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Rainflow Algorithm Based Lifetime Estimation of

Power Semiconductors in Utility Applications


Lakshmi GopiReddy1, Leon M. Tolbert1,2, Burak Ozpineci2, João O. P. Pinto3
1 2 3
EECS Department, PEEMRC, Department of Electrical Engineering
The University of Tennessee, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
Knoxville, USA. Oak Ridge, USA. Campo Grande -MS, Brasil
Email: lgopired@utk.edu

mechanical analysis to semiconductors. Recent IGBT


Abstract—Rainflow algorithms are one of the best counting reliability applications included inverters integration for photo
methods used in fatigue and failure analysis popularly used in voltaic, and wind applications, adjustable speed drives, matrix
semiconductor lifetime estimation models. However, the rainflow converters, electric vehicle applications, aerospace
algorithm used in power semiconductor reliability does not applications etc. [3]-[22]. Little research has been found in
consider the time dependent mean temperature calculation. The reliability of IGBTs and the power converters in FACTS
equivalent temperature calculation proposed by Nagode et al is
applications.
applied to semiconductor lifetime estimation for the first time in
this paper. A month long arc furnace load profile is used as a test Fig.1 demonstrates the steps involved in lifetime estimation
profile to estimate temperatures in IGBT in a STATCOM for for semiconductor applications. In power semiconductor
reactive compensation of load. The degradation in the life of the applications, cycle counting algorithms are applied to
IGBT power device is predicted based on time dependent temperature data obtained from the loss calculation and
temperature calculation. thermal model of the semiconductors, and by using lifetime
Index Terms—Cycle counting, rainflow algorithms, power models based on temperature obtained from manufacturer’s
semiconductor reliability, lifetime estimation, STATCOM test data, a degradation model can be estimated assuming
linear accumulation of degradation with Miner’s rule.
To predict the life of a component subjected to a variable
I. INTRODUCTION load history, cycle counting methods are applied to reduce the
With the integration of Smart Grid (SG) technology into the complex history into a number of events which can be
bulk power system, the issue of reliability of the system is a compared to the available constant amplitude test data [1].The
matter of concern. North American Electric Reliability most common cycle counting methods are a) Peak Counting,
Corporation (NERC), in its report on “Reliability b) Level Counting, c) Hayes method, d) Racetrack method and
Considerations from Integration of Smart Grid,” has e) simple range counting [23]. Rainflow algorithm was
emphasized all the existing devices and systems such as developed to incorporate the cycles formed by the hysteresis
Phasor Measuring Units (PMUs), Flexible AC Transmission loop characteristic of the stress-strain plot, shown in Fig. 1.
Systems (FACTS), etc., need to be considered when assessing Rainflow algorithm has gained popularity mainly because it
reliability of the bulk power system [1]. According to an provides the average value [15] and has little relative error
industry based survey presented in [2] the power [12]. The analogy of rainflow counting first described by
semiconductor device failures are a major concern for Matsuishi and Endo [24] is derived from the rain flowing
reliability of the power converter. According to MIL-std 757, (dripping) off the pagoda roofs, demonstrated in Fig. 2 (a).
the IGBTs are the second most unreliable devices causing The current state of power semiconductor reliability studies
failure of the inverter, after capacitors [2]. is presented in section II. Section III presents Nagode and
Reliability of power electronics has gained importance with Hack’s equivalent temperature calculation. Application of
the European automotive initiatives for traction like LESIT rainflow algorithm to an IGBT based STATCOM providing
(Leistungs Elektronik Systemtechnik und Informations reactive compensation to an arc furnace based industrial load
Technologie), a Swiss government funded research program,
and the German project, RAPSDRA (Reliability of Advanced
Power Semiconductor Devices for Railway Traction
Application) [6][7]. Ciappa et al applied simplified thermo-

The submitted manuscript has been prepared by the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, managed by UT- Battelle for the
U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.The
manuscript is authored by a contractor of the U.S. Government under contract
DE-AC05-00OR22725. Accordingly, the US Government retains a non-
exclusive, royalty-free license to publish from the contribution, or allow Figure 1. Block diagram of the steps involved in lifetime estimation of power
others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. semiconductors.

