Climate change — | _ vulnerability and resilience') Chapter Causes of global climate change sometimes exceeding 1000°C. Within the atmosphere there are four distinct eae Fising or falling with altitude. The layers are: * Thermosphere. ‘The thermosphere is the highest | layer of he atmosphere, extending from about 80 Jlometres above sea level out othe farthest || The atmosphere limits ofthe atmosphere, The gases in this layer | |) Theatmosphereis ike thin im surrounding the ofthe atmosphere ae wey thin an the 1 earth. If the earth were the size of a soccer ball on a thermosphere makes up only 0.001% of the mass i Wet field, the atmosphere woutd be like the wet of the atmosphere. Infact, there is little it layer around it. In fact the atmosphere is about 500 __ difference between the thermosphere and a kilometres thick, although half the mass of the vacuum, The gases in this layer are oxygen, | atmosphere is found in the lowest six kilometres, hnydrogen and nitrogen, and these absorb ultra | and 99% of the atmosphere is contained in the violet radiation from the sun, heating up to very ! lowest 40 kilometres high temperatures exceeding 200°C and layers, defined by whether the temperatures are * Mesosphere. The mesosphere isthe second highest layer of the atmosphere, extendinghere is the highest ding from about 80 1 the farthest sases in this layer and the 001% of the mass eisll sphere and a are oxygen, ese absorb ultra- eating tp to very OPC apd isthe second. wy} THERMOSPHERE est eer r stphrospHene i Tempovalue between about 50 and 80 kilometres above sea level, This. the coldest part of the atmosphere because there is very little cloud, dust, ozone or Water vapour to absorb heat from the sun. ‘The ‘mesopause, which separates the mesospher from the thermosphere above it, is alw ays a constant “PC. ‘The mesosphere also has the strongest winds inthe atmosphere, approaching 3,000 kilometres per hour in places Stratosphere. ‘The stratosphere is found below the mesosphere in a band from about 20 Kilometres to 50 kilometres above sea level There isa concentration of ozone in the Stratosphere, and as ozone absorbs ultra-violet radiation ver increasing alt well, temperatures rise with tude in the stratosphere. In the Causes of global climate change lower parts of the stratosphere, most of the ultra violet radiation has already been absorbed, 50 temperatures are cooler. ‘The temperature atthe top of the stratosphere isa fairly constant 0°C, but atts lower limit (the tropopause) the temperature is typically about 50°C 4.3 The Loposphare ts layer of We atmoaniere Gosest a the cuts surface, and ils where weather occu veh 9 this * Troposphere. ‘The troposphere isthe lowest layer of the atmosphere, and it contains most of the mass of the atmosphere, as well as most of the dust, water vapour and pollution. Itis the layer in which the weather occurs, and it behaves quite differently to the other three layers, Whereas the three upper layers obtain their heat directly from solar radiation, the troposphere is warmed indirectly by reflected heat from the earth's surface and clouds. ‘Temperatures in the troposphere fall by about 6.5°C for every 1000 ‘metres rise in altitude, although this figure varies from place to place. The troposphere comprises a ‘mixture of gases, but the most important ones are nitrogen (78/2), oxygen (21), argon (almost VW), and carbon dioxide (0.003%), Other gases such as hydrogen, helium, krypton, methane, neon, ozone and xenon together make up only 0.001% of the atmosphere. ‘The troposphere also contains water vapour (the gaseous form of water), but the proportion of water vapour varies sreatly from place to place and from day to day. L. Drow upa tile fsantrst the amcerstes she four Iayersof he carts otoghenChapter 4 The global heat budget and atmospheric circulation All the processes of the atmosphere (and indeed all. life on earth) depend on energy from the sun. ‘he sun's enery is enormous. ‘The surface area of the sun is 6 million billion square metres, and the tenergy sent from each square metre is enough to power one million ight bulbs. A smell part of the tenergy produced by the sun reaches the earth, ‘The: incoming solar radiation, known as insolation, arrives in the form of short-wave radiation. Short-wave radiation from the sun is mainly visible light towards the purple endl of the spectrum with a wavelength 0f10.39 to 0.75 wm (micrometres, or smierons). ‘The reason that the sun's energy is short- wave radiation is that the: vc Cooler bodies such as the moon and the earth, emit Jong-wave radiation, which is mainly infrared heat with a wavelength of about 4to 30 pm. is so hot; 5,30 When the sun's energy reaches the atmosphere, itis dispersed in different ways. Although clouds cover about half ofthe earth