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To cite this article: Jim E. Griffin & Roel C. A. Oomen (2008) Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time
or Transaction Time?, Econometric Reviews, 27:1-3, 230-253, DOI: 10.1080/07474930701873341
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Econometric Reviews, 27(1–3):230–253, 2008
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 0747-4938 print/1532-4168 online
DOI: 10.1080/07474930701873341
This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market
microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time
scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time
where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the
literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking.
Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are
very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an
important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling
is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level
of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly,
we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in
tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise
being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.
Keywords Market microstructure noise; Optimal sampling; Pure jump process; Realized
variance; Tick time; Transaction time.
1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, the literature on realized variance (RV) has evolved
rapidly and has witnessed a shift in focus from the asymptotic analysis of
RV under “ideal” conditions (e.g., Andersen et al., 2003; Barndorff-Nielsen
and Shephard, 2004) to the case where various market microstructure
noise effects contaminate the efficient price process and invalidate much
of the previously derived theory (e.g., Bandi and Russell, 2004; Hansen
and Lunde, 2006; Oomen, 2006b; Zhang et al., 2005). It is well known
that microstructure effects can lead to serial correlation in observed
returns (e.g., Epps, 1979; Niederhoffer and Osborne, 1966), and it is
exactly this feature of the noise which makes RV a biased and inconsistent
measure for the quadratic variation or integrated variance of the efficient
price process. Various approaches have been suggested to overcome this
problem and include pre-filtering, sparse sampling, model-based bias
corrections, nonparametric bias corrections, and subsampling; see for
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FIGURE 1 Intel and Citigroup in transaction and tick time. This figure plots a series of 500 Intel
and Citigroup transaction prices for October 1, 2004 (Panels A and B), plus the autocorrelation
function of transaction returns for October 2004 (Panel C). Panels D–F plot the corresponding
graphs in tick time.
price change1 (e.g., Aït-Sahalia et al., 2005; Corsi et al., 2001; Zhou, 1996).
While the difference between calendar time and transaction time sampling
has already been studied in detail (Oomen, 2006b), the difference between
transaction time and tick time sampling is currently an unexplored issue
and will be the focus of this article.
Because the tick return series is obtained by simply censoring the zeros
in the transaction return series, one may expect the resulting difference in
RV to be immaterial. Interestingly, however, when moving from transaction
time to tick time the dependence structure of returns changes dramatically
which, in turn, impacts the properties of RV. To illustrate this, consider
Figure 1 which plots a sequence of Intel prices in transaction time (Panel
A) and tick time (Panel D). Note that for this particular sample, the 500
transaction prices correspond to only 56 ticks indicating that about 90%
of the transaction returns are zero! More importantly, while in transaction
time only the first order autocorrelation of returns is large and negative, in
tick time many of the higher order autocorrelations are also significant and
1
There is some confusion of terminology in the literature. For instance Aït-Sahalia et al. (2005)
use tick data but refer to it as transaction data, whereas Hansen and Lunde (2006) use transaction
data but refer to it as tick data. In this article, we use the convention that transaction data are
associated with the occurrence of transactions and tick data are associated with the occurrence of
price changes.
Tick Time or Transaction Time? 233
TABLE 1 Return correlation of DJ30 components in transaction time and tick time
(October 2004)
For some securities, such as General Electric, Intel, and Microsoft, this
pattern persists much longer.
