Top 10 Strategic Technology

Trends for 2013

Carl Claunch

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other
authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,
distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Extreme Pervasive
Behavior Access

CONSUMERIZATION
Global Class "Big"
Delivery Context
Key Issues
• What will have the biggest potential for significant impact
over the next three years?
• Which technologies or trends will drive significant change or
disruption?
• Are there changes or tipping points occurring now or over the
next one to two years that make the technology newly
strategic or applicable to a wider market?

1. Analytics and BI
CIO Technology 2. Mobile technologies
Priorities 2012 3. Cloud computing
4. Collaboration
Gartner Global CIO Survey 2012 (2,336 CIOs)
How Do Technology Trends Impact the
Human, Organization and IT Experiences?

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trend Impact

Trends for 2013 Assessment
1. Mobile Devices Battles
2. Mobile Applications & HTML5 Human

IT Dept. Experience
3. Personal Cloud Experience
4. Internet of Things
5. Hybrid IT & Cloud Computing
6. Strategic Big Data
7. Actionable Analytics
8. Mainstream In-Memory Computing Organization
Experience
9. Integrated Ecosystems
10. Enterprise App Stores
Mobile Device Battles:
Prepare for Heterogeneity
• Mobile experience A Huge Growth in Smart Devices …
eclipses the desktop
billion
experience.
Tablets
• Consumerization drives Mobile PC’s
Tablets
tablets into organizations.
Mobile PC’s
- BYOD and BYOA increases
Smart Phones Smart Phones
- MDM is not the only option
for securing mobile devices
Feature Phones Feature Phones
• Mobile strategy is a
process that must be 2012 2016
maintained and refreshed
• Cloud and mobile are … Leads to a Major Installed Base Shift
mutually reinforcing
Mobile
MobileOS
OS
trends
Unit 50%
• No platform, form factor Share
or technology dominates. PC OS
PC OS

- Windows' share shrinks. 2014

Mobile Device Battles:
Microsoft Big Bet With Windows 8
1981 DOS DOS Era Smartphone and Tablet Forecast
60%
Windows 50%
1993 on DOS Windows NT
WinNT
Era 40%
Windows 9X Windows 30%
2000
20%
2001 XP
Windows RT 10%
Vista
Era 0%
Win7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 Win8 Win8
Android iOS Microsoft
Win9
Smartphone Tablet

• Can Microsoft usurp Google as the hardware OEM favorite?

• Will a enterprise-friendly Windows 8 be enough to succeed?
• Can Microsoft establish a robust app and content ecosystem and an
elegant interface attractive to individual consumers?
• Will the crossover notebook/tablet be compelling?
Mobile Applications and HTML5:
Driving the Future User Experience
• New expectations for
usability, appearance and
behavior
• The experience flows to
where you are and what
you are doing in context
• Multichannel integration
and interactions becomes
a requirement
• Development challenges
abound
- New design skills More Inputs
- Cloud/Client More Places
architecture
- Complex apps More Actions
- Native apps vs. HTML5
Mobile Applications and HTML5:
Choosing Mobile Architectures
Native Special Hybrid HTML5 Message No Client
User
Experience
Rich
Function
AD Cost
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Device
APIs?
Out of
Signal?
Flexible
Security
Platform
Range
Agility

High/good Low/weak
Personal Cloud:
Moving Beyond Personal Computing
• A collection of services Your
and a representation of Digital Community
your digital life Life
News Tax Info.
- Embraces multiple devices Sports
Standings
E-Gov.
School
Schedule
Twitter
• The cloud is where users Content Facebook Shopping
School
Memories
Corp. Services SMS
center their digital lives. Archives RSS E-Mail

Professional
Work Comms Financial
Training at Wi-Fi

Personal
They are in control. Home Devices
Info.