978-1-4799-2325-0/14/$31.00 ©2014 IEEE 2293


2

Stress
σ B
D

E
H
C Strain, ε

A
I

a) b)
Figure 2. "Rainflow" on a) a load sequence and b) its stress-strain plot.

is presented in section IV. The analytical loss calculation


methodology is discussed in section V and the results are
presented.
Figure 3. Rainflow algorithm of a signal with cycle’s information from code
available in MATLAB [26].
II. APPLICATION OF RAINFLOW ALGORITHM TO
SEMICONDUCTOR LIFETIME ESTIMATION
Arrhenius model [6] for the power cycling test data they
The application of rainflow algorithms to semiconductor conduct and hence the constants are readily available. In this
reliability involves understanding the basics of thermal paper, the Coffin-Manson-Arrhenius model is used for
expansion, stress and strain. The strain is the ratio of change in estimating lifetime in conjunction with a rainflow algorithm
length of a material to its actual length as a result of change in for cycle counting.
temperature (ΔT). Thus, in order to obtain the strain in the The drawbacks of conventional rainflow algorithms as
different packaging materials of the power semiconductor applied to power semiconductor lifetime estimation are
module, it is important to consider the temperature gradient 1) Conventional rainflow can be applied to extreme points
(ΔT). For power semiconductor devices, the ambient (peaks and valleys) only and so the load data is
temperature is usually 25 oC, and the temperature data above transformed to a data with only peak and valley
25 oC results in a strain in the different materials of the information. Hence it cannot be applied to real-time data.
module. Instead of considering the temperature gradient for 2) Half-cycles are counted only at the end of data [14]. It is
the complete dataset, the temperature gradient of only the difficult to calculate remaining useful life in between the
closed cycles determined by a rainflow algorithm is load points.
considered. Hence, the rainflow algorithm can be easily 3) The mean temperature calculation is independent of the
applied to temperature data. time period.
The other cycle counting methods, unlike rainflow The first two drawbacks are addressed by Mussallam and
algorithm, do not consider the stress-strain hysteresis Johnson in [25]. An online real-time rainflow algorithm for
characteristic and can be easily extended to temperature data. half-cycle counting was proposed and applied to a metro-train
Ciappa et al specifically used range counting for temperature application. The issues of online half-cycle counting and
data [8]. Bryant et al were the first to apply rainflow temperature bins were addressed.
algorithms to temperature data for semiconductor lifetime The equivalent temperature calculation described in section
estimation in traction applications [5]. Most of the research IV gives a time-dependent relation to lifetime estimation. It is
that followed used rainflow algorithms which were written followed in fatigue analysis but has not been considered for
using C and MATLAB software code by Nieslony available in semiconductor analysis.
MATLAB Central for temperature data [26]. Fig. 3
demonstrates the application of rainflow algorithm by III. EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE-TIME DEPENDENT FATIGUE
Nielsony to a sample load profile. MODEL
Held et al proposed a relation between temperature gradient,
and mean temperature to lifetime or number cycles it can In conventional rainflow algorithms, stress or strain data
over time are input to the algorithm. The data is reconsidered
withstand [6]. Choosing the lifetime estimation models are an
with only positive and negative peak values. After the
important step in lifetime estimation as seen in Fig.1. In the
criterion for cycle counting is met, the corresponding
past few years, extensive research in this area has led to
amplitude and mean values of stress or strain are calculated
various lifetime models [22]. Bayerer’s model describes the for each cycle. The output is thus a matrix with cycle
dependence of all operating conditions of a power information, mean value and amplitude of stress or strain that
semiconductor and would be a good fit. However, the forms a cycle. Usually the mean and amplitude values are
constants of the model can be obtained only by experimental plotted as a histogram. The stress and strain plots are
validation which is time consuming [22]. Most manufacturers temperature dependent as shown in Fig. 4 for aluminum and
follow the Coffin-Manson and/or the Coffin-Manson

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363K
403K
443K
523K

a) b)
Figure 4. Stress-strain graph variation with temperature of a) solder [32] b) aluminum specimen [31].

