Chapters 14-15: Day 3 - Tree Diagrams & Bayes’s Rule name 2-014 _ortabitiet AP Statistics — Probability Example: Late for School Shannon hits the snooze bar on her alarm clock on 60% of school days. If she doesn’t hit the snooze bar, there is only a 0.10 probability that she is late to her first class. However, if she hits the snooze bar, the probability that she's late is 0.3. (a) Use a tree diagram to represent this situation. Let tt be Hee arent Shannon hits Snoore- ae, and L be the event shat she is late ‘/ \ o/ \%s (b) On a randomly chosen day, what is the probability that Shannon is late for class? P(L)= PCHAL) + PC HEAL) P(t) PCLIH) + PCH): PLL (HS) ob (0%) + OFC = ole + 004 = CO.2E When is it better to use a tree diagram than a two-way table? uv when youre dealing, with events that happen Moa Sequence orcier " wv when yout Wer con dchonc’ Prrbabuik eS (dependent events) {c) Suppose that Shannon is late for school. What is the probability that she hit the snooze bar that eed emnote: none of 4ese Plate) = ecto) WT oe PCL) on branches of he tree— PCH) P(LLH) Pie ae 4 oak ee eeThe tormvta looks intimi dating, but remember yee just vsed it for the previous problem without ech rowing, cw! you just used Bayes’s Rule: » | Le Le] [e Sometimes we Know &® happens before we Know if & happencdl - pele) = PCANm), ___P(ane) Pie) P(AAB) + PLA“AP2) > __e(&): PUA) fxomole: False Poskives and Drug Testi PLAyP (BIA) + P(A‘): PCDI AS) Many employers require prospective employees to take a drug test. A positive result on this test indicates that the prospective employee uses illegal drugs. However, not all people who test positive actually use drugs. Suppose that 4% of prospective employees use drugs, the false positive rate is 5%, and the false negative rate is 10%. Let I T Pee Hae trend Weg eh on peas hve Sneha tet en—ployet- PCT) = PLDT) +P(D‘nT) wv e = PCD) PCtID) + PCD¢) P(t] DY) ° & = 0.04 (0.4) + 0.46 (0.05) 0.036 + 0.048 ¢ }. ond > (b) Whatis prospective employee who tested. / D pe & ee, Ne positive actually used illegal drugs? i YN, Plplt)=Pcoar), P¢0)-Perp) a ape oe ~. | eC) PCT) = 0:04(0.9) 0.06 6 .0S4 OeF