen the number of
accidents.
2
1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH
The objectives of this research work include:
• To identify the important relevant vehicular and driver’s characteristics causing

traffic accidents in Metropolitan Lahore.
• To develop accident prediction models (APMs) relating number of traffic

accidents occurred per year with vehicular and driver’s characteristics causing
traffic accidents for various types of vehicles.
• To give suggestions, conclusions and recommendations to lessen the number of

traffic accidents on the basis of developed APMs with reference to vehicular and
driver’s characteristics.
1.3 METHODOLOGY
In order to achieve the objectives, the following research methodology was adopted:
• Relevant literature survey through libraries and internet.
• Collection of data regarding different types of vehicles on the roads and routes of
public transport of Metropolitan Lahore.
• Visits to different Road Engineering and Management Agencies and Law

Enforcing Agencies to get related information / data.
• Preparation of the survey forms to collect the data regarding the characteristics of
vehicles and drivers.
• For the development of accident prediction models (APMs) the hypothesis of the
study is as under:
- Accident means collision of a vehicle with another vehicle or some

object.
- Number of accidents per year is taken as dependent variable and

vehicular and driver’s characteristics are taken as independent
variables
3
- The number of accidents per year increases with loose brakes, non-
working indicators, presence of damage signs on the vehicle, non-
availability of back view mirrors, overall unsatisfactory condition of
vehicle, non-working low and high beams, non-working of wind shield
washers, non-working of wind shield wipers, non-working brake
lights, uneven wear of tyres, signs of severe accident intensity on
vehicle, number of accidents in life time, smoking habit of driver,
number of cigarettes per day, availability of musical instrument, dis-
obeying traffic rules, dissatisfaction of profession, fine frequency on
driving offences, illiteracy of driver, rare routine vehicle check up of
vehicle, non-usage of safety belts while driving, age of drivers, marital
status, number of children, monthly income, driving experience, usage
of cell phone while driving etc.
- Other factors contributing to accidents such as road conditions and

external factors are not considered for this study as pavement
condition of roads of Lahore is normal and external factors in Lahore
are not such as to affect more towards accidents.
• Finalization of different survey sites within Metropolitan Lahore for data

collection.
• Establishment of different survey teams, consisting of students of University of

Engineering and Technology, Lahore, to collect the data regarding characteristics
of vehicles and drivers from different sites within Metropolitan Lahore. Every
survey team was consisting of ten members and a team leader.
• Development of the coding manual so that the collected information can be

converted to the digits to form data base for the analysis.
• Statistical analyses of the collected data using software Statistical Package for
Social Sciences (SPSS).
• Identification of significant characteristics of vehicles and drivers contributing to

traffic accidents and hence to develop relationships / models based on them,
termed as accident prediction models (APMs).
4
• Conclusions and recommendations to lessen the number of traffic accidents on the

basis of vehicular and driver’s characteristics were finally developed.
1.4 THESIS ORGANIZATION
The thesis research has been presented through eight chapters. Brief accounts of each
chapter are described as below:
Chapter-1 presents a brief review of the sufferings of the accidents. A brief introduction
of the Lahore city is provided along with its population, dwelling pattern and traffic. The
objectives and methodology of this research are also covered in this chapter.
Chapter-2 reviews the literature available on the characteristics of drivers.
Chapter-3 outlines the literature available on the characteristics of vehicles.
Chapter-4 presents the literature available on the road traffic accidents and accident
prediction models.
Chapter-5 presents a review of the sampling theory. The need for sampling, its economic
benefits and designing and conducting a sampling study are also described in this chapter.
Chapter-6 describes the data collection techniques employed for this research and an
overview of the research.
In Chapter-7, the analyses of the data using the SPSS software are presented. The
accident prediction linear models developed between accidents occurred per year and
vehicular and driver’s characteristics of different vehicles are also given in this chapter.
The discussions on the analyses and developed models are also included in this chapter.
Conclusions and recommendations are given in Chapter-8.
Seven appendices (A, B, C, D, E, F & G) are included in this report. Appendix-A1

presents accidents data collected by Lahore Traffic Police. Appendix-A2 provides details
of accident data collected RESCUE 1122. Appendix-B1 presents data regarding No. of
registered vehicles in Lahore for the year 2004. Appendix-B2 shows data regarding
5
existing wagon routes during 2004 in Lahore. Appendix-B3 exhibits data regarding
existing bus routes in Lahore during year 2004. Appendix-B4 gives detail of prohibited
routes for motorcycle rickshaw in Lahore Appendices C1 to C7 presents survey forms for
seven types of vehicles. Appendix C8 provides output of different regression techniques
for different types of vehicles. Appendices D1 to D7 provide information on selected
survey locations for seven types of vehicles. Appendices E1 to E7 present sample tables
of frequency analysis for seven types of vehicles. Appendices F1 to F7 present sample
tables of cross tabulation analysis for seven types of vehicles. Appendices G1 to G10
present calculation total and average number of accidents using APM for motorcycles by
1000 motorcyclists for ten years from 2006 to 2015.
6
CHAPTER-2
DRIVER’S CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The importance of the role of a driver while driving a vehicle on a road can not be denied.
The driver is not only responsible of his own safety but also for the safety of the
passengers and other road users. This chapter describes a brief review of different
characteristics of drivers studied by different researchers and different agencies with
special reference to their contribution towards traffic accidents and road traffic safety.
Based on the literature available on driver’s characteristics, a list of characteristics of
drivers considered suitable for this study is also presented.
2.2 AN OVERVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH
This section presents an overview of the literature available, both international and local,
on the characteristics of drivers with reference to their accident potential. A brief
description of different studies is given as under:
Singh (2004) carried out an accident study. According to the study a crash can be
considered as a system with its components as driver, vehicle, roadway, and outside.
These components frequently come across each other to create scenarios, one of which
may be converted into a crash scenario. In fact a crash is a consequential outcome of
interactions between two or more of these components. Singh (2004) concentrated on two
of these parameters, i.e., drivers and vehicles and recognized the characteristics that are
contributing to the occurrence of crash scenarios. According to the study, the primary
parameter towards road safety is to “learn from mistakes”. Singh (2004) took eight age
groups for his analysis, A1 (younger than 18), A2 (18 to 24), A3 (25 to 34), A4 (35 to
44), A5 (45 to54), A6 (55 to 64), A7 (65 to 74), A8 (above 74). Vehicle body type was
the main target for the purpose of classification of vehicles. The study outlined that these
factors enabled identification of the hidden parameters that may adversely affect the
driving behaviour of drivers and running of vehicles, resulting in crashes
7
CHAPTER-2 DRIVER’S CHARACTERISTICS
AND ROAD SAFETY
An international survey was carried out in 1978 on the behaviour of car drivers and road
safety (SARTRE, 1994). A number of countries like USSR, South Africa, Yugoslavia,
Spain, France, UK, Sweden, Japan and Germany took part in the survey. In 1988,
Transport Research Laboratory UK made a follow up of the results of the survey
(SARTRE, 1994). The same year, on the suggestion of the International Drivers
Behaviour Research Association (IDBRA), the original survey was repeated (SARTRE,
1994). So for this purpose, the scope of the survey was restricted to only European
countries. The main objective of this new research project was the essential
characterization of the opinions and behaviours of European car drivers in the field of
road safety. To get this objective a questionnaire was prepared and analyzed (SARTRE,
1994). The questionnaire was emphasizing on different behaviours of drivers and
vehicular parameters such as sex, age, family status, education, occupation, seat belt
wearing, law abiding, exposure and engine size and influence of time and duration on the
interview.
Though most of the European drivers (80% to 96%) think that wearing a seat belt
decreases the severe injury risk, yet the actual usage level differs considerably from
country to country (SARTRE, 1994). The general level of enforcement regarding wearing
of seat belt is very low in Europe, i.e., police stopped only 12% of the drivers for not
wearing a seat belt (SARTRE, 1994). European drivers have been categorized based on
their behaviour towards road safety (SARTRE, 1994). One type of drivers is that, who
follow traffic rules except for speed limits. 30% of the total drivers fall within this
category. These drivers mostly obey traffic rules, for example, 80% always use seat belts
in town and 98% always wear seat belts on a long route (SARTRE, 1994). The study
shows that this category of drivers has completed their educations at the age of 16 or 17;
they have higher income level and they are non religious. These drivers do not follow the
statement “When you drive carefully seat belts are not necessary”. They are of the view
that the speed limits in towns are set at appropriate levels but on motorways the speed
limit should be increased as on such roads they are able to drive faster.
The results of this survey show that the drivers become more careful with age; the young
divers have more tendencies to drive faster as compared to older ones. Though this trend
8
AND ROAD SAFETY
exists for both male and female drivers, yet the female drivers do not drive as fast as the
male drivers. As a result, the female drivers never categorize as fast drivers, even when
their age is less than 25 years. On the other hand, the male drivers can be categorized as
fast drivers, even up to the age of 40. Family status also affects driver’s attitude, as the
single drivers tend to be risky drivers and the married drivers are found more careful
drivers. The effect of occupation on driving speed was also studied in this study. The
people having no occupation, i.e., housewives and retired people, tend to be careful
drivers. Students have a tendency to be fast drivers and working class people have a
tendency of driving at intermediate speeds. Effect of education level was also correlated
with driving speed during this study. Lower education level relates careful driving and the
higher education levels are linked with fast but careful driving. Drivers having low
driving exposure levels (less than 5000 km/year) have found to be careful driving
behaviour. The increased driving exposure causes careless driving attitude. People having
cars with big engines, larger than 2000 cc, tend to be fast drivers while people possessing
cars with small engines do not seem to be more careful drivers (SARTRE, 1994).
In a large scale questionnaire study of English motorist, 791 car drivers reported the
number of their recent speeding offences on the basis of their normal and preferred speeds
on four different road types from the residential streets to motorways during the previous
three years. This study reports the variation of their scores of their offences in relation to
their demographic measures, such as, age, sex, social class, household income, domicile,
and with driving measures, such as, driving experience, annual mileage, engine size, age
and car ownership. Results indicated that drivers belonging to higher social class, having
higher income level, living in suburban areas and driving larger engine cars scored higher
for speeding offences (Stradling et al., 2000).
A joint study undertaken in Sweden and Iceland is associated with the influence of
psychological parameters, especially character, individuality and attitudes, on the patterns
of traffic accidents of young drivers. 101 drivers were requested to complete a
questionnaire comprising 206 statements (Briem et al., 1998). This study revealed the
following:
9
AND ROAD SAFETY
Owing to lack of driving exposure, young drivers are more often involved in traffic
accidents.
The considerable differences between the traffic accident and the traffic violations/wrong
doing frequencies of younger and older drivers are largely due to the involvement of a
comparatively small number of individuals.
Young drivers show considerable road safety problems. Death rates due to traffic
accidents are higher in the 15-24 age groups than any other age group. Statistics indicate
that young drivers are at higher danger of injury and death due to traffic accidents on the
road (Williamson, 1999).
A study about risky driving behavior was carried out in Turkey. Risky driving behaviour
terminology is used to explain behaviors, which directly increase accident risk, such as
over speeding or traffic rule violations while driving and behaviours concerned with road
safety. This study mainly focuses the characteristics of drivers affecting traffic accidents
and was carried out in order to show risky driving attitudes impacting the road safety
(Yilmaz et al., 2006).
Smith et al. (2006) studied characteristics of drivers stopped by police in the United
States in 2002. Three types of driver’s characteristics were considered for the study which
include
• Gender (male/female)
• Age (16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-
69, 70-74, 75 or older)
• Race (white, black, Hispanic, other race).
They concluded that driver fatigue is commonly defined in terms of a subjective state
(e.g. tiredness) and/or objective measurable decreased performance (e.g. increased
reaction time). Haworth, et al. (2006) has undertaken a study on the impact of fatigue on
motorcycle riders in Australia and concludes that fatigue in motorcycling has been
usually ignored by road safety practitioners and governments. Currently, researchers do
10
AND ROAD SAFETY
not have enough information required to draw consistent conclusions regarding the
amount of the effects that may give to motorcycle fatigue or resulting traffic accidents.
According to Hour (2007), in Cambodia 92% of road accidents have been caused by road
users who violated the traffic law, for example over speeding, careless driving, getting
drunk while driving etc.
According to Vanderschuren & Jungu (2006), human factors are the cause of 78% road
accidents occurred on roads of South Africa and over speeding are contributing factor in
75% traffic accidents.
Iamtrakul et al. (2003) found that the time of accident occurrence, rider characteristics, and
risk factors such as wearing helmet or drunken drivers could affect the severity of
motorcyclists. Severity of victims could significantly be increased for those motorcyclists
who did not use safety helmet or drunk while riding.
The results of the survey carried out by SARTRE, (1994) shows that there is a great
impact of time and duration on the interview conducted from European drivers. The more
number of no-answers results from long duration interviews. The interviews completing
between 31 to 45 minutes give least number of no-answers. This study further indicates
that the majority of interviews have been conducted in the afternoon (56%). 44% of the
interviews are equally conducted during morning and evening hours. Interviews
conducted during morning and evening hours receive the greatest number of “don’t
know” answers (SARTRE, 1994).
Swati, et al. (1990) carried out a study to analyze the road accidents in Islamabad during
1986 to 1987. The practical implementation of study was to investigate the conditions
under which most of the accident accrued in and around Islamabad with the help of traffic
police and to identify the black spot using a micro-computer. A total of 83 accidents were
reported by the police during 1986 to 1987. Over all the main cause of these 83 accidents
was negligence and carelessness of road users. 66 accidents were caused by the
negligence of drivers, 12 due to negligence of pedestrians and 5 were due to negligence of
other road users.
11
AND ROAD SAFETY
There is a significant involvement of buses in traffic accidents in Pakistan (Downing, et

al. 1987). In order to improve the safety of a major bus operator, over 500 drivers from
Rawalpindi and Islamabad were sent on a five day training course, between 1982-1984.
Particular emphasis was placed on the teaching of drivers. The results of this training
showed that experienced, illiterate and old drivers (age more than 45 years) committed
more accidents.
So far other local studies on the subject are concerned Qayyum (1998, 1999 and 2002)
carried out four studies on characteristics of drivers of cars, wagons and motorcycle
rickshaws in Lahore. He considered more than 50 characteristics of drivers of these
vehicles. He carried out frequency analysis using SPSS software to see the behavior of
drivers towards accidents.
2.3 FINALIZATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF DRIVERS FOR THE STUDY
A review of the characteristics of drivers studied in different parts of the world has been
given in section 2.2. After going through the research conducted by Singh (2004),
SARTRE (1994), Williamson (1999), Stradling et al. (2000), Briem et al. (1998), Swati,
et al. (1990), Downing, et al. (1987), Qayyum (1998), Qayyum (1999) and Qayyum
(2002), the following characteristics of drivers have been selected for this research work:
• Driver Gender
• Nationality
• Marital Status
• Number of Children
• Age Group (Year range)
• Safety Belts
• Occupation
• Educational Qualifications
• Driving Experience in Years
12
AND ROAD SAFETY
• Vehicle Driven per Year in km
• No. of Accidents in Life Time of driver
• No. of Accidents in Last 2 Years of driver
• Physically Fit
• Driver Smoking habit
• Number of Years of Smoking
• Number of Cigarettes/day
• Monthly Income (Rupees)
• Driver License Issued
• Driver License Available at the time of the survey
• Musical Instruments
• Vehicle Route
• Do you posses route permit?
• Do you exceed the speed limit?
• How is the behaviour of police with you?
• Are you satisfied with your profession?
• Amount (Rs.) per month given to Police
• Type of Insurance
• Your driving behaviour in congestion?
• How often you follow traffic rules?
• How many times you have been fined to any offence in driving experience?
• In your view, what type of Improvements should be made?
• Do you have cell phone?
• Do you use cell phone while driving?

13
AND ROAD SAFETY
2.4 SUMMARY
In this chapter work of different researchers on characteristics of drivers has been briefly
described. The influence of attitude of drivers on the road safety has been also presented.
On the basis of the literature available, the characteristics of drivers have also been
finalized for this study.
14
CHAPTER-3
VEHICULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY
3.1 GENERAL
The mechanical fitness of a vehicle is important factor with reference to road safety. The
scenes of any faulty vehicle standing on the sides of roads in Pakistan are very common.
The passengers travelling in such vehicles have to suffer a lot. Some time such vehicles
come across road accidents resulting in life and economic losses. The vehicular
characteristics come under the subject of mechanical fitness of a vehicle. This chapter
describes a brief review of different characteristics of vehicles studied by different
researchers and agencies with special reference to their contribution towards traffic
accidents and road traffic safety. A list of characteristics of vehicles considered for this
study is also presented in this chapter.
3.2 AN OVERVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH
This section presents an overview of the literature available, both international and local,
on the characteristics of vehicles with reference to their traffic accident potential. A brief
description of different relevant research works carried out is given as under:
An accident analysis was undertaken by Information Society Technologies (IST),

Belgium by using an intelligent tyre/wheel system, by which traffic accidents can be
prevented. The study shows that bad road conditions, tyre defects or their combination
play an important role in traffic accidents. Accident analysis indicates that revealing of
bad condition of road is very important from traffic safety point of view. The importance
of road condition can not be denied as it is the most important single factor that may be
the reason for the loss of driving control. For instance, in Germany 55 % of accidents,
producing personal injury, are caused by slippery roads. In time information regarding
bad road conditions to the drivers and to other road users has great possibility in accidents
prevention. With such timely information, drivers have the possibility to modify their
speed and their driving behaviour according to the prevailing conditions (IST, 2001).
15
CHAPTER-3 VEHICULAR CHARACTERISTICS
AND ROAD SAFETY
16 % of all fatal accidents in Finland during the period of 1991-2001 were recorded due
to poor tyre condition. In 66 % tyre related accidents either worn-out tyres or tyres un-
suitable for road conditions were a major contributing factor. Under-inflated tyres were a
contributing factor in 12 % of tyre related accidents. Defective tyres are the main cause in
fatal accidents especially in bad road conditions. As per the federal statistical office in
Germany, defective tyres result about 30 % of all accidents. This discussion indicates the
significance of monitoring of condition of tyres and subsequent detection of defects in
tyres in terms of accident prevention. Accident analysis suggests that by using an
intelligent tyre system number of fatalities can be reduced and hence 4,000 lives can be
saved in European Union countries per annum (IST, 2001).
According to Hour (2007), a study in Cambodia of road safety shows that vehicles have
caused road accident due to poor maintenance by their owners. This aspect caused road
accidents due to one of the factors like failure of brakes, tyre blowout, failure of power
steering, headlight failure etc.
According to Vanderschuren & Jungu (2006), vehicular factors were cause of 10 % road
accidents in South Africa.
Table 3.1: Contributory factors to vehicle malfunctioning (After Fimi, 2001)

Severity of accident
Contributory areas to accidents Total
Fatal Serious Slight
Defective brake 9 52 75 136
Defective tyre 1 11 33 45
Defective steering 1 6 9 16
Defective light (front, rear, brake, indicator) 0 7 17 24
Defective body work 1 3 8 12
Defective suspension 1 0 1 2
Defective vision (glass, windscreen wiper,
0 1 1 2
rear view mirror)
According to Fimi (2001), from the Road Traffic Accident Statistics 1999 of Transport
Department in Hong Kong, out of 19,422 traffic casualties, 217 were fatal and 3,116 were
serious. 2% overall increase in traffic casualties was observed as compared to the
previous year. 19,076 traffic casualties were reported in 1998 of which 222 were fatal and
16
AND ROAD SAFETY
3,626 were serious. The data shown in Table 3.1 was compiled to see the impact of defect
of vehicles on serious traffic accidents. The contributing parameters leading to such
malfunction were not given in the table. The malfunction may possibly be due to poor
maintenance or service carried out by an unqualified mechanic. From table 3.1, it is clear
that the faulty vehicles may be very dangerous and can cause traffic accidents.
Over the past 50 years, motor vehicles have become the primary mode of transportation
in developing countries. Further improvements in automotive engineering and
manufacturing and the process of urbanization have resulted in increase in the quantity of
vehicles on the road with an increase in the speed limit of the vehicles (Van Schoor et al.,
2001). This fact demands the mechanical fitness of the vehicles. In developing countries,
where economic factors force the masses to use of older for their transportation, the
possibility of accidents caused by some type of mechanical malfunction of vehicle
increases. The casualty rate due to road traffic accidents in South Africa is amongst the
highest in the world (Van Schoor et al., 2001). This trend has been present with a small
variation over the years, regardless of the efforts of local road safety organizations and
research institutes to decrease the accidents. The main objective of this study was to find
the contribution of mechanical failures to motor vehicle accidents. Data obtained from
accident response units (ARU) show that tyres and brakes were the main contributory
factors to leading to mechanical malfunctioning resulting in accidents in the Pretoria
region (Gauteng Province). Detailed information on the condition of vehicles on the road
was collected in this area. The road side survey (potential mechanical defect tests
(PMDT)) indicated that 40% of the vehicles surveyed on the suburban road and 29% of
the vehicles surveyed on the highway had mechanical defects and may, therefore, be at
possibility of causing an accident due to a mechanical failure (Van Schoor et al., 2001).
The Minibus (taxi) survey identified irregularities in tyre inflation pressure as a cause of
accidents. This study concludes that tyres and brakes are the two main factors
contributing accidents, with overloading as an additional factor. It is important to
understand that these three factors can easily be monitored during simple roadside
inspections (Van Schoor et al., 2001).
17
AND ROAD SAFETY
Qayyum (1998, 1999 and 2002) conducted four consistent and continuous studies on cars,
wagons and motorcycle rickshaws in Lahore. He studied more than 50 characteristics of
vehicles to carry out frequency analysis to observe the effect of mechanical condition of
vehicles on accidents.
3.3 FINALIZATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF VEHICLES FOR THE STUDY
A brief description of different characteristics of vehicles considered for road safety

studies worldwide has been presented in section 3.2. After going through the research
conducted by IST (2001), Hour (2007), Vanderschuren & Jungu (2006), Fimi (2001),
Van Schoor et al. (2001), Qayyum (1998), Qayyum (1999) and Qayyum (2002) the
following characteristics of vehicles have been finalized for this research work:
• Vehicle type
• Vehicle purpose (use of vehicle as a private or public transport)
• Manufacturer name
• Year of manufacture
• Engine power (cc)
• Vehicle model
• Working of speedometer
• Maximum speed limit (km/hr)
• Working of odometer
• Odometer reading (km)
• Availability of temperature gauge
• Condition of temperature gauge
• Availability of fuel gauge
• Condition of fuel gauge
• Availability of battery gauge
18
AND ROAD SAFETY
• Condition of battery gauge
• Condition of foot brakes
• Condition of hand brakes
• Presence of fire extinguisher
• Presence of reflecting triangle
• Presence of spare tyre
• Presence of tools for changing tyre
• Condition of horn/bell
• Condition of windshield washers
• Condition of windshield wiper
• Type of steering wheel/handle
• Condition of steering wheel
• Presence of right-side mirror
• Presence of left-side mirror
• Presence of inside/middle mirror
• Condition of front parking light
• Condition of rear parking lights
• Condition of low beam
• Condition of high beam
• Condition of front indicators
• Condition of rear indicators
• Condition of brake lights
• Condition of back gear lights
• Condition of left front tyre

19
AND ROAD SAFETY
• Condition of left rear tyre
• Condition of spare tyre
• Condition of right front tyre
• Condition of right rear tyre
• Presence of number plate
• Quality of number plate
• Condition of exhaust sound
• Presence of scratches on glasses
• Presence of scratches on wind screen
• Presence of scratches on back screen
• Presence of scratches on window glasses
• Presence of any damage
• Presence of damage, right side front corner
• Presence of damage, front (hood)
• Presence of damage left side front corner
• Presence of damage right side (doors)
• Presence of damage on roof/top
• Presence of damage left side (doors)
• Presence of damage right side rear corner
• Presence of damage rear (trunk)
• Presence of damage left side rear corner
• Presence of radio
• Presence of cassette player
• Presence of stereo deck

20
AND ROAD SAFETY
• Presence of air-conditioner
• Presence of air-heater
• Overall condition of vehicle
• Periodic fitness/maintenance checkup required for vehicle
• Number of times routine check up of vehicle
3.4 SUMMARY
A brief description studies conducted by different researchers and road safety agencies on
the characteristics of vehicles has been presented in this chapter. The impact of faulty
vehicles on the road safety has been also presented. The characteristics of vehicles to be
considered for this research work have also been selected and presented in this chapter.
The researchers mentioned in Chapters 2 and 3 carried out their study, survey and
research on the basis of collection of general information related to vehicular and driver’s
characteristics. They did not consider the impact of these characteristics on the number of
yearly accidents in the form of any mathematical model. This aspect lead the author to
consider the need to develop an accident prediction model (APM) based on significant
vehicular and driver’s characteristics.
21
CHAPTER-4
ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter describes a brief description of local and international overview of road
traffic accidents and the miseries associated with them. Some of the measures adopted for
reduction of road accidents are presented in this chapter. An overview of accident
prediction models is also included in this chapter.
4.2 AN OVERVIEW OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
Worldwide, it is estimated to be some half a million road accident fatalities each year
(Ghee et al., 1997). Almost 70 per cent of these occur in the developing world. There is a
general decline in the number of fatalities in industrialized countries, while the opposite
trend can be seen in developing and under developed countries. If accident statistics as
rate per registered vehicle is taken as reference, then less developed countries (LDCs)
have this rate at least 10 to 20 times higher than the industrialized countries. The worst
countries in these terms have fatality rates 100 times higher (Ghee et al., 1997). Fouracre
and Jacobs, (1976) showed that the cost of road accidents was equivalent to about one
percent of any country’s Gross National Product (GNP). However at present, it is taken to
be between 1.5 and 2.0 percent. 1 percent figure gives an estimated annual global cost of
road accidents of the tune of US$230 billion, with the cost to LDCs being around US$36
billion, a sum that they can not be able to afford (Fouracre and Jacobs, 1976).
Developing countries are characterized by speedy urbanization, high traffic growth rates,
increasing congestion and decreasing traffic rules of public transport as most of the
inhabitants of developing countries depend on public transport services. The need for
safe, economical and efficient public transport system is indispensable for them.
The Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), funded by the UK Government’s Department

for International Development (DFID) is presently analyzing the safety and road
worthiness of public transport vehicles by evaluating the magnitude of the problem
resulting from road accidents.
22
CHAPTER-4 ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS
The epidemic of road traffic accident deaths and injuries is a worldwide public health
problem. One million people lose their lives each year in road traffic accidents (Abdalla,
2002). Case of severity of injury in road traffic accident evaluated by a number of factors
like human, vehicle, safety measures, environmental and site factors. Age and gender of
the driver have been considered as contributing factors towards accidents. In all accidents,
male drivers usually show a higher involvement in fatal accidents (Valent et al., 2002).
Median aged drivers showed a lower possibility of involvement in serious or fatal
accidents as compared to young and old drivers (Hijar et al., 2000). Kim et al. (2005)
showed that seat-belt usage and the impact of alcohol and drug use had important relation
with accident severity. Azmani et al. (2005) carried out a study in Malaysia to find factors
affecting the severity of injuries of road traffic accidents (RTAs) cases during festive
seasons in Kelantan. The study was based on daily accidents data. In this study the data
analysis was carried out using SPSS software. In this study the multivariate stepwise
logistic regression was carried out to identify important factors determining injury
severity.
Fatal road traffic accidents are a chief cause of deaths in Turkey (Yilmaz et al., 2006).
According to Road Traffic Accident Statistics 2002 data, more than four lacks traffic
accidents occurred in Turkey (Yilmaz et al., 2006). This report showed that 5,000 people
died while 100,000 were injured and in monetary terms these losses cost about US$ 3
billion to the Turkish economy in 1999. Rates of involvement of different types of
vehicles are: 65% for cars, 19% for trucks, 5% for buses and 2% for bicycles or
motorcycles and rates of distribution of killed drivers in these accidents are 53%, 18%,
3% and 15%, respectively. This is a major concern to public health (Yilmaz et al., 2006).
In actual, this data does not show real figures, rather it depicts only 50% of the real
quantity. These figures are very high as even in this world where so much loss is not
reported in cases of wars and natural disasters (Yilmaz et al., 2006). The last 30 years
traffic accident death rates showed a steady decrease in the industrially developed
countries. In England death rate for 100 million vehicles per mile in 1970 was 6.09, in
1985 was 2.68 and in 2001 further decreased to 1.21. These figure for Sweden are
reported as 5.67, 2.37 and 1.34 respectively; and for the USA they are 5.67, 2.37 and 1.34
respectively. In 2001 for Turkey this rate is 11.74. This figure is very large as compared
23
to the aforementioned countries, showing the significance of the issue and requires proper
action to resolve the issue (Yilmaz et al., 2006).
Over the last five years, road deaths in Australia have decreased by an average 2.1% per
annum; nevertheless, an average annual increase of 4.1% in motorcycle related fatalities
has been seen for the same duration [ATSB (Australian Transport Safety Bureau) , 2006).
Fatality rate for motorcyclists observed was 14% of the national road toll in Australia in
2005 (ATSB, 2006) against only 3% motorcycles of all registered motor vehicles [ABS
(Australian Bureaue of Statistics), 2005]. These figures are alarming and require further
investigation into the factors contributing to motorcycle accidents (Haworth et al., 2006).
European Transport Safety Council’s (ETSC) general reports on European Union (EU)
road casualties show that every year more than 40,000 EU citizens are killed and over 3.5
million are injured in traffic accidents. Finances of over 166 billion Euros are involved
for these accidents and are the chief cause of death and hospital admission for citizens
under 45 years (IST, 2001).
According to UN ESCAP Report in 2004, the road accidents are an increasing global
issue as they involve around 1 million deaths and over 23 million injuries per year (Hour,
2007). Further about 85% of these deaths are occurred in developing countries. The is a
big issue for developing countries as the Asia-Pacific region already contributes 44% of
worldwide road deaths while it contains around 16% of global motorized vehicle fleet
(Hour, 2007). In particular, in the Kingdom of Cambodia, the annual number of
motorized vehicles has been increasing. Although the Royal Government has been
making hard efforts to improve its road infrastructure, yet road accidents have been
increasing at a very high rate (Hour, 2007). In the Kingdom of Cambodia, road accidents
are being considered as the second biggest disaster after AIDS producing economic losses
and hence affecting Government Poverty Reducing Policies (Hour, 2007). Annual
population growth rate in Cambodia is 2.49. This study indicates that during 2004 to
2006, on average road traffic accidents caused 3 to 4 deaths per day and more than 100
serious injuries daily along with a number of orphans, crippled people and widows (Hour,
2007).
24
Iamtrakul et al. (2003) carried out an unconventional study to analyze the motorcycle
accident problems in Khon Kaen, Thailand. Motorcycle accident information was
collected through the Khon Kaen Hospital’s Trauma Registry Records and the obtained
information was utilized to find the parameters contributing to high motorcycle accident
rate. On the basis of findings, this study provides a systematic tool for motorcycle
accident analysis by incorporating probability of survival model in GIS based accident
data management system.
4.3 ACCIDENT STATISTICS OF LAHORE
The accident data of Lahore has been obtained from Police Headquarter (Years 2005-
2008) and Rescue 1122 (Year 2007-2008) and annexed as appendix-A of this thesis. The
accident data from two sources only provides the general information about the number
of accidents occurred by different vehicles in different zones of Lahore. The information
about the location, time, types of accident (for example head on collision etc.), vehicles
involved in the accidents, extent of vehicular damage, loss of lives, and etc., is not
available in both types of accident data. The available information can not be used for
this research work.
4.4 POLICE ENFORCEMENT STRATEGIES TO REDUCE TRAFFIC

