FOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, ene LONG-TERM TRENDS [3-year averages amese 201921 2022.24 Popaation (niin 8 saa 29 {SDP (uso by zea ‘SDP reap (uSO) wwe ure 7287 {DP grown) 230002330 Fiscal Barc f GOP 26 3a Prble Debt (3 GDP) 2. meat Imtaten 23000 27a ‘usrert Acsunt (ot GOP 230 282k Exemal Deb (% of GOP) os sass Nicolas J. Aguilar Economist Ecanemie Growth (change n GOP forecasts avanawans om eu oe gute-a4 aa forearm sa 8 men. Ineaton ‘Change ina forecasts iwavenanan Scam ee CConamer Pica ldox(Ch melon aan! 270 a 2021 Veron 01 2018-04220, faa aungte et 18 moh Chile Outlook worsens ‘The economy is inthe midst ofa rocky fourth quarteras President Sebastian Pinera's efforts to quell the protests that have engulfed the country since mid-October have so far proved unsuccessful. Amid the upheav government proposed a rewriting of the constitution, while Congress ‘approved a revised 2020 budget that ramps up public expenditure on Pensions, healthcare and transport, and is projected to push the fiscal deficit to 2.9% of GDP from a previously planned 2.0% of GDP. Although this should provide a temporary boost o private consumption, itis not clear if higher public expenditure alone will defuse the protests, while business ‘confidence could be hit by heightened uncertainties surrounding a new constitution. Available data since the start of the turbulence has been bleak, with economic activity contracting forthe frst ime in two and a half years in October. This markedly contrasts the third quarter's expansion, which saw the economy growing at the fastest pace of the year thanks to blistering fied investment growth and a rebound in exports. Growth prospects have deteriorated since the wake of the protests in October, with a majority of panelists subsequently revising down their projections for 2020, While fiscal concessions should boost private ‘consumption, fixed investment will likely stall as uncertainties weigh on business confidence. In addition, public debt is seen rising on a wider fiscal deficit. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2% in 2020, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, ‘and 2.8% in 2021 Inflation jumped to 2.5% in October (September: 2.1%), marking a 410-month high and nearing the midpoint of the 2.0%~4.0% target band {as the rots disrupted the economy. Although weakened demand could moderate price pressures ahead, the sharp depreciation of the peso and protracted unrest pose upside risks to inflation. Our panel expects inflation to end 2020 at 2.8%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast, and 2021 at 2.9%, Al its 22-23 October meeting, the Central Bank axed the key benchmark rate by 25 basis points to an over nine-year low of 1.75%, amid subdued inflation. The next December meeting, which the Bank brought forward by two days, is Ikely to maintain its dovish bias ahead amid downside risks to growth stemming from the recent wave of protests. The Consensus projects the policy rate to end 2020 at 1.40% and 2021 at 2.07%. Social unrest continued to heavily weigh on the peso in recent weeks, despite a brief respite prompted by the Central Bank’s intervention on 14 November. On 29 November, CLP traded at 805, a 9.6% depreciation from the same day last month. Going forward, most analysts expect the peso will recover somewhat thanks to the country’s strong fundamentals. Our panelists expect the peso to end 2020 at 749 CLP per USD and 2021 at 721 CLP per USD, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast [53FOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, ‘Gross Domestic Product | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economy expands at the fastest pace this year in Q3 Growth clocked in at 3.