Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 34 No. 2, pp.

249-268
www. advanced transport.com

Estimation of AADT from Short Period Counts in

Hong Kong -A Comparison Between Neural
Network Method and Regression Analysis

William H. K. Lam
Jianmin Xu

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) volumes can be

estimated by using a short period count of less than twenty-four hour
duration. In this paper, the neural network method is adopted for the
estimation of AADT from short period counts and for the
determination of the most appropriate length of counts. A case study
is carried out by analysing data at thirteen locations on trunk roads
and primary roads in urban area of Hong Kong. The estimation
accuracy is also compared with the one obtained by regression
analysis approach. The results show that the neural network approach
consistently performed better than the regression analysis approach.

Introduction

The task of land use and transport planning is primarily to determine

cost effective solutions for achieving and maintaining a reasonable level
of mobility for people and goods. In order to assess the performance of
the transportation network, there is a need to collect a time-series traffic
data for network evaluation and monitoring purpose. A major problem
often faced in land use and transport planning for developing countries is
the lack of traffic volume data. However, traffic volume data is one of
the most important components of the information necessary for the
planning, design and operation of transportation network.
Traffic volume data are collected from various short and permanent
traffic counters over a number of years. Methods for collecting traffic
counts vary widely, ranging from mechanical fixed counters to electric
contact, photoelectric, radar, and magnetic devices. There are many
problems associated with each of these methods, including equipment

William H.K. Lam is at the Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong
Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong.
Jianmin Xu is at the South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, P.R. China.
Received May 1998; Accepted June 1999.
250 William H.K.Lam and Jianmin X u

theft and damage, vandalism, and human error. Since the installation of a
permanent traffic counter on every road section is not economically
feasible, highway agencies routinely use sample traffic counts (Faghri
and Chakroborty, 1994). The sample traffic counts are obtained by using
traffic counters for short periods at selected locations. The data collected
from the short period traffic counts is routinely used to estimate
important traffic parameters for the whole highway network.
The type of traffic volume information most often used is the
average annual daily traffic (AADT) which is defined as the total yearly
volume divided by the number of days in the year. It provides a measure
of overall utilisation of the highway facility. AADT data can be used for:
(a) highway planning activities, such as development of
expressway systems and major urban street systems, and
selection of the best route for a new facility or improvement,
(b) highway development programme to determine the need for
and priority of street improvement,
(c) indicating level of service and the general adequacy of a road
or network,
(d) before and after studies to determine the effectiveness of the
road improvement scheme, and
(e) trend studies.
Estimation of AADT from short period counts offers great economic
advantages because it eliminates expensive surveys, burdensome data
editing and subsequent analysis. The development of this type of
techniques is very attractive in the developing countries such as China.
There are two conventional methods for estimating AADT from
short period traffic counts: One of the earlier used methods was raised by
Philips and Blake (1980). Phillips and Blake firstly defined a short
period count as one continuous count of traffic at a site for a period of
less than 24 hours. A two-stage process is utilised to estimate a daily and
an annual total. The process for the expansion is based on a ratio method
where the expansion factors are expressed as a ratio of traffic flows.
Traffic data collected at the count stations provide traffic information on
a monthly basis. This method is rather simple in computation and is
easily understood and applied, but could result in large estimation errors.
Another frequently used method for estimating AADT from short
period counts is made use of the regression analysis. For most of the
regression analyses, the average relationship between the dependent
variable and the independent variables is assumed to be linear. A linear
function is used because it is mathematically simple, and yet still
Estimation of AADTfrom Short Period Counts... 25 1