ACCIDENTS
Police enforcement plays a vital role towards reduction of road traffic accidents. Police
have to do hard efforts to save the losses that occurred due to road accidents. Initially the
traffic police try to educate people towards road safety, warn drivers to obey the traffic
regulations and lastly they have to impose heavy fines to drivers failing to obey the traffic
regulations. In this section, brief information on the international and local police
reinforcement strategies and studies is given.
In 2002, there were a total of 192.7 million drivers in the USA, viz., about 89% of the
215.5 million US residents of 16 years of age or more. About 9% of these drivers were
stopped by police at least once in 2002. The types of vehicles stopped included
motorcycles, buses, private and commercial cars and trucks including both personal and
business travel (Smith et al., 2006). The proportion of male drivers stopped was more as
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compared to female drivers and more young drivers were stopped for some offence than
their older counterparts. More white drivers were stopped for speeding than black ones
(Smith et al., 2006).
According to ETSC (1999), the amount of road fatalities in the fifteen countries of the
European Union (EU) was of the tune of 42,000 in 1996. The annual number injured
people are at least 3.5 million. In all EU countries, the main cause of deaths of people
aged 45 or below is road accidents resulting a total socio-economic cost of about 160
billion Euros. A huge amount of these accidents is because one or more traffic offences
and overall traffic violations are the main contributory factor so far as road accidents
resulting into casualties, injuries and vehicle losses. However, a relatively less efforts are
being made to check road users from committing violations. While traffic violations are
on rise. Although a lot of research and experimentation have been carried over the years
towards maintaining road safety, yet the same could not have been resulted into effective
strategies creating a change in road user behaviour, reducing accident risk or injury
severity. On the other hand, evidence of significant reduction in road traffic causalities in
Europe is present when effective policing enforcement was carried out. The traffic
enforcement could more useful if it is made a part of a road safety approach and
information and engineering measures are considered its vital parts.
According to ETSC, (1999) the main objective of traffic regulation enforcement is the
achievement of road traffic safety by abstain road users from committing violations
leading to road accidents and injuries. The aim of traffic regulation enforcement is to
optimize the road traffic safety and not to maximize the number fines. The offences of
excess speed, drugs, fatigue, safety belt use and right of way were the main factors
considered in the study as usual. However, at the same time, there are other important
violations in road safety terms which have yet to be made part of the priority areas in
police enforcement work. For instances, overtaking offences, failure to observe red lights
or pedestrian lights and keeping short distances from the forward vehicle significantly
increase the risk of accidents. All these types of behaviours require to be addressed
effectively. The effectiveness of traffic law enforcement mainly depends on the efficiency
of the legal system.
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In several European countries automatic detection and registration are employed for
traffic violations such as over speeding and red light running as these strategies are cost-
effective. Another strategy may be the provision of such devices in the vehicles. A
number of such projects carried out in Europe have shown that the use of such devices is
feasible.
Swati (1979) has carried out a study on traffic enforcement plan for Rawalpindi-
Islamabad. A plan was made to implement the traffic police enforcement in the twin
cities. The plan was prepared on the principle of selective enforcement of traffic
violations which result in traffic surveillance in and around the twin cities. The entire area
of twin cities was divided in sectors, which was patrolled by mobile units as well as on
foot. Arrangements were made for traffic safety instructions to be delivered at various
schools by traffic police. The objective of the plan was to reduce the accidents and check
traffic indiscipline prevailing in the city by ensuring effective enforcement. Before
implementations of plan, selected traffic police was given 25 days training. The traffic
police was instructed to check and prosecute different traffic violations, viz., signal
violation, sop sign violation, violation while entering a major road, speed limit violation,
changing line without indicator, changing lane violation, overtaking violation, distance
between two vehicles rule violation, one-way violation, obstructing traffic, improper
turning, night light not on and failure to give way to traffic approaching from the right
while entering a roundabout. The whole plan was implemented by traffic police checking
at fixed points, mobile patrolling at day time, and mobile patrolling at night. An excellent
improvement in the traffic disciplines and reduction in accident numbers was achieved
indicating that the present traffic system is lacking due to lack of proper police
enforcement.
Swati (1980) undertook a study regarding real problem of highway safety in Pakistan,
taking main focus on drivers, drivers training, drivers testing, vehicles, road user
behaviour, traffic police, traffic police training, road signs and signals and enforcement.
According to him, the highway safety in Pakistan has been deteriorating steadily during
last three decades due to ignorant of drivers and road users, ineffective traffic
enforcement, lack of training of traffic police and outdated traffic regulations.
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Swati et al. (1980) has carried out a study in 1978 on psychological attitudes towards
highway safety and reports that the only reason for majority of the road accident and
traffic violation careless driving, lack of awareness and knowledge of road signs and
signs and very weak enforcement.
Swati (1981) carried out a study on the effect of enforcement on road user’s behaviour.
Traffic in Pakistan is one of the most chaotic and in disciplined among other developing
countries. Motor vehicle accidents killed more than 3,500 people in Pakistan in 1979. The
problem resulting from haphazard flow of traffic are not confined to accidents alone, but
results clogged streets and congested roads on business, health, economy and general well
being of community. The study was restricted to cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad and
was carried out during February-April 1980. The study area was divided into sectors. All
road section and intersection were identified and patrolled by mobile units as well as on
foot. In order to quantify the result of the study, violations relating to speed, stop sign,
one way, turning, queuing, lighting, signals were included in the study and their quantities
were measured before and after the enforcement. The enforcement showed and proved a
considerable and marked reduction in all the above listed violations expect one way
violations as for one way violations mostly people gave reasons: “I was going this way
while the u turn opening was on that side, the road on the other side was little rougher, I
live on this side of the road therefore I come down this side, I was in hurry, I have been
doing it for years and nobody has stopped me, everybody does it”. Swati (1981)
concluded that enforcement is the cheapest, quickest and most effective method to control
traffic problems.
Khan (1990) has carried out a study on road safety education campaign. The objective of
this campaign was to improve the knowledge of public about traffic rules, motivate the
public to abide by traffic law and traffic signs, to realize the people that a little ignorance
can produce a great loss of life or property, to teach the general road users about the
adoption of measures for road safety. He suggested that such campaigns should be
arranged periodically, emphasis should be given to invite attention of school children on
traffic issues and traffic police authorities should arrange periodic lectures in school to
teach basic traffic rules to school children.
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Khan (1991) has carried out a study on traffic regulation at schools. Children up to age of
12 are at greater risk of road accidents. Many factors contribute to child accident, such as
poor knowledge about the ways to use road; inadequate parental supervision, lack of
proper training, absence of safe crossing facilities and poor judgments. To alleviate
problem, NTRC in collaboration with traffic police and school administration obtained
addresses of school children’s parents from school and letter were sent to parents, asking
them to co-operate in the interest of the safety of kids. As expected, there was no response
of letter to parents. So in the next step with the help of traffic police, double parking and
u-turns in the vicinity of the school were prevented with the help of traffic police. The
rules were enforced without any discrimination, using the policy of persuasion and
penalty. On the 3rd day, the problem was brought under control and the road cleared for
smooth and unhindered flow of through traffic. The total cost of aver all project was only
Rs. 1600/- which was mailing charges for letters to parents. In this report NTRC tried to
establish that education plays a role in improving the traffic flow and reducing the road
accident. Also the existing system/ infrastructure are good enough for the existing traffic.
The only problem of haphazard traffic was due to the lack of enforcement.
Alvi (1984) has conducted a study on traffic accidents in Bahawalpur. Traffic study for
1977-1978 in Bahawalpur reveals that accident statistics as 1977, 29 fatal, 72 non fatal
and 1978, 28 fatal and 107 non fatal. He reports that 73% of the accidents were caused
due to rash and negligent driving, 19% due to overtaking, 4 % due to bad road condition
and 4 % due to mechanical failures. He further reports that 163 vehicles involved in
accidents were driven by drivers not having license. He recommended that to avoid rash
and negligent driving the wages of the drivers should be fixed restricting the number of
hours in a day, municipal bodies should arrange proper bus stops and highway crossing
provision for pedestrians, proper check on the license and effective traffic police
enforcement should be ensured.
Downing et al. (1983) has carried out a study on road accident in Pakistan. In 1981 the
overseas unit began a programme of research in collaboration with National Transport
Research Centre (NTRC), Islamabad to identify the priority areas for research. For this
purpose, it was necessary to obtain an understanding of Pakistan road accident problem
29
by examining the available accident data in detail. For comparative study, United
Nation’s statistical and demographic year book transport Bulletins were employed. More
detailed data were taken from Accident Study Punjab and from unpublished police
reports. The reports show that fatality rate of accidents / million vehicle km for Punjab
was 16 times higher than for the United Kingdom. Countries with lower levels of vehicle
ownership have higher fatality rate. Pakistan fatality rate is higher, one would expect
from its vehicle ownership levels, buses are more involved in accidents; drivers are
involved in more than 95% of accidents being the main cause of accident. There is an
immense need for the retraining courses for the drivers including skill of driving
operation and awareness of road marking and road signs, traffic police need trainings on
traffic issues and enforcement is lacking in Pakistan.
The above mentioned international and local experiences show that proper enforcement of
traffic laws and regulations are the key factors in order to address the road safety in its
true spirit.
4.5 DEFINITION OF A VARIABLE
Variables are properties or characteristics of some event, object or person that can take on
different values or amounts during the course of study. Number of accidents, size of a
household, condition of a vehicle can be termed as variables.
4.5.1 Types of Variables
The variables are categorized as under:

• Independent and Dependent variables
• Qualitative and Quantitative variables
• Discrete and Continuous variables
The above mentioned categories of variables are described as under:
a) Independent and Dependent variables
An independent variable is a parameter that can be varied or manipulated in a process. It
usually affects the other parameters. In this study vehicular and driver’s characteristics
like horn condition, foot brake condition, damage signs on vehicles, educational
qualification of a driver, number of children of a driver etc. are independent variables.
30
A dependent variable is a parameter that is measured during a process. The dependent

variable depends upon the independent variable. In this study number of accidents is
dependent variable.
b) Qualitative and Quantitative variables
Variables that express a qualitative characteristic are called qualitative variables. The
values of a qualitative variable do not imply a numerical ordering rather they are simple
categories. Qualitative variables are sometimes referred to as Categorical Variables. In
this study, characteristics of vehicles and their drivers like condition of foot brakes
(working, non-working), educational qualification of a driver (illiterate, primary, matric,
intermediate, graduate, post graduate) are quantitative variables. Variables that are
measured in terms of numbers are called Quantitative or Numerical Variables. In this
study, characteristics of vehicles and their drivers like odometer reading (km) and number
of accidents in driving exposure of a driver are quantitative variables.
c) Discrete and Continuous variables
Variable with possible scores of detached/distinct points on the scale are called discrete
variables. In this study number of accidents during last two years is a discrete variable.
Variables for which the scale is continuous and not made up of detached steps are called
continuous variables. For example, in this study odometer reading (km) is a contineous
variable.
4.6 DEFINITION OF A MODEL
A model can be defined as a simple theoretical representation of a complicated process. A

model basically represents a relationship/equation between one dependent variable and
one or more independent variables.
4.6.1 Need for Developing Models
The general purpose of developing models is to study about the relationship between one
or more independent variables and a dependent variable. Once the relationship has been
determined, assessment of dependent variable can easily be made on the basis of variation
of independent variables. In the social and natural sciences modeling techniques are very
widely used in research as these allow the researchers to answer the best estimates of the
dependent variables with reference to independent variables.
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4.6.2 Mathematical Models
There are a number of modeling techniques to develop the required relationship between
two or more variables. Some of such mathematical models are listed below (Hill et al.,
2007):
(i) General regression models
(ii) General linear models
(iii) Generalized linear models
(iv) Generalized additive models
The above mentioned models are briefly described as under:
(i) General regression models (GRM)
The values of the independent variables in an analysis express the differences between
the n valid cases that are analyzed. Regarding the nature or type of independent variables,
models/equations comprising only qualitative independent variables are termed as
analysis of variance (ANOVA) and models containing only quantitative independent
variable are defined as regression models. Further models/equations comprising both
qualitative (categorical) and quantitative (numerical) continuous independent variables
are termed as analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) models. There may be one independent
variable or several independent variables involved. Regression analysis involving only a
single independent variable is referred as a simple regression and employing several
independent variables are termed as multiple regression.
Simple regression models employ a single continuous (quantitative) independent variable.

The regression equation will be:
Y = b0 + b1X
If the simple regression model is having a higher-order effect of X, assuming the
quadratic effect, the regression equation would be:
Y = b0 + b1X2
Multiple regression models containing n continuous quantitative independent variables of
the first order form will be:
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Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2+… + bnXn

Factorial regression models are like factorial ANOVA models where arrangements of the
levels of the factors are given in the model. Factorial regression models are defined as
models where all possible products of the continuous quantitative independent variables
are represented in the model. For two continuous quantitative independent
variables X1 and X2, the full factorial regression would be of the form
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X1*X2
(ii) General linear models (GLM)
The general linear model can be considered as an extension of linear multiple regression.
However, it differs from linear multiple regression. Firstly general linear model differs
from the multiple regression model in regards of the number of dependent variables that
can be analyzed. Secondly the general linear model differs from the multiple
regression model that it facilitates to provide a solution for the normal equations when
the X variables are not linearly independent.
Unlike the multiple regression model, the general linear model is often employed to
analyze any ANOVA model with qualitative (categorical) independent variables and any
ANCOVA model with both qualitative (categorical) and quantitative (numerical)
independent variables being taken in one equation or relationship.
The general linear model is expressed as

Y = ∑ ai Ci + ∑ bi Ni
where, Y = A dependant variable
Ci = Categorical variables
Ni = Numerical variables
ai = a constant
bi = a constant
Some of the common general linear models are described as under:

A model with a single qualitative independent variable is called a one-way ANOVA
model. Main effect ANOVA models comprise two or more qualitative independent
variables. Factorial ANOVA models comprise X variables representing combinations of
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the levels of two or more qualitative variables. Simple regression models contain a single
continuous quantitative independent variable.
(iii) Generalized linear models (GLZ)
The Generalized Linear Model (GLZ) is an overview of the general linear model. In its
simplest form, a linear model states the linear relationship between a dependent variable Y
and a set of independent variables X's, so that
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn
In this equation b0 is the regression coefficient for the intercept and the bi values are the
regression coefficients (for variables 1 through n) computed from the data.
The generalized linear model differs from the general linear model. First, the distribution
of the dependent variable can be explicitly non-normal and does not have to be
continuous, viz., it can be binomial, multinomial or ordinal multinomial . Secondly, the
values of the dependent are assessed from a linear combination of independent variables,
which are joined to the dependent variable via a link function.
In the general linear model a dependent variable Y is linearly related with values on
the X variables by
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn + e
(where e stands for the error variability that cannot be accounted for by the independent
variables; note that the expected value of e is assumed to be 0), while the relationship in
the generalized linear model is assumed to be
Y = g (b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn )+ e
where e is the error, and g(…) is a function. Formally, the inverse function of g(…),
say f(…), is called the link function; so that:
f(muY) = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn
where muY stands for the expected value of Y.
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(iv) Generalized additive models (GAM)
Generalized Additive Models allow choosing from a large variety of distributions for the
dependent variable and link functions for the effects of the independent variables on the
dependent variable.
The idea of additive models can be combined with generalized linear models to derive the
concept of generalized additive models, as:
gi(muY) = Σi(fi(Xi))
The objective of generalized additive models is to optimize the quality of forecasting of a
dependent variable Y from various distributions by estimating non-parametric functions
of the independent variables which are combined to the dependent variable via a link
function.
4.6.3 Selection of the Model for the Study
After going through different modeling techniques described in section 4.6.2 and
considering the type of independent variables (vehicular and drivers characteristics
contributing to accidents, viz. a combination of quantitative and qualitative variables) and
the dependent variable (number of accidents per year), the Linear Multiple Regression
Model (General Linear Regression Model) [Chatterji, (1999); Gujarati, (2003); Salvator,
et al., (1982)] of the following form has been selected for this research work:
Na = ∑ ai Vi + ∑ bi Di (4.1)
where, Na = Total number of accidents per year.

Vi = vehicular significant characteristic.
ai = a constant to be determined using regression analysis.
Di = driver’s significant characteristic.
bi = a constant to be determined using regression analysis
i= 1, 2, 3, …, n.
4.7 ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS (APMs)
Accident prediction models (APMs) are very useful tools for estimating the expected
number of accidents on entities such as intersections and road sections. These estimates
35
are typically used in the identification of sites for possible safety improvement and in the
process of such improvements. An APM is, in essence, a mathematical equation that
expresses the average accident frequency of a site as a function of traffic flow and other
site characteristics (Lord et al., 2000). The reliability of an APM estimate is enhanced if
the APM is based on data for as many years as possible especially if data for those same
years are used in the safety analysis of a site. With many years of data, however, it is
necessary to account for the year-to-year variation, or trend, in accident counts because of
the influence of factors that change every year. To capture this variation, the count for
each year is treated as a separate observation. Unfortunately, the disaggregation of the
data in this manner creates a temporal correlation that presents difficulties for traditional
model calibration procedures. An application of generalized estimating equations (GEE)
procedure to develop an APM that incorporates trend in accident data is presented. Data
for the application pertains to a sample of 4-legged signalized intersections in Toronto,
Canada for the years 1990 to 1995. The GEE model incorporating the time trend is shown
to be superior to models that do not accommodate trend and/or the temporal correlation in
accident data (Lord et al., 2000).
Lord et al., (2000) worked on the model for accident prediction at intersections and
proposed Eq. 4.2 as under:
lnE = ln α + β1 lnF1 + β2 lnF2 (4.2)
where, E = the expected number of accidents per unit of time;
F1, F2 = the entering flows (e.g., vehicles/day, vehicles/hour) on the major and
minor roads respectively;
α, β1, β2 = coefficients to be estimated by the maximum likelihood procedure using

a variant of the Newton-Raphson method.
Kim et al., (2005) developed an accident prediction model at four legged signalized
intersections in Seoul City to control random and local characteristics of accident. The
first step was to classify and analyse the factors of accidents, and construct raw accidents
data as an ordinal category. This step was done to make the structure of accidents data to
36
include random characteristic, and the next step was to make a prediction model using
Generalized Log-linear models. The APM developed had the form as given in Eq. 4.3:
lnYi = β (Xi), i = 1,2,3,..,n (4.3)
where,
Yi= Number of accidents for combination i,
Xi= Independent variables i,
β= Parameters in formula measure relation in Xi and display degrees of

explanation power about accidents.
Uçar et al., (2007) developed a model for bus accidents in Turkey relating effects of
specific locations of accidents, accident time, weather conditions, direction of vehicle
movement and educational level of the driver with the severity of vehicle damage.
Rokade et al., (2010) have made an attempt to develop Accident Prediction Model (APM)
using multiple regression analysis to take curative actions in advance by studying future
tendency, to take improvement actions to lessen the accident rates to a certain level and to
take other protection measures. An Accident Model is in general an equation relating a
dependent variable with numerous independent variables, each of which is assigned a
constant value. The dependent variable in an APM is the number of accidents, while the
independent variables may be numerical variables such as road cross-section dimensions,
horizontal curvature, traffic volume, speed and categorized variables such as type of
terrain, road shoulder, median vehicular characteristics and driver’s behaviour. The
dependent variable used in the model is number of accidents, while independent variables
used are road cross-section dimensions, traffic volume, speed, road shoulder width,
lighting conditions, traffic signs and traffic signals. The errors are also calculated and the
strength of the model is checked by determining the coefficient of determination, R2. The
results show that R2 value lies between 0 and 1 and the model holds good fit if R2 value
comes close to 1 (Rokade et al., 2010).
The last decade has seen significant development in methods for establishing relations
between accidents, flows and road or junction geometry. The technique of generalized
linear models has been becoming increasingly accepted as it provides the most suitable
37
procedure for the analysis of multiple covariate data (where number of independent
variables is more than one). Such models have been effectively employed in the series of
major junction accident studies conducted over the last decade by the U.K. Transport
Research Laboratory (Saccomanno et al., 1988).
Statistical models have often been employed in highway protection studies, including
developing relationships between variables, monitoring covariates and estimating values.
Linear models have been the most general type of models used by transportation safety
analysts, when there are co-variants, viz., more than one independent variables (Xie et
al., 2007).
Like other statistical models, APMs are developed by drawing conclusion about a
relationship between a dependent variable and a series of independent variables. APMs
have the following form:
E= f (xi, βi) (4.4)

where,
E= expected number of accidents per unit of time,
xi = a series of covariates,
βi = coefficients to be estimated
Equation 4.4 is used to estimate the number of accidents per unit of time on a given
transport facility. The basic objective of above equation is to determine the value of the
coefficients, βi, associated with the independent variables. These coefficients are
predicted by linear models through regression (Lord, 2000).
Ackaah et al., (2011) conductive a study to develop an APM for road traffic crashes
occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. Crash
Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used in general as a useful tool by Transport
Engineers and Planners. Before this work, no study on the CPMs is available on rural
highways in Ghana. CPM was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural
highways in the region spanning over a three year period (2005-2007). Data from 76 rural
highway sections was collected and each section ranged from 0.8 km to 6.7 km. For each
38
section data regarding injury crashes, traffic flow, speed, roadway characteristics and road
geometry were collected. The generalized linear model was used to predict the model
parameters. Transport Engineers and Planners can use CPMs as a tool in safety
improvement works and in the design of safer roads. (Ackaah et al., 2011).
For linear regression models, the coefficient of determination, R2, is the most frequent
parameter for predicting the quality of the given model and its value ranges between 0
and 1. An R2 value near zero shows a weak linear relationship between the dependent and
independent variables and a value of R2 near one shows a strong linear fit (Garber et al.,
2000).
R2 is a useful parameter for fitness of linear regression models. A low value of R2 may
not infer that the model is not a good fit for the data, but that there is not a linear
relationship between the dependent and independent variables and another functional
form (logarithmic, exponential) or distribution (Poisson, negative binomial) should be
employed. It infers that a linear model with suitable R2 value can be regarded as a good
model fit (Campbell, 2004).
Andew et al., (1998) used data collected from the states of Minnesota and Washington on
rural two-lane highways to develop APMs for three-legged and four-legged intersections.
Variables comprise traffic, horizontal and vertical alignments, lane and shoulder widths,
roadside hazard rating, channelization and number of driveways. APMs developed are of
linear negative binomial and extended negative binomial regression form and yield
R2 values ranging from 0.42 to 0.73 (Andrew et al. 1998).
Karim et al., (2006) carried out a study to compare two types of regression techniques, the
traditional linear negative binomial and the modified negative binomial, using a sample of
accident, volume, and geometric data corresponding to 392 arterial segments in British
Columbia, Canada. The comparison between the two techniques with special reference to
their goodness of fit and identification of accident-prone points is carried out. Both
models appear to fit the data well (Karim et al., 2006).
Kulmala, (2004) carried out a study using APMs for the safety of junctions of the main
road. The districts of the Finnish Road Administration prepared an inventory of 2,700 at
39
level junctions of major roads in the summer of 1988. The number of police-reported
accidents and of their victims in 1983-1987 was studied using APMs. Further separate
APMs for 915 three-arm and 847 four-arm junctions were developed using the technique
of generalized linear models with an objective to predict the expected number of
accidents (Kulmala, 2004).
Persaud et al., (1993) conducted a study for the development of APMs using linear
modeling technique for freeway accident potentials in terms of the quantity and severity
of these accidents and the associated blockage. Some difficulties with available modeling
techniques were also studied (Persaud et al., 1993).
Greibe (2003) carried out a study to develop APMs using generalized linear modeling
technique to assess the expected number of accidents at 1036 urban junctions and 142
km road links. The basic objective was to identify parameters affecting road safety and
identification of ‘black spots’ (Greibe, 2003).
Tarek et al., (1999) carried out a study to develop APMs for predicting the safety of urban
un-signalized intersections. The APMs were developed using the generalized linear
modeling technique with an objective to tackle and overcome the weaknesses related to
conventional non linear regression techniques (Tarek et al., 1999).
In developing APMs of traffic accidents, flow and roadway design using linear regression
technique, the R2 value has been used for a long time to determine the overall quality of
the model and to select variables for inclusion in the model (Miaou et al., 1996).
A number of APM’s for predicting the number of accidents in planning zones in the city
of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in terms of zonal parameters were developed using a
generalized linear modeling technique. The regression models were developed for total
accidents as well as for severe (fatal and nonfatal injury) accidents relating socio-
economic and demographic, traffic demand, and network data parameters (Hadayeghi et
al., 2003).
Oh et al., (2004) carried out a study to develop APMs that can be used to know and
identify effectual measures to improve signalized highway intersections. Poisson and
40
negative binomial linear regression models were developed using intersection accident
data from Georgia, California and Michigan. To ensure the fitness of the models,
numerous goodness-of-fit measures were computed (Oh et al., 2004).
Persaud (1994) carried out a study for estimating the accident potential of rural road
sections using linear regression technique. For this purpose, Ontario data was employed
to develop APMs based on its traffic and geometric parameters. This method of
predicting accidents is recommended for use in naming of accident black spots and for
safety treatments on rural roads (Persaud, 1994).
Mountain et al., (1998) used generalized linear modeling technique to develop regression
assessment of anticipated junction accidents, both in total and by severity. This technique
provided suitable results, which permit for the chance of accident hazard decreasing over
time. The factors contributing to accidents of various types comprised the method of
junction control, speed limit and traffic flow (Mountain et al., 1998).
Generalized linear models are often employed to relate accident rates to significant
independent variables. This study explains how confidence intervals (for example, for the
true accident rate at given flows) and prediction intervals (for example, for the number of
accidents at a new site with given flows) can be developed by employing spreadsheet
technology (Wood, 2004).
Mountain et al., (1996) conducted a study to develop and validate a method for estimating
anticipated accidents on main roads with minor junctions where traffic counts on the
minor links were not available. The study was done using data for some 3800 km of
highways, both single and dual carriageway, in both rural and urban areas of the U.K.
including more than 5000 minor junctions. Generalized linear modeling was used to
develop regression estimates of expected accidents for six highway categories (Mountain
et al., 1996).
Maheshwari et al., (2008) conducted a study to develop a multiple linear regression

model based on traffic pattern and intersection characteristics to estimate accidents at
signalized intersections.
41
The coefficient of determination, R2, is used as a measure to check the correctness of an