at any time, they are poor absorbers of the sun's energy. Miich move solar ‘energy is absorbed by dust and gases in the Sar A c E SHORT Waves From sun 100% Causes oF atmosphere, especially water vapour. Altogether, 12 of incoming solar radiation is absorbed in the atmosphere, {Une earth's surface absorbs 47% of the insolation, some directly and some after being reflected o scattered by the atmosphere, A small amount oF radiation is reflected by the earth’s surface back into space particular place depends on the kind of surface on the earth at that point. Light, shiny surfaces, such as snow and ice, have much higher reflectivity (or albedo) than darker, duller surfaces, such as dark soll ora gocen forest The amount of energy reflected from a 45 Ws angle low, but this fa 1 snow Have a high albedo (over 908) Ihe sis view ofthe Pace Ocean in Ftshows The amount of heat received at the earths surface varies according to latitude, Less solar enengy is absorbed by the ground in polar areas than ‘equatorial areas for three reasons, First, the sun's rays strike the earth's surface at a lower angle nes the poles, ‘Therefore an equivalent amount of sol ‘energy approaching the equator and the poles must of bespreacl aver a larger area in polar areas, meaning J that there is less heat per square metre on the % surface. ol ‘The second reason that the poles receive less solar ing radiation is that the sun's rays must penetrate a wi _greater thickness of atmosphere near the poles tnd than near the equator. This is because the rays thd penetrate the atmosphere at an oblique angle. As a result ofthis, the dust and gases of the atmosphe a absor’ more heat and light, andl less reaches the thd earth's surfaceur, Altogether, s absorbed in the ofthe insolation, ig reflected OF mall amount of 's surface back y reflected from a ind of surface on ny surfaces, such jer reflectivity (or ces, such as dark io (over 2035 the sun 146 The in ays meet the eant'ssuror, Th wr ggrom} an nthe late, At Ni he earth's surface s solar energy is areas than s. Firs the sun's a lower angle near int amount of solar and the poles must olar areas, meaning metre on the receive less solar vust penetrate a e near the poles cause the rays sblique angle. Asa “of theratmosphere Tess reaches the ‘The third reason that the earth’s surface at the poles absorbs less solar radiation is that more of the light that does reach the surface is reflected back into space, The shiny white ice and snow of the poles has a much higher albedo than the water and vegetation of the equatorial zones. In fact, snow and ice reflect about 80% of the solar energy whereas grass and trees will absorb between 65% and 85); of solar energy. Furthermore, any surface ‘becomes shinier when light hits iat a low angle — even a black bitumen road seems shiny when viewed at a low angle. ‘The light that reaches the Polar surfaces does s0 at a very low angle, and so much of iis reflected rather than absorbed, When radiation is reflected from the earth’s surface, the wavelength becomes longer, which means that the radiation shifts towards the red and infrared tnd of the spectrum. In other words, less of the ‘ndiation is in the form of light, and more of itis in the form of heat. This is significant because the ‘g88es of the atmosphere are relatively good Causes of global climate change absorbers of long-wave radiation and thus absorb the energy emitted by the Earth's surface to a seater extent than they absorb the short-wave radiation coming from the sun. 1 we examine the amount of energy received and lost at different latitudes over an entize year, we can discern the heat budget shown in figare-47, The {graph shows the average annual insolation at each latitude (curve 1) and the average annual loss oF long-wave enengy (curve Il). Although the total incoming energy (curve D equals the total outgoing cencrgy (carve ID, there isa net sueplis of energy between the equator and latitudes 38° North and South, while latitudes betiween 38° North and South and the poles have anet deficit, 2 0 a 0 Latte ‘ver lotus t shown by curve & whe avarage lose o longa cov shor by cunVe Lats Between the equolar a patvacen 2M and Sand the poles hav 7nd Hote hat We know that over the history ofthe planet, the ‘equatorial regions have not continued to heat up while the polar areas have not kept getting colder ‘The reason for this s that a complex mechanism of atmospheric circulation sedistributes heat fom the equatorial regions (low latitudes) tothe polar regions (high latitudes). Itis this redistribution of heat enengy that ereates the world’s pressure systems and winds, Of ll the solar energy received by the earth, 34% is. reflected back into space, either from the earth’s surface (2%), from the atmosphere itself (7) or from clouds (25%). However, before the energy is reflected back into space, some ofits retained the atmosphere for a while, and this is the heat that| | | Yi i Chapter 4 provides the warmth that makes the earth habitable by humans. ‘This process where the output of heat from the atmosphere equals the input atthe same time as at amount i retained fora while is known as the natural greenhouse effeet. This s the same principle by which a greenhouse provides a warm environment for eraps to grow hence the name. Without the natural greenhouse effet the earth ‘would be 33C* cooler than itis now. (Note Hit her zee refer to actual temperatures, we use the orm 33°C tout rhen we discuss sifferences betwen fo temperatures ro use te form 33C). Foarhuses bp Duly up leat for cual ol 48 Farner ‘ri and vegetasies inc the earh’s atmosphere Ike a greenhouse. These greethouses near Borat n Albarie ar belg used to cullvate tomatoes, 1 enc gure A tte the propor sd ya at's ca aie insole i is esta by dhe oasphae and (c lsa gpace, ic th sf reg an te raion en te epee fons drt a sup igre? 3 pn aly Mat puto nary ie cun Ahaha pals i his Whar the aon gras i? i jerte If the global heat budget never varied, the natural greenhouse effect would always be constant. Tf there were no changes in the planet's inputs or ‘outputs of energy, our climate would never change, However, we know from historical, geological and biogeographical records that Farth’s climate has Causes of global climate change always fluctuated through warm and cold periods. Climate is not static ibis dynamic, Figure 446 shows the changes in Greenland’s climate over the past 75,000 years up until the id-19805, We can see from these graphs that the climate has only been warmer than present levels for about 15% of the past 75,000 years. We can also see that temperatures have varied even within short periods of time, and in some cases, this has had ‘major effects on human activities such as fishing and farming. 3 = {49 Temperature changes in Greeniand over the past 75,000 years up tothe mic-1806. in the top graph (a we see that the That ice age ended about 1,000 years ogo. Inthe mkt aaa {B). ne see tat avorage temperatures forthe past L000 years fepproximately) were ower than forthe period since 1950, " neh.we relatively min Gr that tamperare changes ean occur qu iy. a ba vein them. We so vee sl warm and cold peaks can naw gniieant mllence on human actos anc Obviously, the changes shown in Figure 4.6 occurred due to natural eauses, as the number of ‘humans for most of the past 75,000 years was far too smal to have any significant impact on the ‘environment ata global scale. Natural causes of mate change might include changes in levels of solar activity; the impact of volcanic activity (extra dust in the atmosphere can lead to cooling), variations in Earth's orbit (perhaps with changingn and cold periods. Greenland’s up until the se graphs that the pan present levels years. We can also ed even within short es, this has had such as fishing, aid aver the past 75,00 2p ow sea at tN 5 fr tha pst L000 yes Ne paod snes 1980, nperatures since 1420 nav in figure 46 _as the number of 000 years was far t impact on the Natural causes of anges in levels oF aie agtivity (extra it cooling), aps with changing distances from the sun) and changes in the humidity and loud cover. Notivithstanding the importance of natural causes of climate change, extensive research and data analysis by geographers and scientists has led to a ‘general acceptance that humans also have a significant impact on Earth’s climate. Moreover, ‘human impact is increasing as world population sgrows and human activities produce more pollutants. The global enengy balance is not static, and consequently climate changes. World climate is vulnerable to pressures and processes that can distort the global energy balance. Any change in the balance betiveen insolation and energy radiated ‘back to space is known as radiative forcing Positive forcing warms the atmosphere as more incoming solar energy (insolation) is received or the amount of radiation lost back to space is reduced, Negative forcing cools the atmosphere as less insolation is received or the quantity of radiation lost to space increases. Pressures and processes that cause radiative forcing are called forcing agents. Some forcing agents arv external, which means they ‘originate away from Planet Earth and its atmosphere, Examples of external forcings include changes in the sun's production of energy and variations in Earth's orbit. Forcing agents that are not external are internal, which means they originate within Planet Earth and its atmosphere. Examples of internal forcings include changes in the composition of the atmosphere, changes in ‘ocean currents and circulation, and volcanic