CHAPTER-4

DATA ANALYSIS

&

INTERPRETATION

1
DATA ANALYSIS

The Objective of this analysis is to evaluate the profit/loss position futures and options. This

analysis is based on sample data taken of BHEL&ONGC.Scrip. This analysis considered the

1st APRIL 2019 TO 30th APRIL 2019 contract of BHEL&ONGC. The lot Size of BHEL is

1000&ONGC is 1000. The time period in which this analysis done is from 01-04-2019 to 30-

04-2019.

The following table explains the DATE and FUTURE PRICES.

 The first column explains TRADING DATE.

 Second column explains the FUTURE MARKET PRICE in cash segment on that
date.

2
TABLE 4.1

BHEL FUTURE PRICE OF 1ST APR 2019 TO 30TH APR 2019

FUTURE

1-Apr-19 182.1

6-Apr-19 184.2

7-Apr-19 181.75

8-Apr-19 197.75

9-Apr-19 197.85

10-Apr-19 182.75

14-Apr-19 198

16-Apr-19 198.25

19-Apr-19 198.45

21-Apr-19 180.25

23-Apr-19 199

24-Apr-19 182.9

25-Apr-19 183.05

26-Apr-19 186.3

28-Apr-19 191.4

29-Apr-19 189

3
GRAPH 4.1

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT OF FUTURE PRICES

FUTURE
200
195
190
185
180 FUTURE
175
170

29-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
03-Apr-19
05-Apr-19
07-Apr-19
09-Apr-19
11-Apr-19
13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19

INTERPRETATION:-

In the above graph the future price curve shows a continuously fluctuating trend and at the

end of the month future prices closed at the price of Rs.192.19 with a Profit of Rs.10.05

(Rs.192.19-182.10).to the buyer(long)and the seller(short)will incurr a loss of Rs.10.05.

4
 FUTURE MARKET:-

BUYER SELLER

01/04/2019(BUYING) 182.1 182.1

30/04/2019(CLOSING PERIOD) 192.19 192.19

PROFIT 10.05 LOSS 10.05

PROFIT 10.05*1000= 10500/- LOSS 10.05*1000=10500/-

Because buyers Future Price increases so profits also increase. Seller future Price increases

so he will get loss. In case seller future price will decrease he will get profit.

The closing price of BHEL at the end of the contract period is192.19 and this is considered as

settlement price.

5
TABLE 4.2

BHEL SPOT PRICE 1ST APR 2019 TO 30TH APR 2019

DATE SPOT

1-Apr-19 182.5

6-Apr-19 185.1

7-Apr-19 182.8

8-Apr-19 198.19

9-Apr-19 197.8

10-Apr-19 182.5

14-Apr-19 198.75

16-Apr-19 197.9

19-Apr-19 198.25

21-Apr-19 199.6

23-Apr-19 198.35

24-Apr-19 182.3

25-Apr-19 183.35

26-Apr-19 185.85

28-Apr-19 191.35

29-Apr-19 188.7

6
 GRAPH4.2

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT OF SPOT PRICES

SPOT
200
195
190
185
180 SPOT
175
170
03-Apr-19
01-Apr-19

05-Apr-19
07-Apr-19
09-Apr-19
11-Apr-19
13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19
29-Apr-19

INTERPRETATION:-

In the above graph the spot price curve shows an increasing trend and at the end of the month

Spot prices settled at the price of Rs.192.55 and buyer made a profit of Rs.10.05.

SPOT MARKET:-

BUYER SELLER

01/04/2019(BUYING) 182.5 182.5

30/04/2019(CLOSING PERIOD) 192.55 192.55

LOSS 10.05 PROFIT 10.05

LOSS 10.5*1000= 10500/- PROFIT 10.5*1000=10500/-

7
4.3The following table explains the DATE and MARKET PRICES.

The first column explains TRADING DATE. Second column explains the FUTURE PRICE

in cash segment on that date. Third column explains the MARKET PRICES BHEL FUTURE

PRICE & SPOT PRICE COMPARISION

TABLE 4.3

DATE FUTURE SPOT

1-Apr-19 182.1 182.5

3-Apr-19 184.2 185.1

5-Apr-19 181.75 182.8

7-Apr-19 197.75 198.19

9-Apr-19 197.85 197.8

11-Apr-19 182.75 182.5

13-Apr-19 198 198.75

15-Apr-19 198.25 197.9

19-Apr-19 198.45 198.25

19-Apr-19 180.25 199.6

21-Apr-19 199 198.35

23-Apr-19 182.9 182.3

25-Apr-19 183.05 183.35

26-Apr-19 186.3 185.85

28-Apr-19 191.4 191.35

29-Apr-19 189 188.7

8
GRAPH 4.3

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT OF FUTURE PRICE & SPOT PRICES

