ARTICLE IN PRESS

Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464

www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv

The use of wind fields in a land use regression model to predict

air pollution concentrations for health exposure studies
M.A. Araina,, R. Blaira, N. Finkelsteina, J.R. Brookb, T. Sahsuvaroglua,
B. Beckermanc, L. Zhangb, M. Jerretta,c
a
School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
b
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
c
Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
Received 6 September 2005; received in revised form 15 June 2006; accepted 28 November 2006

Abstract

A methodology is developed to include wind flow effects in land use regression (LUR) models for predicting nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) concentrations for health exposure studies. NO2 is widely used in health studies as an indicator of traffic-
generated air pollution in urban areas. Incorporation of high-resolution interpolated observed wind direction from a
network of 38 weather stations in a LUR model improved NO2 concentration estimates in densely populated, high traffic
and industrial/business areas in Toronto-Hamilton urban airshed (THUA) of Ontario, Canada. These small-area
variations in air pollution concentrations that are probably more important for health exposure studies may not be
detected by sparse continuous air pollution monitoring network or conventional interpolation methods. Observed wind
fields were also compared with wind fields generated by Global Environmental Multiscale-High resolution Model
Application Project (GEM-HiMAP) to explore the feasibility of using regional weather forecasting model simulated wind
fields in LUR models when observed data are either sparse or not available. While GEM-HiMAP predicted wind fields
well at large scales, it was unable to resolve wind flow patterns at smaller scales. These results suggest caution and careful
evaluation of regional weather forecasting model simulated wind fields before incorporating into human exposure models
for health studies. This study has demonstrated that wind fields may be integrated into the land use regression framework.
Such integration has a discernable influence on both the overall model prediction and perhaps more importantly for health
effects assessment on the relative spatial distribution of traffic pollution throughout the THUA. Methodology developed in
this study may be applied in other large urban areas across the world.
r 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: Nitrogen dioxide; Wind; Air pollution; Urban air quality; Human health; Land use regression models; Toronto; Hamilton

1. Introduction

Land use regression (LUR) is a robust technique

Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 905 525 9140x27941; to predict air pollution concentrations such as
fax: +1 905 546 0463. nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at a given location based
E-mail address: arainm@mcmaster.ca (M.A. Arain). on surrounding physical, land use and traffic