With such markedly different return dynamics in tick time, it seems
pertinent to ask what its impact on RV is. For this purpose, we develop a
new model for observed prices which captures many of the salient features
of the data and use it to provide a detailed investigation of the properties
of RV in transaction time and tick time. The proposed model can be
viewed as a generalized Roll model (Roll, 1984) where we allow for a
stochastic spread and clustering in buy and sell orders which, as pointed
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Sh = Sh∗ + Bh (1)
h
Sh∗ = si i (2)
i=1
236 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
Here, i is a nonzero IID random variable and si ∈ 0, 1 with Prsi = 1 =
> 0. Thus, the efficient price moves with probability in tick time and
if it does, the return equals i . For simplicity we assume that E (i ) = 0 and
let E (2i ) = 2 and E (4i ) = 4 so that a deviation of from 3 measures
the “non-normality” of efficient price innovations. Regarding the noise
component, it is assumed that
Bh = shb bh , (3)
Pk = SZ (k) , (4)
k
Z (k) = siz ,
i=1
with siz ∈ 0, 1 and Prsiz = 1 = for 0 < ≤ 1. Thus, the transaction
time process P is derived from the tick time process S by deforming
its timescale using Z . In this setting, k defines the “transaction time
scale” and Z (k) defines the “tick time scale.” Importantly, the difference
between the tick time and transaction time process is controlled by
a single parameter . When = 1 the two processes are equivalent
because Z (k) = k and hence Pk = Sk . When < 1 the tick time scale
Z (k) “slows down” relative to the transaction time scale (because
E [Z (k)] < k) which, in turn, leads to a transaction price process that,
unlike the tick price process, features spells of constant prices where
series of consecutive transactions are executed at the previous tick
price. Clearly, the closer is to zero, the fewer ticks are observed.
In fact, in a sample of N transactions, the number of ticks N1 = Z
(N ) has a binomial distribution with parameter so that E (N1 ) = N .
Define Pk∗ = SZ∗(k) and Dk = BZ (k) = skd bk where skd ∈ −1, 1. Then
Pk = Pk∗ + Dk and further insights into the model can be obtained by
Tick Time or Transaction Time? 237
recognizing that the triplet (Pk∗ , skd , Dk ) is a Markov chain with the following
transition probabilities:
Pr Pk∗ = Pk−1
∗
; skd = sk−1
d
; Dk = Dk−1 = 1 − ,
Pr Pk∗ = Pk−1
∗
; skd = −sk−1
d
; Dk = skd bk = (1 − ),
1
Pr Pk∗ = Pk−1
∗
+ k ; skd = 1; Dk = skd bk = ,
2
1
Pr Pk∗ = Pk−1
∗
+ k ; skd = −1; Dk = skd bk =
2
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FIGURE 2 Simulated price process in transaction time and tick time. This figure plots a simulated
price path in transaction time (Panel A) and tick time (Panel B). The dashed line is the
corresponding efficient price process. The model parameters are set as N = 250, = 010, = 020
with and b both drawn from multinomial distributions with E (2 ) = 230 and E (b) = 03225 and
E (b 2 ) = 01294.
238 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
Roll model, namely (i) the constant bid/ask spread, (ii) the absence of
clustering in buy and sell orders, and (iii) the assumed independence of
the “noise” and the efficient price process. The first two issues are resolved
in the current setting because b is a random variable and the transaction
price process features serial correlation in skd which is consistent with the
implications of the literature on sequential trade models (see, e.g., O’Hara,
1995). However, the independence between the noise component and the
efficient price process is maintained here. This is done mainly to keep
the model tractable but also because, as discussed in Oomen (2006a), it is
not entirely clear whether allowing for correlation between the noise and
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FIGURE 3 Auto-covariance function of returns as a function of . Note: This figure plots the
auto-covariance function
(h) in Equation (5) as a function of for h = 1, 2, , 6 and k = 1 in
Panel A and k = 2 in Panel B. The noise parameter b̄ = 1/2 for scaling purposes.
At the same time, the large negative first order correlation of transaction
returns can be produced when ≈ 0, or equivalently, ≈ −1/( − 2) ≈ 12 .
Intriguingly, Table 1 suggests that this is exactly what is going on in practice
with the number of number of tick to transactions being roughly 1 : 2 for
the majority of DJ30 components. When aggregating returns once (i.e.,
k = 2 as in Panel B), all correlations turn negative and are now symmetric
about = 0. The correlation pattern is largely unaffected by aggregation
when ≈ 0 but there is a significant reduction in correlation when is
close to −1. Intuitively, sampling every two ticks instead of every one,
eliminates much of the “bounce” so that the serial correlation is lowered.
