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Environmental Impact Present and Future Perspectives
Environmental Impact Present and Future Perspectives
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To cite this article: IBRAHIM DINCER (1998) Energy and Environmental Impacts: Present and Future Perspectives, Energy
Sources, 20:4-5, 427-453, DOI: 10.1080/00908319808970070
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Energy and Environmental Impacts: Present
and Future Perspectives
IBRAHIM DINCER
TUBITAK-Marmara Research Center
Gebze, Kocaeli-Turkey
of international activities have focused on this topic. In this article, four important
aspects that are related to the present and future patterns of environmental impacts,
energy consumption, energy conservation, and fuel substitution are introduced and
discussed in detail. We conclude that further political, economic, and institutional
changes from the standpoint of environmental impacts are necessaly for the future
energy policies. To this end, renewable energy resources can play an important role
in controlling and reducing environmental impact.
(Strong, 1992).
In the 1970s the primary focus was on the relationship between energy and
economics. At that time, the linkage between energy and the environment did not
receive as much attention. An institutional structure to deal with environmental
problems emerged after the 1970s in each country in the world. In the academic
community, concern about problems of pollution and the wasteful use of raw
materials and energy, of course, arose much earlier. Unfortunately, the institutions
that became responsible for environmental matters also held other conflicting
responsibilities. Since the late 1970s, parliaments have adopted a number of laws
on environmental and management policies that were supposed to be the basis of
central government decisions relating to economic development and environmental
impacts. Different government agencies were charged with carrying out economic
and legal measures for environmental protection.
As environmental concerns such as pollution, ozone depletion, and global
climate change became major issues in the 1980s, interest in the link between
energy utilization and the environment became more pronounced. Since then,
there has been increasing attention to this linkage. Many scientists suggest that the
impact of energy resource utilization on the environment is best addressed by
considering exergy. The exergy of a quantity of energy or a substance is a measure
of usefulness, quality, or potential to cause change. Exergy appears to be an
effective measure of the potential of a substance to impact the environment. In
practice, the author feels that a thorough understanding of what exergy is and how
it provides insights into the efficiency and performance of energy systems is
required for the engineer or scientist working in the area of energy systems and the
environment. In spite of many studies concerning the close relationship between
energy and the environment, there have been limited works on the link between
exergy and environmental concepts (Rosen & Dincer, 1996).
It is well known that there is always an environmental cost associated with the
thermal, chemical, and/or nuclear emissions that are a necessary consequence of
carrying out the processes that give benefits to mankind. The environmental impact
of emissions is reduced by increasing the efficiency of resource utilization. Some-
times, in practice, this is referred to as "energy conservation." However, increasing
efficiency generally entails greater use of materials, labor, and more complex
devices. The additional cost may be justified by the added security associated with a
decreased dependence on energy resources and by the social peace obtained
through increased productive employment.
Energy and Environmental Impacts 429
point where, despite lack of leadership from those in power, policy initiatives are
introduced to encourage increased energy efficiency programs in terms of energy
conservation and more environmentally benign forms of energy, and these may
begin to have an important effect. It is expected that energy consumption will grow
but at a relatively low rate. A concerted effort in using energy efficiently could,
however, considerably reduce the total energy consumed; a massive promotion of
new energy sources could capture a sizable segment of the market for renewable
energy.
It is well known that emissions such as CO,, SO,, and NO, from thermal
power plants contribute to long-range and global environmental damage through
the greenhouse effect and acid rain. Although SO, and NO, emissions have been
gradually reduced through technological improvements in power plants, the global
warming issue associated with fossil fuel CO, emissions continues to be a serious
and controversial issue. It is axiomatic that a rise in atmospheric CO, concentra-
tions is caused by human activities, such as the combustion of fossil fuels and
deforestation. At present, attention is being focused on devising strategies for
reducing CO, emissions (Arnagai, 1991).
The main purpose of this article is to address four important aspects, namely,
environmental impacts, energy consumption, energy conservation, and fuel substi-
tution, and to discuss the current situations and possible future developments.
Environmental Impact
The risk and reality of environmental degradation have become more apparent.
Growing evidence of environmental problems is due to a combination of factors.
