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Citation: Sarker M.M. et al., Identifying the Critical Issues of Stock Market: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). IJAR-BAE
1(3): p. 48 – 55.
Copyright: @2012 Sarker M.M. et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Common Attribution 3.0 License.
1.0 Introduction
Bangladesh is a developing country based on market economy. In 2011, the estimated per capita income
was $700. International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2010 ranked Bangladesh as 43rd largest economy in the
world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The estimated GDP growth rate in 2011 was 6.3%.
Bangladesh has two stock markets: Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE)
which are growing in nature. The market capitalization of DSE crossed $10 billion in November 2007 and
$50 billion in August 2010. It contributed the country’s economy having one of the best performing stock
markets in the world during the recent global recession.
A full length opinion paper does not have any major contribution to the academic world. However, it is still considered for publication
since it brings some insights of the paper may still be valuable to the readers, policy makers and academic world.
The stock market of Bangladesh was bullish before 2010. But in 2010, the market become bearish as
there was a market crash. This situation turned millions of investors as bankrupt. The investors blamed
the government for this crash as they believed that the crash was caused artificially to benefit some
group of investors at the expense of some big players of the market. They lost their confidence on the
fairness of the market. As a result, the market continued to fall. Since 2007, Bangladesh stock market has
experienced continuous growth. There is gap between demand and supply of shares in the market. It
results in instability of the market. DSE, which is a non-profit sharing company, was originated in 1954.
Its trading activities had been suspended in 1971 because of the government’s economic policy. During
1986-1987 and 1990-92, there was a major growth in the trading. The trading in DSE has been increasing
in recent years.
At present there are over 750 companies listed with DSE. Another participant in Bangladesh stock
market is Chittagong Stock Exchange CSE. It was established in February 1995 as a public company.
There are different types of instruments in Bangladesh share market such as, government securities
(treasury bills and savings certificates). The savings certificates are consists of 8-year Defense Saving
Certificates, 7-year Bonus Certificates, 5-year Bangladesh Saving Certificates, Wage Earners Bonds, and
National Investment Bond.
The government also issues debenture of State Owned Corporations. Convertible debentures and mutual
funds are also traded at the exchange. There are also private company’s ordinary shares and debentures
in the market. In these stock markets, there are individual investors and institutional investors. Since
2011, Bangladesh’s benchmarked stock index dropped 55% and it continues to fall.
3.0 Methodology
Share market presumes to be the bumpy highway among the investors. From the FY2010, Bangladeshi
share market had been experienced through stepper decline of DGEN Index. The condition right now is
comparatively stable but the index declined almost 40% from what it stood at the beginning of 2011. To
find out the critical issues of this sudden drama, we have collected secondary information from various
sources. We have emphasized on quantitative and qualitative data to analyze the prevail crisis in
Bangladesh stock market. All the quantitative data are extracted from Dhaka Stock Exchange website and
qualitative data are collected from published research journals, newspapers, websites etc. This study is
basically exploratory in nature based on qualitative analysis. We have given emphasis on few expert
opinions to ensure the reliability of our study.
The formation of US stock market was started over 200 years ago. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was
started from a meeting of twenty four large merchants. New kind of investment born as the investors
realized that money can be made by reselling the stocks. This realization gave the birth of secondary
market. After this other markets like American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and NASDAQ were created. The
government of United States decided to introduce more regulations for the market as the number of
market participants were growing. The government wanted to protect the investors of the market. In
1934, Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) was formed to regulate US stock market. The SEC not
only regulate the American stock market trading but also watch the daily trading of the market to protect
the interest of the investors.
