Article

Quantifying the Trends in Land Surface Temperature

and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity in
Mediterranean Cities in View of Smart Urbanization
Anastasios Polydoros * ID
, Thaleia Mavrakou ID
and Constantinos Cartalis
Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 157 72 Athens, Greece;
thmavrakou@phys.uoa.gr (T.M.); ckartali@phys.uoa.gr (C.C.)
* Correspondence: apoly@phys.uoa.gr; Tel.: +30-210-727-6843

Received: 23 December 2017; Accepted: 14 February 2018; Published: 17 February 2018

Abstract: Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key parameter for the estimation of urban fluxes
as well as for the assessment of the presence and strength of the surface urban heat island (SUHI).
In an urban environment, LST depends on the way the city has been planned and developed over
time. To this end, the estimation of LST needs adequate spatial and temporal data at the urban
scale, especially with respect to land cover/land use. The present study is divided in two parts: at
first, satellite data from MODIS-Terra 8-day product (MOD11A2) were used for the analysis of an
eighteen-year time series (2001–2017) of the LST spatial and temporal distribution in five major cities
of the Mediterranean during the summer months. LST trends were retrieved and assessed for their
statistical significance. Secondly, LST values and trends for each city were examined in relation to
land cover characteristics and patterns in order to define the contribution of urban development and
planning on LST; this information is important for the drafting of smart urbanization policies and
measures. Results revealed (a) positive LST trends in the urban areas especially during nighttime
ranging from +0.412 ◦ K in Marseille to +0.923 ◦ K in Cairo and (b) the SUHI has intensified during
the last eighteen years especially during daytime in European Mediterranean cities, such as Rome
(+0.332 ◦ K) and Barcelona (+0.307 ◦ K).

Keywords: land surface temperature trends; MODIS-Terra; surface heat island; Mediterranean

1. Introduction
Urbanization is among the most evident aspects of human impact on the earth system. In the
process of urbanization, natural landscapes are transformed into modern land use and land cover
such as buildings, roads and other impervious surfaces, making urban landscapes fragmented and
complex and affecting the inhabitability of cities [1–3]. This leads to modifications of the surface
energy balance, which governs the momentum, heat and mass transfer between the surface and the
atmosphere, thus impacts dynamic processes in the urban boundary layer, and ultimately influences
the local, regional and even global climate. The increasing urbanization rate of cities in the coming
decades [4] is an important concern as more than 66% of the world’s population is expected to reside
in cities by 2050 [5–7], the total global urban land area is expected to increase by more than 1.5 million
square kilometers by 2030 [8] and climate projections foresee an increase in the frequency and intensity
of extreme events relevant to the vulnerability of urban areas, such as heavy rain, storm events and
heat waves [4,9]. Moreover, the last reports highlight the Mediterranean as a vulnerable region to the
impacts of global warming [4,10] and a review of climatic projections gives a collective picture of a
substantial drying and warming of the Mediterranean region, especially in the warm season [11].
Air and surface temperatures are expected to further increase and the urban heat island (UHI)
strength to be intensified, negatively influencing the sustainability and liveability of cities [12–17].

Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16; doi:10.3390/urbansci2010016 www.mdpi.com/journal/urbansci

Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 2 of 16

Surface urban heat island (SUHI), in particular, describes the land surface temperature (LST) differences
between urban areas and their surroundings, and it is usually studied with the use of remote sensing
data. The formation of SUHI can be mainly attributed to the increased absorption and trapping of
solar radiation in urban areas associated with limited release of heat due to the low values of the
thermal emission coefficients of manmade materials. Anthropogenic heat release from transport and
the heating-cooling systems of the buildings further exacerbate the phenomenon [18–20]. Both UHI
and SUHI can be detected throughout the year, but they are of particular public policy concern during
the summer, because higher surface and air temperatures are associated with increases in electricity
demand for air conditioning, air pollution, and heat stress-related mortality and illness [21–25]. Several
SUHI studies have been performed in the Mediterranean area, most of them revealing that higher UHI
intensities are found in the summer period [13,26–30].
Land surface temperature is a controlling factor for most of the physical, chemical and biological
processes on the earth, and can be considered as a measure of climate change [31–34]. For the urban
environment, LST is an important parameter for the monitoring of the energy exchange between
the land surface and the atmosphere in terms of the sensible and latent heat fluxes [35–38] which
are important when discussing the thermal effects of the cities on the regional climate. Sensible
heat flux is determined by temperature difference between the land surface and the air above it
and depends mainly on the LST variation. Therefore, LST is a suitable parameter for the analysis
of the thermodynamic processes from the surface to the atmosphere [37]. Additionally, LST is also
related to climatic variations caused by thermodynamic forcing, so the research on the variation and
the LST trends of the cities is of climatological and meteorological significance. An understanding
of LST is important for urban climatology, global environmental change and human-environment
interactions [39,40] and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has pointed out
the urgent need for the inclusion of long-term remote sensing–based LST data in global warming
studies [37]. LST changes rapidly in space as well as in time [41,42] and it has been found that
urbanization increases urban diurnal land surface temperature variation [43,44]; thus, an adequate
characterization of LST spatial and temporal distribution requires measurements with detailed spatial
and temporal resolution. Understanding the linkage between LST and urban surface characteristics is
important for designing effective measures to mitigate the amplitude of SUHI [45]. Moreover, effective
and sustainable urban management increasingly demands innovative concepts and techniques to
obtain up-to-date and area-wide information on the characteristics and development of the urban
system in support of smart urbanization policies and measures [46,47].
Earth observation offers a useful tool to gain an insight of the LST trends and variations within the
urban environment. The main advantages of remote sensing are the wide area coverage, the high spatial
resolution compared to meteorological ground stations networks and the variety of temporal resolution
that can be used depending on the research needs. Various studies have been conducted by utilizing LST
data from thermal infrared sensors like AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) [48–51],
MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectral Radiometer) [29,42,52–55], Landsat TM/ETM+/8 [56–60]
and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) [61,62]]. In [63]
Benas et al. analyzed the annual nighttime LST trends for 17 large cities of the Mediterranean for the
period 2001–2012 and found increasing LST trends in the majority of cities and large variations in
SUHI trends. Other researchers have used MODIS LST time series in other parts of the world [64–69].
In this study, summer daytime and nighttime LST data were extracted from MODIS-Terra products for
the period 2000–2017 and were analyzed for assessing LST and SUHI trends.

