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10/03/2019 Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (109 Models Explained)
Mental Model: The et Wa to Make
Intelligent Deciion (109 Model
xplained)
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Mental model are how we undertand the world. Not onl do the hape what we
think and how we undertand ut the hape the connection and opportunitie that
we ee. Mental model are how we implif complexit, wh we conider ome thing
more relevant than other, and how we reaon.
A mental model i impl a repreentation of how omething work. We cannot keep
all of the detail of the world in our rain, o we ue model to implif the complex
into undertandale and organizale chunk.
Thinking etter
The qualit of our thinking i proportional to the model in our head and their
uefulne in the ituation at hand. The more model ou have—the igger our
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toolox—the more likel ou are to have the right model to ee realit. It turn out
that when it come to improving our ailit to make deciion
variet matter.
Mot of u, however, are pecialit. Intead of a latticework of mental model, we have
a few from our dicipline. ach pecialit ee omething different. default, a tpical
ngineer will think in tem. A pchologit will think in term of incentive. A
iologit will think in term of evolution. putting thee dicipline together in our
head, we can walk around a prolem in a three dimenional wa. If we’re onl looking
at the prolem one wa, we’ve got a lind pot. And lind pot can kill ou.
Here’ another wa to think aout it. When a otanit look at a foret the ma focu
on the ecotem, an environmentalit ee the impact of climate change, a foretr
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engineer the tate of the tree growth, a uine peron the value of the land. None are
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wrong, ut neither are an of them ale to decrie the full cope of the foret. haring
knowledge, or learning the aic of the other dicipline, would lead to a more well-
rounded undertanding that would allow for etter initial deciion aout managing
the foret.
In a famou peech in the 1990, Charlie Munger ummed up the approach to practical
widom through undertanding mental model aing: “Well, the firt rule i that
ou can’t reall know anthing if ou jut rememer iolated fact and tr and ang
’em ack. If the fact don’t hang together on a latticework of theor, ou don’t have
them in a uale form. You’ve got to have model in our head. And ou’ve got to arra
our experience oth vicariou and direct on thi latticework of model. You ma have
noticed tudent who jut tr to rememer and pound ack what i rememered. Well,
the fail in chool and in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of model
in our head.”
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A Latticework of Mental Model
To help ou uild our latticework of mental model o ou can make etter deciion,
we’ve collected and ummarized the one we’ve found the mot ueful.
And rememer: uilding our latticework i a lifelong project. tick with it, and ou’ll
find that our ailit to undertand realit, make conitentl good deciion, and help
thoe ou love will alwa e improving.
The Farnam treet Latticework of Mental
Model
General Thinking Concept
1. The Map i not the Territor
The map of realit i not realit. ven the et map are imperfect. That’ ecaue the
are reduction of what the repreent. If a map were to repreent the territor with
perfect fidelit, it would no longer e a reduction and thu would no longer e ueful
to u. A map can alo e a naphot of a point in time, repreenting omething that no
longer exit. Thi i important to keep in mind a we think through prolem and
make etter deciion.
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2. Circle of Competence
When ego and not competence drive what we undertake, we have lind pot. If ou
know what ou undertand, ou know where ou have an edge over other. When ou
are honet aout where our knowledge i lacking ou know where ou are vulnerale
and where ou can improve. Undertanding our circle of competence improve
deciion making and outcome.
3. Firt Principle Thinking
Firt principle thinking i one of the et wa to revere-engineer complicated
ituation and unleah creative poiilit. ometime called reaoning from firt
principle, it’ a tool to help clarif complicated prolem eparating the underling
idea or fact from an aumption aed on them. What remain are the eential. If
ou know the firt principle of omething, ou can uild the ret of our knowledge
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around them to produce omething new.
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4. Thought xperiment
Thought experiment can e defined a “device of the imagination ued to invetigate
the nature of thing.” Man dicipline, uch a philooph and phic, make ue of
thought experiment to examine what can e known. In doing o, the can open up
new avenue for inquir and exploration. Thought experiment are powerful ecaue
the help u learn from our mitake and avoid future one. The let u take on the
impoile, evaluate the potential conequence of our action, and re-examine hitor
to make etter deciion. The can help u oth figure out what we reall want, and the
et wa to get there.
5. econd-Order Thinking
Almot everone can anticipate the immediate reult of their action. Thi tpe of
firt-order thinking i ea and afe ut it’ alo a wa to enure ou get the ame
reult that everone ele get. econd-order thinking i thinking farther ahead and
thinking holiticall. It require u to not onl conider our action and their
immediate conequence, ut the uequent effect of thoe action a well. Failing to
conider the econd and third order effect can unleah diater.
6. Proailitic Thinking
Proailitic thinking i eentiall tring to etimate, uing ome tool of math and
logic, the likelihood of an pecific outcome coming to pa. It i one of the et tool
we have to improve the accurac of our deciion. In a world where each moment i
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determined an infinitel complex et of factor, proailitic thinking help u
identif the mot likel outcome. When we know thee our deciion can e more
precie and effective.
Thi include Fat-Tailed Procee
A proce can often look like a normal ditriution ut have a large “tail” – meaning
that eemingl outlier event are far more likel than the are in an actual normal
ditriution. A trateg or proce ma e far more rik than a normal ditriution i
capale of decriing if the fat tail i on the negative ide, or far more profitale if the
fat tail i on the poitive ide. Much of the human ocial world i aid to e fat-tailed
rather than normall ditriuted.
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and aeian Updating
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The aeian method i a method of thought (named for Thoma ae) where one
take into account all prior relevant proailitie and then incrementall update them
a newer information arrive. Thi method i epeciall productive given the
fundamentall non-determinitic world we experience: We mut ue prior odd and
new information in comination to arrive at our et deciion. Thi i not necearil
our intuitive deciion-making engine.
