Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162

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Environmental Modelling & Software

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Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in a tropical

catchment
D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim*
Environmental Conservation and Management Degree Programme, Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Hydrologic simulation employing computer models has advanced rapidly and computerized models
Received 19 September 2012 have become essential tools for understanding human influences on river flows and designing ecolog-
Received in revised form ically sustainable water management approaches. The HEC-HMS is a reliable model developed by the US
7 March 2013
Army Corps of Engineers that could be used for many hydrological simulations. This model is not cali-
Accepted 10 March 2013
brated and validated for Sri Lankan watersheds and need reliable data inputs to check the suitability of
Available online 6 April 2013
the model for the study location and purpose. Therefore, this study employed three different approaches
to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS 3.4 model to Attanagalu Oya (River) catchment and generate long
Keywords:
HEC-HMS
term flow data for the Oya and the tributaries.
Calibration Twenty year daily rainfall data from five rain gauging stations scattered within the Attanagalu Oya
Validation catchment and monthly evaporation data for the same years for the agro meteorological station
SCS Curve Number Henarathgoda together with daily flow data at Dunamale from 2005 to 2010 were used in the study. GIS
Snyder unit hydrograph layers that were needed as input data for the flow simulation were prepared using Arc GIS 9.2 and used
Clark unit hydrograph in the HEC-HMS 3.4 calibration of the Dunamale sub catchment using daily flow data from 2005 to 2007.
The model was calibrated adjusting three different methods. The model parameters were changed and
the model calibration was performed separately for the three selected methods, the Soil Conservation
Service Curve Number loss method, the deficit constant loss method (the Snyder unit hydrograph
method and the Clark unit hydrograph method) in order to determine the most suitable simulation
method to the study catchment. The calibrated model was validated with a new set of rainfall and flow
data (2008e2010). The flows simulated from each methods were tested statistically employing the co-
efficient of performance, the relative error and the residual method. The Snyder unit hydrograph method
simulates flows more reliably than the Clark unit hydrograph method. As the loss method, the SCS Curve
Number method does not perform well.
Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the demarcation of areas at risk of flooding, to the programming of

1.1. Hydrological simulation modeling
There is a need for supporting environmental planning choices
with simulation and prediction models, due to the development of
regulatory and planning tools, such as the river basin master plan,
which involve a direct link between the description of physical
phenomena (such as floods) and the attribution of land planning
constraints. The need of such a modeling system is stimulated, and
sometimes even enforced, by the many activities required by river
basin planning and management, ranging from timely flood alert to
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ94 777412089, þ94 11 2903402; fax: þ94 11
2914479.
E-mail address: mnajim@kln.ac.lk (M.M.M. Najim).
water budget at the basin scale, according to the national and
regional regulations in the field (Razi et al., 2010). With limited or
no data, the quantitative understanding and prediction of the
processes of runoff generation and its transmission to the outlet
represent one of the most challenging areas of hydrology. Tradi-
tional techniques for design flood estimation include the rational
method, empirical methods, flood frequency method, unit hydro-
graph techniques, and watershed models. The unit hydrograph
techniques and watershed models can be used to estimate the
design flood hydrograph in addition to the magnitude of the design
flood peak (Kalita, 2008). Hydrological modeling is a commonly
used tool to estimate the basin’s hydrological response due to
precipitation. The selection of the model depends on the basin and
the objective of the hydrological prediction in the basin
(Hunukumbura et al., 2008).

1364-8152/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.006
156 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162
1.2. HEC-HMS model for flow simulation
HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center e Hydrologic
Modeling System) model was developed by the US Army Corps of
Engineers (Feldman, 2000) that could be used for many hydrological
simulations. The HEC-HMS model can be applied to analyze urban
flooding, flood frequency, flood warning system planning, reservoir
spillway capacity, stream restoration, etc. (U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, 2008). The proliferation of personal computers and the
development of the HEC-1 model of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
in 1998 to a GUI (graphical user interface) based user-friendly HEC-
HMS model is available in the public domain, have come as another
useful tool to the field hydrologists. Unfortunately, the HEC-HMS
model, or any of the many watershed models for that matter, has
not found many takers due to the uncertainty involved in the esti-
mation of parameters of the models. But, parameter estimation on a
regional scale at least may be possible to switch over to watershed
models like the HEC-HMS and take advantage of the high speed
computer programs than spreadsheet exercises (Kalita, 2008).