APM. The purpose of this study is to show that the R2 values obtained in different studies
are seldom equivalent with each other and that an APM can be rated as nearly perfect
even if the R2 value is small (Brüde et al., 1993).
Fajaruddin et al., (2008) carried out a study on irresponsible driving, ecological feature
and roadway condition which contribute to accidents. The purpose of this study was to
develop an APM for Federal Route 50 by using multiple linear regression technique. The
study showed a reduction in percent accident by modifying the measures of each variable.
The generalized linear model technique is better as it permits to express the number of
accidents as a function of a family of exponential distributions (Salifu, 2004).
Siriprasert et al., (2010) identifies roadway characteristics affect travel time in rural roads
and develops the mathematical model using multiple regression technique for estimating
travel time in rural roads in Thailand based upon road characteristics identified. For
calibration of the developed mathematical model, data pertaining to roadway
characteristics and travel time was collected from 65 rural roads in Thailand and more
than 20,000 vehicles. The research shows that speeds and travel times for both passenger
and freight transport in rural roads in Thailand are affected by land use, horizontal and
vertical alignment (Siriprasert et al., 2010).
While carrying out the traffic safety assessment of rural roads in Egypt, it was found that
there was a lack of past detailed accident data and APMs. This research was carried out to
develop a number of APMs (Abbas, 2004). Several studies have developed APMs.
Usually linear, non-linear and generalized linear modeling techniques are employed in the
development of such models. This research has been conducted to develop APMs relating
the number of accidents with annual average daily traffic (AADT) or annual average
vehicle kilometers (AAVK). Time series data of traffic and accidents, over a 10 years
period for the considered roads, is used to calibration of developed APMs. A number of
functional forms, including linear, exponential, power, logarithmic and polynomial, are
tested in the calibration process. Some of the developed APMs are shown below:
42
Road Functional form Accidents vs. AADT
Y =−0.0209X +1060
Linear
Cairo–Alexandria R2 =0.573, F =10.7
agriculture rural road Y =7E +8X−1.3892
Power
R2 =0.6, F =12
Y =−615.16 ln(X) +6768.1
Logarithmic
R2 =0.575, F =10.8.
Annual time series data Y =1730e−5E−5X
Exponential
(1990–1999) 10 points R2 =0.596, F =11.8.
Polynomial Y =1E − 6X2 − 0.0873X +2024
(quadratic) R2 =0.581, F =4.8
In this study only one independent variable, viz., AADT, is related with number of
accidents using different regression techniques (Abbas, 2004).
The above literature review about APM shows that, none of these models exclusively
express number of accidents as a function of vehicular and driver’s characteristics in
general. In order to study the effects of these most significant factors, a general linear
multiple regression model as given in Eq. 4.1 is proposed to predict the yearly accidents
by the author.
4.8 SUMMARY
Traffic road accidents are major concerns for planners and civil engineers due to
associated life losses, human sufferings and economic losses. In this chapter a review of
traffic accidents have been described. This emphasizes the need to devise means to curtail
the number of accidents. A brief description of such methods has been given in this
section. Accident prediction models have been developed around the world to estimate
the number of accidents on the basis of localized conditions (intersections, road sections).
A brief description of such APMs has been included in this chapter. An APM based on
vehicular and driver’s characteristics is also proposed for this study.
43
CHAPTER-5
SAMPLING THEORY
5.1 INTRODUCTION
The concept of statistics is of utmost importance for any research work in general and for
research work comprising a large data in particular. This chapter presents a review on the
basic concepts relating to sampling and the phases involved in data collection for
sampling.
5.2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF STATISTICS AND SAMPLING
Statistics is defined as a known and measurable entity showing a population having

unknown characteristics and the concept including theories and procedures for employing
sample information to draw results about tentative populations. This places a key focus
and concern upon the sample information, which aims at drawing conclusions about
populations. Samples are very useful because they are economical than a complete
enumeration or census, usually provide quick results, more practical source of
information (Lapin, 1983). For this research work a huge data of registered vehicles was
available. It was not possible to analyze this huge data. For this purpose samples of data
for different types of vehicles were taken to carry out analysis of the data and
development of APMs.
5.3 THE NEED FOR SAMPLING
It is usually needed to acquire incomplete or sample information through sample rather

than the complete data as sampling is considered reliable. Yet, depending on the purpose
of the investigation, sampling might not be satisfactory. There are a variety of reasons for
sampling as discussed below (Lapin, 1983):
a). Economic benefit
The first and the basic advantage of samples is that these are generally more cost-
effective than a census since inspection of a portion of items being produced is clearly
cheaper than estimating the entire run in detail. Further, at times the act of observation is
very expensive, especially in materials testing.
44
CHAPTER-5 SAMPLING THEORY
Balancing the costs and benefits of sampling is an important part of the statistics. It is
possible to control the possibility of sampling error so that an optimal solution is
achieved. This may be achieved by sensibly determining the sample size and by a
professional sampling design.
For this research work samples for different types of vehicles were taken to economize
the finances. In statistics, stratified sampling is a method of sampling from a population.
In statistical surveys, when subpopulations within an overall population vary, it is
advantageous to sample each subpopulation (stratum) independently. Stratification is the
process of dividing members of the population into homogeneous subgroups before
sampling. The strata should be mutually exclusive: every element in the population must
be assigned to only one stratum. The strata should also be collectively exhaustive: no
population element can be excluded. Then simple random sampling or systematic
sampling is applied within each stratum. This often improves the representativeness of the
sample by reducing sampling error. It can produce a weighted mean that has less
variability than the arithmetic mean of a simple random sample of the population
(Encyclopedia Wikipedia). Among total number of registered vehicles, representative and
justified sample sizes were taken for seven types of vehicles by using stratified sampling
technique. To achieve the professional sample design the survey locations for seven types
of vehicles were well distributed among the survey teams. Uniformity and accuracy of the
whole work was continuously checked.
b). Timeliness
Of course time plays a vital role as census may not be practical because it may require a
lot of time to acquire the requisite information. It could take months to investigate all
important users of a product regarding their design requirements while sample opinion is
very useful and versatile which accomplishes the requirements in minimum time. So the
data for investigations having huge data should better be taken through the sampling. For
this study samples of seven types of vehicles were taken in 6 months only. The time
required for completing one survey form was about 30 minutes.
45
c). Large population
Frequently certain populations involve such a large data such that it is simply impossible
to acquire the complete information in actual practice. Census in United States after every
10 years clearly indicates this fact as simply counting human beings is such a big job
accompanied by a lot of finances, which the under-developed nations do not even think of
it. The data regarding seven types of vehicle was large enough to acquire the complete
information. Therefore, it was decided to take samples for all types of vehicles.
d). Destructive nature of the observation
During investigation process, there are chances of destroy of information. A huge amount
therefore is wasted in statistical investigations if each unit is accessed separately. Even
surveys involving people might change the observed individuals that they no longer
represent the population. In order to collect the data regarding characteristics of the
vehicles and their drivers, survey teams were established, proper training was given to
them. In order to ensure the accuracy and precision in the survey work, the teams were
made to work under the supervision of the team leader and continuously monitored by the
author. Extreme care, precautions and counter checks were made in recording, coding and
entering the data and to avoid the destruction of data while preserving it for future studies.
e). Accuracy and sampling
The data collected through population is certainly more consistent than that the similar
one acquired through sampling. Of course, if the same data collecting methods were used
for both the census and the sample, the population information would be better. But at the
same time the cost of a detailed census would be so that shortcuts might be essential. A
carefully conducted sampling study can be preferred over a careless census. To enhance
the accuracy of the research work, representative and justified sample sizes of the actual
data of the total number of vehicles were taken. Proper check and careful supervision of
the survey teams were ensured to achieve the accuracy of the work.
46
5.4 DESIGNING AND CONDUCTING A SAMPLING STUDY
A statistical investigation consists of three stages, planning, data collection, and

evaluation. These three stages are discussed as under:
5.4.1 The planning stage

Planning is basic and first step in any investigation. The involvement of huge finances in
case of statistics increases its importance a lot. Care therefore must be taken so that the
proper procedures are followed during the planning stage. The steps involved in the
planning process as proposed by Lapin, (1983) are given in this section:
a). Establishing study goals
The most important assignment for investigation of samples is identification of clear

goals. Sampling investigations often end with a report or decision. The study’s goals will
dictate the kind of information to be provided by the sample. The clear goals/objectives of
the study were established as mentioned in section 1.2.
b). Setting resource parameters
In the prevailing condition of time and economic crisis, the sources leading to the goals
define the scope within which the investigation must be carried out. Achievement of ideal
levels of precision may not be possible. A decision, therefore, needs to be taken quickly
to optimize the results. In this research study, the financial resource was Rs. 600,000/-
funded by the University. Manpower for conducting the survey work comprising
University students was available at much cheaper rates. Equipments like desktop, laptop,
printer etc. were also provided by the University. Time available was sufficient so as to
reach at reliable results/models. For this purpose appropriate/sufficient data of the
samples of the vehicles were taken.
c). Designing the equipment
For designing of the statistical experiment, it is necessary to identify the parameters to be

measured, to specify the units, to determine the measuring instruments, to establish norms
and benchmarks for comparison. A usual statistical method is to allocate the sample from
the first population as the control group and the second population’s sample as the
47
experimental group. Where several populations are involved, each sample may be
considered as a separate treatment group.
For this study a total of 107 parameters were finalized along with their respective units of
measurements. These parameters were surveyed for seven types of vehicles considering
each vehicle a separate treatment group.
d). Selecting the statistical method
The simplest statistical method is the estimate of population parameter, which is

determined by counterpart sample statistics. Thus, the population mean can be estimated
by the sample mean. The decision about the comparison of two parameters of two
populations may be reached by a hypothesis testing.
A third major area of statistics is concerned with the association between two or more
variables. Strength of association or correlation may be the main concern of investigation.
Or one may wish to express the effect of one variable on the other in terms of a
prediction. For this purpose, a regression equation needs to be determined.
For this study, means, variances and etc. were determined of different parameters using
the SPSS software. Frequency analyses and cross tabulation analyses were also conducted
for all the parameters considered for this study. Multiple linear regression analyses were
also carried out to develop the APMs.
e). Establishing statistical benchmarks
In order to make the results bias free, before starting any investigation certain statistical
benchmarks should essentially be established. The hypotheses required to be tested and
choice of method (mean, median, proportion etc.) must be identified before collection of
the data which are being used in reaching the conclusions. For this study hypothesis as
mentioned in section 1.3 were established as benchmark.
f). Preparing observation instruments
The statistical investigations of physical objects usually need readily measurable

quantities such as size, weight or texture. The observations can easily be made with
48
commonly available equipment, but in order to observe some characteristics, special

devices may be required. For example; Traffic engineers often monitor vehicle flow with
a pressure-sensitive metering apparatus. Observation instruments can be the major
expense of statistical studies.
Seven types of Survey Forms considered as observation instruments for this study.
g). Establishing sampling specifications
During any investigation samples may not be truly representative which is very common.
Establishment of sample size, reliability and precision are sampling specifications. The
reliability and precision are subject to the investigator’s control. The reliability may be
sacrificed for precision. Both may be improved on the cost of large sample size.
Representative/appropriate sample sizes were taken as given in Table 6.1. Proper check
and supervision was maintained throughout the research work to achieve the reliability
and precision.
h). Determining the sample size
The size of the sample is based on the foregoing specifications for precision and
reliability. A probability analysis provides an expression relating sample size to these
specifications.
For this study samples for different types of vehicles were taken as 1-10% of the
respective population of the respective vehicles.
5.4.2 The Data collection stage

The execution of a plan, after it has been established, may be referred to as the data. This
stage also requires a careful planning. This stage is very important part of the sampling
investigation as improper data collection technique may lead errors. The data collection
stage can be carried out by selecting the units for observation, making the observations,
recording, reducing and storing the data and preserving a data base for future studies or
audit. For this study proper locations for collection of data were chosen and uniformly
distributed among the survey teams. The recorded observations are available for future
studies in the computer disk.
49
5.4.3 The Evaluation stage

The final phase of a statistical investigation is the evaluation stage. At this point some
action is taken and the goals of the study are fulfilled. The following steps are carried out
to accomplish this stage:
• Summarizing the sample results
• Executing the selected method
• Drawing conclusions
• Taking action
• Identifying areas for further study
All the above mentioned steps were carried out in this study.
5.5 BIAS AND ERROR IN SAMPLING
The major problems in any sampling study arise from an unavoidable fact that the sample
may not be representative of the population from which it is drawn. Efforts are made to
minimize any differences between sample results and the true population characteristics.
Different sampling errors and sampling bias are described as under:
a). Non sampling error
Data accumulation, reduction, processing, and storage are such actions that may lead to
errors and unrepresentative results. Errors arising from the manner of data collection or
processing may be categorized as non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors can be
avoided by experience and by learning from the mistakes of others. In engineering,
common sources of non-sampling error are measuring instruments that are not properly
calibrated
b). Sampling error
Sampling errors may be referred to as any differences between the sample and the
population values arisen due to the particular units selected for observations. This type of
error arises whenever the sample is not a perfect image of the population under
consideration. To some extent, all statistical investigations involve sampling error.
50
c). Sampling bias
An inclination to favour the observation of some population units over the others is called
sampling bias. Neither investigators nor probability theory can identify observations
created from a sampling bias. Errors arising from sampling bias are most dangerous in
statistical applications. To a large level, random samples are free from sampling bias.
5.6 SELECTING THE SAMPLE
Sampling error can not be avoided in any statistical investigation; however, it may be
controlled by selecting the random samples to a large extent. Sampling bias can be
minimized by following good procedures in selecting sample units.
There are several basic approaches to sample selection. The resulting samples fall into the
three main categories proposed by Lapin (1983):
i). The convenience sample
The convenience samples are those which are derived from convenient observations.
They are least scientific as a convenience sample is one when some generalization is
made from some individual experience. This type of sample may contain a lot sampling
bias. Probability cannot be used to qualify convenience samples in an attempt to measure
sampling error. Convenience samples are generally not acceptable in research.
ii). The judgment sample
This type of sample arises whenever selection of some of the observed units is made on
the basis of judgment. This approach may be okay in an effort to ensure sample diversity
and to guarantee representation of some groups. Many government indexes are based on
judgment samples. Like the convenience sample, probability is of little use in quantifying
any sampling error.
iii). The random sample
When every possible population unit is assigned a probability for being selected for
observation and inclusion in the sample, the resulting collection is called a random
51
sample. An alternative term is probability sample. There are several different kinds of
random samples.
a). Sequential random sample
In the sequential variation on the random sample, data collection is made easier by using
just one random number as a seed value for selecting all the sample units.
b). Stratified random sampling
In stratified random sampling, population units are sorted into categories, each of which
must be repeated in the sample; each grouping is called a stratum. A separate random
sample is then selected from each stratum. Such a procedure is desirable when different
groups must be represented, either for the sake of diversity or for comparison with each
other.
c). Cluster sample
Like the\ stratified sample, this scheme also divides the population into groups. These are
called clusters. Random numbers are used, not to select individual population units, but to
select the clusters by means of simple random sampling. Each unit within a selected
cluster is then included in the sample group.
For this study stratified random sampling technique was employed.
5.7 SUMMARY
For any research work involving a huge data collection, the study of sampling theory is of
utmost importance. The concept of sample and the reasons for conducting sampling from
a huge population have been discussed in this chapter. Any statistical investigation can be
completed in different stages namely planning, data collection and evaluation. A brief
description of these phases of the statistical investigation has been covered in this chapter.
The sampling types have been outlined in this part of thesis. The application of phases of
statistical investigations has also been described in this chapter.
52
CHAPTER-6
DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
6.1 INTRODUCTION
In order to develop correlations/models, a huge data is required to be collected. For this

purpose visits to different agencies are to be undertaken and surveys are also required.
The present study requires all these phases. This chapter presents a detailed description of
different activities undertaken for the data collection regarding vehicles plying on the
roads of Lahore. The research methodology undertaken to achieve the objectives outlined
in section 1.2 of this thesis is also being described in this chapter.
6.2 COLLECTION OF DATA
In order to collect data of vehicles plying on the roads of Metropolitan Lahore, a number
of visits to the following agencies were made:
• The Registration Office, Fareed Court, Lahore keeps the record of the registered
vehicles in the Lahore City. To collect the data regarding number of registered
motorcycles, scooters, cars and pickups visits were made. The details of registered
vehicles are presented in Appendix-B1.
• National Transport Authority Office, opposite to Flatties Hotel, Lahore prepares

the data about the public transport including rickshaws, qinqgis, wagons and
buses.
• Data regarding existing routes of wagons and buses in Lahore City was also
collected from National Transport Authority Office. The details of number of
public transport and prescribed routes of wagons and buses are presented in
Appendix-B2 and Appendix-B3 respectively.
• National Transport Research Centre (NTRC), Islamabad in an institution at

national level mandated to carry out research in the field of Transportation
Engineering. This institution has carried out a lot of research in this field. The
NTRC has also carried out research in the area of road accidents. Relevant to the
research study, 57 reports were collected from the NTRC to study the local
literature review.
53
CHAPTER-6 DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
• In order to manage the traffic within Lahore City certain areas/roads have been
made prohibited for Qinqgis. The data about prohibited areas/roads are presented
in Appendix-B4.
• As mentioned earlier in section 4.3, the data about accident of Lahore for the years
2005-2008 was obtained from the Traffic Police Headquarter. For collection of
this data the Lahore city has been divided into 10 circles and each circle is further
divided into 3-4 sectors. This data provides information about the fatal and non-
fatal accidents. This data is presented in Appendix-A1.
• The accident data of Lahore city for the years 2007-2008 was also obtained from
the Rescue 1122 aforementioned in section 4.3 and is presented in Appendix-A2.
For collection of this data the Lahore city has been divided into 5 stations. For
each station, accident information about seven categories of vehicles, main areas
of emergencies, number of emergencies and total number of victims including
both males and females has been incorporated.
6.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
In order to achieve the objectives of the research work the research methodology
comprise the following steps:
• Selection of vehicles
• Preparation of questionnaires/survey forms
• Selection of sample size
• Establishment of survey teams
• Conduct of survey of vehicles
• Preparation of coding manual
• Entering of huge data in computer
• Data analyses
• Development of accident prediction models
54
METHODOLOGY
A brief description of these steps is presented as under.
6.3.1 Selection of vehicles

The following vehicles were selected for this research work:
• Motorcycle rickshaw (Qingqi)
• Motorcycle / Scooter
• Passenger car
• Wagon
• Bus
• Rickshaw
• Pickup
6.3.2 Preparation of questionnaires/survey forms

After studying the literature available on survey conducted on the characteristics of
vehicles and drivers of vehicles in different parts of the world about 107 important
relevant characteristics were selected for the study. Thus to achieve the objectives
mentioned in Chapter-1, the questionnaires were designed for different vehicles and
survey locations were finalized in such a way that a representative data could be
achieved. The survey forms are included in this report as Appendices-C1 to C7 and
survey locations as Appendices-D1 to D7.
6.3.3 Selection of sample size

Using the method of stratified sampling, representative samples of every type of vehicle
were taken for the study. The samples of different vehicles considered for the study are
ranging from 1% to 10% of the total number of registered vehicles in Lahore since the
sample size taken for any study should not be less than 1% of the population size
(Chaudhry et al., 2006). The details of registered vehicles along with corresponding
sample sizes and number of survey locations are given in Table 6.1.
55
METHODOLOGY
Table 6.1: Details of registered vehicles, sample size and number of survey locations
(After Motor Vehicle Registration Office, Lahore)
Total No. of Percentage No. of Survey
Sample
S. Registered of Sample Forms for No. of Survey
Vehicle Type Size/No. of
No. Vehicles Till June, Size Model Locations
Survey Forms
2006 (%) Verification
1 Motorcycle 5,000 200 4.0 30 10
Rickshaw
2 Motorcycle / 500,000 6,000 1.2 1,000 100
Scooter
3 Bus 2,000 200 10.0 30 43
4 Pickup 22,000 300 1.4 50 100
5 Passenger car 400,000 3,000 1.0 800 100
6 Wagon 23,000 170 1.0 25 42
7 Auto Rickshaw 26,000 500 1.9 100 100
6.3.4 Establishment of survey teams

Ten survey teams, consisting of students of University of Engineering and Technology,
Lahore, were established to survey different sites within Metropolitan Lahore to collect
the data regarding characteristics of vehicles and drivers. Each survey team consisting of
ten members worked under the guidance of a team leader. The team had been given a
schedule and it was regularly monitored in order to collect a representative data. The team
leader and team members were paid a suitable remuneration for completing the job.
6.3.5 Conduct of survey of vehicles

The foremost step for carrying out survey of vehicles was the selection of sites and routes
for different vehicles. The sites and routes were selected in such a way that a
representative data could be achieved. In the initial stages of the survey more time period
was required to complete a survey form but with the passage of time, the survey team
become more experienced and the time for completion of survey form had been reduced.
Roughly time required to complete one survey form ranges between 20-40 minutes. Data
for model developments and verification were collected in one year with effect from July
2005 to June 2006. Initially collection of data for the development of models for different
vehicles was completed. This phase took about four months, i.e., July to October 2005.
After doing this phase accomplished, collection of data for verification of developed
models was commenced in May 2006. This phase took two months, i.e., May to June
2006.
56
METHODOLOGY
6.3.6 Preparation of coding manual

After collecting the data a coding manual was devised so that the collected information
can be converted to the digits to form data base for the analysis. A statistical analysis of
the collected data was carried out using software Statistical Package for Social Sciences
(SPSS).
6.3.7 Data analyses

The questionnaires/survey forms developed for different vehicles contain 107 variables.
All of the variables do not significantly contribute to the accidents. In order to select
significant variables related to vehicular and driver’s characteristics for each type of
vehicle under study, the following procedure was adopted using SPSS software:
Frequency analyses of all the variables.

Cross-tabulation analyses between number of accidents in last two years and all variables.
Correlation analyses of number of accidents in last two years with all variables.
Establishment of significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics (independent variables)
on the basis of preceding steps
Final selection/identification of the most significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics
taking into account their contribution towards accidents on the basis of their reliability.
The most significant variables were used in linear regression analysis to develop the
accident prediction models (APMs) between accidents occurred during last two years and
the vehicular and driver’s characteristics for all the vehicles. These APMs were
developed using the SPSS software.
Model verification by comparing the actual number of accidents per year with the
estimated number of accidents calculated by developed APMs.
The steps followed to complete the research work are presented in the flow diagram,
Figure 6.1.
57
CHAPTER-6 DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Selection of topic for Ph. D. research

Development of Relationships among Vehicular and Driver’s Characteristics with Traffic Accidents
Identification of vehicular and driver’s characteristics Objectives of Ph. D. research Development of APMs Recommendation to lessen
contributing to accidents accidents
Driver’s characteristics Vehicular characteristics Literature review and study Police enforcement Sampling techniques
using internet, libraries, research
Traffic accidents
papers, discussion with various experts Models
Survey of vehicles and drivers
Selection of survey locations

Selection of 107 characteristics of vehicles and Selection of 7 types of vehicles
drivers
Formation of 7 survey teams Motorcycle rickshaw, Motorcycle, Passenger car, Wagon, Bus,
Collection of data about characteristics of Rickshaw, Pickup
vehicles and their drivers Training of survey teams
Visits to concerned agencies to collect data about
Coding for 107 characteristics (including options) number of registered vehicles
of vehicles and drivers Distribution of survey locations and
allocation of number of vehicles among Registration office, National Transport Authority
the survey teams
Development of survey forms
Selection of sample sizes for all types of vehicles
using stratified random sampling technique
Conducting of survey of vehicles and 1-10 % of total number of registered vehicles

their drivers by survey teams
Monitoring of survey teams
Completion of survey
58
Figure 6.1 Flow diagram of research work Continued
CHAPTER-6 DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Development of Accident Prediction Models (APMs) Continued

(For 7 types of vehicles)
Study of SPSS software

SStudy
Study of Statistical Analysis Formulation of coding manual
Entering of 4 million data points
Selecting 95% confidence level
Frequency analyses of 107 variables each for 7 types of vehicles, viz. 749 variables in all.
Checking of working of SPSS software by manual calculation of frequencies of replies given in the survey forms.
Pearson’s correlation analysis. Dependent variable (No. of accidents during last two years). Independent variables (107x3x7=2,247) with
various options, Vehicles and their driver’s characteristics
Selection of significant correlated characteristics contributing to accidents
Checking of physical behaviour of significant characteristics
Authentication check to finalize the most significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics contributing to accidents
(using paired t-test and ANOVA)
Cross-tabulation analyses between dependent and most significant independent characteristics
Development of APMs using the linear regression model
Validation of APMs
59
Figure 6.1 Flow diagram of research work
METHODOLOGY
6.4 SUMMARY
In this chapter the description of the data collected for this research work has been
presented. The details of different agencies visited for the collection of the data are given.
The procedural steps carried out for the research methodology have also been covered in
this chapter. The collection and entry of data were the most difficult and time consuming
phases of this research. A brief description of different phases of work and time
consumed for their completion is given below:
• Accident data from Police 3 months
• Accident data from RESCUE 1122 1 month
• Data from NTRC, Islamabad 2 months
• Number of registered vehicles 3 months
• Finalization of questionnaires/survey forms 6 months
• Survey of vehicles using survey forms 12 months
• Data entry of 4 million data points in the software 6 months
• Analysis of data 6 months
60
CHAPTER-7 DATA ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
DATA ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ACCIDENT

PREDICTION MODELS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
For this research work seven types of vehicles were selected. The details about the data
collection and research methodology are presented in chapter-6. This chapter presents
data analysis using SPSS software, discussion on the analysis and development of
accident prediction models for seven types of vehicles. The observations and conclusions
drawn from the analysis of each type of vehicle are also given.
7.2 ANALYSIS OF DATA
The following different analyses of the data of each vehicle type were carried out using
SPSS software:
• Frequency analysis
• Cross-tabulation analysis
• Regression analysis for development of accident prediction models
For this research work it was needed to develop relationship among number of accidents
and the most significant vehicular and drivers characteristics contributing to accidents,
viz., relationship among one dependent variable and several independent variables. For
this purpose available regression techniques like linear, quadratic, compound,
logarithmic, cubic, exponential, inverse, power and linear multiple in the SPSS software
have been employed for this research work. A brief in this regard is presented in
Appendix-C8. The brief indicates that all the regression techniques do not provide
suitable results. Further the most appropriate regression technique for the development of
required relationship is multiple linear regression analysis as it provides good fitness of
data having R2 value closer to 1. The literature review already given in Chapter-4 also
supports the multiple linear regression analysis for development of APMs.
These analyses for seven types of vehicles are presented in sections 7.3 to 7.9.
61
7.3 MOTORCYCLE RICKSHAW
A motorcycle rickshaw (Figures 7.1 to 7.3) is basically a modified form of motorcycle

having a mainframe that supports the engine, body and the wheels. The rear tyre of the
motorcycle is removed and two tyres of auto rickshaws are provided at the rear at which
the body of the motorcycle rickshaw is fitted. The body of motorcycle rickshaw
comprises of five seats for passengers two at the front and three in the back along with
one seat for the driver in the front on the part of motorcycle. This makes design seating
capacity of six persons including driver. The motorcycle rickshaw does not have any
doors or windows. The body of motorcycle rickshaw has roof at the top. It is a four stroke
vehicle. The cost of new motorcycle rickshaw ranges from Rs.100, 000/- to Rs.130, 000/-
depending upon its make and the quality of the body. The fare charged by motorcycle
rickshaw ranges from Rs. 6 to 10 per passenger depending upon the distance to be
covered on the designated route.
The motorcycle rickshaws are allowed to move only on designated routes/areas in

Lahore, especially North of Lahore, South of Lahore and suburban areas of Lahore, and
are not permitted in posh areas like Gulberg, Defence, Model Town etc., as they generate
a lot of pollution in the form of smoke and noise.
Figure 7.1: Front view of motorcycle rickshaw
62
Figure 7.2: Side view of motorcycle rickshaw
Figure 7.3 Back side view of motorcycle rickshaw
7.3.1 Survey Locations for Motorcycle Rickshaw

The following survey locations were selected for the survey, shown as Appendix D1:
• Minar-e-Pakistan
• Railway Station
• Rangmahal
• G.T. Road
• Data Darbar
63
• Railway Station Back Side
• Dharampura Bazar
• Daroghawala Chowk
• Chuna Mandi
• Tajpura Scheme
7.3.2 Frequency Analysis and Discussion

Based on the analysis using SPSS, the results of frequency analysis regarding vehicular
and driver’s characteristics of motorcycle rickshaws along with observations and
discussion are given below and typical frequency analysis table for motorcycle rickshaw
is presented in Appendix-E1:
• The vehicle use is 2% as private and 98% as commercial purpose. This indicates
that most of the motorcycle rickshaws are used as para transit vehicle.
• About 55% drivers own their motorcycle rickshaws while the remaining drivers
have it on rent or lease. This shows that majority of drivers are owners of
motorcycle rickshaws.
• About 78% of the motorcycle rickshaws are manufactured by M/s Suzuki and
99% of them have engine capacity of 100cc.
• About 93% motorcycle rickshaws have year of manufacturing as 2000 or later.

This shows that most of the motorcycle rickshaws plying on the roads are new one
and their number is increasing rapidly.
• Only 4% of the motorcycle rickshaws have been converted to compressed natural

gas (CNG) vehicle. 96% of the motorcycle rickshaws use petrol
• About 86% the motorcycle rickshaws have odometer working. This indicates that
most of the motorcycle rickshaws are in good condition.
• 15% of the motorcycle rickshaws have loose footbrakes. This shows that this
percentage can cause serious accidents.
64
• Only 44% of the motorcycle rickshaws have tools for changing tyres. This shows
that majority of motorcycle rickshaws can cause problems to the passengers
during their journeys and majority of the drivers does not feel sense of
responsibility.
• About 36% of the motorcycle rickshaws have horns in nonworking condition.

This shows that such motorcycle rickshaws can cause serious accidents.
• More than 60% of the motorcycle rickshaws do not have right side or left side
mirrors. This high percentage indicates that such motorcycle rickshaws can cause
very serious accidents. The traffic police should have strict compliance of traffic
rules.
• More than 12% of the motorcycle rickshaws have low beams and high beams in
non working condition. This percentage can cause accidents during night.
• More than 28% of the motorcycle rickshaws have non working front and rear
indicators which shows these can cause accidents on the roads.
• More than 54% of motorcycle rickshaws have nonworking brake lights. This
indicates that such a huge number of motorcycle rickshaws can cause problems
for the road safety.
• More than 30% of the motorcycle rickshaws have noisy sound exhaust system.
This indicates that such an alarming percentage of motorcycle rickshaws are
creating noise pollution in the environment.
• More than 30% of the motorcycle rickshaws have damage on any part of the
motorcycle rickshaw. This shows that this huge amount of motorcycle rickshaw
had met some accidents.
• More than 20% of the motorcycle rickshaws have tyres with uneven or excessive
wear. This amount may cause accidents, especially during the rainy season.
• More than 20% of the motorcycle rickshaws emit excessive exhaust smoke
indicating that this huge amount of motorcycle rickshaws are not mechanically fit.
65
• More than 14% of the motorcycle rickshaws do not possess registration number
plates and more than 30% of the motorcycle rickshaws possessing number plates
have improper quality of number plates. This depicts that motorcycle rickshaw
drivers give least importance to number plates.
• Cassette players are fitted in more than 25% of motorcycle rickshaws. This shows
that drivers don not give due consideration to noise pollution.
• All the motorcycle rickshaws drivers are Pakistani nationals and all of them are
male.
• 14% of the drivers are younger than 18, 29% have 18-25 years of age, 22% have
age range of 25-30 years, 3% have age range of 30-40 years and 11% are older
than 40 years. Driving license is issued to a person whose age is at least 18, this
shows that 14% of drivers are driving the motorcycle rickshaws without having
license. This shows that law enforcing agency personnel are not giving due
consideration to this aspect. The age group also indicates that most of the drivers
are young.
• 78% of the drivers are full time drivers while 22% of the drivers have some other
occupation and drive motorcycle rickshaws as a part time job.
• More than 30% drivers are either illiterate or primary pass.
• More than 80% drivers have 10 years or less driving experience indicating that
most of the motorcycle rickshaws drivers are not experts.
• Almost 75% of the drivers did not commit any accident during the last two years
and 70% claim that they did not commit any accident in their whole driving life.
• More than 6% of the drivers are physically unfit. They may be prone to more
accidents.
• Almost 50% of the drivers are smokers and more than 20% of the driver’s smoke
11or more cigarettes per day. This shows that 50% of the drivers may have lung
disease.
66
• Almost 60% of the drivers have monthly income less than Rs.5, 000/-. This shows
that most of the drivers have financial constraints and are leading hard life.
• More than 45% of the drivers do not possess any driving license and more than
70% of the drivers do not possess driving license at the time of survey. This is
indicative of the fact that police is not strict in this connection.
• Only 25% drivers take their vehicles for weekly routine checkups. This indicates
that drivers are careless and do not give proper consideration regarding vehicle
fitness.
• Only 5% vehicles have severe accident intensity and drivers claim that about 50%
of the accidents take place during noon time.
• More than 70% of the drivers do not possess route permit. This shows that drivers
give least consideration to this aspect.
• More than 35% drivers claim to have tendency to exceed the speed limit. It is an
alarming percentage and this tendency of drivers should be prevented as it may
cause accidents.
• The motorcycle rickshaws drivers claim that more than 45% policemen behave
with them in an improper way where as only 4% of the passengers behave in
similar fashion.
• More than 50% of the drivers are not satisfied with their profession. This huge
percentage can cause severe accidents.
• Less than 1% of the drivers use safety helmet which is an alarming amount and is
a series concern for traffic police.
• More than 20% of the motorcycle rickshaw drivers observe to exceed the
passenger design capacity of 5. This may unbalance the vehicle and cause
accidents.
• All the drivers claim that they have to give up to Rs. 600 per month to police. This
is the reason that more than 45% of the drivers rarely obey or do not strictly obey
traffic rules. When this survey was conducted, i.e., during 2006, there was old
67
traffic police set up. Now city traffic police has introduced a new set up and
appointed Traffic Wardens to control the traffic. These traffic wardens are
educated and trained with improved skills and hence in general not involved in
corruption.
• More than 99% of the drivers do not owe any type of insurance.
• More than 85% of the drivers have been fined for any offence for 1 to 5 times in
their driving experience and more than 52% of the drivers have been fined for 3-5
times. This shows that majority of drivers do not observe traffic rules.
• Loose or normal brake is a cause of more than 75% of accidents during the last
two years.
• Non availability of right side mirror is a cause of more than 60% accidents during
the last two year.
• Non-working of front and rear indicators causes more than 50% of accidents
during the last two years.
• Presence of any damage on the motorcycle rickshaw is indicative of more than

65% instances of accidents during the last two years.
• Presence of cassette player in the motorcycle rickshaws is a sign of accidents for

more than 35% of the total accidents during the last two years.
• More than 50% of the accidents have been committed by drivers having age less
than 18 or 18-25 years. This indicates that with increase in age, amount of
accidents decreases.
• More than 75% accidents have been committed by drivers having qualification
level of metric or below, indicating higher the qualification level, the lesser the
accidents.
• More than 80% of the accidents occurred during the last two years have been
committed by drivers having driving experience less than 10 years. This indicates
that number of accidents decrease with driving experience.
68
• More than 70% of the accidents occurred during the last two years have been
committed by drivers who used to smoke. This indicates that smoking habit is a
cause of accidents.
7.3.3 Cross-tabulation Analysis and Discussion