provides an approximation to the real-world relationship that can be

transformed to linear function. A simple regression equation is

y=A+Bx (1)
where y is the estimated value of the dependent variable (AADT), x
is the short period count at the selected station, A and B are the
regression coefficients.
Erhunmwunsee (199 1) compared the results between Phillips and
Blake’s method and regression analysis approach and found that the
regression analysis approach has better performance in terms of accuracy
than Phillips and Blake’s method for the estimation of AADT from short
period counts.
In recent years, more attention has been given to the application of
neural networks on traffic and transportation engineering (see Faghri and
Hua; 1995) but the applications of neural networks to the estimation of
AADT are very few such as Lingras and Adamo (1995). The estimation
of AADT from short period counts by the conventional method (using
expansion factor) and the neural network approach were compared in
their study. The conclusion was that the neural network approach
consistently outperformed the conventional method. However, the
determination of the most appropriate length of counts was not
considered in their paper.
This paper compares the neural network method and regression
analysis approach for the estimation of AADT from short period counts.
It also aims to investigate the most appropriate length of counts (of less
than twenty-four hour duration) for the AADT estimation. Case study is
carried out by analysing data at thirteen locations on trunk roads and
primary roads at Kowloon urban area in Hong Kong. The estimation
accuracy of the neural network method is compared with the one
obtained by regression analysis approach. The results show that the
neural network approach consistently performed better than the
regression analysis approach. The proposed neural network method is
economically feasible and has potential applications in cities of the
developing countries such as Guangzhou in China.

Estimation of AADT by Neural Networks

Neural networks are information-processing structures that consist of

many simple processing elements (or “neurones”) with dense parallel
interconnections. Each neuron can receive weighted inputs from many
252 William H.K.Lam and Jianmin Xu

other neurons and can communicate with its outputs, if any, to many
other neurons. Information is thus represented in a distributed fashion,
across massive weighted interconnections. Neural networks make use of
imperfect data, but do not need pre-determined formulae or rules. To
implement a neural network model for parameter estimation, a set of
samples is repeatedly presented to the network during a “training
session”, and the system is supported to learn the relationship between
the input and the desired output data.
Of the several neural network models available, the multi-layered
feedforward network is probably the most common model. The network
consists of an input layer, an output layer and one or more hidden layers
of neurons in between, with each neuron in a layer connected to all
neurons in the preceding and/or following layers through weighted
interconnections. The output of each neuron is a function of the sum of
the weighted outputs of the neurons in the immediate proceeding layer.
In this paper, one hidden layer of neurons with the sigmoid activation
function is used. The activation function of the neurons in output layer is
chosen as a linear function for simplification. Theoretically speaking, if
the chosen number of hidden neurons is large enough, the neural network
can closely approximate any complicated non-linear function but it is
piecewise continuous. A training algorithm based on the back-
propagation algorithm (Rumelhart, et.al., 1986) was adopted in this
paper. In the training session, the short period counts at the selected
stations and the corresponding observed AADT are presented to the input
layer and the output layer respectively. All of the inpudoutput data are
transformed as normalised vectors between the ranges [0,1]. The weights
of the neurons are updated after each iteration with the use of the
following equations:

where whj(t + 1) and wih (t + 1) are the interconnection weights

between the hidden neuron h and the output neuronj and between the
input neuron i and the hidden neuron h at time ( t + l ) respectively;
Estimation of AADTfrom Short Period Counts.,. 253

where ei is the error in output of neuron j in the output layer at time

(t+l), given as the difference between the desired and the actual outputs;
oi and oh are the outputs of the output neuronj and the hidden neuron
h at time (t+l) respectively; 7 is the training rate, normally, 0 q d ; ais
the momentum term, also Ocacl. The following linear and sigmoid
activation function are used in the output layer and the hidden layer
respectively, i.e.,

o h ( t + l )= 1 / { 1 + e x p ( C x i ( t ) w i h ( t ) - 6 , ) } (7)
i
where Bi and 6, are the threshold values for the output neuron j and
the hidden neuron h respectively; xi is the i-th input of the neural
network.
Training of the neural network starts with the weight assigned with
small random values, and is terminated when either the maximum
number of iterations is reached or the sum of absolute error (SAE) is
reduced to an acceptable value.

