MECH 350

Engineering Design I
University of Victoria
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

Lecture 9:
Project Planning

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 1

Outline:

CRITICAL PATH METHOD

DETERMINING THE CRITICAL PATH
PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE: PERT

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 2

 Project Planning within the “General” Design Process

Identify Need Problem Definition Conceptualization Preliminary Design

-Talk with Client -Problem Statement
-Project Goals -Information Gathering
-Information Gathering -Design Objectives
(quantifiable/measurable)
-Brainstorming & Planning
-Drawing/Visualization -Prelim. Specifications
-Functional Decomp. -Prelim. Analysis
-Morphologic Chart -Decision Making
-Gantt Charts & CPM

Detailed Design Prototyping Testing/Evaluation Report/Deliver

-Detailed Analysis -Prototype Fabrication -Evaluate Performance -Oral Presentation
-Simulate & Optimize -Concept Verification -Are Objectives Met? -Client Feedback
-Detail Specifications -Iterate Process Steps -Formal Design Report
-Drawings, GD&T 2 - 7 as needed

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 3

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Critical Path Method
CRITICAL PATH METHOD
Is a graphical network diagram approach to project planning
Shows logical precedence relationships
Attempts to identify major bottlenecks in a project schedule

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 4

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Critical Path Method
Elements of the CPM Diagram:

Activity: Ongoing effort on a project activity for a specific duration.

Activities are labelled with name/letter and duration.
Event: Represents a discrete state (event), or decision point, etc... and
it is assumed the event consumes ‘no time’. Events are usually not
labelled.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 5

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Critical Path Method
Table of Activities, Duration and Precedence Relations:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 6
 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Critical Path Method
GENERAL RULES for CPM diagram construction:
(1) The network diagram must start at a single “Start” event and
end at a single “Finish/End” event.
(2) Consecutive activities must be separated by events.
(3) Any pair of events cannot be connected by more than one
activity, without an intervening event.
(4) If a single activity (R) must precede several unrelated activities
(S, T, etc...), the relation is depicted as Fig. A:
(5) If several unrelated activities (S, T, etc...) must precede an
activity (R), the relation is depicted as Fig. B:
S S
R R

T T
Fig. A Fig. B

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 7

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Critical Path Method
Dummy Activities (if necessary):

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 8

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Critical Path Method
Approach to using the CPM method:
(1) Generate the table of “Activities, Duration and Precedence
Relations”. This can be done as a team, especially for establishing/
estimating Duration and Precedence of activities.
(2) Find all activities that have no ‘precedence requirement’, and
draw them using arrows emanating from “start” event. Terminate
these arrows with an “event” circle. Scratch these activities from
your table.
(3) Find all activities preceded by the activities drawn in the
previous step. Place them as appropriate on the network diagram.
Terminate them with an “event” circle, and scratch them from the
table list.
(4) Repeat step (3) and ‘iterate and backtrack’ if necessary.
(5) All activities must eventually terminate at single “End” event.
© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 9

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Critical Path Method
Constructing CPM Diagrams:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 10

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Critical Path Method
Constructing CPM Diagrams:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

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Project Planning Tools: CPM

Example:
Example 7.4.1 from Textbook (done in class)

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 12

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Determining the Critical Path
The critical path is defined as:
“The sequence of activities from project start to project end, such that
a delay in any one of those activities, will delay the completion of the
entire project”

We need to identify the ‘critical path’ for a given CPM network

diagram, and hence identify all the critical activities.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 13

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Determining the Critical Path
Determining the ‘critical path’ can be done ‘ad-hoc’ by tracing the
various paths from start to finish.

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

Hence, the critical path here is: A-B-F-G-H-K, which is 19 units in

duration.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 14

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Determining the Critical Path
For more ‘complex CPM diagrams’, there is a systematic approach to
determining the critical path.

This is done by first determining (for each activity):

Earliest Start (ES): The earliest possible time the
activity can begin.
Next, we determine the:
Project Duration: Least possible time to complete the
project.
Finally, we determine (for each activity):
Latest Start (LS): The latest possible time activity can
begin without delaying the project. Defined as:
Proj.Dur. - (longest possible reverse path to activity)
Total Float (TF): Defined as (LS - ES)
© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 15

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Determining the Critical Path
For the previous example, we have:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 16

 Project Planning Tools: CPM
Determining the Critical Path
The project duration is equal to the sum of the duration of all
activities along the critical path.

The TF for each activity in the Table, is the amount of time by which
that activity can be delayed, without causing a delay in the project
duration.

The critical path is defined as the sequence of activities in the Table,

for which TF = 0.

Any delay in an activity that is on the critical path, will cause a delay
in the project duration.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 17

Project Planning Tools: CPM

Summary
The CPM has application to very practical problems, likely to occur
during your professional careers.

