“Does macroeconomic news relating to different aspects of the economy have an impact

on stock returns?” Words: 2600

 Table of Contents

1 Literature Review ...................................................................................................................................3

1.1 Basic Theory ..................................................................................................................................3

1.2 Impact of money supply surprises ..................................................................................................4

1.3 Impact of inflation surprises ..........................................................................................................5

1.4 The effect of discount rate alterations ............................................................................................6

1.5 Impact of foreign exchange rate .....................................................................................................7

1.6 Different tests for examination .......................................................................................................7

1.7 Channels to collect data .................................................................................................................8

2 Recent research.......................................................................................................................................8

3 Hypotheses ...........................................................................................................................................12

4 Model and Data ....................................................................................................................................13

5 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................15

References.....................................................................................................................................................17
1 Literature Review

1.1 Basic Theory

The report basically consists about the fact that what will be the effect of the macroeconomic
news can be observed on the sock returns. There are different sectors under macroeconomic
news out of which five main variables have been selected to analyse the impact. The five
variables are consumer price index (CPI), unemployment rate, durable goods, gross domestic
product (GDP) and retail sales (Cakan, 2010). There are past researches also which have
covered this impact as the basic understanding is that the relationship of these variables with
the stock return is positive. This report covers the two aspects of basic theories which have
been catered in the past researches regarding the macroeconomic news effect. The first type of
theory is arbitrage pricing theory (APT) which is proposed by Ross (1976) and the second type
is discounted cash flow (DCF). These theories cover the main areas which are necessary to
define the impact of the macroeconomic news on the stock returns.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is used to identify the effect which is created on the stock
return with the good or bad macroeconomic news. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
is also usually attached to it. The basic idea of the CAPM association is that it defines only
single independent variable which is related to the capital market for the identification of the
effect accompanied with the risk premium. There are also some assumptions which are related
to the CAPM and APT. These assumptions are listed below.

• The expectations should be homogeneous.

• The markets which are used for trading the stocks should be perfectly competitive.
• No friction is observed in the capital markets.

It has been observed by the Ross (1976) that the rate of return is affected by the various factors
as they all have a combined effect on it. The list of particular economic factors which can have
the impact on the stock yield was also provided. It mainly involved the unexpected change in
risk premiums; the difference between anticipated industrial production and actual industrial
production; unexpected inflation, as well as the variation in interest rates in the term structure.
After the identification of the factors, the method to calculate the impact of each factor on the
stock return is also defined which is known as one law price. The method is widely accepted
because as discussed above, the APT applies various methods using CAPM which needs
different factors for the reliable calculation (Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002).

It should also be noted that the two equivalent assets should have similar price otherwise, it
will create problems at the time of calculation as the results will not be much reliable as they
have to be. Arbitrage pricing theory model also depicts the idea that the macroeconomic news
is considered as a significant factor and can be written in a linear function when the returns are
expected from the financial asset (Aray, 2010). Macroeconomic surprises should also be
considered while deriving the results from the model as they also impact the values which have
been input for the computations. The macroeconomic surprises basically consist of inflation,
GNP, investor confidence and movement in the yield curve. They are considered so that the
results which are calculated from the model does not lack in efficiency. It should also be noted
that the future market prices should be replaced with the macroeconomic factors as they are
likely to have impact on the returns from the stock in the capital market (Cakan, 2010).

For the purpose of gathering the data, it should be noted that the indices which have been used
should be authentic. The authentic indices consist of S&P 500 or NYSE Composite. It is
considerable as the reliability of the end results depends on the reliability of the sample data.
If the data which is being used for the computations is not efficient in the figures, the end results
will never be positive. The performance of the stock is somewhat dependent on the predictable
estimates also. These estimations are likely to be based on the unpredictable variables which
are known by the people who are associated with the trading markets (Chen, Roll and Ross,
1986). The unpredictable factors are basically related to the economic conditions from which
the country is going through at the time. The main point which should be noted here is that the
securities themselves do not take impact of the economic conditions but the risk which is
involved with them may have a certain impact of these conditions.