activity such as eruptions. In this section, three sets of forcing agents will be considered: solar variability, terrestrial changes in albedo, and greenhouse gas emissions such as methane. Solar radiation variations The Sun is the star at the centre of our solar system that provides the energy for most processes that ‘occur on Earth, including our weather and climate. The Sun isa ball of gases that are constantly. owirling in a turbulent, seething mass at extremely high temperatures. The surface temperature of the Sun is about 6,0010°C, and like any hot object, it emits energy as electromagnetic radiation. In the case of the Sun, the energy roleased covers a wide spectrum of wavelengths from long wavelength (lovy frequency) radio waves through to short wavelength (high frequency) gamma rays. Visible Hight occurs within a narrow band in between low frequency infrared radiation (or heat) and high frequency ultraviolet radiation. ‘The spectrum of visible light we seein a rainbow is an expansion of this narrow band of visible (white) light, ranging, fom red at the low frequency (long wavelength) ‘end of the spectrum through orange, yellow, green, blue to violet atthe high frequeney (short wavelength) end of the vi 440 A rainbow fons inthe spray at Fos do Iguacu Nusa rowing ths th 63 (8 He op) wavelength voll a the Dott) Fol) on he border of Brae and Argent fun of vse light from tang weave ‘The Sun’s energy travels outwards in straight lines, called rays, at a speed of about 300,000 kilometres per second. At thal speed, it takes about eight and half minutes for the Sur's enezgy to reach Earth, ‘which orbits the Sun ata distance averaging about 150 million kilometres, As energy radiates away from the Sun, none of itis lost as it travels through space. However as the Sun's rays spread outwards with increasing distance from their source, planets that are further away receive less energy than those that are closer. The Sun produces energy at arate that is wearly constant, and therefore the quantity of solar energy the Earth receives each day is almost constant, The rate at which energy comes from the Sun is known as the solar constant. The solar constants, measured beyond the limits of Earth's atmosphere before any of itis diffused or absorbed, and it has a ‘mean vale of 1367.7 W/m? (Watts per square etre.Chapter 4 ‘We say thatthe solar constant isa mean (or average) figure because it does vary slightly, and this results in fluctuations inthe amount of energy available for Earth's atmospheric and other ‘processes. We use the term solar variability to refer to the changes in energy (or radiation) produced by the Sun, Solar variations arse for several reasons: + Solar evolution: About 4.5 billion years ago, the Sun was about 8% smaller and about 3% less radiant than it is now, so the solar constant at that ‘time was about 30% less than the present figure. When they first form, all stars (including the Sun) comprise about 75% hydrogen and 25% helium. Asbillions of years pass, the hydrogen at the core of stars such as the Sun burns, producing helium as a product. Helium is denser than hydrogen, so Beara Causes of global élimate change the helium ‘sinks’ towards the core of the Sun, forcing the lighter hydrogen outwards to the surface, Asa result ofthis process, the hydrogen-helium mixin the Sun is gradually becoming denser, thus raising the pressure, which causes the nuclear reactions within the Sun to become hotter. This causes the Sun to become brighter. ‘The Sunis almost half-way through its process of ‘buming hydrogen at its core, so this trend of brightening is expected to continue for about ‘another 4.8 billion years. By that time, the Sun is predicted to be about 67% brighter and about 10% larger than its present size, raising the mean solar constant toa level that is about 1.5 times the ‘current figure. SER ERR S r ™ = Ps e Mad Wal ean =e = lh oN \g ‘bust conceriaton “Thousands of years ago 41 Ice cote data from Vostok Station, Antarctica. The top graph shows temperature varatlons n macro-cycles that last ale 0% ‘han 100,000 years, wth smaller cycles of aferent curation superposed. The IPCC notes thal the Ice age cycles were driven BY Milankoch Cycles, wth changes In carbon doxide folowing temperalure changes wih a lag of several hundred years. This tO ‘expected as warm periods lead to Increased plant growth, ad expansion of vegetation increases carbon cloxide production, Furthermore, carbon dloxie fs more soluble in colé water than in warm wate. so there wll be less carbon dloxide nthe atmospie during an ice age because more Is absorbed inthe oceans, The higher cust levels are belleved to be caused by cold ry peocs preciptation levels drop in colder climates, Source: NOAA,ore of the Sun, twards to the ydrogen-helium >ming