Cross-tabulation is used to show relationships between answers made for two survey
questions. The responses from two questions are displayed in a table. The counts show
the number of survey responses that matched both the column heading choice and the row
label choice. The cross tabulation analyses using SPSS were carried out with special
emphasis on the number of accidents occurred during the last two years against the
vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Motorcycle Rickshaws. The observations and
discussions of four the most significant characteristics impacting the numbers of accident
are shown graphically as under and typical cross tabulation analysis table for motorcycle
rickshaw is presented in Appendix-F1:
a). Brake conditions
Figure 7.4 shows that at about 7 % of the instances one or two accidents occurred during
the last two years due to loose brakes. Ensuring the periodic fitness of vehicle may check
the accidents due to loose brakes. Figure 7.4 shows 16 % accidents occurred even when
the brakes are normal or tight. This aspect shows that the cause of accidents may be due
to other factors also like non-working of hand brake, out of order indicators, illiteracy of
driver, availability of musical instrument, driver habitual of violating traffic rules and
using cell phone while driving, driver having age less than 18, worries of driver due to
less monthly income etc. Figure 7.5 indicates that at about 9 % of the instances one or
two accidents occurred during the last two years due to non-working hand brakes while
about 14% due to hand brake in working condition. The periodic maintenance vehicle
may help check the accidents due to non-working hand brake. The causes of accidents
even when the hand brake is in working condition may be owing to other factors.
b). Musical instrument
Figure 7.6 shows that involvement of accidents during the last two years by the
Motorcycle Rickshaws having musical instrument is almost equal to the vehicles without
69
such instruments. But the causes of accidents occurred by vehicles without musical
instruments may be due to some other parameters.
0.5% Tight 0.5% Not W orking

Accidents in last two years

2 1.0% 2
0% Normal 1% W orking
Loos e
5.2% 9%
1 9.9% 1
7.3% 13%
25.0%
20%
0 43.2% 0
7.8% 56%
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200

Fo o t b r ak e co n d itio n co u n t Han d b r ak e co n d itio n co u n t
Figure 7.4: Relation between number of Figure 7.5: Relation between number
accidents and foot brake of accidents and hand brake
conditions conditions
0% None 1.0%
0.5% 3
2 2 0%
0.5% Available 0% 2
0.5% 1
11.4% 2.5%
1 1 19.0% 0
10.9% 0%
0%
60.3% 0 0.5%
0 2.5%
16.3% 73.5%
0 100 200 0 50 100 150 200
Musical instrument count Accidents in life time count
Figure 7.6: Relation between number of Figure 7.7: Relation between number of
accidents and availability of accidents and accidents in
musical instrument lifetime
c). Accidents in life time
Figure 7.7 shows that the percentage of accidents occurred by drivers in their lifetime is
nearly equal to that happened by them during the last two years.
70
No

1.0%
2
0.5% Yes
6.1
1
16.2%
43.1%
0
33.0%
0 50 100 150 200

Driver sm okes count
Figure 7.8:Relation between number of

accidents and smoking habit of
drivers
d). Driver’s smoking habit
Figure 7.8 shows that 16 % driver habitual of smoking are prone towards accidents during
the last two years. The non-smoker drivers had also come across one or two accidents at
about 6% instances.
The above analysis shows that the traffic accidents mostly occur due to combined effect
of various significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics and do not depend on only one
characteristics and this fact emphasizes the need and basis for the development of APM.
7.3.4 Accident Prediction Model for Motorcycle Rickshaw

For the development of model, contributions of four most significant vehicular and
drivers’ characteristics have been identified using correlations method available in the
SPSS software. The linear multiple regression analysis techniques has been employed to
develop APM relating the number of accidents for two years (dependent variable) and
four most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics (independent variables)using
the SPSS software. The model summary comprising R-squared, adjusted R-squared and
standard error of estimate values for the linear multiple regression analysis are
respectively 0.834, 0.831 and 0.218 as shown in Table 7.1. Table 7.2 presents the output
of the linear multiple regression analyses for two years span using the SPSS software. In
order to get the coefficient values for one year, the standardized coefficient values given
71
in Table 7.2 were divided by 2. The products of coefficient values and the respective
variables have been added and shown on the right side of equation 7.1.
Table 7.1: Model summary for motorcycle rickshaw

R* R2 Adjusted R2 Standard Error of the Estimate
0.913 0.834 0.831 0.218

*: Pearson’s correlation
Table 7.2: Coefficients (a) for motorcycle rickshaw

Variables Standardized t-Value p-value
Coefficients
Condition of foot brakes, loose 0.062 1.960 0.050
Accidents in life time 0.834 24.985 0.000
Driver smokes, yes 0.071 2.044 0.042
Musical instruments, available 0.064 1.931 0.050
a Dependent Variable: Accidents in Last Two Years
The Accident Prediction Model, with number of accidents per year as dependent variable
and significant vehicular and drivers characteristics as independent variables is given
below:
Na(MR) = 0.0310 V1 +0.4170 D1 + 0.0350 D2+ 0.0640 D3 (7.1)
where, Na(MR) = Expected number of accidents per year for motorcycle rickshaw
V1 = Condition of foot brakes, loose
D1 = Number of accidents occurred in life time
D2 = Driver smokes, yes
D3 = Musical instrument, available
7.3.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Motorcycle Rickshaw

Sampling size of 230 Motorcycle Rickshaws was taken, 200 for model development and
30 for its verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.1, the number of
accidents per year was estimated using equation 7.1 for 30 Motorcycle Rickshaws and
compared with the actual number of accidents for the same Motorcycle Rickshaws.
72
Figure 7.9 presents this comparison. The estimated and actual numbers of accidents per
year are in good agreement.
Number of accidents per year 2

Actual number of accidents per year
Estimated number of accidents per year
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Serial number of motorcycle rickshaw s
Figure 7.9: Verification of APM for Motorcycle Rickshaws
7.3.6 Conclusions from Motorcycle Rickshaw Analysis

An extensive study of Motorcycle Rickshaw was carried out to study the effect of
vehicular/driver characteristic on the number of accident. The conclusions drawn are as
under:
The loose brakes and other damage signs show that driver is habitual of careless driving
and such factors became the causes of accidents of Motorcycle Rickshaws. Proper motor
vehicle examination report of Motorcycle Rickshaws should be periodically issued by the
motor vehicle examination authority for ensuring the road safety.
Playing of musical instrument while driving the Motorcycle Rickshaws is also resulting in
accidents. Its use while driving the vehicle should be strictly prohibited by the law
enforcing agencies.
The license issuing authority should issue license to drivers after proper test and
availability of license must be frequently checked.
Road safety campaigns and traffic education programmes should be frequently arranged
by the traffic management agencies, through workshops, print and electronic media, to
73
educate the drivers about the traffic rules, speed limits and penalties on violation of traffic
rules.
The APM developed, equation 7.1, can be used for prediction of number of accidents by
selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of Motorcycle Rickshaws of
Lahore and for other cities of Punjab
7.4 MOTOR CYCLE
The details of survey locations, analysis and development of accident prediction model
for Motor Cycle are presented in this section.
7.4.1 Survey Locations for Motorcycle

The following survey locations (Appendix D2) were selected for the survey:
• Fortress Stadium
• Liberty Market
• Race Course
• New Garden Town
• Montgomery Road
• Miner-e-Pakistan
• Railway Station
• Mall Road
• Lahore Cantt,/Airport
• Rangmahal
• Multan Jail Road
• R.A Bazar
• U.E.T
• Punjab University Old Campus
74
• Punjab University New Campus
• Neela Gumbad
• Akbari Mandi
• Data Darbar
• Badami Bagh
• Scheme Morh
• Samanabad Chowk
• General Bus Stand
• Shalimar Garden
• Dharam Pura Bazar
• Akber Chowk
• Barkat Market
• Chungi Amar Sadho
• Hall Road
• Wasanpura
• Singh Pura
• Chuna Mandi
• Chah Meeran
• Faiz Bagh
• Chamrrah Mandi
• Taj Pura Scheme
• Sultanpura
75
• Mughalpur
• Baghbanpura
• China Scheme
• Misri Shah
• Kot Khuwaja Saeed
• Garhi Shaho
• Gujarpura
• Grass Mandi
• Shah Alam Market
• Brandreth Road
• Government College
• M.A.O. College
• Lahore Zoo
• Sabzi Mandi
• Veterinary University
• Mall Stat Bank
• Chouburji
• Bakar Mandi
• Badshahi Mosque
• Jahangir Tomb
• Shalimar Hospital
• Museum
• Gulshan Iqbal
• Moon Market
76
• Main Market
• Cavalry Ground
• Defence
• Gowal Mandi
• Jallo Park
• Thokar Niaz Baig
• Walton
• Shahdara Town
• WAPDA Town
• Township
• Shah Jamal Market
• Shadman Market
• Gulshan Ravi
• Johar Town
• Chowk Yateem Khana
• Allama Iqbal Medical College
• Dial Singh College
• Mecload Road
• F.C College
• LUMS
• FAST
• Punjab College of Commerce
• Mayo Hospital
• Services Hospital
77
• Jinnah Hospital
• General Hospital
• Awan Market
• Shah Noor Studio
• Band Road
• Bhati Gate
• Queen Marry College
• Lahore Hotel
• Wood Market
• Fazal Town
• Sanda Road
• Karim Park
• Shuja Colony
• Bilal Ganj

Based on the analysis using SPSS, the results regarding frequency analysis of vehicular
and driver’s characteristics of motorcycle along with observations and discussion are
presented as under and typical frequency analysis table for motorcycle is presented in
Appendix-E2:
• There are 99% motor cycles and 1% scooters. It means that drivers prefer to use
motorcycles.
• More than 95% vehicles use is as private and about 5% motor cycles have been
used for commercial purposes.
• More than 87% people were driving their own motor cycles at the time of
interview.
78
• About 63% drivers use motorcycles manufactured by M/s Atlas Honda

Corporation.
• More than 60% drivers were driving motor cycles having make year 2000 or
onwards. It shows that most of the drivers possess new motor cycles.
• About 70% motor cyclists have motor cycles with engine power of 70 cc and
about 1% motor cyclists have installed CNG in their motor cycles.
• About 10% drivers have non-working speedometers and about 73% have their
odometer working.
• More than 10% motor cyclists have loose brakes and about 3% have non-working
hand brakes. This proportion of motorcyclists may come across any accidents.
• More than 7% people have horns in non-working condition.
• Majority of the motorcyclists were found driving without left side or right side
back view mirrors. This is an alarming situation and hence may cause accidents.
• More than 25% drivers have non-working front and rear indicators and have
chances of meeting road incidents.
• Only 9% drivers have working brakes lights for foot and hand brakes. This aspect
may cause severe accidents, especially during night.
• About 10% drivers have placed registration number plates of improper quality and
more than 11% motor cyclists have noisy exhaust system. These aspect shows
carelessness on the part of drivers.
• More than 10% motorcycles had signs of damages at the event of interview. This
aspect shows this proportion of motorcyclists had definitely met some type of road
accidents.
• All the drivers were male having Pakistani nationality.
• About 1% drivers were younger than 18 years and about 9% drivers were older
than 40 years. This shows that most of the motorcyclists have age range of 18 to
40. The attention of traffic police is required regarding the 1% motorcyclists
driving without license.
79
• More than 60% of the drivers have 10 years or more driving experience and more
than 80% drive motor cycles more than 10,000 km/year.
• More than 60% drivers had met accidents in their life time and more than 50%
driven had met accidents during last two years. It shows careless behaviour on the
part of motorcyclists.
• 33% of the drivers were single and 67% were married. About 10% of the drivers
have 4 or more children.
• More than 45% of the drivers had the smoking habit and more than 25% had been
smoking for more than 10 years. More than 35% smoke more than 10 cigarettes
per day. The smoking habit on the part of drivers may be cause of their
involvement in accidents.
• More than 20% drivers have monthly income of Rs. 5,000 or less. The financial
hardship on this alarming proportion of motorcyclists may be the cause of road
accidents.
• More than 10% drivers did not have issued driving license and only 70% had their
license available at the time of survey. This huge proportion of drivers driving
without licenses shows careless attitude of drivers and needs attention of traffic
police.
• Only 66% drivers were of the view that periodic motor cycle fitness check up was
required for vehicle. This aspect shows careless behaviour of drivers.
• More than 65% of the drivers met accidents at evening or night time. These
accidents may be due to the fact that a huge percentage of drivers drive their
motor cycles without brake lights.
• More than 25% of the drivers claim that they exceed speed limit. This large
proportion of drivers may come across serious accidents if not properly addressed
by traffic police.
• More than 65% of the drivers have complaints so far behaviour of police is
concerned and more than 95% drivers claim that they used to give up to Rs.200
per month to police. This aspect may be cause of traffic accidents.
80
• More than 15% of the drivers are not satisfied with their profession.
Dissatisfaction on the part of drivers may cause serious accidents.
• About 40% of the drivers were wearing safety helmet at the time of survey. It
shows irresponsible attitude on part of 60% drivers and this huge percentage of
drivers may come across severe head injuries in case of accidents.
• More than 6% motor cycles have both tyres with uneven or excessive wear. This
aspect shows careless attitude of drivers.
• More than 95% of the drivers did not have any type of insurance.
• More than 10% the drivers do not follow traffic rules and more than 90% of the
drivers had been fined due to any offence during their driving experience. This
aspect again shows careless driving behaviour.

The cross tabulation analyses using SPSS were carried out on all the parameters with
special emphasis on the number of accidents occurred during the last two years against
vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Motor Cycle. The observations and discussions on the
cross-tabulation analysis of six most significant characteristics affecting the number of
accidents are given below and typical cross tabulation analysis table for motorcycle is
presented in Appendix-F2:
a). Mirror availability
According to Figure 7.10, non- availability of right side mirror on the vehicles leads that
the vehicle is prone to accidents for more than 25 % instances.
b). Indicators condition
It is quite evident from Figure 7.11 that one or two accidents occurred during the last two
years for more than 10 % instances due to non-working of one or both rear indicators.
81
No 2.2% Both working

1.7%

2 2 0.1% Not working
1.1% Yes 0.5%
One working
27.7% 35.7%
1 1 4.0%
21.3%
9.3%
28.4% 35.8%
0 0 4.9%
19.8%
7.5%
0 1500 3000 4500 6000 0 1500 3000 4500 6000

Right side m irror availability count Rear indicators condition count
Figure 7.10 Relation between number of Figure 7.11 Relation between number of
accidents and mirror accidents and indicator
availability conditions
0.1%
1.0% No
2.3% 3
2 0.2% 2
2 1.9% Yes
0%
1
0.8%
1
8.3% 0 19.9
39.7% 1
0.1% 29.1%
0.4%
0.9% 30.6%
0 9.4% 0
37.5% 17.4%
0 1500 3000 4500 6000 0 1500 3000 4500 6000

Accidents in life tim e count Driver smokes count
accidents and accidents in life accidents and smoking habit
time of driver
Figure 7.12 shows that the about 50% instances, drivers committed accidents during last
two years as well as during their life time. It means that they had not improved their
driving skills and were careless drivers.
82
d). Smoking habit of drivers
Figure 7.13 shows that involvement of accidents during the last two years by the drivers
habitual of smoking is about 30% and Figure 7.14 shows that at about 30% instances
drivers puffing more than 5 cigarettes per day were involved in accidents.
e). Profession satisfaction
According to Figure 7.15, more than 10% drivers having dissatisfaction with their
profession were found to be involved in accidents during the last two years.
1.4% 0.5% No

0.4% 16-20/day
2 0.1%
11-15/day 2.3% Yes
1.0%
5-10/day
13.0% 0/day
9.1%
10.3%
1 7.2% 38.6%
19.6%
7.3%
8.5%
5.2% 1
0 4.6% 39.6%
31.1%
0 1500 3000 4500 6000 0 1500 3000 4500 6000
No. of ciggarates per day count Profession satisfaction count
Figure 7.14: Relation between number of Figure 7.15: Relation between number of
accidents and number of accidents and profession
cigarettes per day satisfaction
The cross tabulation analysis indicates that the traffic accidents usually do not occur due
to one aspect of driver or vehicle rather they occur due to combined effect of various
significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics. This fact highlights the need for the
development of APM for Motor Cycle.
7.4.4 Accident Prediction Model for Motorcycle

Six most significant vehicular and drivers’ characteristics contributing to accidents have
been identified using correlations method available in the SPSS software and accordingly
the linear multiple regression analysis techniques has been employed to develop APM
relating the number of accidents for two years (dependent variable) and six most
significant drivers and vehicular characteristics (independent variables)using the SPSS
software. The model summary comprising R-squared, adjusted R-squared and standard
83
error of estimate values for the linear regression analysis are respectively 0.714, 0.713
and 0.443 as shown in Table 7.3. Table 7.4 presents the output of the linear regression
analyses for two years span using the SPSS software. In order to get the coefficient values
for one year, the standardized coefficient values given in Table 7.4 were divided by 2.
The products of coefficient values and the respective variables have been added and
shown on the right side of equation 7.2.
Table 7.3: Model summary for motor cycle

0.845 0.714 0.713 0.443
*:Pearson’s correlation
Table 7.4: Coefficients (a) for motorcycle

Standardized t-Value p-Value
Variables
Coefficients
Presence of right side mirror, No 0.026 2.998 0.003
Condition of rear indicators, One working 0.025 3.413 0.001
Driver smokes, Yes 0.042 2.381 0.017
No. of cigarettes per day 0.065 3.883 0.000
Are you satisfied with your profession, 0.017 2.278 0.023
No
below:
Na(M) = 0.0125V2 +0.0130V4 +0.3735D1 + 0.0210D2+ 0.0325D5 +0.0085D7 (7.2)
where, Na(M) = Expected number of accidents per year for motorcycle
V2 = Rear indicators, one working
V4 = Presence of right side mirror, no
D2 = Driver smokes, yes
D5 = Number of cigarettes per day

84
D7 = Are you satisfied with your profession?, no
7.4.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Motor Cycle

Sampling size of 7,000 Motorcycles was taken, 6,000 for model development and 1,000
for its verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.2, the number of
accidents per year was estimated using equation 7.2 for 1,000 Motorcycles and compared
with the actual number of accidents for the same Motorcycles. Figure 7.16 presents this
comparison. The estimated and actual numbers of accidents per year are in good
agreement.
2
Number of accidents per year
0
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901
Serial number of motorcycles
Figure 7.16: Verification of APM for Motorcycles
7.4.6 Conclusions from Motor Cycle Analysis

A detailed study of Motor Cycle was carried out to determine the effect of
vehicular/driver characteristic on the number of accidents. The conclusions drawn are
presented as under:
The damaged indicators/side mirrors are the main causes of accidents of Motorcycle.
Proper motor vehicle examination report of Motorcycle must be periodically issued by the
motor vehicle examination authority for ensuring the road safety.
85
The APM developed, equation 7.2, can be used for assessing the number of accidents by
selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of Motor Cycle for Lahore and
other cities of Punjab.
7.5 PASSENGER CAR
for passenger are presented in this section.
7.5.1 Survey Locations for Passenger Car

• Liberty Market
• Race Course
• New Garden Town
• Montgomery Road
• Railway Station
• Mall Road
• Lahore Cantt/Airport
• Rangmahal
• R.A Bazar
• U.E.T
• Neela Gumbad
86
• Akbari Mandi
• Data Darbar
• Badami Bagh
• Scheme More
• Samanabad Chowk
• Shalimar Garden
• Akbar Chowk
• Barkat Market
• Hall Road
• Wasanpura
• Singh Pura
• Chuna Mandi
• Chah Meeran
• Faiz Bagh
• Chamrah Mandi
• Taj Pura Scheme
• Sultanpura
• Mughalpur
• Baghbanpura
87
• China Scheme
• Misri Shah
• Garhi Shaho
• Gujarpura
• Grass Mandi
• Brandreth Road
• M.A.O. College
• Lahore Zoo
• Sabzi Mandi
• Mall Stat Bank
• Chouburji
• Bakar Mandi
• Badshahi Mosque
• Jahangir Tomb
• Museum
• Gulshan Iqbal
• Moon Market
• Main Market
• Cavalry Ground
88
• Defence
• Gowal Mandi
• Jallo Park
• Walton
• Shahdara Town
• WAPDA Town
• Township
• Shadman Market
• Gulshan Ravi
• Johar Town
• McLeod Road
• F.C College
• LUMS
• FAST
• Mayo Hospital
• Jinnah Hospital
89
• Awan Market
• Band Road
• Bhati Gate
• Lahore Hotel
• Wood Market
• Fazal Town
• Sanda Road
• Karim Park
• Shuja Colony
• Bilal Ganj

and driver’s characteristics of cars along with observations and discussion are given
below and typical frequency analysis table for passenger car is presented in Appendix-E3:
• The most of the cars have been used for private purposes. Less than 1% cars are
used as public transport.
• More than 50% of the cars are manufactured by M/s Pak Suzuki. It shows that
most of the people are financially weak.
• Most of the cars are new one as about 70% of the cars have make year as 2001
onwards. The larger quantity of new cars indicates the strong financial condition
of the masses but in actual the masses are financially weak. The reason for more
new cars is that most of the car owners have acquired their vehicles from bank
leasing facilities.
90
• Most of the cars have engine capacity of 800 cc. This aspect shows that most of
the drivers are not financially strong.
• More than 90% of the cars have their speedometers, odometers, temperature and
fuel gauges in working order. This is due to the fact that their cars are
comparatively new.
• About 3% of the cars have loose foot brakes and 2% have hand brakes out of
order. This small proportion is again due to the fact that the cars are not very old.
• About 2% of the cars have fire extinguisher available and 3% have reflecting
triangle in their cars.
• Only 2% of the car drivers use safety belts while driving. The proportion of
drivers violating safety precaution is huge. This aspect needs to be properly
addressed by traffic police.
• About 2% of the drivers do not have spare tyres and tools for changing tyres. This
aspect shows carelessness on driver’s attitude.
• 1% of the cars have their horns, 3% have wind shield washers and 2% have wind
shield wipers in non-working condition. These aspects indicate careless driving
behaviour.
• More than 30% of the cars have power steering and about 3% have excessive play
in the steering wheel. The excessive play in steering may cause serious accidents.
• In about 5% cars, left side or right side back view mirrors are not available. The
unavailability of back view mirrors may lead to serious accidents.
• About 15% cars have front parking light, 3% have rear parking lights, about 2% of
the cars have low or high beam, 2% of the cars have front or rear indicators and
about 1% of the cars have brake lights and reverse gear lights in non-working
condition. These factors indicate that drivers do not give due consideration to
maintenance of electrical work.
• About 3% of the cars have tyres with excessive wear. The excessive wear may
cause accidents especially in the rainy seasons.
91
• In case of 12% of the cars there do not exist number plates and 3% of the cars
have improper quality of number plates. This shows carelessness on driver’s part.
• About 6% of the cars have noisy exhaust sound system. Such cars drivers must be
fined as they are responsible for creating noise pollution.
• About 20% of the cars have scratches on glasses, 10% have scratches on wind
screen and at least 9% of the cars have any sign of damage on different parts of
the cars. This shows that about 9% vehicles came across some road incident.
• More than 95% of the cars have radio, cassette players or stereo deck installed.
The attention of traffic police is required in this aspect.
• More than 65% of vehicles have air conditioners and more than 75% of the cars
have air heater.
• 95% of the drivers are male and 5% are female.
• More than 99% of the drivers are Pakistani nationals and less than 1% are
foreigners.
• Age range of drivers is as under:
< 18 years 0.2 %
18 – 25 years 15.2 %
25 – 30 years 45.3 %
30 – 40 years 32.8 %
> 40 years 6.5 %
• The law enforcing agencies are required to ensure the young people less than 18
should not be allowed to drive the cars.
• The drivers of the car have different professionals. 15% of the drivers are
businessmen and 15% are students.
92
• The drivers of the cars have different qualification levels. 50% of drivers are
graduates.15% have post-graduate level of qualification. The rest have
qualification level of Intermediate or below.
• 40% of the drivers have driving experience of less than 10 years. 42% have 10–20
years and 15% have more than 20 years. Most of the drivers have 16,000 – 20,000
km/year run of their cars.
• All the drivers admit that they have met accidents in their driving life and more
than 95% admit that they come across such incidents during the last two years.
This aspect needs to be properly addressed as almost all the drivers have the
tendency of committing accidents.
• 44% the drivers are single and 56% are married. 48% have two kids. About 10%
have 4 or more children. Less than 1% drivers are physically unfit.
• 25% the drivers smoke and 90% of them have been smoking for the last 5 to 15
years. 81% of smokers smoke 16 to 20 cigarettes per day. The campaigns should
be initiated to inform the masses about the danger of smoking.
• 50% of the drivers have income range of Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 15,000/- per month.
This shows that the drivers are not financially strong.
• 3% drivers do not have driving license and 6% are unable to produce at the time
of survey. The traffic police are required to address this aspect.
• 90% of the drivers claim that they take their cars for periodic fitness check up and
their frequency is once a month.
• Majority of car drivers use CNG as fuel as it is evident from the following:
Petrol 20.3 %
Diesel 12.1 %
CNG 67.6 %
93
• 4% the vehicles have signs of severe accidents intensity. 70% of the accidents
occurred during evening or night. 8% of the drivers claim that they exceed speed
limit. The traffic police should ensure observance of the speed limit.
• 36% of the drivers have complained regarding bad behaviour of police. 99% claim
that they pay Rs. 200 per month to police.
• More than 40% of the drivers are not satisfied with their profession. This
dissatisfaction may be one of the causes of road accidents.
• 3% of the cars have excessive exhaust smoke. More than 60% drivers have some
type of insurance.
• 15% of the car drivers admit that they rarely or not strictly follow traffic rules.
More than 85% drivers have been fined to any offence in driving exposure. The
traffic police are required to ensure the observance of traffic rules.

special emphasis on the number of accidents occurred during the last two years due to
vehicular/driver’s characteristics of passenger cars. The results of four most significant
factors impacting the numbers of accident are given below and typical cross tabulation
analysis table for passenger car is presented in Appendix-F3:
a). Presence of any damage
Figure 7.17 indicates that more than 4% vehicles were involved in one or more accidents
during the last two years which have signs of damages on their bodies.
b). Musical instrument
Figure 7.18 shows that majority of cars have radio available and majority of such cars
were involved in one or more accidents during the last two years.
94
4
0.4% No 0%
0.1%
4
0.6% No

Yes Yes
0.5% 0.1%
3 3
0.2% 0.6%
1.8% 0.5%
2 2
0.1% 1.8%
92.3% 12.4%
1 1
4.5% 84.0%
0 1000 2000 3000 0 1000 2000 3000

Presence of any dam age count Radio count
accidents and presence of any accidents and availability of
damage musical instrument
0% 0.1%
0.3%
4 4 0%
0.1% Post graduation 0% 3+

0.1%
Graduation
2
0.1% Intermediate 0.3%
0.6% 3 0% 1
3 0% Matric or below 0.1%
0%
0.4% 1.5%
2 0.9% 2 0.5%
0.3% 0%
0.4%
12.3% 2.4%
49.5% 1 8.7%
1 21.3% 85.4%
13.4%
0 1000 2000 3000

0 1000 2000 3000
Educational qualification count Accidents in life tim e count
Figure 7.19 Relation between number ofFigure 7.20 Relation between number of
accidents and qualifications accidents and accident in life
time
c). Qualifications
Figure 7.19 shows that more than 13% people involved in accidents are with qualification
matric or below. It is also evident from Figure 7.26 that well educated drivers may be
involved in traffic accidents.
95
d). Accident in life time
Figure 7.20 shows that more than 80% drivers have been involved in accidents during the
last two years who were previously involved in such incidents in their driving experience.
From the aforementioned cross-tabulation analysis, it is quite evident that the traffic
accidents do not depend on only one parameter. Rather their occurrence is affected by a
number vehicular and driver’s characteristics. This fact emphasizes the need to develop
APM for Passenger Car based on various significant vehicular and driver’s
characteristics.
7.5.4 Accident Prediction Model for Passenger Car

For the development of model, contributions of four most significant vehicular and
drivers’ characteristics have been identified using correlations method available in the
four most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics (independent variables)using
standard error of estimate values for the linear regression analysis are respectively 0.888,
0.888 and 0.369 as shown in Table 7.5. Table 7.6 presents the output of the linear
regression analyses for two years span using the SPSS software. In order to get the
coefficient values for one year, the standardized coefficient values given in Table 7.6
were divided by 2. The products of coefficient values and the respective variables have
been added and shown on the right side of equation 7.3.
Table 7.5: Model summary for passenger car

0.942 0.888 0.888 0.369
96
Table 7.6: Coefficients (a) for passenger car

Variable
Coefficients
Presence of any damage, right side rear 0.370 5.921 0.000
corner, Yes
Presence of musical instrument, Yes 0.545 68.300 0.000
Educational qualification, primary 0.017 32.821 0.005
below:
Na(PC) = 0.0185V3 +0.2440D1+ 0.2725D3+ 0.0085D8 (7.3)
where, Na(PC) = Expected number of accidents per year for passenger car
V3 = Presence of any damage, right side rear corner, yes
D3 = Presence of musical instrument, yes
D8 = Educational qualification, Primary
2

0
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701
Serial number of passenger cars
Figure 7.21: Verification of APM for Passenger Cars
97
7.5.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Passenger Car

Sampling size of 3,800 Passenger Cars was taken, 3,000 for model development and 800
for its verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.3, the number of
accidents per year was estimated using equation 7.3 for 800 Passenger cars and compared
with the actual number of accidents for the same Passenger Cars. Figure 7.21 presents this
comparison. The estimated and actual numbers of accidents per year are in good
agreement.
7.5.6 Conclusions from Passenger Car Analysis

A detailed study was conducted to see the effect of vehicular/driver characteristic of cars
on the number of accident. The conclusions drawn are as under:
The damaged indicators, minor damages and overall unsatisfactory condition of cars are
the causes of their accidents. Proper motor vehicle examination report of cars should be
periodically issued by the motor vehicle examination authority for ensuring the road
safety.
Playing of musical instrument is also resulting in accidents. Their use while driving the
vehicle should be strictly prohibited by the law enforcing agencies.
The APM presented by equation 7.3 can be used for estimation of number of accidents by
selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of cars for Lahore and other
cities of Punjab.
7.6 WAGON
for wagons are presented in this section.
7.6.1 Survey Locations for Wagon