7. Inverion
Inverion i a powerful tool to improve our thinking ecaue it help ou identif and
remove otacle to ucce. The root of inverion i “invert,” which mean to upend
or turn upide down. A a thinking tool it mean approaching a ituation from the
oppoite end of the natural tarting point. Mot of u tend to think one wa aout a
prolem: forward. Inverion allow u to flip the prolem around and think ackward.
ometime it’ good to tart at the eginning, ut it can e more ueful to tart at the
end.
8. Occam’ Razor
impler explanation are more likel to e true than complicated one. Thi i the
eence of Occam’ Razor, a claic principle of logic and prolem-olving. Intead of
wating our time tring to diprove complex cenario, ou can make deciion more
confidentl aing them on the explanation that ha the fewet moving part.
Read more on Occam’ Razor
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9. Hanlon’ Razor
Hard to trace in it origin, Hanlon’ Razor tate that we hould not attriute to malice
that which i more eail explained tupidit. In a complex world, uing thi model
help u avoid paranoia and ideolog. not generall auming that ad reult are
the fault of a ad actor, we look for option intead of miing opportunitie. Thi
model remind u that people do make mitake. It demand that we ak if there i
another reaonale explanation for the event that have occurred. The explanation
mot likel to e right i the one that contain the leat amount of intent.
Numerac
1. Permutation and Comination
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The mathematic of permutation and comination lead u to undertand the
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practical proailitie of the world around u, how thing can e ordered, and how we
hould think aout thing.
2. Algeraic quivalence
The introduction of algera allowed u to demontrate mathematicall and atractl
that two eemingl different thing could e the ame. manipulating mol, we
can demontrate equivalence or inequivalence, the ue of which led humanit to
untold engineering and technical ailitie. Knowing at leat the aic of algera can
allow u to undertand a variet of important reult.
3. Randomne
Though the human rain ha troule comprehending it, much of the world i
compoed of random, non-equential, non-ordered event. We are “fooled” random
effect when we attriute caualit to thing that are actuall outide of our control. If
we don’t coure-correct for thi fooled--randomne effect – our fault ene of
pattern-eeking – we will tend to ee thing a eing more predictale than the are
and act accordingl.
4. tochatic Procee (Poion, Markov, Random Walk)
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A tochatic proce i a random tatitical proce and encompae a wide variet of
procee in which the movement of an individual variale can e impoile to
predict ut can e thought through proailiticall. The wide variet of tochatic
method help u decrie tem of variale through proailitie without
necearil eing ale to determine the poition of an individual variale over time.
For example, it’ not poile to predict tock price on a da-to-da ai, ut we can
decrie the proailit of variou ditriution of their movement over time.
Ovioul, it i much more likel that the tock market (a tochatic proce) will e
up or down 1% in a da than up or down 10%, even though we can’t predict what
tomorrow will ring.
5. Compounding
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It’ een aid that intein called compounding a wonder of the world. He proal
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didn’t, ut it i a wonder. Compounding i the proce which we add interet to a
fixed um, which then earn interet on the previou um and the newl added interet,
and then earn interet on that amount, and o on ad infinitum. It i an exponential
effect, rather than a linear, or additive, effect. Mone i not the onl thing that
compound; idea and relationhip do a well. In tangile realm, compounding i
alwa uject to phical limit and diminihing return; intangile can compound
more freel. Compounding alo lead to the time value of mone, which underlie all of
modern finance.
6. Multipling Zero
An reaonal educated peron know that an numer multiplied zero, no matter
how large the numer, i till zero. Thi i true in human tem a well a
mathematical one. In ome tem, a failure in one area can negate great effort in all
other area. A imple multiplication would how, fixing the “zero” often ha a much
greater effect than doe tring to enlarge the other area.
7. Churn
Inurance companie and ucription ervice are well aware of the concept of churn
– ever ear, a certain numer of cutomer are lot and mut e replaced. tanding
till i the equivalent of loing, a een in the model called the “Red Queen ffect.”
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Churn i preent in man uine and human tem: A contant figure i
periodicall lot and mut e replaced efore an new figure are added over the top.
8. Law of Large Numer
One of the fundamental underling aumption of proailit i that a more
intance of an event occur, the actual reult will converge on the expected one. For
example, if I know that the average man i 5 feet 10 inche tall, I am far more likel to
get an average of 5′10″ electing 500 men at random than 5 men at random. The
oppoite of thi model i the law of mall numer, which tate that mall ample can
and hould e looked at with great kepticim.
9. ell Curve/Normal Ditriution
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The normal ditriution i a tatitical proce that lead to the well-known graphical
repreentation of a ell curve, with a meaningful central “average” and increaingl
rare tandard deviation from that average when correctl ampled. (The o-called
“central limit” theorem.) Well-known example include human height and weight, ut
it’ jut a important to note that man common procee, epeciall in non-tangile
tem like ocial tem, do not follow the normal ditriution.
10. Power Law
One of the mot common procee that doe not fit the normal ditriution i that of
a power law, where one quantit varie with another’ exponent rather than linearl.
For example, the Richter cale decrie the power of earthquake on a power-law
ditriution cale: an 8 i 10x more detructive than a 7, and a 9 i 10x more detructive
than an 8. The central limit theorem doe not appl and there i thu no “average”
earthquake. Thi i true of all power-law ditriution.
11. Regreion to the Mean
In a normall ditriuted tem, long deviation from the average will tend to return
to that average with an increaing numer of oervation: the o-called Law of Large
Numer. We are often fooled regreion to the mean, a with a ick patient
improving pontaneoul around the ame time the egin taking an heral remed, or
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a poorl performing port team going on a winning treak. We mut e careful not to
confue tatiticall likel event with caual one.