2. Materials and Methods

This study focuses on five major cities—Athens, Rome, Marseille, Barcelona and Cairo—lying
around the Mediterranean Sea (Figure 1). The aforementioned cities were selected based on their urban
population which is over 1.5 million (Table 1) and their Mediterranean climatic type. Mediterranean
winter is characterized by moderate temperatures and variable, rainy weather, while Mediterranean
 Cairo 20.5 1,709

In this research study, MODIS Level 3 8-day LST products were used, available from NASA’s
Terra satellite (product MOD11A2-Collection 6) [70]. The 8–day mean products are available at a 1 ×
1 km spatial resolution and provide LST data for daytime (10:30 local solar time) and nighttime
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 3 of 16
(22:30 local solar time). The MOD11A2 product has been validated and the accuracy was reported
better than 1 K under clear sky conditions [70], however higher errors may occur at large viewing
angles [71].
summer LST
is hot anddata used
dry. in the study
Although Cairo cover thetosummer
belongs another months
climatic (June
zone, to August)to
according forKöppen
the years 2000
climate
to 2017.
classification, due to its geographic location the climate obtains regularly Mediterranean characteristics.

the five
Figure 1. The Mediterranean Sea and the location of the five selected
selected cities.
cities.

Firstly, the monthly LSTTablevalues forcities

1. Selected June,
andJuly
their and August, were computed from the
characteristics.
MODIS-Terra 8-day product. Along with the LST data, the number of clear sky days and nights were
2)
used for the accurate estimation ofPopulation
the LST averages.
(m.) In order to ensureArea
Metropolitan the (km
reliability of the monthly
LST values, a minimum
Athensthreshold of twelve
3 clear sky days per month
1130 was set. Additionally, the
Rome
quality assurance data sets were used and 4.3 only good data quality 5352pixels were selected, which have
Marseille 1.8 3173
Barcelona 5.35 4206
Cairo 20.5 1709

In this research study, MODIS Level 3 8-day LST products were used, available from NASA’s
Terra satellite (product MOD11A2-Collection 6) [70]. The 8–day mean products are available at a
1 × 1 km spatial resolution and provide LST data for daytime (10:30 local solar time) and nighttime
(22:30 local solar time). The MOD11A2 product has been validated and the accuracy was reported
better than 1 K under clear sky conditions [70], however higher errors may occur at large viewing
angles [71]. LST data used in the study cover the summer months (June to August) for the years 2000
to 2017.
Firstly, the monthly LST values for June, July and August, were computed from the MODIS-Terra
8-day product. Along with the LST data, the number of clear sky days and nights were used for the
accurate estimation of the LST averages. In order to ensure the reliability of the monthly LST values,
a minimum threshold of twelve clear sky days per month was set. Additionally, the quality assurance
data sets were used and only good data quality pixels were selected, which have an average error for
emissivity ≤ 0.01 and for LST ≤ 1 K [70]. Subsequently, the summer average LSTs were calculated for
each year.
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 4 of 17

Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 4 of 16

an average error for emissivity ≤ 0.01 and for LST ≤ 1 K [70]. Subsequently, the summer average LSTs
were calculated for each year.
The 18-years
The 18-years LSTLST trend
trend forfor each
each city
city during
during dayday and
and night,
night, was
was examined
examined by by means
means of of aa linear
linear
regressionanalysis
regression analysisasas performed
performed at pixel
at pixel level,level,
using using
the leastthesquares
least squares
method. method.
A minimum A minimum
threshold
threshold
of fourteenofannual
fourteen annual
summer LSTsummer
values LSTwas values was set
set in order in order
to ensure to ensure
temporal temporal homogeneity
homogeneity in the trend
in the trend
values. values. the
In addition, In addition,
LST time the LSTwere
series timestatistically
series wereanalyzed
statistically
pixelanalyzed
by pixelpixel by pixel
by means by
of the
means of the Mann-Kendall
Mann-Kendall test, in order to test, in order
assess to assess significance
the statistical the statisticalofsignificance
the trend. of the trend.
Finally,and
Finally, andin inorder
orderto to assess
assess thethe SUHI
SUHI trends,
trends, ESA’s
ESA’sGlobCover
GlobCoverproductproductwas wasused
usedto to classify
classify the
the
land cover
land covertoto urban
urban andand non-urban.
non-urban. GlobCover
GlobCover classifies
classifies land for
land cover cover for the
the year 2009year
into 222009 into 22
categories,
using a spatial resolution of about 300 m × 300 m. The year 2009 is in the middle of the time series time
categories, using a spatial resolution of about 300 m × 300 m. The year 2009 is in the middle of the and
series that
taken and the
taken thatunder
cities the cities
study under
havestudy
changedhavelimitedly
changedthroughout
limitedly throughout
the years we thebelieve
years we believe
it is a goodit
is a good approximation
approximation for a fast andfor a fast
reliable and reliableWithout
methodology. methodology.
doubt a yearWithoutto yeardoubt a year to
classification year
would
classification would be more accurate and could amend the land
be more accurate and could amend the land cover change impacts. Urban areas were determinedcover change impacts. Urban areas
were the
from determined
land cover from
data theand
land thecover dataurban
average and theLSTaverage
trend was urban LST trend
calculated on was
this calculated on this
basis. According
basis.
to According
GlobCover to GlobCover
classification, urban classification, urban areas
areas are defined as theare defined
artificial as the artificial
surfaces surfaces and
and the associated the
areas
associated areas covering more than 50% of the pixel considered. All the
covering more than 50% of the pixel considered. All the other land cover classes were merged and other land cover classes were
merged and
classified classified and
as non-urban as non-urban
the averageand the average
non-urban non-urban
LST trend was also LSTcalculated.
trend wasInalso calculated.
Figure 2 the land In
Figure 2 the land cover classification to urban and non-urban areas is
cover classification to urban and non-urban areas is presented. The above results were converted frompresented. The above results
weretrend
LST converted
valuesfrom LSTintrend
as given values as
percentages to given in percentages
LST trend to LSTfor
values in Kelvin trend values of
the period ineighteen
Kelvin for the
years
period
and theof eighteen
SUHI trend years
wasandthenthe SUHI trend
estimated was then estimated
by subtracting the averageby subtracting
non-urbanthe average
trend valuenon-urban
from the
trend value
urban from the
one. Using the urban
average one. Using
values of the average values
all non-urban areasoftoall non-urban
extract the SUHIareas to some
has extract the SUHI
limitations
hasthe
as some limitations
non-urban as will
areas the non-urban
be greatly areas will be greatly
heterogeneous and heterogeneous and very the
very different between different
cities.between
Finally,
the cities. Finally, the extent of each study area was selected so that the number
the extent of each study area was selected so that the number of non-urban pixels to be greater than of non-urban pixels to
be greater than the number of urban pixels in order
the number of urban pixels in order to achieve meaningful results. to achieve meaningful results.

Figure 2. Cont.
Figure 2. Cont.
Urban
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 55 of 16
UrbanSci.
Sci.2018,
2018,2,2,16
16 5ofof17
17

Figure
Figure 2. Land cover maps depicting the urban and suburban areas of each study area: (a)
(a) Athens,
Figure2.2.Land
Landcover
covermaps
mapsdepicting
depictingthe
theurban
urbanand
andsuburban
suburbanareas
areasofofeach
eachstudy
studyarea:
area: (a)Athens,
Athens,
(b)
(b) Marseille, (c) Barcelona, (d) Rome and (e) Cairo.
(b)Marseille,
Marseille,(c)
(c)Barcelona,
Barcelona,(d)
(d)Rome
Romeandand(e)
(e)Cairo.
Cairo.

