Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Project Report
Project Report
On
Study on Derivatives as an Investment opportunity
Completed At
Cargill India Pvt. Ltd.
By
Kunal Khetarpal
FIB1823 PGDM-IB (2018-20)
Under Joint Supervision of
Miss Shabnam and Mrs. Megha Jain
1
Cargill India Pvt. Ltd.
14th Floor, Bld. 9A, DLF Cyber-city,
Phase 3, Gurgaon, Haryana - 122002
CERTIFICATE
Date:
Megha Jain
SUPERVISOR
Deputy Manager
Origination & Treasury
2
CERTIFICATE
Date:
Miss Shabnam
Faculty Guide
JIMS, Rohini, Sector 5, New Delhi - 85
3
STUDENT’S DECLARATION
Kunal Khetarpal
FIB1823
PGDM-IB (2018-20)
Acknowledgement
4
The satisfaction and euphoria that accompany the successful completion of the
project would be incomplete without the mention of the people who make it
possible.
I would like to take the opportunity to thank and express my deep sense of
gratitude to my corporate mentor Mrs. Megha Jain and my faculty mentor Ms.
Shabnam. I am greatly indebted to both of them for providing their valuable
guidance at all stages of the study, their advice, constructive suggestions, positive
and supportive attitude and continuous encouragement, without which it would
have not been possible to complete the project.
I would also like to thank Mr. Sanjeev Dhawan who in spite of busy schedule has
co-operated with me continuously and indeed, his valuable contribution and
guidance have been certainly indispensable for my project work.
I owe my wholehearted thanks and appreciation to the entire staff of the company
for their cooperation and assistance during the course of my project.
I hope that I can build upon the experience and knowledge that I have gained and
make a valuable contribution towards the industry in coming future.
5
List of Figures
List of Tables
6
S.N. Particulars Page No.
Table of Contents
Page No.
7
Certificate (from the organization) 2
Certificate (from the faculty mentor) 3
Author’s Declaration 4
Acknowledgement 5
List of Figures 6
List of Tables 7
Executive Summary 9
Chapter1: Overview
1.1 Introduction 10
1.2 Overview of the company 11
Chapter 2: Research Methodology
2.1 Objectives and scope 12
2.2 Research design 12
2.3 Sources of data collection 12
2.4 Sampling Design 14
2.4 Limitations of the study 14
Chapter 3: Conceptual Background 14
Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Findings 17
Chapter 5: Discussion and Conclusion 25
Chapter 6: Recommendations 26
Bibliography 27
Annexure 27
Executive Summary
8
The currency derivatives market is the largest asset market in the world, which is larger than the
equity markets and the commodity markets. However, the Indian scenario is different than this.
Currency derivatives market seems to be smaller than the equity markets and the commodity
markets in India.
In this research project we aim to find the reasons as to why Currency derivative market has not
been able to pick up its momentum in India. We have found people’s perspective, thoughts and
the reasons that why they are investing in different asset markets. We tried to explore what are
the constraints for them while investing in these markets, especially the currency derivatives
market. Through this research we also try to recommend some steps that can be taken to boost
the growth of currency derivative markets in India. In this regard we asked the respondents to
rate the steps so that we can know how effective each one would be.
Chapter 1: Overview
9
1.1 Introduction
Derivative trading in India commenced in June 2001 when SEBI approved trading in Index
futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and BSE-30 (Sensex) index and the trading in
options on individual securities started in July 2001. Futures contracts on individual stocks were
started in November 2001.
RBI on April 20, 2007 issued guidelines for the usage of foreign currency forwards, swaps and
options in the OTC market.
In August 2008, RBI and SEBI approved selected exchanges to offer currency trading and issued
guidelines for the same. Over the past year average daily volumes in currency futures have been
increasing rapidly as compared to the equity market.
Recently the United Stock Exchange of India allowed trading in currency derivatives. The
exchange went live at 9 a.m. with trading in four currency pairs allowed by SEBI, involving the
U.S. dollar, the INR, Japan's yen, the British pound and the euro.
The exchange estimated that the 9.9 million contracts that were traded on the first day, worth
roughly $10 billion, witnessed 52 percent share of the market for currency derivatives in India.
The exchange is backed by 21 Indian public sector banks, including Allahabad Bank, Andhra
Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, Canara Bank, Central Bank of
India, Corporation Bank, Dena Bank, IDBI Bank, Indian Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Oriental
Bank of Commerce (OBC) , Punjab and Sind Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of
India(SBI), Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, Union Bank of India, United Bank of India and Vijaya
Bank.