1.2 Impact of money supply surprises

It should be considered that the money supply has a positive impact on the prices of the stock.
It means that if the money supply is greater that the impact can be observed on the interest rates
which will decrease the prices of the stock. There are generally two aspects of the money supply
surprises. The first impact will be observed as a result of the policy anticipation (Pearce and
Roley, 1985). It means that the increase in money supply will increase the interest rates as the
policies which will be made by the central bank tighten due to the increased in money supply.
Second impact can be observed from the inflation anticipation. It means that the unpredictable
increase in the money supply can be residual of the increased inflation which will put a reverse
impact on the prices of the stock (Roley and Troll, 1983).

It should also be noted that the increased prices or increased inflation will reduce the stock
returns also as the companies will start providing low dividends. Pearce and Roley (1985)
determined that the stock prices are affected by the monetary policy of the country as the
inflation is described in it. The stock prices take an impact of the actual inflation rather than
the impact of the results which have been computed after the difference of anticipated and
actual inflation. The studies in the previous researches also identifies that except money supply,
the results which are derived from the other three factors does not much correlation with the
stock returns. It means that the regression coefficient is low for the remaining three variables
(Evans, 2011).

1.3 Impact of inflation surprises

It has already been discussed in the above section that the prices of the stock will be affected
by the increased inflation which is resulted from the monetary policies made by the central
bank of the country. The investors have the anticipation for the higher inflation if the news
regarding the shock is positive (Apergis and Katrakilidis, 1998). If the inflation is high then the
impact on the stock returns will be negative as the yield will have low value in the market as
compare to the value before shock. If the shock which is resulting from the inflation is high or
strong, the monetary policies which are designed by the banks are tight also so that the inflation
can be controlled. The tight policies mean that the interest rate and terms will be hard for the
investors and will not show much flexibility (Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002).

As a result of tight policies, the cash flow will be reduced which have a negative impact in the
overall market. The effect of the rise in inflation prices can be observed in from the index of
CPI as it defines the ability of general customers to spend the money in the economy (León
and Sebestyén, 2012). However, it has also been observed by some researchers that there is no
impact on the stock returns as a result of unanticipated inflation. For example, Roley and Troll
(1983) identified that there is no significant relationship present between the unanticipated
inflation and United States Treasury Yields. It means that it is not necessary that the
unanticipated inflation will show its impact on the money supply every time it occurs.

1.4 The effect of discount rate alterations

The changes in the discount rate can be observed as a result of the changes in the policies which
are designed by the central bank or government. The decline can be observed in the prices of
stock if the discount rate increases and the increase are observed in case of decline in the
discount rates (Cakan, 2010). It means that there is a negative relationship present between the
discount rate and the stock prices which ultimately results in the inverse relationship of stock
return and discount rate. It is because the discount rate is to identify the value of stock in the
future as the value of currency decline with the period of time. If the discount rate is high, the
prices will more declined with the passage of time which means that the returns will be
decreased with an increased rate. However, if the discount rate is low, the process of the decline
in prices wills also decrease which will result in the increased return of the stock (León and
Sebestyén, 2012).

To determine the effect of the various factors on the stock return, following model will be used,

Stock returns= a + L *Xb1 + M * Xb2 + H * Xb3 + d + e

Where a= constant,

L=1 if the economy stays in a low cycle (M=H=0),

M=1 I if the economic state is medium (L=H=0),

H=1 if the economic state is weak (L=M=0),

X= the vector of macroeconomic surprises,

d= the trading day of the week dummy,

e= the error term.

The low, medium and high will be the three states which will be used to determine the findings.
The proportion of these states will be 25%, 50% and 25% respectively.

1.5 Impact of foreign exchange rate

The impact of foreign exchange rate can also be observed on the stock returns as the trading
has been done among various countries. It is also been used as an important factor by many
researchers to define the impact on the stock return (Evans, 2011). The USA is hub for the
International Capital Market as the trading in this market is furious. The impact of the foreign
exchange will be observed on those areas where the international exchange of the securities is
involved. It was investigated by Choi and Prasad (1995) that the macroeconomic variables have
different impact in the different capital markets. He observed that if a trade is done between
Japan and USA, the exchange rate of dollar/yen will act as an important variable. The reason
which was identified in the study was the trading relationship between Japan and USA which
is considered to be close.