12. Order of Magnitude
In man, perhap mot, tem, quantitative decription down to a precie figure i
either impoile or uele (or oth). For example, etimating the ditance etween
our galax and the next one over i a matter of knowing not the precie numer of
mile, ut how man zeroe are after the 1. I the ditance aout 1 million mile or
aout 1 illion? Thi thought hait can help u ecape uele preciion.
tem
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1. cale
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One of the mot important principle of tem i that the are enitive to cale.
Propertie (or ehavior) tend to change when ou cale them up or down. In tuding
complex tem, we mut alwa e roughl quantifing – in order of magnitude, at
leat – the cale at which we are oerving, analzing, or predicting the tem.
2. Law of Diminihing Return
Related to cale, mot important real-world reult are uject to an eventual decreae
of incremental value. A good example would e a poor famil: Give them enough
mone to thrive, and the are no longer poor. ut after a certain point, additional
mone will not improve their lot; there i a clear diminihing return of additional
dollar at ome roughl quantifiale point. Often, the law of diminihing return veer
into negative territor – i.e., receiving too much mone could detro the poor famil.
3. Pareto Principle
Named for Italian polmath Vilfredo Pareto, who noticed that 80% of Ital’ land wa
owned aout 20% of it population, the Pareto Principle tate that a mall amount
of ome phenomenon caue a diproportionatel large effect. The Pareto Principle i
an example of a power-law tpe of tatitical ditriution – a ditinguihed from a
traditional ell curve – and i demontrated in variou phenomena ranging from
wealth to cit population to important human hait.
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4. Feedack Loop (and Homeotai)
All complex tem are uject to poitive and negative feedack loop where A
caue , which in turn influence A (and C), and o on – with higher-order effect
frequentl reulting from continual movement of the loop. In a homeotatic tem, a
change in A i often rought ack into line an oppoite change in to maintain the
alance of the tem, a with the temperature of the human od or the ehavior of
an organizational culture. Automatic feedack loop maintain a “tatic” environment
unle and until an outide force change the loop. A “runawa feedack loop”
decrie a ituation in which the output of a reaction ecome it own catalt (auto-
catali).
5. Chao Dnamic (utterfl ffect)/ (enitivit to Initial Condition)
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In a world uch a our, governed chao dnamic, mall change (perturation) in
initial condition have maive downtream effect a near-infinite feedack loop
occur; thi phenomenon i alo called the utterfl effect. Thi mean that ome
apect of phical tem (like the weather more than a few da from now) a well
a ocial tem (the ehavior of a group of human eing over a long period) are
fundamentall unpredictale.
6. Preferential Attachment (Cumulative Advantage)
A preferential attachment ituation occur when the current leader i given more of
the reward than the laggard, there tending to preerve or enhance the tatu of the
leader. A trong network effect i a good example of preferential attachment; a market
with 10x more uer and eller than the next larget market will tend to have a
preferential attachment dnamic.
7. mergence
Higher-level ehavior tend to emerge from the interaction of lower-order
component. The reult i frequentl not linear – not a matter of imple addition – ut
rather non-linear, or exponential. An important reulting propert of emergent
ehavior i that it cannot e predicted from impl tuding the component part.
8. Irreduciilit
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We find that in mot tem there are irreducile quantitative propertie, uch a
complexit, minimum, time, and length. elow the irreducile level, the deired reult
impl doe not occur. One cannot get everal women pregnant to reduce the amount
of time needed to have one child, and one cannot reduce a uccefull uilt
automoile to a ingle part. Thee reult are, to a defined point, irreducile.
9. Traged of the Common
A concept introduced the economit and ecologit Garrett Hardin, the Traged of
the Common tate that in a tem where a common reource i hared, with no
individual reponile for the welleing of the reource, it will tend to e depleted over
time. The Traged i reducile to incentive: Unle people collaorate, each individual
derive more peronal enefit than the cot that he or he incur, and therefore
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deplete the reource for fear of miing out.
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10. Greham’ Law
Greham’ Law, named for the financier Thoma Greham, tate that in a tem of
circulating currenc, forged currenc will tend to drive out real currenc, a real
currenc i hoarded and forged currenc i pent. We ee a imilar reult in human
tem, a with ad ehavior driving out good ehavior in a crumling moral tem,
or ad practice driving out good practice in a crumling economic tem. Generall,
regulation and overight are required to prevent reult that follow Greham’ Law.
11. Algorithm
While hard to preciel define, an algorithm i generall an automated et of rule or a
“lueprint” leading a erie of tep or action reulting in a deired outcome, and
often tated in the form of a erie of “If → Then” tatement. Algorithm are et
known for their ue in modern computing, ut are a feature of iological life a well.
For example, human DNA contain an algorithm for uilding a human eing.
12. Fragilit – Routne – Antifragilit
Popularized Naim Tale, the liding cale of fragilit, routne, and antifragilit
refer to the reponivene of a tem to incremental negative variailit. A fragile
tem or oject i one in which additional negative variailit ha a diproportionatel
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negative impact, a with a coffee cup hattering from a 6-foot fall, ut receiving no
damage at all (rather than 1/6th of the damage) from a 1-foot fall. A rout tem or
oject tend to e neutral to the additional negativit variailit, and of coure, an
antifragile tem enefit: If there were a cup that got tronger when dropped from 6
feet than when dropped from 1 foot, it would e termed antifragile.
13. ackup tem/Redundanc
A critical model of the engineering profeion i that of ackup tem. A good
engineer never aume the perfect reliailit of the component of the tem. He or
he uild in redundanc to protect the integrit of the total tem. Without the
application of thi routne principle, tangile and intangile tem tend to fail
over time.