400
350
300
250
200
SPOT
150
FUTURE
100
50
0
05-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
03-Apr-19

07-Apr-19
09-Apr-19
11-Apr-19
13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19
29-Apr-19

INTERPRETATION:-

The above graph shows the price movements of futures and spot prices. The future prices

moves along with the spot prices as per the trend i.e, the opening prices of futures is Rs.182.1

and the spot price is Rs.182.5 and at the end of the month last Thursday the future price

closed or settled at the price or Rs.192.19 and the spot price settled at the price of Rs. 192.55

with a profit of Rs.10.05 and Rs.10.05 respectively on 30th APR 2019.

9
BHEL CALL PRICE FOR 180,185,190,195,200.

TABLE 4.4

PRICE PREMIUM

DATE FUTURE SPOT 180 185 190 195 200

1-Apr-19 182.1 182.5 8.1 5.75 4 2.8 1.95

6-Apr-19 184.2 185.1 8.9 6.25 4.3 3 2

7-Apr-19 181.75 182.8 7.25 5.19 3.5 2.1 1.65

8-Apr-19 197.75 198.19 5.55 3.8 2.5 1.65 1.19

9-Apr-19 197.85 197.8 5.5 3.45 2.45 1.55 1.1

10-Apr-19 182.75 182.5 7.65 5.2 3.55 2.19 1.4

14-Apr-19 198 198.75 4.8 3.05 1.95 1.2 0.8

16-Apr-19 198.25 197.9 4.6 2.9 1.8 1.05 0.75

19-Apr-19 198.45 198.25 4.3 2.55 1.55 0.9 0.6

21-Apr-19 180.25 199.6 4.75 2.8 1.65 0.95 0.6

23-Apr-19 199 198.35 3.9 2.25 1.25 0.7 0.4

24-Apr-19 182.9 182.3 5.7 3.2 1.75 0.85 0.55

25-Apr-19 183.05 183.35 5.35 2.85 1.45 0.65 0.45

26-Apr-19 186.3 185.85 7.25 3.9 1.75 0.8 0.4

28-Apr-19 191.4 191.35 11.35 6.5 3.2 1.2 0.45

29-Apr-19 189 188.7 9.2 4.3 1.4 0.35 0.19

30-Apr-19 192.19 192.55 11 5.75 1.9 0.19 0.05

10
GRAPH 4.4

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT AT PREMIUM OF 180,185,190,195,200.

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
PREMIUM
200
100
0 PRICE

BUYERS PAY OFF:

He bought 1(1000) lot of BHEL at the strike price of 180 with a premium of Rs: 8.1 per

share.Settlement price is 192.55.

Strike price 180

Add: Premium 8.1

BEP 188.10

Less Spot price 192.55

PROFITS 4.45/-

PROFITS4.45*1000= 4450/-

Because it is positive so buyer gets profit. In case decrease in market price the buyer of the

call will lose the premium only i.e. 4.45*1000= 4450/-

11
 SELLERS PAY OFF:

TABLE 4.5

PRICE PREMIUM

DATE FUTURE SPOT 195 190 165 160 195

1-Apr-19 182.1 182.5 3.7 2.5 1.45 0.85 0.35

6-Apr-19 184.2 185.1 3 1.9 1.1 0.85 0.35

7-Apr-19 181.75 182.8 4 2.25 0.85 0.75 0.35

8-Apr-19 197.75 198.19 5.2 3.35 2.2 1.25 0.35

9-Apr-19 197.85 197.8 5.19 3.4 1.85 1.25 0.35

10-Apr-19 182.75 182.5 3.1 1.95 1.19 0.7 0.35

14-Apr-19 198 198.75 4.3 2.65 1.65 1.05 0.35

16-Apr-19 198.25 197.9 4 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.35

19-Apr-19 198.45 198.25 3.4 1.95 1.05 0.75 0.35

21-Apr-19 180.25 199.6 2.5 1.4 0.75 0.55 0.35

23-Apr-19 199 198.35 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.65 0.35

24-Apr-19 182.9 182.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.25 0.35

25-Apr-19 183.05 183.35 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.25 0.35

26-Apr-19 186.3 185.85 0.55 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.35

28-Apr-19 191.4 191.35 0.2 0.19 0.1 0.05 0.35

29-Apr-19 189 188.7 0.19 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.35

30-Apr-19 192.19 192.55 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.35

As it is out f the money for seller: hence his loss s.