During the last two decades, the environmental impact of human activities has
grown dramatically because of the sheer increase of world population, consump-
tion, and industrial activity. Throughout the 1970s, most environmental analysis
and legal control instruments concentrated on conventional pollutants such as
SO,, NO,, particulates, and carbon monoxide (CO). Recently, environmental
concern has extended to the control of micropollutants or hazardous air pollutants,
which are usually toxic chemical substances harmful in small doses, as well as to
that of globally significant pollutants such as CO,. Aside from advances in
environmental science, developments in industrial processes and structures have
led to new environmental problems. For example, in the energy sector, major shifts
430 I. Dincer
to the road transport of industrial goods and to individual travel by cars has led to
an increase in road traffic and hence a shift in attention paid to the effects and
sources of NO, and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. A brief discus-
sion on these gases and particulates is given below (Hollander & Brown, 1992).
CO, an odorless and colorless gas, is a significant polluter of urban air, where
it arises mostly from the incomplete combustion of automobile fuels. The human
health risk from inhaled C O arises from the fact that it enters the bloodstream and
disrupts the delivery of oxygen to the body's tissues by combining with hemoglobin,
the molecule that normally carries oxygen. At very high concentrations (e.g., those
that occur with unvented combustion in enclosed spaces), CO is a deadly poison.
At lower concentrations it can lead to angina, blurred vision, and impaired physical
and mental coordination.
SO,, a corrosive gas hazardous to human health and harmful to the natural
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Water Pollution
Both the quality and quantity of water resources are increasingly important issues,
particularly in the case of groundwater, if only because of its role in supplying
drinking and irrigation water. Efforts are still being made to control energy-related
pollution problems, e.g., geothermal fluids containing toxic chemicals, acid drainage
from mines, coal wastes, effluent containing hazardous chemicals from power
plants and refineries, and thermal pollution from the discharges of cooling systems
of power plants. There is still considerable lack of information and associated
uncertainty about the level of groundwater pollution and identification of energy-
related sources.
I. Dincer
Table 1
Importance of energy activities in the generation of air pollutants
Energy activities
Man-made
as % of As % of As % of Contributions as % of energy
Pollutant total total man-made related releases
1 2 ~wood combustion
VOC 5b 2.8" 5sb oil industry, l o b gas industry,
75b mobile sources
Radionuclides 10" 2.5" 25" 25d mining and uranium milling,
75d nuclear power and coal
combustion
co2 4' 2.2-3.2" 55-80" 15b natural gas, 45b oil, 40b
solid fuels
N2O 37-58" 24-43" 65-75" 60-75" fossil fuel combustion,
25-40" biomass burning
CH4 60" 9-24" 15-40" 20-40" natural gas losses,
30-50" biomass burning
Source: International Energy Agency (1989).
"Global estimates.
b~stimatesfor OECD countries.
'Global estimates of contribution of anthropogenic C 0 2 to increases in CO, concentra-
tions and to global warming is much larger.
d~stirnatesfor the United States.
Maritime Pollution
Much concern has concentrated on maritime pollution resulting from large acci-
dental oil spills. However, the main source of marine-based pollution remains
shipping operations. It is estimated that 1 tonne is discharged for every 1000 tonnes
of oil transported by sea. Therefore 1.1 million tonnes yr-' are the result of
regular discharge of oil by ships at sea, and the remainder (about 400,000 tonnes)
comes from tanker accidents. Spills are considered the most dangerous maritime
pollution, and much work needs to be done in this area (International Energy
Agency, 1989).
land surfaces that might be needed for large-scale exploitation of renewable energy
forms, e.g., solar power, wind power stations, or biomass production, which would
complete with other land uses. Other energy-related activities involving large
facilities or complex industrial processes, e.g., fuel refining or electric power
generation, are subject to, inter alia, environmental concerns about siting some-
times in addition to land-use concerns. Increased siting problems are occurring for
the disposal of solid wastes, ranging from those generated in pollution control
operations to high-level radioactive waste containing long-lived radionuclides.
