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Using R to Generate Regression Equation. The regression plot below also indicates
that there is a linear relationship between the
The following keyboard approach of
changes in the fair value of the derivative and those
inputting data file into R can be used to read our
of the underlying instrument.
data file.
Derivative <-c (500, 800, -2500,-1000, 2000, -1000,-
500, 2440, 1000, -3400, 2000, -1150, 900, -1800,
2000, 1000)
Hedged_Item <- c (-600, -800, 2800, 900, -2200,
1000, 3000, -2000, -3000, 3000, -2000, 1000, -950,
2000, - 2000, - 1100)
Once the data are read into the software,
we can use the following codes to generate the
correlation coefficient and the regression plot.
#It is of the form linear model = lm
(Independent_Variable~Dependent_Variable)
lm.r = lm(Hedged_Item~Derivative)
summary(lm.r)
Criteria for predicting effectiveness:
plot(Derivative,Hedged_Item)
R2 should be equal or greater than 80%.
abline(lm.r) The slope should be between -0.80 and -
When we run the above code we get the 1.25
result documented in the table below. Note that Results:
the actual R screenshot generated after the code is
R2 = 82.6 > 80%
processed is different from the one shown below
Slope = -0.80 > -1.0493 >-1.25
but for presentation purposes the important
statistics have been manually entered into the table Based on the above, we can conclude that the
beow: hedging arrangement will be highly effective in
offsetting fluctuations in the fair value or cashflow Period Derivative Hedged Derivative
of the underlying item. -∆ Item - ∆ +
The major drawback of this approach is that Hedged
sometimes a large set of data points is required to Item
achieve effectiveness. It is also manually and 01/01/Y1 0 0 0
computationally intensive because market rates and
Y1Q1 500 -600 -100
fair values (including deltas) have to be generated
for each data point. Fortunately, there are third Y1Q2 800 -800 0
party tools that can be used to calculate the values Y1Q3 -2500 2800 300
more efficiently.
Y1Q4 -1000 900 -100
Although we have used the regression test to
Y2Q1 2000 -2200 -200
perform a prospective test in this case, it can also
be used for retrospective tests. Y2Q2 -1000 1000 0
Volatility Risk Reduction Method Y2Q3 -500 3000 2500
The Volatility Risk Reduction Method Y2Q4 2440 -2000 440
(VRR) compares the standard deviation of the
Y3Q1 1000 -3000 -2000
variability of the fair value or cashflow of the
hedged position (derivative and underlying item) to Y3Q2 -3400 3000 -400
the standard deviation of the variability of the fair Y3Q3 2000 -2000 0
value or cashflow of the hedged position alone.
Y3Q4 -1150 1000 -150
The VRR test can be performed using the formula
below: Y4Q1 900 -950 -50
VRR = 1-(σ (hedged item + derivative)/σ Y4Q2 -1800 2000 200
(hedged item)) where σ = standard deviation.
Y4Q3 2000 -2000 0
The main advantage of the VRR method is
Y4Q4 1000 -1100 -100
that it takes into account standard deviation; hence,
it is consistent with Value-at-Risk (VaR). However, σ of Values 2025.60 849.37
when using the VRR method, a correlation of Ratio of σ (849.37/2025) 0.42
greater than eighty percent (80%) is hard to achieve
VRR = 1 - σ (849.37/2025) 0.58
hence a correlation of greater than forty percent
(40%) is usually considered to indicate high
effectiveness. An example is illustrated below: As shown above the VRR is fifty-eight
percent (58%) which is greater than our threshold
of forty percent (40%), hence the hedging
arrangement can be considered to be highly
effective. The threshold of forty percent (40%) is
different from the 80/125 rule prescribed by the
accounting standards, however, it is very difficult to
achieve that band using the VRR method.
Therefore, consult with your auditors/accountants
before implementing this approach. Based on our
research however, this approach has been
successfully implemented by some companies.
Dollar-Offset or Ratio Analysis Method
This is the most commonly retrospective
effectiveness testing methodology regardless of
which method is used for prospective testing.