The HEC-HMS contains four main components. 1) An analytical
model to calculate overland flow runoff as well as channel routing,
2) an advanced graphical user interface illustrating hydrologic
system components with interactive features, 3) a system for
storing and managing data, specifically large, time variable data
sets, and 4) a means for displaying and reporting model outputs
(Bajwa and Tim, 2002). This model is not calibrated and validated
for the Sri Lankan watersheds and need reliable data inputs to
check the suitability of the model for the study location and pur-
pose. Calibration of rainfall-runoff models with respect to local
observational data is used to improve model predictability. When
model results match observed values from stream-flow measure-
ment, users have greater confidence in the reliability of the model
(Muthukrishnan et al., 2006).
A total of nine different loss methods are provided in HEC-HMS
and some of these methods are designed primarily for simulating
events, while others are intended for continuous simulation.
Gridded Loss Methods and Soil Moisture Accounting Loss Methods
are not preferred for the simulation studies because they require a
high number of parameters. Among the remaining loss methods,
the simplest one “Initial and Constant Loss” method is selected for
the event based simulation studies. The method is simple and
practical because it requires only three input parameters such as
initial loss (mm), constant rate (mm/h) and impervious area (%). A
total of seven different transformation methods are provided in
HEC-HMS. Some of these methods are complicated which request
more inputs which are not available for most of the ungauged
catchments. Snyder unit hydrograph (Yilma and Moges, 2007;
Hunukumbura et al., 2008; Fang et al., 2005) and Clark unit
hydrograph (Cunderlik and Simonovic, 2010; Straub et al., 2000;
Banitt, 2010) methods have been applied successfully to simulate
long term stream flows elsewhere. Therefore a study was done
employing the three different methods of HEC-HMS 3.4 to calibrate
and validate it to Attanagalu Oya (River) catchment and generate
long term flow data for the Oya and tributaries. The methods used
in the study were Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss
method, deficit constant loss Snyder unit hydrograph method and
Clark unit hydrograph method.
2. Methodology
2.1. Study area
Attanagalu Oya catchment which is located between 7 6.600 e7
and 80 7.020 e80 5.220 E longitude was selected for this study. The river and its
tributaries are shown in Fig. 1.The studied catchment area is composed of the
Attanagalu Oya and Dee Eli Oya and it covers approximately 337.06 km2.
Considering the topography of the catchment area, it can generally be divided in
to three areas, hills (200 me400 m), plains (20 me40 m) and in between hills and
plains there is a middle elevation area (40 me200 m). In view of the landuse types of
the entire catchment, it can be generally divided in to agricultural areas, urbanized
areas, natural forest patches and scrublands. The basin lies almost entirely within
the ‘low country wet zone’ agro ecological zone; characterized by 75% expectancy of
annual rainfall of 1700 mme3200 mm.
2.2. Data collection
Daily rainfall was collected from five stations, Vincit, Chesterford, Kirindiwela,
Nittambuwa and Pasyala for the past twenty years (1991e2010). Monthly evapo-
ration data for the same years for the agro meteorological station Henarathgodae
Gampaha was used in the study. The rainfall data and the evaporation data were
obtained from, the Rainfall Division of the Department of Meteorology, Colombo.
Daily river flow data for the past six years (2005e2010) at Dunamale gauging station
of the Attanagalu Oya was obtained from the Department of Irrigation, Colombo.
Monthly minimum flows were considered as the base flow accordingly at the
Dunamale gauging station.
2.3. Data map preparation
Spatial data preparation was done using Arc GIS 9.2 software package. Data
maps that were needed as input data for the flow estimation were prepared. Area
covered by each landuse type, the total area of the catchment and the stream lengths
were measured based on the digitized maps. Within the main catchment, three sub
catchments (Pasyala, Nittambuwa, and Yakkala) were digitized according to the
distribution of rain gauge stations (Fig. 1). For the model calibration and validation
process, another sub catchment was digitized based on the Dunamale river flow
gauging station (Fig. 1) (latitudes e 7 6.500 N, longitudes e 80 4.450 E).
