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Tugas Nilai Intrinsik - Septian Yudhianto
Tugas Nilai Intrinsik - Septian Yudhianto
Historical Figures
2018 2017 2016 2015
Revenues 15,655,499,866,493.00 15,156,178,074,776.00 11,063,942,850,707.00 9,389,570,098,578.00
Cost of Revenues 13,148,896,372,495.00 13,098,371,731,392.00 9,948,797,443,385.00 8,414,925,778,081.00
Gross Profits 2,506,603,493,998.00 2,057,806,343,384.00 1,115,145,407,322.00 974,644,320,497.00
A-1/19
Historical Figures
2018 2017 2016 2015
Total 645,029,449,105.00 517,059,848,207.00 315,107,783,135.00 465,025,548,005.00
A-2/19
A (PERSERO) Tbk DAN ENTITAS ANAK
RUGI KOMPREHENSIF KONSOLIDASIAN
PADA 31 DESEMBER 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, DAN 2014
(356,174,876,057.00)
642,026,691,269.00
82,857,220,123.00
(136,530,244,593.00)
11,202,923,560.00
599,556,590,359.00
(267,896,083,942.00)
331,660,506,417.00
(27,309,269,570.00)
-
(40,519,392.00)
304,310,717,455.00
329,075,308,116.00
2,585,198,301.00
A-3/19
Historical Figures
2014
331,660,506,417.00
301,725,519,156.00
2,585,198,301.00
304,310,717,457.00
182.69
1,801,320,000.00
A-4/19
PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) Tbk DAN ENTITAS ANAK
LAPORAN POSISI KEUANGAN KONSOLIDASIAN
PER 31 DESEMBER 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, DAN 2014
Historical Figures
2018 2017 2016 2015
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 3,263,036,627,238.00 4,131,173,781,445.00 3,364,910,489,288.00 4,317,347,903,384.00
Accounts Receivable 3,354,528,145,868.00 2,922,807,904,442.00 2,906,997,989,330.00 2,231,747,915,506.00
Retention Receivables 743,094,487,822.00 816,411,246,367.00 1,064,030,808,014.00 1,079,643,851,019.00
Gross Amount Due from Customers 11,253,836,161,223.00 11,327,640,638,767.00 5,831,056,622,974.00 3,093,132,927,328.00
Other Receivables 12,397,650,655.00 13,080,000,000.00 - -
Inventories 4,360,890,510,200.00 3,683,144,505,036.00 131,016,052,721.00 162,650,778,629.00
Advance Payments 586,690,084,633.00 391,835,973,451.00 192,951,529,361.00 175,336,623,395.00
Prepaid Expenses 251,283,248,569.00 276,734,423,671.00 338,921,423,028.00 1,216,509,049,102.00
Prepaid Taxes 1,371,857,439,976.00 867,955,062,008.00 751,956,201,422.00 857,435,799,861.00
Other Current Assets 231,929,811,382.00 386,887,665,892.00 2,253,566,958,930.00 1,557,347,649,217.00
Total Current Assets 25,429,544,167,566.00 24,817,671,201,079.00 16,835,408,075,068.00 14,691,152,497,441.00
Non-Current Assets
Aset Pajak Tangguhan - - - -
Other Long-Term Receivables 7,155,828,697.00 5,460,676,079.00 20,960,345,041.00 6,396,900,359.00
Real Estate Assets 884,457,636,875.00 712,920,526,677.00 744,015,538,151.00 47,757,602,787.00
Investments in Joint Ventures 636,887,042,364.00 488,811,790,421.00 336,214,193,003.00 368,089,859,107.00
Investments Properties 902,387,115,527.00 354,844,126,484.00 354,541,896,708.00 329,881,126,825.00
Fixed Assets - net 1,573,323,727,930.00 1,520,930,722,412.00 1,459,815,811,733.00 1,099,426,730,319.00
Other Long-Term Investment 315,653,529,650.00 9,054,320,926.00 9,728,937,291.00 31,550,360,000.00