With the knowledge of US stock market, Dhaka stock exchange was incorporated as East Pakistan Stock
Exchange Association ltd in 1954. It started trading in 1956. In 1964, it was renamed as Decca Stock
Exchange Ltd. During the period of 1971-1975 the trading was stopped. After this period, trading
restarted in Bangladesh. In 1986, DSE was formed. During the period of 1986-87 and 1990-92 the trading
was growing in DSE. In 1992, the market was held open for foreign investors. In 1995, the SEC approved
for the second stock exchange of Bangladesh named as Chittagong stock exchange (CSE). Both DSE and
CSE have automated trading systems. In 2010, the number of listing companies in DSE was 750 and
market capitalization was $50.28 billion dollars. In order to increase the efficiency of the market, Central
Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL) was incorporated in 2000. It operates and maintains the Central
Depository System (CDS).Until May, 2012 the number of CDBL enlisted companies (ISIN) is 288 and
there are 411 Depository Participants (DP) under the system. CDBL not only provides services to the
capital market of Bangladesh but also manage the Settlement of over the Counter (OTC) transaction of
Treasury Bills and Government Bonds issued by the central bank. Under the CDS, there is no need for
physical movement of certificate to change ownership. It provides a platform for the secondary trading of
Treasury Bills and other Government Bonds. These bills and bonds are issued by the Bangladesh Bank.
In December 2010, DSE index had crossed 8500 points. The market had called bullish during this period.
After this period, the market became bearish. The exchange lost 1800 point between, December 2010
and January 2011. In January 2011, the General Price Index (DGEN) fall 660 points. During the period of
January 2010 to December 2010, the DGEN increased by 80 percent. In the history of DSE, there were
two market crashes. In 1996, the market was crashed because of the speculative bubble. In 2011, it was
asset bubble. In 2011, the market was overvalued. With the crash millions of investors lost their money
within a second. After the crash, the stock market of Bangladesh earned the blame of being the worst
stock market in the world.
This scenario began during FY 10 without any major correction, finally burst on December 19. FY10
while DGEN recorded the steepest till date single day fall of 552 points or 6.7% to 7654 since FY09. The
negative slope of the industry continued till January 10, 2011. That set new records and breaks. The
following statistics show us how DSE has crashed during the FY 2011:
7.0 Analysis
From the above statistics, it is found that stock market lost in every aspect. Daily average turnover of DSE
has dropped by 60% from 2010 to 2011. P/E ration has also decreased in every sector of the industry. As
a whole, DSE has dropped at the floor. We have found the active factors for this sudden crisis in DSE.
There is a huge gap between demand and supply of shares. Currently the number of BO accounts is about
more than 3 millions whereas the supply of share is not sufficient. As a result, investors purchased the
share by giving unbelievably high price. Consequently, DGEN Index rose in pick point at 8918.51 on
December 05, 2010, which is robust bubble compare to the market size. On the other hand, most of the
investors have little knowledge about the share market. They actually used to purchase and sale their
shares based on rumor. It is observed in many cases that, investors did purchase the share by giving
about 500-700 percent high price than the face value and expected to earn profit in that situation. Even
they didn’t consider the P/E ration or other indicators to invest in that particular company. Since, share
market is the knowledge based game not the place of gambling, these investors fall in big trouble.
There is a negative image of the share market to the investors. The Government is not doing much in the
market to bring them back in the market. It is suggested; big companies should come to the market for
financing. But the problem is that the companies are not encouraged to come to the market as it has
many problems. The market is not efficient. There is lack of efficient and skilled people in the market. The
history of the market is not so good. It has been observed that some of the companies share prices are
increased artificially. It affected the operations of the market. The settlement of some of the companies
takes long time which de-motivates the investors to make further investment. Another problem of the
market is that the companies which have shares in the market are not providing full financial information
to the investors. There is lack of transparency regarding the financial data to the investors. So the
investors are losing their confidence on the market. The regulatory body fails to protect the investors of
Bangladesh share market.
In order to stabilize the market SEC took several initiatives like, margin loan ratio increase and allowing
no marginable shares. But index continued to fall with paltry turnover of BDT 4894 million. By
formatting open end mutual fund of BDT 50 billion sponsored by the state ownership institution, tried to
stabilize the market but this initiative does not last long. As the govt. position was strict against money
whitening, tax on capital gains, TIN certificates against BO accounts are resulting the DGEN fall.