2.4. Model application
The daily stream flows were computed using the HEC-HMS 3.4 model and the
prepared data maps were used in the model. Watershed and meteorology infor-
mation were combined to simulate the hydrologic responses. Data that are required
for the hydrological modeling of the catchment are; area of the catchment and the
sub catchments, landuse patterns of the catchment areas, daily rainfall data, daily
river flow data, monthly evaporation data, base flow, peaking coefficient, impervi-
ousness, standard lag, initial deficit, constant rate, time of concentration, storage
coefficient and curve number. These values were taken considering the prominent
soil type in the catchment area. The main geological formations in the basin area are
laterite, unconsolidated sand, alluvium, peat deposits and crystalline basement
rocks (Wijesekara and Kudahetty, 2010).
2.5. Model calibration
Dunamale sub catchment was used to calibrate the model. Daily rainfall data for
three years (2005e2007), monthly base flows of the river, monthly evaporation data
of the catchment and the catchment area were inserted to the model. The model was
calibrated employing three different approaches in order to determine the most
suitable method for the study catchment. The flows simulated from each of the
methods were tested statistically.
2.5.1. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number loss method
For the calibration and validation process, Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve
Number (CN) loss method was used. The SCS CN method implements the curve
number methodology for incremental losses. Originally, the methodology was
intended to calculate total infiltration during a storm. The program computes in-
cremental precipitation during a storm by recalculating the infiltration volume at
the end of each time interval. Infiltration during each time interval is the difference
in volume at the end of two adjacent time intervals. The SCS CN method requires
percentage landuse pattern of the catchment and the sub catchments, total length of
the river and the elevation of the catchment area. SCS CN model estimates precip-
itation excess as a function of cumulative precipitation, soil cover, landuse and
antecedent moisture content (Feldman, 2000). The maximum retention and
watershed characteristics are related through an intermediate parameter, the curve
number. The CN values range from 100 (for water bodies) to approximately 30 for
permeable soils with high infiltration rates.
2.5.1.1. SCS Curve Number. The CN were taken as a weighted value based on
different landuses in the study area. Calculation of weighted curve number (WCN) is
shown by Equation (1),
Pi ¼ n
i ¼ 1 CNi $Ai
WCN ¼ Pi ¼ n (1)
7.880
N latitude
i ¼ 1 Ai
where, WCN is weighted curve number, Ai is area for ith landuse type and CNi is
curve number for ith landuse type. Curve numbers were taken from standard curve
 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162
Fig. 1. The drainage network, four sub-catchments and the location of the flow gauging station in the study catchment.
number tables (Schwab et al., 2005). Calculated weighted curve number was used in
the calibration of the model and was changed consecutively. The model simulation
was performed for each curve number separately in order to find the most suitable
curve number for the study area.
The area of the sub-basin which is impervious (%) needs to be specified as a
portion of total area. No loss calculations are carried out on the impervious areas
where all the precipitation on such portions become excess precipitation and sub-
jected to direct runoff.
2.5.2. Deficit constant loss method
The deficit constant loss method uses a single soil layer to account for contin-
uous changes in the moisture content. It should be used in combination with a
meteorological model that computes evapotranspiration. The potential evapo-
transpiration computed by the meteorological model is used to dry out the soil layer
between precipitation events.
2.5.2.1. Transform method. While a sub-basin element conceptually represents
infiltration, surface runoff and subsurface processes interact together with the actual
surface runoff. The calculation of the surface runoff is performed by a transform
method contained within the sub-basin. A total of seven different transform
methods are provided by the model. The deficit constant loss method was per-
formed in two different transform methods, namely the Clark unit hydrograph and
the Snyder unit hydrograph.
157
2.5.2.2. Clark unit hydrograph. The Clark unit hydrograph is a synthetic unit
hydrograph method. That is, the user is not required to develop a unit hydrograph
through the analysis of the past observations. Instead a time versus area curve built
into the program is used to develop the translation hydrograph resulting from a
burst of precipitation. The resulting translation hydrograph is routed through a
linear reservoir to account for the storage attenuation across the sub-basin.