Data Collection

The traffic flow data collected in Hong Kong for the 1991 Annual
Traffic Census (ATC) was used in this paper and was obtained from the
Traffic and Transport Survey Division (TTSD) of Hong Kong Transport
Department. Generally, automatic counter data collected at the ATC
stations which provide the hourly and daily variations could be used to
derive the AADT on the basis of ATC group scaling factors; where the
group scaling factor is the reciprocal of the mean of the ratios of a 24-
hour count recorded on any particular day of the week and month of the
year to the AADT at the same station for all the ATC core stations in the
same group. In Hong Kong, there are a total of 12 sets of such scaling
factors but only the one for the Kowloon urban group (for trunk roads
and primary distributors) was used for this study. These are identified by
the geographical location and type of road links within each group. The
road section of the 13 selected count locations is listed in Table 1. The
254 William H.K.Lam and Jianmin Xu

locations are named in number 1-13 to help identification of the count

locations.

Table 1. Road Sectic 1 of Selected Count Locations

Location
No. I Road From To

I Margaret Road
~~

1 Wylie Rd Pui Ching Rd

Lung Cheung Rd Nam Cheong St Lion Rock Tunnel Rd
Airport Tunnel Sung Wong Toi Kai Cheung Rd
Rd
Nathan Rd Shantung St Dundas St
Caldecott Rd Tai Po Rd INT
6 I Boundary St Tai Hang Tung Rd Embankment Rd
Prince Edward Rd Embankment Rd Yuen Ngai St

Argyle St & FO Waterloo Rd Yim Po Fong St

Waterloo Rd Yim Po Fong St Pui Ching Rd
Chatham Rd N & San Lau St Yan Fung St
Ma Tau Wai Rd

I
Ma Tau Kok Rd Chatnam Rd N
1 FerrySt
~~ ~

12 Waterloo Rd Argyle St
Eastern end of Wai Yip St
Ping Shek Est

In order to build up the AADT estimation models, data on the 13

selected count locations are extracted from the 1991 Annual Traffic
Census (ATC). The 24-hour count at each selected station is aggregated
into various lengths of counts for analysis. The lengths of counts to be
investigated are 4-hour, 6-hour, %hour, 10-hour, 12-hour, 14-hour and
16-hour. There are several time periods associated with each length of
count, depending on the starting times of the counting periods, The
starting time that was chosen in this study was 6:OOAM. For example, a
4-hour length of counts has the most time periods, i.e. 15 time periods
ranging from 6:OOAM- lO:OOAM, 7:OOAM-ll:OOAM, ...,20:00PM-
24:OOPM; A 16-hour length of counts has the least time periods, only 3
Estimation of AADTfrom Short Period Counts... 255

time periods ranging from 6:00AM - 22:OO PM, 7:OO AM-23:OO PM ,

and 8:00AM-24:00PM. Therefore 16-hour length of counts has the least
number of samples for training the neural network.

Comparison of Results

Since the regression analysis method has better accuracy than the
Phillips & Blake’s method (Erhunmunsee, 1991), it is worthwhile to
compare the estimation performance between the neural network method
and the regression analysis approach.
In order to train a neural network model for a certain time length of
short period counts, the input samples are formed from that short period
counts at the selected stations and the output samples are taken as the
corresponding observed AADT. The normalised inputloutput vectors
between the ranges [0,1] are presented to the input layer and the output
layer respectively so that training of the neural network lie in an effective
computation scope. The normalisation of inputloutput vector is carried
out by dividing the maximum inputloutput sample values, respectively.
For different lengths of short period counts, the numbers of neurons in
the hidden layers are varied depending on the complexity of the mapping
relations and the effectiveness of the training. Generally speaking, the
more hidden neurons, the more accurate approximation can be obtained,
but the more computation amount and more memories are required.
Therefore, we do not need to increase the hidden neurons if the sum of
absolute error (SAE) is not reduced obviously. On the basis of a number
of preliminary analyses, the numbers of neurons in hidden layers for 4-
hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, 10-hour, 12-hour, 14-hour and 16-hour counts are
determined to be 20, 15, 10, 10, 8, 8, and 5, respectively.
The estimation results by the neural network method and the
regression analysis method are compared in the following tables and
figures while the percent error is used for the comparison and is aefined
as:

Est. AADT - Obs.AADT

Error(%) = loo (8)
Obs. AADT

This percent error can be used as a measure to compare the accuracy of

the AADT estimation by the two methods. In eqn. (8), Est. AADT and
Obs. AADT stand for the estimated and observed AADT, respectively.
Tables 2 and 3 compare the observed AADT against the estimated
256 William H.K.Lam and Jianmin Xu

AADT obtained from the regression models and the neural network
models for the lengths of 8-hour and 12-hour counts, together with their
percent errors. The graphs of the observed AADT vs. the estimated
AADT from these two periods of counts are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
The comparison results for the other lengths of short period counts are
given in Appendix A.