For k > 2, we have a similar pattern as for k = 1 (k = 2) when k is odd
(even) albeit with a first order auto-covariance that converges to −b̄ 2 and
a dampened magnitude of all higher order ones.
Closer inspection of Equation (5) suggests that the auto-covariance
function of returns in our model corresponds to that of an ARMA(1,1)
process with an autoregressive parameter of AR = k and a moving average
parameter equal to
2k + 1 k − 1 3k
MA = − − 4 + 2k − 2k + 1
2k 2k
It is easy to see that under aggregation, limk→∞ AR = 0 and limk→∞ MA =
−1. This is also illustrated in Figure 4. Hence, at a low observation
frequency our model is roughly consistent with the standard IID noise
specification which is known to generate an MA(1) dependence structure
(see e.g., Bandi and Russell, 2004; Hansen and Lunde, 2006; Oomen, 2005,
2006b; Zhang et al., 2005). At high frequency, on the other hand, our
model generates a much richer dependence structure because the AR root
240 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
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can be substantial and the MA root far away from −1, particularly in tick
time.
N /k
RVk( ) = 2
ri,k (6)
i=1
As before, this amounts to the use of transaction data when < 1 and
tick data when = 1, with N and N1 denoting the number of available
transactions and ticks at the highest sampling frequency, respectively.
In the RV analysis below, the object of econometric interest is the
integrated variance of the efficient price process which we denote as
=
2 E [N ] = 2 E [N1 ]. For simplicity, we maintain the assumption that the
noise bk = b̄ is constant. Relaxing this will not change the discussion and
its implications qualitatively.
in sampling frequency will always increase N /k but k < k+1 only when
k is odd. Of course, this is just another manifestation of the fact that
for negative values of the autocorrelation pattern of returns differs
significantly depending on whether k is odd or even (see Figure 3).
Comparing the bias across sampling schemes, we note that at the
highest sampling frequency k = 1, (the bias of) RV in tick time and
transaction time is of course numerically identical because the only
difference between the two is a sum of squared zeros. To see what happens
at lower frequency we consider the ratio of the bias in transaction time
relative to that in tick time for a given k, i.e.,
E (RVk( ) −
) 1 − ( − 2 + 1)k
(k) ≡ = ,
E (RVk(1) −
) − ( − 1)k
FIGURE 5 Bias of RV in transaction time relative to tick time. Note: This figure plots the relative
bias (k) as a function of (horizonal axis) and (vertical axis).
242 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
converges to 1/ > 1, indicating that at low frequency the bias in tick time
is smaller than that in transaction time.
2k − 3 2 2
E (RVk( ) −
)2 =
+ + 4b 2 2 + k
N
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2 N 2 4 N 4
+ 4 1 − k 2
b + 4 1 − 2k b (8)
k k
For a given sampling scheme, we can determine the “optimal” sampling
frequency as the value of k which minimizes the MSE expression, i.e.,
10 020 025 6 2 1 10 2 5 10 6 9
100 63 2 6 63 32 32 63 57 57
400 403 40 40 403 201 202 403 362 363
10 050 025 4 2 0 10 4 5 10 9 9
100 63 6 6 63 32 32 63 57 57
400 403 40 40 403 201 202 403 362 363
10 080 025 1 1 0 10 5 5 10 9 9
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100 63 6 6 63 32 32 63 57 57
400 403 40 40 403 201 202 403 362 363
20 020 025 1 1 0 4 2 2 2 2 2
100 25 2 3 25 10 13 25 22 23
400 159 14 16 159 80 80 159 143 143
20 050 025 1 1 0 4 2 2 4 2 4
100 24 2 2 25 12 13 25 23 23
400 159 16 16 159 80 80 159 143 143
20 080 025 1 1 0 4 2 2 4 4 4
100 23 2 2 25 13 13 25 23 23
400 159 16 16 159 80 80 159 143 143
30 020 025 1 1 0 2 2 1 2 2 2
100 13 2 1 15 4 8 14 12 13
400 93 6 9 93 46 47 93 83 84
30 050 025 1 1 0 2 2 1 2 2 2
100 11 2 1 15 8 8 15 13 14
400 93 9 9 93 46 47 93 83 84
30 080 025 1 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 2
100 9 2 1 15 7 8 15 13 14
400 93 9 9 93 46 47 93 83 84
This table reports the optimal sampling frequency, obtained by minimizing Equation (8) over
k, in transaction time (k ∗ ) and tick time (k1∗ ). The ∗
√ third column of each panel reports k . The
model parameters , , , and b̄ are varied (with
is in annualized figures) while the number
of transactions is set equal to N = 10, 000.
