Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala

Faculta de Ingeniería
Escuela de Ingeniería civil
Hidrología
Ing. Castañón.
Seccion: N+

Maximum value estimates Gumbel method

Guatemala 30 de abril de 2018

 1 Índex
1 Índex...........................................................................................................................................2

2 Introduction...............................................................................................................................3

3 Objectives...................................................................................................................................3

4 Research.....................................................................................................................................3

4.1 Maximum value estimation................................................................................................3

4.1.1 Gumbel method..........................................................................................................3

5 Example......................................................................................................................................6

5.1 Process...............................................................................................................................6

6 Conclusions................................................................................................................................7

7 Bibliography...............................................................................................................................7
 2 Introduction
In the research work that will be presented below, the estimation of maximum values was studied
by the Gumbel method. The objectives that are intended to be achieved with the development of
said research are stated. Then in the research section are the concepts that will help the reader to
have a better understanding of the subject. After developing the concepts of the Gumbel method,
an exercise of the method is carried out in order to apply the concepts of the method.

3 Objectives
• Describe Gumbel method for the estimation of maximum and minimum flows.

• Take an example of the Gumbel method

4 Research

4.1 Maximum value estimation

4.1.1 Gumbel method

In probability theory the Gumbel distribution (1891-1966) is used to model the distribution of the
maximum (or minimum), so it is used to calculate extreme values. For example, represent the
distribution of the maximum level of a river from the data of maximum levels during 10 years.

The potential applicability of the Gumbel distribution to represent maximums is due to the
extreme value theory which indicates that it is likely to be useful if the data sample has a normal or
exponential distribution.

The "maximum value" that you want to determine for a certain return period is determined by
means of the expression:

�=��+𝐷�=��+𝐾�_(�−1)

X: maximum value (flow or precipitation) for a return period T

Xm: average of the given series of maximum values

Dx: deviation from the mean, which is estimated by the product: k · S n-1

Where:

K: frequency factor, which indicates the number of times of standard deviation in which the
extreme value considered exceeds the average of the series.

S n-1 : standard deviation, standard deviation of extreme values.

The value of the variable "k" is estimated from the knowledge of the return period in years and the
number of years available in the series:
Yt : gumbel variable for the return period T. It is determined from the value of the return period.
The value can be obtained from the attached table. Yt = -ln ln (T/T-1)

Yn: value that is obtained from the number of years of the series, using tables

Sn: value that is obtained from the number of years of the series, using tables

• Table. Values of "yt" for different periods of return T

T 2 5 10 25 30 50 75 100 250 500

Yt 0.36651 1.49994 2.25037 3.19853 3.38429 3.90194 4.31078 4.60015 5.5194 6.2136

• Table. Values of "yn" and "Sn" according to number of observations

 5 Example
Estimate the maximum precipitation of station A, located in Rio Hondo. Given the average rainfall
per year, for a return period of 10 years.

Year Precipitation Year Precipitation Year Precipitation Year Precipitation

(mm) (mm) (mm) (mm)

1985 149.83 1993 130.68 2001 125.53 2009 134.17

1986 124.86 1994 108.93 2002 119.42 2010 204.44

1987 135.11 1995 179.81 2003 145.95 2011 171.78

1988 161.97 1996 141.62 2004 129.48 2012 156.63

1989 158.98 1997 126.01 2005 168.52 2013 138.82

1990 182.80 1998 153.60 2006 178.09 2014 152.04

1991 152.60 1999 154.68 2007 157.88 2015 151.88

1992 130.63 2000 108.77 2008 158.77

5.1 Process

1. SThe average of the precipitation values given is determined

Xm= 144.99mm

Determine k, observed values: 31

Yt= 2.25037

Yn= 0.53713

Sn= 1.11592

Sn-1= 22.27
 mm

6 Conclusions

 Gumbel's method is based on the concept of maximums of a probability distribution, this

development the method to obtain maximum probable data based on a database.

 As can be seen in section 4, an exercise was performed with data provided in the hydrology
laboratory of a station, which had records of 31 years for average rainfall. It was obtained
as maximum data estimated for a return period of 10 years is 179.18 mm of precipitation.

7 Bibliography
 http://ocw.upm.es/ingenieria-agroforestal/climatologia-aplicada-a-la-ingenieria-y-
medioambiente/contenidos/tema-7/METODO-DE-GUMBEL.pdf