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FOR GATEWAY FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD

2nd December 2018

CONTENT

F&O

1. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd

2. Repco Home Finance Ltd
3. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd

CASH

❖ VIP Industries Ltd

CURRENCY

❖ USDINR

COMMODITY

❖ Gold

Maxim
If you cant take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.
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ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD

It was a downward sloping consolidation year for the Port Giant
which witnessed more than 43% price erosion in the last 11 months.
On Jan-2018 the counter made an all time high of 452 and since then
witnessing sharp distribution. This November the Scrip posted 21-
month low at 294 and bounced 27% making a high at 374.

Technical Check
Long Term

❖ On the monthly chart the counter has formed a FLAG pattern. Right now the upper trendline of the
Channel is resting near 385-390.

❖ Last month (October) the Scrip formed a Hammer pattern and also bounced from a critical 50
period SMA (319) after a temporary breach.

❖ On the down side 310-290 zone likely to provide strong support as it coincides with historical
demand lines. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is also resting near 310.

❖ This month the rally was supported by strong volume which was much higher than 20-month MA
of 73million.

ADANI PORTS MONTHLY CHART

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Medium Term

❖ The downward sloping trendline which started from Nov-2017 working as a very good resistance.
Right now the break-out point is near 385-390.

❖ 100 and 50-day SMA is resting at 369 and 370 respectively where the price likely to face some
amount of distribution.

❖ The up-move which started from 294 experienced spike in volume however in the last two weeks
the rally continued with diminishing participation. This development may follow minor correction
or consolidation.

❖ On the weekly chart 14 period RSI witnessed breakout from a multi month Trend-Line which is
Bullish for the counter.

ADANI PORTS WEEKLY CHART

Short Term

❖ On the Daily Chart 8-day SMA is working as very good Trend-Line and its current reading is at 365.

❖ The 200 Day SMA at 371 is working as very good resistance point for the stock and in the last 5
sessions several attempts to break it was failed. Today the stock made an unsuccessful attempt to
break the 200 DSMA however managed to close just few paisa above it.
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❖ On the Daily Chart the counter has formed a Bearish Inverted Pattern.

❖ The 14 period Daily RSI is trading near multi week resistance of 70 and in the last trading day
formed a Negative-Hinge.

ADANI PORTS DAILY CHART

Outlook

Despite sharp correction on the Long-Term chart the counter is still in up-trend and as long it is holding
above 290-300 zone long term Bulls will still remain in charge. However fall of 290 will bring massive
distribution and Adani Ports will enter in a long term Bear market.

On the Medium term the counter is in a lower low lower high formation. Till it is trading below 405 this
formation will continue and eventually it will try to break-down below 300. Rally above 405 will again
push it in the Bullish territory. On the weekly chart 370-390 zone will work as the key supply area.

Next week the Scrip may see some amount of distribution in case it starts trading below 364. The fall
may extend towards 357-346 zone. Break out above 270-275 zone may bring levels like 390-405.

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. If starts trading below 365, sell for targets of 357 and 346.

2. Initiate long above 376 for targets of 385 and 400.

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REPCCO HOME FINANCE LTD

It was a bad one and half year for Repco Finance. In the month of June-
2017 the counter made an all time high at 924. However, the later 19
months were quite painful for the share holders as the stock witnessed
more than 68% fall.

Technical Check
Long Term

❖ On the Long-Term Monthly chart the stock made a Bollinger Band M formation and since then
witnessing distribution.

❖ The 20 Month Simple Moving Average was working as beautiful support however post breakdown
the fall was quite steep.

❖ Its been more than 6 years the stock was trading above the middle line of BB yet first time on
October this year it closed below the lower BB line.

❖ The 14 Month RSI also broke down below multi month support strengthening the price correction.

REPCCO HOME MONTHLY CHART

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Medium Term

❖ On THE Weekly chart the Scrip has made a FLAG formation.

❖ The FLAG break-down will happen below 330 while the upper boundary is resting near
430-440.

❖ After prolonged correction the Scrip managed to close near 8-week SMA at 373.

❖ Hammer pattern is visible on the Weekly chart which is a Bullish sign.