I &,, I
Count
Table2. Est
Observed
AADT
~ Estimated AADT
Regr. I NN
I
Regr. Est. NN Est.
Error(%) Error(%)
I I
79143 I 78970 I -5.17 I -5.3810 I
1

' 60005
I

1 60640
I

1
~

-0.13 r
I

0.9281
I

I
I

48174 49520 -2.24 0.4774

pi p 7 8
27482
1 -43600
61210
~
~ 32587
49382
62648
I
33740
48350
61210
I
-3.35
13.26
2.35
I ~
-0.0868
10.8850
0.0078
I

r
l
I I I I I I I

54804 I 57400 I 0.28 5.0307 I

60293 58390 -0.82 -3.9474
I
41002 40100 2.97 0.71 12
I

10 I 19372 I 46320 44204 I 44480 I -4.57 I -3.9742 I

11 30778 76290 49961 79560 -8.30 4.2893
12 39686 94720 90655 93990 -4.29 -0.77 13
I

13 I 69884 I 149640 151637 I 149640 I 1.33 -0.0021

 Estimation of AADT from Short Period Counts... 257

x 10'

14 -
I-
n 1 2 -
U
a
U
10 -
0)
2 8 -
0)
v)

6 -
0

E stim a t e d A A D T (+--NN o - - R e g re s s i o n ) x 10'

Fig. 1. Observed AADT Vs Estimated AADT from 8-hour Count

Table 3. Estimated AADT from 1

Av.
Observed Estimated AADT
Regr. Est. NN Est.
Error Error
Daily AADT Regr. I NN
Count (%o) (%o)

+
49316 83460 78741 78271 -5.65 -6.2179
38861 60080 57140 59584 -4.89 I -0.8250 I
1 3 31000 49280 46899 47862 -4.83 -2.8784
19181 33770 32612 33590 -3.43 -0.5321
28651 I 43600 I 45449 I 43640
39746 I 61210 I 60446 I 60364 -1.25 -1.3820
1 1 I I I
~~ ~~

35211 54650 51931 55119 -4.97 0.8582

I I

+
37183 60790 58681 57788 -3.47 -4.9389
25658 39820 39863 39069 0.11 I -1.8868 I
28605 I 46320 I 43530 I 43562 -6.02 -5.9552
46526 76290 70541 77226 -7.54 1.2273
57961 94720 88320 94635 -6.76 I -0.0898 I
98576 I 149640 I 142645 I 149640 -4.67 0.0002
258 William H.K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

Fig. 2 Observed AADT Vs Estimated AADT from 12-hour Count

In addition, the maximum percent error and the sum of absolute

errors for all the lengths of short period counts obtained by the two
methods are plotted in Figures 3 and 4 respectively and are summarised
in Table 4. It should be noted in Table 4 that MER and MEN stand for
the maximum percent error obtained for the estimates by the regression
analysis and neural networks methods; SAER and SAEN stand for the
sum of absolute errors by regression analysis and neural networks,
respectively. The results show that the neural network estimation has
smaller maximum percent errors and smaller sum of absolute errors than
the regression analysis estimation. The Sum of Absolute Errors (SAE) is
defined as:

where E r r o ~ (%) is the percent error of the estimated AADT (as

obtained by eqn. (8)) at location i.
Estimation of AADT from Short Period Counts... 259

Table 4. Estimation Error Comparison between Regression

Network Methoc
4hr dhr 8hr
MER( %) 20.72 18.52 13.26
MEN( %) 13.66 15.08 10.88 11.50
SAER 75.10 62.52 49.21
SAEN 58.12 48.58 36.49

Regression Analysis

Estimation
8 -

6 -

4 6 8 10 12 14 16
P e r i o d (hr)

Fig. 3. Maximum Percent Errors by Regression Analysis and Neural

Network Methods
260 William H.K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

140
I
12 0 '

00.

