March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

Ethanol Futures (cts/gal contract price)

April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 Ethanol Market Overview:
CBOT 134.30 135.60 136.40 136.90 Prices ease as Midwest rail lines recover
Settlement Thursday, February 28, 2019 Source: Chicago Board of Trade
from winter storm
Chicago ethanol spot prices turned softer
Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices ahead of the weekend after holding steady
U.S. RINs (prices in U.S. $/RIN) for several trading days. Despite a nationwide
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg.
supply draw, weekly government figures revealed
swelling Midwest ethanol supply even before
U.S. Ethanol RINs
a snowstorm added to already problematic
Current Yr 0.2250-0.2300 0.2300-0.2400 0.2275-0.2350 0.2225-0.2275 0.2100-0.2200 0.22675
logistics in the region.
Previous Yr 0.2000-0.2050 0.2000-0.2100 0.2025-0.2100 0.2000-0.2050 0.1900-0.2000 0.20225
Railroads reported delays of up to 72 hours
U.S. Cellulosic RINs
for shipping through storm-impacted areas
Current Yr 1.8000-1.8200 1.8000-1.8200 1.8000-1.8200 1.8000-1.8200 1.7900-1.8100 1.80800
that included wide areas of Nebraska, Iowa,
Previous Yr 1.8400-1.8600 1.8400-1.8600 1.8400-1.8600 1.8200-1.8400 1.8200-1.8400 1.84200 Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Trade sources
U.S. Biodiesel RINs noted huge snowdrifts blocking tracks and
Current Yr 0.5500-0.5550 0.5600-0.5650 0.5450-0.5600 0.5250-0.5500 0.5100-0.5350 0.54550 halting some unit trains earlier last week in the
Previous Yr 0.5175-0.5200 0.5150-0.5300 0.5100-0.5200 0.5000-0.5100 0.4800-0.5000 0.51025 aftermath of heavy snowfall last weekend. The
U.S. Advanced Biofuel RINs domino effect reportedly left some western
Current Yr 0.5200-0.5400 0.5300-0.5500 0.5050-0.5300 0.4850-0.5200 0.4800-0.5000 0.51600 destinations short on ethanol and plants short
Previous Yr 0.4900-0.5100 0.4875-0.5200 0.4700-0.5000 0.4600-0.4900 0.4400-0.4800 0.48475 on railcars with slow returns. And the freeze also
reportedly hampered production in parts of the
Chicago (prices in U.S. $/gal.) upper Midwest.
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg.
“Slowly digging out, then more snow,” said one
Ethanol 1.3500-1.3550 1.3400-1.3450 1.3400-1.3450 1.3375-1.3425 1.3275-1.3300 1.34125
Midwest producer, “but progress being made.”
DP ETH 1.3400-1.3525 1.3400-1.3450 1.3400-1.3450 1.3400-1.3450 1.3200-1.3400 1.34075
One railroad source said a return to normal
B100 SME 2.6700-3.0100 2.6600-3.0000 2.6600-3.0000 2.6400-2.9800 2.6400-2.9800 2.82400 operation may be reached by the end of the week,
RBOB Unl 1.6287-1.6562 1.5587-1.5737 1.5943-1.6193 1.6506-1.6606 1.6173-1.6573 1.62167 but some producers remained concerned that
RBOB Pre 1.8837-1.9112 1.8137-1.8287 1.8493-1.8743 1.9056-1.9256 1.8773-1.9173 1.87867 slow car turnarounds would continue to impact
CBOB Unl 1.5887-1.6162 1.5187-1.5337 1.5543-1.5793 1.6106-1.6306 1.5823-1.6223 1.58367 shipping even if the weather starts to cooperate.
ULSD 2.0111-2.0211 1.9748-1.9873 2.0081-2.0131 2.0171-2.0271 2.0198-2.0323 2.01118
On top of rail problems, reports of river freezing
Chicago Rule 11 (prices in U.S. $/gal.)
affected barge traffic in upper Midwest areas,
while flooding began to emerge as a problem in
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg.
lower areas of the Mississippi and its tributaries.
Current Yr 1.3300-1.3350 1.3300-1.3400 1.3250-1.3350 1.3400-1.3450 1.3350-1.3450 1.33600

See page 2 for more spot pricing locations  continued on page 3

In Each Issue ...

Ethanol Market Overview .......................... 1
Ethanol and Gasoline
Component Spot Prices ........................ 1-3
Block Term Contract Prices
in Key Markets........................................... 4
Bulk Truck Spot Prices
in Key Markets........................................... 4
Renewable Fuels Averages........................ 5
Biofuels Stock Performance...................... 6
Inside Washington..................................... 7
Key Supply and Demand
Statistics.................................................... 8
In Key Commodity Markets....................... 9
Biodiesel/Ethanol Plant Profitability.........10
Renewable Fuel Feedstock/
Co-Product Price Index............................11
European, Brazilian and
CBI Markets..............................................13
News of the Week.....................................15

Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service is published by OPIS by IHS Markit | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645
 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

Methodology and Definitions:

Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices (prices in U.S $/gal.) OPIS derives ethanol, gasoline and biodiesel prices
Gulf Coast from many means, including surveying buyers and
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg.
sellers via phone/e-mail, and receiving postings
electronically from producers and purchasers. While
Ethanol 1.4400-1.4500 1.4400-1.4600 1.4400-1.4500 1.4350-1.4450 1.4300-1.4400 1.44300
OPIS makes best efforts to ensure the accuracy and
B100 SME 2.6500-2.9800 2.6400-2.9700 2.6400-2.9700 2.6200-2.9500 2.6200-2.9500 2.79900 timeliness of its prices, it in no way guarantees either
RBOB Unl 1.5844-1.5944 1.5137-1.5237 1.5793-1.5893 1.6321-1.6381 1.6348-1.6448 1.59346 the accuracy or timeliness of any of the data included
RBOB Pre 1.7044-1.7144 1.6387-1.6487 1.6993-1.7093 1.7696-1.7756 1.7923-1.7973 1.72496 herein. Definitions are as follows:
CBOB Unl 1.5744-1.5819 1.4962-1.5037 1.5618-1.5668 1.6121-1.6181 1.6123-1.6223 1.57496 Ethanol Spot Price (Bulk Barge/Rail): These are
Unleaded 1.6114-1.6144 1.5337-1.5437 1.5943-1.6018 1.6431-1.6456 1.6398-1.6448 1.60726 large quantity pure ethanol deals transacted or being
ULSD 1.9771-1.9801 1.9218-1.9233 1.9466-1.9516 1.9696-1.9746 1.9723-1.9823 1.95993
discussed in certain FOB markets.
61ULSD 1.9771-1.9801 1.9218-1.9233 1.9466-1.9516 1.9696-1.9746 1.9723-1.9823 1.95993 Brazil Ethanol: Undenatured anhydrous ethanol
cargoes, FOB Brazil terminals for export, typically
New York 50,000 bbl or more available 5-30 days from the date
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. of publication. The assessment generally reflects
Ethanol 1.4400-1.4600 1.4400-1.4500 1.4550-1.4600 1.4500-1.4550 1.4450-1.4500 1.45050 price at the Santos export terminal, though others
ITT ETH 1.4500-1.4700 1.4500-1.4600 1.4650-1.4700 1.4600-1.4650 1.4550-1.4600 1.46050 may be used for assessment purposes.
Ethanol Fwd 1.4550-1.4650 1.4400-1.4450 1.4550-1.4650 1.4550-1.4650 1.4400-1.4500 1.45350 Block Term Contract Values: These are the
B100 SME 2.7400-2.9900 2.7300-2.9800 2.7300-2.9800 2.7100-2.9600 2.7100-2.9600 2.84900 three-to-six month contract deals between large
buyers and sellers of pure ethanol. Some are
RBOB Unl 1.6062-1.6162 1.5362-1.5462 1.5803-1.5903 1.6290-1.6390 1.6168-1.6268 1.59870
done as fixed, and those deals are reported in the
RBOB Pre 1.7712-1.7812 1.6952-1.7052 1.7313-1.7413 1.7790-1.7890 1.7743-1.7843 1.75520
“Fixed” column. Other deals are done based on a
CBOB Unl 1.6047-1.6147 1.5367-1.5467 1.5813-1.5913 1.6265-1.6365 1.6168-1.6268 1.59820 differential to certain gasoline benchmarks (usually
CBOB Pre 1.7962-1.8062 1.7502-1.7602 1.7713-1.7813 1.8190-1.8290 1.8143-1.8243 1.79520 conventional spot unleaded). Those formulae are
ULSD 2.0261-2.0361 1.9696-1.9796 1.9935-2.0035 2.0166-2.0266 2.0185-2.0285 2.00986 tracked and reported by market each week in the
“Formula”column and calculated (based on the
Los Angeles closing Thursday price of the gasoline benchmark)
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. to arrive at a “Formula Calculated” price. All deals
Ethanol 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5200-1.5500 1.53900 (“Fixed” and “Formula”) are reported from a weighted
CARBOB - R 1.8819-1.8919 1.8037-1.8212 1.7843-1.8043 1.8356-1.8456 1.8423-1.8573 1.83681 average survey.
CARBOB - P 1.9819-1.9919 1.8937-1.9112 1.8743-1.8943 1.9256-1.9356 1.9323-1.9473 1.92881 Bulk Truck Spot Prices (Rack): These are the
ULSD 1.9951-2.0051 1.9448-1.9548 1.9756-1.9806 2.0021-2.0121 2.0198-2.0223 1.99123 prices for truck quantities of pure ethanol at storage
points in the given market. These prices are not
Nebraska (fob Railcar) posted – they are offered to buyers given supply
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. and demand dynamics at prices discovered and
Ethanol 1.2300-1.2500 1.2400-1.2500 1.2500-1.2700 1.2500-1.2800 1.2400-1.2800 1.25400 published by OPIS.
Tampa Splash Blend Rack Prices: These are the average
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. of the Thursday closing price that producers and
resellers are posting at various rack locations.
Ethanol 1.5200-1.5500 1.5300-1.5600 1.5300-1.5700 1.5300-1.5800 1.5200-1.5800 1.54700
Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers
Dallas pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts.
Ethanol 1.4200-1.4300 1.4100-1.4500 1.4200-1.4800 1.4200-1.4600 1.4100-1.4600 1.43600 Splash Blend Producer Prices: These are the
San Francisco average of the Thursday closing price that producers
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg.
(not resellers) are posting at various rack locations.
Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers
Ethanol 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5500 1.5200-1.5500 1.53900
pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver
Washington ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts.
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credits: Traded in
Ethanol 1.4650-1.5000 1.4550-1.4650 1.4600-1.4700 1.4550-1.4650 1.4500-1.4750 1.46600 U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2),
this represents the daily traded price range or range
of bids and offers on carbon credits generated for
compliance under California’s Low Carbon Fuel
Standard program implemented by the California Air
Resources Board. Trading is for credits transferable
in the current calendar year, until the last month of the
year when deals for the following year may also be
considered.