1352-2310/$ - see front matter r 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.11.063
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
3454 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
characteristics (Jerrett et al., 2005). Incorporating
land use variables into the interpolation algorithm
leads to the detection of small-area localized
variations in air pollution more effectively than
standard methods of interpolation such as kriging
(Briggs et al., 2000). However, most LUR studies do
not take into account the impact of meteorological
conditions, particularly wind flow, while predicting
air pollution. Wind is a key meteorological variable
having a major impact on horizontal transport and
distribution of air pollutants, as well as vertical
mixing and dispersion in a region (Seaman, 2000).
Downwind areas from proximate emission sources
such as industrial locations and highways may be
exposed to significantly higher levels of pollution.
Wind flow observation networks in urban areas are
sparse and are ill-suited for providing wind fields at
appropriate spatial resolutions for use in air
pollution modelling and health exposure studies.
High-resolution regional weather forecasting mod-
els may provide an alternate source of urban-scale
wind fields (Mass et al., 2002).
In this paper, we investigate the impact of local
wind fields observed by a dense network of 38
weather stations across the Toronto–Hamilton
region of Ontario, Canada on temporal and spatial
distribution of NO2 concentrations and develop a
methodology to include wind flow effects in high-
resolution LUR models to improve their air
pollution predictive capabilities for health exposure
studies. In these models, NO2 is used as a proxy for
air pollution because it is relatively inexpensive to
measure and has been used widely as a metric of
exposure to land use and traffic-related emissions
(Briggs et al., 2000). Observed winds were also
compared with those generated by Global Environ-
mental Multiscale-High Resolution Model Applica-
tion Project (GEM-HiMAP) regional atmospheric
forecasting model to evaluate the feasibility of using
regional weather forecasting model-simulated wind
fields in LUR models. This work was motivated by
the objective of improving predictive capabilities of
empirical air pollution exposure models through
inclusion of meteorological information.
2. Methodology and data
2.1. Study area and context
The study area extends from 78.7 to 80.61W and
from 42.8 to 44.21N (approximately 150  150 km),
and encompasses the Toronto–Hamilton Urban
Airshed (THUA) situated at the western end of
Lake Ontario (Fig. 1), in Ontario, Canada. Toronto
is Canada’s largest city with a metropolitan
population of 4.7 million in 2001 while Hamilton
is the ninth largest metropolis, with a population of
0.49 million in 2001. The area experiences complex
temporal and spatial climatic controls because of
topographic variations, urban morphology, and
land–water contrasts. The climate of the region
was continental with 1971–2000 mean daily tem-
peratures in January and July of 5.3 and 21.5 1C
respectively in Hamilton, and 6.0 and 20.9 1C
respectively in Toronto.
2.2. Spatial and temporal distribution of NO2
concentrations
The spatial distribution of NO2 concentration
(mixing ratios) was measured, employing pairs of
two-sided Ogawa passive samplers (yielding four
measurements per site), from 9 to 25 September,
2002 at 95 locations in Toronto and from 21
October to 6 November 2002 at 105 locations in
Hamilton (Jerrett et al., 2005). Although for a
limited period (17 days), this dense monitoring
network provided small-area variations in NO2
concentrations that cannot be detected by the sparse
year-round air pollution monitoring network by the
Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) at few
permanent locations. For each Ogawa sensor
location, the mean, standard deviation and coeffi-
cient of variation of NO2 concentration were
calculated. Overall trends and local autocorrelation
in NO2 concentrations were explored using
a geostatistical interpolation method known as
‘ordinary kriging’ (OKG; ArcGIS 8 software; ESRI
Corp, Redlands, CA) and were used to develop the
LUR model (Kanaroglou et al., 2005). In order to
evaluate similarities and differences in Ogawa NO2
concentrations and those measured by the MOE at
permanent sites, hourly time series of MOE NO2
concentrations at three selected locations in each
city (i.e. Scarborough (east), downtown (central)
and Etobicoke (west) in Toronto, and beach (east),
mountain (central-south) and west locations
in Hamilton) were averaged for corresponding
Ogawa-sampling periods and compared with
Ogawa NO2 concentrations. Analysis of hourly
NO2 concentration time series from MOE stations
was also performed to explore the temporal varia-
tion in NO2 concentrations as well its relationship
with wind speed and direction.
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M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
Fig. 1. Study area and location of co-located weather stations and permanent NO2 monitoring stations across the Toronto–Hamilton
region.
2.3. Observed wind fields
Hourly observed wind speed and wind direction
data were obtained for two 17-day periods, corre-
sponding to Ogawa sampling campaigns from a
network of 38 weather stations across the region
(Fig. 1). Fifteen stations each were operated by the
MOE and Environment Canada (EC), while the rest
were operated by various quasi-governmental and
educational institutions and organizations. Three of
the EC stations were mounted on moored buoys in
Lake Ontario. Because of limited nature of observed
wind field and NO2 concentrations, an analysis was
performed to investigate whether the wind climate of
the two 17-day periods used in the LUR model is
representative of annual (2002) as well as long-term