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, accelerating from the second quarter's 1.9% increase and marking the fastest expansion so far this year. The upturn was broad-based and came largely in line with market expectations. Domestic activity gained traction in the third quarter, Private consumption growth firmed up following a downturn in the previous quarter (Q3: +3.0% year-on-year; Q2: +2.4% yoy), chiefly thanks to a notable increase in services ‘consumption, which more than offset weaker consumption of durable goods. On top of that, fixed investment continued to gather momentum and increased at the swiftest pace in four years in the third quarter (Q3: +5.9% yoy; Q2: +#5.3% yoy), supported by booming investment activity in the construction sector. Lastly, annual growth in public spending remained unchanged at the previous quarter's 1.9% in Q3. On the extemal front, operating conditions also improved in the third quarter. Exports rebounded following two consecutive months of contraction (C3: #+1.2% yoy; Q2: -3.4% yoy), amid an uptum in copper production, which buoyed overall exports, Meanwhile, imports contracted again in the third quarter, although the deciine was less sharp than in the second quarter (Q3: “1.8% yoy; Q2: -3.5% yoy). As a result, the external sector's contribution to growth improved considerably in Q3. Looking at the industry-level performance, the third-quarter uptum was similarly broad-based. Mining GDP increased 1.4% year-on-year in 3, “which was up from the 0.2% uptick recorded in Q2 and marked the strongest expansion since Q2 2018. Furthermore, non-mining GOP growth jumped to 3.6% annually in Q3, from 2.1% in Q2. (On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted basis, GOP rose 0.7% in 03, ‘matching the previous quarter's outturn, Looking forward, growth prospects forthe Chilean economy have deteriorated significantly since mid-October, when widespread protests and riots erupted over deep-rooted socio-economic inequality, fueling the biggest political crisis since the country retumed to democracy. Consequently, shoriterm growth prospects have dampened considerably, while uncertainty is elevated over the country’s political and economic course going forward. With regards to the impact of the protests on GDP growth going forward, Diego W. Pereira and Lucila Barbeito, analysts at JPMorgan, nated: “In our estimates, potential GDP would be lower both in 2020 and 2021. Some months ago the BCCh revised potential GDP higher, mainly on the back of the immigration impact on the labor market, to 3.4% for 2020 and 2021. But following the social unrest shock, we believe potential GDP should be revised lower. We work under the assumption of potential GDP at 2.2% and 2.6% for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Note that despite the hefty reduction to the potential GDP gauge, the output gap would widen a bit in 2020, starting to narrow in 2021 (by then we estimate GDP growth at 3.0%y/) In its September assessment, the Central Bank saw the economy expanding between 2.8%-3.8% in 2020 and between 3.0%-4.0% in 2021 LatinFocus Consensus ForecastFOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, Economic Activity | variation in % Consumer Confidence FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 2.2% in 2020, down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, For 2021 they expect the economy to grow 28%. REAL SECTOR | Economic activity crashes to over-decade low in October on country-wide protests In October, the IMACEC economic activity Index contracted 3.4% on an annual basis, contrasting September's 3.0% expansion and marking the lowest print since June 2009, October's slump was chiefly driven by a 4.0% dive in the nonemining economy, which contrasted the 3.6% expansion logged a month prior, as civil unrest routed supply chains and hampered demand across the service, manufacturing and commerce sectors, Conversely, the mining economy rebounded by 2.0%, after contracting 1.6% in September. In month-or-month seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity fell 5.4% ‘over the previous month in October, following September's 0.5% contraction. In view of October's result, Daniela Velandia, analyst at Credicorp Capital noted "We expect social unrest to continue affecting economic growth in the upcoming months as activity in several sectors has not returned to full normaly yet and the agenda of the government has changed, This, together with the disappointing Oct-19 data, means that itis highly likely that 