The following wagon routes were selected for the survey (Appendix D4):
• Railway Station to Multan Road
• Railway Station to Raiwind
• Railway Station to Kahna Nau
98
• Railway Station to Sanda Kalan
• R.A Bazar to Sanda Kalan
• Railway Station to Taj Pura
• Bhati Gate to Nishat Colony
• General Bus Stand to Wahga
• General Bus Stand to Town Ship
• Railway Station to 7UP
• Scheme More to Liaqat Chowk
• Scheme More to Shahzada Peerh
• Samanabad to Bund Road
• M.A.O. College to Krishan Nagar
• Data Darbar to Sanda Kalan
• Railway Station to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Shadbagh
• Lowry Adda to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Kot Khawaja Saeed
• Railway Station Back to Baghbanpura
• Shalimar Garden to Mughalpura
• Mughalpura to Dharampura
• Daroghawala Chowk to Jallomore
• Akbar Chowk to Link Road
• Badami Bagh to Liaqat Chowk
• Generl Bus Stand to Kahna Nau

99
• Rang Mahal to Bakarmandi
• Rang Mahal to Pakki Thathi
• Railway Station to Judicial Colony
• Railway Station to Pakki Thathi
• Shah Pur Interchange to Kot Lakh Pat Jail
• Thokar Niaz Baig to Railway Station
• Shahdra Town to Liaqat Chowk
• Railway Station to Green Town
• Railway Station to Kamonki
• Rang Mahal to Nonarian Chowk
• Railway Station to Nonarian Chowk
• Daroghawala to Bakarmandi
• Kotlakhpat Phatak to Shokat Khanam
• Railway Station to Liaqatabad
• Railway Station to Judicial Colony

and driver’s characteristics of wagons along with discussion are given below and typical
frequency analysis table for wagon is presented in Appendix-E4:
• Safety belts are not available in about 75% wagons. Only 2% of the drivers use
safety belts while driving. Non-availability of safety belts in wagons and least
importance of drivers to safety belts is alarming and needs special attention of law
enforcing agencies.
100
• About 83% of the wagons surveyed are being used as public transport whereas the
remaining 17% have been used for some other purpose. Majority of wagons are
being used as an entity of public transport fleet.
• About 15% of the drivers are owners of the vehicles whereas the remaining
drivers are doing the job as employee. This small proportion of ownership of
wagons reflects the weak financial condition of wagon drivers.
• More than 75% of the wagons are manufactured by M/S Toyota.
• About 90% of the wagons bear make year as 2000 or earlier. It means that only a
few people have purchased new wagons after the year 2000. This trend is due to
the fact that Government had imposed ban on wagons to be used as public
transport vehicles on a number of routes in Lahore city.
• More than 90% of the wagons have their speedometer in working order and about
80% have their odometer in working condition.
• 60% of the wagons have their fuel gauges, 53% their temperature gauges and 32%
their battery gauges in working order.
• 3% of the wagons have loose foot brakes and about 6% have non-working hand
brakes. Although this reflects small portion of wagons with non-working brakes,
however, these wagons can cause serious accidents.
• Only 2% of the wagons possess fuel extinguishers and about 5% have reflecting
triangle available. It shows that the careless behaviour of wagon runners towards
the safety of passengers.
• More than 50% of the wagons do not possess spare tyres and in about 47%
wagons tools for changing tyres are not available. This aspect again reflects the
carelessness on the part of wagon runners towards the comfort and importance of
time of passengers if a tyre of the vehicle gets punctured during journey time.
• More than 65% of the wagons have non-working wind shield washers and about
22% have wind shield wipers in non-working condition. These two factors reflect
that the wagon drivers do not give due consideration towards the maintenance of
their vehicles.
101
• Excessive play in steering wheel is seen in about 10% of the wagons. Such things
should be given due consideration to avoid any accidents.
• Almost 97% of the wagons have all the three types of back view mirrors. This is a
positive aspect on part of wagon runners.
• More than 25% of the wagons have either front or rear parking lights in non
working condition. This fact may cause accidents.
• More than 15% of the wagons do not have either low or high beams in working
order. In more than 20% of the wagons, either front or rear indicators have been
observed out of order. More than 30% of the wagons have non-working brake
lights and about 60% have reverse gear light in non-working condition. More than
15% of the wagons have tyres with excessive wear. These aspects show that the
drivers do not maintain their vehicles and are not serious about their safety and the
safety of the passengers. The law enforcing agencies should give importance to
these factors.
• All the wagons have number plates installed but 6% of them have plates of
improper quality. Noisy exhaust system has been observed in case of 2% of the
wagons.
• Presence of scratches has been noticed in more than 30% vehicles. Presence of
any damage is noticeable in more than 50% of the wagons. These aspects reflect
the massive involvement of wagons in traffic accidents.
• Any musical device such as radio, cassette players and stereo deck has been
observed in more than 40% of the wagons. The musical instruments must be
banned in this part of public transport fleet
• Availability of air-conditioners and heaters has been seen only in fewer cases.
• All the drivers are local males and age range of more than 75% of the drivers is
noted as 25 to 40 years. The qualification level of more than 90% drivers is matric
or below.
• About 70% of drivers have driving experience of 11 to 30 years and their

exposure per year is 16,000 to 20,000 km.
102
• About 49% of the drivers claim that they did not involve in any accident in their
driving experience and about 58% have the same claim for the last two years. Rest
about 40% came across accidents. This is a significant amount of involvement of
wagons in accidents and demands to educate drivers to follow traffic rules for
their lives and safety of the passengers.
• The marital status of 35% of the drivers is single and the rest are married. 37%
have no kid and about 30% have 4 or more children.
• More than 40% of the drivers have been seen to be smokers puffing 16–20
cigarettes per day. This percentage is alarming and requires informing drivers of
the severity of smoking.
• Monthly income range of Rs. 5,000–10,000 is observed for more than 80%
drivers. This shows that majority of the drivers have severe financial problems
and this may affect road safety.
• All the drivers claim that they had issued the driving licenses but about 18% could
not produce the license on demand. The traffic police must ensure frequent
checking of licenses.
• In about 3% of the vehicles there have been found signs of severe accident
intensity and more than 90% of the accidents occurred during evening or night
time.
• More than 60% of drivers admit that they exceed speed limit and more than 67%
of drivers admit that they do not strictly follow the traffic rules. More than 95% of
them have been fined once or more in any offence during their driving experience.
The traffic police are required to address these aspects to enhance road safety.

vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Wagons. The results of three most significant factors
impacting the numbers of accident are given below and typical cross tabulation analysis
table for wagon is presented in Appendix-F4.
103
a). Accident in life time

Figure 7.22 indicates that more than 50% involved in accidents during the last two years
have also been involved in accidents in their driving life.
1.8%
1.2% No

6.5% 7.7%
2 1.2% 2
1.2% 6 4.1% Yes
0%
0% 5
2.4% 4
1.2%
2.9% 9.5%
1 1.2% 3 1
7.1% 20.1%
14.7% 2
0%
1
0%
0% 0 35.5%
1.2%
0 1.8% 0
3.5% 23.1%
2.9%
49.4%
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200

Accidents in life time count Cassette player count
accidents and accidents in life accidents and availability of
time musical instrument
20 or more
2
50% 15
10years
1
25%
0
20%
0 50 100 150 200

Sm oking years count
Figure 7.24 Relation between number of

accidents and smoking years
b). Cassette player
Figure 7.23 shows that at about 25% instances, the wagons having cassette players in
working condition have been involved in traffic accidents during the last two years.
104
c). Smoking years
Figure 7.24 shows that 7520% wagon drivers, habitual of smoking, have been involved in
accidents during the last two years.
The cross-tabulation analysis for Wagon shows that traffic accidents have been occurring
due to multiple vehicular and driver’s characteristics. These are not caused by one aspect
of driver or vehicle. In order to determine the exact cause of number of accidents per year
for Wagons, the development of APM is necessary.
7.6.4 Accident Prediction Model for Wagon

For the development of model for wagons, contributions of three most significant drivers’
characteristics have been identified using correlations method available in the SPSS
software. The linear multiple regression analysis techniques has been employed to
three most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics (independent variables) using
Table 7.7: Model summary for wagon

0.865 0.749 0.744 0.442
Table 7.8: Coefficients (a) for wagon

Variable
Coefficients
Presence of cassette player, Yes 0.173 3.982 0.000
Smoking years 0.101 2.252 0.026
A Dependent Variable: Accidents in Last Two Years
105
below:
Na(W) = 0.3680D1 + 0.0865D3 + 0.0505D6 (7.4)
where, Na(W) = Expected number of accidents per year for wagon
D3 = Presence of musical instrument, yes
D6 = Smoking years
2
0
1 6 11 16 21
Serial number of wagons
Figure 7.25: Verification of APM for Wagons
7.6.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Wagon

Sampling size of 195 Wagons was taken, 170 for model development and 25 for its
verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.4, the number of accidents
per year was estimated using equation 7.4 for 25 Wagons and compared with the actual
number of accidents for the same Wagons. Figure 7.25 presents this comparison. The
estimated and actual numbers of accidents per year are in good agreement.
106
7.6.6 Conclusions from Wagon Analysis

An extensive study of wagons was carried out to study the effect of vehicular/driver
characteristic on the number of accident. The conclusions drawn are as under:
Playing of musical instrument while driving the wagons is resulting in accidents. Its use
while driving the vehicle should be strictly prohibited by the law enforcing agencies.
Road safety campaigns and traffic education programmes should be frequently arranged
by the traffic management agencies, through workshops, print and electronic media, to
educate the drivers about the traffic rules, speed limits and penalties on violation of traffic
rules.
The APM developed, equation 7.4, can be employed to forecast number of accidents by
selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of wagons for Lahore and other
areas of Punjab.
7.7 BUS
for bus are presented in this section.
7.7.1 Survey Locations for Bus

The following bus routes were selected for the survey (Appendix D5):
• Railway Station to Multan Road
• Railway Station to Raiwind
• Railway Station to Kahna Nau
• Railway Station to Sanda Kalan
• R.A Bazar to Sanda Kalan
• Bhati Gate to Nishat Colony
• General Bus Stand to Wahga
• General Bus Stand to Town Ship

107
• Railway Station to 7UP
• Scheme More to Liaqat Chowk
• Scheme More to Shahzada Peerh
• Samanabad to Bund Road
• M.A.O College to Krishan Nagar
• Data Darbar to Sanda Kalan
• Railway Station to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Shadbagh
• Lorry Adda to Data Darbar
• Railway Station Back to Kot Khawaja Saeed
• Railway Station Back to Baghbanpura
• Shalimar Garden to Mughalpura
• Mughalpura to Dharampura
• Daroghawala Chowk to Jallomore
• Akbar Chowk to Link Road
• General Bus Stand to Azadi Chowk
• Railway Station to Defence
• Old Ravi Pull to Shoukat Khanam
• Railway Station to Salamat Pura
• Railway Station to Youhanabad
• Railway Station to WAPDA Town
• Railway Station to Green Town
• R.A Bazar to Green Town

108
• Railway Station to Social Welfare Centre
• Railway Station to Jaloo
• General Bus Stand to Chungi Amar Sadhu
• Old Ravi Pull to Baggrian
• Railway Station to Javaid Nagar
• Jaloo More to Thokar Niaz Baig
• Mayo Hospital to Kot Abdul Malik
• General Bus Stand to Rohi Nalla
• Rang Mahal to Bakarmandi

Based on the analysis using SPSS, the results of frequency analysis of vehicular and
driver’s characteristics of buses along with observations and discussion are given below
and typical frequency analysis table for bus is presented in Appendix-E5:
• Only 2% of the drivers are owners of the buses. A large majority of drivers drive
the buses on certain salaries.
• Almost all the buses are used as public transport. More than 80% of the buses
have make year as 2000 or onwards. It means that majority of buses are new.
• Almost all the buses have speedometer in working condition whereas about 85%
of them have their odometer in working condition. About 80% of the buses have
temperature gauges in working condition and 89% have fuel gauges in working
condition and 78% have battery gauges in working order. Majority of the buses
have these items in working order as the buses are comparatively new.
• About 7% of the buses have loose foot brakes and about 2% have non working
hand brakes. Although only small proportion of buses have brakes problem, yet
this issue needs proper attention as it may cause serious accidents.
109
• In about 30% of the buses fire extinguishers are present and only 5% have
reflecting triangle. One hundred percent compliance regarding availability of fire
extinguishers must be ensured for the safety.
• Only 50% of the buses have spare tyres and tools for changing tyres available.
The buses without spare tyres and tools should be fined to save the precious time
of passengers.
• More than 50% of the buses have wind shield washers in non-working condition
about 5% have wind shield wipers in non-working condition. More than 80% of
the buses have power steering and 2% have excessive play in the steering. These
aspects require proper attention of the bus runners as they may cause serious
accidents.
• About 10% of the buses have front or rear parking lights in non-working
condition. About 6% of the buses have non-working low beams. About 10% of
the buses have non-working front or rear indicators. About 15% of the buses have
out of order brakes lights and 32% have gear back lights in non-working
condition. The bus runners are required to pay attention towards maintenance of
electrical items to avoid serious road incidents especially during night time.
• About 2% of the buses have tyres with excessive wear. The attention of traffic
police is required in this aspect to avoid accidents in general and during rains in
particular.
• Almost all the buses have number plates of good quality. This is positive aspect
on the part of bus drivers.
• About 5% buses have noisy exhaust sound. More than 35% of the buses have
scratches present on the glasses and wind screens. These factors show careless
behaviour of drivers.
• About 25% of the buses have sign of damages on any part of the buses. It reflects
the involvement of 25% buses in any form of road incident.
• About 7% of the buses have fitted radios, cassette players or stereo decks. The
musical instruments must be banned in buses to address the safety of road traffic.
110
• Air conditioner is available only in about 4% of the buses whereas about 5% of

them have heaters available.
• All the drivers are male having Pakistani nationality.
• The age of drivers of buses is as under:
25 – 30 years 10 %
30 – 40 years 36 %
> 40 years 54 %
• 91% of the drivers have educational qualification as matric or below and more
than 90% the drivers have driving experience of 10+ years. Almost all the drivers
drive their vehicles ranging from 16,000 – 20,000 km per year.
• About 15% of the drivers admit that they met accidents in the last two years. The
law enforcing agencies must ensure strict observance traffic rules.
• Only 6% of the drivers are single, the rest are married. About 30% of the drivers
have 4 or more kids.
• About 30% of the drivers smoke and 20% of them have been smoking for more
than 10 years. Moreover 20% of them smoke more than 15 cigarettes per day. The
smoking habit shows worries on the part of drivers and needs proper attention to
avoid traffic accidents.
• 20% of the drivers earn Rs. 5,000/- or less per month. This reflects that these
drivers are leading hard life and this aspect may cause accidents.
• Almost all the drivers have driving license and only 1% do not have license at the
time of survey. Almost all the drivers claim that they take their vehicles for
periodic fitness check up and 70% of them claim that the frequency of fitness
check up is once a week. The 30% drivers not giving any priority towards
frequent fitness check up their buses may cause serious accidents.
• 8% of the drivers claim for the severe intensity of accidents and more than 80% of
the accidents occurred during evening or night time.
111
• More than 50% of the drivers admit that they exceed the speed limit. The speed
limit observance is ensured by the traffic police for road safety.
• About 35% of the drivers complain about the bad behaviour of police. This aspect
requires attention of higher authorities of traffic police.
• About 80% of the buses possess comprehensive insurance.
• More than 50% of the drivers admit that they rarely or not strictly follow traffic
rules and almost all the drivers have been fined top any offence in their driving
experience. This aspect is alarming and needs to be properly addressed by traffic
police for road safety.

vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Bus. The results of five most significant factors
table for bus is presented in Appendix-F5:
a). Safety belt
Figure 7.26 shows that in more than 90% buses safety belts are not available. Moreover
about 15% bus drivers, not using safety belts, have been involved in traffic incidents
b). Washer condition
Figure 7.27 shows that about 2% buses with non-working wipers have been involved in
traffic incidents during the last two years.
c). Presence of any damage
Figures 7.28 shows that more than 15% buses have damage signs on their bodies and
more than 5% buses having signs of damages have been involved in traffic accidents
112
Not available
12.0% Not w orn 1.6% Not working

1 1 Working
2.5% 29.0%
80.5% 3.2%
0 0
5.0% 66.1%
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200

Safety belt count Wind shield w asher condition count
Figure 7.26 Relation between number Figure 7.27 Relation between number
of accidents and safety belt of accidents and wiashers
conditions
No 12.0%
10.5%
1 Yes Once a
1 0%
5.9% month
2.5%
Once in two
weeks
72.4% Once a week

6.0%
0
11.2% 0 11.5%
68.0%
0 50 100 150 200

Presence of dam age(right side door) 0 50 100 150 200
count Vehicle routine checkup count
accidents and presence of accidents and vehicle check-
damage on door up
113
1.0%
Accidents in last two years 6
3.5%
1 2
10.0%
0% 1
0
0%
0%
0
0%
85.5%
0 50 100 150 200

Accidents in life tim e count
accidents and accident in life time
d). Vehicle check-up
Figure 7.29 shows that more than 10% buses have been involved in traffic accidents
during the last two years whose vehicle check up frequency is once a month.
e). Accidents in life time
Figure 7.30 shows that at more than 10% instances bus drivers, having past record of
committing accidents, have been involved in traffic incidents during the last two years.
The cross-tabulation analysis carried out for Bus indicates that the causes of road
accidents occurred due to buses are many fold. To accurately determine the effect of
different vehicular and driver’s characteristics on traffic accidents, it is necessary to
determine some relationship between annual number of accidents and various significant
vehicular and driver’s characteristics. Therefore APM for Bus has been developed and its
details are presented in the following section.
7.7.4 Accident Prediction Model for Bus

For the development of model for buses, contributions of five most significant vehicular
and drivers’ characteristics have been identified using correlations method available in the
five most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics (independent variables) using
114
Table 7.9: Model summary for bus

0.913 0.833 0.829 0.157
Table 7.10: Coefficients (a) for bus

Variable
Coefficients
Safety belts, Available but not worn 0.062 2.043 0.042
Condition of wind shield wiper, Not working 0.115 3.154 0.002
Presence of any damage right side door, Yes 0.087 2.792 0.006
Number of times of routine check-up of 0.409 10.659 0.000
vehicle, Once a month
below:
Na(B) = 0.0435V3+ 0.0575V5 + 0.2710D1 + 0.2045D10 + 0.0310D11 (7.5)
where, Na(B) = Expected number of accidents per year for bus
V3 = Presence of any damage right side door, yes
V5= Condition of wind shield wiper, not working
D10 = Number of times of routine check up of vehicle, once a month
115
D11 = Safety belts, available but not worn

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Serial number of buses
Figure 7.31: Verification of APM for Buses
7.7.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Bus

Sampling size of 230 Buses was taken, 200 for model development and 30 for its
per year was estimated using equation 7.5 for 30 Buses and compared with the actual
number of accidents for the same Buses. Figure 7.31 presents this comparison. The
7.7.6 Conclusions from Bus Analysis

A detailed study of buses was carried out to study the effect of vehicular/driver’s
characteristic on the number of accident. The conclusions drawn are as under:
The scratches on wind screen and other minor damages are the main causes of accidents
of buses. Proper motor vehicle examination report of Buses should be periodically issued
by the motor vehicle examination authority for ensuring the road safety.
Use of safety belts while driving should be made compulsory for bus drivers.
The APM developed, equation 7.5, can be used for assessing the annual number of
accidents by selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of buses for
Lahore and other areas of Punjab.
116
7.8 AUTO RICKSHAW
for motorcycle are presented in this section.
7.8.1 Survey Locations for Auto Rickshaw

The following survey locations (Appendix D6) were selected for survey of auto
rickshaws:
• Liberty Market
• Race Course
• New Garden Town
• Montgomery Road
• Railway Station
• Mall Road
• Rangmahal
• R.A Bazar
• U.E.T
• Neela Gumbad
• Akbari Mandi
• Data Darbar
• Badami Bagh
117
• Scheme Mor
• Samanabad Chowk
• Shalimar Garden
• Akbar Chowk
• Barkat Market
• Hall Road
• Wasanpura
• Singh Pura
• Chuna Mandi
• Chah Meeran
• Faiz Bagh
• Chamrah Mandi
• Taj Pura Scheme
• Sultanpura
• Mughalpur
• Baghbanpura
• China Scheme
• Misri Shah

118
• Garhi Shaho
• Gujarpura
• Grass Mandi
• Brandreth Road
• Govt. College
• M.A.O College
• Lahore Zoo
• Sabzi Mandi
• Mall Stat Bank
• Chouburji
• Bakar Mandi
• Badshahi Mosque
• Jahangir Tomb
• Museum
• Gulshan Iqbal
• Moon Market
• Main Market
• Cavalry Ground
• Defence
• Gawal Mandi
• Jallo Park
119
• Walton
• Shahdara Town
• WAPDA Town
• Township
• Shadman Market
• Gulshan Ravi
• Johar Town
• McLeod Road
• F.C College
• LUMS
• FAST
• Mayo Hospital
• Jinnah Hospital
• Aswan Market
• Shah Nor Studio
• Band Road
120
• Bhatia Gate
• Lahore Hotel
• Wood Market
• Fatal Town
• Sandal Road
• Kari Park
• Shoji Colony
• Bill Ganja

and driver’s characteristics of auto rickshaws along with observations and discussion are
presented below and typical frequency analysis table for auto rickshaw is presented in
Appendix-E6:
• All the auto rickshaws are being used as public transport and are owned by
drivers. 36% of the auto rickshaws have been manufactured by M/s VESPA and
the remaining 64% by other manufacturers. About 50% of the auto rickshaws
have make year 2000 or before. The rest have make year 2001 or after 2001. None
of the auto rickshaw surveyed has its speedometer in working condition.
• Almost all the auto rickshaws have normal foot and hand brakes. This is very
positive aspect on part of rickshaw drivers.
• About 39% of the auto rickshaws have wind shield washers in non-working
condition. In about 18% of the auto rickshaws, tools for changing tires are not
available. These aspects indicate careless behavior on part of drivers.
• About 4% of the auto rickshaws have their horn in non-working condition. In case
of about 19% auto rickshaws, back view mirrors are not available. About 19% of
the auto rickshaws do not have either low beam or high beam in working
121
condition. About 30% of the auto rickshaws have either one or both brake lights in
non-working condition. These aspects show that the drivers do not give proper
attention towards electrical maintenance of their vehicles, may cause serious
accidents especially during night time.
• In case of about 5% of the auto rickshaws, there do not exist number plate and
about 15% have number plate of improper quality. These factors show careless
driving behaviour.
• About 89% of the auto rickshaws have noisy exhaust sound condition. The noisy
exhaust system is a trade mark of auto rickshaw drivers. This aspect requires to be
addressed by traffic police to control noise pollution.
• About 10% of the auto rickshaws have scratches on their wind screen. More than
10% of the auto rickshaws have presence of any damage on their bodies. This
proportion of drivers has been involved in any form of traffic incident.
• About 3% of the auto rickshaws drivers have installed radio or cassette players or
stereo deck in their rickshaws. For ensuring road safety the musical instruments
should be banned in auto rickshaws.
• All the drivers are male belonging to Pakistan.
• The age range of the drivers is as under:
18 – 25 years 6.6 %
25 – 30 years 51.1 %
30 – 40 years 39.3 %
> 40 years 3.0 %
• More than 95% of the drivers have qualification level of matric or below. This is a
huge proportion of drivers and road safety campaigns are necessary for them to
enhance traffic safety.
• The driving experience of the drivers is as under:
1 – 10 years 30.8 %
122
11 – 20 years 57.9 %
> 21 years 11.3 %
• All the drivers claim that they run their vehicles 3,000 km or above per year.
• All the drivers admit that they met accidents in their driving life and only 1%
claim that they did not meet any accident during the last two years. This is very
alarming situation and they require training on road safety and traffic rules.
• 41% of the drivers are single and the rest 59% are married. 42% of the drivers do
not have any kid and 2% the drivers have 4 children.
• More than 65% of the drivers smoke and more than 40% have been smoking for
more than ten years. 67% drivers smoke 21 or more cigarettes per day. More than
90% the drivers earn Rs. 5,000/- or less per month. These aspects show the
worries and financial hardship of drivers.
• About 2% drivers do not possess driving license and 2.5% drivers were unable to
produce license at the time of survey.
• More than 95% of the drivers claim that they take their vehicles for periodic
fitness check up and frequency of fitness checking is once a month. Almost all the
auto rickshaws have CNG kit installed.
• Almost all the auto rickshaws have minor accident intensity and more than 80%
the accidents occurred in noon time. More than 80% of the drivers admit that they
exceed the speed limit. These aspects show that most of the auto rickshaw drivers
do not obey traffic rules.
• The drivers inform that more than 20% of the police behave badly whereas only
3% passengers behave in a bad manner. None of the drivers have any type of
insurance.
• Most of the drivers are of the view that improvement in road standard is badly
needed.
• More than 95% of the drivers have been fined to any offence in their driving
experience and most of the drivers admit that they use cell phone while driving.
123

vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Auto Rickshaw. The results of four most significant
factors impacting the numbers of accident are given below and typical cross tabulation
analysis table for auto rickshaw is presented in Appendix-F6:
a). Qualifications
Figure 7.321 shows that more than 90% auto rickshaw drivers possess qualification level
of matric or below and more than 90% have been involved in traffic accidents during the
last two years.
0% Accidents in last two years 0%

0%
Intermediate
2 0.9% 2 0.8%
0% Matric 0%
3
0%
Middle 2
4.4% Primary
0.2% 1
54.9% Illiterate
1 33.9% 1 22.2%
3.9% 76.0%
1.1%
0% 0%
0.9%
0 0% 0 0%
0% 1.0%
0%
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500
Educational qualification count Accidents in life tim e count
accidents and qualifications accidents and accidents in life
time
b). Accidents in life time

Figure 7.33 shows that more than 90% auto rickshaw drivers have been involved in traffic
accidents during the last two years whose past record also shows accident involvement.
c). Improvements in road
Figure 7.34 shows that more than 30% auto rickshaw drivers involved in traffic accidents
during the last two years consider road quality a cause.
124
d). Cell phone usage
Figure 7.35 shows that 70% auto rickshaw drivers using cell phone while driving have
been found to be involved in traffic accidents during the last two years.
0%
Vehicle checking
0% No

1.0%
2 0%
2
Improving roads 0.8% Yes
0%
Safety compaign
Enforcement
16.4%
37.8% 28.6%
1 1
30.3%
69.8%
14.3%
0%
0% 0.2%
0 0
1.0%
0.6%
0%
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500
Improvement count Cell phone usage w hile driving count
accidents and improvements in accidents and cell phone
roads usage
The cross-tabulation analysis indicates that the occurrence of traffic accidents due to Auto
Rickshaw does not depend upon one vehicular or driver’s factor, rather they are
happening owing to combined effect of four significant vehicular and driver’s
characteristics. This important aspect necessitates the need to develop an APM for Auto
Rickshaw based on most significant parameters.
7.8.4 Accident Prediction Model for Auto Rickshaw

For the development of model for auto rickshaws, contributions of four most significant
vehicular and drivers’ characteristics have been identified using correlations method
available in the SPSS software. The linear multiple regression analysis techniques has
been employed to develop APM relating the number of accidents for two years
(dependent variable) and four most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics
(independent variables) using the SPSS software. The model summary comprising R-
squared, adjusted R-squared and standard error of estimate values for the linear regression
analysis are respectively 0.938, 0.938 and 0.252 as shown in Table 7.11. Table 7.12
presents the output of the linear regression analyses for two years span using the SPSS
125
software. In order to get the coefficient values for one year, the standardized coefficient
values given in Table 7.12 were divided by 2. The products of coefficient values and the
respective variables have been added and shown on the right side of equation 7.6.
Table 7.11: Model summary for auto rickshaw

0.969 0.938 0.938 0.252
Table 7.12: Coefficients (a) for auto rickshaw

Variable
Coefficients
Educational qualification, Middle 0.033 2.458 0.014
In your view how is the existing roads 0.061 4.481 0.000
condition and how it affects your
performance, what are your suggestions
for improvements?, improving road
standards
Do you use cell phone while driving?, yes 0.439 17.840 0.000
below:
Na (AR) = 0.2510D1 + 0.2195D4 + 0.01650D9 + 0.03050D12 (7.6)
where, Na(AR) = Expected number of accidents per year for auto rickshaw
D4 = Do you use cell phone while driving?, yes
D9 = Educational qualification, middle
D12 = In your view how is the existing roads condition and how it affects your
performance, what are your suggestions for improvements?, improving road standards
126
7.8.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Auto Rickshaw

Sampling size of 600 Auto Rickshaws was taken, 500 for model development and 100 for
its verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.6, the number of
accidents per year was estimated using equation 7.6 for 100 Auto Rickshaws and
compared with the actual number of accidents for the same Auto Rickshaws. Figure 7.36
presents this comparison. The estimated and actual numbers of accidents per year are in
good agreement.
2
1 Estimated number of accidents per year
0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
Serial number of auto rickshaws
Figure 7.36: Verification of APM for Auto Rickshaws
7.8.6 Conclusions from Auto Rickshaw Analysis

An extensive study of Auto Rickshaws was carried out to study the effect of
vehicular/driver characteristic on the number of accident. The conclusions drawn are as
under:
Use of cell phone by the drivers while driving the Auto Rickshaws is resulting in
accidents. Its use while driving the vehicle should be strictly prohibited by the law
enforcing agencies.
APM developed shown by equation 7.6, can be used for prediction of number of
accidents by selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of Auto
Rickshaws for Lahore and other cities of Punjab.
127
7.9 PICKUP
for Pick-ups are presented in this section.
7.9.1 Survey Locations for Pickup

• Liberty Market
• Race Course
• New Garden Town
• Montgomery Road
• Railway Station
• Mall Road
• Rangmahal
• R.A Bazar
• U.E.T
• Neela Gumbad
• Akbari Mandi
• Data Darbar
• Badami Bagh
128
• Scheme Mor
• Samanabad Chowk
• Shalimar Garden
• Akbar Chowk
• Barkat Market
• Hall Road
• Wasanpura
• Singh Pura
• Chuna Mandi
• Chah Meeran
• Faiz Bagh
• Chamrah Mandi
• Taj Pura Scheme
• Sultanpura
• Mughalpur
• Baghbanpura
• China Scheme
• Misri Shah