wind flow patterns observed at the Pearson interna-
tional airport in Toronto (1954–2001) and John
Munro international airport in Hamilton (1970–2001).
2.4. Development of land use regression model and
observed wind fields
LUR seeks to predict pollution concentrations at a
given site based on surrounding land use and traffic
3455
characteristics. This method uses measured pollution
concentrations at a particular location as the
dependent variable and land use type, traffic, and
physical environmental variables within a circular
area (buffer) around this location as predictors of the
measured concentrations. The incorporation of land
use variables into the interpolation algorithm help to
detect localized variations in air pollution more
effectively than conventional interpolation methods
such as kriging. In this study, 83 independent
variables were created in ArcGIS to develop a
LUR model for the THUA (Jerrett et al., 2005).
Each of the 83 independent variables was tested
through an individual bivariate regression model
with SPSS 11.5. This identified that variables were
highly correlated with the NO2 observations. Overall,
the traffic and road length variables displayed the
strongest association with NO2 concentrations.
Specifically, the density of roads within a 300-m
radius buffer of each sampler location (Rd_density)
produced the best bivariate model, with a t-score of
7.032 and an R2 of 0.35. The Rd_density variables
were paired with other significant variables in a series
of trivariate regression models. The process of
manual forward stepwise regression was performed
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3456 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
until five independent variables were included in the
model. Other variable combinations were also tested
with various ‘‘best subsets’’ regression analyses in
Minitab 12.22. Due to limitations on the number of
variables allowed by the software in each selection,
we limited the best subsets to the most significant
variables discerned through the bivariate and
manual stepwise screening. These variables were
grouped into five broad categories, i.e. (i) land use
(area of different land uses within buffers of various
radii around each sampling location); (ii) road and
traffic (lengths of different road types and traffic
flow counts within buffers of different radii); (iii)
population (population density, density of dwelling
units, average dwelling values); (iv) physical geo-
graphy (geographic location in terms of coordi-
nates, and elevation); and (v) meteorology (wind
direction in relation to major emission sources).
Wind direction variables were added to the parsimo-
nious model selected from the above procedures
because the wind fields took considerable time to
construct. We also completed a series of cross-
validation tests to assess the predictive capacity and
stability of the final set of models used in the
analysis. First we re-ran the regression model with a
random selection of only 65 of the records. We
repeated this action several times and produced
remarkably similar results to those achieved from
the full 95 data set in each instance. Second, we used
the coefficients from the model using 65 cases to
predict NO2 concentrations at the 30 excluded
sampling locations. The model slightly over predicted
for these locations, but the average difference was
small in absolute and relative terms (average
concentration of about 2.2 ppb or 3.3% difference
comparing the predicted to the actual monitored
values at the 30 locations). Third, we compared the
predicted values from our model to the MOE
measurements using a 5-year (1997–2001) average
and the September 2001 average NO2 conce-
ntrations, both available through Environment
Canada’s National Air Pollution Surveillance
Network (NAPS) reports, for the four of the five
co-located sites. The modelled values were also
compared to the Ogawa measurements made under
this study in September 2002. These results indicated
that either the difference in monitoring technology or
temporal variations produced relatively larger errors
than with the Ogawa monitors that were temporally
matched.
The observed wind direction data (u and v
components) were interpolated into spatial grids
of 0.5 km resolution using the radial basis function’s
(RBF) multiquadric (MQ) interpolation method to
generate urban wind field data sets for the LUR
model following a methodology of Goodin et al.
(1980). The MQ interpolation method has emerged,
over the last 30 years, as a viable alternative to
various objective analysis schemes in meteorology
(e.g., Lee et al., 1974; Nuss and Titley, 1994). 17-day
average u and v wind components were calculated
for the 17:01–18:00 h segment of the day, for each
observation station, representing the daily after-
noon peak traffic flow. To calculate whether
locations lay up- or down-wind of a point of
emission (e.g. expressways) for a particular wind
field, a continuous surface of distance from each
grid point to the nearest expressway was created.
The u and v components of wind were interpolated
as separate scalar entities, allowing for wind
direction vector calculations to be performed within
the ArcGIS framework. The FLOWDIRECTION
function available in ArcGIS was used to determine
the direction of shortest distance to the expressway.
This function calculates the direction of shortest
distance by selecting the maximum gradient be-
tween adjacent grid cells. To determine this relation-
ship, the interaction between two vector sets is
obtained by applying the dot product operation as:
a  b ¼ a1 b1 þ a2 b2 ¼ jajjbj cos y,
where a and b are the direction vectors with
components a1 and a2 and b1 and b2, which
represents the direction to the nearest expressway
and wind direction, with y the angle that lies
between two of them. This second part of the
