Democratic Presidential Primary Tracker

The Quest for 1990

Iowa

Primary Date Details Estimated

Estimate TV ad in
TV ad spending spending
Iowa in IA
Date: Monday, February 3, 2020
Format: Caucuses – 1,600 locations
Steyer $10.0 M
Total Delegates: 49

Buttigieg $5.6 M
Caucus Process...Get ready to move around the room
First alignment Sanders $4.9 M
Participants show their support for presidential candidates by
dividing into candidate groups in the room. There may be undecided Yang $3.6 M
voters too.
Warren $2.6 M
First count
Everyone gets counted, and caucus organizers take note of which
Biden $2.5 M
groups have less than 15 percent of the total. (In most caucus
locations, candidates will need at least 15 percent to be eligible to
win delegates there.) Groups that have more than 15 percent are
Klobuchar $1.4 M
considered “viable”, and members of that group must stay with their
candidate.
Bennet $0.8 M
Note: Iowa precinct caucuses set different thresholds depending
on how many delegates each caucus can elect. No threshold is less
Gabbard $0.2 M
than 15%, though smaller precincts might set a higher bar to clear.
Bloomberg $0.1 M
Second alignment
If a voter’s selected candidate wasn’t viable in the first alignment,
they have a few choices. If there’s another candidate they like, they Primary Calendar
could join that group. Alternatively, they could try to persuade other
WA
voters from non-viable groups to join their group — though they 89
VT ME
MT ND
run the risk of falling short and not having their votes contribute to
16 24
19 14 91 MA
OR
MN
61
the allocation of delegates. And voters can also stay undecided or ID 75 NH 26 RI
SD WI NY
20 24
16 84 274
WY MI 60 CT
choose to sit out the second alignment. 14
IA
125
PA 128 NJ
NV NE 49 186
36 29 IL OH

Final count and delegates distributed

UT IN 21 DE
155 136
29 CO 82
CA WV
67 KS MO VA 96
28 MD
Another count is taken again. Every candidate who clears the
415 KY 99
39 68
54
NC 20 DC

viability threshold the second time around is awarded at least one

TN 110
AZ OK 64 6 AS
NM AR SC
67 37

delegate, with more going to candidates with more votes. Using a 34 31 54

MS GA 7 GU
AL
36 52 105

mathematical formula, the state party calculates how many “state TX

228
LA
54
6 MP

51 PR
delegate equivalents” each candidate has won at each caucus AK FL 7 VI

location and adds them up. The candidate with the most “state
15 219
13 DA

delegate equivalents” wins the most delegates to the Democratic HI

24

National Convention — and wins the Iowa caucuses.

February Super Tuesday March 4–31 April May June
Contests 4 16 13 11 7 6
Current Polling in sugests no candidate will Delegates 155 1,357 1,091 854 300 222
win a majority of the delegates Delegates % 3.9% 34.1% 27.4% 21.5% 7.5% 5.6%
23.8% 20.2% Cumulative % 3.9% 38.0% 65.4% 86.9% 94.4% 100%
15.8%

14.6%
Past Winners
2016 GOP: Ted Cruz (27.6%)
9.6% 2016 Dems: Hillary Clinton (49.9%)
3.8% 3.6%
2012 GOP: Rick Santorum (24.6%)
2.0% 1.0%
2008 GOP: Mike Huckabee (34.4%)
Sanders Biden Buttigieg Warren Klobuchar Yang Steyer Gabbard Bloomberg 2008 Dems: Barack Obama (37.6%)
*RealClearPolitics average 1/3/2020 Bold indicates that candidate went on to win their party’s nomination.

No democratic candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and
lost the nomination.

“Since it cost a lot to win. And even more to lose. You and me bound to spend some time, wondering what to choose.”
– Robert Hunter