It was also identified that the Japanese Yen should be considered in a model while defining the
impact of various factors on the stock returns. The foreign exchange differs with the trade
between the countries as it depends on the individual currency value with respect to the trade
country’s currency value (León and Sebestyén, 2012). Therefore, it should be noted before
applying the model that which two countries are involved in the trade so that the exchange rates
should be selected accordingly for the reliability of results. If it is not decided, the results will
lack the reliability as the exchange rate is different for every country (Aray, 2010).

1.6 Different tests for examination

There are various models which are defined by the researchers to identify the impact of the
various variables on the stock return. Flannery and Protopapadakis (2002) defined the
GAARCH model for this purpose which is considered to be the most reliable for the
identification of the stock returns and their volatility in the daily basis. The price factors which
will be included in this study are retail sales, CPI, GDP, unemployment rate and durable goods
which are considered to have an impact on the stock returns. This model is also selected by the
Apergis and Katrakilidis (1998) in order to analyse the relationship between the S&P 500 index
and consumer price index over the short-term, considering the variables of industrial
production index, exchange rate and money supply. The model also includes the error term
which makes the results reliable which are drawn by the use of the GAARCH model as the
impact of error is necessary for the efficiency of the values (Roley and Troll, 1983).

1.7 Channels to collect data

Various channels exist through which to source economic news for evaluating its impact on
stock prices. Certain researchers utilised data from MMS international (Pearce and Roley,
1985; Jain, 1988; Li and Hu, 1998; Sun and Tong, 2000). Farber and Hallock (1999)
and Boydet al.(2001) utilised the error term, which incorporates the news component during
regression. A different method was adopted by Ederington and Lee (1993), Floros and
Tsetsekos (1996) and Graham et al. (2003), who derived the market expected data from
particular authoritative publications, for example the Wall Street Journal and Business Week.

2 Recent research
Up until and including the contemporary period, Gene and John’s (2010) research could be
considered representative. They selected four macro variables (GDP, unemployment rate,
durable goods and retail sales), as well as S&P 500 returns in order to undertake the regression.
Additionally, they incorporated media announcements for an improved indicator of the impact
of macro-economic news, which was a variation on other approaches.
Economic news has also been classified by Lottand Hassett (2006), who headed a team to
define news headlines from 1991 to 2004 as ‘good, bad, mixed and neutral’. However, Gene
and John (2010) were able to gain the required data from the Lexis database.
This did not simply just correctly illustrate pertinent economic statistics; it also identified the
type of news that was pertinent upon its daily morning release. The results suggested that it is
not recommend for investors to utilise macro news for predicting stock prices. Additionally,
the researchers showed that GDP and unemployment rate may affect stock returns, in terms of
durable goods and retail sales news on the day of its release. Nevertheless, researchers have
suggested that such a classification of newspaper headlines may be overly subjective, due to
simply representing the perspectives of the major media outlets or academics, as opposed to
investors (Mullainathan and Shleifer, 2005; Groseclose and Milyo, 2005; Dyck and Zingales,
2003). Thus this can be identified as a shortcoming of analysing economic news.
Certain studies have attempted to determine the news-returns relationship utilising other
detection methods. For example, Rangel (2011) classified news initially as “normal” and
“surprise”, then followed the index of S&P 500 future jumps on the trade day. The results
indicated that there was a more frequent jump on days with news announcements.
Subsequently, this approach was extended by Lahaye et al. (2011), who as a means of obtaining
conclusions with greater accuracy relating to a different study object, observed the jump in
exchange rates, bonds and stocks following the release of macroeconomic news. They revealed
that a majority of news announcements were able to explain the high level jumps in bonds and
equity.
How the actual economy and financial markets are connected in terms of the vaster and
complex connections was assessed by Brenner et al. (2010). Estimations and responses related
to US Treasury and Corporate Bonds as well as stocks in the immediate term, as a result of
public announcements and news related to macroeconomic variables in the USA, were
investigated by the authors. The impact on asset profits in terms of cooperative alterations and
uncertainty, as well as a standard consideration of the fluctuation in asset profits as a
consequence of such news, was the major emphasis of the research.