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 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

California Low Carbon Fuel Standard when ethanol in the region dried up by the same
Carbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal) amount. The weekly build also took inventory in
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. the Midwest to a 1.9% year-on-year surplus, the
Carb Credit 195.000-197.000 195.000-197.000 196.000-197.000 196.000-197.000 194.000-196.000 196.0000 first surplus versus a year-ago since October.
CI Pts BD 0.0246-0.0249 0.0246-0.0249 0.0247-0.0249 0.0247-0.0249 0.0245-0.0247 0.02472
The regional supply numbers from EIA, in fact,
CI Pts Eth 0.01589-0.01606 0.01589-0.01606 0.01598-0.01606 0.01598-0.01606 0.01581-0.01598 0.015977
showed a great deal of variation for the week,
CC Dsl 0.1647-0.1664 0.1647-0.1664 0.1655-0.1664 0.1655-0.1664 0.1638-0.1655 0.16553 including a massive 707,000 bbl draw on Gulf
CC Gas 0.1769-0.1787 0.1769-0.1787 0.1778-0.1787 0.1778-0.1787 0.1760-0.1778 0.17780 Coast stocks to 4.303 million bbl, and a large
CC Dsl 95 0.1564-0.1580 0.1564-0.1580 0.1572-0.1580 0.1572-0.1580 0.1556-0.1572 0.15720 217,000 draw out of West Coast supply that, at
CC Gas 90 0.1592-0.1609 0.1592-0.1609 0.1600-0.1609 0.1600-0.1609 0.1584-0.1600 0.16004 2.538 million bbl, dropped it behind year-ago
Oregon Clean Fuels Program inventory for the first time this year.
Carbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal)
Meantime, ethanol plants boosted production
Fri. 02/22 Mon. 02/25 Tues. 02/26 Wed. 02/27 Thurs. 02/28 Wkly. Avg. over the week, gaining back nearly all they
Carb Credit 145.000-150.000 145.000-150.000 145.000-150.000 148.000-152.000 148.000-152.000 148.5000 dropped the week before, adding 32,000 b/d,
CI Pts BD 0.0183-0.0189 0.0183-0.0189 0.0183-0.0189 0.0187-0.0192 0.0187-0.0192 0.01873 but the 1.028 million b/d they made trailed 1.5%
CI Pts Eth 0.01182-0.01223 0.01182-0.01223 0.01182-0.01223 0.01206-0.01239 0.01206-0.01239 0.012105 behind the year-ago rate.
CC Dsl 0.0679-0.0702 0.0679-0.0702 0.0679-0.0702 0.0693-0.0711 0.0693-0.0711 0.06951
Blending indications appeared mixed, but also
CC Gas 0.0630-0.0652 0.0630-0.0652 0.0630-0.0652 0.0644-0.0661 0.0644-0.0661 0.06456
slightly ahead of the same week last year. Ethanol
CC Dsl 95 0.0645-0.0667 0.0645-0.0667 0.0645-0.0667 0.0658-0.0676 0.0658-0.0676 0.06604
blender net input averaged 882,000 b/d, off 5,000
CC Gas 90 0.0567-0.0587 0.0567-0.0587 0.0567-0.0587 0.0579-0.0595 0.0579-0.0595 0.05810 b/d week-to-week but 6,000 b/d, or 0.68%, higher
Eth CI 69.89 1.5200-1.5400 1.5200-1.5400 1.5200-1.5400 1.5100-1.5400 1.5000-1.5400 1.52700 than the 2018 week.
Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com

Railcar values in the Midwest picked up into the middle of Diamond Green Diesel to hit or beat nameplate
last week, though trading on nearby volumes remained thin.
FOB Nebraska material shipping on the Union Pacific and
output in 2019: Darling
on Burlington Northern Santa Fe lines this week traded up to The 275-million-gal/year Diamond Green Diesel (DGD)
$1.28/gal more than once, up as much as 7-8cts in the week- plant is expected to run “at or above nameplate” capacity
to-week comparison. in 2019 and deliver pre-tax earnings of between $1.25 and
$1.40/gal, Darling Ingredients Chairman and CEO Randall
Chicago in-tank trading also appeared subdued last week
Stuewe told analysts last week.
as values through midweek largely held within a half-cent or
so either side of $1.34/gal for late February and early March Darling and Valero Energy jointly own the Norco, La., plant,
transfers. But bids softened in the latter part of the week and the largest renewable diesel production facility in the U.S.
prices sagged, with some in-tank trading under $1.33/gal In a Thursday conference call with analysts to discuss the
before rallying a quarter-cent or so at last look. company’s fourth-quarter earnings, Stuewe said DGD posted
Corn markets steered mostly lower last week, especially 2018 EBITDA of $1.19/gal and that is 4.8% below the $1.25/
after optimism over U.S.-China trade talks that might include gal the partners had targeted for the year. He attributed the
corn and ethanol imports seemed to fade, eroding a possible lower earnings in part to a plant shutdown from mid-June
support for the market. Gasoline futures opened the last to early August as the companies worked to complete an
week with big losses on the NYMEX, but recovered with solid expansion that boosted annual capacity to the current 275
gains thereafter, only easing fractionally by Thursday as the million gal level, up from 160 million gal/yr.
contract readied to roll over to the pricier April futures. He added that the partners are awaiting approval of permits
Though weather remained the key focus for some and expect to begin construction soon on a 400-million-gal/
traders, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) year expansion that is scheduled to be online in the “latter
reported that ethanol supply slipped on the week even as part of 2021.”
production rebounded. At 23.709 million bbl, nationwide Stuewe said he remains bullish on demand for low-carbon
ethanol stocks eased 204,000 bbl the week ended Feb. renewable diesel both in the U.S. and internationally over the
22, off 0.85%, but that also left it 3.2% higher than in the next three to five years and appeared skeptical that several
same week last year. announcements last year about plans to build renewable
The nationwide draw, however, masked a hefty 539,000- diesel capacity in the U.S. will bear fruit.
bbl Midwest inventory build that swelled it by 6.6% on the “As for competition, it’s easy to put out an announcement
week to 8.671 million bbl. That is the largest EIA-reported on paper, but it takes a lot of time and money to build plants,”
supply move in the Midwest since the first week of June

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 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