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14. Margin of afet
imilarl, engineer have alo developed the hait of adding a margin for error into all
calculation. In an unknown world, driving a 9,500-pound u over a ridge uilt to
hold preciel 9,600 pound i rarel een a intelligent. Thu, on the whole, few
modern ridge ever fail. In practical life outide of phical engineering, we can often
profital give ourelve margin a rout a the ridge tem.
15. Criticalit
A tem ecome critical when it i aout to jump dicretel from one phae to
another. The marginal utilit of the lat unit efore the phae change i wildl higher
than an unit efore it. A frequentl cited example i water turning from a liquid to a
vapor when heated to a pecific temperature. “Critical ma” refer to the ma needed
to have the critical event occur, mot commonl in a nuclear tem.
16. Network ffect
A network tend to ecome more valuale a node are added to the network: thi i
known a the network effect. An ea example i contrating the development of the
electricit tem and the telephone tem. If onl one houe ha electricit, it
inhaitant have gained immene value, ut if onl one houe ha a telephone, it
inhaitant have gained nothing of ue. Onl with additional telephone doe the
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phone network gain value. Thi network effect i widepread in the modern world and
create immene value for organization and cutomer alike.
17. Via Negativa – Omiion/Removal/Avoidance of Harm
In man tem, improvement i at et, or at time onl, a reult of removing ad
element rather than of adding good element. Thi i a credo uilt into the modern
medical profeion: Firt, do no harm. imilarl, if one ha a group of children ehaving
adl, removal of the intigator i often much more effective than an form of
punihment meted out to the whole group.
18. The Lind ffect
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The Lind ffect refer to the life expectanc of a non-perihale oject or idea eing
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related to it current lifepan. If an idea or oject ha lated for X numer of ear, it
would e expected (on average) to lat another X ear. Although a human eing who
i 90 and live to 95 doe not add 5 ear to hi or her life expectanc, non-perihale
lengthen their life expectanc a the continuall urvive. A claic text i a prime
example: if humanit ha een reading hakepeare’ pla for 500 ear, it will e
expected to read them for another 500.
19. Renormalization Group
The renormalization group technique allow u to think aout phical and ocial
tem at different cale. An idea from phic, and a complicated one at that, the
application of a renormalization group to ocial tem allow u to undertand wh a
mall numer of tuorn individual can have a diproportionate impact if thoe
around them follow uit on increaingl large cale.
20. pring-loading
A tem i pring-loaded if it i coiled in a certain direction, poitive or negative.
Poitivel pring-loading tem and relationhip i important in a fundamentall
unpredictale world to help protect u againt negative event. The revere can e ver
detructive.
21. Complex Adaptive tem
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A complex adaptive tem, a ditinguihed from a complex tem in general, i one
that can undertand itelf and change aed on that undertanding. Complex adaptive
tem are ocial tem. The difference i et illutrated thinking aout weather
prediction contrated to tock market prediction. The weather will not change aed
on an important forecater’ opinion, ut the tock market might. Complex adaptive
tem are thu fundamentall not predictale.
Phical World
1. Law of Thermodnamic
The law of thermodnamic decrie energ in a cloed tem. The law cannot e
ecaped and underlie the phical world. The decrie a world in which ueful energ
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i contantl eing lot, and energ cannot e created or detroed. Appling their
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leon to the ocial world can e a profitale enterprie.
2. Reciprocit
If I puh on a wall, phic tell me that the wall puhe ack with equivalent force. In
a iological tem, if one individual act on another, the action will tend to e
reciprocated in kind. And of coure, human eing act with intene reciprocit
demontrated a well.
3. Velocit
Velocit i not equivalent to peed; the two are ometime confued. Velocit i peed
plu vector: how fat omething get omewhere. An oject that move two tep
forward and then two tep ack ha moved at a certain peed ut how no velocit.
The addition of the vector, that critical ditinction, i what we hould conider in
practical life.
4. Relativit
Relativit ha een ued in everal context in the world of phic, ut the important
apect to tud i the idea that an oerver cannot trul undertand a tem of which
he himelf i a part. For example, a man inide an airplane doe not feel like he i
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experiencing movement, ut an outide oerver can ee that movement i occurring.
Thi form of relativit tend to affect ocial tem in a imilar wa.
5. Activation nerg
A fire i not much more than a comination of caron and oxgen, ut the foret and
coal mine of the world are not comuting at will ecaue uch a chemical reaction
require the input of a critical level of “activation energ” in order to get a reaction
tarted. Two comutile element alone are not enough.
6. Catalt
A catalt either kick-tart or maintain a chemical reaction, ut in’t itelf a reactant.
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The reaction ma low or top without the addition of catalt. ocial tem, of
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coure, take on man imilar trait, and we can view catalt in a imilar light.
7. Leverage
Mot of the engineering marvel of the world have een accomplihed with applied
leverage. A famoul tated Archimede, “Give me a lever long enough and I hall
move the world.” With a mall amount of input force, we can make a great output
force through leverage. Undertanding where we can appl thi model to the human
world can e a ource of great ucce.
8. Inertia
An oject in motion with a certain vector want to continue moving in that direction
unle acted upon. Thi i a fundamental phical principle of motion; however,
individual, tem, and organization dipla the ame effect. It allow them to
minimize the ue of energ, ut can caue them to e detroed or eroded.
9. Alloing
When we comine variou element, we create new utance. Thi i no great
urprie, ut what can e urpriing in the alloing proce i that 2+2 can equal not 4
ut 6 – the allo can e far tronger than the imple addition of the underling
element would lead u to elieve. Thi proce lead u to engineer great phical
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oject, ut we undertand man intangile in the ame wa; a comination of the
right element in ocial tem or even individual can create a 2+2=6 effect imilar to
alloing.