denser, causes the nto become ecome brighter. rugh its process of sthis trend of rive for about at time, the Sun is iter and about ‘raising the mean sbout 1'5 times the | ces that last alitie more o cycles were ven by ired years. This 6 10 Be oxlde production, aide nthe almospiord ec by col ky pea Although the changes are miniscule on an annual basis, the Sun is gradually becoming hotter and brighter, and therefore sends marginally more energy to the Earth each year. If this has any impact on the Earth’s climate, itis only on an ‘extremely long-term basis. + Changes in Farth’s orbit: Earth's annual orbit around the Sun does not follow precisely the same path each year. When the Earth is closer to the Sun, mote insolation is received than when the Earth is more distant, There have been several attempts to calculate the Earth’s deviations from its regular patter of orbits, notably by the Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milankovie (sometimes spelt Milankoviteh). ln the 1920s, Milankovié developed his theory that a combination of changes in the Earth's orbit and the angle of it ofits axis affected the world’s climate overtime. ‘This impact on climate is known as orbital forcing, and Milankovig caleulated that each cycle of orbital changes lasted about 21,000 years, Superimposed on that 21,000 year cycle is a longer cycle of changes in the tlt of Barth’ axis that lasts 41,000 years. Overall, the impact of orbital changes i believed to be stronger than the axial tit changes, but each amplifies the other, resulting in an overall cycle of alitie over 100,000 years ‘The combination of major orbital cycles with ‘minor axial tit cycles superimposed upon them are known as Milankoviteh Cycles. Evidence for Milankovitch Cycles and orbital forcing is seen in the regular eycle through which Earth seems to experience ice ages, which seem to have followed lange and small scale cycles superimposed upon each other (figure 4.11), ‘Sunspots and short solar cycles: Sunspots are dark areas on the Sun’s outer layer that zones of lower temperatures. They vary greatly size from about 15 kilometres up to about 150,000 Kilometres in diameter. They are not permanent features, but they occur for short periods ofa few days to a few months when magnetic distortions interfere with the normal conveetion flows within the Sun's gases. ‘They typically appear in pairs with each adjoining sunspot having the reverse Polarity of the other (one is positive while the other is negative), Sunspots occur in fairly regular eyeles of about 11 years that reflect changing magnetic levels of the Sun. ‘The point in the ¢yele when the Sun's _magnetic field is strongest coincides with the period of maximum sunspot activity, and is, known as the solar maximum, Conversely, the point when the magnetic field is weakest and sunspot activity is reduced is known as the solar ‘This 1-year cycle is significant because more radiation is emitted from the Sun during the time around the solar maximum when sunspot activity is greatest. Research is stil underway to ‘measure the magnitude of this variation, but a general consensus suggests that the solar radiation emitted between the solar maximum and solar minimum differs by about 0.2% 442 Sunspots onthe Sun's sur er February 2013, The since betivean the ower ve unspots fe abont the se icinas the diameter of the Fath + Global dimming: Global dimming is a decrease of insolation reaching the Farth’s surface, Itis the opposite of global brightening, which is an inerease in the amount of solar radiation reaching, the Earth's surface. The most common cause of ‘global dimming is tiny particles that are suspended in the atmosphere which absorb and / or reflect radiation back into space. Global dlimming has two main effects on climate, causing a cooling of the Farth’s suefaee and a reduction of evaporation that leads in turn to a reduction of precipitation, ‘The twwo most common natural sources of airborne particles are fires and volcanic eruptions, ‘The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, a volcano in Indonesia, was one of the largest inon ar Wis a nana Neve banat, Al recorded history. The noise of the eruption was reported to have been heard 5,000 kilometres away. ‘The eruption poured sulphur gas and ash into the atmosphere, causing a voleanic winter for five years as average global temperatures fell by 1.2C’. Written records from the time describe ‘spectacular red sunsets around the world. following the eruption as alzbome particles dispersed the afternoon sunlight. Although most volcanic eruptions are smaller than the Krakatoa event, the cumulative effect of volcanic eruptions is significant, especially during periods when several eruptions occur in difforent parts of the world. Itis speculated that