2.5.2.3. Snyder unit hydrograph. The Snyder unit hydrograph is also a synthetic unit
hydrograph method. It was originally developed to compute the peak flow as a unit
of precipitation. Additionally, empirical methods have been developed for esti-
mating the time base of the hydrograph and the width at 50% of the peak flow. The
implementation used in the program utilizes a unit hydrograph generated with the
Clark methodology so that the empirical Snyder relationships are maintained.
The unit hydrograph technique is used in the runoff component of a rain event
to transform rainfall excess to out flow and it represents direct runoff at the outlet of
a basin resulting from one unit of precipitation excess over the basin. The excess
occurs at constant intensity over a specified duration. The deficit constant loss
method is designed as a simple, one-layer model for continuous soil moisture
simulation. The soil is assumed to have a fixed water holding capacity, fixed infil-
tration rate and the full potential amount is removed from the soil without ac-
counting for reductions due to increasing tension at low water contents. Simplifying
assumptions are made regarding soil dynamics so that infiltration only occurs when
the soil is saturated. Water is removed from the soil to simulate evapotranspiration.
158 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162

Potential evapotranspiration is computed by any of the methods available in the
program. While a sub-basin element conceptually represents infiltration, surface
runoff, and subsurface processes interacting together, the actual infiltration calcu-
lations are performed by a loss method contained within the sub-basin. The loss
models describe the precipitation loss as a result of interception, depression,
evaporation, etc. The SCS CN loss model calculates the rainfall runoff based on
precipitation, land use/land cover, and antecedent moisture. The initial abstraction
represents the precipitation depth before precipitation excess can occur. The CN in
each sub-basin represents the combination of the different land use/land cover and
soil groups in this sub-basin. The hydrologic characteristics of soils within a
watershed are a primary factors influencing the runoff potential (U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, 2008; Feldman, 2000; Cunderlik and Simonovic, 2010; Duan, 2011;
Fleming and Scharffenberg, 2012).
2.6. Statistical evaluation
James and Burgess (1982), Perrone and Madramootoo (1997), Babel et al. (2004)
and Najim et al. (2006) suggested a common method for the evaluation of time
series agreement by examining the sum of the squared differences. They have
suggested “coefficient of performance for the error series A” (CPA) which is used in
the studies related to hydrologic simulations (Equation (2)). They have further
suggested dividing the above term by the length of series to obtain a measure of the
error individual values within the series known as coefficient of performance (CPA0 ),
which is shown in Equation (3). The coefficient of performance approaches to zero as
the observed and the predicted values get closer. The equations to calculate the CPA
and the CPA0 are shown below.
X
N CN value was 20. Valid CN values for the model range from 100 (for
CPA ¼ ½Si  Oi 2 (2)
i¼1
CPA
CPA 0 ¼ P  2 (3)
N
i¼1 OðiÞ  Oavg
Si ¼ ith simulated parameter; Oi ¼ ith observed parameter; Oavg ¼ mean of the
observed parameter; and N ¼ total number of events.
In addition, the model performance was evaluated by comparing the simulated
and observed parameters in term of the relative error (RE) (Babel et al., 2004; Najim
et al., 2006). Relative errors, error/measured value, weigh the metric toward smaller
values since larger ones may only have small relative error. The majority of metrics
already defined can be calculated on relative errors (Bennett et al., 2013). The per-
centage RE is defined in the Equation (4).
 
Simulated  Observed
RE% ¼  100 (4)
Observed
The percentage RE is negative for under prediction and positive for over pre-
diction. Following the simulation process of three different methods, simulated
flows were statistically analyzed by using the CP method. Generated CP values were
graphically compared to find the coefficient of performance values that approaches
virtually zero. In addition the validated model was evaluated by residual method
(Bennett et al., 2013; Pauly, 1980). Bennett et al. (2013) stated that the most prev-
alent methods for model evaluation are residual methods, which calculate the dif-
ference between observed and modeled data points. The residual plot is a simple
graphical method to analyze model residuals. Of the many possible numerical cal-
culations on model residuals, by far the most common are bias and Mean Square
Error. Bias is simply the mean of the residuals, indicating whether the model tends
to under- or over-estimate the measured data, with an ideal value zero.
The calibrated model was used in the validation process with a new set of
rainfall data for the next three years (2008e2010). The parameters that were found
from the calibration and the validation processes were used in the model simulation
for the whole catchment. The calibrated and the validated model was applied to the
four sub catchments for daily rainfall values of fifty years. Daily flows were gener-
ated in cumecs (m3 s1).
flexible and site specific method for selecting appropriate design
values for estimating runoff.