10. Vicoit
Vicoit i the “meaure of how hard it i for one laer of fluid to lide over another
laer.” If a liquid i hard to move it i more vicou. If it i more vicou there i more
reitance. Vicoit in’t uuall an iue for human. We have to deal with gravit and
inertia, although vicoit i alwa preent. ut for mall particle, gravit and inertia
ecome a non-iue compared to vicoit. We thu learn that when we change the
cale we change what force are relevant.
The iological World
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1. Incentive
All creature repond to incentive to keep themelve alive. Thi i the aic inight of
iolog. Contant incentive will tend to caue a iological entit to have contant
ehavior, to an extent. Human are included and are particularl great example of the
incentive-driven nature of iolog; however, human are complicated in that their
incentive can e hidden or intangile. The rule of life i to repeat what work and ha
een rewarded.
2. Cooperation (Including mioi and Prioner’ Dilemma)
Competition tend to decrie mot iological tem, ut cooperation at variou
level i jut a important a dnamic. In fact, the cooperation of a acterium and a
imple cell proal created the firt complex cell and all of the life we ee around u.
Without cooperation, no group urvive, and the cooperation of group give rie to
even more complex verion of organization. Cooperation and competition tend to
coexit at multiple level.
The Prioner’ Dilemma i a famou application of game theor in which two prioner
are oth etter off cooperating with each other, ut if one of them cheat, the other i
etter off cheating. Thu the dilemma. Thi model how up in economic life, in war,
and in man other area of practical human life. Though the prioner’ dilemma
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theoreticall lead to a poor reult, in the real world, cooperation i nearl alwa
poile and mut e explored.
3. Tendenc to Minimize nerg Output (Mental & Phical)
In a phical world governed thermodnamic and competition for limited energ
and reource, an iological organim that wa wateful with energ would e at a
evere diadvantage for urvival. Thu, we ee in mot intance that ehavior i
governed a tendenc to minimize energ uage when at all poile.
4. Adaptation
pecie tend to adapt to their urrounding in order to urvive, given the comination
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of their genetic and their environment – an alwa-unavoidale comination.
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However, adaptation made in an individual’ lifetime are not paed down geneticall,
a wa once thought: Population of pecie adapt through the proce of evolution
natural election, a the mot-fit example of the pecie replicate at an aove-average
rate.
5. volution Natural election
volution natural election wa once called “the greatet idea anone ever had.” In
the 19th centur, Charle Darwin and Alfred Ruel Wallace imultaneou realized that
pecie evolve through random mutation and differential urvival rate. If we call
human intervention in animal-reeding an example of “artificial election,” we can call
Mother Nature deciding the ucce or failure of a particular mutation “natural
election.” Thoe et uited for urvival tend to e preerved. ut of coure,
condition change.
6. The Red Queen ffect (Co-evolutionar Arm Race)
The evolution--natural-election model lead to omething of an arm race among
pecie competing for limited reource. When one pecie evolve an advantageou
adaptation, a competing pecie mut repond in kind or fail a a pecie. tanding pat
can mean falling ehind. Thi arm race i called the Red Queen ffect for the
character in Alice in Wonderland who aid, “Now, here, ou ee, it take all the running
ou can do, to keep in the ame place.”
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7. Replication
A fundamental uilding lock of divere iological life i high-fidelit replication. The
fundamental unit of replication eem to e the DNA molecule, which provide a
lueprint for the offpring to e uilt from phical uilding lock. There are a variet
of replication method, ut mot can e lumped into exual and aexual.
8. Hierarchical and Other Organizing Intinct
Mot complex iological organim have an innate feel for how the hould organize.
While not all of them end up in hierarchical tructure, man do, epeciall in the
animal kingdom. Human eing like to think the are outide of thi, ut the feel the
hierarchical intinct a trongl a an other organim. Thi include the tanford
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Prion xperiment and Milgram xperiment, which demontrated what human
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learned practicall man ear efore: the human ia toward eing influenced
authorit. In a dominance hierarch uch a our, we tend to look to the leader for
guidance on ehavior, epeciall in ituation of tre or uncertaint. Thu, authorit
figure have a reponiilit to act well, whether the like it or not.
9. elf-Preervation Intinct
Without a trong elf-preervation intinct in an organim’ DNA, it would tend to
diappear over time, thu eliminating that DNA. While cooperation i another
important model, the elf-preervation intinct i trong in all organim and can caue
violent, erratic, and/or detructive ehavior for thoe around them.
10. imple Phiological Reward-eeking
All organim feel pleaure and pain from imple chemical procee in their odie
which repond predictal to the outide world. Reward-eeking i an effective
urvival-promoting technique on average. However, thoe ame pleaure receptor can
e co-opted to caue detructive ehavior, a with drug aue.
11. xaptation
Introduced the iologit teven Ja Gould, an exaptation refer to a trait developed
for one purpoe that i later ued for another purpoe. Thi i one wa to explain the
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development of complex iological feature like an eeall; in a more primitive form, it
ma have een ued for omething ele. Once it wa there, and once it developed
further, 3D ight ecame poile.
12. cotem
An ecotem decrie an group of organim coexiting with the natural world.
Mot ecotem how divere form of life taking on different approache to urvival,
with uch preure leading to varing ehavior. ocial tem can e een in the ame
light a the phical ecotem and man of the ame concluion can e made.
13. Niche
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Mot organim find a niche: a method of competing and ehaving for urvival.
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Uuall, a pecie will elect a niche for which it i et adapted. The danger arie
when multiple pecie egin competing for the ame niche, which can caue an
extinction – there can e onl o man pecie doing the ame thing efore limited
reource give out.