equality in the above equation is an identity that
provides two pieces of information: (1) the angle
that accounts for the degree of relationship between
the wind vector and expressway and (2) the sign of
cos y shows whether an expressway lies up or down
wind of any specific point of interest in study area
for that particular wind field. A negative value
translates into a grid cell located downwind of an
expressway. The opposite is true for positive values,
i.e. grid cells located upwind of an expressway.
Because areas located downwind from major
highways are exposed to higher levels of air
pollution and no measured data were available in
the THUA to quantify this increase at the writing of
this paper, NO2 concentrations were arbitrarily
increased within a 1500 m buffer downwind of
major highways (Kanaroglou et al., 2005). A
sensitivity analysis was performed by increasing
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M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
NO2 concentration, and it was established that
increasing NO2 concentrations by 0.1316 ppb
produced the most significant improvement in the
LUR model. Because NO2 is a rapidly forming
secondary pollutant, NO2 concentrations have been
found to be decreasing exponentially with down-
wind distance from major highways (Rhodes and
Holland, 1981; Gilbert et al., 2003). There was no
provision in the LUR model used in this study for
exponential decrease in pollutant concentration
from major highways.
2.5. Regional weather forecasting model wind fields
In most urban areas, meteorological observations
networks are sparse. Therefore, in order to evaluate
the feasibility of using simulated wind fields by a
regional weather forecasting models in LUR mod-
els, meteorological data encompassing THUA were
acquired from the (HiMAP) version of the GEM
model (Cote et al., 1998). The GEM model has
a constant grid spacing of 24-km over North
America; however, its HiMAP version allows
10-km grid spacing for select areas such as eastern
Canada. The GEM-HiMAP wind fields at the first
model layer (40–50 m AGL as 3-hourly averages)
were converted into 0.5 km grids, which were
compared with 3-h average observed wind data for
two 17-day periods corresponding to the Ogawa
sampling campaigns. In the comparison, wind
speeds of less than 0.25 m s1 were not included.
3. Results
3.1. Impact of observed wind fields on NO2
concentrations
In order to explore temporal variations in NO2
concentration and its relationship with wind vari-
ables during both sampling periods, hourly NO2
data from MOE operated stations were analyzed at
three locations in Toronto (Scarborough, down-
town and Etobicoke) and three locations in
Hamilton (beach, mountain and west). Hourly
NO2 concentrations ranged from 1 to 100 ppb.
Mean diurnal NO2 concentrations showed a distinct
peak in the calm morning hours when traffic was
highest in both cities, and a dip during the
afternoon hours when atmospheric turbulence was
strong because of warm temperatures (Fig. 2). Daily
average NO2 concentrations in Toronto were
relatively higher than Hamilton because of higher
3457
traffic volumes and dense land use activities. All
sites except downtown Toronto showed a distinct
but smaller late evening peak as well. The down-
town Toronto location is in relatively close proxi-
mity to Lake Ontario and hence experiences
on-shore winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Nighttime and daytime wind direction frequency
and average NO2 concentrations for each 17-day
sampling period at the three locations in Toronto
and three locations in Hamilton indicated signifi-
cant differences in the within-city wind climatology
during the day and night in both Toronto and
Hamilton (Fig. 3). The prevailing wind was from
west and southwest at all six locations in the two cities
followed by north and northeast winds. In lakeshore
areas, observed wind fields clearly displayed the
impact of the water body, with flows from the south
and southeast during the evening hours in Toronto
and from east to northeast in Hamilton. In both
cities, the land–lake circulation system was enhanced
by the urban heat island effect, which acted to
enhance the temperature and pressure differential
between built-up land areas and lake. Wind flow in
Hamilton was complicated by the traversing of the
Niagara Escarpment through the city. Northern
winds in the central part of Hamilton were blocked
and slowed by the escarpment, and diverted towards
the east. There was a strong connection between the
prevailing wind coming from areas of high traffic,
dense population and industrial areas, and high NO2
concentrations in both cities (Fig. 3). In both cities,
westerly wind speeds were generally high and resulted
in relatively lower NO2 concentrations due to higher
turbulence. The highest NO2 concentrations were
observed when wind speed was low, especially when it
was blowing from the north in Toronto and south-
west in Hamilton. For example the beach location in
Hamilton (Fig. 2) showed NO2 concentrations reach-
ing up to 50 ppb at night due to southerly winds
blowing from industrial (steel manufacturing) and
populated areas in central and west Hamilton. This
means that people living at these locations such as
Hamilton beach are likely to be exposed to higher
levels of pollutants when the wind is blowing from
high-pollution areas. This has implications for
resident’s chronic exposure conditions that are likely
to see residents at home in the evening, and potential
air pollutant-related health effects.
Comparison of wind climate of the two periods used
in the LUR model with annual (2002) and long-term
wind flow patterns observed at Toronto (1954–2001)
and Hamilton (1970–2001) airports indicated that
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3458 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

