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Are We Looking At 2020 As A Year Of Capped Gains? These

Charts Have A Story Of 1000 Words To Tell

While the year 2019 ended, we saw the markets ending near the high point of the year.
Despite the negative ending on the last trading day of the year, the frontline NIFTY50
has ended the year with strong gains of 11.53% on a yearly note. However, that being
said, the year has also left us with so much to read on the long-term charts and has
offered many cues that suggest that the year 2020 may remain that of capped gains.

The above is the long-term 20-year monthly chart of the NIFTY50 index. As it is evident,
since the beginning of 2018 and all through 2019, the NIFTY has marked incremental
highs. However, the incremental highs on the frontline index have come with a
continued Bearish Divergence on the RSI. The bearish divergence has occurred as the
NIFTY marked higher levels while the RSI did not remain in sync and made lower tops
instead. This pattern is yet to be resolved.

Additionally, despite the 11.53% of gains in the NIFTY, this gain has also remained
primarily limited by the contribution of just five stocks. Reliance, ICICI Bank, HDFC,
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HDFC Bank, and Kotak bank has counted for over 85% of the total gains of NIFTY.
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Another vital thing to note from the technical perspective is that over the last two years,
there has been less and less of contribution from the broader markets while the front
line index gained.

The NIFTY500 Index represents the broader market, which represents over 95% of the
total free-float market cap. As seen in the above chart, while it hit its high, the rise in the
markets was secular. The secular participation was reflected through the RS Line, which
compares the performance of the NIFTY500 index against the NIFTY50. The rising
nature of this line until 2018 shows that the broader markets performed far better than
the NIFTY50 and the gains we secular in nature.

However, since the beginning of 2018 and through the entire 2019, whenever the
NIFTY500 revisited its peak, the RS Line, which compares the NIFTY500 index with the
NIFTY50, has remained under secular decline. This shows that there has been lesser
and lesser participation of the broader markets while it was only the NIFTY50 that
gained, that too, driven by gains of just five stocks.
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Even during 2019, while the NIFTY 50 gained 11.53%, the MidCap Index lost 4.42%, and
the Small Cap Index also lost 9.91%.

The monthly charts of the NIFTY continue to show bearish divergence and this pattern
is not yet resolved. Also, the occurrence of the Spinning Top on the candles points
towards likely exhaustion of the up move. Making matters difficult is that the broader
market breadth also continues to stay dismal, and the absence of participation in the up
move from the broader markets is a definite cause of concern going ahead.
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If we conclude from the present technical setup, the NIFTY needs to resolve the current
negative divergence against the lead indicators. Along with this, if the broader markets
fail to perform, it may not be surprising if the year 2020 turns out to be a year with
capped upsides.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of Gemstone
Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst

Member: (CMT Association, USA | CSTA, Canada | STA, UK) | (Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Tel: +91-70164 32277 | www.EquityResearch.asia | milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia

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