4019 GDP growth will be negative, which in turn would lead 2019 economic growth to stand below our current 1.7% forecast” ‘OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment falls to three-year low in October The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index fell to 36.7 points in October, the lowest print since October 2016, from 38.6 points in September, thus falling further below the critical 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among Chilean consumers. October's detailed estimate showed that consumers’ current conditions and future prospects deteriorated. Chileans were more pessimistic about both the ‘country’s current situation and their current personal conditions. Meanwhile, their outlook of the country’s stability in the next five years plunged deeper into negative territory, while their willingness to purchase big ticket household items also deteriorated further. In contrast, consumers’ prospects of the country's economic conditions over the next year improved, although they remained negative overall Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to grow 2.1% in 2020, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2021, the panel expects private consumption to grow 2.8%, OUTLOOK | Business confidence falls to record-low in November amid wide spread protests The business confidence index (IMCE), published by ICARE and the Adolfo Ibafez University, plummeted to 36.6 points in November, contrasting the previous month's §1.5 points results and marking the lowest print in the series history. As a result, the index dived below the crucial 50-point threshold that LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 55FOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, Business Confidence aetta Nom dueraes Corres aes MCE, nes Meal Contes Emenee eens cpra pao bso Ene Inftation | Consumer rice index Nom Youre mary tin of puree int separates pessimism from optimism among the Chilean businesses. The downturn reflected heightened uncertainties stemming from civil unrests that has rocked the country since mid-October and the proposed rewriting of the ‘country’s constitution, All four subcomponents ofthe index fell markedly in November. Confidence in the commerce sector tumed pessimistic, while confidence in the construction and industrial sectors fell deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, although sentiment in the mining sector fel significantly it remained in positive territory Panelists surveyed for this month's LatinFocus report project fixed investment to expand 1.3% in 2020, which is down 2.6 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2021, they project itto grow 3.4%. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to 10-month high in October Consumer prices rase 0.8% in October, after seeing no growth in September. According to the national statistical institute, prices for housing and transport saw the largest increases. Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 0.5%, up from 0.1% in September. Inflation logged 2.5% in October, accelerating from September's 2.1% and ‘marking the highest print since December 2018. Similarly, core inflation rose to 2.6% (September: 2.3%). In response to the jump in inflation, which largely reflected supply shocks caused by protests, the Central Bank brought their meeting forward to 6 December, Annual average inflation, meanwhile, came in at 2.2%, marginally below September's 2.3%. Reflecting on the path of monetary policy ahead analysts at Credicorp Capital noted “The discussion on the future path of monetary policy remains both challenging and interesting. Overall, most part of the analysts have changed their mind from expecting further rate cuts as soon as this week to project, rnot movements in the upcoming months. It has been mainly explained by the sharp CLP depreciation that led the BCCh to intervene directly in the FX spot ‘market forthe fist time since 2011." In their September's assessment the Central Bank projected year-end inflation of 2.8% in 2020 and of 3.0% in 2021. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2020 at 2.8%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast, and at 2.9% in 2021, Meanwiile, the current Consensus is for the Central Bank's policy rate to remain broadly unchanged in the near-term, ending 2020 at 1.40% and 2021 at 2.07%. MONETARY SECTOR | Peso dives to a new record low as civil turmoil persists in November Capital outfiows drove the Chilean peso to an all-time low in November, as protests showed no signs of abating. On 28 November, the peso ended the day at 805 per USD, a 9.62% depreciation from the same day in October, The result marked a 13.8% depreciation year-to-date and a 16.7% loss from the same day last year. LatinFocus Consensus ForecastFOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, Exchange Rato [CLP per USD asker on waite Wah Nom only sat exchange af Ca pot (CLP a ‘Copper Price | USD per Lb. Sac tan Exar ‘After the Central Bank's intervention on 14 November brought a brief respite, the peso continued to depreciate in recent weeks as the prospects of prolonged uncertainty stemming from the drafting of a new constitution and cooling economic activity dampened investors’ sentiment. On 28 November, the Central Bank thus announced a USD 20 billion injection, the largest intervention since 1999, through swap and repo operations between 2 December and 24 May 2020, While the decision is certain to erode the country’s USD 39:5 billion worth of foreign currency reserves, itis not clear ‘whether it wll stem the peso's plunge. With regard to the Central Bank's intervention, analysts at JPMorgan noted: “The stress the peso is suffering obeys to stability considerations amid a protracted scenario of social unrest and street violence, which has prompted an abrupt portfolio repositioning against the backdrop of the pronounced stress and uncertainty. Thus, should the uncertainty extend further, the idea of BCCh sacrificing half of the reserves stock could exacerbate financial pressures. Yet, the low gross and net indebtedness of the public sector should be addressed ‘when entertaining the actual macroeconomic buffers of the economy. For ‘example, the low gross debt level allows the country to quickly negotiate an FCL line with the IMF so to engross the level of gross FX reserves. (Our panel sees the peso recovering going forward. As it stands, they see the currency ending 2020 at 749 per USD and 2021 at 721 per USD. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices pick up in November Copper prices gained some ground in November, buoyed by optimism over a U.S-China trade deal. On average, prices for the red metal logged USD 2.66 per pound (equivalent to USD 5,860 per ton), up from October's average price of USD 2.61 per pound (equivalent to 5,757 per ton). However, prices ‘were 5.4% lawer than in the same month last year and down 1.3% on a year- to-date basis. Copper prices gained some ground in recent weeks following Donald Trump's announcement on 26 November that ‘phase one” ofatrade deal wth Chinawas near completion. In addition, supply-side constraints in Chile likely supported prices over the past month, as the top copper producer struggled to quell ‘country-wide protests, Prices, however, slipped at the end of November after, diplomatic support from the U.S. to Hong Kong cast doubt on a preliminary resolution ofthe trade war with China. The evolution of the U.S.-China trade negotiations will continue to shape the outlook for copper, with price volatility stemming from sudden animosity between the two countries likely to persist in the short-run. The medium-term outlook looks brighter, however, as refined production lags behind usage, ‘amid limited production capacity and increasing demand for copper in new technologies such as electric vehicles and greeneneray projects. (Our panelists expect copper prices to end 2020 at USD 2.77 per pound and 2021 at USD 2.81 per pound LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 57FOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, Economic Indicators |2015 - 2024 ‘Annual Data 2015 2016 01720182019 2020 021 20222028 2024 Real Sector Population (rion) wo e2 eases aT a8 O_o {SDP per capita (USD) 1360 13788 15.125 15911 14905 14,195 15323 16407 17.202 18,182 ‘30 (USD bn) 205 2502708828525 32a 5 {G0 (CP bn) 4189553 169,470 180211 191249 199.619 209.432 221.587 294.817 249,102 254536 Economie Growth (Nominal GOP, ann.var.