global dimming may have ‘been a contributory factor in causing ice ages at ‘various times in the planet's history, as we know from geological evidence that there have been periods of intense volcanic activity. From written records we know that the 23 kilometre long Lakagigar fissure in Iceland erupted continuously for an eight-month period during 1743 to 1784, ‘The eruption was one ofthe langest in recorded history, producing about 20 cubic kilometres of lava and clouds of hydrofluoric acid and sulphur dioxide that killed a quarter of lecland’s population and half the livestock. ‘The eruption led to global dimming with widespread impacts, such as reduced rainfall in the Sahel rogion of Sub-Saharan Africa, and prolonged, abnormally cold winters in North America AA conesn vnw of oto nish foreign mnt Terrestrial albedo changes and feedback loops The Earth's albedo is the proportion of insolation that i reflected by the surface of the Earth back into space. Albedo can be meastred, and as an example, a surface that reflects 357 of the radiation it recoives has an albedo of 0.35. Therefore, a surface that has a high albedo such as snow or ice (0.40 to 085) reflects most the radiation it receives, absorbing only a small proportion. On the other hand, a surface with alow albedo such as dark soil (0.08 0 0.13) ora dark roadway (0.05) absorbs almost all the incoming energy. Table 4.1 shows typical albedo values fora variety of objects and surfaces. 45. Show anc ee have high rates of elect, of abe. own by this area of snow over the Gieenland ice cap,a retnfcoland toxay. The etited for etght month tion of insolation the Earth back into of the radiation uch as snow or ice diation it receives, on, On the other do such as dark soil ay of objects and Chapter 4 Feedback loops occur when the outputs of a system circulate back and become inputs in a said to ‘feed back’ into itself When a forcing agent tig of the climate in an area, the revealed and grassland colonises the area. Table 44 Typical alnedo values for short. wave succession of cause-and-offect cycles. ‘The system is gers a warming or cooling, bedo may change as a consequence. For example, if the climate in an area cools, the surface cover of snow and ice might ‘expand to cover grassland or bare earth, and this ‘will increase the area's albedo because snow and ice are light-coloured and shiny. Conversely, if an area ‘warms up, the surface cover of snow and ice might shrink, increasing the area’s albedo as bare earth is Figure 4.16 shows how a change to the albedo can trigger a chain reaction that leads to an ongoing feedback loop. When the temperature of an area near the poles rises and the albedo decreases, more insolation is absorbed by the ground which causes the temperature to rise further asthe air above the foes oa Steed Forcing agent triggers a change in cl Cees ee ned St Fresh snow 02010 090 Bry cones ays10020 Bison toads oxstoo%0 Bouts 08019090 Bebatines 0810020 Seneca ges wet season 01510020 Brow giana easton 02618030 Terese gist 1010020 [Bei teat 010030 Tove oes o0sto'5 Baio torons oo = 00119020 rth ner tion appox.049 Beco sun naa verhoos appro. 005 "chore adton s dened sels an @ pistons kromates whan includes aed edaton ele Hp. unk ele aye and ge a, Bis snow 240% 080 Sn anal gical ce 02010050 Lain sons pastas Ba dc su oostooss si cians 1010020, 4.46 Albedo fodb:k ops that aria a ight ‘warmer ground is also heated, On the other hand, if a forcing agent triggers the cooling of an area near the poles, the albedo rises a the ice caps expand. Thus, more radiation is reflected back into space, the ground absorbs less radiative energy causing the air temperature to drop further, leading to another cycle, and then another, and so on. This is known as an amplifying feedback loop because the repeated looping increases and perpetuates the impact of the intial tigger, Feedback loops reinforce changes in the albedo in other parts of the world that are away from the polar ice caps and glacial areas. For example, in areas that are experiencing the process of desertification, such as the Sahel region of Africa, the drying of the climate expands the surface cover Causes of global climate changeChapter 4 of sand or bare earth as vegetation dies. Sand and bare earth (that is usually light in colour in avid areas where the soil contains very little humus) have a higher albedo than the vegetation that has died, leading, to greater reflection of insolation which can further exacerbate the aridity of an area. ‘Once again, once the change has been triggered, a feedback loop perpetuates the spiral of climate change. “Vhe dying back of forest areas, whether caused by human action through deforestation or natural processes, usally iereaes the albedo of an area as forests absorb most ofthe