LOSS 4.45*1000=4450/-

Because it is negative, and the price in market continuously up so the seller will get loss.

12
BHEL PUT PRICE FOR 195,190,165,160,195.

GRAPH 4.5
GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT AT PREMIUM OF 195,190,165,160,195.

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 PREMIUM

29-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
06-Apr-19
07-Apr-19
08-Apr-19
09-Apr-19
10-Apr-19
14-Apr-19
16-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
24-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
26-Apr-19
28-Apr-19

30-Apr-19
DATE

BUYERS PAY OFF:-

He bought 1(1000) lot of BHEL at the strike price of 195 with a premium of Rs:3.7per share.

Settlement price is 192.55

Strike price 195

LESS: Premium 3.7

BEP 191.30

Less Spot price 192.55

LOSS -21.25

LOSS 3.7*1000= 3700/-

13
 As it is in the money for seller: hence his loss is.

PROFIT:3.7*1000= 3700/-

Because it is negative, and the price in market continuously down so the seller will get loss.

4.6 The following table explains the DATE and MARKET PRICES.

The first column explains TRADING DATE.Second column explains the FUTURE PRICE
in cash segment on that date.Third column explains the MARKET PRICES in cash segment
on that date.

14
ONGC FUTURE PRICE OF 1ST APR 2019 TO 30TH APR 2019
TABLE 4.6
DATE FUTURE
1-Apr-19 309.95
6-Apr-19 318
7-Apr-19 311.05
8-Apr-19 308.5
9-Apr-19 314.9
10-Apr-19 313.55
14-Apr-19 303.85
16-Apr-19 303.2
19-Apr-19 306.95
21-Apr-19 308.95
23-Apr-19 319.8
24-Apr-19 332.05
25-Apr-19 328.8
26-Apr-19 334.7
28-Apr-19 328.55
29-Apr-19 326.85

15
GRAPH 4.6

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT ONGC FUTURE PRICE

FUTURE
335
330
325
320
315
310
305
300 FUTURE
295
290
285

29-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
03-Apr-19
05-Apr-19
07-Apr-19
09-Apr-19
11-Apr-19
13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19

INTERPRETATION:-

In the above graph the future price curve shows an continuous fluctuations and at the end

of the month future prices is closed at the price of Rs.326.35 with a profit of Rs.16.4(309.95-

326.35).

16
 FUTURE MARKET:-

BUYER SELLER

01/04/2019(BUYING) 309.95 309.95

30/04/2019(CLOSING PERIOD) 326.35 326.35

PROFIT 16.4 LOSS 16.4

PROFIT 16.4*1000= 16400/- LOSS 16.4*1000=16400/-

Because Buyers Future Price increase so profit also increase. Seller future Price also increase

so he will get loss. Incase seller future will decrease he will get profits.

The closing price of ONGC at the end of the contract period is 326.35 and this is considered

as settlement price. The following table explains the DATE and MARKET PRICES.The first

column explains TRADING DATE. Second column explains the MARKET PRICE in cash

segment on that date.

17
ONGC SPOT PRICE FROM 1ST APR 2019 TO 30TH APR 2019

TABLE 4.7
DATE SPOT

1-Apr-19 308.85

6-Apr-19 319.2

7-Apr-19 310.55

8-Apr-19 307.65

9-Apr-19 314.3

10-Apr-19 312.85

14-Apr-19 303.8

16-Apr-19 302.9

19-Apr-19 307.25

21-Apr-19 308.8

23-Apr-19 319

24-Apr-19 331.9

25-Apr-19 328.85

26-Apr-19 334.35

28-Apr-19 328.05

29-Apr-19 326.45

18
GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT ONGC SPOT PRICE

GRAPH 4.7

SPOT
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% SPOT
20%
10%
0%
09-Apr-19
11-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
03-Apr-19
05-Apr-19
07-Apr-19

13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19
29-Apr-19
INTERPRETATION:

In the above graph the spot price curve shows an increasing trend and at the end of the month

Spot prices settled at the price of Rs.326.5 with a profit of Rs.19.6 (308.9-326.5)

SPOT MARKET:-

BUYER SELLER

01/04/2019(BUYING) 308.9 308.9

30/04/2019(CLOSING PERIOD) 326.5 326.5

profit 19.6 Loss 19.6

profit 19.6*1000=19600/- loss 19.6*1000=19600/-

4.8 The following table explains the DATE and MARKET PRICES.

The first column explains TRADING DATE. Second column explains the FUTURE PRICE

in cash segment on that date. Third column explains the SPOT PRICES in cash segment on

that date.