14. Dunar’ Numer
The primatologit Roin Dunar oerved through tud that the numer of
individual a primate can get to know and trut cloel i related to the ize of it
neocortex. xtrapolating from hi tud of primate, Dunar theorized that the Dunar
numer for a human eing i omewhere in the 100–250 range, which i upported
certain tudie of human ehavior and ocial network.
Human Nature & Judgment
1. Trut
Fundamentall, the modern world operate on trut. Familial trut i generall a given
(otherwie we’d have a hell of a time urviving), ut we alo chooe to trut chef,
clerk, driver, factor worker, executive, and man other. A truting tem i one
that tend to work mot efficientl; the reward of trut are extremel high.
2. ia from Incentive
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Highl reponive to incentive, human have perhap the mot varied and hardet to
undertand et of incentive in the animal kingdom. Thi caue u to ditort our
thinking when it i in our own interet to do o. A wonderful example i a aleman
trul elieving that hi product will improve the live of it uer. It’ not merel
convenient that he ell the product; the fact of hi elling the product caue a ver
real ia in hi own thinking.
3. Pavlovian Aociation
Ivan Pavlov ver effectivel demontrated that animal can repond not jut to direct
incentive ut alo to aociated oject; rememer the famou dog alivating at the
ring of a ell. Human eing are much the ame and can feel poitive and negative
emotion toward intangile oject, with the emotion coming from pat aociation
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rather than direct effect.
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4. Tendenc to Feel nv & Jealou
Human have a tendenc to feel enviou of thoe receiving more than the are, and a
deire “get what i their” in due coure. The tendenc toward env i trong enough
to drive otherwie irrational ehavior, ut i a old a humanit itelf. An tem
ignorant of env effect will tend to elf-immolate over time.
5. Tendenc to Ditort Due to Liking/Loving or Diliking/Hating
aed on pat aociation, tereotping, ideolog, genetic influence, or direct
experience, human have a tendenc to ditort their thinking in favor of people or
thing that the like and againt people or thing the dilike. Thi tendenc lead to
overrating the thing we like and underrating or roadl categorizing thing we dilike,
often miing crucial nuance in the proce.
6. Denial
Anone who ha een alive long enough realize that, a the aing goe, “denial i not
jut a river in Africa.” Thi i powerfull demontrated in ituation like war or drug
aue, where denial ha powerful detructive effect ut allow for ehavioral inertia.
Dening realit can e a coping mechanim, a urvival mechanim, or a purpoeful
tactic.
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7. Availailit Heuritic
One of the mot ueful finding of modern pcholog i what Daniel Kahneman call
the Availailit ia or Heuritic: We tend to mot eail recall what i alient,
important, frequent, and recent. The rain ha it own energ-aving and inertial
tendencie that we have little control over – the availailit heuritic i likel one of
them. Having a trul comprehenive memor would e deilitating. ome u-
example of the availailit heuritic include the Anchoring and unk Cot Tendencie.
8. Repreentativene Heuritic
The three major pchological finding that fall under Repreentativene, alo defined
Kahneman and hi partner Tverk, are:
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a. Failure to Account for ae Rate
An unconciou failure to look at pat odd in determining current or future ehavior.
. Tendenc to tereotpe
The tendenc to roadl generalize and categorize rather than look for pecific nuance.
Like availailit, thi i generall a necear trait for energ-aving in the rain.
c. Failure to ee Fale Conjunction
Mot famoul demontrated the Linda Tet, the ame two pchologit howed
that tudent choe more vividl decried individual a more likel to fit into a
predefined categor than individual with roader, more incluive, ut le vivid
decription, even if the vivid example wa a mere uet of the more incluive et.
Thee pecific example are een a more repreentative of the categor than thoe
with the roader ut vaguer decription, in violation of logic and proailit.
9. ocial Proof (afet in Numer)
Human eing are one of man ocial pecie, along with ee, ant, and chimp,
among man more. We have a DNA-level intinct to eek afet in numer and will
look for ocial guidance of our ehavior. Thi intinct create a coheive ene of
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cooperation and culture which would not otherwie e poile ut alo lead u to do
foolih thing if our group i doing them a well.
10. Narrative Intinct
Human eing have een appropriatel called “the tortelling animal” ecaue of our
intinct to contruct and eek meaning in narrative. It’ likel that long efore we
developed the ailit to write or to create oject, we were telling torie and thinking
in torie. Nearl all ocial organization, from religiou intitution to corporation to
nation-tate, run on contruction of the narrative intinct.
11. Curioit Intinct
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We like to call other pecie curiou, ut we are the mot curiou of all, an intinct
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which led u out of the avanna and led u to learn a great deal aout the world around
u, uing that information to create the world in our collective mind. The curioit
intinct lead to unique human ehavior and form of organization like the cientific
enterprie. ven efore there were direct incentive to innovate, human innovated
out of curioit.
12. Language Intinct
The pchologit teven Pinker call our DNA-level intinct to learn grammaticall
contructed language the Language Intinct. The idea that grammatical language i not
a imple cultural artifact wa firt popularized the linguit Noam Chomk. A we
aw with the narrative intinct, we ue thee intinct to create hared torie, a well
a to goip, olve prolem, and fight, among other thing. Grammaticall ordered
language theoreticall carrie infinite varing meaning.
13. Firt-Concluion ia
A Charlie Munger famoul pointed out, the mind work a it like a perm and egg:
the firt idea get in and then the mind hut. Like man other tendencie, thi i
proal an energ-aving device. Our tendenc to ettle on firt concluion lead u
to accept man erroneou reult and ceae aking quetion; it can e countered with
ome imple and ueful mental routine.
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14. Tendenc to Overgeneralize from mall ample
It’ important for human eing to generalize; we need not ee ever intance to
undertand the general rule, and thi work to our advantage. With generalizing,
however, come a uet of error when we forget aout the Law of Large Numer
and act a if it doe not exit. We take a mall numer of intance and create a general
categor, even if we have no tatiticall ound ai for the concluion.