60 60
Toronto Downtown Hamilton Beach
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20

10 10

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

60 60
Hamilton Mountain
Toronto Scarborogh 50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

60
60
Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

Hamilton West
Ensemble Diurnal NO2 (ppb)

Toronto Etobicoke 50
50
40
40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time (Hour) Time (Hour)

Fig. 2. Average diurnal NO2 concentrations from continuously operated Ministry of Environment stations at (a) Downtown, (b)
Scarborough, and (c) Etobicoke in Toronto, and at (d) beach, (e) mountain, and (f) west location in Hamilton.

17-day average wind flow pattern in September was simulated wind directions at three locations in
broadly consistent with long-term data; however, Toronto and three locations in Hamilton for the
northerly winds were more frequent than in the long- two measurements periods indicated that although
term during this period. At Hamilton airport, the the model was able to simulate broad patterns of
average wind speed and direction trends recorded prevailing winds, but significant differences were
during the October–November observation period present when compared with observed wind fields
were also similar to long-term winds, however during at the local scale (Fig. 4). Differences between
the October–November period more easterly winds observed and simulated wind directions ranged
were observed (10% frequency compared to 5% between 01 and 1801, with most errors being
frequency in the long-term). Similarly, wind direction between approximately 80–1201 (figure not shown).
trends in 2002 in both Toronto and Hamilton were Similar differences in local scale winds have
consistent with long term data, with most wind been reported by previous studies using the
directions showing a less than 1% frequency difference Penn-State MM5 model (Mass et al., 2002).
at both locations (figure not shown). Differences in observed and modelled winds
may have resulted from differences in temporal
3.2. Simulated wind fields and land use regression resolutions of the observations (1 h) and model
models (3-h), differences in observation height (10–37 m),
and height of model layer (40–60 m AGL),
Comparison between frequency distribution of and course spatial resolution (10 km2) of the
differences between observed and GEM-HiMAP GEM-HiMAP model. Kanaroglou et al. (2005)
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M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464 3459

25 50
20 a 40

Average NO2 Concentration (ppb)

15 30
10 20
Wind Direction Frequency (%)

5 10
25 50
20 b 40
15 30
10 20
5 10
25 50
20 c 40
15 30
10 20
5 10
0 0
NE E SE S SW W NW N NE E SE S SW W NW N
Wind direction Wind direction

Night Day
25 65
20 d 52

Average NO2 Concentration (ppb)

15 39
Wind Direction Frequency (%)

10 26
5 13
25 65
20 e 52
15 39
10 26
5 13
25 65
20 f 52
15 39
10 26
5 13
0 0
NE E SE S SW W NW N NE E SE S SW W NW N
Wind direction Wind direction