The calibration process was continued by adjusting the SCS CN.
The model was initially run with the weighted CN (WCN) and the
CPA0 was calculated. The CN was changed by a certain percentage
until the results of the statistical evaluation gives a CPA0 value closer
to zero. The obtained CPA0 values observed for different CN values
are given in Table 1. The CPA0 values corresponding to the per-
centage reduction of CN for the upper Attanagalu Oya catchment
are shown in Fig. 2.
The results show the means of obtained CPA0 values (313.4) for
the three years of the calibration process (2005e2007) for the
Weighted Curve Number (WCN). The CPA0 values are far from zero
(Table 2). The CPA0 values gained from the calibration process are
having a negative correlation with the percentage reduction in the
CN. When the percentage reduction of the CN increases, the ob-
tained CPA0 values show a continuous decreasing trend (Fig. 2a).
When applying the SCS CN method for the Attanagalu Oya catch-
ment for the model calibration, calculated CN value was 70.9 and
the obtained CPA0 value was 313.4 which was extremely far from
zero. Most consistent CPA0 value gained from the calibration pro-
cess, which is closer to the zero, was 65.64 but the corresponding
water bodies) to approximately 30 for permeable soils with high
infiltration rates (Feldman, 2000). Therefore, the CN value of 20
cannot be taken for the calibration process.
The CN method was initially developed for agricultural and
natural watersheds, and extending it to rural urban watersheds, for
which the existing CN are not representative, can cause the model
to predict approximate runoff. Secondly, in the CN method, runoff is
directly proportional to precipitation with an assumption that
runoff is produced after the initial abstraction of 20 percent of the
potential maximum storage (Heshmatpoor, 2009). Moreover, the
CN method may not be valid for urban watersheds, where even
small rainfall events produce significant direct runoff because of
increased efficiency of surface drainage through storm-drainage
systems. The storage factor presumably becomes less and less sig-
nificant as more and more surface area is paved (Muthukrishnan
et al., 2006). A naturally occurring problem in applying this
method is the effect of basin wetness on the CN. Values of the CN
are expected to vary with the soil and site moisture. Another
problem with the CN method that could arise is the variable rate of
rainfall in time (Kovar, 1990).
Since the CN method was developed by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture and NRCS, there is a quandary when applying it to a
tropical region as it is originated in a temperate regime. Not only
studies in tropical regions but also in temperate regions with varying
climatic conditions experienced problems when the CN method was
Table 1
Three year means (2005e2007) of the CPA0 for different CN values.
Month Mean CPA0

CN 71 CN 65 CN 60 CN 55 CN 50 CN 45 CN 40 CN 20
3. Results and discussion
January 35.6 16.2 9.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
February 20.9 12.8 7.8 4.2 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5
3.1. Runoff by SCS CN method March 1167.8 996.6 848.3 699.5 554.3 416.9 292.0 11.4
April 847.4 798.0 747.0 686.5 616.4 536.8 448.6 75.4
The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) CN devel- May 232.6 223.9 214.4 202.7 188.2 170.8 150.1 39.3
June 627.0 613.5 598.2 578.3 552.9 520.6 479.9 202.5
oped by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and NRCS, formerly
July 138.4 136.4 134.0 130.8 126.6 121.1 113.9 56.9
known as the SCS, are used to estimate the runoff of an area or sub- August 257.7 254.9 251.7 247.4 241.6 233.8 223.4 132.5
area with a given type of cover, over a given soil, for a given depth of September 335.8 332.8 329.3 324.5 318.0 309.3 297.4 187.1
precipitation. A higher CN means more runoff where a CN of 100 October 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.7 20.3 19.7 13.8
means that all the rain will flow as runoff. CN’s are no greater than November 68.2 68.1 67.8 67.5 67.1 66.5 65.6 54.5
December 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 6.4
98, even for conventional pavements, since some small amount of Mean 313.4 290.2 269.7 248.1 225.2 201.0 175.5 165.6
rainfall will be held by the surface. The CN method provides a more
 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162 159

Descheemaeker et al. (2008) stated that in steep hill slopes with

natural vegetation in semi-arid tropical highlands of Northern
Ethiopia, the landuse type was an important explanatory factor for
the variation in curve numbers, whereas the hydrologic soil group
was not. The curve numbers were negatively correlated with the
vegetation cover. Taking antecedent soil moisture conditions into
account did not improve runoff prediction using the curve number
method. Runoff prediction was less accurate in areas with low curve
numbers. Senay and Verdin (2004) stated that the application of the
SCS CN method at larger watershed areas may result in an over-
estimation of the runoff when the substantial transmission losses
are not considered. Babel et al. (2004) and Najim et al. (2006) has
used the SCS CN method for runoff estimation in a mixed forested
watershed in Thailand and the runoff volumes calculated by the
model were within the acceptable limits but the SCS CN method
over estimated the peak flows. The Antecedent Moisture Content of
the Attanagalu Oya Watershed varies from time to time due to wide
spread rainfall pattern. This change does not correspond with the
weighted curve numbers used in the continuous simulations.