insolation in the area. Once the albedo inereases, reflected radiation casually rises (depending on the state of tbe underlying soil and the vegetation that replaces the forest, leading to further dieback of the forests and the start ofa feedback loop. n ohare, Maly 447 Tivsares nation. The eas aed timate 38.98 dn sy rm cath, Tye abeto vl bacome Ii) Many geographers believe that albedo feedback oops were a significant factor in causing ice ages and interglacial warmings throughout the Earth's history. ‘They speculate that periods with intense voleanic activity could trigger a severe volcanic ‘winter that would staeta long spiral of albedo foedback loops. If the voleanic winter following the Krakatoa explosion had been slightly longer or a little more intense, some climate scientists speculate that it may have been enough to trigger a small ice ‘age due to amplifying feedback loops. Causes of global climate change Greenhouse gas release and feedback loops Greenhouse gases are gaseous compourels in the atmosphere that trap heat by absorbing infrared radiation, Some greenhouse gases are more effective than others in trapping, heat, and those that absorb heat efficiently are major contributors to the greenhouse effect, When greenhouse gases release the heat they have retained for a while, sorne itis counter radiated back to the Earth's surface, amplifying, the heating impact of the initial insolation. IF greenhouse gases absorb more heat than they lose, the atmosphere warms up. When. the atmosphere warms consistently for a prolonged period over an extensive area such asa continent or the entire planet, global warming is said to occur, Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, which is why the planet has had a rnatural greenhouse effect for as long as the ‘atmosphere has existed. The most significant naturally occurting greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, ezone and nitrous oxide, Human actions can influence the concentrations of those gases in the atmosphere, which is why itis believed humans play a part in causing climate change. Human-induced climate change is termed anthropogenic climate change. (One facet of anthropogenie climate change is the production of synthetic greenhouse gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrofluorocar- bons (HFCs), In this section, the emphasis will be ring greenhouse pases. fon naturally 0c [The effectiveness of greenhouse gases to heat the atmosphere is measured by their global warming, potential (GWP). GWPisa relative measure that ‘compares the amount of heat trapped in a given ‘mass of gas to the amount of heat trapped in an equivalent mass of carbon dioxide. Therefore, the GWP of carbon dioxide is always 1. Estimates oF GPs of some of the more common greenhouse gases are shown in table 4.2, Two main factors influence the GWP of a gas + the radiative efficiency of the gas, which i its ability to absorb infrared radiation (ie. heat): « the stability of the gas, which is how long, remains in the atmosphere before decaying or being converted into another substance.and pounds in the sng infrared. nt and those contributors to pose gases for a while, the Barth act of the initial orb more heat ms up. When for a prolonged asa continent or « said to occur inthe et has had a asthe ignificant yses are carbon zone and nitrous cothe e atmosphere, splaya part in nduced climate limate change. » change is the se gases such as ydrofluorocar mphasis will be o gases ases to heat the slobal warming ve measure that ped ina given teapped in an 2. Therefore, the 1, Estimates of on greenhouse WP of a gas: as, which ists jon (ie. heat); show Jong it re decaying or ibstance, Table 4.2 ‘Global Warming Potential (WP) of major greenhouse gazes eee ceded Le i. EE a. PS ET coc, ‘Fgurs for water vapour are expanea me ex Chibon Conde an ethane oct natural nthe enon and can soos produced by human actons, The ther ses are ely sth ard donot. cur naturay me ereonment, Note tha ectnates of GPS se ‘abject to change as research is cantnung. The estes son a th otestovalatie hom the PCC tergoveravtal Panel on crate ‘Chango, puntshedn PCC ARS (2) n 20, A high GWP indicates that a gas has a large capacity to absorb and retain heat as well as a long atmospheric lifetime. It should be noted that although water vapour is the most significant _greenhouse gas in terms of impact, with some estimates saying it contributes about 95% of the Farth’s greenhouse effect, its GWP eannot be calculated because the methodology of GWP assumes that a gas will decay in the atmosphere, which water vapour dees not so, Furthermore, the “amount of water vapour in the atmosphere fluctuates so much with daily and seasonal temperature changes that an average figure would bbe meaningless. ‘Water vapour (10) is the most significant igreenhouse gas in the atmosphere by volume, and itis by far the largest contributor to the natural ‘greenhouse effect. Water vapour isthe gaseous form of water, and it forms when liquid water ‘evaporates or is boiled, and when ice is Sublimated (changed directly from a solid to a gas). Like other gases, water vapour mixes freely through the atmosphere, but unlike other gases, its ‘concentration varies greatly from day to day and trom place to place. Water vapour ustally makes up less than 1% of the atmosphere, but it can be as high as 4% in warm, moist, humid cond "auses of global climate change Carbon dioxide (CO;) is the second most significant greenhouse gas by volume in the atmosphere. Its typical concentration is about (0.04%; (400ppm ~ parts per million); before plobal industrialisation began a few hundred years ago, the typical concentration was about 290ppm, Carbon dioxide is essential to life because plants. depend upon it for photosynthesis, which converts ‘carbon dioxide into chemical compounds that build up the plant’s tissues and supporting structures, as well as releasing oxygen into the atmosphere as a by-product. Carbon dioxide is produced naturally by volcanoes during eruptions, in hot springs and geysers in geothermal areas, and its liberated from trees and plants when they burn and from carbonate racks when they are dissolved by running water and acidic rainfall. Human activities such as burning, fossil fuels and cutting down forests can increase the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, 48 Hot sp Although we know a great deal about the sources that add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, predicting, future concentrations is more difficult because not all the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere remains there. A complex system known as the carbon cyele moves carbon through the environment. Plants are an important component of the carbon cycle as they absorb» carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere. However, when plants die, the organisms that decompose the plant tissue release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,ri Chapter 4 Although these processes are normally held in tralance, human actions have added greater quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than can be absorbed. However athe concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased, conditions forthe growth of plants have improved, so trees, shrubs andl grasses have flourished in some areas. At present, forests are growing more rapidly than they are being, destroyed in the northem hemisphere, an this additional plant growth is helping to limit the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide. On the ‘other hand, tropical deforestation in the southern hemisphere scems to be overwhelming the gains of the northern hemisphere, so any additional plant growth has not been sufficient to absoeb the Additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is one of the key reasons that the atmospheric ‘concentration of carbon dioxileis continuing t0 449, The word's ropa enfon won. os ike al ais, ey ab fer to photosyni Tepresent avast store of When vegetation diol fron tho ‘re ure, carbon doxide[s fleased back int the atmosp This example isn Davee Reforest on the coast ‘Queensland, northeastern Attala Another important element of the carbon cycle is the world’s oceans, Carbon dioxide is absorbed from Hhe atmosphere by floating, microscopic plant life called phytoplankton that live in the surface layer of the ocean, Once absorbed, carbon dioxide gets mixed into the ecean water by turbulent cuiace waves. When phytoplankton die, they sink to the floor of the ocean where they decompose ant lease carbon dioxide, thus enriching ocean waters atdepth, Causes of global cilmate change 1420 The Wolk’ oodans (even here in Fi) area huge sto carbon diese. ‘Ocean eurents then carry the carbon dioxide dough a vast network of slew-moving global ccurcents thatact ikea huge conveyor belt. As the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, the oceans take in more carbon dioxide than they release. Ttis believed thatthe oceans are currently acting, as a carbon sink, absosbing, and storing, ‘additional carbon dioxide at great depths, anc if this were not occurring, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide would be even higher and global temperatures would be warmer. Methane (C1 gas. Ibs major component (87% by volume) of natural gas, and a suchy it cus naturally and abundantly underground and beneath the ocean floor. Methane is ceated in the upper level of the Eacth’s surface by microorganisms in the process of methanogenesis, an! then released into the atmosphere ) is another significant greenhouse