129
• Garhi Shaho
• Gujarpura
• Grass Mandi
• Brandreth Road
• M.A.O. College
• Lahore Zoo
• Sabzi Mandi
• Mall Stat Bank
• Chouburji
• Bakar Mandi
• Badshahi Mosque
• Jahangir Tomb
• Museum
• Gulshan Iqbal
• Moon Market
• Main Market
• Cavalry Ground
• Defence
• Gowal Mandi
• Jallo Park
130
• Walton
• Shahdara Town
• WAPDA Town
• Township
• Shadman Market
• Gulshan Ravi
• Johar Town
• McLeod Road
• F.C College
• LUMS
• FAST
• Mayo Hospital
• Jinnah Hospital
• Awan Market
• Band Road
131
• Bhati Gate
• Lahore Hotel
• Wood Market
• Fazal Town
• Sanda Road
• Karim Park
• Shuja Colony
• Bilal Ganj

and driver’s characteristics of pick-ups along with discussion are given below and typical
frequency analysis table for pickup is presented in Appendix-E7:
• Safety belts are not available in 84% of the pickups but 15% drivers do not want
to wear belt even if the safety belts are available. This aspect needs to be
addressed by the traffic police.
• 28% of the pickups have been used for private purposes and the rest are used for
commercial purpose. More than 75% of the pickups have been owned by the
drivers and the rest have been driving the vehicles as employees.
• About 92% vehicles have make year 2000 or earlier. It shows most of the vehicles
are old ones.
• More than 90% of the pickups have their speedometers and odometers in working
condition. About 60% of the pickups have their temperature, fuel and battery
gauges in working order.
• More than 40% of the pickups have loose foot brakes and about 10% have hand
brakes in non-working condition. Only 3% of the pickups have fire extinguishers
132
and 2% have reflecting triangle available. The loose brakes and non availability
are real traffic safety hazards.
• In about 20% of the pickups, spare tyre and tools for changing tyres are
unavailable. This aspect shows careless driving attitude.
• More than 20% pickups have horns in non-working condition. More than 85% of
the pickups have wind shield washers and more than 40% have wind shield wipers
in non-working condition. These aspects may cause serious accidents.
• More than 30% of the pickups have excessive play in the steering wheel. In about
35% of the pickups, left side, right side and centre back view mirrors are not
available. This shows carelessness on the part of drivers.
• More than 40% of the pickups have front or rear parking lights in non-working
condition. About 10% of the pickups have either high or low beams in non-
working condition. In about 40% of the pickups have either front or rear indicators
in non-working condition. More than 25% of the pickups have out of order brake
light. More than 50% pickups have reverse gear lights in non-working condition.
A lot of drivers do not pay attention towards maintenance of electrical parts, low
and high beams and indicators. This may cause serious accidents.
• More than 25% of the pickups have tyres with excessive wear. Such vehicles may
involve in serious accidents especially during rains.
• Number plates do not exist in case of 8% of vehicles and more than 35% of the
pickups have number plates of improper quality, reflecting carelessness on the
part of drivers.
• More than 35% of the vehicles have noisy exhaust system and hence creating a lot
of noise pollution.
• More than 50% of the vehicles have scratches on either glasses or wind screen.
More than 40% of the vehicles have any type of damages on their bodies.
• More than 50% of the pickups have found fixed radio, cassette player or stereo
deck.
133
• Air heaters are found only in 10% of the pickups, whereas less than 1% of the
pickups have air conditioners.
• 97% of the drivers are male and 3% are females whereas all are Pakistani
Nationals.
• The following age group of drivers indicates that more than 60% drivers are older
than 30.
18 – 25 years 2.4 %
25 – 30 years 29.7 %
30 – 40 years 34.5 %
> 40 years 33.4 %
• The drivers using pickups have a variety of professions. It shows that people have
been doing this job as part time.
• About 70% of the drivers have their qualification level as matric or below. 22%
drivers have done intermediate and only 3% of them are graduates.
• Driving experience of the drivers is as under:
1 – 10 years 33.8 %
11 – 20 years 10.9 %
21 – 30 years 34.4 %
• Almost all the drivers have driving experience of 16,000 – 20,000 km per year.
• More than 70% drivers admit that they met accidents in their driving experience at
one or more instances and more than 35% of drivers admit that such incidents
occurred either once or twice during the last two years. It shows that most of the
drivers are careless and may involve in serious accidents.
• The marital status of drivers is as under:
Single 21.2 %
134
Married 74.4 %
Divorced/Separated 4.4 %
• About 30% of the drivers have no kid. About 50% of the drivers have 4 or more
kids.
• About 5% of the drivers are physically unfit.
• More than 50% of the drivers smoke. About 40% of the drivers have been
smoking for the last 16 to 20 years. About 50% of the drivers smoke 11+ cigarettes
per day. These aspects reflect worries of life.
• The below given range of monthly income of the drivers shows that most of the
drivers are leading hard lives.
Rs. 3,000–5,000 4.9 %

Rs. 5,000–10,000 67.1 %
Rs. 10,000–25,000 27.6%
• About 10% of the drivers do not possess driving license and 33% of them could
not produce the license at the time of survey. This aspect needs attention of traffic
police.
• About 90% of the drivers take their vehicles for periodic fitness check and 70%
have frequency of check up as once a month.
• More than 20% of the vehicles have severe accident marks and maximum
accidents occurred during noon time. This aspect reflects more chances of
involvement of accidents of such vehicles.
• Only 20% of the drivers possess route permit. This aspect shows careless attitude
on the part of 80% drivers.
• More than 30% of the drivers have complaints about the bad behaviour of police.
• Most of the drivers do not possess any type of insurance.
• More than 15% of the drivers admit that they exceed the speed limit. About 50%
of the drivers admit that they obey traffic rules either rarely or not strictly. More
135
than 75% of the drivers admit that they have been fined for any offence for once
or more instances. The traffic police require ensuring the strict observance of
traffic rules.
• Most of the drivers admit that they use mobile phone while driving. This aspect
also requires attention of traffic police for traffic safety.

vehicular/driver’s characteristics of Pickup. The results of three most significant factors
table for pick up is presented in Appendix-F7:
1.5%
2.8% Both working
> 40
3.3%
2 1.1% 2 30-40
Not working 0. 9%
1.1% 0% 25-30
One working
18-25
21.4% 11.0%
13.5%
1 7.3% 1 6. 6%
4.7% 0. 4%
42.7% 20.3%
0 12.8% 17.7%
0 22. 3%
6.2% 2. 0%
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500
Rear indicators condition count
Age group (years) count
accidents and indicators accidents and age group
conditions
a). Indicator condition
Figure 7.37 shows that more than 14% of pickup drivers with non-working indicators
have been involved in traffic accidents during the last two years.
b). Age group
Figure 7.38 shows that majority of pickup drivers of the age group 30-40 have been
involved in traffic accidents during the last two years.
136
2.0%
2.2% 3+
2 0%
0% 2
16.0%
1
6.6% 0
1 8.0%
0.4%
11.2%
10.6%
0 16.4%
23.6%
0 100 200 300 400 500

Accidents in life tim e count

accidents and accidents in life
time
Figure 7.39 shows that more than 30% pickup drivers have been involved in traffic
accidents during the last two years whose past record also shows accident involvement.
The above cross-tabulation analysis carried out for Pickups indicates that the traffic
accidents occurred due to Pickups do not commonly depend on only single aspect of
driver or vehicle rather their occurrence is caused by combined effect of various
significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics. This end necessitates the need for the
development of APM for Pickups based on the most significant parameters.
7.9.4 Accident Prediction Model for Pickup

For the development of model for pickup, contributions of three most significant
vehicular and drivers’ characteristics have been identified using correlations method
available in the SPSS software. The linear multiple regression analysis techniques has
been employed to develop APM relating the number of accidents for two years
(dependent variable) and three most significant drivers and vehicular characteristics
(independent variables) using the SPSS software. The model summary comprising R-
software. In order to get the coefficient values for one year, the standardized values given
137
Table 7.13: Model summary for pickup

0.720 0.519 0.515 0.511
Table 7.14: Coefficients (a) for pickup

Variable
Coefficients
Condition of rear indicators, One working 0.082 2.557 0.011
Age group 30-40 0.192 5.608 0.000
below:
Na(P) = 0.0410V2 + 0.2975D1+ 0.0960D13 (7.7)
where, Na(P) = Expected number of accidents per year for pickup
V2 = Condition of rear indicators, one working
D1 = Accidents in life time
D13 = Age group, 30-40
7.9.5 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Pickup

Sampling size of 350 Pickups was taken, 300 for model development and 50 for its
per year was estimated using equation 7.7 for 50 Pickups and compared with the actual
number of accidents for the same Pickups. Figure 7.40 presents this comparison. The
138


1
0
1 11 21 31 41
Serial number of pick ups
Figure 7.40: Verification of APM for Pickups
7.9.6 Conclusions from Pickup Analysis

An extensive study of pick-ups was carried out to study the effect of vehicular/driver
characteristic on the number of accident. The conclusions are as under:
Damaged indicators are the main causes of accidents of pick-ups. Proper motor vehicle
examination report of Pick-ups should be periodically issued by the motor vehicle
examination authority for ensuring the road safety.
The APM developed, equation 7.7, can be used for prediction of number of accidents by
selecting the similar vehicular and driver’s characteristics of Pick-ups for Lahore and
other cities of Punjab.
7.10 COMBINED VEHICLES
In sections 7.3 to 7.9, separate accident prediction models for motorcycle rickshaws,
motorcycles, passenger cars, wagons, buses, auto rickshaws and pick-ups have been
developed. The separate APMs for seven types were developed as characteristics of these
vehicles and their drivers are different. However, it is tried to develop a combined APM
for seven types of vehicles.
For the development of combined model for six types of vehicles the linear multiple
regression analysis techniques has been employed. The model summary comprising R-
139
software. In order to get the coefficient values for one year, the standardized values given
Table 7.15 Model summary for combined vehicles

0.713 0.508 0.501 0.505
Table 7.16 Coefficients (a) for combined vehicles

Variables Standardized Coefficients
Condition of foot brakes, loose 0.017
Indicators not working 0.019
Presence of any damage, yes 0.071
Accidents in life time 0.635
Musical instruments, available 0.057
Do you use cell phone while driving?, yes 0.108
below:
Na(cv) = 0.0085V1 + 0.0095V2 + 0.0355V3 + 0.3175D1 + 0.0285D3 + 0.0540D4 (7.8)
where, Na(cv) = Expected number of accidents per year for combined vehicles
V1 = Condition of foot brakes, loose
V2 = Indicators, not working
V3 = Presence of any damage, yes
D3 = Musical instrument, available
D4 = Do you use cell phone while driving?, yes
140
CHAPTER-7 DATA ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ACCIDENT PREDICTION
MODELS
Figure 7.41: Validation of APM for Combined vehicles
141
7.10.1 Verification of Accident Prediction Model for Combined Vehicles
Sampling size of 12,405 combined vehicles was taken, 10,370 for model development
and 2,035 for its verification. For verification of the model shown by equation 7.8, the
number of accidents per year was estimated using equation 7.8 for 2,035 combined
vehicles and compared with the actual number of accidents for the same vehicles. Figure
7.41 presents this comparison. The estimated and actual numbers of accidents per year are
in good agreement.
7.11 FUTURE APPLICATION OF APM FOR MOTORCYCLES IN 2015 USING

EXAMPLES
Data for number of registered vehicles in Lahore was collected in 2006. In 2006, there
were 500,000 motorcycles were registered in Lahore. Manufacturing growth rate of
motorcycles in Pakistan was 5.4% in 2007-08
(http://www.google.com.pk/#hl=en&q=Growth+rate+of+motorcycles+in+Pakistan).
Taking a growth rate of motorcycles in Pakistan as 5.4%, in 2015 the number of

motorcycles in Pakistan will be 802,667 [(1+0.054)9(500,000)]. Assuming no
improvements in the roadway traffic safety in Lahore, with increase in number of
motorcycles, the number of accidents will be increased.
Total accidents have grown by 10% during the period of 1998-2008 in Pakistan (Nasr,
2009). For this research work data for characteristics of motorcycles and their drivers was
collected during the year 2005-06.
APM developed for motorcycles is given in equation 7.2.
Example No. 1-Comparison of Annual Actual Number of Accidents per Motorcyclist

with the Annual Estimated Number of Accidents per Motorcyclist in the Year 2015
To see whether the developed APM for motorcycle will be applicable in the year 2015, a
comparison will be made between the estimated number of accidents by a motorcyclist in
2015 using the developed APM for Motorcycles (Equation 7.2) and actual number of
142
accidents per driver increased by growth factor of 1.1. For this purpose a sample of 1000
drivers has been taken.
Assuming no improvements in the road safety in Lahore during the next 10 years, for this
example 10% accident growth rate will be taken for 10 years period. Therefore number of
accidents occurred in 2015 will be increased by 10% as on 2005.
The independent and dependent variables involved in the proposed APM for motorcycles
alongwith the factors, if any, to be applied to the present variables to transform their
values to fit for the year 2015 are presented in Table 7.17.
Table 7.17: Variables and factors to be applied for future forecasting of accidents
Independent variables Proposed factor

Presence of right side mirror, No It is a categorical variable, may have two
categories as YES or NO.
Condition of rear indicators, One working It is a categorical variable, may have two
categories as WORKING or NOT
WORKING.
Accidents in life time It is a numerical variable. Its value may

change after ten years. As mentioned
above, a factor of 1.1 is suitable to the
present data to convert it to corresponding
data for the year 2015.
Driver smokes, Yes It is a categorical variable, may have two
Number of cigarettes per day It is a numerical variable. Its value may or

may not change after ten years. The same
value has been taken for the year 2015.
Are you satisfied with your profession, No It is a categorical variable, may have two
Dependent variable Proposed factor
Accidents in last two years It is a numerical variable. Its value may

change after ten years. As mentioned
above, a factor of 1.1 is suitable to the
present data to convert it to corresponding
data for the year 2015.
143
Using the developed APM for motorcycles, annual number of accidents per driver for the
year 2015 has been estimated after applying respective factors to the independent
variables (Calculation sheet at Appendix-G1). The comparison of estimated annual
number of accidents with the actual number of accidents per driver for the year 2015 is
given in Figure: 7.42.
Figure: 7.42 Comparison of annual number of estimated accidents per driver with
factored annual number of actual accidents per driver for the year 2015
The comparison shows that a suitable agreement between the estimated and the actual
annual number of accidents is established. Hence the developed APM for motorcycles
can be applied for future forecast of annual number of accidents.
Example No. 2-Estimated Annual Number of Accidents by Motorcyclists for

Different Years w.e.f. 2006 to 2015 Using the Developed APM for Motorcycles
Assuming no improvements in the road safety in Lahore during the next 10 years, for this
example 10% accident growth rate will be taken for 10 years period. Therefore number of
accidents occurred in 2015 will be increased by 10% as on 2005. Hence a growth rate of
1% per year will be taken for number of accidents and a growth rate of 5.4% per year will
be taken for increase in number of motorcyclists. A sample of 1000 motorcyclists has
been taken for the calculation purpose for the year 2006. Using the aforementioned
growth rates, number of accidents have been calculated and shown in table 7.18.
144
Table 7.18: Calculation of number of accidents for different years

Year Average number of Number of Annual Appendix
annual accidents per motorcyclists number of
motorcyclist accidents
2006 0.344 1000 344 G2
2007 0.347 1054 366 G3
2008 0.35 1111 389 G4
2009 0.353 1171 413 G5
2010 0.356 1234 439 G6
2011 0.359 1301 467 G7
2012 0.362 1371 496 G8
2013 0.365 1445 527 G9
2014 0.367 1523 559 G10
2015 0.370 1605 594 G1
The above table shows that with increase in number of motorcyclists, annual number of
accidents estimated using the APM for motorcycles increase over the year through 2006
to 2015. This shows that the developed APM for motorcycles can be employed for
forecasting the future accidents.
Example No. 3-Effect of Application of Safety Measures on Annual Number of

Accidents for A Sample of 1000 Motorcyclists for the Year 2015 Using the
Developed APM for Motorcycles
In aforementioned APM for motorcycles, there are 6 significant variables contributing to
accidents. In this example it is attempted to see the impact of application of safety
measures to be applied to annual number of accidents in the year 2015 for a sample of
1000 motorcyclists. To achieve this objective, number of accidents has been determined
by applying the safety measure one by one starting with no application of safety
measures. The results so obtained are shown table 7.19.
The results show that by addressing the significant variables contributing to accidents,
number of accidents can be reduced. The significant variables mostly related to driver’s
behavior and vehicular mechanical faults. By addressing these significant parameters,
145
road safety on roads of Lahore can be enhanced. Hence the developed APM can be
utilized for improving the road safety in Lahore and Pakistan.
Table 7.19: Number of accidents based on implementation of safety conditions

Number of accidents of 1000
Safety condition implemented
motorcyclists in the year 2015
No safety condition implemented 370
Only presence of right side mirror is ensured 363
Presence of right side mirror and working condition of

361
rear indicators are ensured
Presence of right side mirror, working condition of rear
46
indicators and no accidents in life time are ensured
indicators, no accidents in life time and no smoking habit 36
of drivers are ensured
indicators, no accidents in life time, no smoking habit of 8
drivers and satisfaction of profession are ensured
indicators, no accidents in life time, no smoking habit of
0
drivers and zero number of cigarettes and satisfaction of
profession i.e., all the significant variables are addressed
7.12 COMPARISON OF DEVELOPED APM’S WITH PUBLISHED DATA
The aforementioned literature on APMs in Section 4.7 shows that most of the researchers
employed multiple linear regression technique for the development of APMs. Based on
the work of most eminent researchers in the area of APMs, different regressions
techniques were tried. However, on the basis of suitable R2 value of the multiple linear
models, t and significance (p) values of the most significant independent parameters in
APMs and inappropriate data for non-linear models, multiple linear regression technique
was employed to develop APMs for seven types of vehicles.
The aforementioned research works carried out by several researchers, provided in

Section 4.7, indicate that most of the researchers developed APMs for particular locations
of the roads relating annual number of accidents based on flow of traffic entering/leaving
a section of road way, condition of road way, behaviour of drivers, condition of vehicles
and etc. For example, Lord, et al. (2000) developed an APM for intersections taking flow
146
of traffic entering on major and minor roads. He considered only two independent
variables, viz., traffic flows entering the intersection from major and minor roads.
Likewise Uçar, et al. (2007) developed an APM for bus accidents in Turkey taking
independent variables like, specific locations, accident time, weather conditions, direction
of vehicle movement, severity level of vehicle damage and educational level of driver.
However no researcher worked exclusively on APM relating annual number of accidents
with characteristics of drivers and their vehicles contributing to accidents.
In this research study, it is attempted to develop APM relating annual number of

accidents with characteristics of drivers and their vehicles contributing to accidents for all
road locations, using multiple linear regression technique as has been done by other
researchers. However, comparison of number of accidents determined by APMs
developed for this study and APMs developed by past researchers can not be carried out
due to difference in selection of variables, road locations and behavior of people.
7.13 SUMMARY
In this chapter detailed analyses of seven vehicles with reference to their accident
potential has been described. The most significant vehicular and driver’s characteristics
have been identified which can be watched to check the road accidents. APMs have been
developed for all the vehicles including combined vehicles. Verification of the developed
APMs has also been carried out. These APMs can be used to assess the yearly number of
accidents for different vehicles.
147
CHAPTER-8
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8.1 INTRODUCTION
The basic objective of this research was to develop accident prediction models for seven
types of vehicles. For this purpose, a questionnaire/survey form comprising about 107
vehicular and driver’s characteristics was prepared. Seven types of vehicles, viz.
motorcycle rickshaws, motorcycles, auto rickshaws, passenger cars, pickups, wagons and
buses, were included for this research. For each vehicle survey was carried out at different
locations of Lahore to collect the data. Correlation, frequency and cross-tabulation
analyses were carried out for each vehicle type using the Statistical Package for Social
Sciences (SPSS). Using these analyses, the most significant driver’s and vehicular
characteristics contributing road accidents were identified for each vehicle. With the most
significant characteristics, accident prediction models (APMs) relating to the number of
accidents per year were developed using the multiple linear regression analysis for all the
seven types of vehicles. The developed APMs can be used to estimate the annual number
of accidents relating to vehicular and driver’s characteristics for different types of
vehicles for other cities of Punjab or Pakistan. This chapter presents results, conclusions
and some recommendations for the future study.
8.2 CONCLUSIONS
The statistical analyses of various vehicle types and the respective accident prediction
models have been presented in the preceding chapter. The data about vehicular and
driver’s characteristics available with different concerned agencies were not in a readily
available and standard format. However, on the basis of different phases of work, viz.,
data collection, visits to concerned agencies, field surveys, statistical analysis of data and
results following conclusions have been drawn from this study:
1. The APMs developed for motorcycle rickshaws, motorcycles, passenger cars,

wagons, buses, auto rickshaws, pickups and combined vehicles presented in
Tables 8.1 and 8.2, can be used for:
a. Future forecasting of yearly number of accidents based on characteristics

of vehicles and drivers contributing to accidents
148
CHAPTER-8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
b. Identification of the most significant characteristics of vehicles and drivers

contribution to accidents on the basis of strength of correlations
c. Determination of accident proportions of most significant vehicular and
driver’s characteristics for different vehicles
d. Reduction in road accidents by giving due attention to the most significant
vehicular and driver’s characteristics.
2. Behaviour of every vehicle type and characteristics of their drivers are different
from each other so the combined APM is not feasible. Keeping this fact in mind,
individual APMs for seven types of vehicles have been developed.
3. The following most significant characteristics of vehicles and their drivers can be
addressed to enhance the road safety:
a. Loose foot brakes of vehicles

b. Non-working indicators of vehicles
c. Absence of back view mirrors
d. Smoking habit of driver
e. Vehicles with musical instruments
f. Cell phone usage while driving
g. Dissatisfaction of profession
h. Educational qualification of drivers
i. Routine check-up of vehicles
j. Safety belts
4. Table 8.2 indicates that 75% roads incidents have occurred due to human errors
and 14% due to vehicular mechanical faults during (2004-2006).
5. Random sampling technique adopted for the survey of vehicles reduces possibility
of bias in data.
149
Table 8.1 Accident prediction models for different vehicles

S. Vehicle type Model equation
No.
1 Motorcycle Rickshaw Na(MR) = 0.0310 V1 +0.4170 D1 + 0.0350 D2+ 0.0640 D3
(MR)
2 Motorcycle Na(M) = 0.0125V2 +0.0130V4 +0.3735D1 + 0.0210D2+ 0.0325D5 +0.0085D7
(M)
3 Passenger Car Na(PC) = 0.0185V3 +0.2440D1+ 0.2725D3+ 0.0085D8
(PC)
4 Bus Na(W) = 0.3680D1 + 0.0865D3 + 0.0505D6
(B)
5 Wagon Na(B) = 0.0435V3+ 0.0575V5 + 0.2710D1 + 0.2045D10 + 0.0310D11
(W)
6 Auto Rickshaw Na (AR) = 0.2510D1 + 0.2195D4 + 0.01650D9 + 0.03050D12
(AR)
7 Pick up Na(P) = 0.0410V2 + 0.2975D1+ 0.0960D13
(P)
8 Combined vehicles Na(cv) = 0.0085V1 + 0.0095V2 + 0.0355V3 + 0.3175D1 + 0.0285D3 + 0.0540D4
(CV)
Where
Na(MR) = Expected number of accidents per year for motorcycle rickshaw; Na(M) = Expected number of accidents per year for motorcycle
Na(PC) = Expected number of accidents per year for passenger car; Na(W) = Expected number of accidents per year for wagon
Na(B) = Expected number of accidents per year for bus; Na(AR) = Expected number of accidents per year for auto rickshaw
Na(P) = Expected number of accidents per year for pick-up; Na(CV) = Expected number of accidents per year for combined vehicles
V1 = Condition of foot brakes, loose; V2 = Indicators, not working; V3 = Presence of any damage, yes; V4 = Presence of right side mirror, no
V5 = Condition of wind shield washers, not working;
D1 = Number of accidents occurred in life time; D2 = Driver smokes, yes; D3 = Musical instrument, available; D4 = Do you use cell phone while driving?, yes;
D5 = Number of cigarettes per day; D6 =Smoking years; D7 = Are you satisfied with your profession?, no; D8 = Educational qualification, Primary
D9 = Educational qualification, Middle; D10 = Number of times of routine check-up of vehicles, once a year; D11 = Safety belts, available but not worn
D12 = In your view what type of improvement should be made, improving road standards; D13 = Age group, 30-40
150
Table 8.2 Accident proportions of most significant vehicular and drivers characteristics for different vehicles
S. Most significant Accident proportions for different vehicles (%)

No. characteristics
Motorcycle Motorcycle Passenger Bus Wagon Auto Pick up Combined
Rickshaw Car Rickshaw
1 V1 10 - - - - - - 4.5
2 V2 - 4 - - - 5 7.5
3 V3 - - 2 13 - - - 2.1
4 V4 - 13 - - - - - -
5 V5 - - - 4 - - - -
6 D1 33 22 41 33 41 38 32 51.1
7 D2 24 14 - - - - - -
8 D3 16 - 41 - 24 - - 19.8
9 D4 - - - - - - - 5.3
10 D5 - 14 - - - 27 - -
11 D6 - - - - 10 - - -
12 D7 - 5 - - - - - -
13 D8 - - 5 - - - - -
14 D9 - - - - - 13 - -
15 D10 - - - 27 - - - -
16 D11 - - - 6 - - - -
17 D12 - - - - - 15 - -
18 D13 - - - - - - 16 -
-: accident cause due to some other factor
151
6. The data regarding vehicular and driver characteristics is original and

representative. The survey techniques and sampling size of data are adequate to
develop APMs.
8.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
On the basis of conclusions of this study, the following are the recommendations for
increasing the road safety in Lahore:
1. Under-aged drivers should be discouraged to drive vehicles and in case of

violation they should be heavily fined.
2. Before conducting survey for vehicular and driver’s characteristics, rigorous

training alongwith monitoring of the members of the survey teams is very
essential for obtaining accurate/reliable results.
3. The law enforcing agencies should take strict actions against the violation of
traffic rules by drivers of any vehicle.
4. The license issuing authority should issue license to drivers after proper test and
availability of license must be frequently checked.
5. Training of drivers of public transport can significantly reduce the number of

accidents.
8.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
The following future study areas are suggested:
1. APMs for various critical intersections of Lahore should be developed.
2. Establishment of a Traffic Accident Monitoring Center in Lahore is suggested.
152
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157
Appendix A1: Data Regarding Accidents Traffic Police
Source: Office of Traffic Police District: Lahore
Road Traffic Accident Data for the year 2005
Circle Details
Sr. Non
Number of Year Fatal PD* Total Deaths Injured
No. Name of Circle Name of Sectors Fatal
Sectors
1 Cantt 3 Mall-I, Mall-II, Cantt 2005 40 35 19 94 43 67
New Airport, Old Airport,
2 Defence 3 2005 10 20 13 43 13 23
Defence
Ghari Shahu, Mcleoad Road,
3 Mughal Pura 3 2005 53 31 7 91 55 62
Mughalpura
Nawan Kot, Shera Kot, Niaz
4 Sadar 4 2005 47 36 21 104 52 64
Baig, Rai Wind
Mall-III, Lower Mall,
5 Anarkali 3 2005 21 19 8 48 22 51
Anarkali
Model Town, Town Ship,
6 Model Town 4 2005 73 41 25 139 79 86
Kot Lakhpat, Kahna
Mozang, Ichra, Wahdat
7 Ichra 3 2005 22 23 15 60 25 46
Road
Shadman, C M House,
8 Gulberg 3 2005 8 8 5 21 8 8
Gulberg
Kotwali, Railway Station,
9 City Area 3 2005 25 22 3 50 25 36
Misri Shah
Ravi Road, Lorry Adda,
10 Shahdra 3 2005 59 15 9 83 61 38
Shahdra
Sub Total - - 358 250 125 733 383 481
11 National Highway - - 2005 36 10 7 53 43 69
Grand Total 394 260 132 786 426 550
*Permanent disability
158
Circle Details
Sr. Non
Number Year Fatal PD* Total Deaths Injured
No. Name of Circle Name of Sectors Fatal
of Sectors
2 Defence 3 New Airport, Old Airport, Defence 2006 24 20 6 50 25 30
3 Mughal Pura 3 2006 48 36 11 95 49 60
Mughalpura
Nawan Kot, Shera Kot, Niaz Baig,
4 Sadar 4 2006 62 38 11 111 74 88
Rai Wind
5 Anarkali 3 Mall-III, Lower Mall, Anarkali 2006 23 17 7 47 23 26
Model Town, Town Ship, Kot
6 Model Town 4 2006 59 40 10 109 63 91
Lakhpat, Kahna
7 Ichra 3 Mozang, Ichra, Wahdat Road 2006 16 29 16 61 16 42
8 Gulberg 3 Shadman, C M House, Gulberg 2006 11 13 4 28 11 18
9 City Area 3 Kotwali, Railway Station, Misri Shah 2006 17 14 4 35 20 25
10 Shahdra 3 Ravi Road, Lorry Adda, Shahdra 2006 57 23 1 81 60 45
Sub Total - - 346 260 82 688 372 475
Grand Total 386 274 91 751 420 535
159
Source:Office of Traffic Police District: Lahore
Circle Details
Sr. Number Non
Year Fatal PD* Total Deaths Injured
No. Name of Circle of Name of Sectors Fatal
Sectors
3 Mughal Pura 3 2007 47 25 3 75 50 38
Mughalpura
4 Sadar 4 2007 56 37 9 102 58 97
Rai Wind
6 Model Town 4 2007 69 47 17 133 74 83
Lakhpat, Kahna
Kotwali, Railway Station, Misri
9 City Area 3 2007 19 6 1 26 19 10
Shah
Sub Total - - 337 254 65 656 353 467
Grand Total 377 273 70 720 400 502
160
Road Traffic Accident Data for the year 2008 (From January to September)
Circle Details
Sr. Number Non
Year Fatal PD* Total Deaths Injured
No. Name of Circle of Name of Sectors Fatal
Sectors
3 Mughal Pura 3 2008 37 12 3 52 41 28
Mughalpura
4 Sadar 4 2008 42 11 9 62 49 51
Rai Wind
6 Model Town 4 2008 55 39 9 103 56 55
Lakhpat, Kahna
9 City Area 3 Kotwali, Railway Station, Misri Shah 2008 15 6 1 22 16 10
Total - - 253 157 51 461 275 322
161
Appendix A2: Data Regarding Accidents Rescue 1122
PUNJAB EMERGENCY SERVICES

(RESCUE 1122)
Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Report
(from March 2007 to march 2008)
Total no. of Total No. of Sex