When considering the landuse types of the study catchment, the
upper catchment mainly consists of rubber plantations and can be
considered as a forested watershed. Therefore, greater fraction of
precipitation does not directly fall on the soil but remain as inter-
ception storage therefore there is an issue in calculated weighted
CN. Rubber is a deciduous plant in which leaves fall annually. In that
condition the calculated weighted CN may not be accurate for
Fig. 2. Percentage reduction in the parameters and the corresponding CPA0 for (b) the
certain periods on the year. Hawkins (1984) stated that the CN
Snyder unit hydrograph method and the Clark unit hydrograph method and (a) the procedure does not work well in karsts topography areas. This is
curve number method for the upper Attanagalu Oya catchment. because a large portion of the flow is subsurface rather than direct
runoff. In general, the CN method seems to work the best in agri-
used. Normally the CN for different landuse patterns are taken from cultural watersheds, next best for range lands and the worst for
standard CN tables (Sonbol et al., 2005), which occasionally may not forested watersheds. The above reasons could be attributed to poor
provide accurate results due to the range of climatic conditions. prediction of flow by the SCS CN method in the Attanagalu Oya
Atkinson (2001) stressed the need to use accurate predictions of the catchment. Under the SCS CN method, once the soil moisture deficit
CN in order to predict runoff from watersheds. is reach, no more rainfall is available for infiltration and the whole
The standard SCS method used to find the average CN for the rainfall contributes to runoff generation. As the soils in the Atta-
basins failed to estimate excess rainfalls correctly. This resulted in nagalu Oya basin are permeable, the runoff generated by the model
unacceptably large deviations of predicted peak discharges from is over predicted.
the observed ones. It is concluded that the use of standard SCS
tables of runoff CN in tropical climate may lead to large errors in
runoff estimates. Prior to the application of the standard SCS 3.2. Runoff by deficit constant loss method
method, suitability of this method should be verified or altogether
replaced by a method deriving CN values from local rainfall runoff Due to the uncertainty in the SCS Curve Number method, deficit
data (Muzik, 1993). Knebl et al. (2005) stated that decreasing the CN constant loss method was performed with two different transform
increased the amount of recharge into the watershed system in San methods (Clark unit hydrograph and Snyder unit hydrograph). The
Antonio river basin in the United States and therefore reduced deficit constant loss method requires similar values for initial
overestimation of runoff in the model. deficit (mm), maximum storage (mm), constant rate (mm/h) and
imperviousness (%) for both the Clark unit hydrograph and the
Table 2 Snyder unit hydrograph transform methods. The Clark unit
Mean values of the observed flows, the simulated flows, employing the Snyder unit
hydrograph method requires time of concentration (h) and storage
hydrograph method, the CPA0 values and the relative errors of validation results for
the next three years (2008e2010). coefficient (h) whereas the Snyder unit hydrograph requires stan-
dard lag (h) and peaking coefficient.