Stuewe said, adding that he believes DGD has a “first-mover”
advantage in the U.S. market. “That said, I believe margins
are attractive and honey will attract flies. Time will tell how
many of these [projects] are real.”
Further, he said that based on conversations the company
has had in Washington, he believes the $1/gal federal
blenders tax credit (BTC) will be reinstated. “Bipartisan talks
are underway” to pass a tax extenders bill that would include
the BTC. The company’s 2018 earnings would have been
about $90 million higher if the credit had been in effect.
If the tax credit is not extended, Darling said it expects to see
an increase in Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices to
compensate. “Overall, if we don’t see the BTC come back, then
we anticipate higher RIN prices will develop as we go through
the course of the year. How quickly that will happen is unclear,
but it is clear that they would have to rise to a higher level.”
In response to an analyst’s question about the value of
“separating DGD” as a stand-alone operation, Stuewe said
it’s too early to consider such a move. “We have a marriage
[with Valero] for a number of years. It’s premature to talk
about breaking [DGD] off. We’re always open to that, but
DGD is starting to show its value.”
He further told analysts the company believes the global
downturn in animal fats and used cooking oil prices is
beginning to turn around.
“Coming out of December and into early January [prices]
looked pretty week across the world, but that’s started
to improve and we’re starting to see some strength on
the West Coast.” Prices in Europe are also beginning to
strengthen, he said, and with China expected to produce
less fat this year, Stuewe said he expects supply and
demand to continue to tighten in 2019. “We’re pretty bullish
about the back end of the year.”
Jeff Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com
Advance BioEnergy eyes sale of South Dakota
ethanol plants
Among the “strategic options” that Minnesota-based
Advanced BioEnergy (ABE) began exploring recently is the
possible sale of one or perhaps both of its South Dakota
ethanol plants.
“After making continued capital improvements and
operational changes to capitalize on the strategic advantages of
ABE’s Aberdeen and Huron locations, ABE’s board of directors
has determined it is in the best interest of ABE’s unitholders to
explore strategic alternatives,” the company said last week.
The company’s announcement comes after a particularly
difficult year for the ethanol industry, which has seen both
margins and prices fall to multiyear lows. Not surprising then
that it also comes at a time when the plant-for-sale space
seems to have turned a little more active – late last month
White Energy inked a deal to sell its 55-million-gal/yr Russell,
Kan., plant to Strategic Value Partners and Cardinal Ethanol
confirmed it is looking into selling its 135-million-gal/yr Union
City, Ind., operation.
Advanced BioEnergy’s Huron plant has annual ethanol output
capacity of 32 million gal and is served by the Canadian Pacific
Railroad. In Aberdeen, the company owns a 46 million-gal/year

In Key Markets
Ethanol Buying Prices Ethanol Truck & Spot Prices
Ethanol Spot Price -------- Block Term Q4-Q1 Contract Values -------- Bulk Truck Splash Blend Splash Blend City, State Spot Prices Rack Price Producer
City, State (Bulk Barge/Rail) Fixed Formula Formula (calculated) Spot Prices (rack) Rack Price Producer Prices
(Rack) Prices
Albany, NY 139.50 147.50 142.50 N/A N/A
Cleveland, OH 139.25 149.23 N/A
Houston, TX 143.50 160.50 NYMEX RBOB 114.18 146.50 N/A N/A
Decatur, IL 132.00 N/A N/A
Unl -48.75
Des Moines, IA 128.00 140.34 140.13
New Haven, CT 148.25 167.50 NYMEX RBOB 117.18 N/A N/A N/A
Unl -45.75 Doniphan, NE 126.00 145.55 140.70

New York, NY 144.75 164.00 NYMEX RBOB 113.68 148.00 N/A N/A Fargo, ND 125.00 137.69 137.63
Unl -49.25 Indianapolis, IN 137.00 N/A N/A
Chicago, IL 132.88 155.00 NYMEX RBOB 104.93 136.00 135.00 135.00 Kansas City, KS 127.00 141.14 143.65
Unl -58 Madison, WI 134.00 151.04 N/A
Louisville, KY 135.00 N/A N/A N/A 138.50 N/A N/A Omaha, NE 129.50 136.70 140.35
Minneapolis, MN 130.00 N/A N/A N/A 134.00 141.70 141.70 Peoria/Pekin, IL 131.00 N/A N/A
St. Louis, MO 135.00 156.50 NYMEX RBOB 108.43 138.50 185.22 N/A Sioux City, IA 127.50 139.02 137.50
Unl -54.5
Sioux Falls, SD 127.00 139.07 138.88
Los Angeles, CA 153.50 166.00 NYMEX RBOB 129.43 162.00 N/A N/A
Topeka, KS 127.50 146.88 145.56
(79.9) Unl -33.5
Wichita, KS 129.00 150.83 146.56
Phoenix, AZ 152.00 162.00 NYMEX RBOB 124.43 155.00 150.00 150.00
Unl -38.5 Denver, CO 139.50 149.5 146.00

San Francisco, CA 153.50 166.00 NYMEX RBOB 129.43 162.00 N/A N/A
(79.9) Unl -33.5
Washington 146.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

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 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

plant and adjacent 9.3 million gal/yr facility. The location is on a
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway main line.
The smaller Aberdeen plant is one of the nation’s oldest
fuel ethanol facilities and it shut operations in 2016 due to
poor its poor economics.
In 2012, the company sold its 115 million gal/yr Fairmont,
Neb., ethanol plant to Flint Hills Resources.
“If the process does not identify one or more buyers willing
to acquire the assets on acceptable values and terms,” the
company said, it “expects to continue to operate these plants as
an independent operator and further improve their operations.”

National Renewable Fuels Averages

Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
136.782 149.996 168.724 149.576 232.946
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
366.363 219.890 207.909 --.-- 213.943 209.743

Key Renewable Fuels Regional Averages

Northeast
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
144.750 --.-- 171.183 158.217 277.866
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
334.000 217.366 215.787 --.-- 213.841 210.919

Southeast
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
144.750 154.800 167.691 170.972 224.339
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
359.450 209.063 212.300 --.-- 208.604 205.825

Gulf Coast
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
143.500 156.330 167.864 148.607 209.472
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
356.920 201.211 201.556 --.-- 209.507 207.907

Midwest
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
129.440 142.999 169.264 136.046 201.426
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
332.310 215.041 209.666 --.-- 211.522 210.629

Rockies
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
143.500 157.938 160.435 142.297 222.747
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
348.000 211.457 --.-- --.-- 212.530 205.538

West Coast
Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)
152.000 155.000 191.902 208.917 287.415
B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD
427.667 243.593 --.-- --.-- 229.321 --.--

@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 5

 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

ABE said it is seeking “an operator with the capacity and officials understand offering gasoline with 10 percent ethanol
resources to ensure both plants are best positioned for is a safe and economically sensible way to have cleaner air
continued long-term success.” and provide less expensive options at the pump for drivers in
Since 2011, ABE has made capital investments of $33.8 Mexico,” Lamberty said.
million in its plants to lower costs, improve operations, and Government officials have also expressed interest in more
expand production capacity, it said. ethanol in the Mexican fuel marketplace to address the
“The most-notable capital improvements have been adding country’s gasoline shortage, reduce the cost of fuel, and
corn oil extraction to both plants and beginning construction combat illegal fuel theft through gasoline pipeline tapping,
on a grain storage and receiving facility in Aberdeen that will Lamberty added.
allow the plant to further leverage the low corn basis in the Some new private fuel terminals in Mexico could be
region by developing the site that was originally designed to commissioned at the end of this year.
accommodate doubling Aberdeen’s nameplate capacity from For now, there could be potential for ethanol splash-
its initial 40 million gallons per year,” it added. blending operations in northern Mexico as wholesalers and
ABE retained Ascendant Partners, a financial advisory firm, retailers could use gasoline and ethanol terminaling facilities
to advise it during the process and help evaluate options. in the U.S., similar to the initial years of ethanol in many
“As the ethanol industry continues to consolidate U.S. markets when fuel buyers would bring their gasoline
and transitions to the next generation of technology trucks into an ethanol terminal for top-ups after loading clear
improvements, the ABE board of directors believes the time gasoline at a nearby pipeline terminal.
is right to formally evaluate strategic alternatives and to An introduction to potential ethanol splash blending in Mexico
position the ABE plants to provide continued value to their may offer possible gasoline blending profits, depending on an
local communities,” the company said. individual company’s appetite for risk and competition at the
Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com retail and wholesale levels. The pressing issue with ethanol in
Michael Schneider, mschneider@opisnet.com Mexico is the current lack of storage infrastructure to support a
bigger blending move south of the border.
Ethanol group eyes blending potential in Mexico Currently, Pemex’s gasoline supply contains no ethanol
The highly productive U.S. fuel ethanol industry had a due to a lack of ethanol-blending and infrastructure; however,
tough year as well as a difficult start to 2019, and the industry
is working hard to find bigger and broader outlets for the fuel Weekly Biofuels Stock Performance
– export hopes are a big part that effort and that brought one
Company Symbol 2/28/19 2/21/19 change % change
key industry trade group recently to Mexico.
Adecoagro SA AGRO ò 7.11 7.21 -$0.10 -1.39%
Ron Lamberty, senior vice president at The American Aemetis AMTX ò 0.93 0.98 -$0.05 -4.76%
Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), traveled to Merida in Mexico’s The Andersons, Inc. ANDE ñ 36.96 36.88 $0.08 0.22%
Yucatan peninsula recently to kick off its first ethanol
Archer Daniels Midland ADM ò 42.50 42.57 -$0.07 -0.16%
technical information forum in 2019 for Mexican petroleum
Bunge BG ò 53.09 53.48 -$0.39 -0.73%
equipment installers and retailers. Located in the northwest
Cielo Waste Solutions Corp CMC.CN ñ 0.11 0.11 C$0.01 4.76%
part of the peninsula, Merida receives gasoline shipments at
Cosan CZZ ñ 11.49 11.40 $0.09 0.79%
the port of Progresso, about 25 miles north from the city.
Darling Ingredients DAR ò 21.97 21.98 -$0.01 -0.05%
A private company is building a fuel-receiving terminal FutureFuel Corp. FF ò 18.45 19.00 -$0.55 -2.89%
at Progresso, and owners of the new facility attended the
GEVO GEVO ò 2.33 2.62 -$0.29 -11.07%
workshop, ACE noted.
Green Plains GPRE ñ 15.60 15.53 $0.07 0.45%
“Pemex has an older refined products terminal there, Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC ò 62.02 64.66 -$2.64 -4.08%
and the owners of this new terminal say they’re building it Neste NESTE.HE ò 84.50 86.56 -€2.06 -2.38%
recognizing it could be an attractive upgrade for the Mexican Novozymes NVZMY ò 45.37 46.34 -$0.97 -2.09%
oil company, as well as U.S. refiners right across the Gulf of Pacific Ethanol PEIX ò 1.16 1.17 -$0.01 -0.85%
Mexico,” Lamberty explained.
Renewable Energy Group REGI ó 26.57 26.57 $0.00 0.00%
“At the forum, I pointed out the economic advantages to REX American Resources REX ñ 79.89 79.12 $0.77 0.97%
bringing in ethanol as well, since it could lower costs and Valero Energy VLO ò 81.53 84.48 -$2.95 -3.49%
increase octane for any refiner who wants to start blending in Velocys VLS.L ò 3.54 3.75 -£0.21 -5.60%
the Yucatan,” he said. DJIA DJI ñ 25,916.00 25,850.63 $65.37 0.25%
“These workshops continue to help more Mexican fuel
marketers, equipment suppliers, and some government