Brenner et al. also analysed how corporate bonds, government bonds and stocks, which are
some of the most crucial aspects of the market, are affected by macroeconomic announcements
in terms of the value setting process. Several salient questions were identified by the authors
in relation to certain fundamental factors in the study. Firstly, how is the asset profit and asset
profit fluctuations initially affected by news relating to the stock and bond markets? Secondly,
are the numerous asset types affected in varying ways by the news? Thirdly, are the asset types
that are impacted by such announcements related in any manner and to what extent? Fourthly,
is the major effect of the announcements a consequence of the unanticipated or anticipated
aspects of the declaration?
Responding to these questions has been facilitated by utilising the DCC model, which is free
of the multivariate GARCH model’s more complicated aspects, yet possesses the univariate
GARCH model’s adaptability. Brenner et al. determined that the financial markets in the US
were affected considerably by macroeconomic news, with the different affects relating to the
asset types also being explained.

Stock values and the effect of macroeconomic factors in the USA was also considered by Chen
et al. (1986), with the utilisation of a multifactor model in order to assess seven different
macroeconomic factors. Stock prices were seen to be substantially affected by alterations in
the yield curved, risk premium developments and industrial production, while oil prices and
the consumption market index were found to have no significant correlation.

The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices was also analysed in Norway
by Gjerde and Saettem (1999). Stock price and actual economic activity were seen to be
positively correlated, as were stock and oil prices. Nevertheless, inflation and stock prices were
not seen to have a meaningful association in the research.

Utilising the Granger non-causality model, evidence from India in relation to three
macroeconomic factors’ impact on stock prices was investigated for relationships by
Bhattacharya et al. (2001). Trade equilibrium, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate
were the identified macroeconomic factors, with the research finding that stock prices were not
impacted by them.

The Granger causality model was also utilised in order to determine the association between
exchange rates and stock prices across six Asian states (Doong et al., 2005). It was determined
that apart from in a single country, exchange rates and stock prices expressed a meaningful
negative correlation.

China, the USA and Malaysia were the focus of research into GDP, interest rate, exchange rate,
unanticipated inflation rate, anticipated inflation rate and stock price’s association and
interaction (Geetha et al., 2011). The Vector Error Correction (VEC) model was utilised in
order to assess the more immediate-term association between the factors, whereas the longer-
term association was measured via co integration analysis of the various possible co integrating
vectors. In all of the three countries considered, the factors were seen to be associated with
stock prices in the form of a co integration association over the long-term. However, through
applying VEC, it was determined that in the USA and Malaysia, GDP, exchange rate, interest
rate, anticipated inflation and unanticipated inflation showed no short-term association with
stock prices. Stock prices and anticipated inflation rates in China were seen to be associated in
the short-term, having applied VEC analysis (Geetha et al., 2011).

The emerging BRIC states of Brazil, Russia, India and China were assessed for the association
between the macroeconomic factors of oil price and exchange rate and the stock market index
price (Gay, 2008). Applying the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model, none of the BRIC states’ stock
prices were found to be meaningfully associated with the two variables. Consequently, it was
suggested that a minor type of market efficiency was present in the BRIC states (Gay, 2008).

Ratanapakorna and Sharmab (2007) investigated the long and short-term relationships between
S&P 500 index and an array of economic variables, throughout the period from 1975 to 1999.
The results indicated a negative correlation between long-term interest rates and stock returns;
however stock prices were seen to be positively correlated to money supply, inflation rate,
exchange rate and other selected variables. According to the Granger causality model, almost
all macroeconomic variables affected stock returns over a long period; however, they did not
have an impact over the short-term. Moreover, evidence was supported by VDC (Vanguard
Consumer Staples Vipers), suggesting that stock prices could be regarded as exogenous
compared with other economic variables, due to the fact that almost 87% of the variance could
be explained by its stock, albeit 24 months later.