1975; nearly all gasoline sold in Japan today is lead free. The European Commu-
nity reduced the allowable lead content of gasoline from 0.4 g/L in 1978 to 0.013
g/L in 1989. In the United States, lead emissions fell by 90% in the 1980s, and
emissions from lead smelter and battery factories have been substantially reduced
(Hollander & Brown, 1992). Additionally, the number of suspected hazardous
pollutants is very large, and knowledge of sources, emissions, and effects is still
developing. Concerns involve both localized effects, where micropollutants are
discharged, and regional effects due to toxic pollutants, e.g., cadmium, mercury,
and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Many energy-related activities emit
hazardous air pollutants, e.g., hydrocarbons (such as benzene) emitted fugitively
from oil and gas extraction and processing industries; hydrocarbon and dioxin
emissions caused by the use and combustion of petrol and diesel oil for transport;
small quantities of arsenic, mercury, beryllium, and radionuclides released during
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the combustion of coal and heavy fuel oil; and mercury, chlorinated dioxin, and
furan emissions from municipal waste incinerators.
In the United States the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a
new set of measures on September 1, 1994, that would require municipal incinera-
tors to upgrade systems and thus limit a host of toxins, including dioxin, lead,
cadmium, mercury, particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and carbon diox-
ide. The proposed regulations, required under the Clean Air Act Amendment of
1990, were phased in over 3 years. The regulations are expected to reduce
emissions by as much as 145,000 tons ~ r - 'at a cost upward of $450 million ~ r - ' ,
adding about $12 ton-' to the cost of burning refuse. This translates to a monthly
charge of $2 in garbage collection costs per household (Anon, 1994).
pollutants do not simply vanish in the sky, however, and this practice in North
America and Europe has merely led to the more intractable problem of acid rain.
Recently, there has been great interest in indoor air pollution due to increas-
ing energy-related activities. Here we give detailed information on this topic.
Energy use in buildings produces a variety of air pollutants, including CO, CO,,
smoke from stoves and fireplaces, and various gaseous oxides of nitrogen and
sulfur from furnaces, as well as stray natural gas and heating-oil vapors. The
radioactive gas radon, present in small quantities in natural gas, is emitted by
gas-burning appliances. Especially in well-insulated, tightly sealed, energy-efficient
homes, these pollutants and others-such as cigarette smoke, formaldehyde from
plywood and glues, radon from the surrounding soil, and asbestos-can build up to
significant levels. Highly energy-efficient buildings may be so tightly sealed that
they experience a complete air change only once every 2-10 hours, compared to
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once every hour or half hour for older, leaky buildings. While many of these
pollutants can be eliminated at the source-for example, by not smoking or not
using wood stoves or unvented gas heaters-others are so much a part of modern
life (or, in some cases, the natural world) as to be nearly inescapable. Ventilation is
the key. Exhaust fans are used to change the air in many energy-efficient buildings.
Often air-to-air heat exchangers are used to recapture the heat that would
otherwise go out with the indoor air (Hollander & Brown, 1992). A more troubling
and far more widespread problem of indoor pollution is the use of so-called
traditional fuels in the Third World. Smoke from wood, crop residues, and dung
contains a variety of carcinogens, mutagens, and other toxic substances in the form
of easily respirable particles. Health risks are particularly great among those who
spend long hours cooking over fires in enclosed spaces. Knowledge of indoor
pollutant dose-response relationships is still incomplete. Despite much research on
indoor air pollution, relevant control strategies are still at the developmental stage.
Acid Rain
Acids produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and the smelting of nonferrous
ores can be transported long distances through the atmosphere and deposited on
Earth in ecosystems that are exceedingly vulnerable to damage from excessive
acidity. This is referred to as the acid rain problem that has been found to be
mainly related to emissions of SO, and NO,. These pollutants have caused only
local concern in the past, largely for health reasons. However, as awareness of their
contribution to the regional and transboundary problem of acid rain has grown,
concern is now also focusing on other substances such as VOC, chlorides, ozone,
and trace metals that may participate in the complex set of chemical transforma-
tions in the atmosphere resulting in acid rain and the formation of other regional
air pollutants. The well-known effects are acidification of lakes, streams, and
groundwater, resulting in damage to fish and aquatic life; damage to forests and
agricultural crops; and deterioration of materials, e.g., buildings, metal structures,
and fabrics. Some energy-related activities are a major source of acid rain. For
example, electric power stations, residential heating, and industrial energy use
account for 80% SO, emissions, with coal alone producing about 70%. Another
source is sour gas treatment, which produces H,S, which then reacts to form SO,
when exposed to air. Road transport is an important source of NO, emissions, with
48% of total emissions in OECD countries (International Energy Agency, 1989).