solder [31][32]. As the temperature increases, the stress the


metals can withstand decreases. Hence, a temperature
dependent rainflow algorithm was proposed by Nagode and
Hack.
Nagode et al [26] presented the online model for
temperature dependent fatigue, based on the four point
rainflow algorithm and damage estimation for moderate but
variable temperatures. The algorithm is based on equivalent
temperature calculation and recalculation. It consists of four
variables as input, the temperature, stress or strain, time, and
equivalent temperature. The equivalent temperature is
calculated after every step and updated. The temperature
dependent rainflow algorithm does not take creep and other Figure 5. Time considerations for equivalent temperature model.
effects into account, but it enables improved fatigue life
estimates [26].
temperature amplitude (gradient), ∆T, and mean temperature,
Consider the 4-point temperature profile shown in Fig.
Tm, even a slight difference in temperatures for large number
5.Ti+1 and Ti+2 forms a closed cycle according to four-point
of load points, would affect the overall lifetime, that can be
rainflow algorithm. The equivalent temperature of a closed
seen from temperature dependent stress-strain plots [31][32].
loop for 4-point algorithm starting at Ti+1, reaching Ti+2, and
arriving back at Ti+1 shown in Fig. 5 is calculated as
IV. LIFETIME ESTIMATION OF IGBT IN A STATCOM FOR AN
T ei +1 > T t , or , T ei + 2 > T ⎫
INDUSTRIAL LOAD
⎧ max( T ei +1 , T ei + 2 )
(1)
⎪ t p − t i+2 ⎪ A STATCOM is a voltage source converter connected to
T ei = ⎨ t i + 2 − t i +1 ⎬
T + T otherwise
⎪ t p − t i +1 ei +1 t p − t i +1 ei + 2 ⎪ the grid to provide reactive compensation and harmonic
⎩ ⎭
elimination, as shown in Fig. 6. In order to estimate the
tp- is the time at which the half cycle is closed, as described lifetime of an IGBT in a STATCOM, a long term load
by Fig. 5. The equivalent temperature calculation is preferred variation for a power system should be obtained. In this case,
over the mean temperature calculation previously used an arc furnace based industrial load in Brazil, whose power
because it considers the dependence of time on the lifetime. factor values are monitored every 15 minutes throughout the
Table I illustrates the difference in the mean calculations for day over a period of a month, shown in Fig. 7, is considered
the signal in Fig. 3 for conventional and equivalent for analysis and lifetime estimation of IGBT. Every day
temperature based calculations. Four closed cycles are during the weekdays from 19:30 to 23:30 hrs the arc furnace
determined by the four-point algorithm criterion. The mean load is switched off and the capacitor banks are used to
temperatures using conventional calculation method and provide reactive compensation of the grid current. During
equivalent temperatures are shown in the 6th and 9th columns these off-peak hours, the output power is low but reactive
of Table I. It also displays the equivalent time values from the power is injected into the grid, resulting in low leading power
calculations. A major difference in the mean temperature factor. The loss calculation model and the thermal model
described in [28][29] are used in this paper. It is assumed that
calculation can be observed for the second and third cycles
STATCOMs connected in parallel compensate for overall
where the mean temperatures by conventional calculation are
reactive power of the load and a single STATCOM can
57.0oC and 54.2oC, while that by equivalent temperature compensate the maximum rated power, 180 kVA.
method are 58.7oC and 55.3oC. Since lifetime is dependent on

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TABLE I
A STEP BY STEP ANALYSIS OF RAINFLOW ALGORITHM WITH AND WITHOUT EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE CALCULATION
APPLIED TO THE EXAMPLE PROFILE IN FIG. 2.
Conventional rainflow
Start and Cycle formed Equivalent temp calculation
end Points (Range ) using
extreme considered Four-point Start and Mean Equiv. start Mean
Amplitude Amplitude
points rainflow end times temp and end times Temp
1-2 77.96-36.93 - 3-9 - - 3-9 - -
2-3 36.93-72.03 No 9-18 - - 9-18 - -
3-4 72.03-42.71 No 18-21 - - 18-21 - -
4-5 42.7-70.7 Yes 21-24 28 56.7 21-24 28 56.58
3-6 72.04-42.17 Yes 18-27 29.87 57.10 18-21.05 29.87 58.7
2-7 36.9-76.46 No 9-30 - - 9-19.15 - -
7-8 76.46-39.82 No 30-36 - - 19.15-36 - -
8-9 39.82-60.8 No 36-42 - - 36-42 - -
9-10 60.8-47.58 Yes 42-48 13.22 54.19 42-48 13.22 55.3
8-11 39.82-71.54 No 36-51 - - 36-43.34 - -
11-12 71.54-57.48 Yes 51-57 14.06 64.51 43.34-57 14.06 64.82
12-13 57.48-75.8 No 57-60 - - 57-44.04 - -

TABLE II
LIST OF PARAMETERS AND DESCRIPTIONS
Il load current of the system
Ia inverter Phase current
Φ power factor angle of the load
Rfd on state resistances of diode
Roni on state resistances of IGBT
Von_d forward voltage drop across the diode
Von_i forward voltage drop across the IGBT
turn on switching losses from test
E on_test
conditions
E off_test turn off switching losses from test
DC voltage across the switch during the
VDC
current operation
DC voltage across the switch with the
VDC_test
test conditions from the datasheet
current across the IGBT during test
Ictest
conditions
fsw switching frequency

TABLE III.
Figure 6. STATCOM model connected to grid. LIST OF IGBT AND DIODE PARAMETERS FOR LOSS
CALCULATION
Analytical model for power calculation is discussed in section Ron Von Eon Eoff (mJ)
IGBT 4 mΩ 1.8 V 22 mJ 15
V. Diode 11 mΩ 1.0 V 32(reverse recovery)

