Energy

Energy Technology Perspectives:
Technology Perspectives:
Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Systems

, th of June 2016
Madrid, 27

Kamel Ben Naceur
Director 
Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks
International Energy Agency 

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Context 

„ First clear signs of decoupling of CO
g p g 2 emissions and GDP
¾ Global energy‐related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2015 for 
the second year in a row 

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Global energy emissions ‐ peaked?
Global energy‐related CO2 emissions

Gt 35
Global economic 
30 downturn 
Dissolution of
25 Soviet Union
Second
oil shock
20

15

10

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IEA analysis for 2015 shows renewables surge, led by wind, and improvements 
IEA l i f 2015 h bl l db i d di
in energy efficiency were key to keeping emissions flat for a second year in a row
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Context 

„ First clear signs of decoupling of CO
g p g 2 emissions and GDP
¾ Global energy‐related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2015 for 
the second year in a row 
¾ Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW 
installed in 2015

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Renewable Energy deployment prospects 
improving
p g around COP 21

World renewable power annual capacity additions, main vs. accelerated case
180
Historical Accelerated
Post COP21
160
140
120
100
GW
W

80
60
40
20
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Japan EU-28 Other OECD India China Brazil Other non-OECD
MTRMR 2015-Main case October 2015 Post- COP21 March 2016

With recent policy changes, 35% of gap between main and accelerated case is bridged
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Context 

„ First clear signs of decoupling of CO
g p g 2 emissions and GDP
¾ Global energy‐related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2015 for 
the second year in a row 
¾ Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW 
installed in 2015
„ COP21 provided a historic push for clean energy
¾ Start of a new era of collaboration: Country‐based approaches  
f f y pp
preferred to top‐down regulation
¾ New goals put forward – going beyond what everyone already 
considered challenging when our first ETP was released in 2006 
„ Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential  
g g g
to meet ambitious climate goals
© OECD/IEA 2016
The scale of the challenge
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions 
45
4DS
40 Renewables 32%

35 Energy efficiency 32%
30
Fuel switching 10%
CO2

25
GtC

20 Nuclear 11%

15
2DS CCS 15%
10
5
0
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two‐thirds 
y f g y y
through a diversified energy technology mix
© OECD/IEA 2016
Pre‐COP21: Pathway to 2 Degree 

Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions 
6DS to 2DS
60
6DS
50 End‐use efficiency 38%

40 End‐use
End use fuel switching 10%
fuel switching 10%
GtCO2

Renewables 32%
30
CCS 12%
20 Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 1%
2DS
10 Nuclear 7%

0
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Transformation Renewables

Buildings CCS

Transport Fuel switching

Industry Energy efficiency

Power Nuclear

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

GtCO2

© OECD/IEA 2016
 All sectors are needed
60
6DS
Buildings 14%
50
Transport 18%
40
Industry 23%
GtCO2

30
Power 39%
20
Other 6%
2DS
10

0
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

End‐use sectors and supply‐side sectors provide each around half of the 
End use sectors and supply side sectors provide each around half of the
cumulative reductions between the 6DS and 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2016
 The transition to a 2‐Degree world 
requires an exceptional effort
requires an exceptional effort
Global primary energy demand
300

250
2013

200

6DS 2050
EJJ

150

4DS 2050
100

50 2DS 2050

0
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and  Other 
waste renewables

Share of fossil fuels in primary energy is in the 2DS with 45% almost halved 
Share of fossil fuels in primary energy is in the 2DS with 45% almost halved
by 2050 compared to today (81%), biomass becomes the largest energy 
source in 2050 in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Progress in clean energy needs to 
Progress in clean energy needs to 
accelerate 
l t
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
Electric vehicles   
l i hi l
Solar PV and onshore wind   
Other renewable power   
p
Nuclear   
More efficient coal‐fired power   
C b
Carbon capture and storage   
t d t
Biofuels   
Transport  
Industry  
Buildings   
Appliances and lighting
Appliances and lighting  
Energy storage  
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C 
goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Wind and PV 
Downward price trends continuing rapidly
Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned over 2016-2019
140
Jordan
India India
120

South Africa Germanyy

100
Uruguay France Germany
Chile
South Africa Brazil
Jordan
USD/MWh (nnominal)

80
USA South Africa India
UAE Australia
60
Canada Chile Peru
Brazil Brazil
South Africa Brazil
40
USA Egypt
Morocco Peru
20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Solar PV Wind onshore

Best results occur where price competition, long‐term contracts and good resource 
availability are combined
© OECD/IEA 2016
 The world’s population is becoming 
increasingly urbanized
increasingly urbanized