Fig. 3. Frequency distribution of wind direction, and average NO2 concentration for night and daytime at three locations: (a) Downtown,
(b) Scarborough, and (c) Etobicoke locations in Toronto and three locations (d) beach, (e) mountain, and (f) west locations in Hamilton.
NO2 concentrations are shown by solid lines and circles.

suggested a horizontal resolution of 1.0–0.5 km Because of large differences in observed and

would be more appropriate for urban air pollution GEM-HiMAP simulated winds fields, we used
studies. This comparison shows that the distinct observed wind directions in the LUR model
geophysical features of the THUA such as topo- developed in this study. Most urban areas across
graphical variations and land–water contrast create the world may not have dense and adequately
a complex wind flow which is not accurately spaced network of weather stations; therefore, in
simulated by the GEM-HiMAP model, indicating these circumstances calibrated high-resolution
the need for higher-resolution regional weather regional weather forecasting models may provide
forecasting models to capture local-scale atmo- girded winds fields for LUR and other air pollution
spheric flow patterns. This analysis highlights the exposure studies. However, a careful evaluation of
need to refine regional climate model physics and any modelled wind fields should be performed
initial boundary conditions to more realistically before using the air pollution exposure assessment
simulate local wind fields. in health effect studies.
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3460 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464

Fig. 4. Average observed wind directions (indicated by the large arrows in circles), and GEM-HiMAP simulated wind flow (small arrows)
during morning (07:01–08:00; left panels) and evening (17:01–18:00; right panels) rush hours in the Toronto–Hamilton region for 10–25
September 2002 (upper panels) and for 21 October to 6 November 2002 (lower panels).

3.3. Observed wind fields in land use regression model
Seventeen-day average evening rush-hour ob-
served wind fields (shown in Fig. 5) were incorpo-
rated in the LUR model to improve NO2
predictions. Evening rush-hour wind flows were
chosen because they are most representative of
prevailing wind condition and the effect of the lake
breeze is captured. Fig. 6 shows a comparison
between the LUR model predicted spatial distribu-
tions of NO2 concentration with- and without-wind
effects for the Toronto and Hamilton regions. The
incorporation of wind fields produces an improve-
ment in NO2 predicted values (Fig. 6b and d),
raising R2 values for the Toronto prediction surface
from 0.65 to 0.69, and from 0.75 to 0.76 for the
Hamilton NO2 surface. Modelled NO2 surfaces
displayed higher pollutant concentrations down-
wind of major expressways in both Toronto and
Hamilton, as would be expected based on source–
receptor relations.
In Toronto high predicted concentrations of NO2
(up to 93.6 ppb) are shown around the expressways
(Fig. 6b), especially on the downwind side, for
example north of the highway-401 and east of the
Don Valley Parkway in the north of the city. Large
areas of high NO2 concentrations are also found in
the downtown area, and north east of the major
highways in Etobicoke (in the west of the city), as
would be expected due to high traffic volumes and
the direction of the average winds at this time of the
day (see Fig. 5b). Areas located in the north and
east of the highways and intersections experienced
higher NO2 concentrations, due to the prevailing
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M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464 3461

Fig. 5. Average observed interpolated wind speed and direction for morning (07:01–08:00) rush hour shown in top panels, and evening
(17:01–18:00) rush hour shown in bottom panels for (a) and (b) Toronto, and (c) and (d) Hamilton.