V. ANALYTICAL POWER LOSS CALCULATION


⎛ V on _ d I 1 × sin( φ ) R on _ d ⎞
Table II is a list of symbols, and parameters used in the Pcond _d = (I 1 × sin φ )⎜⎜ + ⎟

(3)
equations in this paper. ⎝ 2Π 8 ⎠
a. Power Factor Correction Conduction losses are dependent on the square of the
For a lagging/leading power factor current drawn by the current and sine of the power factor angle. The switching
load, the real power is provided by the source while the losses can be approximated by the turn-on and turn-off losses
reactive power is provided by the STATCOM, i.e. the from the switching test values listed in the datasheet. In
magnitudes of the source and inverter currents are iactive=is=il general, switching losses are linearly dependent on operating
× cos(Φ) and inonactive=ic=±il × sin(Φ) respectively. current and voltage.
For inverter current, Ia=Il×sin (Φ), and power factor, pf = 0 In power factor correction, the inverter current is
(since the voltage and current are 90o apart) the equations are ic=il × sin(Φ), and the switching losses can be written as
transformed to [28] [29]. P =
f ⎡
× E
sw
×
V
×
I sin( Φ )
+E ×
V
×
I sin( Φ ) ⎤ (4) DC

DC l l

sw
π ⎣⎢
on _ test
V DC _ test ICtest
off _ test
V DC _ test ICtest ⎦⎥
⎛ Von _ i I1 × sin( φ ) Ron _ i ⎞
Pcond _i = (I1 × sin φ )⎜⎜ + ⎟

(2) From (4), it can be deduced that as the power factor decreases,
⎝ 2Π 8 ⎠ the switching losses increase. The parameters required for
calculation of losses are listed in Table III.

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The IGBT current and temperature distribution while supplier’s power cycling data to that of (4), the constants are
maintaining unity power factor of the power system is shown derived as α equals -6.14, for mean temperature, Tm of 25 oC,
in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, respectively. The temperature varies from and A=1300. The constant values were obtained by curve
40oC to a maximum of 100oC. fitting the manufacturer’s data for power cycling to (5).
This temperature profile of a semiconductor is applied to Linear accumulation of the fatigue damage is considered.
fast rainflow algorithm [30] in conjunction equivalent The degradation is given by [1]
temperature calculation [26]. The remaining useful life and N (ΔT , Tm )
lifetime estimation methodology are described in detail in D=∑ (6)
[30]. N f (ΔT , Tm )
The relation between the life in terms of number of cycles Using (5) and (6), the degradation is 6.8×10-3 for the load
and the mean temperature, and the amplitude of temperature is profile shown in Fig. 7. The total cycles for the load profile
given by the Arrhenius-Coffin-Manson’s lifetime model are 533 using four-point rainflow algorithm [25].T
proposed by Held et al [6] as shown in (5) Degradation is calculated with and without equivalent
Q temperature calculation, and the histogram plots are shown in
( )
α
N f (Tm , ΔT j ) = A × ΔT j × exp RTm
(5) Fig. 10 a) and b) respectively. For conventional rainflow
algorithm calculation, the degradation accounts for 0.029%
where A, α are constants and are module dependent, R is the degradation for the month while the degradation calculation
gas constant (8.314 J1mol.K), Tm is the mean junction with equivalent temperature calculation accounts for 0.033%.
temperature in one power cycle in Kelvin, and the internal This emphasizes the importance of equivalent temperature
energy is Q = 7.8 × 104 JMol-l (or about 0.8eV). ΔTj is the based lifetime calculation for semiconductors in long-term
variation of the junction temperature. By curve fitting the calculations.

Figure 7. Arc furnace based industrial load power factor variation monitored for every 15 minutes for a period of month.

Figure 8. Inverter current in amperes for unity power factor of the load.

Figure 9. IGBT temperature variation for the reactive compensation of the load.

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a) b)
Figure 10. Rainflow histogram of load profile in Fig. 7 with a) conventional calculation and b) equivalent temperature calculation.

[5] T. Bryant, P. A. Mawby, P. R. Palmer, E. Santi, and J. L. Hudgins


“Exploration of Power Device Reliability Using Compact Device
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algorithms used in calculating lifetime, specifically for
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT European Conference on Power Electronics and Applications (EPE),
This work made use of Engineering Research Center Shared Aug. 30- Sept. 1, 2011, pp. 1-8.
[13] M. Musallam, M. Johnson, C. Yin, C. Bailey, and M. Mermet-Guyennet,
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