In addition to public sector banks, five private sector banks also have equity participation in
USE; Axis Bank, Federal Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and J&K Bank.
Other investors are Jaypee Capital, MMTC and Indian Potash as well as the Bombay Stock
Exchange.
Cargill provides food, agriculture, financial and industrial products and services to
the world. Together with farmers, customers, governments and communities, it helps
people thrive by applying our insights and over 150 years of experience.
10
It consist of 155,000 employees in 70 countries/regions who are committed to
feeding the world in a responsible way, reducing environmental impact and
improving the communities where we live and work.
In addition to serving customers, Cargill handles its own trade finance and risk mitigation needs.
It also optimize the company’s physical trade flows to create trade finance-generated liquidity in
emerging markets for customers. In carrying out these activities, Cargill is also involved in the
proprietary trading of financial products, foreign exchange, credit and money markets.
11
•To know the percentage of existing traders of currency derivatives or are interested in it
•To find the factors influencing the retail investors for investing in each asset market.
•To understand the reasons why trading in currency derivatives is less popular amongst Indian
retail investors
•To know the factors that would be helpful to boost currency derivative trading in India.
Exploratory research has been adopted here to find out the idea behind the currency derivative
trading pattern & its sensitive influencers.
Primary Data
Convenience sampling was used which is based on the availability and willingness of the
respondents.
12
The questionnaires were made in the google forms to be filled online from finance industry
experts and the people who are into trading or the ones willing to get into trading or otherwise
having good knowledge about financial markets.
Secondary Data
Couple of research papers have also been referred (Anuradha Guru – Forex Derivative
trends, Tulsi Lingareddy – Present state of Forex in India) to collect secondary data
insights from the market data
News video clipping broadcasted on CNBC TV18, on February 14, 2011 on the topic of
Currency Options was also been referred to observe the future possibilities of currency
market in India
A nominal scale chosen to observe the major factors influencing the investors to invest in
the different asset markets
A likert scale labelled from Very Insignificant to Very Significant is chosen to understand
the importance alloted to various factors causing restraints for investors from trading in
currency derivatives, so that we will be able to understand the root causes and the market
awareness levels of respondents
•An interval scale is used as a tool to determine the level of significance alloted to
various reforms that would increase the participation of different investors in currency
derivatives
13
Area: Delhi
Sample Technique: Questionnaire
The behaviour of the respondents while approaching them to fill the questionnaire was
unpredictable.
The research was conducted with limited scope and sample.
Smaller sample does not always give better results. Sample may not be true
representative of the entire population.
There may be some discrepancy due to bias-ness of respondent.
Financial Markets
Financial Market is the market where financial securities like stocks, bonds, commodities like
valuable metals and Foreign Exchange are exchanged at efficient market prices.
Equity Markets
These markets are where shares are issued and traded, either through exchanges or over-the-
counter (OTC) markets.
1. Primary market
2. Secondary market.
The primary market is where new issues are first offered. Any subsequent trading takes place in
the secondary market.
14
Commodity markets
In these markets raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw commodities are traded on
regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in standardized contracts.
The exchange rate is a price - the number of units of one nation’s currency that must be
surrendered in order to acquire one unit of another nation’s currency.
The foreign exchange market or forex market as it is often called is the market in which
currencies are traded. Currency Trading is the world’s largest market consisting of transactions of
almost trillions in daily volume and as investors learn more and become more interested, the
market continues to grow rapidly. In addition to being the largest market in the world, it is also
the most liquid, differentiating it from the other market.
Financial Derivatives
Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables,
called underlying. The underlying asset can be equity, index, foreign exchange (forex),
commodity or any other asset.
15
Types of Derivatives
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives: Contracts that are traded (and privately
negotiated) between two parties directly, without going through an exchange or other
intermediaries. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are
the ones traded in this way.
Currency Derivatives
Currency futures were first created in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Currently, CME offers 41 individual FX futures and 31 options contracts on 19 currencies, all of
this trades electronically on the exchange’s CME Globex platform. It is a largest FX trading
regulated marketplace. The various uses of currency derivatives are:
Hedging: It is the process of locking in the foreign exchange rate today so that the value
of inflow in INR terms is safeguarded. For instance: Entity A is expecting a remittance
for US$ 1000 on 31st March 10. It can remove the currency exchange fluctuation risk by
selling one USD/INR August contract today.
Speculation: If a trader estimates on the direction of the market, that is, he expects the
value of rupee to appreciate or depreciate, he can sell or buy a USD/INR contract and
earn a profit if the market moves in the expected direction.