Production Data
Banking
VOIP
- Cloud storage for apps, Corp
Apps LAN
Broad-
band
content and preferences Benefits Wi-Fi Banking
Conferencing Cell Cell
- Cloud sync across devices Personal
Hobbies
Records IM E-Mail
- Mobile with seamless shift Meeting
Records Financial Medical Music

between computing and Home

Security
communicating TV
Memories
Calendar

• Contextually aware and

operationally obvious Family
apps
‘Enterprise’ App Stores:
The Future Portal and Delivery Model
• Organizational App Stores are strategic for
governing cloud and mobile use in a consumer-
driven world
• Consumer-Centric Requirements
- App discovery/search and user choice
- Install/update, trials, social network
• IT-Centric Requirement
- License management and distribution
- Verification testing, reporting Potential New Entrants
- Approve, publish and control install/uninstall
• Challenges
- App stores intersect multiple IT markets
IBM
- Consumer store quality, support and licensing
- Difficulty embracing "apptrepreneurs," user choice
and IT role as market manager

Action Plan
2013-15: Mobile centric consumer and tactical organizational app store
2014-16: Mainstream organizational app store - packaged and portal options
2014/2018: Bring mobile and cloud together
The Internet of Things: Over 50% of Internet
It Is Already Here connections are things
2011: 15+ billion permanent,
50+ billion intermittent
Remote sensing of
objects and 2020: 30+ billion permanent,
environment >200 billion intermittent

Building & New routes to

Audio Infrastructure client service via
Management intelligent objects

Cameras and microphones

widely deployed Everything
has a URL

Flash
Content and services via
connected products
Augmented Situational
reality decision support
LTE

NFC
GPRS Wi-Fi
Higher-resolution display
The Internet of Things:
Impact and Implications

• CIOs will first feel the impact of IoT as OT Start now…Start simple. Ask what if?
and IT convergence
- By 2015, in more than 70% of orgs, a
single executive will oversee all Internet-
connected entities
- Focus on orchestration, not ownership
• New processes, information insights and
service models become possible
- Digital supply chain
- Sensing and controlling
- Usage-based insurance or taxes
- City information services — "smart" city
• Consider IoT implications
- Event streams and objects as "users"
- Drives need for big data strategies
- Extreme heterogeneity — device
capability, OS/API, legacy platforms
The Internet of Things
Becomes the Internet of Everything
Social network
Location
Calendar/Journal
Credit history

Places
# of people here
People
# people visited
Wait time Time to green
Reservation service # of cars: no stop
# of cars: stopped

Location
Information Diagnostics
Movies watched
Schedule
Expected disruptions Things
Cloud Computing:
Hybrid, Managed and Brokered
Cloud Strategy Mainstream Cloud Decision
Framework
Elements Focus

High and
Embrace

Clear
Consider Public
Private
Strategic Models for Cloud

Benefit
2012-2014 Private Cloud

Uncertain
Service Consumption

Low or
Elements Avoid
Experiment

Access Management High or Low and

Unmanageable Manageable

Adopt cloud techniques Service Management Challenges

and/or build private cloud 2010 + Service Optimization

IT as a Service
environments Resource Management Broker
Resources Enterprise

Secure, Manage and IT

Cloud Services Broker
Public &
Govern Hybrid Cloud and 2013-2015 (Cloud Mgmt. Platform)
Private
Svcs.
Public &
Comm. Legacy
Svcs.
Comm.
Svcs.
Svcs.
Hybrid IT

Adopt New Application

Design and Architecture Who will be
for Cloud responsible
for delivery
of cloud
Make Externally Facing services?
Services Cloud Services
Strategic Big Data:
Moving Beyond Isolated Projects
Perishability Fidelity
• Consider nontraditional data types
and external data sources
- GPS and sensors, weather service
or geologic survey data, traffic and
roadwork feeds, social graphs Validation Linking
Classification Contracts
• Hadoop and NoSQL gain
momentum
• Big data as a transformational
architecture vs. isolated project Technology Pervasive Use
• homogeneous RDBMS model Velocity Volume
replaced with heterogeneous
fabric
• Centralized model replaced with
distributed "logical" model Variety Complexity

"Big data" is high-volume, velocity and variety information assets

that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing
for enhanced insight and decision making.
Strategic Big Data:
Big Data Meets Social

The Consumer Funnel Five Richest Big

Data Graphs on
Relevant Graph
the Web
Awareness  Social and Mobile ("Like")