@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 6


current regulations allows Pemex to blend up to 5.8% of
ethanol. On the other hand, other fuel suppliers in Mexico
could supply gasoline with up to 10% ethanol. Pemex is
seeking a level playing field, aiming to have an across-the-
board ethanol mandate for all suppliers at 5.8% or 10%.
The current inability of Pemex to even take advantage of
a 5.8% ethanol blend allowance reflects the difference in
CBOB specifications for gasoline produced by Pemex as
well as a lack of ethanol storage tanks. In theory, ethanol
is cheaper than gasoline, which would offer Pemex a more
favorable bottom line for gasoline blending and production.
However, suppliers with E10 gasoline could have a price
advantage over Pemex on the streets in Mexico.
A nationwide 10% ethanol blend rate in Mexico could
turn it into a 1.1 billion-1.2 billion gal/yr fuel ethanol market,
according to estimates from Mexican sources as well as the
U.S. Grains Council, numbers that would likely necessitate
significant imports. Even without the three major population
centers, Monterrey, Guadalajara and Mexico City, that
have been exempted from attempts to allow a 10% blend,
estimates are that it could create an annual ethanol market in
the neighborhood of 700 million gal.
Meantime, forums such as this initial 2019 effort by ACE
are a joint effort of the U.S. Grains Council and the Mexican
Association of Service Station Providers, to inform Mexican
petroleum marketers about opportunities in sourcing,
marketing and retailing ethanol-blended gasoline, as Mexico’s
transportation fuel sector continues to evolve, ACE said.
Two more workshops are planned for this spring, in
Monterrey and Tijuana.
Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com
Edgar Ang, eang@opisnet.com
Stock Market Movers
Gevo enters 10-year agreement to sell
isooctane to HCS Group
Renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels producer
Gevo on last week said it signed a 10-year deal worth as
much as $180 million to supply isooctane with HCS Group.
The company did not disclose the volume of the off-take
agreement, but Gevo CEO Pat Gruber in an email said the
volume is “significant,” adding that the company is “targeting a
buildout [at the Luverne, Minn., facility] of about 10-12 [million
gal per year] of hydrocarbons split between jet and isooctane.”
“[T]he split of the hydrocarbons can be 80:20 to 50:50 jet
to isooctane,” Gruber said, noting that the company could
make 100% isooctane and no jet, but “we plan on making
jet,” he said.
Germany-based HCS is a global manufacturer of specialty
products in the hydrocarbons sector and operates under the
brands Haltermann Carless, ETS Racing Fuels and EOS. HCS
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
will use isooctane in a range of applications, including racing
fuels and packaged fuels for small engines, Gruber said. 
The agreement was signed Feb. 21, the Englewood, Colo.-
based company said, and is subject to conditions, including
Gevo expanding isooctane production capabilities at its
Luverne facility.
“This long-term agreement and the capacity expansion
enables us to satisfy growing demand for our sustainable
ECO products in mass markets driven by global, blue-chip
accounts,” HCS Group CEO Uwe Nickel said in a statement.
“We see strong interest for our advanced bio-based products
in the outdoor power equipment and the cosmetics industries
as well as in a wider range of fuel applications.”
Gevo produces ethanol, isobutanol and high-value animal
feed at its Luverne plant. Gevo operates a production plant
in Silsbee, Texas, in collaboration with South Hampton
Resources Inc., to produce alcohol-to-jet fuel, isooctane
and ingredients for plastics like polyester. In addition, it has
developed technology to produce hydrocarbon products
from renewable alcohols. 
Gruber said the agreement replaces a five-year supply deal
Gevo signed with HCS Group in May 2017.
Molly White, mwhite@opisnet.com
Inside Washington:
Administration sends mixed message
on timing of E15 rule
Whether EPA will be able to issue by June 1 a final rule
granting an RVP waiver to E15 and making changes to how
RINs are bought and appears to still be something of an
open question.
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue took ethanol industry
groups by surprise Wednesday morning when he told the U.S.
House Agriculture Committee that a final rule “probably will not
be out” before the start of the high-demand summer driving
season. Perdue added that in the absence of final rule, EPA
would exercise “discretionary enforcement for those retailers
that want to continue to sell E15 in the summer.”
But shortly after press accounts of Perdue’s comments
began circulating, EPA issued a statement refuting the
secretary’s assertions, saying it is “planning on releasing”
a proposed rule in March and is “working expeditiously to
propose and finalize” it before the start of the summer.
And EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in remarks made to
the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture on
Wednesday afternoon advised officials to ignore reports that a
final rule would be delayed. “That is not a fact. We are working
hard to get it done before the summer driving season.”
Perdue got onboard with Wheeler later in the afternoon,
walking back his comment with a tweet that showed a picture
of him meeting in his office with Wheeler. “Great seeing
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 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

[Wheeler] here at USDA. Appreciate him moving expeditiously
to finalize E15 rule by the start of the summer driving season.”
Ethanol industry groups – which expressed concerns that
the five-week government shutdown left EPA with perhaps
not enough time to issue a proposed rule and complete it
by June 1 – wasted little time in sharing their concerns over
Perdue’s comments.
The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), a trade group that
represents ethanol producers, said in a statement that it was
“very disappointed to hear that the regulatory fix allowing
year-round E15 may not be completed by the beginning of
the summer driving season.”
RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said Perdue’s
suggestion that the waiver will not be in place by the start of
summer “represents a gut punch” to suffering farmers and
ethanol producers.
Cooper reiterated his call for EPA to break the rulemaking
into two parts, moving first on the E15 waiver, then
addressing changes to the RINs market in a later rule.
Growth Energy offered similar advice, urging the agency to
“move forward as quickly as possible with the E15 rulemaking
and hasten the process by considering so-called RIN reform
in the future.”
Jeff Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com
Grassley bill would revive biomass-based
tax credit for ‘18, ‘19
Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, on Thursday introduced a
bill last week that would extend the $1/gal federal biomass-
based diesel blenders tax credit (BTC) for 2019 and 2018.
In remarks earlier in the day at the Annual California
Advanced Biofuels Alliance (CABA) Conference in
Sacramento, Calif., National Biodiesel Board (NBB) CEO
Donnell Rehagen said he expected Grassley to offer the
measure and hoped the bill would provide a signal to House
leaders about how important the incentive is to the industry.
Congress in early 2018 approved an extension of the credit,
but only for 2017 production.
Grassley introduced the bill shortly after the Senate voted
to confirm Andrew Wheeler’s nomination to lead the EPA.
Rehagen said he acknowledged the strangeness of a
tax-related bill being introduced in the Senate when those
matters are typically handled in the House.
“We’ll see what that does, but I think it’s a very clear signal
from Senate leadership that they want to see that incentive
move forward,” Rehagen said.
“We’re hoping the House leadership will get that signal.”
Grassley in floor remarks urged the House to “send us a
tax bill to address the extenders without further delay.”
Rehagen said he remains optimistic that the BTC extension
can get done, at least retroactively for 2018 and for 2019, but
that other political factors have muddied those prospects.
“If there was a stand-alone bill on the biodiesel tax credit
introduced on the House floor tomorrow, I think it would win,”
Rehagen said. “But that’s just not how it’s going to work.”
The bill includes a number of extensions for “very popular tax
policies,” that have “wide, bipartisan support,” Grassley said.
The legislation is also sponsored by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).
“The right thing to do, right now, is to provide extensions
for at least 2018 and 2019. Long term, Congress needs to

Key Supply and Demand Statistics (thousand barrels)