I. Dincer
the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. It is well known that
the effective solution is to limit the number of vehicles through promoting efficient
public transport and to enforce the use of more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Ozone Depletion
It is well known that the ozone present in the stratosphere, roughly between
altitudes of 12 and 25 km, protects us from incoming ultraviolet radiation. A global
environmental problem is the distortion and regional depletion of the stratospheric
ozone layer, which was shown to be caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons
(chlorinated and brominated organic compounds), and N,O emissions. Ozone
depletion can lead to increased levels of damaging ultraviolet radiation, which
could cause a rise in skin cancer, eye damage, and harm to many biological species.
Energy-related activities are only partially (directly or indirectly) responsible for
these emissions. Energy activities, e.g., fossil fuel and biomass combustion, account
for 65-75% of anthropogenic N,O emissions. CFCs, which are used in air condi-
tioning and refrigerating equipment as refrigerants and in foam insulation as a
blowing agent, play the most important role in ozone depletion. Scientific debate
on ozone depletion has gone on for over a decade; only in 1987 was an interna-
tional protocol signed in Montreal-an historical landmark-to reduce production
of CFCs and halons. Conclusive scientific evidence of the destruction of strato-
spheric ozone by CFCs and halons has recently been gathered, and commitments
for a more drastic reduction of their production were undertaken at the 1990
London Conference. Replacement products and technologies without CFCs are
gradually coming to the fore and should make a total ban of these obnoxious
products less painful. One important aspect is the need to distribute fairly the
economic burdens derived from a ban of CFCs, particularly with respect to
developing countries, some of which have invested heavily in CFC-related tech-
nologies.
Table 2
Roles of different substances in the greenhouse effect
Ability to retain Preindustrial Present Annual Share in the greenhouse Share in the greenhouse
infrared radiations concentration concentration growth effect due to human increase due to human
Substance compared to CO, (PP~) (PP~) rate (%) activities (%) activities (%)
Energy demand growth has been very rapid since the sharp fall in oil prices in
1986, and world energy demand grew by 17% from 1986 to 1992, while oil demand
in 1994 was more than 12 million barrels d-' higher than in 1985. While the
abundance of potential energy resources is not in dispute, the present combination
of energy demand growth and energy prices may not be sustainable. According to
macroeconomic and population growth assumptions, the projected demand for oil,
natural gas, and coal, as well as for electricity, grows very rapidly. For example, if
crude oil prices were not to exceed $18 per barrel and if the recent slowing in the
rate of improvement of energy intensity continued, the world demand for oil could
exceed 100 million barrels d-' by 2010. This would represent an increase in
average consumption of about 2 million barrels d-', every year throughout the
next 15 years. Equally fast growth rates for coal and gas demand result from these
assumptions.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses two important cases for energy
analyses and future projections, namely, the capacity constraints case and the
energy savings case. In the first case, trends in past behavior are assumed to
continue to dominate future energy consumption patterns. In this respect, growth
in world energy demand proves too fast for production to keep up. In the second
case, exogenously imposed additional energy efficiency improvements are assumed
to be greater than those suggested by past behavior. In Tables 3 and 4, general
energy perspectives of the world based on these cases are given (OECD/IEA,
1995). As can be seen in Table 3, in the capacity constraints case, world total
primary energy demand is projected to increase by more than 44% between now
and 2010, or at an average annual rate of about 2.1%, to 11,489 million tonnes of
oil equivalent (Mtoe). This compares with average annual growth in primary energy
use of 2.4% from 1971 to 1992. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing
fossil fuel with an average of 2.5% yr-' through this period. In the energy savings
case, world energy demand grows by less than 35% from now to 2010, with rates of
growth in all regions being lower than those in the capacity constraints case. World
consumption of coal and other solid fuels in the period up to 2010 is expected to
increase at an annual average rate of 2% (to 3280 Mtoe) in the first case and 1.6%
in the second case (to 3067 Mtoe). Therefore, energy demand in this case increases
by only an average of 1.7% per year. By 2010, primary energy demand is projected
to reach 10,686 Mtoe (Table 4). Additionally, Tables 3 and 4 present the final
energy consumptions, net transformation and other losses, electricity outputs, gross
domestic product (GDP) values, energy per capita, and energy intensities, as well
as CO, emissions and their future projections. Further information about these
cases and energy analyses can be found in World Energy Outlook (OECD/IEA,
1995).