Arbitrage: Arbitrage is the way of taking benefit of difference in price of the same or
similar product between two or more markets. If the same or similar product is traded in
say two different markets, any entity which has reach of both the markets will be able to
identify price differentials, if any and earn profit of the same.
16
Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Findings
17
Thus we witnessed that the lack of knowledge is the most dominant in case of currency
derivatives
Division of `. 1000 among equity, commodity and currency derivative market:
When asked to divide a sum of Rs1000 and
allocate the same to the given 3 asset markets,
the respondents allocated 62.5% to equity (refer
to Figure.1), 21.65% to commodity market and
a remaining 15.8% to currency derivatives
market.
Figure 1: Share of `.1000 across asset markets
Thus we witnessed that a higher proportion of the allocated amount is invested in equity,
followed by commodity and the least in invested in currency derivatives.
29.3% of the
respondents trade in the
Equity market for the
purpose of hedging.
(Refer to Figure.2)
64.5% are speculators
and invest from
speculation perspective,
Figure 2: Trading strategies of respondents across asset markets only 6% try to
earn profit by means of arbitrage.
31.8% of the respondents trade in the commodity market for the purpose of hedging. 50.6% are
speculators and invest from speculation perspective and 17.6% try to earn profit by means of
arbitrage.
18
39.5% feel they might trade in currency derivatives for the purpose of hedging, 42% will be
speculators and just about 18.5% would try to earn profit through the process of arbitrage.
Thus we witnessed that a higher number of our respondents would trade in currency derivatives
for the purpose of hedging as compared to the equity market and the commodity market.
Percentage of respondents with their driving attributes for trading in different asset
markets: (refer to figure.3)
19
23.2% respondents feel that ‘Returns’ is the driving attribute for trading in currency derivatives,
while according to 23.5% volatility in currency derivatives is what drives them for investment.
17.5% think portfolio diversification is the driving factor while 20.65% were of the opinion that
hedging gives the edge to currency derivatives. 14.8% say they would trade in currency
derivatives to get benefited from arbitrage opportunities.
Thus we witnessed that the driving attribute for the currency market sees a high jump in hedging
when compared to the equity market and the commodity market.
Percentage of respondents with reasons for the lack of interest in currency derivatives:
Looking upon the various reasons (refer to Figure.4) that could influence Indian investors for
lesser investment towards currency derivatives trading, about 70% of the respondents concludes
that the lack of self-knowledge is a significant factor for them, whereas just 14% find it
completely irrelevant.
Figure 4: The significance of factors leading to restrain in currency derivatives trading
Considering the less popularity for currency derivatives among the peers as an attribute, around
65% of the sample population find it to be a significant one, whereas just 14% have voted against
it being a significant reason.
17% of the respondents were of the opinion that the lack of government initiatives is a very
significant factor, whereas just 6% concludes that it is highly insignificant that government
policy can influence the fate of currency derivatives market in India.
20
Thus we witnessed that lack of self -knowledge is the main factor for the lack of interest
among the Indian investors in the currency derivatives market.
Percentage of respondents with the steps they think are most significant to promote
currency derivatives market in India: (refer to Figure.5)
34% and 37% of the respondents feel that improving investor knowledge through media
broadcasts can respectively be a significant and very significant factor for boosting
currency derivatives trading in India.
About 43% of the respondents were of the opinion that Opportunity to trade in non-US
currency futures can boost the currency derivatives market in India, whereas just 20%
feel that it would be an insignificant factor. 36% choose the mid- way.
Relaxation of regulatory framework by SEBI gets well with 41% of the respondents,
whereas 34% remain neutral for this factor. Only a minority would like to disagree with
this .
21
Thus we witnessed that steps to improve investor knowledge through media broadcast can go a
long way to promote currency derivatives trading in India.
Crosstabulation: Feeling about the Market * Driving Factor where survey is done.
Note that 51% respondents were of the opinion thet the returns act as driving factor for
Equity
However, Only 17% were in favour of arbitrage.
Are these differences between region and response likely to be due to chance?