Ethanol Supply Gasoline Supply Ethanol Production

Ethanol Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg Ethanol Current Prev Mo 3-Yr Avg
PADD 1 Inventories 7,824 7,653 7,772 PADD 1 Inventories 68,600 67,600 70,967 PADD 1 701 689 821
PADD 2 Inventories 8,671 8,132 8,383 PADD 2 Inventories 58,500 59,400 60,000 PADD 2 29,101 29,888 28,280
PADD 3 Inventories 4,303 5,010 4,159 PADD 3 675 773 777
PADD 3 Inventories 87,400 89,600 83,167
PADD 4 Inventories 374 364 374 PADD 4 431 434 423
PADD 4 Inventories 7,700 7,500 8,367
PADD 5 Inventories 2,538 2,755 2,571 PADD 5 606 596 574
PADD 5 Inventories 32,700 32,800 32,367
Total Inventories 23,710 23,914 23,259 Total Production 31,514 32,380 30,876
Total Inventories 254,900 256,900 254,867

Gasoline Production
Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg
PADD 1 3,109 3,132 3,040
PADD 2 2,438 2,500 2,463
PADD 3 2,544 2,556 2,149
PADD 4 307 305 294
PADD 5 1,506 1,520 1,579
Total Production 9,904 10,013 9,524

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[figure out] whether these programs are allowed to expire,
or if they should be phased out, or should they be made
permanent as current policy [or some other option]. Those
decisions need to be made after we resolve the short term
crisis caused by the current [situation],” Grassley said.
Jordan Godwin, jgodwin@opisnet.com
Molly White, mwhite@opisnet.com
U.S. Senate confirms Wheeler as EPA chief
The U.S. Senate voted 52-47 last week to confirm Andrew
Wheeler as administrator of the EPA, a seat he has occupied
as acting administrator since predecessor Scott Pruitt
stepped down last July.
Ethanol industry groups were quick to chime in and say
that they look forward to continue their working relationship
with Wheeler, but also took swipes at his predecessor.
“The previous administrator granted an unprecedented
number of refinery exemptions under the RFS, destroying
demand for billions of gallons of U.S. ethanol. Administrator
Wheeler must work quickly to repair that damage,” said
Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor.
“[The Renewable Fuels Association] looks forward to
continuing to work with him to implement a strong Renewable
Fuel Standard (RFS), make year-around E15 a reality and to
repair the damage done as a result of the unprecedented
number of small refiner waivers granted by his predecessor,”
RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said
And Brian Jennings, CEO of the American Coalition for
Ethanol, encouraged Wheeler to “expeditiously release a
legally defensible rulemaking for E15 for use year-round and
recommit to finalizing the rule by the June 1 summer driving
season. There are less than 100 days until June 1, leaving
no time for EPA to waste in publishing a proposed rule in the
Federal Register for public comment and to finalize the rule
before the low-RVP season kicks in.”
Ethanol vs. Spot Unleaded and “BOBs” in Key Markets
New York
Note: OPIS Refined Spots and Ethanol averages are based on full-day prompt assessments for each market.
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
Meantime, Scott Segal, the head of Bracewell’s public policy
group, called Wheeler “one of the most qualified individuals”
to lead EPA, adding that Wheeler began his career at the
agency, “gaining vital early exposure to the complexities of
environmental decision making.” He noted that Wheeler’s
experience in the private sector also provided him with
“valuable experience in seeing first-hand how regulations
impact businesses and their employees and communities.”
Molly White, mwhite@opisnet.com
In Key Commodity Markets:
In finished markets...
Gasoline futures remained in rally mode through most of
the last week with the now-expired March RBOB contract
posting gains in nine of its last 12 NYMEX trading sessions.
The spring-spec April RBOB will make its front-month debut
on a similar run higher, but the rally is not merely a front-month
event. The recent move to higher ground is probably the most
obvious signal that the RBOB market is poised for liftoff,
though gasoline markets – particularly in the period before
spring has sprung – are always susceptible to false starts.
Open interest numbers in the NYMEX trading data may
offer some clues on the readiness of the futures market to
begin its customary spring ascent. Through the middle of last
week, total open interest in RBOB was in freefall, dropping
in nine of the last 11 trading sessions. During that time, total
open interest fell by a little less than 24,000 contracts. In
addition, total open interest slumped to the lowest levels seen
since Jan. 4, a time of year when few traders have RBOB and
winter’s turn into spring under consideration.
The total open interest level is also below 400,000 contracts,
something that has not been too common in the past few
years, even at this time of year. Late-February total open
interest has not been so low since 2015, but that was when the
total size of the market at 400,000-plus was only a dream.
Chicago Los Angeles
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 9

Open interest in futures plunging when prices are rising is an
indication of short covering. With the market thinning out as
much as it has in recent weeks, there may not be many shorts
left in the market. That could leave the market vulnerable
to long liquidation should gasoline demand falter and crack
spreads improve enough to reverse some of the recent
economic run cuts. But the fact that the market has thinned
out so much may also leave room for traders to pile in on the
long side of RBOB futures.
A sustained rally in RBOB futures may also have some
support from recent market movements. Significant
narrowing took place in the March-April price spread
toward the end of the March contract’s life, but there
appears to be enough tightness in the physical supply of
winter-spec gasoline in the New York Harbor delivery area
to continue to support the futures contract in the first few
weeks of March. While there may be some head fakes
along the way, current market positioning appears to bode
well for players to jump in on the long side of the RBOB
futures market.
Even after dropping 47 points in Thursday trading, March
RBOB that expired at $1.6293/gal gained 1.49cts week-to-
week. At the same time, April contract that settled off 83
points Thursday eased by 1.55cts over the same week. And
the spread between the two contracts that ended at 12.3cts
narrowed from 15.34cts a week ago.
April crude oil on the Merc that bounced either side of $57/
bbl over the week, added 28cts Thursday to settle at $57.22/
bbl with a 26ct week-to-week gain. Reports of continued
OPEC-led supply cuts added support, but worries over
global economic weakness and decreased demand acted as
a counterbalance.
Plant Profitability
Biodiesel Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal)
*Biodiesel production margin calculated from cash feedstock costs and sales values for
soy methyl ester biodiesel plants and are estimates of industry trends under current market
conditions. Profits for any given biodiesel plant could be higher or lower.
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
Notably, too, and well beyond seasonal trends and market
expectations, U.S. crude inventories plunged 8.6 million bbl
in the latest EIA reporting week.
Meantime, gasoline cash market differentials shifted in a
big way as the reference month transitions from March to
April. Basis discounts in the low double digits were common
in markets east of the Rockies as the March RBOB futures
contract approached end-month expiry at strong levels,
especially compared with values seen for the April contract
that represented higher-cost low-RVP specification.
By Thursday, Gulf Coast CBOB spot discounts dropped
from the largest differentials as trading got done 13cts under
the Merc and outright values came in at $1.6223/gal, up 67
points day-to-day and 3.95cts week-to-week to touch multi-
month highs.
By late last week, utility outages at PBF Energy’s
Chalmette, La., refinery had most units operating at reduced
rates, according to a market source. U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) data for the week ending Feb. 22 showed
that regional gasoline inventories experienced the steepest
drop among U.S. markets in the week ended Feb. 22. Despite
stockpiles declining by 2.1 million bbl to 87.4 million bbl,
however, Gulf Coast inventories remained higher than the
five-year average.
Chicago CBOB that traded 15cts under the Merc Thursday
indicated outright values off 1.83cts for the day and at
$1.6023/gal were down 71 points over the week.
Midwest refinery utilization rose for a second-straight week
to 87.2% of capacity, according to EIA, and that followed
a drop to a to a three-month low amid a cold snap in the
region. But ExxonMobil’s 275,000-b/d Joliet refinery in
Illinois, experienced flaring in late February. The facility is
Ethanol Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal)
*Dry Milling margin calculated from cash feedstock and product sales values for wet and
dry-mill plants and are an estimate of the industry trend under current market conditions.
Profits for any given ethanol plant could be higher or lower.
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 10
 March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9

expected to undergo planned maintenance in April and May.
The EIA report released at midweek had U.S. gasoline output
down about 100,000 b/d, to 9.904 million b/d – a direction likely
aided by economic run cuts made by at least some refiners.
Total gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million bbl week-to-week.
Overall gasoline demand continued to recover from the big
declines in late January-early February. The 181,000-added
b/d in gasoline offtake over the report week represented
2.1% more than the week before and a 3.9% rebound over
the last two weeks that, at 8.981 million b/d, has demand
1.4% stronger of the same week last year. 
Gasoline retailer margins have taken a hit lately and those
in the Southwest are among the nation’s lowest, according
to OPIS data. Some metro areas such as Pensacola, Fla.;
Jacksonville, N.C.; and Columbus, Ga., all sport rack-to-retail
margins of less than a nickel on the gallon. Still, retailers in
the region are playing catch-up, as Southeast retail prices
lately climbed a bit more than wholesale values over the
previous seven days, providing some marketers with more
breathing room, as witnessed by several-penny margin
increases in those metro markets versus the previous week.