World energy use, after years of slow growth, began rising rapidly in the
mid-1980s. Between 1980 and 1986, energy use rose at an annual rate of only 1.5%
(mainly because of near zero growth in the major industrialized countries). How-
ever, 1987 saw a 3.1% increase, and in 1988 the figure was 3.7%. Most of the
growth in energy demand for years has been in developing countries. Between 1973
and 1987, their energy use grew at an annual average of 5.1%. Their share of the
world's commercial energy use rose from 14% in 1970 to 23% in 1985. Developing
countries are expected to continue to account for most of the growth in energy use.
The newly industrializing countries of Southeast Asia show the fastest growth of
all: an 11.4% increase in 1988. Japan's energy use rose by 6.2% in that year, and
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Table 3
General energy demand perspective of the world according to the capacity constraints case
Potential Annual growth rate (%) Fuel share (%)
1971 1992 2000 2010 1971-1992 1992-2000 2000-2010 1992-2010 1971 1992 2000 2010
that of the United States rose by 4%, reaching its highest level ( ~ o l l a n d e r&
Brown, 1992).
Oil is expected to keep the leadership role in the next century, and therefore
problems will continue to arise as periodic shocks and fluctuations cause demand
to adjust within a supply limit. The limit will probably remain about 4000 Mtoe
yr-' and will begin a slow decline in the middle third of the next century. With an
average production of 1000 Mtoe ~ r - ' ,supplies could last for about 90 years. It is
projected that production could continue close to this level throughout the 21st
century. Production elsewhere currently totals more than 2200 Mtoe, but the
reserve/production ratio is only 21 years. Using improved technologies in many
countries will help to maintain production close to 2000 Mtoe for several years. It
is known that resources of unconventional oil are much larger than those of
conventional oil and this will help to maintain the total world oil production close
to 3000 Mtoe yr-' through the 21st century (Eden, 1993).
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Proven natural gas reserves equal 100,000 Mtoe, which is two thirds of proven
oil reserves. It is likely that ultimate resources of conventional gas are comparable
with those of oil at a production rate of 3000 Mtoe yr-' to be maintained
throughout most of the 21st century. The present demand is 1700 Mtoe ~ r - ' ,and it
is likely to increase steadily as natural gas is used to substitute for oil, especially for
electricity generation. The use of natural gas in competition with oil will help to
stabilize world oil demand close to current levels. The longer term transport of gas
from production wells to markets will include three cases, namely, pipelines,
liquefied natural gas (LNG), and conversion to liquids. The development of these
transport facilities for natural gas will introduce additional flexibility and help to
restrain prices for the next one or two decades. World natural gas consumption is
projected to increase rapidly early in the 21st century, and hence the total energy
supply from natural gas is forecast to be about 3000 Mtoe yr-'. Therefore global
demand for natural gas is projected to grow considerably less, and by less than the
demand for total primary energy.
The contribution of solid fuels to the world energy potential is expected to
remain substantial and close to the present 29%. The relative abundance and
physical attributes of solid fuels indicate that the bulk of the consumption of most
countries is satisfied by indigenous resources. This is certainly the case, especially
for lignite, whose low thermal content makes large distance transportation uneco-
nomical. For example, in 1992, hard coal had the largest share of solid fuel
consumption, with about 70%, while lignite accounted for 12.3% and other solid
fuels for 15.5% (Eden, 1993). The energy supply of coal and solid fuels to world
energy in the 21st century is expected to reach 8000 Mtoe under normal circum-
stances. If some environmental constraints appear, supply would be less.
Hydropower will continue to increase, especially in developing countries, but
its growth will slow as options become more costly and/or more distant from major
markets, and as environmental protection is given high priority. It is projected that
hydro energy will rise to the equivalent of 1000 Mtoe yr-' by 2050.
Currently, nuclear energy generated, especially by industrialized countries, is
about 80%. However, a continued slowdown in the rate of nuclear power growth is
expected up to the early 21st century because of cost, regulatory and pricing
regimes, long design and construction times, and environmental and safety con-
cerns. Many countries have abandoned their nuclear programs, put them on hold,
or have stated long-term plans to eliminate nuclear power from their fuel base. It is
Energy and Environmental Impacts 443
expected that nuclear energy production, currently equivalent to 450 Mtoe yr-'
will grow by about 1.5% to 2010 and in the 21st century will fall slightly to 200
Mtoe. For the future of nuclear power, as known, one of the strongest arguments
driving a revival of nuclear energy is the fact that it can substitute for fossil fuels
and reduce their most undesirable environmental impacts, such as acid precipita-
tion and potential for C0,-induced climate change. While many environmentalists
argue that conservation is preferable, the role of nuclear energy in mitigating the
greenhouse effect has become an undeniable issue worldwide. Therefore it is
important to examine the necessary conditions for a significant nuclear revival.