REPCCO HOME WEEKLY CHART

Short Term

❖ On the Short-Term Daily chart the counter has formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern which is
strong sign of rebound.

❖ Last days Bullish engulfing was supported by strong volume.

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❖ Failure swing is visible on the Daily Chart. Confirmation will come above 423.

REPCCO HOME DAILY CHART

Outlook

Despite sharp correction on the Long-Term Chart the fall is looking little stretched and minor pull back
very much possible in the coming few weeks.

On the Weekly Chart the stock is in a minor consolidation. The band for the side-ways move is 430-330.
Eventually it is more likely the band will break-down below 330 and the down fall will continue again.

In the next few trading sessions the stock may see 5-10% rally towards 390-395. 378 will work as a
minor resistance on the way.

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. Buy on dips for a target of 390 keep stop below 355.

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ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES LTD

Just like most of its peers the Media giant also witnessed 33% value
destruction yet the intensity of the fall was not that severe. In the last
6 months the counter experienced 33% decline from its May pick of
609.

Technical Check
Long Term

❖ On the Monthly Chart post BB-W formation the fall started and extended.

❖ Last October for the first time in six years the counter closed below the lower BB.

❖ For many years the 20 Month SMA was working as strong Trend-Line. The line was breached last
August at 530 while the current reading is at 532.

❖ The 14 Month RSI also crashed below multi month support solidifying the weak picture.

ZEEL MONTHLY CHART

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Medium Term

❖ Break-Out happened from an 8-week Double-Bottom pattern at 480.

❖ Last week closed above prominent 200- and 21-week Moving Averages near 470-473 which is very
Bullish in the Medium-Term.

ZEEL WEEKLY CHART

Short Term

❖ Ascending-Triangle break-out happened at 480.

❖ 21 Day SMA which was working as good trendline resting at 481.

❖ Despite strength on different timeframes two consecutive INVERTED HAMMER candlestick

patterns on the Daily-Chart could spoil the party in the short-term.

❖ The break-out happened with insignificant volume which weakens the rally.

Outlook

Despite sharp correction on the Long-Term Chart the fall is looking little stretched and minor pull back
very much possible in the coming few weeks.
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On the Weekly Chart the stock is in a minor consolidation. The band for the side-ways move is 430-330.
Eventually it is more likely the band will break-down below 330 and the down fall will continue again.

In the next few trading sessions the stock may see 5-10% rally towards 390-395. 378 will work as a
minor resistance on the way.

ZEEL DAILY CHART

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. Sell on rise (490-495) for a target of 481, 475 and 469. Exit above 498-500.
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VIP INDUSTRIES LTD

After prolonged 3 years of rally the luggage giant witnessed sharp 42%
correction in the month of September. However Investors should also
keep in mind the preceding 824% rally in less that 36 months. Post 2
months of consolidation the counter is again showing some signs of
stability yet the consolidation may continue for some more time.

Technical Check
Long Term

❖ Last September the fall started after making a Bearish Engulfing pattern.

❖ The mind-blowing rally which started in the last quarter of 2016 always followed higher high higher
low pattern so far.

❖ 12-month SMA working as good Trend-Line for the rally.

❖ On the 14-period monthly RSI the rally is looking little exhausted.

VIP MONTHLY CHART

Medium Term

❖ After witnessing minor side-ways move the counter broke-out above the 20-day SMA.
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❖ The fall which started in the month of September bottomed out exactly at the 50%
retracement level (115-647).

VIP WEEKLY CHART

Short Term

❖ Symmetrical Tringle pattern break-out happened in the first part of November.

❖ The break-out coincided with upward penetration of 100-day SMA which was acting as a pretty
good resistance.

❖ The up-ward sloping RSI is in complete agreement with the price.

❖ After many months the Scrip closed above the upper boundary of BB.

Outlook
On the Long- and Medium-term chart the counter is showing signs of recovery and the pullback may
continue for some more time towards 550-560 zone. Till the counter is holding 450 Long term Investors
are pretty much safe.
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On the Daily chart post the Triangle break-out Traders may expect another 5-10% rally in the next few
trading sessions.