10,0 100% 4 100%

7,5 75% 3 75%

Billions

5,0 50% 2 50%

2,5 25% 1 25%

00
0,0 0% 0 0%
2013 2050 2013 2050 2013 2050 2013 2050 2013 2050 2013 2050
World China India Africa OECD Other non‐OECD

Urban population Non‐urban population Urban share of population

By 2050, two‐thirds of the world’s population will live in urban areas, with the 
greatest growth in China, India, Africa and non‐OECD economies in other regions

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Urban areas dominate global energy 
and CO2 emissions
and CO

Primary energy
Global

Direct

Direct
Urban

Direct and
indirect

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

EJ
CO2 emissions
Global

Direct
G

Direct
Urban

Direct and
indirect

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GtC02

In 2013, the world’s urban areas accounted for the majority of primary energy use 
(64%) and energy‐related CO2 emissions (70%)

© OECD/IEA 2016
Cities in emerging/developing economies 
will be critical
will be critical 
Final energy demand in the 4DS
600

500

Urban – Emerging/developing
400 Urban non-OECD
Urban ‐ World
300
EJ

Urban –OECD
Urban Developed  economies
Urban OECD
200

100 Non‐Urban – World

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Two‐thirds of the growth in global energy demand to 2050 comes from cities in 
f g g gy f
emerging and developing economies

© OECD/IEA 2016
Cities are key to carbon abatement
Impacts to global cumulative CO2 reductions 
50
Power & heat
40
Non 
Non  urban Industry
30
Gt CO2

urban
20 Non  Transport
urban
Urban Urban Non
10 urban
Buildings
uildings
Urban
0
CO2 4DS 
CO2 Urban 
CO2 Non‐urban 
CO2 2DS
CO2
reductions reductions 
2014 2050

Cities represent 70%  of the cost‐effective CO2 abatement 
potential by 2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Passenger transport activity in 2015
Mode matters
Mode matters
National Passenger transport activity (pkm) in 2015, by mode

5.5 trllion
pkm
EU Nordic
N di
Russia 1 trllion 3 trllion
Canada pkm pkm
United Kingdom
Germany China
France
Korea
Italy
United States Japan
Middle East

Other Africa India

Mexico
ASEAN

Other Latin America
2‐wheelers
3‐wheelers Brazil
Small and medium cars Australia and
Large cars New Zealand
Minibuses South Africa
Buses
Rail
Air
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Sustainable urban energy systems 
can improve air quality
can improve air quality
PM10 levels for selected cities by region, 2008‐12
273 286
200

150
PM10 ( µg/m3)

100
WHO air quality guidelines: 
PM10 = 20 µg/m3

50

0
Santiago
n Jose

Teehran

hagen

Belggrade

Kathmandu
Dakar
ouver

Jeddah

mman
Beirut

Singaapore

Ulaanbaatar
Muscat

Kaarachi

oscow
Waarsaw
Bucharest

ngkok

SSeoul

nghai
Hà Noi

Delhi
Montevvideo

Puentee Alto
Rio de Janeiro

Cairo
Doha

ombo
Cape TTown

ngton

Buenos Aires
Caracas

Paris

Rome

nkara

Auckkland
Sofia

ourne
Hirosshima

Dhaka
Port Louis

Liisbon

Manila

Beeijing
Dhabi
Accra

o city
Preetoria

Mexico
A

Shan
D

An
Abu D
Am

R
Vanco

Colo
Washin

Melbo

Ban
B

D
San

Copenh

Mo
Africa Americas Middle East Europe Asia and Oceania

IIn many cities, air pollution levels significantly exceed World Health Organization 
ii i ll i l l i ifi l d W ld H l h O i i
air quality guidelines
Reprinted with permission from WHO (2014) © OECD/IEA 2016
High risk air pollution areas

Mortality rate due to air pollution, 2012
y p ,

Deaths per 100 000 people
High (>100)
g
Medium (50‐100)
Low (0‐50)
Source: World Health Organization

Countries with the largest death toll are China and India, but on a per capita 
Countries with the largest death toll are China and India but on a per capita
basis many countries across Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe are affected
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Technologies

Technologies capable of delivering the changes required by 
g p g g q y
the 2DS scenario can be categorized as follows:
„ Technologies allowing to manage travel demand 
Technologies allowing to manage travel demand
(avoiding travel needs and shifting mobility to the most 
efficient modes) ‐ closely linked to the deployment of 
efficient modes)  closely linked to the deployment of
information and communication technologies (ICT)
„ Technologies improving the energy efficiency of vehicles
Technologies improving the energy efficiency of vehicles
„ Technologies reducing the carbon intensity of fuels