The potential from new renewable energy sources, e.g., biomass, solar, wind,
geothermal, wave, is expected to reach about 100 Mtoe by 2010. If growth
continues at an average rate of 7% yr-', it will be reached 1500 Mtoe by 2050.
World electricity demand increased at an average annual rate of 4.5% from
1971 to 1992 and doubled to 4800 TWh. By 2010, it is projected to increase more
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-simply be buried. Instead, they have been used to supplement fuel supplies. No
longer are valuable reusable items disposed of. Recycling (resource recovery),
which inherently has extended the lifetime of many natural resources, is both more
profitable and more compatible with environmental aims.
Energy conservation became popular in the 1970s and has been called "the
fifth energy source." The advantage of conservation is that it not only postpones
shortages of energy sources, especially fossil fuels, and reduces environmental
damage, it can also save considerable amounts of money, even when energy costs
are low. Conservation, however, is only slowly reaching a wide range of users. The
efficient use of energy is also of paramount importance to developing countries, as
it can forestall the need for very large capital investments in additional and
unnecessary energy infrastructure.
In the early 1980s, priority was given to the following measures in order to
achieve successfully conservation results:
strong regulations and standards, particularly for cars and buildings
incentive schemes to stimulate energy conservation investments (for exam-
ple, insulation schemes or industrial investment incentives)
energy auditing and reporting schemes, especially for energy-intensive indus-
tries
measures to encourage the use of waste heat from power stations and from
industries, e.g., cogeneration of heat and electricity
promotion of research and development in conservation techniques
Since the late 1980s, the "environment" has been taken into consideration as
part of these criteria, and much attention has been paid to energy conservation and
the environment.
It is clear that there is an undoubtedly enormous potential for energy conser-
vation, which could considerably decrease total world energy consumption and,
thereby, the effects of energy consumption on the environment. One problem is
that implementing a program to encourage energy conservation and efficient
energy use requires a myriad of small changes in consumption patterns. Unlike a
fuel substitution program, a conservation program is somewhat open-ended and
may even seem intangible. However, the cumulative effect of apparently small
measures can bring remarkable fuel savings. An important point is that many of
these simple efficiency measures could be implemented in a relatively short time,
Energy and Environmental Impacts 445
since there is a rapid stock turnover for light bulbs, cars, and refrigerators, unlike
power stations.
A number of analysts have reached the important conclusion that despite high
capital costs, some efficiency measures can result in considerable net savings of
cash as well as energy. This is true for individual consumers and is even more true
for economies as a whole, where one can, for example, count into the equation the
savings on power stations that no longer need to be built, or on energy distribution
infrastructure that is not required. Such savings are worthwhile to any economy but
may be particularly attractive to developing countries that suffer from acute
shortage of capital. The growth in energy demand in developing countries requires
enormous amounts of foreign exchange, both to invest in power stations and
infrastructure and to buy imported fuels. This in itself has an environmental
impact, since one way of earning foreign exchange is to increase shares of good
agricultural land to be turned into cash export crops. This in turn leads to
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cultivation of increasingly marginal land for growing staple food supplies, and to
progressive erosion of soils and eventual desertification. It is evident that develop
ing countries have an advantage over industrialized countries, in that investment in
new efficient technology is typically much cheaper than retrofitting old plants. It is
therefore important that the expansion of developing economies, especially the
introduction of new industries, is based on the latest technology available, bypass-
ing the inefficient and wasteful technologies that have been used in industrialized
countries.
Scheraga (1994) points out numerous examples of negative environmental
externalities associated with energy use: greenhouse gas emissions that contribute
to global climate change, environmental damage due to the process of extracting
energy resources from the ground, and competition for water between hydropower
and other uses (e.g., agriculture and recreational activities) and associated damage
to water quality. Externalities other than environmental impacts may also exist,
such as the national security concerns that arise from increasing dependence on
foreign oil.
