Risk Specification

1.- Failure rate calculation

We will calculate failure rate with the expression:

We need to know the parameters A, B, C and the value of the condition score x.

The condition score x is calculated as:

x= 1-Hi

where Hi is the health index of the equipment.

5. The parameters A, B and C will be calculated as follows:

where,

λ(0) = best failure rate of the equipment population

λ(1) = worst failure rate of the equipment population

λ(1/2) = average failure rate of the equipment population

We can obtain λ(0), λ(1) and λ(1/2 from the historical data for that type of equipment. If we don’t
have historical data, we can obtain these values from references tables. Also, if we don’t have so
much historical data and the best and worst failures rates obtained are too low or too high, then
we need to obtain these values from reference tables. In the Excel file there is a reference table for
the main equipments, but we need to consider a reference table for all type of equipments.

The failure rate calculated in this way, takes into account the historical data of the population and
the present condition of the particular equipment.
2.- Calculation of Probability of Failure

The probability of failure (PoF) will be calculated as:

where F(t) is the probability of a failure to happen for a time lesser than T, and λ is the failure rate.

There is another type of calculations for the probability of failure, for example, considering the
Weibull distribution, but at this moment we will not use them.

3.- Consequences of Failure

The consequences of failure usually is an open question because different clients wants to
contemplate different types of consequences, also, the data for these consequences must be
provided by the client. In this way, it is best to leave some open tables with simple calculations for
each parameter of the table. The following scheme is proposed.

We contemplate different consequences C1, C2, C3,…Cn (usually “n” should be less than 15).
Consequences could be:

- Equivalent interruption time of the power installed (TIEPI)

- Number of equivalent interruptions of installed power (NIEPI)
- (In Anglo-Saxon literature are used the indexes SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI).
- Cost of equipment repair or replacement.
- Critical customers affected (such as hospitals, public transport network,…)
- Environmental impact
- Safety impact
- Company image
- …

In order to have a relative importance of each consequence, we can assign a scale:

- Low (0-25%)
- Medium (25-50%)
- High (50-75%)
- Extremely High (75-100%)

This scale should be configurable, for example: 0-35; 35-60; 60-85; 85-100).

It should be also important to translate each consequence to its monetary value, in order to
quantize these consequences in an absolute cost.
For each consequence we assign a weight w1,w2,w3,…wn, so the total score of consequences are:

CT = w1*C1+w2*C2+…+wn*Cn

The Risk for each equipment should be:

R = PoF*CT