Month Simulated flows Observed flows CPA0 Relative
The model was initially run with the calculated model param-
(m3 s1) (m3 s1) error (%)
eters and the coefficient of performance (CPA0 ) was calculated. To
January 2.06 1.59 1.14 þ0.30
February 0.87 0.85 0.48 þ0.02
find the most suitable values for the best performance of the model
March 3.71 3.97 0.68 0.07 that gives most reliable CPA0 value, the constant rate (mm/h) of the
April 6.97 7.41 0.71 0.06 Snyder unit hydrograph method and the Clark unit hydrograph
May 14.34 11.09 0.94 þ0.29 method were changed by a certain percentage until the results of
June 10.13 9.29 1.33 þ0.09
the statistical evaluation give a CPA0 value closer to zero.
July 6.66 6.27 0.67 þ0.06
August 2.17 1.91 0.94 þ0.14 The results showed that the model is giving a best simulation
September 5.08 4.82 0.66 þ0.05 result with a CPA0 reaching to 1.15 for the Snyder unit hydrograph
October 15.88 12.94 0.98 þ0.23 method when the percentage reduction of the initial constant rate
November 16.25 11.78 2.33 þ0.38 (ICR) is 50% (Fig. 2b). For the Clark unit hydrograph model, the best
December 9.92 9.19 0.94 þ0.08
Mean 0.98 þ0.12
simulation result is given with a CPA0 reaching to 1.02 when the
percentage increase of the initial constant rate (ICR) is 33% (Fig. 2b).
160 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162
Fig. 3. Frequency distribution of the 2192 residuals; suggesting a normal distribution.
The obtained CPA0 decreased to a minimum from the initial value
and increased exponentially with the increase of percentage
reduction in the constant rate in both the Snyder unit hydrograph
and the Clark unit hydrograph methods. Considering the mean
values of the two transform methods, the Snyder unit hydrograph
method gives a CPA0 value closer to zero (1.33) while the CPA0 of the
Clark unit hydrograph differs much from zero (10.16).
According to the obtained results, the most reliable CPA0 value
gained from the calibration process, which is closer to the zero
(Clark unit hydrograph e 10.16, Snyder unit hydrograph e 1.33),
was achieved from the Snyder unit hydrograph method. The Clark
unit hydrograph is used for modeling direct runoff (Cunderlik and
Simonovic, 2005). In the Clark method, overland flow translation
is based on a synthetic timeearea histogram and the time of con-
centration (Cunderlik and Simonovic, 2010). Straub et al. (2000)
noted that the Clark unit hydrograph method is commonly
applied for hydrologic designs. Banitt (2010) has used the HEC-HMS
with the Clark unit hydrograph method to transform the rainfall
into runoff to generate 100-year simulations of natural, existing
and alternative operation plans for the Salt River watershed, in the
Mississippi River basin. The results from the HEC-HMS model filled
the actual stream gauge data gaps. Schoener (2010) modeled all the
sub-catchments in Rio Rancho area in Central New Mexico by using
the HEC-HMS model that, performed by using the Clark unit
hydrograph method. With the low imperviousness, the peak flow
rates were significantly higher. The Clark unit hydrograph method
also could be used to estimate runoff in tropical watersheds as it
provides reasonable output compared to the SCS-CN method.
3.3. Model validation
Means of the observed flows, the simulated flows, the CPA0
values and the relative errors of validation results employing the
Snyder unit hydrograph of the deficit constant loss method for the
next three years (2008e2010) were shown in the Table 2. Observed
and simulated flows for three years of validation period 2008e2010
are shown in Fig. 4. The CPA0 value of the flow generated by the
validation process (0.98) is much smaller than the CPA0 for the
calibration process (1.33). The CPA0 generated for the validation
process is also satisfactory as it is closer to zero. The results from the
validation show that most of the events simulated the flow within a
mean of 0.12% of relative error thus these results confirm the
calibration process. The calculated model parameters for the cali-
brated and the validated model employing the Snyder unit
hydrograph of the deficit constant loss method were standard lag
41.1 h and peaking coefficient 0.2, respectively.
According to the frequency analysis of regression ANOVA, 68% of
the model predictions are within 1 SD rage and 95% of the model
predictions are within 2 SD range. According to Bennett et al.
(2013) and Pauly (1980), the coefficient of the model output of
the regression line at the a level of confidence shows the F statistics
which suggest that the residuals are normally distributed at
P < 0.000. The relative error of 0.12% generated for this analysis
thus confirms the satisfactory performance of the calibrated and
the validated model (Fig. 3). Bennett et al. (2013) stated that the
residual plot reveals unmodelled behavior when there is systematic
divergence from zero. For instance, high density of negative values
indicates that the model tends to underestimate correct values.