3.3.Results
Results
3.1.
3.1. LST Trends Analysis
3.1.LST
LSTTrends
TrendsAnalysis
Analysis
LST
LST trend maps were developed for each city from the eighteen years LST time-series. Figures 3
LSTtrend
trendmaps
mapswere weredeveloped
developedfor foreach
eachcity
cityfrom
fromthe
theeighteen
eighteenyearsyearsLSTLSTtime-series.
time-series.Figure
Figure33
and
and 4 depict the LST trend maps for the urban pixels of the city of Athens during day and night
andFigure
Figure44depict
depictthetheLST
LSTtrend
trendmaps
mapsfor forthe
theurban
urbanpixels
pixelsofofthe
thecitycityofofAthens
Athensduring
duringday dayand
and
respectively.
night Particularly, the majority of the daytime trends of the urbanofpixels (Figurepixels
3) have positive
night respectively. Particularly, the majority of the daytime trends of the urban pixels (Figure3)3)
respectively. Particularly, the majority of the daytime trends the urban (Figure
values,
have while the highest trend values are found in the urban found
core, which is urbancharacterizedwhich
by high
have positive
positive values,
values, while
while the
the highest
highest trend
trend values
values areare found inin the the urban core,
core, which isis
built-up density.
characterized The average LST trend in the last eighteen years is +0.25% in the urban core and
characterizedby byhigh
highbuilt-up
built-updensity.
density.TheTheaverage
averageLST LSTtrend
trendininthe
thelast
lasteighteen
eighteenyears
yearsisis+0.25%
+0.25%inin
+0.06%
the in the entire urban agglomeration. As the distance from the city center increases, alongside
theurban
urbancorecoreand
and+0.06%
+0.06%ininthe
theentire
entireurban
urbanagglomeration.
agglomeration.As Asthe
thedistance
distancefrom
fromthethecity
citycenter
center
with a decrease
increases, in the urban density, the LST trend values decrease reaching slightly negative trend
increases,alongside
alongsidewithwithaadecrease
decreaseininthe theurban
urbandensity,
density,thetheLST
LSTtrend
trendvalues
valuesdecrease
decreasereaching
reaching
values
slightly at the edges of the urban agglomeration.
slightlynegative
negativetrend
trendvalues
valuesatatthe
theedges
edgesofofthetheurban
urbanagglomeration.
agglomeration.

Figure
Figure3.
Figure 3.3.Daytime
DaytimeLand
Daytime LandSurface
Land Surface
Surface Temperature
Temperature
Temperature (LST) trends
(LST)
(LST) trendsof the
trends urban
ofofthe pixels
theurban
urban of Athens.
pixels
pixels The The
ofofAthens.
Athens. solid line
Thesolid
solid
indicates
line the boundary
lineindicates
indicates the of theofof
theboundary
boundary urban
the district,
theurban
urban the circle
district,
district,the indicates
thecircle the urban
circleindicates
indicates the core
theurban
urbanofcore
the of
core city and
ofthe
the the
city
city point
and
and the
the
indicates
point the pixel
indicates the selected
pixel for time
selected series
for time analysis.
series (gray: outside
analysis. (gray: study area
outside studyandareanon-urban
and pixels,
non-urban
point indicates the pixel selected for time series analysis. (gray: outside study area and non-urban
white:
pixels, sea). sea).
pixels,white:
white: sea).

In
InFigure
Figure44the
thenighttime
nighttimeLST
LSTtrend
trendmap
mapisispresented
presentedfor
forthe
theurban
urbanpixels
pixelsofofthe
thecity
cityofofAthens.
Athens.In
In
general, during nighttime the spatial distribution of the LST trend values follows a different pattern
general, during nighttime the spatial distribution of the LST trend values follows a different pattern as as
 compared to the daytime one. In detail, urban core pixels have slightly smaller positive trend values
compared to the urban pixels lying at the edges of the urban agglomeration. The aforementioned
results can be attributed to the expansion of the city and the accompanied replacement of the natural
materials with man-made ones, which have different thermal properties (i.e., heat capacity). In the
Urban Sci. 2018, 2,of16the city the land cover change that has occurred in the past eighteen years is more intense6 of 16
outskirts
than the urban core which already had high urban densities back in 2000.

Figure 4. Nighttime
Figure LSTLST
4. Nighttime trends of of
trends the
theurban
urbanpixels
pixels of Athens.The
of Athens. Thesolid
solid line
line indicates
indicates the the boundary
boundary
of theofurban
the urban district,
district, thethe circle
circle indicatesthe
indicates theurban
urban core
core of
ofthe
thecity
cityand
andthethe
point indicates
point indicatesthe pixel
the pixel
selected
selected for time
for time series
series analysis.
analysis. (gray:outside
(gray: outside study
study area
areaand
andnon-urban
non-urban pixels, white:
pixels, sea).sea).
white:

The daytime LST trend patterns of the other cities follow the pattern of Athens, as a clear
In Figure 4between
connection the nighttime LST trend
urban density andmap
LST is presented
trend values isforapparent
the urban pixels
(Figure of the The
5a,c,e,g). city urban
of Athens.
In general, during nighttime the spatial distribution of the LST trend values follows
cores of Marseille, Barcelona and Rome exhibit the highest positive LST trend values reaching +0.3%, a different pattern
as compared
althoughtothe the daytime
average one.LST
urban In detail, urban
trends have core pixels
slightly have
negative slightly
values, duesmaller positive
to the many urban trend values
pixels
in the to
compared outskirts
the urbanof the city characterized
pixels lying at the by different
edges of the built-up
urbandensities than the urban
agglomeration. core of the
The aforementioned
city.
results canInbeFigure 6 the time
attributed to the series of one pixel
expansion of theinside the urban
city and core of each replacement
the accompanied city are presented.
of theThe
natural
materials with man-made ones, which have different thermal properties (i.e., heat capacity). toIn the
selected pixels are located in the indicated urban core areas (see Figures 3 and 5) and correspond
high positive daytime trends of the urban core.
outskirts of the city the land cover change that has occurred in the past eighteen years is more intense
Similar to Athens, the nighttime LST trend values of the other cities were found to have higher
than the urban core which already had high urban densities back in 2000.
positive values than the daytime LST trend values (Figure 5b,d,f,h). In addition, the urban areas in
The daytime LST trend patterns of the other cities follow the pattern of Athens, as a clear
the outskirt of these cities exhibit higher LST trends than the urban core of the cities following the
connection
nighttimebetween
patternurban density
of Athens. Theand LSTnighttime
highest trend values is apparent
LST trends (Figure
were found in 5a,c,e,g).
Cairo where Thetheurban
cores average
of Marseille,
urban Barcelona
LST trend isand Rome
+0.3%, withexhibit
maximum the highest positive
trend values LST+0.5%.
reaching trend values reaching +0.3%,
although theThe average urban test
Mann-Kendall LSTwas trends have slightly
performed for all negative
cities undervalues,
studydueon to the many
a pixel urban
by pixel basispixels
in in
order to assess
the outskirts of the the
citystatistical significance
characterized of the results.
by different built-up Thedensities
higher percentages
than the urbanof the statistically
core of the city.
significant
In Figure pixelsseries
6 the time (90% ofconfidence
one pixel level)
insidewere found core
the urban during nighttime
of each city arein presented.
Rome and in The Cairo
selected
reaching 60% and 93% of the urban pixels respectively (Figure 7). In
pixels are located in the indicated urban core areas (see Figures 3 and 5) and correspond to all other cases the majority of high
the LST trend values of the urban pixels were not significant at the 90% confidence level, especially
positive daytime trends of the urban core.
at daytime. In the case of Marseille significant trends were not found at all. However, as a general
Similar to Athens, the nighttime LST trend values of the other cities were found to have higher
remark most of the significant trend values were found in the outskirts of the cities. There, the
positive values that
possibility thanathe daytimeland
significant LST cover
trend change
values has (Figure 5b,d,f,h).
occurred In addition,
is greater, the urban
connecting areas in
the urban
the outskirt
expansion of with
thesethe cities exhibitpositive
significant higherLSTLST trends
trend than the urban core of the cities following the
values.
nighttime pattern of Athens. The highest nighttime LST trends were found in Cairo where the average
urban LST trend is +0.3%, with maximum trend values reaching +0.5%.
The Mann-Kendall test was performed for all cities under study on a pixel by pixel basis in order
to assess the statistical significance of the results. The higher percentages of the statistically significant
pixels (90% confidence level) were found during nighttime in Rome and in Cairo reaching 60% and
93% of the urban pixels respectively (Figure 7). In all other cases the majority of the LST trend values of
the urban pixels were not significant at the 90% confidence level, especially at daytime. In the case of
Marseille significant trends were not found at all. However, as a general remark most of the significant
trend values were found in the outskirts of the cities. There, the possibility that a significant land
cover change has occurred is greater, connecting the urban expansion with the significant positive LST
trend values.
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 7 of 16
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 7 of 17

Figure 5.
Figure 5. LST
LST trend
trend values
values ofof the
the urban
urban pixels
pixels of
of a)
(a)Marseille
Marseilledaytime;
daytime;b)(b)
Marseille
Marseillenighttime;
nighttime;c)
Barcelona daytime; d) Barcelona nighttime; e) Rome daytime; f) Rome nighttime;
(c) Barcelona daytime; (d) Barcelona nighttime; (e) Rome daytime; (f) Rome nighttime; (g) Cairo g) Cairo daytime
and h) Cairo
daytime and nighttime The solid The
(h) Cairo nighttime line solid
indicates
line the boundary
indicates of the urban
the boundary district,
of the urbanthe circle the
district, indicates
circle
the urbanthe
indicates core of the
urban city
core of and the and
the city pointthe
indicates the pixelthe
point indicates selected for timefor
pixel selected series
timeanalysis. (gray:
series analysis.
outsideoutside
(gray: study area
studyand non-urban
area pixels,pixels,
and non-urban white:white:
sea). sea).
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 8 of 16
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 8 of 17