k1∗ ≈ k ∗ (9)
FIGURE 6 Minimum MSE RV in tick and transaction time. This figure plots the logarithmic
minimum mean-squared-error of RV in transaction time (solid line) and tick time (dashed line)
as a function of the level of market microstructure noise parameter b (in basis points on the
horizonal axis).
particularly for low levels of noise. The intuition for this is as follows. Let
x denote the number of efficient price moves over a k -tick/transaction
interval. From an efficiency standpoint, it is optimal to have x spread out
equally across the sampling intervals. This is most easily understood by
viewing the extreme opposite case, where all the efficient prices moves are
bunched into one sampling interval and RV essentially collapses to the
daily squared return (barring noise) which is known to be a less efficient
estimator. Using the model, we have that E (x) = k so that if we sample
according to the relation in Equation (9), each sampled interval will have
the same number of efficient price moves irrespective of the sampling
scheme on average. However, because V (x) = k (1 − ), the variance
of x is higher in transaction time than in tick time. Thus, when moving
from tick time to transaction time, we randomly add in zero returns which
distorts the balance of noise to efficient price moves so that as a result, the
variance of x is higher in transaction time. Now, when the level of noise
Tick Time or Transaction Time? 245
Finally, in the absence of noise, tick time sampling is also the preferred
scheme: when b = 0, the optimal sampling frequency for both schemes is
k ∗ = k1∗ = 1 so that the MSE of RV in transaction time is
(2 −
/N )
and in tick time
(2 −
/( N )) which is clearly smaller. Also here, the
benefit of sampling in tick time is greater when is small.
1
k−1
1
TSRVk( ) = RVk,j( ) − RV1( ) ,
k j =0 k
N /k
( )
where RVACk,j = i=1
2
ri+j ,k . In our setting, we have
k −1 2N
E TSRV ( )
k =
+ − k b̄ 2 (11)
k k
As expected, the above indicates that while the bias corrections can
work reasonably well in transaction time when ≈ 0, it can produce
poor behaviour in tick time when ≈ −1 and the independent noise
assumption underlying the bias correction is blatantly violated. In a follow-
up article, Aït-Sahalia et al. (2005) modify their estimators to account for
dependent noise by correcting at a lower frequency where dependence in
the noise is weaker. It is unclear how the stronger dependence in tick time
will trade-off against the presumed better performance of subsampling.
An in-depth study of these estimators, together with a more detailed
investigation of the above issues, in the context of the current model are
of interest but beyond the scope of the current article. It would also be
interesting to consider the kernel based approach of Barndorff-Nielsen
et al. (2005) which shares some similarities to the subsampling estimator.
What we can say at this stage, however, is that while RV is best calculated
in tick time, any attempt to bias correct using “second generation” RV
measures is complicated in tick time due to the strong noise dependence.
4. EMPIRICAL ILLUSTRATION
The model developed in this article is primarily designed to enable us
to study the return dynamics in transaction time and tick time. Still, it is
Tick Time or Transaction Time? 247
over the 21 day sample period. The model parameters, i.e., , , 2 , and
1 = E (b), 2 = E (b 2 ), are estimated by fitting the first 10 lags of the
autocovariance function of returns in transaction time and tick time (here
we use returns in basis points for scaling purposes) and the fraction of
ticks.