As SEC got reformed and banks had trimmed down the single borrower exposure, some affirmative
positive impacts have been laid. Budget amendment regarding undisclosed money creates positive
changes in the stock market in June 2011. But during July- September depression strikes again, as SEC
step out to take legal action against the suspected investors, weakening financial system, liquidity
shortage. Investors protested against it and it results on the relaxation of adjustment timeline for single
borrower exposure of merchant bankers.
Several stakeholders like Bangladesh association of publicly listed companies (BAPLC) have taken action
to mitigate the margin loan crisis. Some positive initiatives like income tax rebate on stock market
investment, lower taxes on mutual funds and halving of taxes on brokerage commission have been taken
followed by it. Market Stabilization Fund has been formed by the Bangladesh Association of Bankers to
mitigate the crisis. As no positive outcome happened investment was low. Negative reports of World
Bank and IMF had impact on it also.
While the steep escalation of DGEN could not justified by underlying fundamentals, restrictive monetary
policy to curb growing inflation and to seize depreciation of local currency was also instrumental behind
sharp fall of DGEN from December, 2010. Eroding confidence due to lack of consistency in the policy
measures and bleak economic outlook accentuated the fall.
Regional Markets condition was not in good shape during the year 2010-2011. In this South Asian region,
the market index was also downward. Among the countries, DGEN Index (Bangladesh) fall the highest
point. Since the regional market was downward, Bangladeshi big investors were careful to go with the
situation.
In November 2011, DGEN decreases from 5000 to 4877, creating panic in the investors, as they tried to
leave the market before it is too late. The chaos followed by the prime minister intervention and finally
SEC declared multilevel incentive packages in November 23rd 2011. This incentive package includes,
30%stakes hold by the sponsors, allowing banks in capital market investments, and opening up sell side
research and investment advisory service. As investors had mixed feelings on the implementation of the
initiative, all shares started to trade in uniform value of BDT 10 on December 2011. On December 29, the
last trading session of the year 2011, DGEN ended at 5257.6.
Stock market of Bangladesh has got the adjective “the worst stock market in the world”. It had its
impressive growth since 2007. DGEN Index climbed at point 8918.51 on December 05, 2010 which was
overvalued in all aspect. Then the market crashed at point 4877 in November 2011. Since Bangladesh is
heading toward the developing nation, capital market can be the engine of growth for its economy if
market becomes structured and efficient. Around the world well reputed stock markets like - New York
Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Australian
Securities Exchange, Dubai Stock Exchange and so on, are regulated and running efficiently that provides
significant contribution to their individual economy. Since, stock market is knowledge based game rather
than place of gambling; there must be rational win-lose situation always. But Bangladeshi stock market
experienced through inefficient and irrational fluctuation of DGEN Index in the year 1996 and 2011
which resembles the place of gambling.
From our study, we have found that, there are problems like – Big Gap between the Demand and Supply
of stock, extraordinary over pricing of stock, market manipulation, lack of knowledge about the stock
market mechanism among the general investors, price distortion, inefficient regulations, political unrest,
etc caused the steepest downward fall of DGEN Index in the FY2011. As a result, about millions of
investors lost their capital which turned them empty within few months. Security and Exchange
Commission (SEC) of Bangladesh and government should take the short term and long term initiatives to
stabilize the market. They should encourage more public limited companies to offer more share to meet
the current demands. Income tax rebate, Injection of Market Stabilization Fund, Mandatory holding
certain percentage of share among the board of directors, short term incentives packages should be
introduced to get back the confidence among the existing investors. Regulatory bodies of Bangladesh
stock market must educate the current and potential investors about the market mechanism and provide
them the accurate information so that investors trade their shares carefully. Unless, there are any
corrective measures, Bangladeshi stock market will be facing this irrational downward of DGEN Index
again in the near future.
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