Consideration  Interest and Mobile

• Social Graph
Selection  Intent and Mobile ("Want") • Intent Graph
Consumption  Payment and Mobile
• Consumption
Fulfillment  Social
Graph
Support  Social
• Interest Graph
Loyalty and  Social and Mobile
Promotion
• Mobile Graph
Strategic Big Data:
The Future Model of the Data Warehouse
The Logical Data Warehouse • Single EDW is a concept of
the past — never achieved
Column-Store
DBMS
• New DBMS and file
Content CEP systems emerging to handle
& XML
specialized data types and
very large detail data
• XML and content not
Complex
Data moving into DBMS for text
Types
MDM analytics
• Managing petabytes of data
Cloud in a single DBMS is difficult
DBMS
In-Memory and not productive
DBMS
Data in
HDFS
• Data needed for CEP and
analytic applications
requiring zero latency will
We will abandon the old models based on be persisted in in-memory
the desire to implement for high-value DBMSs
analytic applications.
 Actionable Analytics:
Driven by Mobile, Social and Big Data Forces
• Cloud, packaged analytics and Shifting Analytic Focus
big data accelerates in 2013-14
FROM TO
• Real-time operational
intelligence supports intelligent Offline In-line
embedded
operations by the organization
Explanatory Predictive
• Usage emphasizes decision
management and optimization Simple Complex
• Man-machine partnership Structured Structure
emerges to enable new value
Individualistic Collaborative
• Systems shift from computing
and aggregation to reasoning, Historical Real Time
learning and acting
Static Dynamic Rules
• Search and analytics become Rules and Feeds and
more intertwined Reports Messages

• Convergence of analytic trends Specialist Consumer

drives new value
In-Memory Computing:
Reaching the Mainstream
• Changes expectations, In-Memory-Enabled Applications
design and architecture
• Key opportunities
- Boost performance and
response time
- Enable real-time self-
service BI data In-Memory App Platforms
exploration Complex In-Memory
In-Memory Event Application
- Enable elastic scale Analytics Processing Server
- Combine transactional
and analytical
In-Memory Data Mgmt. High-Performance
- Support big data Messaging
In-Memory In-Memory
• Overcrowded and DBMS Data Grid
Infrastructure
fragmented market
slowly converging
Memory-"Intensive" Computing Platform
• Focus on DBMS, data (DRAM, Flash, SSD, Multicore, Infiniband, Clusters, Grid, Cloud)
grid, analytics and CEP
Integrated Ecosystems:
Simplification, Optimization and Security
Appliances Server-Centric Appliances
- Integrated hardware, software & Physical Hybrid Virtual
services to address a workload
- Ease deployment & configuration
and optimize performance
- No one appliance does it all

Marketplaces and Brokerages App/Cloud/Mobile Marketplaces

- Facilitate purchase, consumption,

Facilitate/Manage
Service Consumer
Service
and/or use of services or apps Service
Provider

- May provide a foundation for app. Provider

development and runtime Service

Provider

End-to-End Ecosystems End-to-End Managed Ecosystems

- Vendor-led model extending from
the client through app. providers
- Promises secure and appliance
like mode for client devices Client App Store
Content/App
Provider
The Bottom Line
• Mobile-centric trends and technologies increasingly define the
client environment and the core end-user application
experience.
• Social networking and a contextual experience will permeate
application design and interfaces across all target users.
• Information strategies must deal with data volume, velocity,
variety and complexity exploiting new models to access,
analyze, visualize and communicate patterns and insights.
• Cloud is becoming a mainstream computing style and delivery
option with hybrid cloud, cloud brokerage and new delivery,
management and security options accelerating adoption.
• A Nexus Strategy is more than separate mobile, social,
information and cloud strategies.
Recommended Gartner Research
 iPad and Beyond: The Media Tablet in Business
David A. Willis (G00229639)

 Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2012

Tuong Huy Nguyen and Carolina Milanesi (G00234209)

 The Internet of Things Is Coming

John Mahoney and Hung LeHong (G00219075)

 The Impact of App Stores on Your Application Strategy

Dennis Gaughan and Ian Finley (G00213351)

 Understanding the Logical Data Warehouse: The Emerging Practice

Mark A. Beyer and Roxane Edjalli (G00234996)

 The Importance of 'Big Data': A Definition

Mark A. Beyer and Douglas Laney (G00235055)

 Who's Who in Collaborative Decision Making

Rita L. Sallam (G00214928)

 Hadoop and MapReduce: Big Data Analytics

Marcus Collins (G00208798)

 How Flash Memory in Servers Delivers Higher Value as a Uniquely Addressable Memory Type
Carl Claunch (G00218040)

 Hype Cycle for Server Technologies, 2012

George J. Weiss and Mike Chuba (G00230822)

 Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2012

David Mitchell Smith (G00230930)
For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone or e-mail us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.
 Top 10 Strategic Technology
Trends for 2013

Carl Claunch

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other
authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,
distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.