19
ONGC FUTURE & SPOT PRICE FROM 1ST APR 2019 TO 30TH APR 2019

TABLE 4.8
DATE FUTURE SPOT

1-Apr-19 309.95 308.85

6-Apr-19 318 319.2

7-Apr-19 311.05 310.55

8-Apr-19 308.5 307.65

9-Apr-19 314.9 314.3

10-Apr-19 313.55 312.85

14-Apr-19 303.85 303.8

16-Apr-19 303.2 302.9

19-Apr-19 306.95 307.25

21-Apr-19 308.95 308.8

23-Apr-19 319.8 319

24-Apr-19 332.05 331.9

25-Apr-19 328.8 328.85

26-Apr-19 334.7 334.35

28-Apr-19 328.55 328.05

29-Apr-19 326.85 326.45

20
GRAPH 4.8

GRAPH SHOWS COMPARISION BETWEEN FUTURE PRICE &

SPOT PRICE

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% SPOT
30% FUTURE
20%
10%
0%
09-Apr-19
01-Apr-19
03-Apr-19
05-Apr-19
07-Apr-19

11-Apr-19
13-Apr-19
15-Apr-19
17-Apr-19
19-Apr-19
21-Apr-19
23-Apr-19
25-Apr-19
27-Apr-19
29-Apr-19

INTERPRETATION:-

The above graph shows the price movements of futures and spot prices. The future prices

moves along with the spot prices in increasing trend i.e, the opening prices of futures is

Rs.309.95 and the spot price is Rs.308.9

21
ONGC CALL PRICE FOR 300,310,320,330,340

TABLE 4.9

PREMIUM

DATE FUTURE SPOT 300 310 320 330 340

1-Apr-19 309.95 308.85 14.8 9.4 5.4 3 1.65

6-Apr-19 318 319.2 20.19 12.9 7.85 4.3 2.35

7-Apr-19 311.05 310.55 14.55 8.45 5.19 2.65 1.4

8-Apr-19 308.5 307.65 12.5 7.55 4 2 1.1

9-Apr-19 314.9 314.3 19.65 11.05 6.25 3.35 1.65

10-Apr-19 313.55 312.85 19.9 10.19 5.55 2.85 1.35

14-Apr-19 303.85 303.8 10.45 5.75 3 1.55 0.8

16-Apr-19 303.2 302.9 9.45 5.05 2.55 1.19 0.75

19-Apr-19 306.95 307.25 10.9 5.8 2.85 1.35 0.7

21-Apr-19 308.95 308.8 11.8 6.19 3 1.2 0.6

23-Apr-19 319.8 319 20.05 12.95 6.8 3.3 1.45

24-Apr-19 332.05 331.9 32.2 22.5 14.45 7.85 3.7

25-Apr-19 328.8 328.85 30.1 21.95 12.55 5.85 2.25

26-Apr-19 334.7 334.35 34.05 24.75 19.55 8.05 3.19

28-Apr-19 328.55 328.05 28.4 22 9.4 3.19 0.9

29-Apr-19 326.85 326.45 22.5 13.2 7.2 1.7 0.19

30-Apr-19 326.35 326.5 22.5 19 5.9 0.19 0.05

22
GRAPH 4.9

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT AT PREMIUM 300,310,320,330,340.

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% PREMIUM

BUYERS PAY OFF:-

He bought 1(1000) lot of ONGC at the strike price of 300 with a premium of Rs:14.80 per

share.Settlement price is Rs. 326.50

Strike price 300

Add: Premium 14.80

BEP 314.80

Less Spot price 326.50

profit 11.70

Profit 11.70*1000= 11900/-

23
 Because it is positive so buyer gets profit. In case decrease in market price the buyer of the

call will get the premium only i.e.. 11.70*1000= 11900/-

SELLERS PAY OFF:-

As it is out OF the money for seller: hence his loss is.

loss 11.70*1000=11900/-

Because it is negative, and the price in market continuously down so the seller will get loss.

24
TABLE4.10

ONGC PUT PRICE FOR 320,310,300,290,280.

