DECSC 23: INTRODUCTION

TO DECISION-MAKING
AND DECISION SCIENCE
IMMANUEL GABRIEL M. SIN

FEBRUARY 12, 2019

 SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW

+
Behavior Over Time

Problem B Fix
Symptom

-
Delay

+ +
R Time

Unintended
Consequences
 SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW

• Example: In order to fix a squeaky wheel, someone who knows

nothing about mechanics uses water. Temporarily the squeaking
will stop, but it will eventually become louder due to rust.
SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW

Goal Pressure to
B
Lower Goal

+
+ Goal

Gap
Time
+
-

B
Actual Corrective Action

Delay
 SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW

• Example: If you put a frog in boiling water, it will hop out

immediately. If you put a frog in cool water and slowly bring the
water to boil, the frog will unwittingly enjoy its last warm bath.
SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW
 SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
REVIEW

• Example: At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign,

significant gains in quality and productivity were achieved.
However, the succeeding waves of improvements are not easy as
the level of improvements begins to plateau. Later the lack of
organization-wide support leads to diminishing quality and
productivity of the organization as a whole.
VENSIM
CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS
EXAMPLES