Figure6.6.Time
Figure Timeseries
seriesofofdaytime
daytime and
and nighttime
nighttime LSTs.
LSTs. TheThe LSTs
LSTs correspond
correspond to one
to one selected
selected pixelpixel per
per city
cityitthat
that it is located
is located at the at the urban
urban core
core and and exhibits
exhibits high positive
high positive LST
LST trend astrend
it canas
beitseen
canin
beFigures
seen in3Figures
and 5.
3 and 5.
3.2. Surface Urban Heat Island Analysis
3.2. Surface Urban Heat Island Analysis.
In order to assess the surface heat island phenomenon, LST trends in percentages (% per eighteen
years)Inwere
order to assesstothe
converted LSTsurface
trendsheat islandfor
in Kelvin phenomenon, LST trends
a period of eighteen in percentages
years using 2000 data(% per
as
eighteen years)
reference. The LSTwere converted
values to LST trends
were estimated in Kelvin
on a pixel for abasis
by pixel period
andofthe
eighteen
results years
for theusing 2000
city of data
Athens
as reference.
are presented The LST values
in Figures 8–11. were estimated on a pixel by pixel basis and the results for the city of
Athens are presented in Figures
Daytime LST trend values of 8–11.
Athens reach +0.8 ◦ K in the urban core (Figure 8) and then decrease
Daytime
gradually LST the
towards trend values ofofthe
outskirts Athens reach +0.8
city, resulting in °K in the urban
an average urbancore
LST(Figure
trend of8)+0.167
and then
◦ K.
decrease
The gradually
non-urban areastowards
exhibit athe
wideoutskirts
range ofofLSTthetrend
city, resulting
values, asin an average
expected, due urban LST trend
to the various landof
+0.167°that
covers K. The non-urban
characterize theareas exhibitclass
non-urban a wideandrange of LST trend changes
the accompanied values, as
thatexpected, due to the
can be numerous
various land covers that characterize the non-urban class and the accompanied
(Figure 9). The average LST trend in the non-urban areas is slightly negative (−0.046 K). changes
◦ that can be
numerous (Figure 9). The average LST trend in the non-urban areas is slightly negative (−0.046 °K).
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 9 of 16
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 9 of 17

Figure 7.
Figure 7. Significant
Significant and
andnon-significant
non-significanturban
urbanpixels
pixelsofof(a)(a)Athens
Athensdaytime,
daytime, (b)(b)
Athens nighttime,
Athens nighttime, (c)
Barcelona daytime, (d) Barcelona nighttime, (e) Rome daytime, (f) Rome nighttime,
(c) Barcelona daytime, (d) Barcelona nighttime, (e) Rome daytime, (f) Rome nighttime, (g) Cairo (g) Cairo
daytime and
daytime and (h)
(h) Cairo
Caironighttime.
nighttime. The
The solid
solid line
line indicates
indicates the
the boundary
boundary ofof the
the urban
urban district,
district, the
the circle
circle
indicates the urban core of the city and the point indicates the pixel selected for time series
indicates the urban core of the city and the point indicates the pixel selected for time series analysis. analysis.
(gray: outside
(gray: outside study
study area
area and
and non-urban
non-urbanpixels,
pixels,white:
white: sea).
sea).
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 10 of 16
Urban
Urban Sci.
Sci. 2018,
2018, 2,
2, 16
16 10
10 of
of 17
17

Figure 8. LST
Figure trend values (in ◦°K)
K) of the urban pixels
pixels ofAthens
Athens (Daytime).
Figure 8.
8. LST
LST trend
trend values
values (in
(in °K) of the urban
urban pixels of
of Athens (Daytime).
(Daytime).

Figure
Figure 9. 9.
Figure LST
LST
9. trend
LSTtrend values
trendvalues (in
(in◦°K)
values(in of
K) of
°K) the non-urban
of the non-urban
non-urban pixels
pixelsof
pixels ofAthens
of Athens(Daytime).
Athens (Daytime).
(Daytime).

At
At nighttime,
nighttime, urban areas
areasofof
urbanareas Athens
ofAthens (Figure
Athens(Figure 10)
(Figure 10) exhibit
exhibit an
10) exhibit an average positive LST trend of +0.52 °K,
per
Ateighteen
nighttime, urban
years. Contrary to daytime, non-urban areas
an average
average
during
positive
positive
nighttime
LST
have
LST trend
only
trend ofof
+0.52
positive
°K,◦ K,
+0.52
LST
per eighteen years. Contrary to daytime, non-urban areas during nighttime have only positive LST
pertrend
eighteen years. Contrary to daytime, non-urban areas during nighttime have only positive LST
trend values.
values. TheThe average
average non-urban
non-urban LST LST trend
trend (Figure
(Figure 11)11) isis similar
similar to to the
the urban
urban oneone (+0.53°
(+0.53° K).
K).
◦ K).
trend values.
For The average non-urban LST trend the(Figure 11) isLST similar toofthe urban one (+0.53
For the
the examination
examination of of the
the SUHI
SUHI trends
trends the average
average LST trend trend of the the non-urban
non-urban areas areas was
was
For the examination
subtracted of the SUHI trends theThe average results
LST trendthe of thecities
non-urbanstudy areas was
subtracted from
from the
the LST
LST trend
trend of of the
the urban
urban areas.
areas. The SUHISUHI results for for the five
five cities under
under study are are
subtracted
presented from
in the LST
Table 2 trend with
along of thetheurban areas.urban
average The SUHIand results for LST
non-urban the five
trendcities
values underin study
Kelvin. are
presented in Table 2 along with the average urban and non-urban LST trend values in Kelvin.
presented
Results in
Results Table
reveal
reveal 2 alongSUHI
positive
positive with trend
SUHI the average
trend values urban
values duringand
during non-urban
daytime
daytime for theLST
for the trend values
majority
majority of
of the in Kelvin.
the cities
cities and Results
and minor
minor
reveal
changes of SUHI during nighttime. In particular, during the last eighteen years in Marseille, SUHI of
positive
changes of SUHI
SUHI trend
during values
nighttime. during
In daytime
particular, for the
during majority
the last of the
eighteen cities
years and
in minor
Marseille, changes
SUHI
SUHI
has during
has nighttime.
intensified
intensified by
by +0.605In particular,
+0.605 °K
°K in during
in daytime,
daytime, the last
which
which is
is the
theeighteen
maximum
maximum yearsSUHI
SUHIin Marseille,
trend
trend value
valueSUHI has intensified
observed.
observed. SUHI
SUHI
by has ◦
has weakened only in one city, in Cairo, by −0.3 °K. SUHI in the other cities appears to have been
weakened
+0.605 K in only in
daytime, one city,
which in
is Cairo,
the by
maximum −0.3 °K.
SUHI SUHI
trend in the
valueother cities
observed. appears
SUHI to
has have
weakened
been
strengthened
only in one city,at
strengthened inleast
at Cairo,
least by +0.2
by by
+0.2 0.3 ◦At
−°K.
°K. AtK.nighttime
SUHI in the
nighttime the SUHI
the other of
of Cairo
SUHI cities has
has weakened
appears
Cairo to have been
weakened by
by −0.109°K unlike
strengthened
−0.109°K unlike at
the other ◦ K. At
+0.2cities, where the ◦ K unlike
least
thebyother cities, the SUHI
nighttime
where change
changeofis
the SUHI
SUHI considerable
isCairo limited.
has weakened
considerable limited.by It
It must
−0.109
must be
be noted
noted that
thatthethe standard
the other cities,
standard
deviations
where the SUHI
deviations are very
are change large in every
is considerable
very large case as
in every caselimited. a consequence of
It must beofnoted
as a consequence the low
the low statistical
thatstatistical
the standardsignificance
deviations
significance of
of the
the LST
are very
LST
trends.
large in every case as a consequence of the low statistical significance of the LST trends.
trends.
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 11 of 16
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 11 of 17
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 11 of 17