If there is a sudden heavy rainfall after 2e3 weeks of dry spell, the
model tends to over predict the runoff. Daily rainfall that are more
than 40 mm receiving continuously more than one week also tends
to over predict runoff. These over predictions are shown by the re-
siduals that are more than þ1 SD. The runoff is under predicted by
the model when a high rainfall event is received within a longer dry
spell which is shown by the residuals that are less than 1 SD (Fig. 3).
Fig. 4 compares the observed and the simulated flows through
out the validation years and show a similar pattern of observed
flows throughout the year.
Fang et al. (2005) stated that in Snyder’s method, for developing
a synthetic unit hydrograph, it is assumed that the lag time is
constant for the particular watershed and is not influenced by the
variation in the rainfall intensity. Hunukumbura et al. (2008) has
used the Snyder unit hydrograph method as the transformation
method to estimate the runoff from the Upper Kotmale basin.
Though the model predicts reasonable flows, the model cannot
predict flow accurately to the variations in landuse in the Upper
Kotmale basin.
Yilma and Moges (2007) applied the HEC-HMS model for both
long term and short term runoff simulations in Ethiopian Nile river
basin. The Snyder unit hydrograph and method of base flow esti-
mation was found as the best model for short period flood fore-
casting. In accordance with the same criteria, model combination
containing the deficit and constant loss, the Snyder unit hydro-
graph as a flood forecasting model, has given satisfactory results for
long term simulations for the study area. Kalita (2008) has used the
HEC-HMS program reliably for design flood estimation in South
Brahmaputra by using the Snyder unit hydrograph method.
Properly calibrated and validated HEC-HMS model can be used
in many hydrological applications. Gichamo et al. (2012) applied a
hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow
through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived
hydrographs to simulate flooding on a part of Tisza River, Hungary
and showed that this approach could be successfully used in areas
with topographic data scarcity. Castronova and Goodall (2013)
successfully employed the HEC-HMS to test the performance of
the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) Software Development Kit
(SDK) where infiltration, surface runoff, and channel routing pro-
cesses are each implemented as independent model components.
The HEC-HMS, a one dimensional model which is not appro-
priate to simulate flood hydrographs because of its inability to
simulate the lateral diffusion and inaccuracies due to cross-
sectional discretization (Bates and De Roo, 2000). Instead,
Kalyanapu et al. (2011) showed Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)
enabled two dimensional flood models can be more accurately
used in large domain flood modeling studies such as dam breaks. Qi
and Altinakar (2011) applied widely used and accepted HEC-RAS
dam break simulation and HEC-FDA to compare the results
generated from a two dimensional CCHE2D-Flood and DSS system.
In addition the HEC-HMS can be used to simulate continuous river/
stream flows that can be used to evaluate hydrologic flow regimes
and environmental flows.
 D. Halwatura, M.M.M. Najim / Environmental Modelling & Software 46 (2013) 155e162
Fig. 4. Observed and simulated flows of year 2008e2010.
4. Conclusion
The HEC-HMS 3.4 computer model can be reliably used to
simulate Attanagalu Oya flows with calibration and validation. As
the transformation method in the model, the Snyder unit hydro-
graph method simulates flows more reliably in the study catch-
ment than the Clark unit hydrograph method. As the loss method,
the SCS CN method does not perform well but the deficit and
constant method is a good option. Therefore, the Snyder unit
hydrograph method could be recommended as the best trans-
formation method for the Attanagalu Oya basin with the deficit and
constant method as the loss method. As there are plenty of un-
gauged rivers located in the wet zone in Sri Lanka, this approach
can reliably be applied in order to simulate river flows in the
country and also same approach of calibration and validation can
be applied in other parts of the tropics.
Acknowledgments
Our heartfelt thanks go to Director General, Department of
Meteorology and Director General, Department of Irrigation for
providing meteorological data and flow data, respectively. We are
also thankful to the General Manager, Water Supply and Drainage
161
Board, Ratmalana, for providing the past and future water extrac-
tion data of the Attanagalu Oya basin.
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