The UK and Germany were the focus of an investigation in to the impact on stock prices of
various macroeconomic factors and their short and long-term aspects and association (Mahedi,
2012). Mahedi (2012) assessed the macroeconomic variables and stock price interrelations via
the Johansen co-integration model, in order to determine the co-integrating associations.
Following this, every separate relationship was analysed and determined in relation to
immediate-term and long-term causal associations, utilising an error-correction model.
Industrial output’s impact on stock prices, cash flow on stock prices, as well as stock prices on
inflation were the short-term causality relationships determined to be present in Germany,
while exchange rate impact on stock returns, as well as inflation on stock price were found to
be the long-term causality associations. Stock price impact on industrial output was the sole
association that was found to have both a short-term and long-term presence. Stock price
impact on industrial output, exchange rate on stock price, stock price on exchange rate, stock
price on cash flow as well as stock price on T-bill were assessed as having short-term causality
in the UK. Inflation’s impact on stock returns was deemed to have a long-term causal
relationship. Industrial output’s impact on stock prices, cash flow on stock price and stock price
on inflation were found to have a causal association in the immediate term and over the long-
term. Consequently, macroeconomic variables’ impacts on the financial markets in the UK and
Germany were seen to be of both an immediate-term and long-term contributory nature.

Stock market capitalisation and foreign exchange reserve’s interrelatedness in India was
investigated by Sarbapriya (2012), utilising a Granger causality model and a simple linear
regression model. It was determined that stock market capitalisation was affected in a beneficial
manner by foreign exchange reserves, with foreign exchange reserve’s impact on stock market
capitalisation being a one-way affect in terms of causality.

Nevertheless, how equity profit is impacted upon by macroeconomic variables and the related
experimental evidence has been questioned (Chan et al, 1998, p.175). A detrimental impact is
ultimately seen by the majority of macroeconomic variables. It is difficult to understand the
reasons for this, because the assessment of these variables is akin to trying to determine return
co variation on the basis of random statistics.

3 Hypotheses
This paper is mainly focus on the below hypotheses:

(1) The impact for stock return depends on the kinds of macro news release (Funke and
Matsuda, 2006). This hypothesis is presented in accordance with the basic theory
mentioned. To be more specific, the economic news could convey the related information,
which directly or indirectly affects financial market, and thus affect the stock price as well.
For instance, the released GDP news predicted the government which tightens the monetary
 policy, in particular, upward on the interest rate, it will cause the enterprises to expand their
borrowing cost and lower their cash flow in the short-run. Finally, the stock prices possibly
fall. However, the indices of the balance of current account, foreign exchange rate,
international news and other unimportant economic news will not be tested in the study.
(2) The influence of macro news on stock return is reply on the state of economy as well
(Veronesi, 1999). In general, good news could be viewed as good signal and has positive
impact on stock market during the blooming state of economy but the adverse signal during
the recession of period. Due to most of literature support dependent variable: Standard &
Poor's Composite Index (S&P 500). The Standard & Poor's 500 is a kind of stock market
index for the exchange of United States. It is the market value weighted index for the 500
stocks that have the largest trading volume

4 Model and Data

(𝑃𝑡 --𝑃𝑡−1 )/𝑃𝑡−1 = a + 𝑏1 *Δ𝑥𝑡𝑢 * 𝑙𝑡 + 𝑏2 *Δ𝑥𝑡𝑢 *𝑚𝑡 + 𝑏3 *Δ𝑥𝑡𝑢 *ℎ𝑡 + e

𝑃𝑡 = stock price of S&P 500 index on the day of release

𝑃𝑡−1 = the closing stock price of S&P 500 index on t-1 day

a = constant,𝑏1 ,𝑏2 ,𝑏3 are the coefficient,

X is a vector of macro surprises, e means error term.

Δxtu = difference between actual and expected economic data = Macro surprises

Where H = 1 if in the high economic state and 0 otherwise,

L = 1 if in the low economic state and 0 otherwise,

M = 1 if medium economic state and 0 otherwise.

The following analysis is mainly focus on the response of stock return to a series of economic
variables which include retail sales, unemployment rate, GDP (gross domestic product),
durable goods and CPI (consumer price index) in the US.

 The GDP index stands for the all services and goods produced in the United States.
  The CPI reflects the condition of inflation in domestic market.
 The Retail sales are an aggregated measure of sales of goods in retail market.
 The unemployment rate represents the total number of individuals who are not working
but are actively seeking employment.
 Durable goods order represents new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for
delivery of factory hard goods (durable goods) in the near term or future.