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Policy recommendations
Use a coherent portfolio of instruments
Use a coherent portfolio of instruments

National/Supra‐national policies
National/Supra‐national policies
„ Fuel taxes

„ Removal of fuel subsidies

„ Introduction of CO2 taxation on fuels
„ Fuel economy standards

„ Vehicle taxes, including feebates/bonus
Vehicle taxes, including feebates/bonus‐malus
malus schemes
schemes
„ RD&D support

Local measures
„ Compact city (e.g. densification, integrating land use and transport 
planning, promotion of brownfield development and TOD) 
„ Pricing (congestion charges, tolls parking fees) 
Pricing (congestion charges, tolls parking fees)
„ Regulatory (access & parking restrictions, low emission zones)

„ Public transport investments (e.g. network development, subsidies

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Local policies
Examples of measures already in use
Examples of measures already in use

„ Front runners exist amongst cities
g
„ Effects observed in these cities were instrumental to 
assess the impact of these policies and generalize it in
assess the impact of these policies and generalize it in 
our projections
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Sustainable transport systems: 
a cheaper way to provide service
a cheaper way to provide service
Urban transport investments
8 Vehicles
7 Internal combustion engine

6
Electrified
5
USD  ttrillion

4
Infrastructure
f
3
Parking and road
2

1 Metro and light rail

0
4DS 2DS
2015 2050

IIn the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles 
h 2DS b 2050 billi l i hi l
while public transport travel activity more than doubles
© OECD/IEA 2016
Heating and cooling: 
the elephant in the room
the elephant in the room 
Global urban heating and cooling demand
40

30

Cooling
EJ

20

Heating
10

0
4DS 2DS
2013 2050

Global heating and cooling energy demand in cities can be reduced by 25% without 
compromising thermal comfort, particularly cooling in emerging economies  

© OECD/IEA 2016
 Systems integration: utilising wastes 
and local resources
and local resources
Generation and technical potentials for electricity and heat
from urban energy sources in 2013
Electricity District heat
16 000 6 000

14 000
5 000
12 000
4 000
TWh

10 000

8 000 3 000

6 000
2 000
4 000
1 000
2 000

0 0
Generation Potential Demand Generation Potential Demand

Sewage gas
Sewage gas  Rooftop PV
Rooftop PV  MSW
MSW  Waste water
Waste water Industrial Excess Heat
Industrial Excess Heat

Local and National authorities each have a role to play to ensure the 
p y
urban potential for sustainable energy supply is tapped
© OECD/IEA 2016
Locking‐in sustainable new urban 
infrastructure unlocking existing assets
infrastructure, unlocking existing assets

Urban forms can lock‐in the energy system of cities in either inefficient 
U b f l ki h f i i i i h i ffi i
or sustainable energy use patterns for decades. 
© OECD/IEA 2016
Local and national policies at the core of 
the urban low carbon transition
the urban low‐carbon transition
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
LOCAL POLICY MAKERS NATIONAL POLICY MAKERS
Integrated Land Use and Transport planning Capacity‐building programmes 
for local planners
Education and Awareness Campaigns
Enabling national legislative 
Enforcement of Building Codes
Enforcement of Building Codes frameworks

Increased Investments in Public Transport Funding mechanisms for 
investments in sustainable
investments in sustainable 
energy infrastructure
Sustainability‐oriented municipal utilities
Alignment of regulatory 
Green municipal buildings and transport fleets frameworks with 
technological innovation

Leveraging all solutions to urban energy sustainability requires strong 
Leveraging all solutions to urban energy sustainability requires strong
policy action both at local and national level
© OECD/IEA 2016
 Conclusions

„ COP21 was historic and a catalyst for more innovation, 
COP21 was historic and a catalyst for more innovation,
research and investment in clean energy technologies
„ 2015 saw progress in Solar PV, wind and electric vehicles, but 
2015 saw progress in Solar PV wind and electric vehicles but
others areas such as CCS and biofuels are lagging behind
„ Cities in emerging and developing economies can lead the low‐
Ci i i i dd l i i l d h l
carbon transition while reaping many benefits
„ Efficient heating & cooling systems, better public transport and 
electric vehicles will be critical to decarbonise cities
„ Acting together with industry, national and local governments 
can drive innovation through international co‐operation

© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you

© OECD/IEA 2016