%6) «74—=««GZ BSBA AS HOB BOS Economic Growth (GOP, ann. vr.) 23°17 «1340202228 2830 Domest Demand (ann. var 6) 28 18 29 47 19 18 27 28 30 30 “otal Consumption (ann. var. %) 28 34 3207 232k kT 2 Private Consumption (an. var.) 21-260 «30402321228 30k ‘Government Consumoton (ann. var. %) 48072 44 22 24 33,30 282728 Fed Investent ana. var. 8) 03 430 27 47 3813, 340312827 xporis (G&S, an. var. 6) 47005 41 50-4833 32130 Ipods (68S, ann. var.) “10347784505 35323 Manufacturing (ann, var. 6) 08 02 «1028 Ot 30k Reta Sales (ann. va. %) 24 31 464027 2B Unemployment (of active population. 20p) 63 65 66 069737 BBCSO Fiscal Balance (% of GOP) 2127 27 72225220 Public Debt (% of GDP) 73 1035 8827S 82 OOS SSH Monetary and Financial Sector inition (CPI, ann var. %,e00) a a inflation (CPI, ann var. %, 308) 4438222423 283033 Monetary Plcy Rate % 6p) 350 350 250275188 140207288 3.1538 10-Year Bord Viel (,e09), 475427452 445341351382 aat 487 Exchange Rate (CLP per USD. 2p) 70 8705759 T4721 2B TAS T28 Exchange Rate (CLP per USD. 20p) ess 578 A920 TB T3572 T2128 External Sector ‘Gurren Account Bande 9% af GOP) 2S 3228s CGurent Account Balance (USD bn) 37 40 2178 37 75 75 75 Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3449 4449 57 a1 as 89 Merchandise Expo's (USD br) «20 607 TMi 7217852078 ahd Merchandise imports (USD bn) 535 559 oss 6737077597 Merchancise Export (ann. var. %) ama 21 S700 14 80727373 ‘Merchandise imports (ann. var.) sas 47 36 070 52730 «737A ‘Copper Price (USD per 20p) 250 221 2m 27281 2a 2B Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 20 Na BT Intentional Reserves (USD bn) 385405 295 Me 431 a5 Interaional Reserves (months of imports) 7387 741 65 84 ‘dermal Debt (USO bn) i187 193 mem External Debt (% of GDP) 254 687 ers e169 | ‘Quarterly Data 318 asi 0319 220 0320 a420 Economic Growth (GDP, an. vr.) 26 38 33 22002128 Economie Growth (GOP, god .a var. %) oo 14 o7 16044 Domestic Demand (ann var 6) 4445 24 120 142 Private Consumption (an. var 6) 4138 30 19 192 ‘Government Consumption (ann. va. %) 1843 19 Bi 34 a7 Fed Invesment ana. var.) 4258 59 oss 47 Manufacturing (ann, var 6) 04 29 23 te Retail Sales (an, va. %) 2528 09 oft ‘Unemployment (% of active population, 309) 72 88 ts TA 1872 Inflation (CP, ann var, e00) 3128 24 28 3129 Monetary Pelcy Rate (in %, 9p) 250 275 2.00 12 1401.40 10-Year Bond Viel (%, 209), aa 4.45 2.80 349350351 Exchange Rate (CLP per USD. sop) 85363 723 738758749 ‘Curent Account Balance (% of GDP) 430 48 48 25° 34 28 Current Account Balance (USD on) 23 336 32 47230 48 Mrchancise Trade Balance (USD br) 01 3 0% 14 113 Merchancise Expos (USD br) 178192 189 v7 75181 Merchandise imperts (USD bn) 179189 188 162 167 168 Monthly Data Feb-1s Mar-i9 June Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov.t9 Economic Aatity IMACEC, ann var. %) 1a aT 17 300034 Manufacturing (an. var.) os ia 3 24 ot Unemployment (ling quarters, % act. pop.) 8789 7 74 2 Consumer Confidence Index (SOpt threshold) 483423 we 3 3d awa Business Confdence index S0pttheshold) 542 —5AO m2 504 5105075308 tation (CP, mom var.) 0005 oo 02 o2 oo of - Intation (OP, an. var.) 1720 230022023021 Exchange Rate (CLP per USD. cop) ess oat ers 70k 72129742805 ‘Copper Price (USO per 2p) 285 202 2e7 2869259281281 268 Note: Focus conomics Consensus Forecasts re Nghlghed in grey. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 58FOCUSECONOMICS Chite December 2019, Garay RE een 41] Real GOP | 2000-2028 | var in % 2| Real GOP | 1 16-04 20| var In % Real GDP growth in % . . 