Consider the results of Table 7.4. Immediately, you can see:

The project has a duration of 19 time-units.
The critical path is: A-B-F-G-H-K, therefore, you must “pay
special attention to these activities” as a project manager. If any
of these is delayed, the whole project is delayed!
Float Analysis and Re-allocation. Assume you have limited
staff (20 people) and limited money. Using Table 7.1 alone,
perhaps someone assigned 10 people to handle activities I & J.
However, after CPM, you can see I & J have lots of “margin”
due to float, and perhaps it is better to re-assign/adjust people to
activities on “the critical path”.
© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 18
 Advanced Project Planning Tools: PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
This method is similar to the CPM.
However, PERT is more advanced, since each activity can
incorporate a ‘duration uncertainty’.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 19

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Using PERT, each activity is assigned ‘three time estimates’ as
attributes, which are:
to (optimistic estimate)
_______________________________________
tm (mode (most likely) estimate)
_______________________________________
tp (pessimistic estimate)
_______________________________________

Note: The values to and tp represent the left and right terminus
respectively, of a Beta probability density function.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 20

 Project Planning Tools: PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
As an example, the previous network diagram can be modified to
include estimation uncertainty, as follows:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 21

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique
The method to determine the critical path with PERT is similar to
CPM, however, the activity duration is known as “expected time, te”.
The first step is to calculate te for each activity, based on the
weighted average of tm, and the midpoint of (to + tp)/2. This is done
with the formula:

Activity Expected Time, te

Given the times A 3.00
from Fig. 7.15, the B 3.00
C 4.83
te values are: D 1.67
E 3.33
F 2.67
G 2.17
H 4.17
I 1.17
J 3.17
K 5.83

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 22

 Project Planning Tools: PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Next, we compute the Earliest Start, Latest Start, and Total Float for
each activity as:
Activity Expected Time, te Earliest Start Latest Start Total Float
A 3.00 0.00 0.50 0.50
B 3.00 3.00 3.50 0.50
C 4.83 0.00 0.00 0.00
D 1.67 4.83 4.83 0.00
E 3.33 6.50 14.85 8.34
F 2.67 6.50 6.50 0.00
G 2.17 9.17 9.17 0.00
H 4.17 11.34 11.34 0.00
I 1.17 4.83 14.34 9.51
J 3.17 11.34 18.17 6.83
K 5.83 15.51 15.51 0.00

Based upon the evaluation of the ‘Total Float = 0’ for certain

activities, we find that the critical path is: C-D-F-G-H-K, and the
project duration, Te is 21.34

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 23

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Hence, the critical path for PERT is drawn as:

[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 24

 Project Planning Tools: PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
One of the main advantages of the PERT technique, is the ability to
determine the ‘probability’ that a project will be completed within a
specified time, Ts.
In order to achieve this, the “Variance” for each activity must be
calculated assuming a Beta-distribution, using the equation:
σ2=((tp - to)/6))2
Activity Expected Time, te Variance, σ2
Hence: A 3.00 0.44
B 3.00 0.11
C 4.83 1.36
D 1.67 0.44
E 3.33 0.44
F 2.67 1.00
G 2.17 0.25
H 4.17 0.25
I 1.17 0.25
J 3.17 0.69
K 5.83 2.25
© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 25

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique
In order to determine the “probability” that the project will be
completed by a “specified time, Ts,” we can state the problem as:
Find Pr(T < Ts).

First, the random variable T in the equation above, must be converted

to the standard variable z, using the equation:
zs = (Ts - Te)/σT

Where: σT is defined as the standard deviation of the time to project

completion, which is based upon the critical path and is found by:
σT = (σ2C + σ2D + σ2F + ...)1/2

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 26

 Project Planning Tools: PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Once the standard variable zs is obtained, the probability for various
values of zs can be found using Table 5.1 in the text (duplicated below
for convenience):

z* -3.00 -2.75 -2.50 -2.25 -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00

Pr(z < z*) 0.001 0.003 0.006 0.012 0.023 0.040 0.067 0.106 0.159 0.227 0.308 0.401 0.500

Table 5.1. Abbreviated Table of Cumulative Distribution Function for the Standard Normal Distribution.
[ Hyman, Fundamentals of Engineering Design]

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 27

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Example #1:
For example, for the network diagram of Page 9, determine the
probability that the project completion time will be less than 20 units.
Hence this can be written as: Find Pr(T < Ts), were Ts=20.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 28

 Project Planning Tools: PERT
Example #2:
For the same network diagram of Page 9, determine the probability
that the project completion time will take longer than 24 units. Hence
this can be written as: Find Pr(T > Ts), were Ts=24.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 29

Project Planning Tools: PERT

Summary
Like CPM, the PERT has application to very practical and realistic
problems, likely to occur during your professional careers.

PERT has all the benefits of CPM, plus, you can make realistic
estimations of activity durations that account for uncertainty in the
estimates.

PERT also allows for the computation of “probability” of going over-

time on the “expected project duration”. Such information is highly
important in project management.

© N. Dechev, University of Victoria 30