National Renewable Fuel Feedstock/Co-Product Price Index

Feedstock/Co-product Location/Source Spot Price Previous 4-Wk. Avg.
Palm Olein US/Gulf Coast $0.2995/lb $0.3080 $0.3074
Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois $0.2915/lb $0.2984 $0.2965
Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois - USDA $0.2931/lb $0.2984 $0.2964
Soybean Oil - RBD* Central Illinois - USDA $0.3230/lb $0.3299 $0.3295
Canola Oil West Coast $0.3980/lb $0.4149 $0.4105
Canola Oil Midwest $0.3755/lb $0.3924 $0.3880
Corn Oil - Crude Midwest $0.2565/lb $0.2565 $0.2565
Corn Oil - Refined Midwest $0.3565/lb $0.3565 $0.3565
Corn Oil - Distillers Midwest $0.2500/lb $0.2488 $0.2498
Beef tallow Chicago $0.2600/lb $0.2600 $0.2600
Choice White Grease Chicago $0.2500/lb $0.2500 $0.2500
Poultry Fat (Low FFA)** Southeastern US $0.2950/lb $0.2950 $0.2950
Yellow Grease Illinois $0.2050/lb $0.2050 $0.2075
Methanol US Gulf Coast $1.0850/gal $1.0350 $1.0538
Soy Meal (Hi-Pro)*** Illinois Truck $304.00/ton $305.00 $304.25
Corn Central Illinois $3.5800/bu $3.7000 $3.6900
Soybeans Central Illinois $8.7900/bu $8.8600 $8.8575
Crude Glycerin (80%) FOB Midwest $0.0750/lb $0.0750 $0.0750
DDG-S (Distillers Dried Grains w/ Solubles) Eastern Cornbelt - USDA $145.3750/ton $146.5000 $145.2813
Corn Kansas City - USDA $3.5950/bu $3.7150 $3.6769
ULSD OPIS National Average $2.0149/gal $2.0216 $1.9641
RBOB OPIS National Average $1.7148/gal $1.7156 $1.6515
Ethanol OPIS National Average $1.3678/gal $1.3609 $1.3485
Unleaded RFG OPIS National Average $1.6118/gal $1.5879 $1.5233
Natural Gasoline Mt. Belvieu Non-TET $1.2138/gal $1.1938 $1.1569
Natural Gasoline Conway In-well $1.1550/gal $1.0844 $1.0527
Ethanol RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.2150/RIN $0.2225 $0.2172
Ethanol RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.1950/RIN $0.1950 $0.1916
Cellulosic RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $1.8000/RIN $1.8100 $1.8200
Cellulosic RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $1.8300/RIN $1.8500 $1.8475
Biodiesel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.5225/RIN $0.5550 $0.5535
Biodiesel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.4900/RIN $0.5250 $0.5244
Advanced Biofuel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.4900/RIN $0.5350 $0.5263
Advanced Biofuel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.4600/RIN $0.5025 $0.5006
CA LCFS Carbon Credit California $172.5000/mt $171.5000 $171.7500
CA LCFS Carbon Intensity California $0.0141/CI $0.0140 $0.0140

*refined, bleached, deodorized **free fatty acids ***high protein Data provided, in part, by World Energy, www.worldenergy.net

@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 11


In natural gas...
The natural gas prices in most of the U.S. firmed over the
last week as cold weather boosted demand, but values by
the end of the week started to flatten and another pending
cold snap seemed to do little more than steady the market
ahead of the weekend.
Cash trading hand Henry-Hub spots rose 8cts Thursday to
$2.93/mmbtu, 22cts more than next-day deals reported a week
ago. Chicago Citygate gas prices traded down 4cts Thursday
at $2.91/mmbtu, but that still represented a 22-ct week-to-week
gain. Most other spot markets outside the West Coast held
higher over the week, despite stalling in week’s backend.
The stall that also showed up in NYMEX pricing late last
week was largely pegged to the fact that cold weather
expected over the weekend was already factored into prices,
according to market watchers. The weekly draw from natural
gas supply reported Thursday by EIA came in about 3%
below average expectations, but at 166 bcf it did outpace the
104 bcf five-year average draw as well as the same week last
year when the agency recorded 85 bcf pulled from storage.
“The average rate of net withdrawals from storage is 11%
lower than the five-year average so far in the [November through
March] withdrawal season,” said EIA in a midweek report.
NYMEX natural gas futures clipped gains following the
release of the report, but the March front-month contract
that expired earlier last week at $2.855/mmbtu still jumped
15.8cts since the previous Thursday. April became the new
front-month contract and after picking up 1.3cts Thursday to
$2.812/mmbtu the contract climbed 8.8cts week-to-week.
EIA reported total natural gas use dropped 3% week-to-
week. Still, analysts noted natural gas production in February
hit record levels. Supply over the EIA report week at 93.7 bcf/
day was unchanged from the prior week.
Even with cold in the forecast, robust production along with
a calendar that now has spring just a few weeks away, means
any market upside is going to face headwinds, analysts and
traders said.  an erosion in the value of biomass-based diesel Renewable
The Merc’s six-month futures strip averaged $2.8715/
mmbtu as it settled on the final day of February, up nearly
European Biodiesel Spot Markets
Rotterdam FAME ($/gal)
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
9.97cts on the week, but still falling by 5.85cts against Henry
Hub cash values for the day.
In corn markets...
Corn prices ultimately settled to the downside as February
ended and the March CBOT futures contract gave way to
May. March corn fell 1.75cts in Thursday CBOT trading to
$3.62/bu, marking a 13.5-cent week-on-week decline.
At the same time, May corn became the most active
contract and after trading down 3cts Thursday it also lost
13.5cts week-to-week to settle Thursday at $3.7075/bu.
The single biggest issue for corn last week remained
prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal. President Trump
did say there was enough progress to extend the March 1
deadline for a deal and reports are that U.S. negotiators are
focusing on expanding corn exports amid gene-modification
issues as well as reducing tariffs on U.S.-made ethanol. But
early optimism from the talks seemed to run out of steam by
late last week.
Neither did supportive export figures help stem selling
by late last week. The Export Sales report from USDA had
1.24 million metric tons of old-crop corn and 120,452 mt of
new crop corn sold over the week of Feb. 21. And while that
topped most trade forecasts, it was 20% behind the same
week of last year.
“The funds are selling,” is how one market watcher
described it late last week, adding that healthy export sales
were not enough to turn that around. But he also suspected
that some grain values were coming close to being oversold.
Corn cash bids dropped over the last week. Kansas City No.
2 truck yellow corn at $3.52-$3.67/bu slid from 10.5-13.5cts
week-to-week. Chicago No.2 yellow corn prices dropped 11.5-
13.5cts over the last week, at running $3.27-$3.48/bu.
In biodiesel...
A combination of higher biodiesel wholesale prices and
Identification Number credits last week ended a period of
improved blending economics for the biofuel.
Rotterdam RME/Gasoil ($/gal)
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 12

On average, B100 priced at U.S. racks climbed 7.5cts
week-to-week to $3.664/gal by Thursday. Petroleum values
also firmed last week, but not by as much and on-road diesel
racks that edged up 1.72cts week-to-week averaged about
$2.106/gal.
Current-year D4 RIN credits also eased off several cents
during the week and recent trading at 52.5cts/RIN would
indicate biodiesel might bring as much as 78.75cts in added
value for each gallon. That would still leave B100 averaging
about 77.05cts/gal more than petroleum diesel at the rack, a
calculated difference that expanded more than 15.4% in the
week-to-week comparison after tightening considerably over
the previous month.
“It’s a discouraging market,” said one biodiesel player,
adding that trading remains extremely tentative as the market
awaits a clearer picture over prospects for a revival of the
federal biomass-based diesel blender credit.
In DDGs...
Price moves for dried distillers grains in the Midwest appeared
minimal last week as was movement of product in general as
weather snarled shipping in much of the upper Midwest.
FOB spot prices for DDGs in both Iowa and Minnesota were
unchanged from week-to-week, at $125-$145 and $130-$135/
ton, respectively. Eastern Corn Belt values tightened over the
week, with the lower end of the price range up $3 and the
higher values coming in by $5, at $125-$180.
In Nebraska, some DDGs values added $9 on the week
though the cheaper end of the range held steady, with talks
at $130-$159. Kansas DDGs running $145-$165 showed no
change in week-to-week prices.
Meantime, DDGs for CIF NOLA tightened the price range,
running $184-$192 which was $2 up to $3 lower week-to-
week. Delivered DDGs to the Pacific Northwest at $202-$203
ere $3-$5 higher for the week, while California deliveries
running $200-$206 where split between $3 discounts and $3
gains versus the previous week.
Brazil and CBI Ethanol Spot
Anhydrous Ethanol FOB Santos vs. NYH, Tampa Spot ($/gal)
Brazil ethanol is anhydrous FOB Santos and includes a transportation fee and tax.
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
In natural gasoline...
After rallying to fresh highs at midweek, Mont Belvieu
natural gasoline backed off its peak and closed lower on the
last day of February.
Non-TET C5 prices began ramping up on Tuesday and by
Wednesday prices averaged $1.25625/gal. The uptrend was
tied to a brief period of short covering, but that rally fizzled by
Thursday, as prices closed at $1.21375/gal.
The Month-to-Date average for C5 was $1.159901/gal.
In other grades, TET crested at $1.25875/gal by midweek
and later fell to $1.21625/gal. Month-to-date, TET averaged
$1.165888/gal. Other non-TET (Targa) reached a high of
$1.26625/gal and later retreated to $1.22375/gal. The month-
to-date averaged $1.168125/gal.
Conway natural gasoline averaged $1.155/gal on February 28.
In Edmonton, natural gasoline was last seen at WTI, less $1.50/
bbl. Bakersfield natural gasoline averaged $1.296875/gal.
In ultra-low-sulfur diesel...
NYMEX front-month ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures that
found some upward momentum in the middle of the past
week still couldn’t overcome deep losses posted at the start
of the week.
Prices for crude oil and some refined products opened the
week early Monday morning by inching higher to levels not
seen since November in some markets, but that all changed
course after President Trump sent a tweet that appeared to
ask for more OPEC production, a sentiment that fueled a wild
selloff across the petroleum complex.
The front-month March ULSD contract on Monday shed
5.65cts to $1.9746/gal, the steepest day-on-day loss posted
in any session for the front-month contract so far in 2019. Just
two sessions earlier on Feb. 21, the contract was at $2.0363/
gal, the highest level since settling at $2.0864/gal on Nov. 19.
After the front-month March ULSD contract settled
Thursday at $2.0235/gal, up 19 points from Wednesday, the
Anhydrous vs. Hydrous FOB Santos ($/gal)
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 13