It is obvious that energy conservation reduces the environmental impact from
several energy systems. In addition to reducing environmental damage, conserva-
tion will enhance the reliability of future energy supplies. By slowing the rate of
growth of energy demand, we can improve the longevity of our supplies, allowing
more flexibility in developing systems for meeting long-term energy needs. There is
tremendous potential for conservation at both the energy production and consump-
tion stages. For example, only about 30% of the oil in a reservoir is extracted from
onshore wells; offshore extraction is somewhat more efficient. As the price of
crude oil rises, more extensive use of secondary recovery techniques (e.g., flooding,
thermal stimulation), which conserve oil resources and reduce some of the damage
of oil extraction, will become evident. Another example is that in deep mining of
coal, less than 60% of the resource in place is recovered and more than 10% of the
energy in coal can be lost in cleaning. Briefly, much of the environmental damage
from our use of energy comes from systems that provide energy to the consumer. If
the systems for providing energy were to function more efficiently, then the
adverse environmental effects of energy production would be reduced: Similarly, if
the consumer were to use energy more efficiently, that is, if he could expend less
energy while achieving his desired ends, then both energy production and environ-
mental damage will be reduced.
446 I. Dincer
Recently, the term efficiency has been used in at least two different ways,
namely, first-law efficiency and second-law efficiency. The former, which merely
reflects the standard laws of energy conservation, is defined as the ratio of useful
energy output to total energy output, for any process. For chains of processes such
that the output of one is the input of the next, first-law efficiencies are multiplica-
tive.
'The laws of thermodynamics allow a sufficiently accurate description of the
impact of conservation measures on energy production and consumption. In
thermodynamics, it is often convenient to consider a hypothetical body sufficiently
great in size that it can supply or absorb finite amounts of heat without undergoing
any change in temperature. Such a body is called a thermal energy reservoir. In
practice, large bodies of water such as oceans, lakes, and rivers as well as the
atmosphere can be modeled accurately as thermal energy reservoirs. For instance,
the atmosphere does not warm up as a result of heat losses from residential
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Table 5
Typical constituents of fossil fuels, and the products of combustion
Fuel Substitution
Substituting fuels to further the achievement of environmental objectives has
involved the following: (1) permanent shifts to energy alternatives (e.g., from fossil
fuels to nuclear or renewable energy sources); (2) temporay fuel switching to
minimize seasonal or short-term environmental impacts (e.g., from gasoline to
natural gas); and/or (3) the use of higher quality (less polluting) forms of the same
fuel (e.g., from high- to low-sulfur coal). More recently, the growing recognition of
environmental problems has affected fuel choices. In order to determine the
comparative effects on the environment of different fuel choices, it is imperative to
look at the fuel cycle and the environmental impacts at all stages (International
Energy Agency, 1989). Reddy (1995) indicated that urbanization is a growing trend
in the developing countries and that rising urban energy demand has to be
addressed as part of national development plans. However, this cannot be done
without understanding the fuel shifts that are taking place, particularly in the
domestic sector.
Notable alterations in fuel choice occurred in the late 1970s, largely as a result
of energy security and environmental objectives explicitly supported by government
policy makers and uncertainty about future fuel costs. The greatest shift took place
in the utility sector and through changes in space heating of residential and
commercial buildings. The observed shifts in the industrial sector were less marked
and often were the result of structural changes and not of fuel substitution. Both
siting constraints and a number of fuel use restrictions played some part. Here, we
present some details and specific information on substituting fuels.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is preferable to coal and oil in terms of SO, and particulate matter.
There is therefore some interest in substituting natural gas for coal in power
Energy and Environmental Impacts 449
Table 6
Substances emitted from coal, petroleum, and natural gas sources
co2 X X X
co X X
NO, X X X
so2 X X
CH4 X X X
HCl x
steps have already been taken to promote natural gas, primarily for energy security
reasons.
Nuclear Energy
Because of the greenhouse effect from burning fossil fuels, along with acid rain
and air pollution, nuclear energy was considered a new opportunity, and some
environmentalists have even begun to view nuclear power in a more favorable way.
On the other hand, its political acceptability has been doubtful. While those in the
industry are convinced that nuclear power is safe, the general public remains far
from convinced. In the past, nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl have proved the
nuclear advocates wrong, and the long-term effects of these accidents are still
being felt. Along with the risks associated with plants while they are operating and
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their regular discharges of low-level waste, the long-term problem of waste disposal
remains unsolved.