Table 3 reports the estimated model parameters which all appear
reasonable. It is noted that the probability of an efficient price move, as
well as its variance, is remarkably similar for the two assets. Panels A–D
of Figure 7 show a good fit of the model to the empirical autocovariance
function in tick time but a less impressive fit in transaction time.
Particularly for Intel, the model cannot capture the full return dynamics
on both time scales simultaneously.
In an attempt to resolve this, we consider a Markov chain extension
of our transaction model which introduces dependence in the arrivals of
ticks, i.e., clustering of zero returns and tick returns in the transaction
data. Let St takes the value 1 if we observe a tick at t or 0 if we
observe a zero return. We let the probability of observing a tick at time t ,
given a tick at time t − 1, P (St +1 = 1 | St = 1) = p1 | 1 . Assuming stationarity
of the chain, the other conditional probabilities are defined by p1|1
and , P (St +1 = 0 | St = 1) = 1 − p1|1 , P (St +1 = 1 | St = 0) = (1 − p1|1 ) /(1 −
), P (St =1 = 0 | St = 0) = (1 − 2 + p1|1 )/(1 − ). The estimation of this
model proceeds in exactly the same way as before, albeit that we now
use a Monte Carlo estimate of E (ri,1 rj ,1 ) for the transaction data. The
parameter estimates of p1 | 1 are given in Table 3. The remaining model
parameters remain unchanged. From Panels E and F of Figure 7 it is clear
2 1 2 p1|1
FIGURE 7 Fitted autocovariance function for Intel and Citigroup in transaction and tick time
(October 2004).
that the results are much improved: while the fit in tick time remains
unchanged the extended model can now also capture the large negative
first order autocovariance of returns in transaction time simultaneously. To
gain some intuition, consider the joint probabilities P (St = i, St +1 = j ) =
pij implied by the baseline model and the extended model in Table 4
Tick Time or Transaction Time? 249
Citigroup Intel
Baseline model 0.277 0.249 0.249 0.225 0.014 0.105 0.105 0.776
Extended model 0.327 0.191 0.191 0.291 0.053 0.063 0.063 0.822
5. CONCLUSION
This article develops a new model for transaction prices with which we
analyze the return dynamics of market microstructure noise contaminated
prices in transaction time and tick time. Both the empirical and theoretical
results indicate that returns have a distinctly different autocorrelation
structure in tick time than in transaction time. In particular, we find that
while the noise in transaction time can appear close to IID, in tick time
there is strong dependence in the noise. This has important implications
for the way in which we sample returns for the purpose of realized variance
calculations. We find that for RV, sampling in tick time is generally superior
in that it can lead to a significant reduction in MSE especially when the
level of microstructure noise, number of ticks, or frequency of efficient
price moves is low. However, any attempt to bias correct RV in tick time
would necessarily need to account for strong dependence in the noise.
This therefore rules out the first order bias correction of Zhou (1996),
the bias-corrected subsampling and averaging estimator of Zhang et al.
(2005), and the kernel based RV measure of Barndorff-Nielsen et al.
(2005) as estimators that can be implemented with tick data because their
validity crucially relies on the independent noise assumption. A more in-
depth investigation of this, together with an analysis of the generalized
subsampling estimator of Aït-Sahalia et al. (2005), is beyond the scope of
this article and left for future research.