The SPSS output in Table.1 shows the number of responses received for the respective
question in the survey
Cases
Valid Missing Total
N Percent N Percent N Percent
Asset Market * Driving 524 100.0% 0 .0% 524 100.0%
Factor
22
Table 2: Asset Market * Driving Factor Cross-tabulation
Table.2 below shows the difference between expected and observed values for each driving factor across
various asset markets
Driving Factor
Portfolio
Market Diversificati Arbitrag
Return Volatality on Hedging e Total
Asset Currencie Count 36 37 26 33 23 155
Market s % within Asset 23.2% 23.9% 16.8% 21.3% 14.8% 100.0%
Market
Commodit Count 39 39 39 30 15 162
y % within Asset 24.1% 24.1% 24.1% 18.5% 9.3% 100.0%
Market
Equity Count 78 41 59 21 8 207
% within Asset 37.7% 19.8% 28.5% 10.1% 3.9% 100.0%
Market
Total Count 153 117 124 84 46 524
% within Asset 29.2% 22.3% 23.7% 16.0% 8.8% 100.0%
Market
23
Table 3: Chi-Square test results
Asymp. Sig.
Value df (2-sided)
a
Pearson Chi-Square 34.590 8 .000
Likelihood Ratio 35.431 8 .000
Linear-by-Linear 18.521 1 .000
Association
N of Valid Cases 524
a. 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The
minimum expected count is 13.61.
Interpretation of chi-square
The magnitude of the chi-square value should be judged against a table of values of the chi-
square distribution:
One must enter the given table using the appropriate degrees of freedom: calculated
according to the size of the table:
X2 degrees of freedom = df
o = (rows - 1) (columns - 1)
o = (3 - 1) (5 - 1)
o = 2 x 4 = 8.
Given the same degrees of freedom, the greater the chi-square value, the more "significant" it
is.
Since the significance value is 0.000, at the 95% confidence interval, it can be stated that:
A chi-square as large as 34.5 (from Table.3) for 8 degrees of freedom would be estimated by
chance fewer than 1 time in 1000
The mentioned driving factors are significantly dependent on the basis of chosen asset
markets to invest
Findings :
24
Only 9% of investors are already into this trading, while 63% are interested in trading
after performing research
Hedging is considered as a major driving factor for investing in currency markets (21%)
as compared to Equity(10%) & Commodity(18%)
70% of the respondents were of opinion that improving investor’s self-knowledge will
increase the retail participation in Currency derivatives
68% feel that relaxation in the norms of SEBI in terms of lot size and percentage margins
will spurt a rise in currency derivatives trading
After going through the research, the conclusion made by me is that the people are
partially aware about the currency derivative as trading option but are more reluctant
towards equity and commodity market for trading and investment.
Also, we found that returns is the significant attribute for the investors investing in equity
market and arbitrage if the factor that influence the investors for trading in Currency
markets.
Respondents keen interest while investing is towards hedging in each market.
Lack of self-knowledge and govt. initiative are the significant reasons for less popularity
of currency market among potential and existing investors.
To conclude it is seen that, currency market is less popular among the investors as they are not
open to bear the risk of currency fluctuations, also lack of govt. initiatives and self-knowledge
restrain the existing investors and potential investors to trade in currency markets.
Key Learnings:
25
Basic knowledge about the derivatives and how to use them to reduce currency
fluctuation risk.
Before the internship, I was unaware about futures, forwards , swaps etc. So, I got to
know about these types of derivatives used.
Also I get to know about the reconciliation of export with collection received and
issuance of BRC related to exports
I was told a brief about the practical aspect of derivatives trading.
I came to know the corporate culture and environment. How to deal with clients,
teamwork, formal e-mail communication.
Chapter 6: Recommendations
• Government should undertake certain steps to increase liquidity in the market by introducing
various cross-currency pairs as well as more products and by opening doors for other players like
foreign institutional investors to trade in this market
• Improving investor knowledge with the help of web portals, learning documents and media
broadcasts
Bibliography
Annexure
Yes
No, but planning to invest after performing research
Never, What's Currency Derivatives?
2. In which asset markets do you trade?
(Choose all that apply, skip if you do not trade)
* Currencies
27
* Commodities
4.
5. What kind of trader best describes you? *
(Choose the most preferred one for each market, skip if you do not trade)
Hedger Speculator Arbitrager
Currency Derivatives
Equity
Commodity
6. Choose top 3 among the following driving attributes for each asset market: *
(Fill for only those markets in which you trade)
Returns Market volatility Portfolio diversification Hedging Arbitrage
Currency Derivatives
Commodity
Equity
7. * Why do think Indian retail investors are less inclined towards Currency Derivatives trading?
Very Very
Insignificant Neutral Significant
Insignificant Significant
Not enough Self-
Knowledge
Less popular among
peers
Lack of govt. initiatives
8. * How effective would be the following factors to boost Currency Derivatives trading in
India?
(1-Star: Least effective, 5-Star: Highly effective)
Name
28
* Age
Below 25
25 - 30
30 - 35
Above 35
* Present City of living
* Profession
29
30