80 - Regression Anylysis

/ I

40t'
Neural Nelwork

20
4 6 8
E slim ation

10 12 14
1
I
16
Period ( h r )

Fig. 4. Sum of Absolute Percent Errors by Regression Analysis and

Neural Network Methods

It can be seen in Table 4, Figures 3 and 4 that the estimation

accuracy from the 16-hour count period is very poor by both methods.
This is because the samples of this time length come from the
combination of counts with only three time periods ranging from
6:00AM - 22~00PM, 7100AM-23~00PM , and 8:00AM-24:00PM.
Obviously, the number of samples is too small for model calibration. It
was found that the 12-hour count period is the most accurate period for
AADT estimation in view of the minimum estimation errors. However,
for determination of the best (or the most appropriate) period of count, a
cost effectiveness analysis should be made to consider the trade-off
between the estimation accuracy and the amount of extra counting effort
required (in terms of time length of count). Suppose that the cost for
traffic counts is proportional to the time length of count, a measure of
effectiveness of the extra counting time length can be defined as below:

RSAE
Eff =- (9)
ETLC

where Eff is an effectiveness index, RSAE is the Reduction in Sum of

Absolute Errors, ETLC is the amount of Extra Time Length of Count.
 4hr 6hr 8hr lOhr 12hr 14hr 16hr
SAEN 58.12 48.58 36.49 29.66 26.88 28.31 92.93
Effectiveness --- 4.77 5.41 4.74 3.91 2.98 -2.90

It can be seen in Table 5 that the 8-hour count is the most appropriate
period of count by considering both the cost and estimation accuracy
because this period of count has the highest effectiveness index of 5.4 1.

Conclusions

In this paper, the neural network method is adopted for the

estimation of AADT from short period counts and for the determination
of the most appropriate length of counts. Case study is carried out by
analysing data at thirteen locations on trunk roads and primary roads at
Kowloon, Hong Kong. The estimation accuracy is also compared with
the one obtained by regression analysis approach. Cost effectiveness is
used to analyse the most appropriate length of counts. The results show
that the neural network model consistently performed better than the
regression analysis approach and the 8-hour count is the most appropriate
length of counts for the estimation of AADT. The estimation results from
short period of counts by neural network model are proven to satisfy the
suggestion in the ‘Manual of Traffic Engineering Studies’ (ITE, 1976)
that the error of the estimation of the AADT is within 12 %. Therefore,
the proposed method is feasible in practice.
This study is valuable in guidance of collection of traffic information
in Guangzhou city of China. In order to supplement the existing data
sources in Guangzhou urban area and to ensure the variation of the traffic
flows going through the crossings in each direction at Guangzhou
Bridge, Haiyin Bridge, Renmin Bridge and Zhujiang Tunnel, it is
necessary to undertake a 24-hour classified traffic count initially to
provide up-to-data details of aspects of current traffic movements. For
each selected location, the 24-hour count can be aggregated into various
lengths of counts for investigation. The most appropriate length of counts
can be determined by the proposed method for estimating the annual
262 William H. K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

traffic flows at the other locations with similar road type in the study
area.

Acknowledgements

The work described in this paper was jointly supported by a grant

from the Research Committee of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University
(G-YB70) and the Institute of Systems Science Research of Japan (H-
ZF21).