250 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
APPENDIX
A. MOMENT EXPRESSIONS
For k = E (b k ), = − 2 + 1, and h ≥ 1 we have
2
E ri,k = k 2 + 2 2 − 12 k − 2(1 − )k 2 − 12
4
E ri,k = k 2 + 122 2 + 3k2 2 (k − 1)4
+ 2 1 − (1 − )k 4 + 322 − 8 k − (1 − )k 1 3
2 2
E (ri,k ri+h,k ) = −(h−1)k 1 − k 12 − (1 − )(h−1)k 1 − (1 − )k 2 − 12
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2 2
E ri,k ri+h,k = 4 2 k 2 2 + 42 k 2 − (1 − )k 2 − 12 − 12 k
− 4 k − (1 − )k 1 − (1 − )k 212 2
+ (1 − )(h−1)k 1 (3 − 2 1 )
2
+ 412 k − (1 − )k 12 + (1 − )(h−1)k 2 − 12
2
+ 1 − (1 − )k 422 + (1 − )(h−1)k 4 − 22
The last term equals zero unless we observe no efficient price moves in xi
transaction price moves.
2
E (ri,k | xi ) = 2 xi + 22 − 212 ( − 1)xi
Then, marginalizing over xi , we have obtain the required result. Let j > i,
if xi = 0 or xj = 0, then ri,k rj ,k = 0; otherwise
k
E (ri,k rj ,k ) = E (i−1)k+l + bik sikd − d
b(i−1)k s(i−1)k
l =1
k
× (j −1)k+m + bjk sjkd − b(j −1)k s(jd −1)k
m=1
d
= E bik sikd − b(i−1)k s(i−1)k
d
bjk sjk − b(j −1)k s(jd −1)k
= E (bik bjk )E sikd sjkd − E (bik b(j −1)k )E sikd s(jd −1)k
d
− E b(i−1)k bjk )E (s(i−1)k
d
sjkd + E (b(i−1)k b(j −1)k )E s(i−1)k s(jd −1)k
= E (bik bjk )(1 − )xj +zi:j − E (bik b(j −1)k )(1 − )zi:j
− E (b(i−1)k bjk )(1 − )xi +zi:j +xj + E (b(i−1)k b(j −1)k )(1 − )zi:j +xi ,
j −1
where zi:j = m=i+1 xi . Marginalizing over xi , xj , zi:j leads to
E (ri,k rj ,k ) = 12 E I (xi > 0)I (xj > 0)(1 − )xj +zi:j )
− 2 E (I (zij = 0)I (xi > 0)I (xj > 0))
− 12 E I (xi > 0)I (xj > 0)I (zi:j > 0)(1 − )zi:j
− 12 E I (xi > 0)I (xj > 0)(1 − )xi +zi:j +xj
+ 12 E I (xi > 0)I (xj > 0)(1 − )zi:j +xi
2 2
= −(j −i−1)k 1 − k 12 − (1 − )(j −i−1)k 1 − (1 − )k 2 − 12
Finally,
2
2 2 k
E ri,k rj ,k = E (i−1)k+l + bik sik − b(i−1)k s(i−1)k
d d
l =1
k 2
× (j −1)k+m + bjk sjkd − b(j −1)k s(jd −1)k
m=1
252 J. E. Griffin and R. C. A. Oomen
k 2
k 2
=E (i−1)k+l E (j −1)k+m
l =1 m=1
k 2
+E (i−1)k+l (bjk sjkd − b(j −1)k s(jd −1)k )2
l =1
k 2
2
+E bik sikd − b(i−1)k s(i−1)k
d
(j −1)k+m
m=1
2 d 2
+E bik sikd − b(i−1)k s(i−1)k bjk sjk −
d
b(j −1)k s(jd −1)k
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= 2 4 xi xj + 2 xi 22 − 212 ( − 1)xj + 22 − 212 ( − 1)xi 2 xj
+ 312 + E (b(i−1)k bjk ) − 2E bik2 b(j −1)k 1 ( − 1)xj − 212 2 ( − 1)xi
+ 412 E (bik b(j −1)k )E ( − 1)xi +xj
− 21 E bik b(j2 −1)k E ( − 1)xi − 212 2 E ( − 1)xj
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thank an associate editor, an anonymous
referee, Yacine Aït-Sahalia (discussant), and the participants of the
Econometric Society meetings in Boston for helpful comments and
suggestions.
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