southwesterly wind. This means that residents living
northeast of the highways and intersection experi-
ence a chronic exposure condition, while those
living southwest of the intersection are somewhat
‘protected’ by the prevailing wind. A similar pattern
can be seen in Hamilton around highway-403
(Fig. 6d) where higher NO2 concentrations are
predicted southeast of the highway (lower left
corner of the figure), in the downtown area and
along major arterial routes. Again, residents down-
wind of the highway are more exposed to NO2
concentrations than those living upwind. NO2
concentrations are not as high as may be expected
along the Queen Elizabeth Way (the bridge located
in the upper right of the figure), because the wind
direction at this time of day advects cleaner air from
over the lake (Fig. 5d). There are noticeably higher
pollutant concentrations in the areas located be-
tween the escarpment and the lake shore. This is due
to the higher traffic volumes, and lower wind speeds
meaning less mixing and dispersion of pollutants.
This analysis shows that the LUR model created a
predictive pollution surface with the expected
characteristics. Areas in proximity to expressways
and in the downtown core had higher levels of NO2,
while areas with less development exhibited
lower levels.
In order to further evaluate the impact of wind
fields on LUR predicated NO2 concentrations, a
sensitivity analysis was performed using a number
of different combinations of the wind fields
(Table 1). These combinations included simulations
with (i) no wind variable included in the LUR
model, (ii) only morning peak wind included, (iii)
only evening peak wind included, (iv) wind for
morning or evening hours included for downwind
locations, (v) wind for morning and evening hours
for downwind locations included and (vi) separate
wind indicators for either morning or evening hours
included in the LUR model. Following Willmott
(1981), various statistical indicators were used to
evaluate the performance of the model for these
combinations of wind fields. All of them show
increased prediction efficiency for the wind inclusive
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3462 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464

Fig. 6. Average afternoon rush hour NO2 concentrations estimated by the Land Use Regression model without wind direction effects (top
panels), and with wind direction effects (bottom panels) for (a) and (b) Toronto, and (c) and (d) Hamilton.

model in comparison to the model without wind. 4. Discussion

Root-mean square error (RMSE), mean squared
error (MSE) and the variance on the residuals
decrease while the index of agreement increases with
the inclusion of the wind variable. Additionally, the
addition of wind increased the maximum simulated
mean difference in NO2 from 4.462 ppb for the no
wind model to 5.841 ppb for the separate morning
and evening wind models. These results show a
significant improvement over no wind model output
when compared to all other five options when wind
fields were included in the model. Regression
statistics shown in Table 1 indicate that there was
only a very slight difference in how we formulate the
wind (morning, evening, or both) in the LUR
model. These statistics support the conclusion that a
small but significant improvement in model perfor-
mance was made when wind directions effects were
included in this LUR model.
This study shows that wind has a significant
impact on intra-urban NO2 distributions. The
topography of the THUA significantly impacts
wind flow and it varies diurnally, especially in areas
located in close proximity to the lake. Emission
sources may be stationary (for example industry and
roadways), and their strength may vary (i.e. rush
hours produce higher emission volumes). Yet
resultant exposure fields are impacted by wind
direction, and atmospheric stability, which varies
diurnally, and are also affected by seasonal and
synoptic weather patterns. These results have
implications for health studies. The impact of wind
fields on NO2 and other air pollutant concentrations
in urban areas needs to be taken into account in
health studies as the location of study subjects in
relation to exposure fields throughout the day will
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M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464 3463

Table 1
Comparison of different LUR model performance using no-wind, morning peak wind, evening peak wind, morning or evening wind,
morning plus evening wind and separate indicators for morning and evening wind

Model R2 Beta on Average t-value p-value RMSE MSE Variance Index of

specifications wind effect of wind wind on agreement
variable wind variable variable residual
variable
(change
ppb)

Model 1 No wind 0.651 — — — — 5.561 30.924 31.092 0.889

Model 2 Morning peak 0.681 0.124 4.462 2.852 0.005 5.473 29.951 30.147 0.897
wind
Model 3 Evening peak wind 0.690 0.132 4.706 3.301 0.001 5.319 28.290 28.469 0.902
Model 4 Morning or 0.685 0.125 4.378 3.031 0.003 5.467 29.891 30.085 0.896
evening wind
Model 5 Morning+evening 0.695 0.081 4.667 3.505 0.001 5.334 28.453 28.641 0.902
wind
Model 6 Morningjevening 0.695 0.062|0.097 5.841 1.171j1.976
0.245j0.051 5.319 28.290 28.475 0.902