PRICE PREMIUM

DATE FUTURE SPOT 320 310 300 290 280

1-Apr-19 309.95 308.85 19.5 9.05 5.05 2.6 1.2

6-Apr-19 318 319.2 9.8 5.45 2.65 1.55 0.65

7-Apr-19 311.05 310.55 13.55 7.85 3.65 1.85 0.85

8-Apr-19 308.5 307.65 19.65 9 4.8 2.25 1.05

9-Apr-19 314.9 314.3 11.7 6.4 3.2 1.4 0.65

10-Apr-19 313.55 312.85 11.85 6.6 3.25 1.55 0.7

14-Apr-19 303.85 303.8 19.3 11.7 6.4 3.1 1.4

16-Apr-19 303.2 302.9 19.6 10.75 6.25 3 1.25

19-Apr-19 306.95 307.25 19.35 8.6 3.95 1.65 0.8

21-Apr-19 308.95 308.8 13.45 7.25 3.05 1.25 0.7

23-Apr-19 319.8 319 6.95 3.1 1.19 0.5 0.35

24-Apr-19 332.05 331.9 2.7 1.05 0.5 0.35 0.2

25-Apr-19 328.8 328.85 3.19 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2

26-Apr-19 334.7 334.35 1.2 0.35 0.1 0.19 0.05

28-Apr-19 328.55 328.05 1.25 0.2 0.19 0.19 0.05

29-Apr-19 326.85 326.45 0.6 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05

25
GRAPH 4.10

GRAPH SHOWS MOVEMENT OF PUT PRICE AT PREMIUM OF

320,310,300,290,280.

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
PREMIUM
20%
10%
0% PRICE

BUYERS PAY OFF:-

He bought 1(1000) lot of ONGC at the strike price of 320 with a premium of Rs:19.50 per

share.Settlement price is Rs. 326.5

Strike price 320

Less: Premium 19.50

BEP 302.5

Less Spot price 326.5

LOSS 22

26
 LOSS 24*1000=24000/-

Because it is positive so buyer gets profit. In case decrease in market

price the buyer of the call will get the premium only i.e. 24*1000=

24000/-

SELLERS PAY OFF:-

As it is out of the money for seller: hence his loss is.

LOSS24*1000=24000/-

Because it is negative, and the price in market continuously down so the seller will get loss

27
 CHAPTER-5

FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS, LIMITATIONS

&

CONCLUSIONS

28
 FINDINGS

 The future price of BHEL,ONGC is moving along with the market price.

 If the buying price of the future is less than the settlement price, than the buyer of a

future gets profit.

 If the selling price of the future is less than the settlement price, than the seller incur

losses.

 As above BHEL,ONGC given losses ,given profits

 Cost of carry model and Interest rate parity model are useful tools to find out standard
future price and also useful for comparing standard with actual future price. And it’s
also a very help full in Arbitraging.

 New concept of Exchange traded currency future trading is regulated by higher

authority and regulatory. The whole function of Exchange traded currency future is
regulated by SEBI/RBI, and they established rules and regulation so there is very safe
trading is emerged and counter party risk is minimized in currency Future trading.
And also time reduced in Clearing and Settlement process up to T+1 day’s basis.

 Larger exporter and importer has continued to deal in the OTC counter even exchange
traded currency future is available in markets because,

 There is a limit of USD 100 million on open interest applicable to trading member
who are banks. And the USD 25 million limit for other trading members so larger
exporter and importer might continue to deal in the OTC market where there is no
limit on hedges.

 In India RBI and SEBI has restricted other currency derivatives except Currency
future, at this time if any person wants to use other instrument of currency derivatives
in this case he has to use OTC.

29
 SUGGESTIONS

 The derivative market is newly started in India and it is not known by every

investor, so SEBI has to take steps to create awareness among the investors

about the derivative segment.

 In order to increase the derivatives market in India, SEBI should revise some

of their regulations like contract size, participation of FII in the derivatives

market.

 Contract size should be minimized because small investors cannot afford this

much of huge premiums.

 SEBI has to take further steps in the risk management mechanism.

 SEBI has to take measures to use effectively the derivatives segment as a tool

of hedging.

30
 CONCLUSION

 In bullish market the call option writer incurs more losses so the investor is suggested

to go for a call option to hold, where as the put option holder suffers in a bullish

market, so he is suggested to write a put option.

 In bearish market the call option holder will incur more losses so the investor is

suggested to go for a call option to write, where as the put option writer will get more

losses, so he is suggested to hold a put option.

 In the above analysis the market price of BHEL,ONGC is having high volatility, so

the call option writer enjoys more losses to holders.

31
BIBILOGRAPHY

 BOOKS :-

 Financial Market and Services (2009)

- GORDAN & NATRAJAN

 Financial Management (2011)

- PRASNNA CHANDRA

 Risk management (2009)

-DR.G.KOTRESHWAR

 NEWS PAPERS :-

 Economic times

 Times of India

 Business Line

 MAGAZINES :-

 Business Today

 Business India

 WEBSITES :-

 www.derivativesindia.com

 www.nseindia.com

 www.bseindia.com

 www.sebi.gov.in

32
33