Other Non-Current Assets 369,205,721,273.00 423,254,648,872.00 334,751,162,284.00 186,808,438,041.00
Total Non-Current Assets 4,689,070,602,316.00 3,515,276,811,871.00 3,260,027,884,211.00 2,069,911,017,438.00
B-5/19
Historical Figures
2018 2017 2016 2015
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities 18,964,304,189,855.00 17,633,289,239,294.00 13,044,369,547,114.00 9,414,462,014,334.00
Non-Current Liabilities 4,869,038,683,769.00 4,829,741,347,659.00 1,608,286,449,267.00 2,184,469,703,709.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES 23,833,342,873,624.00 22,463,030,586,953.00 14,652,655,996,381.00 11,598,931,718,043.00
EQUITY
Capital Stock 356,084,937,600.00 356,084,937,600.00 356,084,937,600.00 356,084,937,600.00
Additional Paid-in-Capital 2,588,833,884,853.00 2,588,834,418,817.00 2,588,834,418,817.00 2,587,944,479,627.00
Difference in Transaction with NCI 3,117,842,245.00 3,117,842,245.00 3,117,842,245.00 3,117,842,245.00
Retained Earnings 3,326,448,270,007.00 2,911,208,354,875.00 2,485,218,766,299.00 2,206,679,978,654.00
Equity Attributable to Owners of the Parent 6,274,484,934,705.00 5,859,245,553,537.00 5,433,255,964,961.00 5,153,827,238,126.00
NCI 10,786,961,553.00 10,671,872,460.00 9,523,997,937.00 8,304,558,710.00
TOTAL EQUITY 6,285,271,896,258.00 5,869,917,425,997.00 5,442,779,962,898.00 5,162,131,796,836.00
B-6/19
(PERSERO) Tbk DAN ENTITAS ANAK
OSISI KEUANGAN KONSOLIDASIAN
ER 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, DAN 2014
811,411,723,393.00
1,953,900,412,991.00
941,745,923,565.00
2,617,233,021,628.00
-
132,013,517,468.00
183,607,503,710.00
814,053,429,715.00
622,516,778,227.00
1,089,412,066,524.00
9,165,894,377,221.00
14,733,917.00
36,374,118,437.00
5,132,984,482.00
363,654,939,623.00
356,221,665,867.00
496,095,844,221.00
7,600,000,000.00
27,893,020,506.00
1,292,987,307,053.00
B-7/19
Historical Figures
2014
10,458,881,684,274.00
7,040,618,956,132.00
1,777,482,182,941.00
8,818,101,139,073.00
180,132,000,000.00
50,004,090,079.00
3,117,842,245.00
1,400,567,589,834.00
1,633,821,522,158.00
6,959,023,043.00
1,640,780,545,201.00
10,458,881,684,274.00
B-8/19
VALUATION OF ADHI KARYA COMMON STOCK
(RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL)
Net Income for The Year (NPM x Revenues) 331,660.51 465,025.55 315,107.78 517,059.85 645,029.45 674,877.29 726,842.84
Net Working Capital (Revenue ÷ NWC Turnover) 2,125,275.42 5,276,690.48 3,791,038.53 7,184,381.96 6,465,239.98 6,967,589.12 7,504,093.49
Fixed Assets or Total Non-current Assets (Revenue ÷ FA 1,292,987.31 2,069,911.02 3,260,027.88 3,515,276.81 4,689,070.60 5,053,411.39 5,442,524.07
Turnover)
Total Operating Assets (Sum of NWC and Fixed Assets) 3,418,262.73 7,346,601.50 7,051,066.41 10,699,658.77 11,154,310.58 12,021,000.51 12,946,617.55
Long-term Liabilities (TOA - Total Equity) 1,777,482.18 2,184,469.70 1,608,286.45 4,829,741.35 4,869,038.68 5,247,362.99 5,651,409.94
Total Stockholder's Equity (TOA ÷ TOA/Total Equity) 1,640,780.55 5,162,131.80 5,442,779.96 5,869,917.42 6,285,271.90 6,773,637.53 7,295,207.62
C-9/19
Required Equity Return 11.03% 11.03%
Expected Income 693,265.49 747,132.22
Residual Income (18,388.20) (20,289.38)
Discount Factor 0.9007 0.8112
