SALVADOR, FRANCISCO M. DENNIS M. PLACIDO, D.

Philo
March 18, 2019 Professor
M.A. Philosophy Saint Louis University
Philosophical Anthropology (5:30-8:30 S, S310)

On “Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

1. What is the “Black Swan” according to Taleb?

The Black Swan (The Impact of the Highly Improbable) – this is the complete title of Nassim Nicholas
Taleb’s New York Times Bestseller book. I highlighted the subtitle part – impact of highly improbable,
to obtain a better grasp of what the Black Swan is about. Before the 18th century, Europeans always
believed swans to be white. However, in 1697, Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black
swans in Australia. Before this, Europeans always believed the highest improbability of a white swan
because no one has ever saw any other color, most notedly the opposite color black, since time
immemorial. Perhaps, nobody was of the thinking that a swan can come naturally having black plumage.
It was absurd for anybody to even think of a black swan. But lo and behold! There it was! What impact it
did create to the human mind and imagination for the Europeans! They might not have prepared
themselves for such awakening. They were perplexed or even in denial for such new information or a new
reality. They were not ready, actually, for the reality.

Taleb’s The Black Swan emphasizes that human knowledge grows and evolves and so does society
and the environment. Logic and Science may help us to predict better. However, history has proven,
time and again, on the unpredictability of realities that arise. The Magellan exploration proved the
world over that the earth was not flat. Galileo was right all along! Asteroids are always believed to be
running in orbit. The recent “oumuamua” phenomenon, however, though within the realm of predictability
on interstellar objects, has brought more questions than answers on how asteroids or comets go. Did
scientists expect such? Nobody seemed to have expected an object resembling an asteroid or comet to
have its own exclusive course. Furthermore, even if Islamic Extremism, though predicted by experts, were
themselves horrified on how the recent events in Iraq, Syria and Libya could have happened. This is what
the Black Swan tried to show – that man can be trapped with logic and science and could tend to ignore
ignorance. For Taleb, Karl Popper was right in a way in believing that a theory in the
empirical sciences can never be proven, but it can be falsified, meaning that it can and should be
scrutinized by decisive experiments. Nevertheless, Popper’s bias on the scientific method is itself
threading the line of dogmatism. Thus, luck and ignorance become unnecessary given elements. But for
Taleb, these must be part of understanding and accepting Black Swans. And so man must be prepared
to accept the improbables in our quest for truths and realities – the black swans
2. What makes the analogy of Taleb on the idea of the “Black Swan” relevant to the realm of understanding the
human person in our world today?

In understanding the human person in our world today, Taleb’s concept about The Black Swan is
extending both a reminder and a challenge to him on the danger of delimiting possibilities (in
themselves, in their societies and in their environment) and of living blindly within the blinkers of
dogma. Certainty is a worthy quest. However, in the human person’s quest for certainty, he is molded to
live in a box of realities that he so believes. Let me illustrate by pointing to one part in the book that I
have come along. To wit:
“…Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise,
not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful
if that’s what you are seeking….”
I have chosen these lines by Taleb in his book to emphasize how society is dictating the realities of man’s
living his life in the world today. Success is being defined by the circumstances that a few other men have
come to experience. Experts have become motivators on how man must and should live his life – that is,
“according to…” and “to model oneself to…” Man, if he fails to live by such rules may be classified as
living an unworthy life. Definitions on success has become delimited by the few experts. For instance, in
the period shortly before and after World War 2 in our country, the only sure ticket for economic status
success for almost all Filipinos was to obtain a degree from formal schooling. Children were instilled with
the idea that to excel in school through good grades means the only sure way to improve the economic
condition of his life. Then comes Henry Sy. Then comes Bill Gates. Then comes Marck Zuckerberg. They
were all college drop outs. What about President Joseph Estrada? Were they not successful in their own
rights? Taleb may have been right ,that – not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only
painful if that’s what you are seeking. Manny Pacquiao will teach us better about such idea. Nevertheless,
the examples of these personalities I outlined should not draw that success that we all must follow. The
idea is for the human person of the world today to find his own place and avenue for his success – not
according to other’s whims of strategy but with his own individual giftedness. In a way, Taleb reminds
him to find his black swans of success in his world.

3. Who, to you, is the “Black Swan” in philosophy? Why?

A Black Swan philosopher? I am drawn to one philosopher in the Pre-Socratic World – Democritus.
Why? Democritus is recognized by many as the first proponent of the idea of “atom” – substance made
up of tiny indestructible, invisible particles called “atomos.” His idea has flourished on until today. In a
time when the microscope was millennial away from discovery, this philosopher was a Black Swan in his
understanding of the natural world. During his time, who can come up with such idea on the composition
of every material- living or not? But there he was and man, was he sanely but baguely right! He was
insanely ignorant, perhaps, for many. But in 1788, La Voisier picked on his idea and the rest of the “atom”
is history, so to say.

It will be hard to imagine someone today to formulate an idea as a black swan one as that of Democritus.
We live in a world where information on almost about anything can be researched upon. Well almost. But
the odds are minimal. However, genuine knowledge as genuine as the atom of Democritus may not come
as easily as his. Can I say that the theory on the evolution of man as we know about may all be false? Can
I say that man perhaps came from a being called “Spirikitique?” Such being is a spirit with highly
advanced technological components? Why? It is because of the vagueness still of how man evolved from
primates. Why have all the homo sapiens’ relations in the homonoidea family retained their beingness as
apes? Why are gorillas still gorillas? Why are chimpanzees still chimpanzees? Why are monkeys still
monkeys? Why are orangutans still orangutans? Why is man man? Are extra terrestrial theorists insane to
think that man may have been a pedigree between an ape-like creature and an interstellar being that came
our planet just like the “oumuamua” phenomenon?

Democritus, during his time introduced an idea as true as falsity itself. He died on it. All the Greek thinkers
died on it. However, in time, he was right all along. May be the “Spirikitique” could be right in time, much
like Democritus; “atoms.” Just maybe – a black swan not yet discovered that is part of the ignorance of
reality of many a theorists today.