Category
emergencies victims M F
RTA 22755 23861 17722 6212
Bike 9874 9478 7271 1876
Car 2638 2659 1898 610
Bus/Truck 1201 1556 745 372
Wagon 1642 1508 940 376
Rickshw 3972 3177 2086 859
Others 3417 3234 2164 1093
PUNJAB EMERGENCY SERVICES (RESCUE 1122)
Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Report (from March 2007 to March 2008)
Central Station Ferozepur Road Lahore
Total Sex
Total No. of
Category No. of Main Areas of Emergency
Emergencies
Victims M F
RTA 7,380 8,067 5,906 1,988
Kalma Chowk, Jail Road, Wahdat Road,
Bike 3,706 4,178 3,383 789 Shadman Chowk, Faisal Town, Campus
Area, Cavalry Ground, Main Boulevard,
Car 786 993 750 302 Gulzar Underpass, GPO Chowk, Club
Chowk, Inchhra, The Mall, LOS Signal,
Bus/Truck 420 540 2,841 183
Zahoor Elahi Road, Siddique Center,
Wagon 532 558 337 216 Fortress Bridge, Anarkali Chowk, Shimla
Hill, Davis Road, China Chowk, Barkat
Rickshaw 1,273 1,157 770 321 Market, Allama Iqbal Town, Firdous
Market, Lytton Road & Moon Market.
Others 653 641 382 207
162
Thokar Niaz Baig Station
Total Sex
Total No. of
Emergencies M F
Victims
RTA 2,817 2,759 1,883 879
Bike 1,007 992 772 221 Raiwind Road, Multan Road, Motorway,
Thokhar Bypass, Wapda Town, Shaukat
Car 300 235 154 81 Khanum Road, Canal View, EME Society,
Bus/Truck 100 96 62 36 Chung, Nursery Stop, Bhobatian Chowk,
Wagon 111 123 79 44 Sundar Adda, Doctors Hospital, Multan
Chungi, Chowk Yateem Khana, Shah Noor
Rickshaw 141 145 74 71 Studio, Hanjarwal, Defence Road.
Others 1,158 1,168 742 426
Township Station
Total Sex
Total No. of
Emergencies M F
Victims
RTA 449 545 458 127
Bike 129 148 128 60
Pindi Stop, Dubai Chowk, Khokhar Chowk,
Car 63 65 48 17 Bagrian, Township, Green Town, Akbar
Bus/Truck 45 61 56 5 Chowk, Hamdard Chowk, College Road, Kotha
Wagon 43 43 41 2 Pind, Johar Town, Model Town Link Road,
Mochipura, Butt Chowk, Center Flats.
Rickshaw 99 129 103 26
Others 70 99 82 17
Walton Station
Total Sex
Total No. of
Emergencies M F
Victims
RTA 3,175 3,553 3,096 506
Bike 1,372 1,458 1,380 172
Car 532 570 518 52 Qanchi, Ghazi Road, Gulab Devi Signal,
Bus/Truck 150 536 122 71 Green Town, Chungi Amer Sidhu, DHA,
Wagon 408 430 347 53 Walton Road, Kacha Jail Road.
Rickshaw 399 473 356 116

Others 314 286 373 42
163
Dharampura Station
Total Sex
Total No. of
Emergencies
Victims M F
RTA 664 591 406 186
Bike 242 230 180 50
Car 77 63 29 28
Zarrar Shaheed Road, Harbanspura, Joreypul,
Bus/Truck 35 30 21 2 Dharampura, Cantt, Gulistan Colony, Lal Pul,
Tufail Road, Ghurki Stop.
Wagon 23 17 9 8
Rickshaw 47 41 24 17
Others 240 210 133 77
Mughalpura Station
Total Sex
Total No. of
Emergencies
Victims
M F
RTA 3,800 3,360 2,318 1,297
Bike 1,211 1,185 867 503
Car 380 375 285 107 Singhpura, Shalimar Link Road, Garhi Shahu,
UET, Shah Bagh, Daroghawala, Bund Road,
Bus/Truck 163 179 118 63
China Scheme, Shad Bagh, Co-operative
Wagon 109 109 67 45 Store Chowk.
Rickshaw 1,217 789 545 258

Others 720 723 435 322
164
Appendix B1: Data Regarding Number of Registered Vehicles
Source: Motor Registration Authority, Lahore
165
Appendix B2: Data Regarding Existing Wagon Routes
(Source: National Transport Authority, Lahore)
166
167
168
169
170
171
Appendix B3: Data Regarding Existing Bus Routes
(Source: National Transport Authority, Lahore)
172
173
174
Appendix B4: Data Regarding Prohibited Routes for
Motorcycle Rickshaw
175
Appendix C1: Survey Form for Motorcycle Rickshaw
Vehicle type : MOTORCYCLE/RICKSHAW (QINGQI)
Vehicle registration No. : _________________________
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________
Variable Name Variable Label Variable Codes

V002 Vehicle Type Motor Cycle Rickshaw = 11
V003 Vehicle Purpose Private = 1
Public = 2
V004 Ownership of Vehicle Yes = 1
No = 2
V005 Manufacturer Name Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Eagle = 26
Sohrab = 28
Yamaha = 30
Others = 31
V006 Year of Manufacture
V007 Engine Power (cc)
V008 Vehicle Model Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Yamaha = 49
Kawasaki = 50
Pak Hero = 51
Qingqi = 52
Eagle = 53
Others = 54
V009 Working of Speedometer Yes = 1
No = 2
V010 Maximum Speed Limit (Km/hr)
V011 Working of Odometer Yes = 1
No = 2
V012 Odometer Reading (Km)
V013 Availability of Temperature Gauge Available = 1
Not Available = 2
V014 Condition of Temperature Gauge Working = 1
Not Working = 2
V015 Availability of fuel Gauge Available = 1
Not Available = 2
176
V016 Condition of Fuel Gauge Working = 1
Not Working = 2
V019 Condition of Foot Brakes Loose = 1
Normal = 2
Tight =3
V020 Condition of Hand Brakes Working = 1
Not Working = 2
V024 Presence of Tools for Changing Tyre Yes = 1
No = 2
V025 Condition of Horn/Bell Working = 1
Not Working = 2
V028 Type of Steering Wheel/Handle Powered = 1
Not Powered = 2
V029 Condition of Steering Wheel Excessive Play = 1
Normal Play = 2
V030 Presence of Right-Side Mirror Yes = 1
No = 2
V031 Presence of Left-side Mirror Yes = 1
No = 2
V033 Condition of Front Parking Light Working = 1
Not working = 2
V034 Condition of Rear Parking Lights One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V035 Condition of Low Beam Working = 1
Not working = 2
V036 Condition of High Beam Working = 1
Not working = 2
V037 Condition of Front Indicators One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V038 Condition of Rear Indicators One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V039 Condition of Brake Lights One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V042 Condition of Left Rear Tyre Excessive wear = 1
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
V045 Condition of Right Rear Tyre Excessive wear = 1
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
V046 Presence of Number Plate Does not exist = 2
Exist = 1
V047 Quality of Number Plate Proper = 1
Not proper = 2
V048 Condition of Exhaust Sound Normal = 1
Noisy = 2
V053 Presence of any Damage Yes = 1
No = 2
177
V058 Presence of Damage on Roof/Top Yes = 1
No = 2
V060 Presence of Damage Right Side Rear Yes = 1
Corner No = 2
V061 Presence of Damage Rear (Trunk) Yes = 1
No = 2
V062 Presence of Damage Left Side Rear Yes = 1
Corner No = 2
V063 Presence of Radio Yes = 1
No = 2
V064 Presence of Cassette Player Yes = 1
No = 2
V065 Presence of Stereo Deck Yes = 1
No = 2
V068 Overall Condition of Vehicle Excellent = 1
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
V069 Driver Sex Male= 1
Female = 2
V070 Nationality Pakistani = 1
Foreigner = 2
V071 Age Group (Year range) <18 = 1
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
V072 Occupation Politician = 1
Businessman = 2
Teacher/Professor = 3
Technical /Engineer = 4
Mechanical/Factory Worker=5
Clerical/secretarial/Office Worker = 6
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
Medical Profession = 10
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
V073 Educational Qualifications Illiterate = 1
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Post –Graduate = 7
V074 Driving Experience in Years

V075 Vehicle Driven per Year in Km
178
V076 No. of Accidents in Life Time
V077 No. of Accidents in Last 2 Years
V078 Marital Status Single = 1
Married = 2
Divorced /Separated = 3
V079 Number of Children
V080 Physically Fit Yes = 1
No = 2
V081 Driver Smokes Yes = 1
No = 2
V082 Number of Years of Smoking
V083 Number of Cigarettes/day
V084 Monthly Income (Rupees) Dependent on parents = 1
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
Dependent on husband/children = 9
V085 Driver License Issued Yes = 1
No = 2
V086 Driver License Available at the time Yes = 1
of the survey No = 2
V087 Periodic Fitness/Maintenance Yes = 1
Checkup required for Vehicle No = 2
V088 No. of Times routine Check up of Once a week = 1
Vehicle Once a month = 2
Once year = 3
Once in two weeks = 4
V089 Survey Year 1986 = 1
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
V090 Survey Location Fortress = 1
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Minar-e-Pakistan = 6
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Lahore Cantt./Airport = 9
Rang Mahal = 10
Multan –Jail Road = 11
(Chuburji Chowk, MAO College,Mozang Chungi
,Jail Road R.A. Bazar =12
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
179
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
V091 Musical Instruments Available = 1
None = 2
V092 Vehicle Route Railway Station to Multan Rd =1
Railway Stn. to Raiwind More =2
Rly Stn. to Khana Nau=3
Rly Stn. to Sanda Kalan =4
R.A.Bazar to Sanda Kalan =5
Rly. Stn. to Taj Pura = 6
Bhati Gate to Nishat Cly = 7
G.Bus Stand to Wahga = 8
G.Bus Stand to Township = 9
Rly Stn. to 7-Up Factory =10
V093 Engine Type Petrol = 1
CNG = 3
V095 Accident Intensity Severe = 1
Minor = 2
V096 Accident Time Dawn = 1
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
V097 Surveyors Shahzad Ahmad =1
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
V099 Do you posses route permit Yes = 1
No = 2
V100 Do you exceed the speed limit Yes = 1
No =1
V101 How is the behaviour of police with Good = 1
you Normal = 2
Bad = 3
V102 How is the behaviour of passenger Good = 1
with you Normal = 2
Bad = 3
V103 Are you satisfied with your Yes = 1
profession No = 2
V104 Safety Helmet Worn at the time of survey = 1
Available but not available at the tine of survey = 2
Not Available = 3
V105 Damage in Motorcycle Rickshaw Front = 1
Side = 2
Back = 3
None = 4
V106 Turn Indicator Horn Ordinary = 1
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
V107 Exhaust Smoke Excessive = 1
Normal = 2
V108 Number of passenger seated
180
V109 Amount (Rs.) per month given to
Police
V110 Condition of Front tyre Excessive wear = 1

Uneven wear = 2
Normal = 3
V112 Type of Insurance Ordinary/legal = 1
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
V113 Your driving behaviour in Aggressive/angrily = 1
congestion Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
V114 How often you follow traffic rules Always = 1
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been None = 1
fined to any offence in driving Once = 2
experience Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
V116 In your view, what type of Increase traffic law enforcement = 1
Improvements should be made Increase No. of road safety campaigns/Educationary
Programmes = 2
Improving road standards = 3
Increasing vehicle testing/checking by authority =4
Others = 5
V117 Do you have cell phone? Yes = 1

No = 2
V118 Do you use cell phone while Yes = 1
driving? No = 2
181
Appendix C2: Survey Form for Motorcycle
Vehicle type : MOTORCYCLE/SCOOTER
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________

V002 Vehicle Type Motor cycle = 6
Scooter = 7
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
V005 Manufacturer Name Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Vespa = 29
Yamaha = 30
Others = 31
V008 Vehicle Model Vespa = 46
Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Yamaha = 49
Kawasaki = 50
Pak Hero = 51
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
182
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2
V023 Presence of Spare Tyre (For scooter Yes = 1
only) No = 2
No = 2
Not Working = 2
No = 2
No = 2
V033 Condition of Front Parking Light Working = 1
Not working = 2
V034 Condition of Rear Parking Light Working = 1
Not working = 2
Not working = 2
Not working = 2
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V043 Condition of Spare Tyre (for scooter Excessive wear = 1
only) Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2
Noisy = 2
No = 2
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
183
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
184
V086 Driver License Available at the time of Yes = 1
the survey No = 2
V087 Periodic Fitness/Maintenance Checkup Yes = 1
required for Vehicle No = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
(Chuburji Chowk, MAO College Mozang
Chungi ,Jail Road R.A. Bazar =12
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
CNG = 3
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
No =1
you Normal = 2
Bad = 3
V103 Are you satisfied with your profession Yes = 1
No = 2
V104 Safety Helmet Worn at the time of survey = 1
Available but not available at the tine of
survey = 2
Not Available = 3
185
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
Police
Uneven wear = 2
Normal = 3
V111 Condition of Rear tyre Excessive wear = 1
Uneven wear = 2
Normal = 3
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
V113 Your driving behaviour in congestion Aggressive/angrily = 1
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been fined None = 1
to any offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
Improvements should be made Increase No. of road safety campaigns/
Educational Programmes = 2
Increasing vehicle testing/checking by
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
V118 Do you use cell phone while driving? Yes = 1
No = 2
186
Appendix C3: Survey Form for Passenger Car
Vehicle type : PASSENGER CAR
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________

V001 Safety Belts Available but not worn = 1
Available and worn = 2
Not available = 3
V002 Vehicle Type Passenger Car = 1
Taxi Car = 2
Wagon = 3
Bus = 4
Suzuki pick up = 5
Pick up = 12
Suzuki Carry = 13
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
V005 Manufacturer Name Toyota = 1
Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Nissan = 4
Mercedes = 5
Subaru = 6
Datsun = 7
Mitsubishi = 8
Kia = 9
Mazda = 10
Daihatsu = 11
Daewoo = 12
Volvo = 13
BMW = 14
Morris = 15
Opel = 16
Range rover = 17
Diats = 18
Ballat = 19
187
Ford = 20
Fiat = 21
Hillman = 22
VW = 23
Pajero = 24
Landcruiser = 25
Phonix = 27
Others = 31
V008 Vehicle Model Corolla = 1

Corona = 2
FX = 3
Mehran = 5
Margalla = 6
Swift = 7
Khyber = 8
Benz = 9
Civic = 10
Accord = 11
Sunny = 12
Charade = 13
Lancer = 14
Galant = 15
City = 16
Record = 17
Racer = 18
Pride = 19
GX = 20
Cressida = 21
Vitara = 22
Crusing = 23
Petrol = 24
Starlet = 25
Rover = 26
Mark-I = 27
Mark-II = 28
Crown = 29
Diesel = 30
Jeep = 31
140-J = 32
120-Y = 33
Minor = 34
Basliva = 35
Charmant = 36
Zuzahi =37
Hiace = 38
Bolan = 39
Ravi = 40
Baleno = 41
Bedford = 42
Mazda = 43
188
Volvo = 44
Hino = 45
Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
V017 Availability of Battery Gauge Available = 1
Not Available = 2
V018 Condition of Battery Gauge Working = 1
Not Working = 2
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2
V021 Presence of Fire Extinguisher Yes = 1
No = 2
V022 Presence of Reflecting Triangle Yes = 1
No = 2
V023 Presence of Spare Tyre Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
Not Working = 2
V026 Condition of Windshield Washers Working = 1
Not Working = 2
V027 Condition of Windshield Wiper Working = 1
Not Working = 2
Not Powered = 2
Normal Play = 2
No = 2
No = 2
V032 Presence of inside/Middle Mirror Yes = 1
No = 2
189
V033 Condition of Front Parking Light One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V035 Condition of Low Beam One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V036 Condition of High Beam One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V040 Condition of Back Gear Lights One working = 1
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
V041 Condition of Left Front Tyre Excessive wear = 1
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
V043 Condition of Spare Tyre Excessive wear = 1
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
V044 Condition of Right Front Tyre Excessive wear = 1
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2
Noisy = 2
V049 Presence of Scratches on Glasses Yes = 1
No = 2
V050 Presence of scratches on Wind Screen Yes = 1
No = 2
V051 Presence of scratches on Back Screen Yes = 1
No = 2
V052 Presence of scratches on Window Yes = 1
Glasses No = 2
190
No = 2
V054 Presence of Damage, Right Side Front Yes = 1
Corner No = 2
V055 Presence of Damage, Front (Hood) Yes = 1
No = 2
V056 Presence of Damage Left side Front Yes = 1
Corner No = 2
V057 Presence of Damage Right Side Yes = 1
(Doors) No = 2
No = 2
V059 Presence of Damage Left Side (Doors) Yes = 1
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
V066 Presence of Air-Conditioner Yes = 1
No = 2
V067 Presence of Air-Heater Yes = 1
No = 2
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
191
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2

Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
V086 Driver License Available at the time of Yes = 1
the survey No = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
Liberty = 2
192
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
(Chuburji Chowk, MAO College,Mozang
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
None = 2
Diesel = 2
CNG = 3
V094 Closing of Doors All Proper = 1
Some not Proper = 2
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
No = 2
No =1
you Normal = 2
Bad = 3
No = 2
193
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
Police
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been fined None = 1
to any offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
Improvements should be made Increase No. of road safety campaigns/
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
No = 2
194
Appendix C4: Survey Form for Wagon
Vehicle type : WAGON
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________

Not available = 3
Taxi Car = 2
Wagon = 3
Bus = 4
Suzuki pick up = 5
Pick up = 12
Suzuki Carry = 13
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Nissan = 4
Mercedes = 5
Subaru = 6
Datsun = 7
Mitsubishi = 8
Kia = 9
Mazda = 10
Daihatsu = 11
Daewoo = 12
Volvo = 13
BMW = 14
Morris = 15
Opel = 16
Range rover = 17
Diats = 18
Ballat = 19
195
Ford = 20
Fiat = 21
Hillman = 22
VW = 23
Pajero = 24
Landcruiser = 25
Phonix = 27
Others = 31
Corona = 2
FX = 3
Mehran = 5
Margalla = 6
Swift = 7
Khyber = 8
Benz = 9
Civic = 10
Accord = 11
Sunny = 12
Charade = 13
Lancer = 14
Galant = 15
City = 16
Record = 17
Racer = 18
Pride = 19
GX = 20
Cressida = 21
Vitara = 22
Crusing = 23
Petrol = 24
Starlet = 25
Rover = 26
Mark-I = 27
Mark-II = 28
Crown = 29
Diesel = 30
Jeep = 31
140-J = 32
120-Y = 33
Minor = 34
Basliva = 35
Charmant = 36
Zuzahi =37
Hiace = 38
Bolan = 39
Ravi = 40
Baleno = 41
Bedford = 42
Mazda = 43
Volvo = 44
196
Hino = 45
Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Powered = 2
Normal Play = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
197
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2

Noisy = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
198
V052 Presence of scratches on Window Glasses Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
V054 Presence of Damage, Right Side Front Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
V056 Presence of Damage Left side Front Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
V057 Presence of Damage Right Side (Doors) Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
V060 Presence of Damage Right Side Rear Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
V062 Presence of Damage Left Side Rear Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
Student =7
Retired =8
199
Driver =9
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
V086 Driver License Available at the time of the Yes = 1
survey No = 2
V088 No. of Times routine Check up of Vehicle Once a week = 1
Once a month = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
200
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
None = 2
Diesel = 2
CNG = 3
Some not Proper = 2
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
No = 2
No =1
V101 How is the behaviour of police with you Good = 1
Normal = 2
Bad = 3
201
No = 2
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
V109 Amount (Rs.) per month given to Police
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been fined to any None = 1
offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
V116 In your view, what type of Improvements Increase traffic law enforcement = 1
should be made Increase No. of road safety campaigns/
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
No = 2
202
Appendix C5: Survey Form for Bus
Vehicle type : BUS
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________
Variable Variable Label Variable Codes

Name
Not available = 3
Taxi Car = 2
Wagon = 3
Bus = 4
Suzuki pick up = 5
Pick up = 12
Suzuki Carry = 13
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Nissan = 4
Mercedes = 5
Subaru = 6
Datsun = 7
Mitsubishi = 8
Kia = 9
Mazda = 10
Daihatsu = 11
Daewoo = 12
Volvo = 13
BMW = 14
Morris = 15
Opel = 16
Range rover = 17
Diats = 18
203
Name
Ballat = 19
Ford = 20
Fiat = 21
Hillman = 22
VW = 23
Pajero = 24
Landcruiser = 25
Phonix = 27
Others = 31
Corona = 2
FX = 3
Mehran = 5
Margalla = 6
Swift = 7
Khyber = 8
Benz = 9
Civic = 10
Accord = 11
Sunny = 12
Charade = 13
Lancer = 14
Galant = 15
City = 16
Record = 17
Racer = 18
Pride = 19
GX = 20
Cressida = 21
Vitara = 22
Crusing = 23
Petrol = 24
Starlet = 25
Rover = 26
Mark-I = 27
Mark-II = 28
Crown = 29
Diesel = 30
Jeep = 31
140-J = 32
120-Y = 33
Minor = 34
Basliva = 35
Charmant = 36
Zuzahi =37
Hiace = 38
Bolan = 39
Ravi = 40
Baleno = 41
204
Name
Bedford = 42
Mazda = 43
Volvo = 44
Hino = 45
Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Powered = 2

Normal Play = 2
No = 2
205
Name
No = 2
No = 2
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2
Noisy = 2
No = 2
206
Name
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
207
Name
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
survey No = 2
208
Name
Once a month = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
None = 2
Diesel = 2
CNG = 3
Some not Proper = 2
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
209
Name
No = 2

No =1
Normal = 2
Bad = 3
No = 2
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been fined to None = 1
any offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
No = 2
210
Appendix C6: Survey Form for Auto Rickshaw
Vehicle type : AUTO RICKSHAW
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________

V002 Vehicle Type Rickshaw = 8
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
V005 Manufacturer Name Vespa = 29
Others = 31
V008 Vehicle Model Vespa = 46
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2

No = 2
211
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Powered = 2
Normal Play = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Not working = 2
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2
Noisy = 2
No = 2
212
No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
V056 Presence of Damage Left side Front Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
V060 Presence of Damage Right Side Rear Corner Yes = 1
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
068 Overall Condition of Vehicle Excellent = 1
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
213
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
survey No = 2
Once a month = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
214
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
None = 2
CNG = 3
Some not Proper = 2
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
No =1
Normal = 2
Bad = 3
V102 How is the behaviour of passenger with you Good = 1
Normal = 2
Bad = 3
No = 2
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 2
Normal = 3
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
215
V115 How many times you have been fined to any None = 1
offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
V116 In your view how is the existing roads Increase traffic law enforcement = 1
condition and how it affects your Increase No. of road safety
performance, what are your suggestions campaigns/Educational Programmes = 2
for improvements? Improving road standards = 3
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
No = 2
216
Appendix C7: Survey Form for Pickup
Vehicle type : PICK UP
Location : _________________________
Name of Surveyor : _________________________
Date : _________________________
Time : _________________________
Variable
Variable Label Variable Codes
Name
Not available = 3
Taxi Car = 2
Wagon = 3
Bus = 4
Suzuki pick up = 5
Pick up = 12
Suzuki Carry = 13
Public = 2
Commercial = 3
No = 2
Suzuki = 2
Honda = 3
Nissan = 4
Mercedes = 5
Subaru = 6
Datsun = 7
Mitsubishi = 8
Kia = 9
Mazda = 10
Daihatsu = 11
Daewoo = 12
Volvo = 13
BMW = 14
Morris = 15
Opel = 16
Range rover = 17
Diats = 18
Ballat = 19
217
Variable
Name
Ford = 20
Fiat = 21
Hillman = 22
VW = 23
Pajero = 24
Landcruiser = 25
Phonix = 27
Others = 31
Corona = 2
FX = 3
Mehran = 5
Margalla = 6
Swift = 7
Khyber = 8
Benz = 9
Civic = 10
Accord = 11
Sunny = 12
Charade = 13
Lancer = 14
Galant = 15
City = 16
Record = 17
Racer = 18
Pride = 19
GX = 20
Cressida = 21
Vitara = 22
Crusing = 23
Petrol = 24
Starlet = 25
Rover = 26
Mark-I = 27
Mark-II = 28
Crown = 29
Diesel = 30
Jeep = 31
140-J = 32
120-Y = 33
Minor = 34
Basliva = 35
Charmant = 36
Zuzahi =37
Hiace = 38
Bolan = 39
Ravi = 40
Baleno = 41
Bedford = 42
218
Variable
Name
Mazda = 43
Volvo = 44
Hino = 45
Suzuki =47
Honda = 48
Others = 54
No = 2
No = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Available = 2
Not Working = 2
Normal = 2
Tight =3
Not Working = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Working = 2
Not Powered = 2
Normal Play = 2
No = 2
No = 2
219
Variable
Name
No = 2
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Not working = 2
Both working = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Normal = 2
Uneven wear = 3
Exist = 1
Not proper = 2
Noisy = 2
No = 2
No = 2
220
Variable
Name
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
Corner No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Good = 2
Satisfactory = 3
Unsatisfactory = 4
Female = 2
Foreigner = 2
18-25 = 2
25-30 = 3
30-40 = 4
>40 = 5
Businessman = 2
221
Variable
Name
Student =7
Retired =8
Driver =9
House Wife = 11
Lawyer = 12
Agriculturist = 13
Forces= 14
Others =15
Primary = 2
Middle = 3
Matric = 4
Intermediate = 5
Graduate = 6
Married = 2
No = 2
No = 2
Income < 300 = 2
3000-5000 = 3
5000=10,000 = 4
10,000-25,000 = 5
25,000-100,000 = 6
>100,000 = 7
No reply = 8
No = 2
survey No = 2
222
Variable
Name
Once a month = 2
Once year = 3
1998 = 2
1999 = 3
Liberty = 2
Race Course = 3
New Garden Town = 4
Montgomery Road = 5
Railway station = 7
Mall Road = 8
Rang Mahal = 10
U.E.T = 13
P.U Old Campus = 14
P.U New Campus = 15
Neela Gumbad = 16
Lahore Airport = 17
Data Darbar = 18
Akbari Mandi =19
None = 2
Diesel = 2
CNG = 3
Some not Proper = 2
Minor = 2
Noon = 2
Evening = 3
Night = 4
Muhammad Rashid =2
Muhammad Imran = 3
Muhammad Shah =4
223
Variable
Name
No = 2
No =1
Normal = 2
Bad = 3
No = 2
Police Siren = 2
None = 3
Normal = 2
Fire + theft = 2
Comprehensive = 3
None = 4
Moderate = 2
Normal = 3
Not strictly = 2
Rarely = 3
V115 How many times you have been fined to None = 1
any offence in driving experience Once = 2
Twice = 3
3-5 times = 4
authority =4
Others = 5
No = 2
No = 2
224
Appendix C8: Output of Different Regression Techniques for Seven
Types of Vehicles
Output of Regression Analysis for Motorcycle Rickshaw
Independent Variable: v076 (Accident in life time) Minimum value: 0

Dependent Variable: v077 (Accident in last two years)
The independent variable contains values of zero. Models INVERSE and S cannot be calculated.
The independent variable contains non-positive values. Models LOGARITHMIC and POWER
cannot be calculated.
Variable: v077 Minimum value: .00

This variable contains non-positive values. Log transform cannot be applied. Models
COMPOUND, POWER, S, GROWTH, EXPONENTIAL and LGSTIC cannot be calculated.
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. LINEAR
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .87703
R Square .76917
Adjusted R Square .76801
Standard Error .22519
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 33.459066 33.459066

Residuals 198 10.040934 .050712
F= 659.78872 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
v076 .662556 .025794 .877026 25.686 .0000

(Constant) .031357 .018056 1.737 .0840
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. LOGARITH
Notes:
12 Independent variable has non-positive values.
225
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. INVERSE
Notes:
11 Independent variable has values of zero.
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. QUADRATI
Multiple R .90298
R Square .81537
Regression 2 35.468391 17.734195

Residuals 197 8.031609 .040770
F= 434.98587 Signif F = .0000
v076 1.006034 .054117 1.331689 18.590 .0000

v076**2 -.177299 .025255 -.502901 -7.020 .0000
(Constant) .004885 .016623 .294 .7692
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. CUBIC
Multiple R .91494
R Square .83712
Regression 3 36.414729 12.138243

Residuals 196 7.085271 .036149
F= 335.78045 Signif F = .0000
226
v076 1.706718 .146120 2.259185 11.680 .0000

v076**2 -1.042636 .170790 -2.957397 -6.105 .0000
v076**3 .219638 .042927 1.670393 5.116 .0000
(Constant) 8.6722621272E-17 .015682 .000 1.0000
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. COMPOUND
Notes:
1 Dependent variable has non-positive values; no equation estimated.
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. POWER
Notes:
_
Dependent variable.. v077 Method.. EXPONENT
Notes:
Notes:
227
Output of Regression Analysis for Motorcycle
Independent Variable:d3_v114(How often you follow traffic rules, rarely)Minimum value: .00

Multiple R .00660
R Square .00004
Adjusted R Square -.00012
Regression 1 .09910 .09909804

Residuals 5998 2274.18824 .37915776
F= .26136 Signif F = .6092
d3_v114 .034389 .067266 .006601 .511 .6092

(Constant) .553846 .008006 69.176 .0000
Notes:
Notes:
228
Multiple R .00660
R Square .00004
Regression 1 .09910 .09909804

Residuals 5998 2274.18824 .37915776
F= .26136 Signif F = .6092
d3_v114 .034389 .067266 .006601 .511 .6092

(Constant) .553846 .008006 69.176 .0000
--------------- Variables not in the Equation ---------------
Variable Beta In Partial Min Toler T Sig T
d3_v114* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
9 Tolerance limits reached; some dependent variables were not entered.
Multiple R .00660
R Square .00004
Regression 1 .09910 .09909804
229
Residuals 5998 2274.18824 .37915776
F= .26136 Signif F = .6092
d3_v114 .034389 .067266 .006601 .511 .6092

(Constant) .553846 .008006 69.176 .0000
d3_v114* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .

d3_v11_1 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
230
Output of Regression Analysis for Passenger Car
Independent Variable: d2_v073 (Educational qualification, Primary) Minimum value: .00
Multiple R .05373
R Square .00289
Regression 1 .89580 .89579945

Residuals 3034 309.35288 .10196206
F= 8.78562 Signif F = .0031
d2_v073 .946623 .319368 .053734 2.964 .0031

(Constant) 1.053377 .005796 181.737 .0000
Notes:
Notes:
231
Multiple R .05373
R Square .00289
Regression 1 .89580 .89579945

Residuals 3034 309.35288 .10196206
F= 8.78562 Signif F = .0031
d2_v073 .946623 .319368 .053734 2.964 .0031

(Constant) 1.053377 .005796 181.737 .0000
d2_v073* .026871 .000000 2.220E-16 .000 1.0000
Notes:
Multiple R .05373
R Square .00289
Regression 1 .89580 .89579945

Residuals 3034 309.35288 .10196206
F= 8.78562 Signif F = .0031
232
d2_v073 .946623 .319368 .053734 2.964 .0031

(Constant) 1.053377 .005796 181.737 .0000
d2_v073* .026871 .000000 2.220E-16 .000 1.0000

d2_v07_1 .026871 .000000 2.220E-16 .000 1.0000
Notes:
Multiple R .06993
R Square .00489
Regression 1 .438734 .43873352

Residuals 3034 89.274318 .02942463
F= 14.91042 Signif F = .0001
d2_v073 1.939594 .332765 1.072435 5.829 .0000

(Constant) 1.031144 .003211 321.162 .0000
Notes:
233
Multiple R .06993
R Square .00489
Regression 1 .438734 .43873352

Residuals 3034 89.274318 .02942463
F= 14.91042 Signif F = .0001
d2_v073 .662479 .171564 .069931 3.861 .0001

(Constant) 1.031144 .003211 321.162 .0000
Notes:
234
Output of Regression Analysis for Wagon
Independent Variable: d1_v019 (Condition of foot brake, loose) Minimum value:.00

Multiple R .03772
R Square .00142
Regression 1 .117169 .11716882

Residuals 168 82.235772 .48949864
F= .23936 Signif F = .6253
d1_v019 .142276 .290806 .037720 .489 .6253

(Constant) .524390 .054633 9.598 .0000
Notes:
Notes:
235
Multiple R .03772
R Square .00142
Regression 1 .117169 .11716882