Almost all the news we choose is published monthly on different date respectively except the
GDP is published quarterly but monthly adjusted. For unifying the amount of observation, we
choose monthly adjusted GDP as research data. Regarding why choose these indicators, it is
primary because they are representative indicators which could reflect the condition of
economy in US. The second reason is that macro-economic news is published at
8:30(daylight saving time) or 9:30am(winter time) within the trading hours on stock market so
that the investors stock price would have immediately response to the news in intraday. The
expected and actual value of these variables could be acquired from the BUREAU OF LABOR
STATISTICS. In addition, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC summaries the daily percentage
change of S&P 500 index (Standard & Poors), so it could be as the resource of data. The sample
period of this study is during the period of Aug, 2008 and May, 2016. In some sense, this time
span nearly experience the whole business cycle of economy from recession, stationary
development and blooming in the U.S market. In the meanwhile, industrial production is
important index which is collected from FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.LOUIS for
classifying the state of economy in the model and the detailed identification would be described
as follows.

As mentioned in the hypothesis, stock return could be influenced by different state of economy,
so we choose a method which is followed by McQueen and Roley (1993) to classify the
business cycle. Firstly we choose seasonally adjusted monthly industrial production index
(2012=100) and then generate a series and estimate a trend in the log of industrial production
by regression, the result could be seen in graph 1. Comparing with the method of McQueen
and Roley (1993), we do not add and subtract a constant from the trend and set up upper and
lower bounds, rather than divided the value of LIPI into three parts and define the largest 25%
as high state, the lowest 25% as low state and remaining 50% is medium business cycle by
Excel. Therefore, we find that the economy is in low state during the period of December, 2008
and November, 2010. Moreover, the period from March, 2014 to February, 2016 could be
defined as high state and remaining time is regarded as medium state. Finally, dummy variable
should be generated in the model.

5 Discussion
It is identified that the report is basically consists of the effects if the five variables on the stock
return in the capital market of USA. The macroeconomic news which is considered to have a
main impact on the stock returns can be good or bad. If the news related to variables is good
than the stock market will experience the good returns on the stock which will ultimately boost
up the performance of the economy (McQueen and Roley, 1993). On the other hand, if bad
news is spread about the defined variables, then the impact will also be negative. The good
news is said to have an impact of the stock returns when the high trends are observed in the
data. Similarly with the bad news, the impact can be observed from the declining value of the
stock in the market (Aray, 2010).

It should be noted that to analyse that rather the effect is positive or negative, the identification
of the standard return is necessary. Some of the defined variables have direct impact on the
stocks, such as CPI, GDP and retail sales while unemployment rate news does not have much
impact in the returns of the stock. The sources which are used for the extraction of data are
various (Aray, 2010). Most of them are USA authenticated sources which includes the S&P
500 index also. It is used so that the values of the data will be reliable as it is helpful to create
some reliable results with the efficient value data. The news which is extracted in the data is
basically related to identify the impact of the macroeconomic news on the stock returns (De
Goeij and Marquering, 2004). The industry coverage is also necessary in the news so that it is
easier to compare the data from the global industry perspectives. However, it is difficult to
retrieve the data from various resources; therefore, proper concentration should be given to the
collection process (Cakan, 2010).
The news is scattered in many sectors of business; therefore, it is necessary to stick to the goals
which are designed to achieve the results defined in this report. The sample period which is
selected for the gather of the news is 8 years which starts from 2008. It should also be noted
that the business news in USA is published at 8:30 a.m. of the daylight saving time and 9:30
a.m. of winter time so that the response on the stock market can be observed immediately as it
is the peak time for the trading (Hess and Bestelmeyer, 2012). The indexing is done by
analysing the news data by defining the proportion for the time period which is given to be 8
years from 2008 to 2016. The data is combined in such a way so that it will be easier to calculate
the results which are necessary for the data analysis section of this report (Evans, 2011).

The identification of the impact of the news is already defined that if the news is good than the
returns will be positive and if the news is bad than the results will be negative for the stock
returns. The news is strictly related to the five variables which are defined at the start of the
report. The historical data is also carefully handled so that it will become easier to interpret the
final results of the computations. The reliability of the values of data will be helpful in the
identification of the reliable data (Fiordelisi, Galloppo and Ricci, 2014). The results are defined
on the basis of the average of the original data for each variable separately so that it will be
easier to calculate the final computations of the data. It is also identified that the relationship
of the variables which have a strong impact in the returns are strong and which are not much
related to the stock returns, show weak relationships (León and Sebestyén, 2012).
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