Chapter 6 Exam Project

In Chapter 6, we learned about binomial probabilities and topics similar to it. With
binomial probabilities, we learned the rules of it and vocabulary terms. The first term that we
were introduced to was a random variable. A random variable is a quantitative value x, or
numerical value x, if the value that x takes on in a given experiment or observation is a chance or
random outcome. There are two different kinds of random variables: a discrete random
variable and a continuous random variable. A discrete variable can take on only a finite
number of values or a countable number of values. A continuous variable can take on any of the
countless numbers of values in a line interval. For example, a discrete variable will be the result
of a count, like the number of students in a class, where a continuous variable will occur as a
result of a measurement on a continuous scale, like the air pressure in a tire. These different
kinds of variables help us see which kind of mathematical technique are associated with them.
Random variables have a distinct probability distribution, whether they are discrete or
continuous. Probability distribution is an assignment of probabilities to each distinct value of a
discrete random variable or to each interval of values of a continuous random variable. The key
components that pertain to probability distribution are as follows: 1) The probability distribution
has a probability assigned to each distinct value 2) The sum of all assigned probabilities must be
1. If one were to flip a coin, each distinct value (heads or tails) has the probability .5. If we add
up their probabilities, it equals 1. From probability distribution, we can find the mean and
standard deviation of the values. The mean tells us the central point of the data, and the
standard deviation tells us the measure of risk or spread. We can calculate the mean using the
formula 𝜇= 𝛴𝑃(𝑃).The standard deviation formula is 𝜎= √𝛴(𝑃 − 𝑃) 2 𝑃(𝑃). The variable x
represents the value of a random variable, P(x) is the probability of the random variable, and 𝛴is
the sum taken for all the values of the random variable. It is said that the mean gives the
expected value of the data, or the average value. With these numbers, we can find the
probability distributions of different variables, and the details of them.
Types of problems/experiments that are characterized by the feature that there are two
types of outcomes are binomial experiments. Binomial experiments have many variables and
key components that make up the experiment. Some features of a binomial experiment is that
there are a fixed number of trials. This number is expressed by letter “n”. Each trial has two
outcomes which are either success or failure. Success is represented by ”s” and failure is
represented by “f”. The number of successes in an experiment is denoted by variable “r”. The
probability of success is denoted by letter “p” and the probability of failure is demonstrated by
letter “q”. In a binomial experiment, “p + q” equals 1.
Binomial probability problems offer three different ways to solve them by using a
calculator, the number tables in the backs of our books, and the formula. On our calculator, we
can solve these problems by first typing the number of trials and then going to the math button
and scrolling over to the “PRB” (probability) and then you go down to the third choice which is
nCr. After hitting enter, type the number of successes which is “r” and press enter again. This
will give you the calculator answer. The next way to solve a binomial probability problem is by
using the table in the back of the book. The way the able is set up is that the far left of the table
states the n and r variables and you have to use the one that is stated in your problem. Then you
go over to the right and find the right p value which are listed at the top of the table. You then
match up the correct r value with the correct p value and you will receive your answer. The last
way to solve binomial probability problems is by using the equation. The correct equation is
𝑛!
𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)! ⋅ 𝑝𝑟 ⋅ 𝑞 (𝑛−𝑟) . As stated earlier n is a fixed number in the equation, r is the number
of successes in an experiment, q is the probability of failure and p is the probability of success. In
the problem given, we would plug in each number into the equation and solve. It is smart to use a
calculator which will immediately give you the right answer if entered correctly.
An important part of binomial probability problems is finding the mean. The mean, 𝜇 , is
called the expected value of probability distribution. To compute 𝜇 and 𝜎 for a binomial
distribution, the mean can be found by multiplying the fixed number of trials, n, by the
probability of success. The standard deviation can be found for binomial distributions but taking
the square root of “npq” multiplied together.
Problem: According to a study, 66% of people can whistle. If 11 people are in a
room, what is the probability that at least 10 of them can whistle? What’s the probability
that exactly 3 can whistle?
Our scenario meets the criteria of a binomial experiment because there are only two
outcomes: either they can whistle, or they cannot whistle. Also, the number of trials in our
experiment are fixed (11 students), the trials are independent of each other, the probability of
success is the same (whistle or cannot whistle, 50/50), and the main problem is to find the
probability of the number of successes out of all of the trials ( at least 3/11 and at least 10/11). In
order to find out how many students can whistle out of 11, we must give our numbers variables.
Because 11 is our fixed number of trials, n=11. We can label being able to whistle S and not
being able to whistle F. The probability of success is 66%, so p=.66. In our problem, we are
asked to find the probability if at least 10 of the students could whistle, and if at least 3 of the
students can whistle. With that said, 10 and 3=r will be our two starting points. Now that we
have n, r, and p, we can begin calculating the probabilities.
We stated above that there are multiple ways to calculate probability, but the method we
are going to use will be the binomial probability distribution table in the back of the book. We
will change our p=.66 value to p=.65 because that is the closest value available in the table. Now
that know to look in column p=.65, we can trace down column n=11. That is on page A4-A5.
From here, we can look at column r and go down the row until we find r=3 and r=10. We can
place our finger on 3 and trace it all the way to column p=.65. The probability of exactly 3 of the
11 students being able to whistle is approximately .010. We found this by tracing 3 all the way to
p=.65. We can do a similar process for the probability of 10 students being able to whistle out of
11, and we find that the probability is approximately .061. We added up the probability of 10-11
students because at least 10 of them can whistle, so that includes everything 10 and above.
Because we used the binomial probability distribution table that only had p=.65 instead of p=.66,
our results may be slightly off.
We chose to use the binomial probability distribution table method because our
probability value given to us was close to a value in the table. Our results may not be 100%
accurate, but they are very close and represent the data the same. In the context of this scenario,
this information that we found means that out of a class of 11 students, there is a 1.0% chance
that 3 of them can whistle. It also means that out of a class of 11 students, there is a 6.1% chance
that at least 10 of them can whistle. We were given the information that out of the whole world,
66% can whistle, meaning that 34% of the population cannot whistle.