Harga Saham PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk per 2 Januari 2019 (awal tahun 2019):
Harga Saham PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk per 28 Desember 2018 (akhir tahun 2018):
Harga Saham PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk per 13 Desember 2019:
C-10/19
Notes:
a. Asumsi Revenues Growth untuk tahun proyeksian 2019 - 2023 dan Terminal Year:
Berdasarkan data historis tahun 2014 - 2018, diketahui bahwa rata-rata Revenues Growth sebesar 10.98%. Angka tersebut menjadi dasar perhitungan proyeksi Revenues Growt
2023 setelah dikurangi dengan proyeksi tingkat inflasi per tahun sebagai berikut:
2019: 10.98% - 3.21% = 7.77%
2020: 10.98% - 3.28% = 7.70%
2021: 10.98% - 3.13% = 7.85%
2022: 10.98% - 3.06% = 7.92%
2023: 10.98% - 2.99% = 7.99%
Revenues Growth tahun-tahun berikutnya diasumsikan hanya sebesar tingkat inflasi yang diprediksikan terkendali pada angka sebesar 3%
Data Inflasi: https://www.statista.com/statistics/320156/inflation-rate-in-indonesia/, diakses 2 Desember 2019.
e. Asumsi Total Operating Assets/Total equity untuk tahun proyeksian 2019 - 2024:
Berdasarkan data historis tahun 2018, Total Operating Assets/Total equity sebesar 1.77. Dengan demikian, untuk tahun 2019 - 2024 diasumsikan sama dengan tahun 2018.
g. Expected Income
dihitung dengan menggunakan rumus: Required Equity Return x Beginning Equity pada tahun berkenaan (atau Ending Equity tahun sebelumnya).
C-11/19
h. Residual Income
dihitung dengan menggunakan rumus: Net Income for The Year - Expected Income pada tahun berkenaan.
i. Discount Factor
dihitung dengan menggunakan rumus: 1 ÷ (1 + k)nt , dengan k adalah cost of equity dan nt adalah tahun berkenaan (tahun ke-t). Misalnya, untuk tahun 2019 dihitung sebagai tah
0.9007
C-12/19
n. Value of Equity
dihitung dengan menjumlahkan Cummulative Present Value of Residual Income, Terminal Value of Residual Income, dan Beginning Book Value of Equity.
C-13/19
HI KARYA COMMON STOCK
L INCOME MODEL)
TERMINAL
FORECAST HORIZON YEAR Notes
2021 2022 2023 2024
7.85% 7.92% 7.99% 3.00% a.
4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% b.
2.42 2.42 2.42 2.42 c.
3.34 3.34 3.34 3.34 d.
1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 e.
11.03% f.
C-14/19
11.03% 11.03% 11.03% 11.03%
804,661.40 867,827.32 936,559.24 1,011,390.33 g.
(20,761.40) (21,842.44) (22,980.17) (70,403.88) h.
0.7306 0.6580 0.5927 i.
1,635.00
1,585.00
1,225.00
C-15/19
sebut menjadi dasar perhitungan proyeksi Revenues Growth untuk 2019 - 2023. Dengan demikian proyeksi Revenues Growth 2019 -
da angka sebesar 3%
2019 - 2024 diproyeksikan tidak akan jauh dari angka tersebut, yakni sebesar 4.00%.
C-16/19
ahun ke-t). Misalnya, untuk tahun 2019 dihitung sebagai tahun ke-1, berarti perhitungan discount factor-nya adalah 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1103)1 =
ar) - (1 + k)nt.akhir}, dengan k adalah cost of equity, nt.akhir adalah tahun proyeksi terakhir sebelum terminal year (dalam perhitungan ini,
(dalam jutaan): -Rp70,403.88 ÷ {(0.1103 - 0.03) - (1 + 0.1103) 5} = - Rp519,612.22
C-17/19
dan Beginning Book Value of Equity.
C-18/19
LAMPIRAN-LAMPIRAN