likely change as the subject moves about, and as
exposure fields move and evolve throughout the
day. Improved understanding of the relationship
between local wind fields and air pollution concen-
trations may help in the formulation of strategies to
mitigate its effect on human health.
Comparisons of observed and simulated wind
fields by a regional weather forecasting model
at 10-km grid resolution shows that complex
urban-scale wind patterns are not accurately repli-
cated by regional atmospheric model of this scale.
Urban-scale wind patterns are a strong control on
pollution dispersal and distribution in cities. Wind
flows modelled at a scale more appropriate to the
urban environment, land use, and vehicle emission
variations are required to replicate this influence
accurately. These results also highlight the need to
refine regional weather forecasting model physics,
spatial resolution (0.5–1 km) and initial boundary
conditions to more realistically simulate local
wind fields.
Statistical parameters of NO2 surfaces such
as R2, RMSE, MSE, variance on residual and index
of agreement predicted with and without wind
show that the inclusion of wind fields produces a
small but significant improvement in the LUR
model. The small change in the statistical parameter
values may not accurately represent the real
improvement in the predicted NO2 surface due to
the positioning of the NO2 sampling sites and
limited (2 weeks) duration of study. However,
much longer monitoring periods covering all
four seasons may be necessary to capture the
temporal and spatial variability in NO2 conce-
ntrations and to better assess the accuracy of
the model. Extra field measurements are also
required to confirm that NO2 exposures are
higher downwind of major highways. Although
the land use regression method has been shown
to perform as well or better than more costly
dispersion models (Briggs, 2005), to date no
previous studies have integrated wind fields into
the regression calibration. The conceptual and
empirical limitation has raised questions about the
validity of estimates from these models. Given the
increasing interest in assessing within-city expo-
sures, understanding whether the shortcoming of
excluding wind fields affects the empirical estimates
derived from these models constitutes an important
research question. This study has demonstrated that
wind fields may be integrated into the land use
regression framework. Such integration has a
discernable influence on both the overall model
prediction and perhaps more importantly for health
effects assessment on the relative spatial distribution
of traffic pollution throughout the city. In future
studies, we will follow recently developed Bayesian
modeling frameworks (Molitor et al., 2006) to assess
whether measurement error introduced by exclusion
of the meteorological parameters influences the size
and significance of the health effects from air
pollution exposure.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
3464 M.A. Arain et al. / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 3453–3464
5. Conclusions
The main conclusions drawn from this study are:
(1) NO2 concentrations demonstrate distinct diur-
nal and spatial variations in Toronto–Hamilton
region with maximum NO2 concentrations
observed during morning and evening traffic
peak hours and stable atmospheric conditions
indicating a blend of anthropogenic and meteor-
ological influences on air pollution concentra-
tions in the region.
(2) Wind flow patterns in urban areas are under-
studied, which makes the assessment of wind
flow patterns and hence within-city air pollution
predictions a very complex and time-consuming
procedure.
(3) While regional weather forecast models such as
GEM-HiMAP do predict wind fields well at
large scales, they are unable to resolve wind flow
patterns at smaller scales that is useful for health
studies.
(4) Ultra-high-resolution wind models are required
to capture essential local-scale atmospheric
patterns. Most air pollution prediction efforts
in the past have been fairly naive using weather
norms, which generate systemic errors in ex-
posure estimates;
(5) Wind field interpolation methods used in this
study improves land use regression model
predicted NO2 and hence air pollution concen-
tration in the greater Toronto–Hamilton region
and can potentially be used in other urban areas.
Acknowledgements
Funding for this research was provided by CIHR
and Health Canada. Support from NSERC of
Canada, CFI, OIT, CFCAS, the US NIEHS
(Grants # 5 P30 ES07048, 5 P30 ES05605-14, 5
P01 ES09581, and 1 P01 ES11627), and McMaster
University SHARCnet is also acknowledged. We
are grateful to the MSC-Environment Canada, the
OME, the University of Guelph, and private
weather station owners for data.
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