Figure 10. LST

Figure trend values (in ◦°K)
K) thethe urbanpixels
pixels ofAthens
Athens (Nighttime).
Figure 10.
10. LST
LST trend
trend values
values (in
(in °K) of
of the urban
urban pixels of
of Athens (Nighttime).
(Nighttime).

Figure
Figure 11. LST
11.LST
11.
Figure trend
LSTtrend values
trendvalues (in
(in °K)
values(in °K) of
of the
◦ K) of the non-urban
non-urban pixels
non-urban pixelsof
pixels ofofAthens
Athens(Nighttime).
Athens (Nighttime).
(Nighttime).

Table
Table 2.
2. Average
Average urban,
urban, non-urban
non-urban LST LST and
and Surface
Surface Urban
Urban Heat
Heat Island
Island (SUHI)
(SUHI) trend
trend values
values in
in
Kelvin
Kelvin and standard
and standard deviations in parenthesis.
Table 2. Average urban,deviations
non-urban in LST
parenthesis.
and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) trend values in Kelvin
and standard deviations in parenthesis. Daytime Nighttime
Daytime Nighttime
Urban
Urban Non-urban
Non-urban SUHI SUHI Urban
Urban Non-urban
Non-urban SUHI SUHI
0.167 Daytime
−0.046 0.213 0.521 Nighttime
0.536 −0.015
Athens 0.167 −0.046 0.213 0.521 0.536 −0.015
Athens Urban
(0.489) (0.550) (0.736)
(0.489) Non-urban
(0.550) (0.736) (0.193)
SUHI Urban
(0.193) (0.204)
Non-urban
(0.204) (0.281)
SUHI
(0.281)
−0.421
−0.421
0.167 −
−0.753
−0.753
0.046
0.332
0.332
0.213
0.723
0.723
0.521
0.672
0.672
0.536 −
0.051
0.051
0.015
Rome
Rome
Athens (0.530)
(0.489)
(0.530) (0.493)
(0.550)
(0.493) (0.724)
(0.724) (0.170)
(0.736) (0.193)
(0.170) (0.232)
(0.204)
(0.232) (0.287)
(0.281)
(0.287)
−−0.149
0.421
−0.149 −−1.154
0.753
−1.154 0.605
0.332
0.605 0.412
0.723
0.412 0.418
0.672
0.418 −0.006
0.051
−0.006
Marseille
Rome
Marseille (0.530)
(0.480) (0.493)
(0.613) (0.724)
(0.778) (0.170)
(0.169) (0.232)
(0.168) (0.287)
(0.238)
(0.480) (0.613) (0.778) (0.169) (0.168) (0.238)
−−0.404
0.149 −−0.711
1.154 0.605
0.307 0.412
0.459 0.418
0.435 − 0.006
0.024
Marseille
Barcelona −0.404 −0.711 0.307 0.459 0.435 0.024
Barcelona (0.480)
(0.557) (0.613)
(0.590) (0.778)
(0.811) (0.169) (0.168) (0.238)
−(0.557)
0.404 −(0.590)
0.711 (0.811) (0.233)
0.307 (0.233)
0.459
(0.237)
(0.237)
0.435
(0.332)
(0.332)
0.024
Barcelona −0.034 0.262 −0.296 0.923 1.032 −0.109
Cairo −0.034
(0.557) 0.262
(0.590) −0.296
(0.811) 0.923
(0.233) 1.032
(0.237) −0.109
(0.332)
Cairo
−(0.558)
0.034
(0.558) (0.857)
(0.857) −0.296
0.262 (1.02)
(1.02) (0.360)
0.923
(0.360) (0.395)
1.032
(0.395) (0.534)
−0.109
(0.534)
Cairo
(0.558) (0.857) (1.02) (0.360) (0.395) (0.534)
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 12 of 16