References

Erhunmwunsee, Paul 0. (1991). Estimating Average Annual Daily

Traffic from Short Period Counts. ITE Journal, Vol. 61, No. 11, pp.
23-30.
Faghri, A and Chakroborty, P. (1994). Development and Evaluation of a
Statistically Reliable Traffic Counting Program. Transportation
Planning and Technology, Vol. 18, NO. 4, pp. 223-237.
Faghri, A. and Hua, B. (1995). Roadway Seasonal Classification using
Neural Networks. ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil
Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 111-122.
Institute of Transportation Engineers. (1976). Manual of Traffic
Engineering Studies, 4th Edition. Washington, D.C.: Institute of
Transportation Engineers (ITE).
Lingras, P. and Adamo, M. (1995). Estimation of AADT Volumes Using
Neural Networks. Proceedings of Computing in Civil and Building,
Pahl & Wemer (eds), Balkema, Rotterdam, pp. 1355-1362.
Phillips, G and Blake, P. (1980). Estimating Total Annual Traffic Flow
from Short Period Counts. Transportation Planning and Technology,
Vol. 6, pp. 169-174.
Pignatario, L.J. (1979). Traffic Engineering Theory and Practice.
Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice-Hall.
Rumelhart, D.E. and McClelland, J.L. (1986). Parallel Distributed
Processing, MIT Press, New York.
Traffic and Transport Survey Division. (1991). The Annual Traffic
Census. Hong Kong Transport Department.
U.S. Department of Transportation. (1981). Guide to Urban Traffic
Volume Counting. Washington, D.C.: U S . Department of
Transportation.
Estimation of AADT from Short Period Counts... 263

Wisconsin State Department of Transportation. ( 1982). Planning Manual

Procedure. Madison, Wis.: Wisconsin State Department of
Transportation.
264 William H. K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

Appendix A

LOC . Daly
'v* Observed Estimated AADT Regr' NN Est.
No. AADT Regr. I NN Est* Error (%)
Count (%I
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 12027 60790 57899 61270 -4.7552 0.7896
9 8086 39820 38902 45250 -2.3062 13.6364
10 9239 46320 43472 42500 -6.1476 -8.2470
11 14742 76290 69593 72400 -8.7786 -5.0990
12 19482 94720 92721 95090 -2.1107 0.3906
13 34657 149640 157338 149640 5.1440 0

Table A2. Estimated AADT from 6 hr Count

Estimation of AADTfrom Short Period Counts... 265

Table A3. Estimated AADT from 10 hr Count

*"' Observed Estimated AADT Regr. Est. NN Est.
Count
AADT Regr. I NN Error(%) Error(%)

41099 83460 76716 I 78278 -8.0805 -6.2091

1 2 33218 60080 58640 60209 -2.3968 0.2146
26201 49280 48724 47603 -1.1282 -3.4033
I I I I I
~~

15953 33770 35186 33563 4.1931 -0.6124

24851 43600 48452 45523 11.1284 4.4095
33676 61210 61140 60444 -0.1144 -1.2509
1 7 30052 54650 53666 56649 -1.8005 3.6587
31415 60790 59477 58706 -2.1599 -3.4290
21659 39820 42247 39795 6.0949 -0.0624

-
I+- 24055
38716
48919
46320
76290
94720
45419
69110
86184
44406
78017
94731
-1.9452
-9.4115
-9.0118
-4.1329
2.2641
0.01 12
84614 149640 137661 149640 -8.0052 0.

Table A4. Estimated AADT from 14 hr Count

266 William H. K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

Table AS. Estimated AADT from 16 hr Count

c 1
n
~

a
a 1
U
a!
L
a!
u)
n
0

E s t i m a t e d A A D T (+--NN o - - R e g r e s s i o n ) ,04

Fig. A l . Observed AADT vs Estimated AADT from 4-hour Count

Estimation of AADT from Short Period Counts... 267

x 10'
16

14

l- 12
n
U
a 10
-0
al
2 8
al
In
a 6
0
4

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
E slim a te d A A D T (+--N N o - - R e g re ssio n) 10'

Fig. A2. Observed AADT vs Estimated AADT from 6-hour Count

x 10'

E s t i m a t e d A A D T (+--NN o - - R e g r e s s i o n ) ,04

Fig. A3. Observed AADT vs Estimated AADT from 10-hour Count

268 William H.K. Lam and Jianmin Xu

Fig. A4. Observed AADT vs Estimated AADT from 14-hour Count

6
E s t i m a t e d A A D T (+--NN o--Regression) ,,,4

Fig. AS. Observed AADT vs Estimated AADT from 16-hour Count