Residuals 168 82.235772 .48949864
F= .23936 Signif F = .6253
d1_v019 .142276 .290806 .037720 .489 .6253

(Constant) .524390 .054633 9.598 .0000
d1_v019* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Multiple R .03772
R Square .00142
Regression 1 .117169 .11716882
236
Residuals 168 82.235772 .48949864
F= .23936 Signif F = .6253
d1_v019 .142276 .290806 .037720 .489 .6253

(Constant) .524390 .054633 9.598 .0000
d1_v019* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .

d1_v01_1 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
237
Output of Regression Analysis for Bus
Independent Variable: d1_v001(Safety belts, available but not worn) Minimum value: .00

Multiple R .15231
R Square .02320
Regression 1 .575180 .57518018

Residuals 198 24.219820 .12232232
F= 4.70217 Signif F = .0313
d1_v001 .203604 .093894 .152307 2.168 .0313

(Constant) .129730 .025714 5.045 .0000
Notes:
238
Notes:
Multiple R .15231
R Square .02320
Regression 1 .575180 .57518018

Residuals 198 24.219820 .12232232
F= 4.70217 Signif F = .0313
d1_v001 .203604 .093894 .152307 2.168 .0313

(Constant) .129730 .025714 5.045 .0000
d1_v001* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Multiple R .15231
R Square .02320
239
Regression 1 .575180 .57518018
Residuals 198 24.219820 .12232232
F= 4.70217 Signif F = .0313
d1_v001 .203604 .093894 .152307 2.168 .0313

(Constant) .129730 .025714 5.045 .0000
d1_v001* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .

d1_v00_1 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes: 9 Tolerance limits reached; some dependent variables were not entered.
Notes: 1 Dependent variable has non-positive values; no equation estimated.
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
240
Output of Regression Analysis for Auto Rickshaw
Independent Variable: d1_v053 (Presence of any damage, yes) Minimum value: .00

Multiple R .09731
R Square .00947
Regression 1 .0757576 .07575758

Residuals 498 7.9242424 .01591213
F= 4.76099 Signif F = .0296
d1_v053 .037879 .017360 .097312 2.182 .0296

(Constant) .995455 .006014 165.533 .0000
Notes:
Notes:
241
Multiple R .09731
R Square .00947
Regression 1 .0757576 .07575758

Residuals 498 7.9242424 .01591213
F= 4.76099 Signif F = .0296
d1_v053 .037879 .017360 .097312 2.182 .0296

(Constant) .995455 .006014 165.533 .0000
d1_v053* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Multiple R .09731
R Square .00947
Regression 1 .0757576 .07575758
242
Residuals 498 7.9242424 .01591213
F= 4.76099 Signif F = .0296
d1_v053 .037879 .017360 .097312 2.182 .0296

(Constant) .995455 .006014 165.533 .0000
d1_v053* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .

d1_v05_1 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
243
Output of Regression Analysis for Pickup
Independent Variable: d4_v071 (Age group 30-40) Minimum value: .00

Multiple R .17044
R Square .02905
Regression 1 5.07875 5.0787548

Residuals 498 169.74325 .3408499
F= 14.90027 Signif F = .0001
d4_v071 .216781 .056160 .170444 3.860 .0001

(Constant) .365497 .031570 11.578 .0000
Notes:
Notes:
244
Multiple R .17044
R Square .02905
Regression 1 5.07875 5.0787548

Residuals 498 169.74325 .3408499
F= 14.90027 Signif F = .0001
d4_v071 .216781 .056160 .170444 3.860 .0001

(Constant) .365497 .031570 11.578 .0000
d4_v071* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Multiple R .17044
R Square .02905
Regression 1 5.07875 5.0787548

Residuals 498 169.74325 .3408499
245
F= 14.90027 Signif F = .0001
d4_v071 .216781 .056160 .170444 3.860 .0001

(Constant) .365497 .031570 11.578 .0000
d4_v071* 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .

d4_v07_1 1.000000 1.000000 .000000 .000 .
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
Notes:
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
Appendix-E1
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Motorcycle Rickshaw
Foot Brake Condition
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Percent
Valid Loose 29 14.5 15.1 15.1
Normal 104 52.0 54.2 69.3
Tight 59 29.5 30.7 100.0
Total 192 96.0 100.0
Missing 0 8 4.0
Total 200 100.0
254
Appendix-E2
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Motor Cycle
Age Group
Cumulative
Percent
Valid Less than 18 years 49 .8 .8 .8
18 - 25 years 1304 21.7 21.7 22.6
25 - 30 years 1823 30.4 30.4 52.9
30 - 40 years 2274 37.9 37.9 90.8
more than 40 years 550 9.2 9.2 100.0
Total 6000 100.0 100.0
255
Appendix-E3
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Passenger Car
Do You Exceed the Speed Limit?
Cumulative
Percent
Valid Yes 324 8.1 8.8 8.8
No 3367 84.2 91.2 100.0
Total 3691 92.3 100.0
Missing 0 309 7.7
Total 4000 100.0
256
Appendix-E4
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Wagon
Accidents in Life Time
Cumulative
Percent
0 84 49.4 49.4 49.4
1 30 17.6 17.6 67.1
2 20 11.8 11.8 78.8
3 7 4.1 4.1 82.9
Valid
4 18 10.6 10.6 93.5
5 4 2.4 2.4 95.9
6 7 4.1 4.1 100.0
Total 170 100.0 100.0
257
Appendix-E5
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Bus
Are You Satisfied with Your Profession
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
Valid Yes 186 93.0 97.9 97.9
No 4 2.0 2.1 100.0
Total 190 95.0 100.0
Missing 0 10 5.0
Total 200 100.0
258
Appendix-E6
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Auto Rickshaw
Educational Qualification
Cumulative
Percent
Valid Illiterate 5 1.0 1.1 1.1
Primary 18 3.6 3.9 5.0
Middle 159 31.8 34.8 39.8
Matric 255 51.0 55.8 95.6
Intermediate 20 4.0 4.4 100.0
Total 457 91.4 100.0
Missing 0 43 8.6
Total 500 100.0
259
Appendix-E7
Typical Frequency Analysis Table for Pick up
Monthly Income, (Rs.)
Cumulative
Percent
Valid 3,000 - 5,000 23 4.6 4.9 4.9
5,000 - 10,000 316 63.2 67.1 72.0
10,000 - 25,000 130 26.0 27.6 99.6
25,000 - 100,000 2 .4 .4 100.0
Total 471 94.2 100.0
Missing 0 29 5.8
Total 500 100.0
260
Appendix F1: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for
Motorcycle Rickshaw
Accidents in Last Two Years * Foot Brake Condition

Cross-tabulation
Foot Brake Condition

Loose Normal Tight Total
Accidents 0 Count 15 83 48 146
in Last % within Accidents in Last
Two Two Years 10.3% 56.8% 32.9% 100.0%
Years
% within Foot Brake
Condition 51.7% 79.8% 81.4% 76.0%
% of Total 7.8% 43.2% 25.0% 76.0%

1 Count 14 19 10 43
% within Accidents in Last
Two Years 32.6% 44.2% 23.3% 100.0%
% within Foot Brake

Condition 48.3% 18.3% 16.9% 22.4%
% of Total 7.3% 9.9% 5.2% 22.4%

2 Count 0 2 1 3
Two Years .0% 66.7% 33.3% 100.0%
% within Foot Brake

Condition .0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
% of Total .0% 1.0% .5% 1.6%

Total Count 29 104 59 192
Two Years 15.1% 54.2% 30.7% 100.0%
% within Foot Brake

Condition 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 15.1% 54.2% 30.7% 100.0%
261
Appendix F2: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table
for Motorcycle
Accidents in Last Two Years * Rear Indicators Condition

Cross-tabulation
Rear Indicators Condition Total

One Not Both
Working Working Working
Accidents in 0 Count
Last Two 450 292 2148 2890
Years
% within Accidents in
Last Two Years 15.6% 10.1% 74.3% 100.0%
% within Rear Indicators
Condition 43.4% 54.1% 48.6% 48.2%
% of Total 7.5% 4.9% 35.8% 48.2%
1 Count 555 240 2139 2934
Last Two Years 18.9% 8.2% 72.9% 100.0%
Condition 53.6% 44.4% 48.3% 48.9%
% of Total 9.3% 4.0% 35.7% 48.9%
2 Count 29 8 134 171
Last Two Years 17.0% 4.7% 78.4% 100.0%
Condition 2.8% 1.5% 3.0% 2.9%
% of Total .5% .1% 2.2% 2.9%
Total Count 1036 540 4424 6000
Last Two Years 17.3% 9.0% 73.7% 100.0%
Condition 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 17.3% 9.0% 73.7% 100.0%
262
Passenger Car
Accidents in Last Two Years * Front Indicators Condition

Cross-tabulation
Front Indicators Condition
One Not Both
Working Working Working Total
Accidents in 1 Count 46 11 2637 2694
Last Two % within Accidents in
Years 1.7% .4% 97.9% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Front
88.5% 91.7% 96.8% 96.6%
Indicators Condition
% of Total 1.6% .4% 94.6% 96.6%
2 Count 5 0 56 61
8.2% .0% 91.8% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Front
9.6% .0% 2.1% 2.2%
% of Total .2% .0% 2.0% 2.2%
3 Count 0 0 18 18
.0% .0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Front
.0% .0% .7% .6%
% of Total .0% .0% .6% .6%
4 Count 1 1 14 16
6.3% 6.3% 87.5% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Front
1.9% 8.3% .5% .6%
% of Total .0% .0% .5% .6%
Total Count 52 12 2725 2789
1.9% .4% 97.7% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Front
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 1.9% .4% 97.7% 100.0%
263
Appendix F4: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table
for Wagon
Accidents in Last Two Years * Condition of Low Beam

Cross-tabulation
Condition Of Low Beam

Not Working Both Working Total
Accidents in 0 Count 13 83 96
Last Two
Years 13.5% 86.5% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within Condition Of
Low Beam 43.3% 61.0% 57.8%
% of Total 7.8% 50.0% 57.8%

1 Count 9 41 50
Last Two Years 18.0% 82.0% 100.0%
Low Beam 30.0% 30.1% 30.1%
% of Total 5.4% 24.7% 30.1%

2 Count 8 12 20
Last Two Years 40.0% 60.0% 100.0%
Low Beam 26.7% 8.8% 12.0%
% of Total 4.8% 7.2% 12.0%

Total Count 30 136 166
Last Two Years 18.1% 81.9% 100.0%
Low Beam 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 18.1% 81.9% 100.0%
264
Appendix F5: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Bus
Accidents in Last Two Years * Safety Belts

Cross-tabulation
Safety Belts
Available, but
not worn Not available Total
Accidents in 0 Count 10 161 171
Last Two Years
Two Years 5.8% 94.2% 100.0%
% within Safety Belts 66.7% 87.0% 85.5%

% of Total 5.0% 80.5% 85.5%
1 Count 5 24 29
Two Years 17.2% 82.8% 100.0%

% of Total 2.5% 12.0% 14.5%
Two Years 7.5% 92.5% 100.0%

% of Total 7.5% 92.5% 100.0%
265
Auto Rickshaw
Accidents in Last Two Years * Educational Qualification

Cross-tabulation
Educational Qualification
Illiterat
e Primary Middle Matric Intermediate Total
Accidents 0 Count 0 0 0 4 0 4
in Last % within
Two Accidents in .0% .0% .0% 100.0% .0% 100.0%
Years Last Two Years
% within
Educational .0% .0% .0% 1.6% .0% .9%
Qualification
% of Total .0% .0% .0% .9% .0% .9%
1 Count 5 18 155 251 20 449
% within
Accidents in 1.1% 4.0% 34.5% 55.9% 4.5% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within
Educational 100.0% 100.0% 97.5% 98.4% 100.0% 98.2%
Qualification
% of Total 1.1% 3.9% 33.9% 54.9% 4.4% 98.2%
2 Count 0 0 4 0 0 4
% within
Accidents in .0% .0% 100.0% .0% .0% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within
Educational .0% .0% 2.5% .0% .0% .9%
Qualification
% of Total .0% .0% .9% .0% .0% .9%
Total Count 5 18 159 255 20 457
% within
Accidents in 1.1% 3.9% 34.8% 55.8% 4.4% 100.0%
Last Two Years
% within
Educational 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Qualification
% of Total 1.1% 3.9% 34.8% 55.8% 4.4% 100.0%
266
Appendix F7: Typical Cross-Tabulation Analysis Table for Pickup
Accidents in Last Two Years * Do you use cell phone while driving?
Cross-tabulation
Do you use cell phone
while driving? Total
.No Yes
Accidents in Last 0 Count
160 149 309
Two Years
Two Years 51.8% 48.2% 100.0%
% within Do you use cell
phone while driving? 64.0% 59.6% 61.8%
% of Total 32.0% 29.8% 61.8%
1 Count 78 87 165
Two Years 47.3% 52.7% 100.0%
% of Total 15.6% 17.4% 33.0%
2 Count 12 14 26
Two Years 46.2% 53.8% 100.0%
% of Total 2.4% 2.8% 5.2%
Two Years 50.0% 50.0% 100.0%
% of Total 50.0% 50.0% 100.0%
267
Appendix G1: Actual number of accidents per motorcyclist,
estimated number of accidents per motorcyclist, total and
average annual number of accidents committed by 1000
motorcyclists in the year 2015
RS
mirror, ind, 1 smoking No. of profession,
S.No. no working Nal Nal*1.1 driv,yes cigs no Nae Naa Na2
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
16 0 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
17 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
18 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
19 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
20 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
21 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
22 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
24 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
25 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
26 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
27 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
28 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
29 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
30 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
31 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
32 0 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
33 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
34 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
35 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
36 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
37 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
38 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
39 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
40 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
41 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
42 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
268
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
43 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
44 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
45 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
46 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
47 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
48 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
49 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
50 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
51 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
52 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
53 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
54 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
55 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
56 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
57 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
58 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
59 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
60 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.1 0 0
61 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 1 0.9 0.55 1
62 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
63 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
64 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
65 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
66 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
67 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
68 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
69 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
70 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
71 0 1 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
72 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
73 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
74 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
76 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
77 0 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 1.1 2
78 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
79 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
80 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
81 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
82 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
83 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
84 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
85 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
86 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
88 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
89 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
90 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
269
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
91 0 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
92 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
94 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
95 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
96 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
97 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
98 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 1 0.9 0.55 1
99 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
100 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
101 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
102 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
103 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
104 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
105 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
106 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
107 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
108 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
109 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
110 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
111 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
112 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
113 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
114 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
115 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
116 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
117 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
119 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
120 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
121 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
122 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
123 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
124 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
126 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
127 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
128 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
129 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
131 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
132 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
133 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
134 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
135 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
136 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
137 1 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
138 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
270
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
139 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
140 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
141 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
142 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
143 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 1 0.8 1.1 2
144 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
146 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 1 0.8 0.55 1
147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
148 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
149 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
150 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
151 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
152 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
153 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
154 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
155 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
156 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0 0
157 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
158 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
159 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0 0
160 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
161 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
162 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
163 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
164 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
165 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
166 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
167 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
168 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
169 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
170 0 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0 0
171 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
172 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
174 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
175 0 0 1 1.1 1 0 0 0.4 0 0
176 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
177 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
178 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
179 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
180 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
181 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
182 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
183 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
184 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
185 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
186 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
271
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
187 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
188 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
189 1 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
191 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
192 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
193 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
194 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
195 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
196 0 0 4 4.4 0 0 0 1.6 1.1 2
197 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
198 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
199 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
200 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
201 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
202 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
203 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
204 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
205 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
206 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
207 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
208 0 1 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
209 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
210 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
211 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
212 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
213 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
214 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
215 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
216 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
217 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
218 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
219 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
220 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
221 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
222 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
223 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
224 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
226 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
227 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
228 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
229 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
231 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
232 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
233 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
234 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
272
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
235 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
236 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
237 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
238 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
239 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
240 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
241 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
242 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
243 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
244 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0 0
245 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
246 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
247 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
248 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
249 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
250 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
251 0 0 4 4.4 1 3 1 1.8 1.1 2
252 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
253 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
254 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
255 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
256 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
257 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
258 1 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
259 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
260 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
261 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
262 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
263 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
264 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
265 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
266 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
267 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
268 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
269 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
270 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
271 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
272 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
273 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
274 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
275 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
276 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.6 0.55 1
277 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
278 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
279 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
280 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
281 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
282 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
273
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
283 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
284 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
285 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
286 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
287 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
288 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
289 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
290 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
291 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
292 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
293 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
294 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
295 1 1 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
296 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
297 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
298 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
299 1 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
300 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
301 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
302 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
303 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
304 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
305 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
306 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
307 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
308 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
309 1 0 1 1.1 1 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
310 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
311 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
312 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
313 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
314 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
315 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
316 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
317 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
318 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
319 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
320 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
321 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
322 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
323 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
324 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
325 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
326 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
327 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
328 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
329 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
330 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
274
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
331 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
332 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
333 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
334 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
335 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
336 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 1.1 2
337 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 1 0.9 0.55 1
338 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
339 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
340 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
341 0 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 0.9 1.1 2
342 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
343 0 1 2 2.2 1 0 0 0.9 0.55 1
344 0 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 0.9 0.55 1
345 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
346 0 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
347 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
348 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
349 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
350 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
351 0 1 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
352 0 1 2 2.2 0 3 1 0.9 0.55 1
353 0 0 1 1.1 0 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
354 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
355 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
356 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
357 1 1 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
358 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
359 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
360 1 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
361 0 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 0.9 0.55 1
362 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
363 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
364 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
365 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
366 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
367 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
368 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
369 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
370 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0.1 0 0
371 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0.2 0 0
372 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
373 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
374 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
375 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
376 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
377 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
378 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
275
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
379 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
380 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
381 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
382 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
383 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
384 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
385 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
386 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
387 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
388 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
389 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
390 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
391 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
392 1 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
393 0 1 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 0.55 1
394 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
395 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
396 0 1 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 1.1 2
397 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
398 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
399 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
400 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
401 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
402 1 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
403 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
404 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
405 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
406 0 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 1.1 2
407 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
408 0 0 3 3.3 1 2 1 1.3 0.55 1
409 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
410 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
411 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
412 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
413 0 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 0.9 0.55 1
414 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
415 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
416 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 1.1 2
417 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
418 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0.55 1
419 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
420 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
421 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
422 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
423 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
424 1 0 3 3.3 1 2 0 1.3 0.55 1
425 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
276
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
427 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
428 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
429 0 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
430 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
431 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
432 1 0 2 2.2 1 2 1 0.9 0.55 1
433 0 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 0.9 1.1 2
434 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
435 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
436 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
437 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
438 1 1 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 0.55 1
439 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
440 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
441 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
442 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0.1 0 0
443 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
444 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 0 0
445 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
446 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
447 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
448 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
449 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
450 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
451 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
452 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
453 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
454 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
455 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
456 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
457 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
458 1 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 1.1 2
459 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
460 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
461 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
462 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
463 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
464 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
465 0 0 2 2.2 0 0 1 0.8 0.55 1
466 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
467 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
468 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
469 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
470 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
471 0 0 1 1.1 0 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
472 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
473 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
474 1 1 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
277
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
475 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
476 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
477 0 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
478 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
479 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
480 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
481 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
482 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
483 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 1.1 2
484 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
485 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
486 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
487 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
488 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
489 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
490 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
491 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
492 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
493 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
494 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
495 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
496 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
497 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
498 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
499 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
500 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
501 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
502 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
503 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
504 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
505 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
506 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
507 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
508 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
509 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
510 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
511 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
512 1 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
513 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
514 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
515 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
516 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
517 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
518 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
519 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
520 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
521 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
522 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
278
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
523 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
524 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
525 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0.2 0 0
526 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
527 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
528 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
529 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
530 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
531 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
532 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
533 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
534 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
535 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
536 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
537 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
539 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
540 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
541 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
542 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
543 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
544 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
545 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
546 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
547 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
548 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
549 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
550 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
551 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
552 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
553 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
554 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
555 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
556 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
557 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
558 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
559 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
560 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
561 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
562 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
563 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
564 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
565 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
566 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
567 1 1 2 2.2 1 0 0 0.9 0 0
568 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
569 1 1 3 3.3 1 1 0 1.3 1.1 2
570 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
279
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
571 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
572 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
573 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
574 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
575 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
576 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
577 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 1 0.8 0 0
578 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
579 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
580 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
581 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
582 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
583 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
584 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
585 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
586 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
587 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
588 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
589 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
590 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
591 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
592 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
593 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
594 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
595 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
596 1 1 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.3 1.1 2
597 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
598 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
599 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
601 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
602 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
603 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 0 0
604 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
605 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
606 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
607 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
608 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
609 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
610 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
611 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
612 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
613 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
614 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 0 0
615 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
616 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
617 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
618 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
280
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
619 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
620 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
621 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
622 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
623 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
624 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
625 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
626 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
627 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
629 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
630 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
631 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
632 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
633 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
634 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
635 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
636 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
637 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
638 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
639 1 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
640 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
641 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
642 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.1 0 0
643 0 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0 0
644 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
645 1 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
646 0 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
647 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
648 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
649 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
650 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
651 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 0 0
652 1 0 3 3.3 1 3 0 1.4 0 0
653 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
654 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
655 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
656 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
657 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
658 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
659 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
660 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
661 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
662 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
663 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
664 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
665 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
666 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
281
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
667 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
668 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
669 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
670 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
671 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
672 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
673 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
674 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
675 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
676 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
677 0 1 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
678 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
679 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
680 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
681 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
682 0 1 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
683 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
684 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
685 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
686 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
687 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
688 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
689 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
690 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
691 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
692 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
693 0 0 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
694 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
695 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
696 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
697 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
698 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
699 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
700 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
701 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
702 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
703 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
704 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
705 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
706 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
707 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
708 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
709 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
710 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
711 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
712 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
713 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
714 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
282
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
715 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
716 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
717 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
718 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
719 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
720 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
721 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.1 0 0
722 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 1 0.9 0.55 1
723 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
724 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
725 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
726 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
727 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
728 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
729 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
730 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
731 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
732 0 1 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
733 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
734 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
735 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
736 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
737 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
738 0 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 1.1 2
739 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
740 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
741 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
742 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
743 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
744 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
745 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
746 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
747 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
748 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
749 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
750 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
751 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
752 0 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
753 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
754 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
755 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
756 0 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
757 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
758 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
759 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 1 0.9 0.55 1
760 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
761 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
762 1 0 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
283
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
763 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
764 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
765 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
766 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
767 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
768 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
769 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
770 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
771 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
772 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
773 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
774 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
775 0 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
776 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
777 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
778 0 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
779 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
780 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
781 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
782 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
783 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
784 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
785 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
786 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
787 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
788 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
789 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
790 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.1 0 0
791 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
792 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
793 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
794 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
795 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
796 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
797 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
798 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
799 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
800 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
801 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
802 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
803 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0.2 0 0
804 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
805 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
806 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
807 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
808 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0.55 1
809 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
810 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
284
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
811 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
812 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
813 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 1.1 2
814 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
815 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
816 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
817 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
818 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.6 0 0
819 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
820 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
821 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 0 0
822 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
823 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
824 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
825 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
826 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
827 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
828 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
829 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
830 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
831 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
832 0 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0 0
833 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
834 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
835 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
836 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
837 0 0 1 1.1 1 0 0 0.4 0 0
838 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
839 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
840 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
841 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
842 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
843 0 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
844 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
845 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
846 1 0 2 2.2 0 0 0 0.8 0 0
847 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
848 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
849 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
850 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
851 1 0 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
852 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
853 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
854 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
855 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
856 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
857 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
858 0 0 4 4.4 0 0 0 1.6 1.1 2
285
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
859 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
860 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
861 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
862 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
863 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
864 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
865 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
866 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
867 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
868 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
869 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
870 0 1 3 3.3 0 0 0 1.2 0.55 1
871 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
872 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
873 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
874 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
875 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
876 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
877 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
878 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
879 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
880 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0 0
881 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
882 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
883 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
884 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
885 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
886 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
887 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
888 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
889 1 0 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0 0
890 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
891 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
892 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
893 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
894 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
895 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
896 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
897 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
898 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 0.5 0 0
899 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
901 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
902 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
903 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0 0
904 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
905 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
906 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
286
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
907 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
908 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
909 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
910 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
911 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
912 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
913 0 0 4 4.4 1 3 0 1.8 1.1 2
914 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
915 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
916 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
917 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
918 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
919 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
920 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
921 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
922 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
923 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
924 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
925 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
926 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
927 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
928 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
929 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
930 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
931 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
932 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
933 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
934 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
935 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
936 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
937 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
938 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
939 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
940 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
941 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
942 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
943 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
944 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
945 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
946 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0 0
947 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
948 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
949 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
950 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
951 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
952 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
953 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0.1 0 0
954 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
287
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
955 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
956 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
957 1 1 2 2.2 1 1 0 0.9 0.55 1
958 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
959 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 1.1 2
960 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 1 1.0 1.1 2
961 1 0 3 3.3 0 0 1 1.3 0.55 1
962 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.1 0 0
963 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
964 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
965 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
966 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
967 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
968 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.6 0.55 1
969 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
970 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
971 1 0 1 1.1 1 0 1 0.5 0.55 1
972 1 0 2 2.2 1 3 0 1.0 0.55 1
973 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
974 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
975 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
976 1 1 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
977 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
978 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
979 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
980 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
981 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 1 0.5 0.55 1
982 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 1 0.5 0.55 1
983 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
984 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
985 0 0 1 1.1 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
986 1 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
987 1 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.6 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.1 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.2 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.1 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.1 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
Total annual number of accidents committed by 1000 motorcyclists in the year 2015 370
Average number of accidents 0.370
288
Appendix G2: Total and average annual number of accidents
committed by 1000 motorcyclists in the year 2006
RS
S.No no working Nal Nal*1.01 driv,yes cigs no Nae Naa Na2
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.01 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.01 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.01 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.01 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.01 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.01 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.01 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.01 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.01 1 1 1 0.4 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.01 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
989 1 1 1 1.01 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.01 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.01 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.02 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.01 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.01 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
289
RS ind, 1 smoking No. of profession,

S.No mirror, no working Nal Nal*1.02 driv,yes cigs no Nae Naa Na2
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.02 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.02 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.02 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.02 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.02 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.02 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.02 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.02 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.02 1 1 1 0.4 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.02 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.02 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.02 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.02 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.04 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.02 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.02 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
290
RS
S.No no working Nal Nal*1.03 driv,yes cigs no Nae Naa Na2
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.03 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.03 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.03 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.03 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.03 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.02 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.03 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.03 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.03 1 1 1 0.4 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.03 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.03 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.03 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.03 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.06 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.03 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.03 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
291
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.04 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.04 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.04 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.04 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.04 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.04 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.04 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.04 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.04 1 1 1 0.4 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.04 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.04 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.04 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.04 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.08 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.04 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.04 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
292
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.05 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.05 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.05 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.05 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.05 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.05 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.05 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.05 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.05 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.05 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.05 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.05 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.05 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.1 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.05 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.05 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
293
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.06 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.06 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.06 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.06 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.06 1 1 0 0.4 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.06 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.06 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.06 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.06 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.06 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.06 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.06 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.06 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.12 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.06 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.06 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
294
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.07 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.07 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.07 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.07 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.07 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.07 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.07 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.07 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.07 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.07 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.07 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.07 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.07 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.14 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.07 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.07 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
295
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.08 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.08 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.08 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.08 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.08 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.08 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.08 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.08 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.08 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
14 0 0 1 1.08 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.08 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.08 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.08 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.16 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.08 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.08 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
296
RS
V1 V2 D1 D2 D3 D4
1 0 1 1 1.09 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
2 0 0 1 1.09 1 2 0 0.5 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.1 0 0
4 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.1 0 0
5 0 0 1 1.09 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
6 0 0 1 1.09 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
7 0 0 1 1.09 1 1 0 0.5 0.55 1
8 0 0 1 1.09 0 0 0 0.4 0.55 1
9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
11 0 0 1 1.09 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
12 0 0 1 1.09 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
13 0 0 1 1.09 1 1 1 0.5 0.55 1
987 1 0 1 1.09 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
988 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
989 1 1 1 1.09 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
990 1 0 1 1.09 0 0 1 0.4 0.55 1
991 0 0 1 1.09 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
992 1 1 2 2.18 1 2 0 0.9 0.55 1
993 0 1 1 1.09 1 3 0 0.5 0.55 1
994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
995 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.1 0 0
996 0 0 1 1.09 1 2 0 0.5 0.55 1
997 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0 0 0
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DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS

AMONG VEHICULAR AND DRIVER’S

QAISER NAHEED HASHMI

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

QAISER NAHEED HASHMI

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG VEHICULAR

7.5 PASSENGER CAR .......................................................................... 86

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 153

Appendix-A1: Data Regarding Accidents Traffic Police .......................................... 158

Appendix-G5 Total and average annual number of accidents commited by 1000

Figure 6.1 Flow diagram of research work ........................................................... 58

AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic

Different modes of transportation plying on the roads of Lahore include Bicycles,

contributing factors, for example, characteristics of vehicle and drivers, violations by

• Motorcycle rickshaw (Qingqi)

In this research work characteristics of the aforementioned vehicles along with

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH

The objectives of this research work include:

• To identify the important relevant vehicular and driver’s characteristics causing

• To develop accident prediction models (APMs) relating number of traffic

• To give suggestions, conclusions and recommendations to lessen the number of

• Visits to different Road Engineering and Management Agencies and Law

- Accident means collision of a vehicle with another vehicle or some

- Number of accidents per year is taken as dependent variable and

- Other factors contributing to accidents such as road conditions and

• Finalization of different survey sites within Metropolitan Lahore for data

• Establishment of different survey teams, consisting of students of University of

• Development of the coding manual so that the collected information can be

• Identification of significant characteristics of vehicles and drivers contributing to

• Conclusions and recommendations to lessen the number of traffic accidents on the

1.4 THESIS ORGANIZATION

Chapter-2 reviews the literature available on the characteristics of drivers.

Chapter-3 outlines the literature available on the characteristics of vehicles.

Conclusions and recommendations are given in Chapter-8.

Seven appendices (A, B, C, D, E, F & G) are included in this report. Appendix-A1

DRIVER’S CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY

2.2 AN OVERVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH

• Race (white, black, Hispanic, other race).

There is a significant involvement of buses in traffic accidents in Pakistan (Downing, et

2.3 FINALIZATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF DRIVERS FOR THE STUDY

• Age Group (Year range)

• Driving Experience in Years

• Vehicle Driven per Year in km

• No. of Accidents in Life Time of driver

• No. of Accidents in Last 2 Years of driver

• Driver Smoking habit

• Number of Years of Smoking

• Monthly Income (Rupees)

• Driver License Issued

• Driver License Available at the time of the survey

• Do you posses route permit?

• Do you exceed the speed limit?

• How is the behaviour of police with you?

• Are you satisfied with your profession?

• Amount (Rs.) per month given to Police

• Your driving behaviour in congestion?

• How often you follow traffic rules?

• In your view, what type of Improvements should be made?

• Do you have cell phone?

• Do you use cell phone while driving?

VEHICULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND ROAD SAFETY