contract had firmed for three consecutive sessions, but still
stood 1.28cts below week-prior levels.
The forward-month April ULSD contract settled higher by
52 points on Thursday to $2.0273/gal, posting a week-on-
week dip of 74 points.
The basis down the curve of the ULSD futures was
particularly volatile throughout the week, and many market
players seem to have shifted away from seeking widening
cracks as IMO 2020 approaches.
The three-session rise was aided in part by bullish
indicators for most distillate figures in the latest weekly
update from EIA.
The put distillate supplies in the week ended Feb. 22 down
304,000 bbl to 138.379 million bbl, which was slightly higher
than the year-ago level of 137.985 million bbl, though still well
below the five-year average of 140.134 million bbl. Within
those figures, ULSD stocks posted a 712,000 bbl draw to
121.931 million bbl, which was about 2% higher than both the
year-ago and five-year average inventory levels.
Meanwhile, distillate production edged up by a mere 56,000
b/d to 4.815 million b/d, about 8% above year-ago production
rates. Distillate demand has tailed off a bit in recent weeks,
however, slumping by 140,000 b/d to 4.076 million b/d.
In ULSD cash markets, prices were little changed as
some discounts to the Merc widened slightly while others
went unchanged on the week. Gulf Coast ULSD saw
discounts on Thursday at 5cts under the NYMEX settle, up
a quarter-cent from the week-ago discount, with outright
prices indicated at $1.9773/gal. Chicago ULSD discounts
at 0.125cts were higher by 2.125cts from a week earlier,
indicated outright at $2.02605/gal.
European, Brazilian and CBI Markets:
RME FAME Ethanol T2
Rotterdam $3.21 $2.86 $2.39/€2.10
Prices in U.S. $/gal., 2/28/19. Data provided in part by Starsupply Renewables,
www.starsupply.ch, and SCB & Associates, www.starcb.com
European Markets
Germany’s CropEnergies AG will resume ethanol production
in its U.K. plant in Wilton, the company said this week.
Plans call for output to resume in early March and for the
facility to run initially at reduced capacity to supply orders
from British customers.
The development of the local British market for alternative
fuels is imperative for continuous operation of the plant,
the company said. “This includes above all the speedy
introduction of Premium E10,” it added.
CropEnergies said questions related to Brexit regarding
customs for imports and exports to and from the U.K. are of
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
“existential importance” for the plant and need to be clarified
immediately.
The company in November idled the plant, citing “difficult
market conditions.”
The plant has an annual production capacity of 400,000
cubic meters of ethanol and 350,000 metric tons of distillers’
dried grains with solubles. Up to 250,000 mt of CO2 were
delivered annually to a nearby partner company to be
liquefied for use in the food and drink industry.
The decision last year to idle the plant came after U.K.-
based Vivergo Fuels in September said that it would shutter
its plant in Yorkshire. The closure of that facility, which was
capable of producing 420 million liters (110 million gal) of
ethanol annually, was blamed on “the continued difficult
trading environment” and the British government’s delays in
implementing an E10 standard.
***
Biodiesel marketer and distributor Targray has opened a
European biodiesel trading desk in Geneva, Switzerland, the
company said this week.
The Canada-based company said as part of a broader
investment plan to meet demand for low-carbon fuels in the
European Union (EU), the Geneva trading desk will leverage
off Targray’s global franchise to create differentiated value for
biodiesel consumers throughout Europe.
Targray’s EU business will be led by biodiesel trader
Vincent Cariou, who worked for nearly 10 years at agricultural
commodities giant Cargill, helping optimize procurement
and logistics for biodiesel, vegetable oil and soybean meal
customers in the EU, Targray said.
“Vincent has been intimately involved with the EU Biofuels
market for many years and understands how to create
sustainable value for customers,” said Andrew Richardson,
president and CEO of Targray. “We are excited to add his
experience, insight, and energy to our growing European
biodiesel team.”
Market update
Biodiesel prices moved lower this week.
RME FOB ARA had a bid-ask range of $943-$963/mt at
the Feb. 28 close that was $93 lower than the previous week.
SME FOB ARA had a bid-ask range at $855-$875/mt, down
$16 from last week. PME’s range was at $760-$780/mt, $16
lower than a week ago. FAME 0 FOB ARA had a range of
$845-$865/mt that was also down $16 from last week.
The movement occurred as Rotterdam gasoil was $4
higher at some $625/mt for the week ended Feb. 28.
Prices are supplied by SCB Renewables.
Michael Schneider, mschneider@opisnet.com
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 14

Brazil and CBI Markets
Anhydrous Ethanol $1.9684-$2.0441 Hydrous Ethanol $1.8927-$1.9684
(FOB Santos, 2/28/19, prices in U.S. $/gal.)
Mills in Brazil’s South Central region sold 926.85 million
liters of hydrous ethanol into Brazil’s domestic market in first-
half February, a 50.76% increase versus the same period last
year (614.80 million liters), the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry
Association (UNICA) reported Tuesday.
In Brazil, hydrous ethanol competes with gasoline at the
pump, and anhydrous ethanol is blended into gasoline at a
blend rate of 27%.
“Hydrous ethanol remains the more advantageous option
for the consumer in several markets, creating the conditions
for sales to continue at an intense pace,” said UNICA
Technical Director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues.
South Central producers’ total ethanol sales (hydrous and
anhydrous) came to 1.32 billion liters in first-half February, up
31.19% versus the same period last year (1.01 billion liters).
Of the total volume sold during the first half of February, 47.59
million liters were destined for export, and 1.27 billion liters
supplied Brazil’s domestic market.
From the start of the current season (April 1, 2018) through
mid-February, ethanol sales were up by 16.93% year on year
to 27.02 billion liters, with 1.44 billion liters destined for export
and 25.57 billion liters supplying Brazil’s domestic market.
Crush and production
South Central mills processed 279,910 tons of sugarcane in
first-half February.  allowing hydrous ethanol to be priced higher and still remain
Despite the region having entered its interharvest period,
four cane-processing units and eight corn-processing units
remain in operation.
According to a survey of more than 500 establishments
(producing units and cane suppliers) conducted by Brazil’s
Cane Technology Center (CTC), the sugarcane area planted
in 2018 was 3.6% lower versus 2017 (993,000 hectares in
2018 versus 1.03 million hectares in 2017).
Padua said the pace of cane-field renovations together with
weather conditions during the current interharvest period
will be crucial in determining total sugarcane supply for the
2019/2020 season, which officially starts on April 1.
Regional sugar production in first-half February totaled
1,650 tons. No anhydrous ethanol was produced in the
period, with some anhydrous ethanol volumes getting
rehydrated into hydrous ethanol. Hydrous ethanol production
totaled 107 million liters, with ethanol produced from corn
totaling 37.76 million liters.  At the National Ethanol Conference in Orlando last month,
From the start of the current season through mid-February,
hydrous ethanol output was up by 42.71% year on year to
21.21 billion liters, and anhydrous ethanol production was
down by 13.28% year on year to 9.14 billion liters.
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
Sugar production was down by 26.45% to 26.36 million
tons, and the regional cane crush was down by 3.56% to
563.59 million tons.
From the start of the current season through mid-February,
ethanol represented 64.57% of the sugar/ethanol production
mix, up from 53.12% during the same period in 2017/2018.
Market update
OPIS reported last week that, on Feb. 1, producing units in
Brazil’s South Central region were holding approximately 6
billion liters of ethanol inventories – a year-on-year increase of
26% and a test of producers’ ethanol storage limits. However,
those inventories during first-half February saw a sizable draw,
according to figures from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture.
Regional ethanol inventories dropped by 1.27 billion liters
(21.1%) during first-half February to 4.77 billion liters, putting
stocks 23% higher than a year earlier (3.89 billion liters).
Hydrous ethanol inventories during first-half February
dropped by 23.1% to 2.77 billion liters (but still remained 70%
higher versus mid-February 2018), and anhydrous ethanol
inventories dropped by 18.1% to 2.00 billion liters (down 11%
versus mid-February 2018).
Ex-mill ethanol prices for the week ended Feb. 22 saw
significant increases versus the prior week. The University of
São Paulo’s CEPEA economic research center attributed the
strengthening to: 1) active buying on the part of distributors
in advance of Carnaval festivities, and 2) sellers holding
firm in their offer levels in the face of rising gasoline prices,
competitive with gasoline.
For the week ended Feb. 22, CEPEA assessed ex-mill
hydrous ethanol at R$1.7998/liter, or 6.4% higher than the
prior-week assessment.
For the week ended Feb. 22, CEPEA assessed ex-mill
anhydrous ethanol at R$1.8782/liter, or 6.8% higher than the
prior-week assessment.
Brad Addington, baddington@opisnet.com
News of the Week:
Traders uncertain whether Argo expansion
would fix ethanol pricing issues
Ethanol traders are expressing mixed views on whether the
possibility of expanded loading capacity at Kinder Morgan’s
Argo terminal in Chicago would do enough to address
concerns by some producers that prices in the key market
are being overly influenced by one or more large traders.
representatives from Kinder Morgan told traders the company
is weighing plans to more than double the amount of ethanol
barges that can load and unload at its ethanol docks at the
Argo terminal. The news was first reported by Reuters.
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 15