VIP DAILY CHART

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. Buy on dips till the counter is holding 485 for targets of 550-560 and 585.
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USDINR
Backed by 35% crash In the Crude-Oil Indian Rupee witnessed massive 6.5% rally in the last 8 weeks. In
November Strong foreign flow in the Domestic Equity and Debt markets supported the fact FII’s are again
in shopping mood. At this point Crude-Oil price and the interest rate in the U.S. will work as the key
decisive factors for the Indian Rupee. As long Crude is trading near 50 mark and U.S. govt not coming out
with a new trade war the pair is likely to trade stable having strong support near 68.50-69.00 mark.
However Slowing GDP growth to 7.1% in the second quarter and a nasty surprise in the domestic state
elections may dampen the mood for the currency.

Technical Check
Long Term

❖ After prolonged 9 months rally in November the pair witnessed strong distribution creating a
long Japanese Marubozu which is negative in nature.

❖ Rally started post break-out above rounding bottom saucer formations.

❖ The 50% retracement level of the whole move of (63.25-74.50) is resting near 68.75, price wise
which is also a good resistance point.

❖ Last month the counter closed exactly near the 8-period moving average at 69.75.

USDINR MONTHLY CHART

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Medium Term

❖ Declining for the last 8 consecutive week.

❖ Fall started post break-down below 8-week SMA. Earlier it was working as a good Trend-Line.

USDINR WEEKLY CHART

Short Term

❖ 8 Day SMA is working as strong resistance which is currently resting at 70.50.

❖ Current value of 200 Day SMA is near 69.00.

❖ During the fall the whole time USDINR touched the lower boundary of BB which shows the
severity of the crash.

❖ The 14 Day RSI is trading near highly oversold zone of 20 and a minor bounce from here is very
much possible.

Outlook
Despite steep fall on the monthly and weekly chart the decline is losing steam and likely to take support
near 68.50-69.00 zone. In case the counter holds 68.50 the following month may bring consolidation
with mild upward pullback. However, fall of 68.50 will put the whole rally in question and slip towards
65-63.50 zone may happen in the coming couple of months.
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After prolonged 8 weeks of fall this week could be a bounce week for the pair yet before the bounce
we may see another 1-2% fall in the currency.

On the Daily chart the counter likely to see support near the 200 Day SMA of 69.00. The 50%
retracement level (64.45-63.50) of the whole up move is also resting near 68.50. In the short-term the
oscillators are also signalling minor short covering.

USDINR DAILY CHART

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. Buy with strict stop below 68.00 for targets of 70.50 and 71.25.
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GOLD
Last week Gold traded steady with minor loss as the Dollar index rallied above 97 and minutes from the US
Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated an imminent rate hike. However statement from Chairman
Jerome Powell earlier last week stating the rates are “just below” estimates of the neutral level only meant
a Dovish view by the fed which signifies a slower expected rate hike in the coming year. A slower rate hike
could again bring back the lost shine in Gold and the counter may start a new trend after prolonged 2 years
of consolidation.

The G20 meeting outcomes may also influence the price as the U.S. and Chinese leaders likely to make
some decisions on trade-war. The yellow-metal is in a tight trading range and likely to break out soon in
either direction.

Technical Check
❖ On the Long-Term monthly chart trading flat for many months creating a BOLLINGER-BAND
SQUEEZE.

❖ The 8 Month SMA is working as minor signal provider.

❖ On the daily chart 1235-1245 zone is working as decision making area. Break-out above this
zone may bring good amount of rally in the counter.

❖ On the down-side 1215 will work as the key support area. Below this mark the precious metal
may see another 2-3% fall.

GOLD MONTHLY CHART

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Outlook

For many months the metal is trading in a tight range creating a 180-point band. Pretty soon we may
see returned volatility in the counter and formation of a new trend.

On the short-term daily chart the trading band is 1245-1215. Penetration below or above may bring
strong move in the counter.

GOLD MONTHLY CHART

Strategy (Only for next week)

1. Buy above 1245 for targets of 1260-1270. Place stop below 1235.