Lecture-02

Statistical Inference
OBJECTIVE
• Set Up a Sampling Distribution, CLT, & Applications
Basic terms
 The Population vs. The Sample
We will likely never know these
(population parameters - these
are things that we want to know
The population about in the population)
Number = N

Mean = m

Standard deviation = s

Cannot afford to measure parameters of the

whole population.
 The Population vs. The Sample

The sample
Sample size = n
Sample mean = x
Sample standard
deviation = s

Cannot afford to measure

parameters of the whole population
So we draw a random sample.
What is the use of sampling?

Get information about large populations.

 Less costs
 Less field time
 More accuracy
i.e., Can do a better job of data Collection, when it’s impossible
to study the whole population.
The Sampling Issue……
• The goal of the survey is to get the same results that would be
obtained if all had answered from the entire population.

• It is important that every member of the population has an equal

chance of being chosen.
Activity……
• Get in groups of 4.
• Find the mean height of your group.
• Now find the mean height of the class.
• Is the class mean the same as your group’s mean?
Sample Mean vs. Population Mean……
• Not every sample mean will be the same as the population mean,
but if you take good samples the means will be very close.

x  sample mean

m  population mean

m x  Mean of Sample Means

Example……
• Consider the following set: {0,2,4,6,8}.
a) Make a list of all possible samples of size 2 that can
be drawn from this set.

b) Construct a sampling distribution of the sample

means for samples of size

c) Graph the histogram of the population and sampling

distribution. What do you notice?
a) {0,2,4,6,8} Sets of 2
• (0,0) (2,0) (4,0) (6,0) (8,0)
(0,2) (2,2) (4,2) (6,2) (8,2)
(0,4) (2,4) (4,4) (6,4) (8,4)
(0,6) (2,6) (4,6) (6,6) (8,6)
(0,8) (2,8) (4,8) (6,8) (8,8)
b) 1st find the means for each sample……
• (0,0) 0 (2,0) 1 (4,0) 2 (6,0) 3 (8,0) 4
(0,2) 1 (2,2) 2 (4,2) 3 (6,2) 4 (8,2) 5
(0,4) 2 (2,4) 3 (4,4) 4 (6,4) 5 (8,4) 6
(0,6) 3 (2,6) 4 (4,6) 5 (6,6) 6 (8,6) 7
(0,8) 4 (2,8) 5 (4,8) 6 (6,8) 7 (8,8) 8
Sample Space
• Notice that each of these sample is equally likely to occur.

• Therefore, the probability of each is

1/25 = 0.04.
c) The sampling distribution of the sample means (SDSM)

x P(x)
0 1/25
1 2/25
2 3/25
3 4/25
4 5/25
5 4/25
6 3/25
7 2/25
8 1/25 Notice it is NORMAL!
Example – You Try……

• Let’s say I picked out all the grades for the last quiz that were
either 57, 67, 77, 87, or 97 and put them in a pile. Find every
possible combination of quiz grades I could get if I picked 2
quizzes from this pile.

• NOTE: There will be 25 possible combinations.

Now lets find the mean for each pair
(57, 57) (67, 57) (77, 57) (87, 57) (97, 57)

(57, 67) (67, 67) (77, 67) (87, 67) (97, 67)

(57, 77) (67, 77) (77, 77) (87, 77) (97, 77)

(57, 87) (67, 87) (77, 87) (87, 87) (97, 87)

(57, 97) (67, 97) (77, 97) (87, 97) (97, 97)
There are 25 possible combinations
(57, 57) (67, 57) (77, 57) (87, 57) (97, 57)
57 62 67 72 77
(57, 67) (67, 67) (77, 67) (87, 67) (97, 67)
62 67 72 77 82
(57, 77) (67, 77) (77, 77) (87, 77) (97, 77)
67 72 77 82 87
(57, 87) (67, 87) (77, 87) (87, 87) (97, 87)
72 77 82 87 92
(57, 97) (67, 97) (77, 97) (87, 97) (97, 97)
77 82 87 92 97
Chart and Graph
x P(x)
57 1/25 = 0.04 Probability Distribution of Means
62 2/25 = 0.08
0.25
67 3/25 = 0.12
0.2

Probability
72 4/25 = 0.16 0.15
77 5/25 = 0.20 0.1

82 4/25 = 0.16 0.05

0
87 3/25 = 0.12
57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97
92 2/25 = 0.08 Quiz Pair Means
97 1/25 = 0.04
 • Sampling Distribution of Sample Means –
SDSM
The probability distribution of a statistic is
called a sampling distribution.
Sampling distribution of Sample Means
(SDSM……)
• If all possible random samples,
each of size n, are taken from
any population with mean m
and st. deviation s , then the
SDSM will:
1. Have a sampling distribution
mean equal to the population
mean.
mx  m
2. Have a sampling distribution
standard deviation equal to the
population st. dev. divided by
the square root of the sample
size.
s
sx 
n
SDSM……
• 𝐸 𝑋 =𝜇
 𝜎2
• Var(𝑋)=
𝑛
The shape of the distribution……
• If the population has a normal
distribution, then the
sampling distribution of the
sample means will also be
normal.
• If the population is NOT a
normal distribution, then we
use the Central Limit
Theorem to make the
sampling distribution
approximately normal.