15. Relative atifaction/Mier Tendencie
The env tendenc i proal the mot oviou manifetation of the relative
atifaction tendenc, ut nearl all tudie of human happine how that it i related
to the tate of the peron relative to either their pat or their peer, not aolute.
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Thee relative tendencie caue u great mier or happine in a ver wide variet of
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ojectivel different ituation and make u poor predictor of our own ehavior and
feeling.
16. Commitment & Conitenc ia
A pchologit have frequentl and famoul demontrated, human are uject to a
ia toward keeping their prior commitment and taing conitent with our prior
elve when poile. Thi trait i necear for ocial coheion: people who
often change their concluion and hait are often ditruted. Yet our ia toward
taing conitent can ecome, a one wag put it, a “hogolin of foolih mind” –
when it i comined with the firt-concluion ia, we end up landing on poor anwer
and tanding pat in the face of great evidence.
17. Hindight ia
Once we know the outcome, it’ nearl impoile to turn ack the clock mentall. Our
narrative intinct lead u to reaon that we knew it all along (whatever “it” i), when
in fact we are often impl reaoning pot-hoc with information not availale to u
efore the event. The hindight ia explain wh it’ wie to keep a journal of
important deciion for an unaltered record and to re-examine our elief when we
convince ourelve that we knew it all along.
18. enitivit to Fairne
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Jutice run deep in our vein. In another illutration of our relative ene of well-
eing, we are careful ariter of what i fair. Violation of fairne can e conidered
ground for reciprocal action, or at leat ditrut. Yet fairne itelf eem to e a
moving target. What i een a fair and jut in one time and place ma not e in
another. Conider that laver ha een een a perfectl natural and perfectl
unnatural in alternating phae of human exitence.
19. Tendenc to Overetimate Conitenc of ehavior (Fundamental Attriution
rror)
We tend to over-acrie the ehavior of other to their innate trait rather than to
ituational factor, leading u to overetimate how conitent that ehavior will e in
the future. In uch a ituation, predicting ehavior eem not ver difficult. Of coure,
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in practice thi aumption i conitentl demontrated to e wrong, and we are
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conequentl urpried when other do not act in accordance with the “innate” trait
we’ve endowed them with.
20. Influence of tre (Including reaking Point)
tre caue oth mental and phiological repone and tend to amplif the other
iae. Almot all human mental iae ecome wore in the face of tre a the od
goe into a fight-or-flight repone, reling purel on intinct without the emergenc
rake of Daniel Kahneman’ “tem 2” tpe of reaoning. tre caue hat
deciion, immediac, and a fallack to hait, thu giving rie to the elite oldier’
motto: “In the thick of attle, ou will not rie to the level of our expectation, ut fall
to the level of our training.”
21. urvivorhip ia
A major prolem with hitoriograph – our interpretation of the pat – i that hitor i
famoul written the victor. We do not ee what Naim Tale call the “ilent
grave” – the lotter ticket holder who did not win. Thu, we over-attriute ucce to
thing done the ucceful agent rather than to randomne or luck, and we often
learn fale leon excluivel tuding victor without eeing all of the
accompaning loer who acted in the ame wa ut were not luck enough to ucceed.
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22. Tendenc to Want to Do omething (Fight/Flight, Intervention,
Demontration of Value, etc.)
We might term thi oredom ndrome: Mot human have the tendenc to need to
act, even when their action are not needed. We alo tend to offer olution even when
we do not enough knowledge to olve the prolem.
23. Falification / Confirmation ia
What a man wihe, he alo elieve. imilarl, what we elieve i what we chooe to
ee. Thi i commonl referred to a the confirmation ia. It i a deepl ingrained
mental hait, oth energ-conerving and comfortale, to look for confirmation of
long-held widom rather than violation. Yet the cientific proce – including
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hpothei generation, lind teting when needed, and ojective tatitical rigor – i
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deigned to root out preciel the oppoite, which i wh it work o well when
followed.
The modern cientific enterprie operate under the principle of falification: A
method i termed cientific if it can e tated in uch a wa that a certain defined reult
would caue it to e proved fale. Peudo-knowledge and peudo-cience operate and
propagate eing unfalifiale – a with atrolog, we are unale to prove them either
correct or incorrect ecaue the condition under which the would e hown fale are
never tated.
Microeconomic & trateg
1. Opportunit Cot
Doing one thing mean not eing ale to do another. We live in a world of trade-off,
and the concept of opportunit cot rule all. Mot aptl ummarized a “there i no
uch thing a a free lunch.”
2. Creative Detruction
Coined economit Joeph chumpeter, the term “creative detruction” decrie
the capitalitic proce at work in a functioning free-market tem. Motivated
peronal incentive (including ut not limited to financial profit), entrepreneur will
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puh to et one another in a never-ending game of creative one-upmanhip, in the
proce detroing old idea and replacing them with newer technolog. eware
getting left ehind.
3. Comparative Advantage
The cottih economit David Ricardo had an unuual and non-intuitive inight: Two
individual, firm, or countrie could enefit from trading with one another even if one
of them wa etter at everthing. Comparative advantage i et een a an applied
opportunit cot: If it ha the opportunit to trade, an entit give up free gain in
productivit not focuing on what it doe et.
4. pecialization (Pin Factor)
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Another cottih economit, Adam mith, highlighted the advantage gained in a free-
market tem pecialization. Rather than having a group of worker each producing
an entire item from tart to finih, mith explained that it’ uuall far more
productive to have each of them pecialize in one apect of production. He alo
cautioned, however, that each worker might not enjo uch a life; thi i a trade-off of
the pecialization model.