However, it is not a well-developed statistical
testing technique because it may fail the
effectiveness testing criteria of 80/125 in periods of
stability, that is, in periods when the changes in the
fair value or cashflow of the derivative and hedged
item are not significant. Hence, it is better to use
the cumulative changes in the fair value or cashflow Scenario Analysis Method (Monte Carlo)
of the variables to avoid this major pitfall. This method is used for prospective testing
This method simply divides in the changes and it uses the simulation approach to determine
in the fair value of the hedging instrument by the the effectiveness of the hedging arrangement. It
changes in the fair value of the underlying basically tests the market factors or rates used to
instrument in order to arrive at a ratio. The calculate the fair value of the derivative and hedged
formula for calculating the Dollar-Offset Ratio item under different plausible scenarios. The
(DOR) is as follows: method uses different market factors and considers
both movements along the yield curve and also
DOR = - Change in fair value of hedging
parallel shifts in the yield curve. A common
instrument/Change in fair value of hedged item.
method used in implementing this method is the
An example of this method is shown below: Monte Carlo approach using very large data set.
A major drawback of the approach is that it
is computationally intensive and assumes a level of
sophistication on the part of the entity using it.
All the methods considered so far are
quantitative in nature albeit with different level of
complexity. Let us now examine the qualitative
techniques.
Critical Terms Method
This method is used to test effectiveness on
a prospective basis only. If the principal terms of
the hedging instrument and of the hedged asset,
liability, firm commitment or highly probable each net settlement. (That is, the fixed rate
forecast transaction are the same, the changes in is the same throughout the term, and the
variable rate is based on the same index and
fair value and cashflow attributable to the risk being
includes the same constant adjustment or
hedged may be likely to offset each other fully, no adjustment.)
both when the hedge is entered into and afterwards. The interest-bearing asset or liability is not
Even if there is a match in the critical terms of the prepayable.
underlying and the derivative, an organization is Any other terms in the interest-bearing
financial instruments or interest rate swaps
still required to establish that the hedge is effective
are typical of those instruments and do not
on a retrospective basis using a different method. invalidate the assumption of no
The following are the key requirements that must ineffectiveness.
be present before this method can be used for Though, we have listed a handful of the
effectiveness testing: requirements for implementing this technique,
The notional amount of the derivative is there are other requirement too numerous to
equal to the notional amount of the hedged list, therefore, organizations interested in
item. implementing this method are encouraged to
The maturity of the derivative equals the refer to paragraph 68 of SFAS 133.
maturity of the hedged position.
The underlying of the derivative matches Other Important Concepts
the underlying hedged risk.
The fair value of the derivative is zero at Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA)
inception. An important consideration in the
calculation of fair value measurement is the
Short-Cut Method recognition of counterparty credit risk – relevant
This method is similar to the critical-terms accounting standards now require the inclusion of
method but it is not yet allowed under IAS 39. It the impact of counterparty credit risk in fair
can only be used in limited cases involving interest valuations.
rate swaps. When this method is used, CVA is simply the difference between the
effectiveness is automatically assumed and there is risk-free portfolio value and the true portfolio that
no need to perform effectiveness testing on both a takes into account the possibility of counterparty’s
retrospective or prospective basis hence saving a lot default. In other words, CVA is the market value
of documentation work. Essentially when using of counterparty credit risk. Hence, organizations
this method, a company is assuming no should evaluate that CVAs are captured in the fair
ineffectiveness. The following criteria are required value measurements used in effectiveness testing.
before this method can be used;
Embedded Derivative
The notional amount of the swap matches
the principal amount of the interest-bearing A derivative may be embedded within
asset or liability. another contract known as the host contract. If the
The fair value of the swap at its inception is host contract is not already been marked to market
zero. with changes taken into earnings, then the
The formula for computing net settlements derivative should be bifurcated from the host
under the interest rate swap is the same for
contract separately fair valued. An example of an
embedded derivative is call option or conversion any direct way to test this but it is important to be
feature in a hybrid bond instrument. In evaluating aware of the technical jargon.
whether a host contract has an embedded Hypothetical Derivative
derivative or not, an organization review the
contract for the financial instrument and determine When dealing with very complex
whether the contract contains clauses that meets instruments (a bond with multiple embedded
the definition of a derivative under IAS 39 or FAS optionalities for instance) it may be very difficult to
133. achieve effectiveness, hence, at inception, a
company may designate a hypothetical derivative
An illustration of how to bifurcate the fair that is opposite the one entered to hedge the
value of an embedded derivative from a host economics of an underlying as the instrument that
contract is shown below – note that an expert may will used for assessing effectiveness.
have to be consulted to value the embedded
optionality: Risk Management & Control Considerations