4. Discussion
Assessing the summer LST trends of the period 2000–2017 in five major cities of the Mediterranean
provided a clear evidence of positive LST trends during nighttime in the urban areas of these cities.
These results are consisted with [63] who found positive annual nighttime LST trends in big cities
across the Mediterranean region for the period 2001–2012. The LST change in the past eighteen
years varies from +0.412 ◦ K in Marseille to +0.923 ◦ K in Cairo. Again, these results are consistent
with [63] who found that Cairo exhibited the highest annual nighttime LST trends in the Mediterranean
region and Marseille the lowest. These positive LST trends highlight the need of increased awareness
regarding urban climate adaptation and mitigation plans.
The summer daytime LST present both positive and negative trends, although their spatial
distribution suggests that positive trends are found in the urban core of these cities. The large standard
deviation values reflect the large spatial variability of the LST trends of the urban areas, probably due
to the low accuracy of the Globcover product in mapping urban areas especially in Europe as [72]
reported. In addition, the inherent characteristic of the Globcover product to define as urban the
artificial surfaces including all non-vegetative and human-constructed facilities that cover greater
than 50% of a given landscape unit leads to heterogeneous urban pixels which in turn leads to large
spatial variability especially during daytime. In [73–75] it is demonstrated that land cover composition
and configuration greatly affects the magnitude of LST and that LST differs according to different
landscape types, and the proportion of landscape types is the most significant factor affecting LST.
The vast majority of the LST trends were not statistical significant at the 90% level in consistency
with [63] who found very few significant nighttime LST trends in the Mediterranean cities and with [65]
who found non-statistical significant maximum and minimum LST trends around the globe. Contrary
in [68], statistical significant negative LST trends at the 95% confidence level were found in the wider
Athens area. In the latter study however the MOD11A2 LST data were upscaled to a 10km x 10km
spatial resolution.
Nighttime SUHI present both positive and negative trends with low absolute values and these
results are in line with [63] who found negative nighttime SUHI trends for Cairo and Marseille and
positive nighttime SUHI trends for Rome and Barcelona. For the case of Athens, [63] found a negligible
positive trend (0.02 ◦ K per decade) contrary to our results. The daytime SUHI has positive trends in the
European cities under study but negative trends are exhibited in Cairo. Unfortunately, no similar study
was found in the literature to compare the results of the daytime SUHI trends, especially considering
that the large standard deviations of these trends weaken their significance.
Further study of LST trends and SUHI focusing to more homogeneous urban areas should be
considered. It is well known that land cover changes in urban areas affect LST over time [76,77] so
additional research should be carried out by utilizing land cover change maps [78]. Nevertheless,
these results provides a baseline for further research whereas the study has indicated how a relatively
fast and straightforward LST analysis, using readily available satellite imagery, can assist in the SUHI
assessment and urban planning, providing focus for subsequent more intensive measurement and
analysis to support policy development and investment, especially in view of smart urbanization.

5. Conclusions
Summer LST and SUHI trends were calculated for five major Mediterranean cities for the period
2000–2017, using the MODIS 8-day product MOD11A2. LST and land cover data were used in order to
assess the LST trends in urban and non-urban areas of these cities and to examine the SUHI intensity
trend for the last eighteen years. The 2000–2017 time-series analysis found positive daytime LST trends
for the majority of the cities under study, with the highest values found at the urban core of the cities,
and positive nighttime LST trends in all cities. SUHI trends exhibit large variations, for daytime an
increasing but not statistical significant SUHI trend was found for all European cities but not for Cairo.
At nighttime, the SUHI trends are considerably limited with both positive and negative trends found.
Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 16 13 of 16

MODIS data are freely available and provide consistent LST estimates from 2000. Despite the
fact that they are not yet long enough for climatic studies, the methodology used in this research can
provide essential information on the urban dynamics and can be integrated in urban climate change
adaptation and strategy and also support the drafting of policies and measures for smart urbanization.
The study also highlights the benefits of using remote sensing data and especially of using MODIS data
for monitoring the LST dynamics and trends, as MODIS obtains the longest time series of consistent
LST data covering wide regions of the globe. Finally, further research should focus on the accurate
depiction of homogeneous urban areas in order to decrease the variability of the LST trends.

Author Contributions: All authors designed the methodology. Anastasios Polydoros and Thaleia Mavrakou
implemented the methodology and performed the necessary statistical analysis; all authors contributed to the
analysis of the data and to the drafting of the paper.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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