5. eizing the Middle
In che, the winning trateg i uuall to eize control of the middle of the oard, o
a to maximize the potential move that can e made and control the movement of the
maximal numer of piece. The ame trateg work profital in uine, a can e
demontrated John D. Rockefeller’ control of the refiner uine in the earl da
of the oil trade and Microoft’ control of the operating tem in the earl da of the
oftware trade.
6. Trademark, Patent, and Copright
Thee three concept, along with other related one, protect the creative work
produced enterpriing individual, thu creating additional incentive for creativit
and promoting the creative-detruction model of capitalim. Without thee
protection, information and creative worker have no defene againt their work
eing freel ditriuted.
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7. Doule-ntr ookkeeping
One of the marvel of modern capitalim ha een the ookkeeping tem introduced
in Genoa in the 14th centur. The doule-entr tem require that ever entr, uch
a income, alo e entered into another correponding account. Correct doule-entr
ookkeeping act a a check on potential accounting error and allow for accurate
record and thu, more accurate ehavior the owner of a firm.
8. Utilit (Marginal, Diminihing, Increaing)
The uefulne of additional unit of an good tend to var with cale. Marginal utilit
allow u to undertand the value of one additional unit, and in mot practical area of
life, that utilit diminihe at ome point. On the other hand, in ome cae, additional
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unit are uject to a “critical point” where the utilit function jump dicretel up or
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down. A an example, giving water to a thirt man ha diminihing marginal utilit
with each additional unit, and can eventuall kill him with enough unit.
9. ottleneck
A ottleneck decrie the place at which a flow (of a tangile or intangile) i
topped, thu holding it ack from continuou movement. A with a clogged arter or a
locked drain, a ottleneck in production of an good or ervice can e mall ut have
a diproportionate impact if it i in the critical path.
10. rier
Often ignored in maintream economic, the concept of rier i central to human
tem: Given the chance, it i often eaier to pa a certain agent to look the other
wa than to follow the rule. The enforcer of the rule i then neutralized. Thi
principle/agent prolem can e een a a form of aritrage.
11. Aritrage
Given two market elling an identical good, an aritrage exit if the good can
profital e ought in one market and old at a profit in the other. Thi model i
imple on it face, ut can preent itelf in diguied form: The onl ga tation in a
50-mile radiu i alo an aritrage a it can u gaoline and ell it at the deired profit
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(temporaril) without interference. Nearl all aritrage ituation eventuall diappear
a the are dicovered and exploited.
12. uppl and Demand
The aic equation of iological and economic life i one of limited uppl of necear
good and competition for thoe good. Jut a iological entitie compete for limited
uale energ, o too do economic entitie compete for limited cutomer wealth and
limited demand for their product. The point at which uppl and demand for a given
good are equal i called an equilirium; however, in practical life, equilirium point
tend to e dnamic and changing, never tatic.
13. carcit
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Game theor decrie ituation of conflict, limited reource, and competition.
Given a certain ituation and a limited amount of reource and time, what deciion
are competitor likel to make, and which hould the make? One important note i
that traditional game theor ma decrie human a more rational than the reall
are. Game theor i theor, after all.
14. Mr. Market
Mr. Market wa introduced the invetor enjamin Graham in hi eminal ook The
Intelligent Invetor to repreent the viciitude of the financial market. A Graham
explain, the market are a it like a mood neighor, ometime waking up happ and
ometime waking up ad – our jo a an invetor i to take advantage of him in hi
ad mood and ell to him in hi good mood. Thi attitude i contrated to an
efficient-market hpothei in which Mr. Market alwa wake up in the middle of the
ed, never feeling overl trong in either direction.
Militar & War
1. eeing the Front
One of the mot valuale militar tactic i the hait of “peronall eeing the front”
efore making deciion – not alwa reling on advior, map, and report, all of
which can e either fault or iaed. The Map/Territor model illutrate the prolem
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with not eeing the front, a doe the incentive model. Leader of an organization can
generall enefit from eeing the front, a not onl doe it provide firthand
information, ut it alo tend to improve the qualit of econdhand information.
2. Ammetric Warfare
The ammetr model lead to an application in warfare where one ide eemingl
“pla different rule” than the other ide due to circumtance. Generall, thi
model i applied an inurgenc with limited reource. Unale to out-mucle their
opponent, ammetric fighter ue other tactic, a with terrorim creating fear that’
diproportionate to their actual detructive ailit.
3. Two-Front War
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The econd World War wa a good example of a two-front war. Once Ruia and
German ecame enemie, German wa forced to plit it troop and end them to
eparate front, weakening their impact on either front. In practical life, opening a
two-front war can often e a ueful tactic, a can olving a two-front war or avoiding
one, a in the example of an organization tamping down internal dicord to focu on
it competitor.
4. Counterinurgenc
Though ammetric inurgent warfare can e extremel effective, over time
competitor have alo developed counterinurgenc trategie. Recentl and famoul,
General David Petraeu of the United tate led the development of counterinurgenc
plan that involved no additional force ut utantial additional gain. Tit-for-tat
warfare or competition will often lead to a feedack loop that demand inurgenc and
counterinurgenc.
5. Mutuall Aured Detruction
omewhat paradoxicall, the tronger two opponent ecome, the le likel the ma
e to detro one another. Thi proce of mutuall aured detruction occur not
jut in warfare, a with the development of gloal nuclear warhead, ut alo in
uine, a with the avoidance of detructive price war etween competitor.
However, in a fat-tailed world, it i alo poile that mutuall aured detruction
https://fs.blog/mental-models/ 29/31
10/03/2019 Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (109 Models Explained)
cenario impl make detruction more evere in the event of a mitake (puhing
detruction into the “tail” of the ditriution).
***
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