Kinder Morgan said last week that it has not made
contractual commitments to the expansion, Reuters reported.
With ethanol prices mired near historic lows for much of the
past year, the industry’s main storage and trading hub at the
Argo terminal and the way material is priced there has been
criticized by some producers as ethanol margins have spent
much of the past year near historic lows. Several industry
sources have pointed a finger at agricultural commodity giant
Archer Daniels Midland, which, they said, has helped send
prices lower by becoming a large seller of ethanol.
Washington House Appropriations Committee
passes clean fuels program bill
The Washington state bill (House Bill 1110) that would
launch a low-carbon fuel standard by 2021 cleared
another hurdle last Monday after the House Appropriations
Committee passed it by a 19-14 vote.
The vote was made down party lines. The measure will now
head to the full House.
The bill has cleared its first three hurdles in recent
weeks as it has been approved by the House Environment
and Energy Committee in January and the House
Transportation Committee two weeks ago, and now the
Appropriations Committee.
API calls RIN market changes ‘misguided,
counterproductive’
EPA should rethink changes it is considering in how
Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits are bought
and sold, the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday,
calling the so-called reforms unnecessary.
In a call with reporters, Frank Macchiarola, vice president
of downstream and industry operations for the oil industry
trade group, said changes the agency is believed to be
considering in RIN markets “misdiagnose the problem and
provide misguided and counterproductive solutions.”
The Trump administration in October directed EPA to
conduct a rulemaking that would grant E15 a Reid Vapor
Pressure waiver, a move long-sought by ethanol producers
that would allow the year-round sale of the higher ethanol
blend. The White House also asked EPA to include in the
rulemaking changes to RIN trading requested mostly by
independent refiners, which have argued that rising credits
costs have hurt their bottom lines.
Harsh weather forces Ringneck to delay opening
of S.D. ethanol plant
Wintry weather has Ringneck Energy now targeting early
April to begin operations at its 80-million-gal/year South
Dakota ethanol plant, CEO Walt Wendland said last Monday.
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
Wendland in January told OPIS that he expected to open
the $150 million plant near Onida by early March.
The plant did start receiving corn last week, Wendland
said, “so we are probably going to have our bins filled up by
the time we start production.”
British Columbia to spend C$107 million
on ZEV expansion
British Columbia plans to spend C$107 million ($81.1
million) over the next three years to boost the use of
cleaner transportation options, including zero-emission
vehicles (ZEVs).
The push to switch to ZEVs is part of wide-ranging
climate-change plan introduced by the Canadian province’s
government in December. The funding plan was part of
government’s 2019 budget unveiled recently.
The “CleanBC” plan includes the goal of ending the sale of
new fossil-fueled light-duty cars and trucks by 2040. Under the
proposal, 10% of all vehicles sold in the province will have to
be battery electric or hybrid electric by 2025. That percentage
would rise to 30% by 2030 and increase to 100% by 2040.
Report warns of increasing costs under
California LCFS program
The impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standards
program has been modest at the pump in recent years, but
motorists could see gasoline premiums associated with
the program jump by more than 280% in the next decade,
according to a new Fuels Institute report.
The LCFS cost in consumer gasoline prices, which the
report projects will be 18cts/gal in 2019, will climb to a
projected 69cts/gal in 2030, according to the “Market
Reactions to Low Carbon Fuel Standard Programs” report.
Diesel costs are projected to go from around 14cts/gal this
year to 39cts/gal in 2030, an increase of more than 175%.
The report said that while California’s LCFS program
seems to have been operating successfully, the need to meet
tougher environmental standards in coming years could
change that.
LCFS weekly average rebounds from
two-month low: CARB
Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) average credit transfer
prices in the week ended Feb. 24 rebounded from two-month
lows hit in the previous week as buying interest and trade
activity picked up, according to data released late Tuesday
by the California Air Resources Board (CARB).
The volume-weighted average price was up $7.59 week on
week at $187.55/credit, up from last week when the average
hit its lowest since the week ended Dec. 2.
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 16

Five weeks ago, the average price hit an all-time high of
$192.03/credit in the week ended Jan. 20.
LCFS prices in January mostly calmed from record highs
hit in late November and early December, but things began to
move higher at the beginning of February.
Senators seek ‘rigorous’ Argentina biodiesel
duty review
A bipartisan group of 14 U.S. senators on Tuesday urged
the Department of Commerce to conduct a “rigorous and
transparent” review of Argentina’s request to ease duties on
biodiesel imports.
Commerce in November said it had begun a “changed
circumstances” review of stiff duties it imposed in early 2018
on Argentine biodiesel imports after receiving requests to do
so from Argentina’s government and the country’s exporters
and producers.
“It is unclear why Commerce would afford a special review
to Argentina and its biodiesel industry when the ink on these
antidumping and countervailing duty orders is barely dry,” the
senators said in the letter to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
RFA wants EIA to add ethanol exports
to weekly petroleum report
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) should
expand its Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR) to
include ethanol export data, the Renewable Fuels Association
(RFA), an ethanol industry group, told the agency last week.
The WPSR provides data on U.S. ethanol imports, but not
exports. Because the report “is the main weekly EIA publication
referenced by ethanol market participants, this has created
a lack of transparency in supply/demand data available to
the market, which has become more problematic as ethanol
exports have surged to record levels over the last few years,”
RFA told the agency in comments submitted last Monday.
Because U.S. ethanol export data is only reported monthly
by U.S. Customs, RFA said it “can take several weeks” before
market participants are able to make “more-reliable estimates
© Copyright by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit, 2099 Gaither Road, 5th Floor, Rockville, MD 20850-4089. Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service (EBIS) is published weekly.
OPIS does not guarantee the accuracy of these prices. Reproduction of this report without permission is prohibited. To order copies or a limited copyright waiver, contact OPIS Customer Service at
888.301.2645 (U.S. only), +1 301.284.2000 or energycs@opisnet.com. Ethanol pricing inquiries, contact Spencer Kelly, 301.284.2022. Biodiesel inquiries, contact Tanya Lee, 301.284.2135. STAFF:
Brad Addington, Edgar Ang, Jeff Barber, Ben Brockwell, Jennifer Brumback, Donna Calabria, Denton Cinquegrana, Brian Crotty, Jordan Godwin, Beth Heinsohn, Michael Kelly, Spencer Kelly, Tom
Kloza, Diane T. Miller, Jessica Nesterak, Renee Ortner, Michael Schneider, Mary Welge, Molly White
March 4, 2019 • Volume 16, Issue 9
of domestic consumption.” EIA, the group added, has
provided weekly data on petroleum exports in the WPSR since
August 2016, “as exports of those products rose significantly.”
CARB monitoring high LCFS credit prices; no need
for action Yet: Official
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Low Carbon Fuel Standard
(LCFS) credit prices that have hovered near record highs
for several months are a function of a healthy program
and have not triggered a cause for action, California Air
Resources Board (CARB) Chief of Industrial Strategies
Floyd Vergara said Thursday.
Speaking at the 8th Annual California Advanced Biofuels
Conference here, Vergara said CARB has been monitoring
the prices closely. OPIS on Wednesday assessed the LCFS
credit at $196.50/credit, just $4 below the Dec. 10 price of
$200.50/credit, the highest level in the six-year history of the
OPIS assessment.
“Solid credit prices provide a signal to investors that this is a
market they should be investing in,” Vergara said. “I think the
credit market is doing its job in terms of sending the right signals.
We do continue to monitor the situation, and we have cost
containment measures in place, if needed. We have a number of
tools in our toolkit, and we are ready to step in if that’s necessary.”
SoCalGas files request to offer renewable natural
gas option to customers
Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) has filed a request
with the California Public Utilities Commission seeking to
offer renewable natural gas to its 21 million customers in
Central and Southern California, the company said Thursday.
Under the proposed program, SoCalGas would provide its
customers the option to purchase a portion of their natural
gas from renewable sources, just as many can currently opt
to purchase renewable electricity.
“Renewable natural gas is an important component in
California’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions,” said Sharon
Tomkins, SoCalGas vice president of customer solutions
and strategy.
@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 17