It is expected that the growth rate of nuclear energy generated by the
industrialized countries will continuously decrease up to the early 21st century
because of cost, regulatory and pricing regimes, long design and construction times,
and environmental and safety concerns. Many countries have abandoned nuclear
power programs, have put them on hold, or have stated long-term plans to
eliminate nuclear power from their fuel bases. As mentioned earlier, it is expected
that nuclear energy production, currently equivalent to 450 Mtoe yr-' will grow by
about 1.5% to 2010, and will fall slightly to 200 Mtoe in the 21st century. It is well
known that one of the strongest arguments driving a revival of nuclear energy is
the fact that it can substitute for fossil fuels and reduce their most undesirable
environmental impacts, such as acid precipitation and potential for C0,-induced
climate change. While many environmentalists argue that conservation is prefer-
able, the role of nuclear energy in mitigating the greenhouse effect has become an
undeniable issue worldwide. Therefore it is important to examine the necessary
conditions for a significant nuclear revival.
Hydropower
Hydropower, which is a clean and renewable energy source with enormous poten-
tial, will continue to increase, especially in developing countries, but its growth will
slow as options become more costly and/or more distant from major markets, and
as environmental protection is given high priority. It is projected that hydro energy
will rise to the equivalent of 1000 Mtoe yr-' by 2050. It is clear that hydroelectric-
ity brings its own problems, e.g., enormous unused capacity and ecological damage.
In tropical climates the creation of large hydro lakes is associated with increases in
water-borne diseases such as bilharzia. Also, the flooding of large areas of land
inevitably means the destruction of agricultural land and/or tropical rain forest
and, often, the displacement of large populations. For example, over 1 million
people were displaced because of the Ataturk dam project in Turkey-the third
largest dam in the world. But hydropower is a mature technology, and the largest
exploited resources are now in the developing countries. Consequently, increasing
political pressure from environmentally concerned groups on funding organizations
(e.g., World Bank) make it unlikely that large hydro schemes will receive much
support.
Energy and Environmental Impacts 451
Renewable Energy
The main renewable energy resources are biomass, solar, wind, geothermal, wave,
and small hydro, and the renewable energy technologies produce marketable
energy by converting natural phenomena into useful energy forms. These technolo-
gies utilize the energy inherent in sunlight and its direct and indirect impacts on
Earth (photons, wind, falling water, heating effects, and plant growth), gravitational
forces (the tides), and the heat of Earth's core (geothermal) as the resources from
which they produce energy. These resources represent an energy potential that is
incredibly massive, dwarfing that of equivalent fossil resources, and hence their
magnitude has no key constraints on energy production. However, they are
generally diffuse and not fully accessible, some are intermittent, and all have
distinct regional variabilities. These aspects give rise to difficult, but solvable,
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Conclusions
Methods are available for reducing environmental pollutant emissions from the use
of energy resources. This reduction will be offset by the predicted increase in the
requirements for energy. The implementation of the required methods has so far
been generally governed by the market forces based on the price of energy.
Recently, there have been moves to prohibit or constrain various emissions. Aside
from environmental implications, some renewables have reached the stage where
they are economically viable. The extraction of energy from wastes is now an
established technology. The availability and use of natural gas, which is a clean
premium fuel, lead not only to reduction in chemical emissions by substitution for
other fuels, but also allows the employment of much improved energy-efficient
systems. Thus improved energy efficiency worldwide and incentives to use renew-
ables are the key elements of a global energy strategy aimed at reducing CO,
emissions. For this reason, a coordinated attack on the world's energy problem is
essential if environmental impacts are to be contained.
Energy consumption continues to increase. Energy efficiency and conservation
can offer the potential for rapid improvements in the level of pollution and CO,
emissions. Admittedly, most of the actual measurements need to be carried out by
consumers rather than by governments, and there is also a useful role for other
bodies in educating consumers about the need for energy efficiency and conserva-
tion and the benefits it will bring. There remains an important role that can most
effectively, if not solely, be played by governments. The areas for government
action fall under the following main areas: more research and development into
methods of energy efficiency and conservation, immediate implementation of
energy efficiency and conservation techniques, and promotion of renewable energy
sources.
Over the next several decades, it is expected that the use of renewable energy
technologies will greatly expand as these technologies mature, as the cost of
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