20202024 25 28 ‘Banchileinversiones 22033 ‘ ‘Banco Bradesco 30 - ‘ Barclays Capital 28 28 Bl 1828 2 BICE Inversiones 1420 BTG Pactual 18047 ° Capital Economics 25 35 « Corprtesearch 2128 —ctie CCrecicorp Capital 20 - Fiat mena DekaBank 28 A 4 awe) g DuckerFrontier 26 2s ‘ooo 200s soto 2018 2020 ‘aris ari7 aria Give arze EU 13018, Euromonitor Int 2831 3160" 2020|evotiton offorecests4/GDP202t| evolution offorecests_‘Fieh Soltons ze 33 "yas 2 - 5 sine 51 vw Gemines 1938 Seeman Stone Golaman Sachs 17 28 Sharman Shine Foo ss ‘ ‘ Inversiones Securty 20 - Pye ita 2900387 IPMorgan 20 30 a "7 ius Baer 30 = Kel Institute 2828 Moody/s Analytics 25 30 2 2 Oxford Economies 2328 poo Pezco Economics 1a 20 Santander 18 - 1 1 ‘Scotiabank 18 30 Jt Gd en fer del Oa J 0a tan Aer al Oa ‘Secale Gétrals ee Standard Chartered 30 30 ‘51 GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution ups 19 oat Summary ~ ‘Minimum 7375 Meximum 30087, Median 22 28 ws Consensus 22 28 History ‘0 days ago 28 _3t 60 days ago 2930 ™ 190 days ago. 3030) ‘Additional Forecasts, ‘Gentral Bank (Sep. 2018) 2383040 IMF (Oct. 2018) 30 32 geen ems ap aan ap ag ON Nov 2018) 22 28 Notes and sources Genera Longe char aro rom 2000 fo 2024 unless otherwise stated, The Latin Amat regional ‘agargste excludes Venezuela, Alea sector data are om the Cental Bark @CCN. Banco {Cnt de Coie) andthe Natonal Stasteal nate (NE. Instat Naclona de Estcatea) Forecast based on LaboFocus Consensus Forecast 4 GOP rea annua variation ne 3 Gor evaton or 200 tect ung ne wa 18 ont 4 bi evalu o 202 recast aunng he bt 18 orb 5 GOP, panast ditto of 2020 forecasts, Concaiation of panels n forcast intrvalin Se Higher cnr wih er aor represen» ge umber panels LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 59FOCUSECONOMICS Chite December 2019, mics See ‘Consumption and investment Consumption Investment variation In % variation in % Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 200 Banchile Inversiones 20 35 20 45 Barclays Capital 19 24 62 62 Bel 20 28 42 24 BICE Inversiones os 23 53 19 Capital Economies 35 40 35 40 ‘CorpResearch 19 - 44 - Cresicorp Capital 20 5 17 Ei DuckerFrontier 33 27 - : EIU 20 os 24 17 Euromonitor Int 28 341 - - Fitch Solutions 30 33 38 37 Fynsa 19 - 12 - ‘Gemines 06 34 43 50 ‘Goldman Sachs 18 24 18 35 HSBC 28 35 34 50 Inversiones Secunty 20 . 20 - Moody's Analytics og 23 39 48 ‘Oxford Economics 29 27 os 27 Pazco Economics - 5 24 14 Santander 20 - 08 - ‘Scotiabank 24 30 40 40 Société Générale 24 29 26 33 UBS. 24 34 25 35 ‘Summary Minmum. 08 08 =o 8 Maximum 35 40 62 62 Median 20 29 18 36 Consensus 2A 28 13 34 History 30 days ago 30 at 38 a3 60 days ago) a4 30 42 44 90 days ago, 32 34 45 43 Notes and sources, Long-term ona para rom 200022024 unas otherwise stated. The Lath America eponal aggrepate exces Venezuela. Al real soctr Sta aro torn tha Cerial Bank (BCC, Banco Conral do Chie). Frecass bated on UtnFocus Consoraus Forecat {8 Prvateconsumpton annual variation in 2 1 Prvate consumption evolution ot 2020 and 202 fracsta dung te las 18 monte {Grose fuedivestment annual variation 18 Grost fue ivestmentevaiten of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during hee 18 mont 6 | Consumption | variation in % 2 Latin eves "2000 7005 20 Eran) | Consumption | evolution of fest a 20 a 0a ton Apr lO {8 | Investment | variation in % 0 Whe ‘2008 2005 2510 2018 7020 8 [Investment | evol of forecasts o wal Od Jan Aor kl Oot LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 60FOCUSECONOMICS December 2019, RE 10 | Unemployment |% of active pop. Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt " Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of active pop. % of GDP % of GOP Individual Forecasts 2020 20120202021 20202021, ‘Banchile Inversiones 76 687 zi ~ a8 28S . Barclays Capital - - 22-2385 300 BCI z 2 33 34 ee HS BICE Inversiones 89 oa - : - - Capital Economies 70 70-30-27 8000 ; CorpResearch - - 22 - - - Credicorp Capital 100 = 30 = 380 a DekaBank 78 - 42 - 284 : ele DuckerFronter 68 67 B 5 5 5 tate en et 69 6828238 "2000 2005 3010 2075 2030 Euromonitor Int. 64 62-24 5 z z ich Solutions | - - 400-1293 309 Gemines 79 a4 35-34 2431.0 11 | Fiscal Balance |% of GOP Goldman Sachs - - 25-25 a8 308 : HBC 5 = 24 20 3 zi Inversiones Security 92 - 42 = 3h : Itai Unibanco 75 = 23 5 3 zi a JPMorgan - - 28 : : : Moody’ Analytics 73 70-2200 142828 Oxtord Economics 67 65-2220 31 . Pezco Economics 5 - 24 2687289 ‘Santander 34 = 32 = 300 - Scotiabank 78 75-2925 5 z 4 Société Générale 70 87-19-18 2a ups 72 690-4982 nite Summa 4 Lota anede Minimum oa e242 34 ___m64___27a 2009 2008 20102012029 Maximum 10.0 ea 40 41-330 322 Median 7s 69-2323 008 Consensus 76 TA 28 3 230A 42) Fiscal Balance evol offorecasts Histor 30 days ago or e781? —~SCOTSSCB 08 60 days ago, 68 68-1818 27828 90 days ago 69 68 ATS OTT 28.0 aa 20 sul Oa an fpr ul Om 13 Puble Debt | % of GDP Notes and sources Langerm ena periatom 200002024 unless ctarwise sat, The Latn Amaro eganal agoregete excludes Venezuela, [Alea sector dla are fom the Natonal StatstealInstute (NE, Institue Naconal de Estedlstcas) and DIPRES (Dveccén {e Prosupuescs. See blow fr deat. Forocasis based on LalinFocus Consensus Forecast {10 Unemployment % of acve pop ute INE. 11 Balance of non fnancia publ sector a8 % of GOP. Source: DIPRES, 42 Balance of orinaneal publ sector as % of CD®,evoliton of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 8 mont, 45 Publ debt oa of GOP, Source: DIPRES, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast [61FOCUSECONOMICS Chile December 2019, een need Consumer Prices 44 ntation|2000- 2024 % Consumer Prices Consumer Prices (ann. var-in% 609) (ann arn % 209) Indvial Forecasts azo" 201 2020 "2001 aor Za 2a 5 5 Banc versiones 3030 : ~ Is Banco Bradesco 30 2 : 5 Barays Capital 28027 - - scl 28288 : BTG Pactual 3030 = |e Capt Economies 35s 5 = Corpesearen 2930 : : on redicore Capital 28 - 28 E Can ern DekaBank - ar ~ |e DuckerFronir 5 5 8b 3a She ae ao ae a BW : = 22 4a Euromonterirt z > 252s Fitch Soutens 27 a0 : ~ sation fat 16.0620 | ne fy 29 zi : 5 ‘Gemines 33 26 33 28 " Goldman Sachs 27 3.0 28 29 ene psec 22 302728 tam tn Inversiones Security 29 - 29 a ® tad Unban 3030 : : sPiorgan 250 at 2628 Julius Baer - - 3.0 - . Kel nstite 29 30280 Moody Araytes 222902828 tor Economies i Parco Economics 2728 * s Sortander 25 ~ 30 : Scutabank 28 3030, 30 Sa cain : 0 BS twain erw are orm Standard Charred - - 2928 teal 29-28 2828s ataon 2020 [avon of fent winerum nn Maximum 3500353 — Median 283002828 =e ‘Consensus 28 29 28 3.0 as) “mn History 30 cays avo ze 7338 28 20 cays 250 2800292829 ag 90 days ago. 28 28 28 29 f{\——~~_ Adatlonal Forecasts ‘entra Bank (Se. 2075) Ze—a0—737 5 IM (Oct. 2019) 29° «302880 1 orn (CAF (Now 2019) 2730 Ga ae Ae i oe 47 ntation 202 |vetionottest a Notes and sources 20 (orate ai ars on 200 ab wen ere are at Ae eae LVN yoo exes Venere, monty aes aa fore Nata Ste as tts (NE str Nona esnonea Fossa a boston toes Corser Trt sn vatn corset pend) 69) 18 Conant srl wernn cone x non Cm (2 2 48 ntaion evokon 9 2020 forecasts during nea 18 mont {7 laton,evolton 02021 forecasts during he as 13 mont Ju Oa ion Apr du oa LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 62Focus:coNoMICs chite December 2018 Lele hack ccoll Rlbbtheteh dl 18 Interest Rat |2000 -2024|In'% 18 ntrestRate [a1 16-06 20] in% Interest Rate | Policy Rate Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 hile - AGPV 2.00 2.00 tate Americ bain America Banchile Inversiones 1.50 4.75 ® 2 Barclays Capital 150225 Bel 400 180 BICE Inversiones 100180 . . 7G Pactual 475175 Capital Economics 125 200 Corpesearch 450 - “ ‘ Cresiorp Capt 425 zi =“ Fitch Solutions 1502.25 480 = ° ° 200 280, “oo asks 010 ave 2003 Site arm ore arte are joo 280 ts 175 28 Int Rate 2020 ovoltonoffest_ 24 It Rate 2021 volition offest____Inversiones Secunty 150 tad Unbanco ts 275 JPMergen 125 5 Pezco Eoonomics 450275 ' ‘ Santander 175 5 Seotabank 400200 Socieé Généraie 4100 = vps 400175 s ° ‘Summary Minimo 100750 Maximum 200275 2 —Maerrum 2 ‘Median 1.50 2.00 —ooee Consensus 140207 Meine History. Ji Oa an A ul Oa jit Oa dom Aw sl 08 ogee ate 138 22| Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution $0 says 35° ane 278 Notes and sources Longa chrt pid om 2009 2024 es otervie said The Ltn nec real Sonegi exces veneine. rmortny erase mine Coa ane (OCC enc> Xr Go, Frcaay r bandon atnfacen Coens Forecast ‘rues Coa dane monet poy tn com {8 Guach ert ata Conte Boccia paoy th (00) 28 haat le. von 2300 reat cn he 8 non Hf ies at, voto of 22 recat ng teas 8 on 22 nat ate. gonel! Son f 2000 rca, Concerto of panel i forecast ‘tol n¥ ghar lan er cre orovert lg rue a panel. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 63